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Xring01

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Wow, in the last 2 weeks, I have been reading articles almost daily on the same subjects, water and the power grid…
Read articles on Grand Cooley Damn, Lake Powell, Lake Oroville, Lake Shasta, Colorado river, Lake Mead… all the hydro that comes off them, versus the water capacity they are currently at.

For those of you on the West Coast, I highly recommend you buy a back up generator soon. If you already have one, it might be a good time to do maintenance on it. Ensure its ready to.

I expect we will have alot of outage this summer. This brief article pretty much somes up the stuff I have been saying on RDP for a few years now.


9E03F085-B336-49DE-A44D-3A9265F3D838.jpeg
 

sintax

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had a long convo with my uncle about this last weekend. Hes been in the power industry for his whole professional career. He pretty much confirmed we're f'd with this new direction we're heading. Said we should be building pebble bed nuke plants like the Chinese are doing.
 

Xring01

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I have been in the Electric Utility industry since 1996…
For me…. The supply / demand equation is just not adding up…

When that happens, lights go out in my world.

The fact the politicians put us in this position, doesnt sit well with me.

However CA was able to run at 99.87% renewable power for a bit of time a few days ago. But when I dug into that article the peak load of CA at that time was only 18000mW. That may sound like alot to most of you. But the key thing is… That 99.87% was during the spring when no one in CA is running AC’s or heater. Both SCE and PG&E had previous peak loads of 22,000-24000mW each in the past few years. Thats just the two of them. So if they both peaked on the same day, thats 44,000- 48,000mW…

Thats what I mean when I say the math isnt adding up. Ca removes the Nuke Power Plants, doesnt allow the existing Nat Gas Plants to repower at the same level they originally where built with. Losing alot of Hyrdo resources this year, adding alot of EV Vehicles to grid, but how many new Nat Gas Power Plants are under construction right now…. yep NONE….

Math is not adding up at all. Whats going to happen when all the commuters get home from work at 6pm, turn on the AC, start the washing machine/dryer, turn on that 65” TV…. Multiplied by 33-35million people in CA… About 8:30pm, the sun will go down and how much solar capacity did the grid just drop, but the load stays the same…. ???? Hummm MATH… will bite ya in the ass…

Its going to get very interesting this summer… VERY…. LOL.

But I have two small back up generators… a 1200watt, and a 3300 watt.

While I am on the subject. I bought a Generac 3300 portable recently… Holy crap… that thing is whisper quiet. Honda‘s are freaking loud compared to it. Yep you heard me right.. Anyone looking at portables should consider it.
 
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JLG614

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Its pretty amazing how screwed we are. My family is in construction and we mainly do new tilt up centers. We have been building them non stop for the past few years and we were talking with some of the builders and they said that the city is warning developers they may not even have power ready for these buildings when they are finished. Imagine millions of squarefeet of warehouse in the Inland empire sitting there empty because they don't have power
 

bowtiejunkie

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It doesn’t take a masters degree to realize hydro power in the west is going to be unreliable shortly. Get ready for more finger pointing of who’s fault it is and no solutions. Just keep driving this problem into full-blown crisis.
 

Xring01

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Its pretty amazing how screwed we are. My family is in construction and we mainly do new tilt up centers. We have been building them non stop for the past few years and we were talking with some of the builders and they said that the city is warning developers they may not even have power ready for these buildings when they are finished. Imagine millions of squarefeet of warehouse in the Inland empire sitting there empty because they don't have power

The funny thing on that subject is the lead time on Padmount Transformers and the Wire/cable it takes to connect all of it.
Long story short… order placed today for 2500kva Padmount… you will be lucky to get it in 18 months… no joking.

So thats one of the reasons why they cannot provide the power service to these facilitys. I called this out in a thread about 9 months ago.

Take a wild guess what the lead time is on a Power Transformer, or a GSU… . 3 years. Not shitting ya…
This has had a major impact on SDGE, SCE and PG&E projects. Including the renewable projects. Because you cant install an Utility scale renewable system, unless you have a transformer to step up the voltage, to tie it to the grid.
 
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rivrrts429

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It’s became a fucking 3rd world shit hole. Now reading about baby formula shortages. Rolling blackouts and can’t feed your infants. I wish we could fire every single one of these politicians along with the PUC board members.
 

Xring01

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The important part… They have identified the problem, but have no idea of how to solve it. Exactly what you want to hear, when your lights are out… LOL… Fucking idiots.

0576948D-56D0-448F-98AF-26EBE7A82308.jpeg
 

timstoy

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Yet Newsom and the Democrats want the southern border wide open. California doesn’t have enough electricity, water and housing now, just wait till we get millions of lleagal aliens sucking off the system at our expense.
 

Xring01

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i hope it hits......and hits HARD.

MAYBE then people will wake up and realize the policy of the govt and the enviro grip that is held on them simply isn't realistic or worse we are flat out being lied to.

It will hit. Typically when it does, people die…. Those of us in the industry know this all to well.

For various reasons. Typically when the red lights go out… people forgot to stop/go at intersections and big collisions occur..

But think about what happens in retirement communitys when the AC doesnt work at is 105 degrees outside, and grandmas oxygen machine is no longer working…. Worse yet… kidney machines or _________________.

Shit goes down hill in a hurry in the middle of summer and no power.
 

Xring01

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Why would you need power if the weather is so fucking fantastic?
Seriously we are doomed if we stay on this same course. We all know it, we all see it happening right in front of our eyes, but what are we going to do about it?

What the hell are you saying… The Green New Deal will save the world… what the hell is wrong with you…

Hopefully the full extent of my sarcasm is coming thru In the above.
 

CLdrinker

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Don’t worry everything is fine go buy the EV.

The system can handle it......
😒
 

CLdrinker

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Oh don’t worry about the transformer shortage.
 

Xring01

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Don’t worry everything is fine go buy the EV.

The system can handle it......
😒

I love it when “intellects” bring up how the grid will be powered from EV Vehicles when there are power shortages…
it cracks me up every time…

I just can wait for them to explain all the details of how thats going to happen? And how the person gets home after they discharged their battery, or how to accurately account for who gets paid what for the energy and the transfer… or better yet, how do you ensure you dont back feed the grid during a real outage and kill a lineman.. I have lots of questions for the “intellects”.
 

Xring01

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Oh don’t worry about the transformer shortage.

That used to be my world.. I was the Waukesha Rep for Ca for many many many years. Know that world inside and out. Glad I got out before GE Prolec bought them out.
 

Ace in the Hole

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Oh don’t worry about the transformer shortage.
Shortage of everything related to the industry... I work on the supply side of renewables now, and its kinda scary how hard things are to get. My email is filled with daily price/allocation/inventory issues etc. Its insane and the jackasses in government are just pushing harder and harder to speed up the mess that is coming.

Edit...I have an ATS, and Natural Gas genset on order for the house in havasu. Writing is on the wall. The politicians are pushing renewables when half the shit we need to do projects we can't even get right now. Instead of addressing that they are too focused on shutting down power plants :mad:
 
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mesquito_creek

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That's why my vacation property is built 100 percent off the grid ... Is it a 3500 plus foot stucco house with a pool and 8 tons of AC? NOPE! But it's got full size appliances and air conditioning that runs and runs and runs off the sun! No meter and no bill ever, is priceless! I had 30 years in the electric utility industry and now retired my goal is to not give back a dime.
 

Flying_Lavey

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I’ve been saying for a while if these politicians were serious about “climate change” they’d be pushing for more nuclear power plants.
It's funny that these articles come up just as Netflix releases their "documentary" on the 3 mile island meltdown. More like a propaganda piece for the left.
 
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traquer

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Wow, in the last 2 weeks, I have been reading articles almost daily on the same subjects, water and the power grid…
Read articles on Grand Cooley Damn, Lake Powell, Lake Oroville, Lake Shasta, Colorado river, Lake Mead… all the hydro that comes off them, versus the water capacity they are currently at.

For those of you on the West Coast, I highly recommend you buy a back up generator soon. If you already have one, it might be a good time to do maintenance on it. Ensure its ready to.

I expect we will have alot of outage this summer. This brief article pretty much somes up the stuff I have been saying on RDP for a few years now.


View attachment 1114189
Curious why that article mentions Texas? What's that have to do with CA's problems? Only reason they had outages last year was because of the cold, I think they have enough generation capacity. If they don't, we'll just build more plants.. Which I'm sure they're in the process of already.

Anyone from TX have more insight?
 
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Ace in the Hole

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Curious why that article mentions Texas? What's that have to do with CA's problems? Only reason we have outages last year was because of the cold, I think we have enough generation capacity. If we don't, we'll just build more plants.. Which I'm sure they're in the process of already.

Anyone from TX have more insight? I moved here last week ago lol
Start doing some reading about how the texas grid system works. Then start reading about ERCOT, then start reading about non-export/import rules. I worked in renewable energy in Texas from 2015-2017, and again from 2019 to early 2022. Texas is undergoing exponential growth and the power suppliers/regulators are 3 steps behind. The absolute failure last year really wasn't just due to the cold...it was due to the shear ineptitude of ERCOT, and the political games played over power in texas. They had plenty of warning, and failed to act. I could go off on a tangent about it but I highly recommend you have a backup generator in texas...especially if you live in South Texas.
 

Sleek-Jet

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Curious why that article mentions Texas? What's that have to do with CA's problems? Only reason we have outages last year was because of the cold, I think we have enough generation capacity. If we don't, we'll just build more plants.. Which I'm sure they're in the process of already.

Anyone from TX have more insight? I moved here last week ago lol

The article is about independent system operators across the US warning of energy shortages this summer, not just California.

MISO had a record breaking auction for Capacity this spring. in general terms, this means they are going to start paying generation to be a available even if it isn't used. ERCOT is considering having a Capacity auction for the first time in years. Nuclear needs a very high capacity price to cover the costs of running a plant. Or, as in the case of Illinois, they too need large subsidies to remain viable.

Utility scale renewable companies don't like high capacity auction clearing prices because wind and solar arent dispatchable.
 

AZLineman

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Y’all better get hitches on them electric vehicles
 

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Echo Lodge

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For those of you on the West Coast, I highly recommend you buy a back up generator soon. If you already have one, it might be a good time to do maintenance on it. Ensure its ready to.

I expect we will have alot of outage this summer. This brief article pretty much somes up the stuff I have been saying on RDP for a few years now.

Just did my monthly 15 min test run on my generator and rotated my 20 gals of fuel yesterday!
 

Xring01

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Curious why that article mentions Texas? What's that have to do with CA's problems? Only reason we have outages last year was because of the cold, I think we have enough generation capacity. If we don't, we'll just build more plants.. Which I'm sure they're in the process of already.

Anyone from TX have more insight? I moved here last week ago lol
There is a whole lot more to that story than you can imagine.
If you live in Texas, then you need to do the digging yourself. I highly recommend the 101 page report written by the University of Texas Austin report on this. Its not light reading, but digs into the subject comprehensively.

Texas basically has an open market into Ercot for Energy, which has alot of pro’s, but some very very very bad cons. They assumed this framework would get them thru any situation. Obviously they where wrong.
But to shorten a long story. Texas does have to much dependence on Wind Energy. That has caused significant problems to Texas Grid on multiple occasions.
In addition the cold snap in Texas last year, made them realize the Nat Gas systems is not up to the standards that it should be, especially in cold weather.
So building a new Nat Gas Power plant is not gonna solve the problem, when they cant deliver the Nat Gas to the plant in cold times of the year.

So you have a financial problem, a renewable problem, a nat gas problem, and not enough Nat Gas plants problem. I can keep going, but I think I got my point across.
 
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fast99

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I’ve been saying for a while if these politicians were serious about “climate change” they’d be pushing for more nuclear power plants.
That's the only real, mostly non-polluting solution. Problem is it will take 30 years to build one. 20 years for all the legal and environmental challenges then 10 years to build it.
 

Xring01

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What is the rough cost of a backup generator for a house?

Call your local Generac or Kohler dealer for a “whole house backup”. If you costco member, they have program..
They are the dominant players in that market.
22kw units are the most popular and typically have the best price points.
 

hallett21

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What is the rough cost of a backup generator for a house?
Call it 8k for a 22kw generator with ATS etc.

Install is all over the map. I’ve had them cost 3-10k+ depending on existing conditions.
 

rrrr

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The important part… They have identified the problem, but have no idea of how to solve it. Exactly what you want to hear, when your lights are out… LOL… Fucking idiots.

View attachment 1114212
Battery power storage is a joke. Acres of batteries provide very little capacity and run time. The battery pictured below is rated at 300 megawatts and 450 megawatt hours, which will power about 375 homes for 1½ hours. Scale that up to the 120,000,000 homes and apartments in the United States, and 320,000 battery plants would be needed to provide that 90 minutes of power.

One hundred fifty battery plants the same size of this one would run SCE and PG&E's peak summer load for about fifteen minutes. Construction and grid integration would take years and cost hundreds of billions. After fifteen minutes, what will California residents, businesses, and manufacturing plants use for electricity?

I'm curious about another thing. When solar and battery plants requiring untold square miles of land are built, are they going to be subjected to the same scrutiny for environmental compliance that fossil fuel related projects undergo? Will the EPA demand the studies include future impacts on global warming like they do for refineries, thermal power plants, and pipelines?

The day is coming when the Southwest's pristine deserts will be defaced with these abominations. What about endangered species like the horned toad and barrel cactus? Will the same rules apply to so-called renewable energy?

telsa-megpack-project-victorian-big-battery--scaled.jpg
 

Xring01

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Battery power storage is a joke. Acres of batteries provide very little capacity and run time. The battery pictured below is rated at 300 megawatts and 450 megawatt hours, which will power about 375 homes for 1½ hours. Scale that up to the 120,000,000 homes and apartments in the United States, and 320,000 battery plants would be needed to provide that 90 minutes of power.

One hundred fifty battery plants the same size of this one would run SCE and PG&E's peak summer load for about fifteen minutes. Construction and grid integration would take years and cost hundreds of billions. After fifteen minutes, what will California residents, businesses, and manufacturing plants use for electricity?

I'm curious about another thing. When solar and battery plants requiring untold square miles of land are built, are they going to be subjected to the same scrutiny for environmental compliance that fossil fuel related projects undergo? Will the EPA demand the studies include future impacts on global warming like they do for refineries, thermal power plants, and pipelines?

The day is coming when the Southwest's pristine deserts will be defaced with these abominations. What about endangered species like the horned toad and barrel cactus? Will the same rules apply to so-called renewable energy?

telsa-megpack-project-victorian-big-battery--scaled.jpg

Project Permitting is still a state by state process. Obviously some states are more difficult than other states. Which is a key reason why alot of the West Coast Power Plants are being built outside of CA borders, to ship power into CA. Because the cost of land and the legal costs of getting the permits are alot more expensive and Time consuming in CA than NV, or AZ.

But I have been to many large utility scale power projects all over the West. Those construction sites are very conscious about the environment the are building on. In NV… I could not drive to the plant, unless I was escorted by a phD Biologist in a golf cart to ensure I didnt run over a desert tortoise. Think about it, NV Power had a full time phD Biologist on staff, just to escort people to and from a jobsite for turtles… No shit.


Saw a major Transmission line project at SDGE get messed up for 9 months. Because a “Swallow Bird” built a nest on a brand new $50Million helicopter that was purchased to erect the transmission towers. Literally they did not move that helicopter until after the momma bird laid her eggs, they hatched, and grew up enough to fly away and abandon that next, shut down the helicopter for 6-9 months. To make matters worse, after spending all the money to buy a brand new helo, they couldnt use, they had to rent one for the project, which is not cheap at all.

I can go this subject for hours… But all the sites I have been on, have been very cautious and followed all local and federal regulations.

On this subject… There is significant problems that Wind and Solar sites cause. The larger ones typically have biologists on staff to monitor the problems, so the project owner and do there best to make resistution on the impacts they have created. Do some research on the impacts of bird migrations done by wind farms… they fuck some bird up… big time.
 
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Ace in the Hole

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What is the rough cost of a backup generator for a house?
Generac is way backed up..you'll see a Kohler way sooner. For a 22/24kw the going rate with a 200ATS is between 9-12k right now from what I've seen (texas). Thats what I have on order for the house in havasu but ill install it myself, so I'm just buying materials and having my friend do the panel tie in work. Depends a lot on your current electrical, fuel source proximity etc. I'm going to set this one right next to the AC compressors, which is where the gas is located so that saved a lot.
 

DRYHEAT

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Maybe after a long summer of sitting in an unair-conditioned house people might come to their senses and vote the green idiots out so we can have a mixture of coal, gas-fired, nuke and whatever else they are generating power with these days.
 

TCHB

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Battery power storage is a joke. Acres of batteries provide very little capacity and run time. The battery pictured below is rated at 300 megawatts and 450 megawatt hours, which will power about 375 homes for 1½ hours. Scale that up to the 120,000,000 homes and apartments in the United States, and 320,000 battery plants would be needed to provide that 90 minutes of power.

One hundred fifty battery plants the same size of this one would run SCE and PG&E's peak summer load for about fifteen minutes. Construction and grid integration would take years and cost hundreds of billions. After fifteen minutes, what will California residents, businesses, and manufacturing plants use for electricity?

I'm curious about another thing. When solar and battery plants requiring untold square miles of land are built, are they going to be subjected to the same scrutiny for environmental compliance that fossil fuel related projects undergo? Will the EPA demand the studies include future impacts on global warming like they do for refineries, thermal power plants, and pipelines?

The day is coming when the Southwest's pristine deserts will be defaced with these abominations. What about endangered species like the horned toad and barrel cactus? Will the same rules apply to so-called renewable energy?

Battery stations are used for stabilization of the grid helping to maintain 60 cycles and to be used as a peaker plant to get you over the peak hours just like the small gas turbines used for peak. Battery plants have been very effective in this role. The grid is extremely complex with over 370 PPAs covering capacity contracts, shaped contracts, and even location close to load centers. All of them are complex pricing contracts worth $$$.

 

Xring01

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Battery stations are used for stabilization of the grid helping to maintain 60 cycles and to be used as a peaker plant to get you over the peak hours just like the small gas turbines used for peak. Battery plants have been very effective in this role. The grid is extremely complex with over 370 PPAs covering capacity contracts, shaped contracts, and even location close to load centers. All of them are complex pricing contracts worth $$$.

Are you saying that large (say 50mW, 250mwH or larger) BESS projects are cost effective and worth the costs?
Because I dissagree with that all day long. Give me a 50mW nat gas peaker plant all day, and a boat load of left over $$$ in my pocket.
Then I can solve problems 24hrs a day, all day, 365 days a year… not just 50mW for 5 hours… and provides inertia for black starts.

PSPS events normally last alot longer than 5 hours.
Wild Fires normally last more than 5 hours.
Major power equipment failures normally take more than 5 hours to repair/replace….
Does BESS provide Inertia to the grid to help in black starts?

Lets get back to the basics of the original thread…. MATH is not adding up
 

rrrr

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Battery stations are used for stabilization of the grid helping to maintain 60 cycles and to be used as a peaker plant to get you over the peak hours just like the small gas turbines used for peak. Battery plants have been very effective in this role. The grid is extremely complex with over 370 PPAs covering capacity contracts, shaped contracts, and even location close to load centers. All of them are complex pricing contracts worth $$$.
You know a lot more than I do about the health of thermal systems, particularly in California.

But it seems to me that when the grid gets to the point where frequency support is needed, losing a thermal plant or two could lead to a system wide cascading shutdown. That's what happened in Texas last February. ERCOT lost frequency stability, and shutdowns began to occur.

Electrically powered natural gas pipeline compressor stations were taken offline by the shutdowns. Freezing temperatures below zero caused thermal plants that had been taken offline to sustain freeze damage, and they couldn't be restarted when grid loads dropped enough to restore frequency stabilization. Wind turbines with unheated blades caused that sector to collapse. The dominos fell statewide.

Some thermal plants were decades old and maintenance had been neglected. When grid loads caused those plants to operate at capacities close to nominal installed values, they failed from demand that hadn't been called upon in some time. Running machinery at 100% created stresses that might not have been an issue at 85 or 90%.

There's uncharted territory ahead. The threatened loss of hydro capacity coupled with politicians' cavalier decision that large percentages of power come from "renewable" sources, pressure on financial institutions to withdraw from making loans to fossil fuel production, and unprecedented demand coupled with unnecessary actions like closing nuclear plants is going to create a situation across the country never before seen.

It's going to be ugly. The only hope I see is that conservatives take over Congress in the fall and a Republican president is elected in 2024.
 

CoolCruzin

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You know a lot more than I do about the health of thermal systems, particularly in California.

But it seems to me that when the grid gets to the point where frequency support is needed, losing a thermal plant or two could lead to a system wide cascading shutdown. That's what happened in Texas last February. ERCOT lost frequency stability, and shutdowns began to occur.

Electrically powered natural gas pipeline compressor stations were taken offline by the shutdowns. Freezing temperatures below zero caused thermal plants that had been taken offline to sustain freeze damage, and they couldn't be restarted when grid loads dropped enough to restore frequency stabilization. Wind turbines with unheated blades caused that sector to collapse. The dominos fell statewide.

Some thermal plants were decades old and maintenance had been neglected. When grid loads caused those plants to operate at capacities close to nominal installed values, they failed from demand that hadn't been called upon in some time. Running machinery at 100% created stresses that might not have been an issue at 85 or 90%.

There's uncharted territory ahead. The threatened loss of hydro capacity coupled with politicians' cavalier decision that large percentages of power come from "renewable" sources, pressure on financial institutions to withdraw from making loans to fossil fuel production, and unprecedented demand coupled with unnecessary actions like closing nuclear plants is going to create a situation across the country never before seen.

It's going to be ugly. The only hope I see is that conservatives take over Congress in the fall and a Republican president is elected in 2024.
This
It's going to be ugly. The only hope I see is that conservatives take over Congress in the fall and a Republican president is elected in 2024.
 

TCHB

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Are you saying that large (say 50mW, 250mwH or larger) BESS projects are cost effective and worth the costs?
Because I dissagree with that all day long. Give me a 50mW nat gas peaker plant all day, and a boat load of left over $$$ in my pocket.
Then I can solve problems 24hrs a day, all day, 365 days a year… not just 50mW for 5 hours… and provides inertia for black starts.

PSPS events normally last alot longer than 5 hours.
Wild Fires normally last more than 5 hours.
Major power equipment failures normally take more than 5 hours to repair/replace….
Does BESS provide Inertia to the grid to help in black starts?

Lets get back to the basics of the original thread…. MATH is not adding up
How much is a MWh on a gas fired 50mw plant all costs included at fuel cost of $6. How many hours will a 50 MW run at max peak power? I guess you have never been around a large 750 MW plant with a large failure. You will not even get a crew of 50 with tooling for 2 days. Repairs can take months on a turbine failure. I was responsible for over 4,000 MWs and never had a 5 hour hour repair when a major repair.
 
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