Mortgage Market Update/Purchase and Refinance Mortgage info

Tuesdays bond market has opened well in negative territory following much stronger than expected economic data. Stocks are also contributing to bond pressure this morning with an earnings-related rally. The Dow is currently up 102 points, while the Nasdaq has gained 3 points. The bond market is currently down 14/32 (2.30%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point from Mondays morning pricing.

The Conference Board gave us todays only relevant economic data with the release of their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July. The 10:00 AM ET release revealed a reading of 121.1 that exceeded forecasts of 116.8 and Junes revised 117.3. Analysts were expecting to see a decline in confidence, not a sizable increase. This is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because rising confidence means consumers are more apt to make large purchases that fuel economic growth.

Tomorrow we have several events to watch. They start at 10:00 AM ET when the Commerce Department posts Junes New Home Sales report. This data tracks sales of newly constructed homes, but they make up a much smaller portion of the housing sector than existing home sales. That makes the data less important to the markets than yesterdays Existing Home Sales report. Analysts are expecting to see little change from Mays sales, indicating that the new home portion of the housing sector was flat last month. Favorable news would be a sizable decline in sales.

There are two Treasury auctions that are worth watching this week, one of which is taking place tomorrow. 5-year Treasury Notes are being sold tomorrow while 7-year Notes go Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. On the other hand, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors, bringing more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each auction day, so look for any reaction to come during early afternoon hours tomorrow and Thursday.

Next up is tomorrow?s afternoon adjournment of the FOMC meeting that began today. This is not a meeting that will include economic projections nor will it be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Yellen. The meeting is not expected to yield a change to key interest rates. Many analysts believe the Fed will make their next increase to short-term interest rates later this year, not this week. Anything in the post-meeting statement that either confirms or contradicts that theory will cause volatility in the markets. Also of extreme interest is the Feds plans for their massive balance sheet and when they will start reducing it. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during mid-afternoon hours.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Wednesdays bond market has opened up slightly as traders await this afternoons activities. The major stock indexes are showing sizable gains, pushing the Dow up 117 points while the Nasdaq is up 15 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.32%), but we still should see a slight increase in this mornings mortgage rates due to weakness late yesterday.

Junes New Home Sales report was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning. The Commerce Department announced that sales of newly constructed homes rose 0.8% last month. The percentage increase indicates stronger than expected sales since analysts were calling for no change from Mays level. However, the number of sales matched forecasts. A downward revision to Mays sales created the percentage increase, making the news neutral for bonds and mortgage rates.

We also have two afternoon events taking place today. The 5-year Treasury Note auction is first with results coming at 1:00 PM ET. These types of sales will not directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. On the other hand, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors, bringing more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows translates into lower mortgage rates. If we see a reaction, it will come during early afternoon trading.

That takes us to the FOMC meeting adjournment at 2:00 PM ET. This is not a meeting that will include economic projections or a Fed press conference. It is not expected to yield a change to key interest rates. Many analysts believe the Fed will make their next increase to short-term interest rates later this year, not this week. Anything in the post-meeting statement that either confirms or contradicts that theory will cause volatility in the markets. Also of extreme interest is the Feds plans for their massive balance sheet and when they will start reducing it. This event usually can be a market mover, but unless details on the balance sheet topic are given, I suspect that this particular meeting will not create a great deal of volatility in this afternoons mortgage rates.

Besides the 7-year Note auction, there are two economic reports scheduled for tomorrow. One is much more important than the other. We will address those in this afternoons update shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to the FOMC meeting.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:
This week?s FOMC meeting has adjourned with no change to key short-term interest rates, as was expected. They did address the balance sheet reduction issue by implying that a process to gradually reduce their holdings will start possibly at their next meeting. That is assuming that the economy remains on track.

There really were no major surprises this afternoon. The stock markets are currently off their morning highs, but are still showing solid gains for the day with the Dow up 80 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. Bonds have made more of a move this afternoon, currently up 13/32 (2.28%). This is enough of a change for mortgage rates to improve approximately .125 of a discount point from this morning?s pricing.

Today?s 5-year Treasury Note auction went very well with indicators pointing towards a strong interest in the securities. The FOMC meeting drew more attention in the bond market than this auction, so we did not see much of a reaction to the results. Although, it does allow us to remain optimistic about tomorrow?s 7-year Note sale that has the potential to affect afternoon rates.

The only relevant economic data posted this morning was June?s New Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET this morning. The Commerce Department announced that sales of newly constructed homes rose 0.8% last month. The percentage increase indicates stronger than expected sales since analysts were calling for no change from May?s level. However, the number of sales matched forecasts. A downward revision to May?s sales created the percentage increase, making the news neutral for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow morning has two pieces of economic data being posted at 8:30 AM ET. The more important of the two will be June's Durable Goods Orders from the Commerce Department. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in new orders of 2.9% from May to June. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. A much stronger than expected rise may lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning because it would point towards economic strength. If it reveals a large decline in new orders, mortgage rates should move lower. It should be noted though that this data is known to be extremely volatile from month to month, so a minor difference between forecasts and the actual reading may not move the markets or mortgage rates.

The second release of the morning will be last week's unemployment figures. They are forecasted to show that 240,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week?s 233,000 initial claims. This report usually doesn't cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates unless it shows a significant jump or drop in initial claims for benefits. The higher the number of claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates since rising claims is a sign of employment sector weakness.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Thursdays bond market has opened in negative territory, giving back some of yesterdays late gains. Stocks are showing gains again with the Dow up 69 points and the Nasdaq up 28 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (2.32%), but due to post-FOMC strength yesterday afternoon, we should still see a slight improvement in rates if comparing to Wednesdays morning pricing. If your lender improved pricing yesterday afternoon, you should see a small increase in this mornings rates.

There were two pieces of economic data posted early this morning, one of which is considered to be pretty important to the markets. That was Junes Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM. The Commerce Department announced a jump of 6.5% in new orders for big-ticket products such as airplanes, appliances and electronics. This was much larger than the 2.9% increase that was expected, making the headline number appear to be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. While the spike in new orders is not favorable by any means, a secondary reading that excludes more costly and volatile airplane and transportation-related orders paints a different picture. The ex-transportation reading came in at up 0.2% when forecasts were calling for a 0.5% rise. In other words, the main headline number does not look good for mortgage pricing, but the more stable secondary reading does.

The second release of the morning was last weeks unemployment figures, also at 8:30 AM ET. They showed that 244,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous weeks revised 234,000 initial claims. That makes the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately though, this is only a weekly snapshot and did not have much of an impact on this mornings trading.

We do have one afternoon event to watch today. We will get the results of the todays 7-year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 PM ET. If the sale was met with a good demand, like yesterdays 5-year Note sale was, we may see strength in bonds this afternoon. A lackluster demand for the securities could lead to bond weakness and a slight increase in mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow has three economic reports for the markets to digest, including the highly important preliminary reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. This index is considered to be the benchmark indicator of economic growth or weakness. It is the total of all goods and services that are produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. This reading is arguably the single most important report we get regularly. Current forecasts are estimating that the economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate during the second quarter, rebounding from the first quarter's 1.4% annual rate. A stronger rate of growth should hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates Friday. But a much smaller than expected reading will likely fuel a bond market rally and push mortgage pricing lower since it would indicate the economy was not as strong as many had thought.

Also at 8:30 AM will be the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. This release will give us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see wage inflation concerns rise as employers will need to pass those increases into the pricing of their products and services. That would be bad news for bonds and mortgage shoppers. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.6%.

The weeks calendar closes with Julys University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment just before 10:00 AM ET tomorrow that will help us measure consumer optimism about their own financial situations. This data is considered relevant because rising consumer confidence usually translates into higher levels of spending that adds fuel to economic growth that makes bonds less appealing to investors. Fridays release is an update to the preliminary reading we saw two weeks ago, so unless we see a drastic revision to the preliminary estimate of 93.1, I think the markets will probably shrug off this news.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Fridays bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable economic news. The major stock indexes are posting relatively minor losses with the Dow down 18 points and the Nasdaq down 24 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.30%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates slightly.

The first of this mornings three economic releases was the preliminary reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. The GDP is the total sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It showed that the economy grew at a 2.6% annual rate during the April through June months. This was a jump from the first quarters revised 1.2% rate, but analysts were expecting to see a 2.8% rate of growth. This means that while the economy was stronger than it was during the 1st quarter, it still fell short of expectations. Also, a secondary reading that tracks inflation during the quarter came in much softer than forecasts (up 1.0% vs 1.8%). These readings were good news for bonds and mortgage rates and helped to erase pre-market losses from overnight trading.

Also posted early this morning was the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. It rose 0.5% when analysts were expecting to see a 0.6% rise. This data gives us an indication of wage inflation, so the lower the reading the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates. Todays report was slightly favorable for mortgage rates, but is not considered to be highly important to the markets. Therefore, we have seen little impact on todays mortgage pricing.

The final report of the week was Julys University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET. It came in at 93.4, just a bit higher than the 93.1 from earlier this month. Analysts were expecting to see no change from that preliminary reading, meaning consumer sentiment was slightly stronger than thought this month. Since strengthening confidence usually translates into higher levels of consumer spending, we should consider this news slightly negative for mortgage rates. Fortunately, this is only a moderately important report that showed a slight variance from forecasts.

Next week is pretty busy in terms of relevant economic data scheduled for release. There are reports being posted four of the five days that are expected to have an influence on mortgage pricing. Some of those releases are considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets. There is nothing of relevance set for Monday, so we can expect weekend news and stock movement to have the biggest impact on rates as the week starts. Look for details on next weeks calendar in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Mondays bond market has opened flat with little taking place today to drive trading. Stocks aren?t much of an influence either with the major indexes mixed. The Dow is showing a moderate gain of 63 points while the Nasdaq has lost 24 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (2.29%), but due to a little strength late Friday, we should see a slight improvement in this mornings mortgage rates if comparing to Friday?s early pricing.

Today is the only day of the week that does not have something scheduled for release that has the potential to affect mortgage rates. The rest of the week brings us five pieces of economic data that are worth watching, including two highly important reports.

Junes Personal Income and Outlays data will start this week?s activities at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. This report helps us measure consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. If it shows sizable increases, bond selling could lead to higher mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.3% in income and a 0.1% rise in spending. A larger than expected increase in income means consumers have more money to spend, which is not favorable to bonds because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Ideally, we would like to see declines in spending and income, but the smaller the increase in each, the better the news for mortgage rates.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for July at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives about business conditions during the month and is considered to be of high importance to the markets. A reading above 50.0 means that more surveyed executives felt that business improved last month than those who said it had worsened. Analysts are expecting to see a decline from June's 57.8. Forecasts are calling for a reading of 56.2, meaning manufacturer sentiment slipped last month. That would be favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates as it would indicate weakness in the manufacturing sector. The smaller the reading, the better the news for mortgage rates.

Overall, I am expecting Friday to be the most active day for mortgage rates due to the monthly Employment report being posted, although tomorrow could be pretty busy also. Besides the data we should also watch the major stock indexes for bond and mortgage rates direction. Sizable stock gains should pressure bonds and mortgage pricing. However, if stocks go into selling mode, conditions are right for bonds to benefit, driving mortgage rates lower. It would be wise to maintain contact with your mortgage professional this week if closing soon and still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Got any lenders doing construction loans? Hard money is too pricey for me... Have three Lots owned free and clear.

Mandelon said:

Got any lenders doing construction loans? Hard money is too pricey for me... Have three Lots owned free and clear.

Click to expand...

PM sent Rich.

Tuesdays bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of somewhat favorable economic data. Stock are showing more gains with the Dow up 76 points and the Nasdaq up 12 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32 (2.27%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The first of this mornings two economic reports was Junes Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced that income was unchanged from Mays level and that spending rose 0.1%. The income reading was much lighter than the expected 0.3% increase but spending pegged forecasts. The data indicates consumers did not have as much income to spend as many had thought, making the data slightly positive for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also posted this morning was the Institute for Supply Managements (ISM) manufacturing index for July. The 10:00 ET release revealed a 56.3 reading, coming close to the 56.2 that was expected. More importantly though, it was a decline from June?s 57.8. That indicates fewer manufacturing executives felt business improved last month than did in June. Because that is a sign of manufacturing sector weakness, we can consider the news positive for bonds and mortgage pricing.

Tomorrows sole relevant release will be Julys ADP Employment report before the markets open. It has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs, using their payroll processing clients as a base. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on this weeks calendar. Forecasts show an increase of 187,000 new payrolls. The bond and mortgage markets would prefer to see a smaller increase.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Mondays bond market has opened in negative territory, giving back some of Fridays gains. Stocks are starting the week with modest gains of 5 points in the Dow and 11 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (2.27%), but we still should see a slight improvement in this mornings mortgage rates if comparing to Fridays early pricing due to strength during afternoon trading.

There is nothing of importance set for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of only three pieces of monthly or quarterly economic data, but two of them are considered very important to the financial and mortgage markets. In addition to the economic data, there are two Treasury auctions scheduled that have the potential to influence mortgage rates.

If we see a move in bonds later today, it will likely be a result of stock strength or weakness. Generally speaking, stock strength draws interest away from bonds, causing yields and mortgage rates to move higher. However, when sticks go into selling mode, we often see funds shift into bonds for safety. That drive prices higher (yields lower) and leads to lower mortgage pricing. If the major stock indexes remain near current levels today, there is a strong chance that bonds and mortgage rates will follow suit.

Overall, Thursday or Friday appear to be the best candidates for most active day with the most important reports being released those days. The calmest day for rates will probably be tomorrow, although stocks can change that if they rally or sell-off any day. The week is end-loaded with the most important events coming the latter days and little the early days. However, it still would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future as circumstances can change at any time.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tuesdays bond market has opened down slightly as the markets have little to drive trading either direction. Stocks are following suit, pushing the Dow lower by 13 points while the Nasdaq is down 9 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.26%), but some strength late yesterday should keep this mornings mortgage rates at Mondays morning levels.

Today has nothing of importance scheduled that is likely to affect mortgage rates. We are seeing some pre-auction weakness in bonds, but this should be an uneventful day for the bond market and mortgage rates. If we see an intraday move in rates, it likely will be a result of stock strength or weakness.

Tomorrow has two events we need to watch, but neither are considered highly important. 2nd quarter Employee Productivity and Costs data will be released at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. It will give us an indication of employee output per hour. High levels of productivity are believed to allow the economy to grow without fears of inflation. I don't see this being a big mover of mortgage rates, but it may influence them slightly during morning trading. Analysts have predicted a 0.5% rise in productivity during the second quarter and a 1.5% increase in labor costs. A sizable increase in productivity and a smaller than expected rise in costs could help improve bonds, contributing to slightly lower mortgage rates.

The first of this weeks two mortgage rate-relevant Treasury auctions is tomorrows 10-year Treasury Note sale. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. If the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, indicating that interest in longer-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds is good, the earlier losses are usually recovered after the results are announced. Results of sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET of each auction day. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading tomorrow. However, weak levels of interest could lead to broader selling in the bond market that could push mortgage rates higher.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Wednesdays bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable economic news and early stocks losses. The major stock indexes are showing moderate losses of 62 points in the Dow and 33 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (2.22%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

This mornings sole piece of relevant economic data was the 2nd quarter Employee Productivity and Costs data at 8:30 AM ET. It showed a 0.9% rise in worker productivity and only a 0.6% increase in the Labor Costs index. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.5% increase in productivity and a 1.5% rise in costs. Both readings are favorable for bonds and mortgage rates because higher levels of productivity are believed to allow the economy to grow without fears of inflation. Also, the smaller than expected move in costs indicates wages and benefits are not rising rapidly, helping to keep inflation in check.

Later today, we will get the results of the 10-year Treasury Note auction. It will be followed by a 30-year Bond sale tomorrow. If the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, meaning that interest in longer-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds is good, we could see bonds and possibly mortgage pricing improve during afternoon trading. However, weak levels of interest could lead to broader selling in the bond market that could push mortgage rates higher. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET of each auction day, so any reaction will come during early afternoon hours.

Tomorrow has two pieces of economic data for the markets to digest, both at 8:30 AM ET. One is much more important than the other. The more important release is Julys Producer Price Index (PPI) that will give us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings that analysts follow in this release. They are the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Analysts are predicting an increase of 0.2% in the overall index and a rise of 0.2% in the core data. Stronger than expected readings may raise inflation concerns in the bond market. That would be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market as it erodes the value of a bonds future fixed interest payments. As inflation becomes more of a concern in the markets, bonds become less appealing to investors, leading to falling prices, rising yields and higher mortgage rates.

The second release will be last weeks unemployment figures. They are expected to show that 240,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, unchanged from the previous weeks initial claims. Since rising claims hints at employment sector weakness, the higher the number the better the news it is for mortgage rates. It is worth noting though, that because this is only a weekly report, it likely will have little impact on tomorrows mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Thursdays bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable results in this mornings economic data. Heavy selling in stocks is also contributing to bond gains this morning. The Dow is currently down 143 points while the Nasdaq has lost 83 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32 (2.21%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates slightly if comparing to Wednesdays early pricing. Weakness late yesterday caused some lenders to revise rates upward before the end of the day. If your lender was one that posted an intraday increase, you should see more of an improvement this morning.

Yesterdays 10-year Treasury Note auction did not go overly well. The benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showed there was not a strong interest in the securities. Bonds did not have much of a reaction to the results yesterday, but it does not allow us to be too optimistic about todays 30-year Bond sale. Results of it will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, meaning if there is a reaction to todays auction, it will come during early afternoon trading.

The first of todays two economic releases was Julys Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed a 0.1% decline in both the overall and more important core reading that excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both readings were well below the 0.2% increase that forecasted for each, indicating inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy were softer than many had thought. That makes the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also at 8:30 AM was the release of last weeks unemployment figures. They showed that 244,000 initial claims were made for unemployment benefits last week, up from the previous weeks revised 241,000. Analysts were expecting to see 240,000 initial filings, hinting the employment sector was a bit weaker last week. This is also favorable news for the bond and mortgage market. However, this is only a weekly report, so its impact on todays trading has been minimal.

Tomorrow has only one release that is relevant to mortgage rates- Julys Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET. The CPI is one of the most important reports we see each month as it measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy. As with todays PPI, there are also two readings in the report. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% rise in both. Declines in the readings should lead to lower mortgage rates since it would mean inflation is still not a threat to the economy and another Fed rate hike may come later than sooner. On the other hand, stronger than expected readings will likely lead to an increase in mortgage pricing tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Rates are lower despite the negative information this morning. 4 of my lenders have already reposted lower rates as of 9:23am.


Fridays bond market has opened down slightly despite good news from this mornings sole economic release. Stock are showing gains with the Dow up 42 points and the Nasdaq up 28 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (2.20%), which should keep this mornings mortgage rates close to yesterdays morning levels.

Yesterdays 30-year Treasury Bond auction went pretty smoothly with some of the benchmarks pointing towards a strong demand for the securities. This helped boost bonds a bit during afternoon trading, but I don?t believe we saw many lenders improve pricing as a result. They likely waited to see this mornings data before reacting.

Julys Consumer Price Index (CPI) was today?s only relevant economic data. The 8:30 AM ET release showed a 0.1% increase in both the overall and core readings. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.2% rise in both, making the data favorable as it indicates inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy were softer than many had thought.

Next week brings us the release of several economic reports that may influence mortgage rates, including one very important measurement of consumer spending. In addition to those reports, we also will get the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. Monday has none of these events scheduled, so we can expect weekend news, particularly geopolitical military talk, to drive the markets and mortgage rates as the new week begins. Look for details on next week?s activities in Sunday evening?s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

This week brings us the release of five pieces of monthly economic data with one being considered highly important. In addition to the economic data, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will also be posted. There is nothing of relevance to mortgage rates scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to drive bond trading and mortgage rates until we get to the start of this week's activities.

The first piece of data will be will be July's Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET Tuesday. This highly important report comes from the Commerce Department and will give us a measurement of consumer spending. Consumer level spending figures are extremely relevant to the markets because it makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% increase in sales. Analysts are also calling for a 0.3% rise in sales if more volatile and costly auto transactions are excluded. Larger than expected increases would be considered bad news for bonds and likely lead to an increase in mortgage pricing since it would indicate stronger economic growth.

July's Housing Starts will be released at 8:30 AM ET Wednesday, giving us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. It usually doesn't cause much movement in mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Wednesday's release is expected to show a slight increase in construction starts of new homes last month. The lower the number of starts, the better the news for the bond market, as it would indicate a weaker than expected new home portion of the housing sector.

A second release Wednesday will come during afternoon hours. That is when we will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their release. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation concerns in the economy, economic growth and the Fed's plans for raising short-term interest rates or reducing their balance sheet. Since the minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during mid-afternoon trading. This is one of those events that can cause significant movement in rates after its release or be a non-factor. Therefore, be prepared for a move, but not surprised if the impact on rates is minimal.

Thursday has two pieces of monthly economic data for the markets to watch. The first will be July's Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET that measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.3% increase from June's level. A decline would be considered favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because it would indicate manufacturing sector weakness and broader economic growth would be more difficult if manufacturing activity is slipping.

The Conference Board is a New York-based business research group that will post its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for July late Thursday morning. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months and is considered to be moderately important. A higher than expected reading is bad news for the bond market because it indicates that the economy may be strengthening more than thought. However, a weaker reading means that the economy may not grow as much as predicted, making stocks less appealing to investors. This also eases economic growth concerns in the bond market and could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates Thursday. It is expected to show an increase of 0.3% in the index, indicating moderate economic growth over the next couple of months. It will take a sizable difference between forecasts and its actual reading for this report to noticeably influence mortgage rates.

The last release of the week will come from the University of Michigan late Friday morning. Their Index of Consumer Sentiment for August will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which projects consumer willingness to spend. If a consumer's confidence in their own financial and employment situation is rising, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. But, if they are growing more concerned about their job security or finances, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and therefore, impacts the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 94.0 that would mean confidence was stronger than July's level of 93.4. That would be considered slightly negative news for bonds and mortgage rates. Good news for mortgage shoppers would be a sizable decline in the index.

Overall, Tuesday is likely to be the most active day for mortgage rates due to the Retail Sales data being posted. Tomorrow is the best candidate for least important, but we still could see some movement as a result of this weekend?s news and an early move in stocks.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Mondays bond market has opened in negative territory as stocks start the new week with sizable gains. The Dow is currently up 135 points while the Nasdaq has gained 66 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (2.20%), but due to strength late Friday we still should see a slight improvement in mortgage rates if comparing to Fridays early levels. Some lenders may have improved rates a bit before Fridays close. If yours was one of them, then you likely will see a small increase in this mornings pricing.

There is nothing of importance being released or taking place today that has the potential to affect mortgage rates. The rest of the week brings us the five pieces of monthly economic data with one being considered highly important. In addition to the data, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will also be posted.

The first report will be will be Julys Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. This highly important report comes from the Commerce Department and will give us a measurement of consumer spending. Consumer level spending figures are extremely relevant to the markets because it makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% increase in sales. Analysts are also calling for a 0.3% rise in sales if more volatile and costly auto transactions are excluded. Larger than expected increases would be considered bad news for bonds and likely lead to an increase in mortgage pricing since it would indicate stronger economic growth.

Overall, tomorrow is the best candidate to be the most active day of the week for mortgage rates due to the importance of the sales data. There are no other key pieces of economic data coning this week, but we still could see some movement in rates multiple days. Therefore, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still shorting an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tuesdays bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news. Stocks are not having much of a reaction to the data, pushing the Dow lower by 5 points and the Nasdaq down 10 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (2.25%), which should cause this mornings mortgage rates to be slightly higher than yesterdays early pricing.

The Commerce Department announced early this morning that retail level sales rose 0.6% last month, exceeding forecasts of a 0.3% rise. The report also showed that sales excluding more volatile and costly auto transactions rose 0.5% when analysts were expecting only 0.3%. The readings indicate consumers spent more than thought last month. Because consumer spending makes up a huge part of our economy, the stronger numbers make the report bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has two events scheduled that may influence mortgage rates. The first is Julys Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET, giving us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. It usually doesn't cause much movement in mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Tomorrow's release is expected to show a slight increase in construction starts of new homes last month. The lower the number of starts, the better the news for the bond market, as it would indicate a weaker than expected new home portion of the housing sector.

The second release will come during afternoon hours. That is when we will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their release. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation concerns in the economy, economic growth and the Feds plans for raising short-term interest rates or reducing their balance sheet. Since the minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during mid-afternoon trading. This is one of those events that can cause significant movement in rates after its release or be a non-factor. Therefore, be prepared for a move, but not surprised if the impact on rates is minimal.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Wednesdays bond market has opened relatively flat despite favorable economic data. The major stock indexes are showing strength, possibly preventing further gains in bonds. The Dow is currently up 67 points while the Nasdaq has gained 8 points. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (2.26%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at yesterdays levels.

Julys Housing Starts was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 4.8% decline in new home groundbreakings. That was much weaker than forecasts, hinting at weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector. Even a secondary reading that tracks new construction permits that helps us measure future starts came in much lighter than expectations. Those readings make the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this report does not carry a high level of importance, meaning it has had a limited impact on this mornings rates.

We also have the minutes from the last FOMC meeting to watch for later today. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their release. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation concerns in the economy, economic growth and the Feds plans for raising short-term interest rates or reducing their balance sheet. Since the minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during mid-afternoon trading. This is one of those events that can cause significant movement in rates after its release or be a non-factor. Therefore, be prepared for a move, but not surprised if the impact on rates is minimal.

Tomorrow has three pieces of economic data that may affect mortgage rates, but none of them are considered to be highly important. The first will come at 8:30 AM ET when last weeks unemployment figures are released. They are expected to show that 240,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week?s 244,000 initial claims. Since rising claims hints at employment sector weakness, the higher the number the better the news it is for mortgage rates. However, because this is only a weekly report, it likely will have little influence on tomorrows mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance.

The second will be Julys Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET that measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.3% increase from June's level. A decline would be considered favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because it would indicate manufacturing sector weakness and broader economic growth would be more difficult if manufacturing activity is slipping.

The final report of the day will come from the Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group. They will post their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for July at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months and is considered to be moderately important. A higher than expected reading is bad news for the bond market because it indicates that the economy may be strengthening more than thought. However, a weaker reading means that the economy may not grow as much as predicted, making stocks less appealing to investors. This also eases economic growth concerns in the bond market and could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates. It is expected to show an increase of 0.3% in the index, pointing towards moderate economic growth over the next couple of months. It will take a sizable difference between forecasts and its actual reading for this report to noticeably influence mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Thursdays bond market has opened flat again following mixed economic news. The major stock indexes are showing noticeable losses of 87 points in the Dow and 29 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (2.22%), but strength late yesterday should cause this mornings mortgage rates to be slightly better than Wednesdays morning pricing.

Yesterdays afternoon release of the FOMC minutes did give us a little surprise. The biggest point taken from them was that the Fed appears to be much more divided on when and if another rate hike should be made. The fact inflation is lagging well below the Feds preferred annual rate of 2.0% has some Fed members questioning if a move should be made. The other side of the debate is that when inflation does rise to expectations, waiting too long to raise rates could be detrimental to the economy. This was good news for bonds and mortgage rates as FOMC rate increases tend to be taken as a sign of economic strength that hurts bonds prices and drives mortgage rates higher. As one would expect, the news did cause bonds to improve late yesterday, leading to many lenders improving pricing slightly before the end of the day.

The first of this mornings three economic reports was last weeks unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They revealed that 232,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous week?s 244,000 initial filings and lower than the 240,000 that was forecasted. Because falling claims hints at a strengthening employment sector, this was bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. Fortunately, it is only a weekly report, so its impact on todays trading has been minimal.

Julys Industrial Production report was posted at 9:15 AM ET, showing a 0.2% rise in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. That was slightly weaker than the 0.3% increase that was expected, meaning the manufacturing sector may not be as strong as thought. However, since this is only a moderately important report with a slight variance, we haven?t seen much of a reaction to its results.

The final report of the day was Julys Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board. They announced a 0.3% rise in the LEI, matching forecasts. The increase means they are predicting slight economic growth over the next several months. As with today?s other data, we have not seen a reaction to this report.

Tomorrow has only one economic report that we will be watching and it is also considered to be moderately important. The University of Michigan will post their Index of Consumer Sentiment for August late tomorrow morning. It will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which projects consumer willingness to spend. If a consumers confidence in their own financial and employment situation is rising, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. But, if they are growing more concerned about their job security or finances, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and therefore, impacts the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 94.0 that would mean confidence was stronger than Julys level of 93.4. That would be considered slightly negative news for bonds and mortgage rates. Good news for mortgage shoppers would be a sizable decline in the index.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Fridays bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected economic data (equals lower rates today). Another round of stock selling is helping to boost bonds during early trading. The Dow is currently down 53 points while the Nasdaq has lost 6 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (2.17%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates slightly.

We saw bond prices rise and yields drop as stocks slid yesterday afternoon. The terror events in Spain contributed to the stock selling yesterday, leading funds to shift into bonds. That caused many lenders to improve rates slightly intraday Thursday. If your lender did improve rates before closing, you likely will see little change in this mornings pricing.

Todays sole relevant economic data was Julys Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan at 10:00 AM ET. It came in at 97.6, much higher than the 94.0 that was expected. It was also a noticeable increase from June?s final reading of 93.4. That means surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. Because rising confidence usually translates into stronger levels of consumer spending that fuels economic growth, we should consider this data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Next week brings us the release of only a couple of economic reports that may influence mortgage rates. The biggest event of the week may end up being the annual Jackson Hole Fed conference the latter days. Monday has nothing of importance scheduled, so we can expect weekend news and stock movement to drive bonds and mortgage rates as the week starts. Look for details on all of next weeks activities in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Mondays bond market has opened in positive territory even though there is nothing to drive trading today. Stocks may be helping by showing relatively minor losses to start the week. The Dow is currently down 47 points while the Nasdaq has lost 10 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (2.18%), but weakness mid-day Friday should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at Fridays morning levels. If your lender revised pricing higher intraday Friday, you should see a slight improvement in this mornings rates.

Today has nothing scheduled that is relevant to the bond market or mortgage rates. The rest of the week brings us the release of only three pieces of economic data that may influence mortgage rates in addition to the annual Jackson Hole Fed conference. There is nothing of importance set for tomorrow either, but there is at least one event or report scheduled every other day of the week. Only one of the reports can be considered very important. As a result, it is likely that we will see the most movement in rates later in the week.

Also worth noting is the annual central banker conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. There have been major events to come out of this event in the past while others have been non-factors. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak this year, so all eyes will be on her speech at 10:00 AM Friday. The conference runs Thursday through Saturday, so we could still see the markets react to something from this event. Any impact on trading or mortgage rates will happen Thursday or Friday.

Overall, I am expecting to see the most movement in rates Friday with the weeks most important release and a speaking engagement from Fed Chair Janet Yellen both scheduled. We need to watch the stock markets for rate direction also as significant selling in them could help bring funds into bonds. Generally speaking, stock strength often hurts the bond market while stock losses make bonds more appealing to investors. Therefore, please proceed cautiously and keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

FYI...we are now providing unbelievably low wholesale rates (not hard money) for New Construction and Fix and Flip financing in addition to our unbeatable, low residential rates. This is a great program to provide financing for the novice OR experienced real estate investors and to free up liquidity. PM me for details.

Tuesdays bond market has opened in negative territory with little to drive trading besides stock movement. The major stock indexes are in rally mode with the Dow up 119 points and the Nasdaq up 57 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (2.20%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is nothing of importance set for today, so if we see an intraday change in mortgage pricing, it likely will be a result of a move in stocks. If stocks extend their current gains, pressure in bonds could lead to an upward revision in mortgage rates before the end of the day. On the other hand, if the major indexes give back a good part of this mornings early move, bonds may improve and mortgage rates will probably follow suit.

Julys New Home Sales data is the first economic report of the week, coming tomorrow morning at 10:00 AM ET. This report will give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but tracks only a small portion of all home sales. The majority of U.S. home sales are covered in the upcoming Existing Home Sales report. This data usually doesn't have much of an impact on bond prices or mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a small increase in sales of newly constructed homes from June to July. A large increase in sales would indicate housing sector strength, making the data negative for mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Good day to lock your rates today


Wednesdays bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of much weaker than expected housing data. Stocks are showing moderate losses during early trading, pushing the Dow lower by 51 points and the Nasdaq lower 15 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (2.18%), which should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by slightly less than .125 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department announced this morning that sales of newly constructed homes fell 9.4% last month, reaching their lowest level in 7 months. Analysts were expecting to see a small increase in sales, meaning that the new home portion of the housing sector was much softer than many had thought. Because a weak housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely, this was good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this report is not considered to be highly important to the markets, preventing a more visible reaction.

Tomorrow has two pieces of economic data being posted. The first is last weeks unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that new claims for unemployment benefits rose from 232,000 to 237,000. Good news for mortgage shoppers would be a sizable spike as rising claims is a sign of a weakening employment sector. Since this is only a weekly update, it often has little or no impact on mortgage rates unless it shows a sizable variance from forecasts.

Next up is that Julys Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. The National Association of Realtors will release this report, giving us another measurement of housing sector strength. It covers a high percentage of all home sales in the U.S., but usually does not have a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from analysts forecasts. It is expected to show a rise from Junes sales, meaning the housing sector strengthened last month. This would generally be bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because a strengthening housing sector makes broader economic growth more likely. But unless the increase is much larger than current forecasts, the report will likely have a minimal impact on tomorrows mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Thursdays bond market has opened in negative territory despite weaker than expected economic news. The major stock indexes are showing minor losses of 9 points in the Dow and 11 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.18%), but strength late yesterday should offset this loss, keeping mortgage rates at yesterdays morning levels. If your lender improved rates intraday yesterday, you should see a slight increase in this mornings pricing.

Todays first piece of data was last weeks unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They revealed that 234,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed, up from the previous weeks 232,000 initial filings. The increase is technically favorable for bonds because rising claims hints at a weakening employment sector. However, analysts were expecting to see the number come in higher than it did. That, with the fact this is only a weekly report, has prevented much of a reaction in bonds or mortgage rates.

Also, the National Association of Realtors announced a 1.3% decline in last months home resales at 10:00 AM ET. This was weaker than the 0.9% increase that analysts were expecting. That indicates the housing sector was softer than many had thought, making the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has one report and it is the most important release of the week. Julys Durable Goods Orders will be posted by the Commerce Department at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, giving us an important indication of manufacturing sector strength. This report tracks orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years such as appliances, electronics and airplanes. Analysts are expecting to see a drop of 6.0% in new orders, pointing towards manufacturing sector weakness. This data is known to be quite volatile from month to month, so a decline of this size doesn't raise too much concern about the economy. However, a much larger decline is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it means manufacturing activity is softer than many had thought. A secondary reading the excludes more volatile transportation-related orders is expected to rise 0.5%. The softer the reading, the better the news it is for the bond and mortgage markets.

Also worth noting is the annual central banker conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. There have been major events to come out of this event in the past while others have been non-factors. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak this year, so all eyes will be on her speech at 10:00 AM tomorrow. The conference runs today through Saturday, so we could still see the markets react to something from this event.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Fridays bond market has opened in positive territory despite strong gains in stocks. The major stock indexes are showing strength, pushing the Dow up 118 points and the Nasdaq up 29 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (2.18%), but a little weakness late yesterday should keep this mornings mortgage rates close to yesterdays early pricing. If your lender revised rates lower intraday yesterday, you should see a slight improvement in this mornings pricing.

The Commerce Department posted Julys Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 6.8% decline in new orders for big-ticket products. Analysts were expecting to see a 6.0% decline, so the results are technically good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, it is worth noting that this data is known to be extremely volatile. That makes the variance less significant than if it came in other reports. Also, a secondary reading that excludes more volatile airplanes and other transportation-related orders showed a 0.5% increase, matching expectations. Accordingly, we are seeing little reaction to the news.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is speaking at the annual central banker conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Her prepared speech so far has not addressed monetary policy topics such as change to key short-term interest rates or balance sheet holdings. It appears the content of her speech is more about financial regulations dating back to the meltdown and their minimal impact on the economy. There still is a possibility of her saying something in response that could affect the markets. As of now though, we have not seen an impact on mortgage rates.

Next week has plenty scheduled that is expected to affect mortgage rates. It starts off with a couple of moderately important Treasury auctions and closes with two extremely important economic reports. In between is more data for the markets to digest also. Look for details on all of next weeks activities in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Mondays bond market has opened flat to start the week. The major stock indexes are mixed with the Dow down 15 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (2.17%), but due to some strength late Friday we still should see a slight improvement in this mornings mortgage pricing if comparing to Fridays morning rates.

Today has no relevant economic data set for release. The rest of the week brings us the release of seven pieces of economic data for the markets to digest, including a couple of extremely important reports. Those more important reports come late in the week.

What today does have is the first of this week's two Treasury auctions that may affect bond trading and mortgage rates. There are auctions several days, but the two relevant ones are todays 5-year Note and tomorrows 7-year Note sales. Results of these will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading. If investor interest is strong in the auctions, we can expect the broader bond market to rally and mortgage rates to possibly move slightly lower. However, lackluster demand could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates later this afternoon and possibly tomorrow.

The Conference Board will post their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August late tomorrow morning. This index measures consumer sentiment about their personal financial and employment situations, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. A noticeable decline in confidence would indicate that surveyed consumers probably will not make a large purchase in the immediate future. That would be a sign of economic weakness and should drive bond prices higher, leading to lower mortgage rates tomorrow. It is expected to show a reading of 120.3, which would be a small decline from Julys 121.1. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week due to the significance of the Employment and ISM reports that will be posted. The calmest day for rates may be today or tomorrow. With so much on tap this week, it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the new future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tuesdays bond market has opened in positive territory due overseas news. Stocks are showing moderate losses with the Dow down 50 points and the Nasdaq down 24 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32 (2.11%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Yesterdays 5-year Treasury Note auction went fairly well with a couple of benchmarks showing a decent level of investor interest. The bond market reacted positively but not enough for broad rate improvements from lenders. However, it does allow us to be optimistic about todays 7-year Note auction. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so if there is a reaction to todays sale it will come during early afternoon trading.

Todays sole piece of economic data was Augusts Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board announced a reading 122.9 that exceeded forecasts of 120.3 and higher than Julys revised 120.0. Analysts were expecting to see a decline, meaning surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. That is negative for bonds and mortgage rates because rising confidence usually translates into stronger levels of consumer spending that fuels economic growth.

What is fueling this mornings bonds gains has nothing to do with economic data. It is North Koreas action yesterday (firing a missile over Japan) and the rising tensions that are expected to follow. This is a flight to safety move where bonds look more appealing to investors because of the geopolitical uncertainty. While these moves are favorable in the short-term, we should remain cautious as they can easily be reversed once the crisis that caused it subsides.

Tomorrow has two relevant reports that we will be watching, starting with the ADP Employment report before the markets open. This release has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. It tracks changes in private-sector jobs of the companys clients that use them for payroll processing. I don't have much faith in the data but the markets do react to it, so we watch it. It is expected to show 180,000 new private-sector jobs were added last month. A higher number would be negative news for mortgage rates while a much smaller than expected increase would be favorable.

The second release of the day will be the first revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. The GDP is the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic growth or contraction. This reading is the second of three that we see each quarter. Last months preliminary reading revealed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.6%. Tomorrows revision is expected to show that the GDP actually rose 2.8%, meaning the economy was a bit stronger than previously thought from April through June. A smaller than expected reading should help lower mortgage rates, especially if the inflation portion of the release does not get revised higher. There will be a final revision issued next month, but it probably will have little impact on mortgage rates since traders will be more interested in the current quarters activity.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Wednesdays bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news. The major stock indexes are mixed with the Dow down 9 points and the Nasdaq up 24 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.14%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Yesterdays 7-year Treasury Note auction went pretty well with investor demand above average. This was a bit better than Mondays 5-year Note auction, but wasn?t strong enough to cause much of a move in bonds or mortgage rates during afternoon trading yesterday.

The first of todays two pieces of economic data was Augusts ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. It showed that 237,000 new private sector jobs were added to the economy last month. This was much stronger than the 180,000 that was expected, indicating the employment sector may have been better off this month than many had thought. The truth will come in Fridays governmental report, but if we see similar results then, we could see mortgage rates move higher.

Also posted early this morning was the first revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It revealed the economy grew at a 3.0% annual rate. This was an upward revision from the initial estimate of 2.6% and stronger than forecasts of 2.8%. This means the economy was stronger during the April through June months than previously thought. Because bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, we should consider this data bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

There are two more reports scheduled for release early tomorrow morning. July's Personal Income and Outlays report is the more important of the two, giving us a measurement of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is expected to show an increase of 0.3% in income and a 0.4% rise in spending. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, weaker than expected numbers would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Next up is last weeks unemployment figures, also at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 236,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous weeks 234,000 initial claims. Since rising claims hints at employment sector weakness, the higher the number the better the news it is for mortgage rates. However, because this is only a weekly report, it likely will have little impact on tomorrows mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Some big news just came in from one of my main wholesale lenders. Top tier pricing just reduced their mid fico score requirement from 740 to 700. Top tier mortgage rates at 700 fico/$200K+ loan amount/80% LTV??? Yup. Current rates meeting these requirements on the conforming 30 year fixed is; 3.75% at zero points and for the super-conforming 30 year fixed is at 3.99% at zero points. 30 day pricing/21 day closing. You won't find better pricing or faster turn times.

Lower rates are available with lower loan to value.

Thursdays bond market has opened up slightly despite early stock strength. The major stock indexes are showing moderate gains of 72 points in the Dow and 38 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.13%), which should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Julys Personal Income and Outlays report was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 0.4% increase in income and a 0.3% rise in spending. The income reading exceeded forecasts by 0.1%, but the spending reading came in light by the same amount. This means consumers had more money to spend but spent less than thought. That makes the data neutral to slightly positive for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also posted early this morning was last weeks unemployment figures. They showed that 236,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, matching expectations. This was a slight increase from the previous weeks revised total of 235,000 initial filings. Because this is only a weekly release that had a minimal variance from forecasts, it has had little impact on this mornings mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow is a very important day for the financial and mortgage markets. There are three reports being released, two of which are considered extremely important. The first is Augusts Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. The Labor Department will post the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and average hourly earnings for this month. The ideal scenario for the bond market and mortgage rates is rising unemployment, a drop in payrolls and earnings to fall slightly. Analysts are expecting to see that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3% and that 183,000 jobs were added during the month. The average earnings reading is forecasted to rise 0.2%. Weaker than expected readings would signal employment sector weakness and would be very good news for bonds and mortgage rates tomorrow. However, if we get stronger than expected numbers, mortgage rates will probably spike higher as it would give the Fed a good reason to raise key short-term interest rates sooner than later.

The other big news tomorrow will be the release of the Institute for Supply Managements (ISM) manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and is expected to show 56.8, up from Julys reading of 56.3. A reading above 50 is considered a sign of economic growth because it means that more surveyed manufacturers felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. A decline in the index would likely cause selling in the stock markets and lead to an improvement in mortgage rates, assuming the Employment report didn?t show any surprises.

The final report of the week will be the University of Michigans revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for August. This sentiment index helps us track consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 97.1, down from Augusts preliminary reading of 97.6. If it revises lower, consumers were less confident about their personal financial situations than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually means that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. The lower the reading we get, the better the news it is for mortgage shoppers.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Fridays bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed economic data. Stocks are looking to close the week on a positive note, pushing the Dow higher by 59 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32 (2.15%), which should cause this mornings mortgage rates to come in slightly less than .125 of a discount point higher.

The first of this morning?s important economic releases was Augusts Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. The Labor Department announced that the U.S. unemployment rate inched up from 4.3% in July to 4.4% in August. The report also said that 156,000 new jobs were added to the economy, falling short of the 183,000 that was expected. It also showed that Julys and Junes payroll totals were revised lower by a combined total of 41,000 jobs. Furthermore, average earnings rose only 0.1% when analysts were calling for a 0.2% rise.

At 10:00 AM ET, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) posted their manufacturing index for August. It came in at 58.8, exceeding forecasts of 56.8. That means more surveyed manufacturing executives felt business improved during the month than many had expected. Since that is a strong indication that the manufacturing sector is strengthening, it is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. Because this is considered to be a highly important monthly release, it has had a negative impact on this morning?s mortgage pricing.

The third report of the day and the final release of the week was the University of Michigans revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for August. This report gave us a bit of favorable news with a reading of 96.8. That was lower than the 97.1 that was forecasted and Augusts preliminary reading of 97.6. This index tracks consumer confidence in their own financial situations. The weaker reading indicates consumers are a little less likely to make a large purchase than they were earlier in the month. However, this is also the least important of todays three reports, meaning we are not seeing much of a reaction to the news.

Overall, the employment report was good news for mortgage rates. It appears that traders were not all that impressed with it unfortunately. All three of headline readings in the release gave us bond-friendly results. The bond market initially reacted slightly favorably, but that was short-lived as the negative move came after the important ISM release. The third report had little impact on todays trading.

Next week brings us the release of a couple of relevant economic reports, but none are considered to be nearly as important as this morning?s data was. The financial and mortgage markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday. All the markets are scheduled for a full day of trading today though. Look for details on next weeks calendar in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tuesdays bond market has opened well in positive territory due to weekend geopolitical news, particularly N. Koreas nuclear bomb test. The stock markets are reacting negatively to the news, pushing the Dow lower by 103 points and the Nasdaq down 15 points. The bond market is currently up 17/32 (2.10%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point if comparing to Fridays early pricing. The financial and mortgage markets were closed yesterday for the Labor Day holiday.

Julys Factory Orders data was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning. The release showed a 3.3% decline in new orders at U.S. factories, nearly matching expectations. This data covers both durable and non-durable goods. Because this is only a moderately important report that almost pegged forecasts, it has had no influence on this mornings bond trading or mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow morning has no relevant economic data being release, but does brings us an afternoon event to watch. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by Federal Reserve regions. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings and is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each meeting. If it reveals any significant surprises or changes from the previous release, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed's likelihood of raising short-term interest rates before the end of the year.

Overall, the most active day of the week for mortgage rates will probably end up being today unless something happens on the N. Korea issue. The rest of the week carries the same importance and likelihood of volatility since there is little else being posted. Despite the lack of significant economic data, it still would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating and interest rate and closing soon.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Wednesdays bond market has opened down slightly with little on tap this morning to extend yesterdays rally. Stocks are showing moderate gains, pushing the Dow up 78 points and the Nasdaq up 16 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (2.06%), but we still should see a slight improvement from yesterdays morning pricing due to strength late Tuesday. If your lender lowered rates intraday yesterday, you should see little change this morning.

Todays only relevant economic data comes at 2:00 PM ET, when the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by Federal Reserve regions. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings and is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each meeting. If it reveals any significant surprises or changes from the previous release, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Feds likelihood of raising short-term interest rates before the end of the year.

Tomorrow has two pieces of minor data scheduled for release. The first will be last weeks unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 239,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous weeks 236,000 initial claims. Since rising claims hints at employment sector weakness, the higher the number the better the news it is for mortgage rates. It is worth noting though, that because this is only a weekly report, it likely will have little impact on tomorrows mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance.

The final report of the week will be revised 2nd Quarter Productivity numbers, also at 8:30 AM ET. This report measures employee productivity in the workplace. Strong levels of productivity allow the economy to expand without inflation concerns. It is expected to show an upward revision from the previous estimate of a 0.9% increase. Forecasts are currently calling for a 1.2% annual rate, meaning productivity was stronger than previously thought. This would be positive news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this report does not usually cause much movement in rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Sorry for the missed reports...out sick for a few days.

Fridays bond market has opened in negative territory as traders look to capture profits from the recent rally. Stocks are mixed but fairly calm with the Dow up 22 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (2.06%), which should keep this mornings mortgage rates close to Thursdays morning pricing. Some lenders improved rates intraday yesterday, but this mornings losses erased those gains.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. That leaves us to believe stock movement is the best candidate as the source of an intraday change in rates. If the major stock indexes remain near current levels the rest of the day, bonds and mortgage rates are likely to follow suit.

Next week brings us the release of several economic reports that are likely to affect mortgage rates in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions. The data comes mid and late week while the auctions will take place mid-week. Monday does not have anything set that we need to be concerned about. Look for details on next weeks calendar in this weekends weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Mondays bond market has opened in negative territory following a very strong open for stocks. The major stock indexes are kicking off the new week in rally mode, pushing the Dow higher by 183 points and the Nasdaq up 70 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32 (2.10%), which should cause in increase of approximately .125 of a discount point in this mornings mortgage rates if comparing to Fridays morning pricing.

There is nothing of importance set for release today. The rest of the week has five pieces of monthly economic data for the markets to digest, most of which is considered to be important. There are also two Treasury auctions that have the possibility to affect mortgage pricing. All of the relevant economic data comes the latter part, so we could see the most movement in rates as the week progresses.

Tomorrow has not relevant economic data either, but does bring us the first of two Treasury auctions that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. 10-year Treasury Notes will be auctioned tomorrow, followed by a 30-year Bond sale Wednesday. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. If they are met with a decent demand from investors, indicating that interest in longer-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds is strengthening, the earlier losses are usually recovered after the results are announced. The results of each sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET of auction day. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading tomorrow and/or Wednesday. However, weak levels of interest could lead to broader selling in the bond market that could push mortgage rates higher.

Overall, Friday looks to be the most important day with three influential reports scheduled for release, but Wednesday or Thursday may also be pretty active. There is some pretty important data coming later this week, meaning we should see a pretty active week for mortgage rates. Therefore, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tuesdays bond market has opened in negative territory with stocks showing more strength and extending recent record highs. The Dow is currently up 75 points while the Nasdaq has gained 7 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (2.16%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates slightly higher than Mondays early pricing.

Todays only relevant event is this afternoons 10-year Treasury Note auction results. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading. However, weak levels of interest could lead to broader selling in the bond market that may push mortgage rates higher. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

Besides the 30-year Bond auction, tomorrow also brings us some important economic data. The Labor Department will post Augusts Producer Price Index (PPI)at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. It will give us an indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings that analysts follow in this release. They are the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Analysts are predicting a 0.3% increase in the overall reading a 0.2% rise in the core data. Stronger than expected readings could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market. That would be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market as it erodes the value of a bonds future fixed interest payments. As inflation becomes more of a concern in the markets, bonds become less appealing to investors, leading to falling prices, rising yields and higher mortgage rates. Rising inflation also makes a Fed rate more likely to come sooner than later.

We have several more pieces of economic data scheduled for release this week that is likely to influence the financial and mortgage markets. Thursday and Friday each have an important report scheduled in addition to other releases.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Wednesdays bond market has opened in negative territory despite favorable economic data. The major stock indexes are fairly calm with the Dow down 4 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (2.18%), but we should see little change in this mornings mortgage rates.

Yesterdays 10-year Treasury Note auction did not go overly well. Some of the benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showed a lackluster interest in the securities. The bond market made a small move after results were posted but it was not enough to affect mortgage rates. However, it does not give us much to be optimistic about in todays 30-year Bond sale. Results of todays auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

Todays sole economic report was Augusts Producer Price Index (PPI)at 8:30 AM ET that showed a 0.2% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the more important core data. Both readings fell 0.1% short of forecasts, meaning inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy were a bit softer than expected. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because higher levels of inflation make bonds less appealing to investors and makes a Fed rate hike more likely to come sooner than later.

Tomorrow has two pieces of economic data that we will be watching, one of which is much more important than the other. The more important of them is Augusts Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET. The CPI is the more important of this weeks two inflation readings since it is considered to be a key indicator of inflation at the consumer level of the economy. As with todays PPI, there are two readings in the report. Current forecasts show a 0.3% increase in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core reading. The weaker the readings, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also at 8:30 AM will be the release of last weeks unemployment figures. They are expected to show that new claims for unemployment benefits rose from 298,000 to 310,000. Good news for mortgage shoppers would be a sizable spike as rising claims is a sign of a weakening employment sector. Since this is only a weekly update, it often has little or no impact on mortgage rates unless it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. It is also worth noting that this data is expected to be skewed by storm-related filings, reducing the possibility of it affecting the financial or mortgage markets tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Thursdays bond market has opened flat despite stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 13 points and the Nasdaq down 23 points. The bond market is currently unchanged at 2.19%, which should keep this mornings mortgage rates at yesterdays levels.

Neither of this mornings economic reports gave us favorable results. The more important Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed a 0.4% in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core data. The overall reading slightly exceeded the 0.3% increase that was expected while the core data pegged forecasts. The readings mean that inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy were a little stronger than expected last month, while prices without more volatile food and energy costs were not. Therefore, we can consider this data neutral to slightly negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also at 8:30 AM was last weeks unemployment figures that revealed 284,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous weeks 298,000 initial filings and well below the 310,000 that analysts were calling for. Because this is only a weekly report and it is possible that this data was skewed because of weather issues, it has not had much of an impact on todays trading or mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow closes the week with three relevant economic reports, starting with highly important Retail Sales report for August at 8:30 AM ET. This Commerce Department report will give us a very important measurement of consumer spending that is extremely relevant to the markets because it makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% increase in sales. Analysts are also calling for a 0.5% rise in sales if more volatile auto transactions are excluded. Stronger than expected sales would be considered bad news for bonds and likely lead to an increase in mortgage pricing since it would indicate economic growth.

Augusts Industrial Production data will be posted at 9:15 AM ET tomorrow. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is considered to be moderately important, meaning the sales data will be the focus of morning trading. A 0.2% rise from July's level of output is what market participants are expecting to see. A larger increase would be negative news for bonds and mortgage rates, while a weaker than expected figure would be considered good news. However, the Retail Sales report will draw much more attention than this report.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Fridays bond market has opened flat even though we saw quite favorable results in this morning?s economic data and N. Korea fired another missile over Japan last night that had previously caused a strong positive reaction in bonds. Stocks are showing minor gains with the Dow up 25 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (2.20%), but we should see little change in this mornings mortgage rates.

The Commerce Department kicked off this mornings batch of releases with Augusts Retail Sales report. It revealed a 0.2% drop in consumer level spending last month, falling short of the 0.1% increase that was expected. A secondary reading that exclude more costly and volatile auto transactions also came in light (up 0.2% versus 0.5%). This data indicates that consumers spent less than thought last month, making the data good news for mortgage rates because weaker spending should translate into weaker overall economic growth.

Augusts Industrial Production data was second, coming at 9:15 AM ET. This data showed a 0.9% decline in production at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. That was well off from forecasts of a 0.2% increase, but the decline is being attributed to Hurricane Harvey and not a quickly softening industrial sector. Therefore, the news is not having an impact on bond trading or mortgage pricing.

The third report of the morning was the University of Michigans Index of Consumer Sentiment for September that came in at 95.3. That reading nearly matched expectations of 95.5 and was a decline from August?s final of 96.8. The decline in good news for mortgage rates waning confidence usually translates into weaker levels of consumer spending. However, because it was very close to forecasts and comes in a moderately important release, we have not seen much of a reaction to this news.

Next week bring us the release of little economic data, most of which is housing-related. What is of importance is the FOMC meeting mid-week that will include Fed economic projections and a press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen. There is nothing of importance scheduled for Monday, so weekend news and stock movement is likely to drive trading as the new week starts. Look for details on all of next weeks activities in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Mondays bond market has opened in negative territory as stocks start the week in positive ground. The Dow is currently up 63 points while the Nasdaq has gained 27 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (2.21%), which may push this mornings mortgage rates slightly higher than Fridays morning pricing.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today that is expected to affect mortgage rates. The rest of the week brings us the release of only three monthly economic reports, none of which are considered to be highly important. The main focus of the week will be the Federal Reserve and their mid-week events.

August's Housing Starts will start this weeks activities at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. It tracks groundbreakings of new home projects but likely will not affect mortgage rates unless its results vary greatly from forecasts. It is expected to show that starts of new homes rose last month, indicating strength in the housing sector. That is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because a stronger housing sector makes broader economic growth more likely. However, this data is not important enough to cause a noticeable change in mortgage rates unless there is a wide variance between forecasts and the actual results.

Overall, Wednesday is clearly the most important day of the week due to the FOMC meeting, economic projections and press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Friday is the best candidate for calmest day for mortgage rates. I believe we are going to see a fair amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing this week. Therefore, please proceed carefully if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tuesdays bond market has opened in positive territory with the major stock indexes mixed and today?s only economic data having little influence on trading. The Dow is currently up 13 points while the Nasdaq has slipped 2 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (2.22%), but this mornings mortgage rates should remain close to yesterdays early pricing.

The Commerce Department gave us this mornings sole economic report with the release of Augusts Housing Starts. They announced a 0.8% decline in new home groundbreakings, indicating housing sector weakness. While the headline can be considered favorable news, the decline actually comes as a result of a sizable upward revision to Julys starts. The number of starts in August was higher than analysts were expecting to see. Therefore, we can consider this data neutral for mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has one economic report worth watching, Augusts Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 AM ET. This report will give us another indication of housing sector strength by tracking home resales in the U.S. It is expected to show a slight increase from Julys sales. Good news would be a sizable decline in sales.

The big events of the week will come from the Fed tomorrow afternoon. They start with the FOMC meeting that probably will not yield an increase in key short-term interest rates. It will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET. There is a small chance of the Fed raising rates at this meeting but the consensus is that they will not. What will be of interest is verbiage in the post-meeting statement that may hint when the Fed will make their next move. Analysts and traders will also be looking for changes to the Feds massive balance sheet. Rapid selling of holdings is bad for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also at 2:00 PM ET, the Fed will release their revised economic projections for the U.S. The markets are interested in whether Janet Yellen and friends think economic conditions will be stronger or weaker in the coming months and years than previously thought. Key readings the markets will be looking for are the unemployment rate, inflation and overall GDP growth. Downward revisions by the Fed will be good news for bonds and mortgage pricing because it would mean another bump to key short-term interest rates before the end of the year may not be a sure thing after all. On the other hand, upward revisions that indicate the economy is likely to support a Fed rate hike could cause bond selling and an increase to mortgage rates.

The adjournment, post-meeting statement and economic projections will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Yellen at 2:30 PM ET. All Fed meetings are highly important, but this one is particularly significant for the financial and mortgage markets due to the uncertainty of when the Fed will make another monetary policy move and unwind their current holdings. Analysts and market traders will be watching her words carefully for any indication on the likelihood of a rate hike later this year (assuming one was not made at this meeting). Any question or answer at the press conference can impact the markets, so there is a decent chance of seeing quite a bit of volatility tomorrow afternoon.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Wednesdays bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable economic data and a calm open in stocks. The major stock indexes are fairly flat with the Dow down 4 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (2.23%), but slight weakness late yesterday should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at Tuesdays early pricing.

August's Existing Home Sales was posted at 10:00 AM ET. The National Association of Realtors announced a 1.7% decline in home resales last month. This was weaker than expected, hinting at a softening housing sector. However, the decline is being attributed to a 25% drop in Houston area sales, related to Hurricane Harvey. Therefore, not much weight is being given to the data this morning. Traders are more interested in this afternoons events.

Those afternoon activities start at 2:00 PM ET with the FOMC meeting adjournment that probably will not yield an increase in key short-term interest rates. There is a small chance of the Fed raising rates at this meeting but the consensus is that they will not. What will be of interest is verbiage in the post-meeting statement that may indicate when the Fed will make their next move, which has long expected to be before the end of the year. Analysts and traders will also be looking for changes to the Feds massive balance sheet. Rapid selling of holdings is bad for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also at 2:00 PM ET, the Fed will release their revised economic projections for the U.S. The markets are interested in whether Janet Yellen and friends think economic conditions will be stronger or weaker in the coming months and years than previously thought. Key readings the markets will be looking for are the unemployment rate, inflation and overall GDP growth. Downward revisions by the Fed will be good news for bonds and mortgage pricing because it would mean another bump to key short-term interest rates before the end of the year may not be a sure thing after all. On the other hand, upward revisions that indicate the economy is likely to support a Fed rate hike could cause bond selling and an increase to mortgage rates.

The adjournment, post-meeting statement and economic projections will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Yellen at 2:30 PM ET. All Fed meetings are highly important, but this one is particularly significant for the financial and mortgage markets due to the uncertainty of when the Fed will make another monetary policy move and unwind their current holdings. Analysts and market traders will be watching her words carefully for any indication on the likelihood of a rate hike later this year (assuming one was not made at this meeting). Any question or answer at the press conference can impact the markets, so there is a decent chance of seeing quite a bit of volatility this afternoon.

We will update this report shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to the Feds actions and words. There are a couple of minor economic reports set for release tomorrow. They will be addressed in this afternoons update.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:
This weeks FOMC meeting has adjourned with no change to key short-term interest rates. That was expected. What has had a noticeable influence on the markets this afternoon was the fact that 12 out of the 16 voting Fed members still feel a third rate hike will be before the end of the year. In addition, 11 of the 16 predict three more rate increases will be made in 2018. That indicates the Fed is still confident in the economy, even though they have acknowledged that inflation remains below their 2.0% preference. This appears to have surprised analysts and market participants.

Also driving this afternoons trading is the announcement that the Fed will begin unwinding their massive balance sheet next month by reducing the amount of proceeds that are reinvested. They will be lowering that amount by up to $10 billion each month ($6 billion of Treasuries and $4 billion of mortgage bonds) in an effort to slowly reduce their holdings. Those caps rise starting next year to allow up to $50 billion each month ($30 billion and $20 billion respectively). This news, despite not being of much surprise as it was announced in June, is also pressuring bonds and mortgage rates.

Overall, the Fed appears to remain confident in the U.S. economy and actually raised its GDP prediction from 2.2% to 2.4%. They said inflation is likely to temporarily move higher as a result of hurricane-related prices, but expects longer-term inflation to remain near 1.6%. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is speaking now, but has not said anything yet that we did not see in the post-meeting statement.

Bonds have reacted negatively to this afternoons events, pushing the 10-year yield up to 2.28% from 2.23% just before the announcement. Stocks have bounced around a little, but are not far off from the pre-adjournment levels. The Dow is currently down 16 points while the Nasdaq is down 32 points. The bond market is now down 9/32 (2.27%), which should cause an increase in mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point for most lenders.

Augusts Existing Home Sales report was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning. The National Association of Realtors announced a 1.7% decline in home resales last month. This was weaker than expected, hinting at a softening housing sector. However, the decline is being attributed to a 25% drop in Houston area sales, related to Hurricane Harvey.

There are two minor pieces of data being released tomorrow morning. The first is last weeks unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 310,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous weeks 284,000. The larger the number of claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates because rising claims is a sign of a softening employment sector. However, this is only a weekly snapshot of the sector, so its influence on mortgage rates is often weak unless it shows a significant variance from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Thursdays bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected results in this mornings minor reports. The major stock indexes are showing losses with the Dow down 11 points and the Nasdaq down 42 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (2.25%), which should recover part of yesterdays afternoon increase in mortgage pricing. Many lenders revised rates higher by .125 of a discount point after the FOMC meeting adjourned. If your lender was included in that group, then you should see a slight improvement this morning, leaving rates just a tad higher than Wednesdays morning pricing.

The first was last weeks unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET that showed only 259,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous weeks revised 284,000 initial filings and well off from forecasts that were calling for 310,000 claims. The decline indicates the employment sector was stronger than thought last week. However, the numbers could be skewed by hurricanes Harvey and Irma, preventing much of an impact on todays mortgage rates.

Augusts Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) were posted at 10:00 AM ET, revealing a 0.4% increase. This means the indicators are pointing towards moderately stronger economic activity over the next several months. Analysts were expecting to see only a 0.2% rise, making the data slightly negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has no relevant economic data scheduled for release, leaving stocks to be a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates movement. There are a couple of Fed member public speaking engagements set that may affect the markets if they bring any surprises. However, none of the topics are expected to bring too much attention. Accordingly, they are not of much concern.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Fridays bond market has opened in positive territory, erasing yesterdays afternoon weakness. Stocks look to close the week quietly with the Dow and Nasdaq both nearly unchanged from yesterdays close. The bond market is currently up 9/32 (2.24%), nut afternoon weakness yesterday will likely prevent an improvement in this mornings mortgage rates. If your lender did revise higher late Thursday, you should see an improvement this morning by the same amount.

There is nothing of relevance being posted today that has the potential to affect mortgage rates. There are a couple of Fed member public speaking engagements set that may affect the markets if they bring any surprises. However, none of the topics are expected to bring too much attention. Therefore, they are not of concern.

What we are seeing some reaction to is overnight rhetoric from N. Korea about possibly testing a nuclear bomb over the Pacific Ocean rather than within its borders. That threat seems to carry some legitimacy in the markets, helping to boost bonds this morning. Whether or not they actually follow through on that threat remains to be seen. However, if they do, the bond market should react favorably.

Next week brings us the release of a handful of economic reports that are likely to affect bond trading and mortgage rates in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions. None of them are scheduled for Monday, so expect to see weekend news and possibly stock movement to be the biggest influences on mortgage rates as the week starts. Look for details on all of next week?s activities in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Mondays bond market has opened up slightly with little to drive trading this morning. Stocks are showing losses of 1 point in the Dow and 20 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.24%), which should keep this mornings mortgage rates close to Fridays morning pricing.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of six monthly and quarterly economic reports for the markets to digest in addition to two Treasury auctions. None of the data is considered to be key, but several of the reports can directly affect mortgage pricing. There is at least one release set for each day except for today, so we can expect to see a fairly active week in the bond and mortgage markets.

Augusts New Home Sales will start the weeks activities at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales of newly constructed homes rose last month, indicating the new home portion of the housing sector strengthened a little. This report will likely not have a noticeable impact on mortgage rates unless it differs greatly from forecasts. It is the week's least important report in terms of potential impact on mortgage rates, partly because it covers only the small portion of all homes sales that last week's Existing Home Sales report did not.

Septembers Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is also coming late tomorrow morning. This Conference Board index will give us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a decline in confidence from last months reading, indicating that consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than last month. This means they are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future. That is favorable news for the bond market and mortgage rates because consumer spending fuels economic growth. Analysts are calling for a reading of approximately 119.4, down from August's 122.9 reading. The smaller the reading, the better the news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Overall, Wednesday or Friday are likely to be the most active day for mortgage rates while Thursday or today should be the calmest. I am not expecting to see a big jump or decline in mortgage rates any day this week, but we should see them move a little most days, if not every day.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...