Havasu Homes (single family)

[TCHB]

Havasu home inventory’s above 300 for single family. What is normal and how high will it go.

 

[ONE-A-DAY]

i think it was like 90 when we left back in March

 

[bk2drvr]

Got my "new" and "changed" listings for Vegas area (Summerlin) today. "Price Decrease" on most of them, again.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

It’s only gonna go higher… buying is gonna continue to slow.

Don’t hold your breath for 2014 prices again, I’m not giving any of you CPR.

 

[2Driver]

 

[Havasu blue label]

50 percent drop mr orange az Utah 35 percent Nevada 42 percent

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

50 percent drop mr orange az Utah 35 percent Nevada 42 percent

Is this like your “30% of homes in Havasu need multiple families to qualify” number?

 

[riverroyal]

Mean while in San Diego you can’t get concrete or plywood. It’s all bought.
This dip is so much different than the last one.
You shouldn’t use and old example, unknown territory

 

[Havasu blue label]

the Data is there son

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Mean while in San Diego you can’t get concrete or plywood. It’s all bought.
This dip is so much different than the last one.
You shouldn’t use and old example, unknown territory

This. Nobody knows where this is gonna end up in the venerable… 18 months lol.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I like to look at the numbers on the deals that actually close. Listings don't mean shit.

 

[DRYHEAT]

The folks who bought on a wing and a prayer might start listing, but the Cali retiree’s will keep coming.

Havasu will have a pull back but not 50% unless California goes completely to shit.

 

[Dalton]

The folks who bought on a wing and a prayer might start listing, but the Cali retiree’s will keep coming.

Havasu will have a pull back but not 50% unless California goes completely to shit.

Eh I think havasu might get hit harder than CA.

 

[Havasu blue label]

They have to move they can’t afford the equity line payments so havasu , Utah , vegas here we come

 

[FishSniper]

the Data is there son

This may be the first post I’ve ever seen from you that the spelling is correct.

 

[sintax]

Eh I think havasu might get hit harder than CA.

It always will.

 

[SummitKarl]

The folks who bought on a wing and a prayer might start listing, but the Cali retiree’s will keep coming.

Havasu will have a pull back but not 50% unless California goes completely to shit.

this ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Some slowing on my end (thank fuchin GOD) investor spec's for the most part ended about 4 months ago, no room left for profit, so it's builder spec's and customs now, which is still way more work then I want but I am still booked at about 80% of previous years for now

 

[LHC Kirby]

This may be the first post I’ve ever seen from you that the spelling is correct.

the Data is there son

So you think data should have a capitol D ? I know the spelling is correct, but is it REALLY?


** humor

 

[Starloans]

I got into RE in '95 at the beginning of a bull RE market in San Diego. Went through crash of '08 then back up to now. Not sure the RE market will CRASH this time. May depend on midterms somewhat but I predict a CORRECTION at least. Be careful in the next couple years. Don't exceed your financial abilities. RE inventory appears to be increasing in many areas with price cuts starting to appear often. That with the recent runup of RE prices to historic highs is a telltale sign of trouble on the horizon. The government money is prolly spent or nearly spent. PPP is over, EIDL is done and people will prolly wait until they are out of money and forced to go back to work. The Government has created a welfare society by shutting down the country because of a pandemic and given out free money. Precautions were necessary because of COVID but the current administration took advantage of the situation. I believe it was by design. I think it was Jim Clyburn from South Carolina who said back when the government started handing out cash: "The massive stimulus will help our party realize our vision to give cash to our constituents" or something to that effect. And when the Biden administration did distribute the cash, the states that supported Biden in the election got a bigger slice of the stimy. The first midterms for presidents have been a minefield as of late. This one has the potential to make history. The Dems know it's not going to go well in the mids and it's too late to correct this mess. We'll see. Save your money for now.

 

[DLC]

It will be nice if havasu chills a little bit…

I need a pool in 2028, We need to meet with pool builders now so we can see how much cash we can save…

 

[PaPaG]

It's only going to get worse. Not doom and gloom but facts. Sorry to see anyone on RDs get hurt by the dropping prices and houses not selling for those trying to get top dollar....but it's going to happen...I think there will be over 750 sometime soon........

 

[petie6464]

I'm seeing the Havasu contractors new pimped out trucks coming up for sale soon.

 

[HB2Havasu]

Pre-Plandemic the average inventory in Havasu was normally in the range of 600-800 Single Family Home listings. 300 is far from the Sky Falling you Chicken Littles, lol.

Listening to Dave Ramsey yesterday he is predicting the housing market to flatten to zero growth over the next year, which makes sense with Interest Rate Increases and Bidenflation. Most of the so called experts are still predicting 3% to 7% growth over the next 12 months. I personally believe that we will see market contractions of 2%-5% annually until a new administration takes over in January, 2025. This could all change if the Progressives kill the Filibuster and pass Build Back Better and drop another 7 Trillion into an already bloated money supply. If that happens the markets will likely implode IMO. J/S

 

[Englewood]

This dip is so much different than the last one.
You shouldn’t use and old example, unknown territory

THIS RIGHT HERE! This is nothing like we've ever experienced. Times are different. I never thought in a million years we'd have a Plandemic and kids would be sitting at home for a year with the world shut down. Literally ANYTHING is possible at this point.

I'm just an used house salesman, but I think we'll be lucky if we only give back the Covid gains. I also believe we are still in the first inning.

 

[Cole Trickle]

We are definitely heading for troubling waters.

People are acting like the economy is great and tons of jobs are available when it's only that $15 minimum wage stuff there for the taking. The only jobs available are shit jobs and we are going to see a bunch of lay offs due to mortgage rates and supply chain issues and that income won't be replaceable for a while.

Gas is fucked and not getting better.

I think we are looking at something 1000 % different than 08. Covid and the government spending has fucked us for a long time down the road imho. God knows if/when we will ever get these supply chain issues back on track it's hard to make money if you don't have anything to sell (good job outsourcing everything for the highest profits possible).

I think since the beginning of the 90's we have put profit before people and it's only getting worse. Corporate greed is gonna squee the middle class until there is no more juice and the government seems to be onboard.

I could see 2015-22 homes being the 06 Magic deck boats of the RE market. Building costs continue to go up and in the future it might cost more to build than what you can sell a home for. If that happens in 10 years the average guy won't be looking new or custom.

Hold on.

 

[MSum661]

Everything is good. No problema's

 

[monkeyswrench]

Mean while in San Diego you can’t get concrete or plywood. It’s all bought.
This dip is so much different than the last one.
You shouldn’t use and old example, unknown territory

You guys are having concrete supply issues as well? We have two plants up here, and one decent size precast manufacturer. When talking to one 9f the supers at the precast place, he said the three companies are basically on an allotment setup. It seems like the truck traffic had slowed from the mixers too.
I have no dog in the fight, but seeing a herd of mixer trucks parked in the mornings now is a little worriesom. Both yards were empty before...

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

THIS RIGHT HERE! This is nothing like we've ever experienced. Times are different. I never thought in a million years we'd have a Plandemic and kids would be sitting at home for a year with the world shut down. Literally ANYTHING is possible at this point.

I'm just an used house salesman, but I think we'll be lucky if we only give back the Covid gains. I also believe we are still in the first inning.

Absolutely still in the first inning. I think housing is really gonna be dependent on the unemployment picture. regardless of what anyone here says, there are millions upon millions of people sitting in houses and are locked into low rates with payments cheaper than rent in their market. Those people aren't moving. Even if unemployment jumps back to 10%, only 10% of them are moving. I agree anything is possible though.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Everything is good. No problema's

View attachment 1124252

That is meaningless if no one is getting mortgages today

My nationwide mortgage client is down like 70%..

That said all the new houses on the street behind me have sold... for more per Sq. Ft. than I paid 90 days ago.. weird.

 

[MSum661]

That is meaningless if no one is getting mortgages today

My nationwide mortgage client is down like 70%..

That said all the new houses on the street behind me have sold... for more per Sq. Ft. than I paid 90 days ago.. weird.

Not entirely meaningless if 79% have recently decided its a bad time to buy

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Not entirely meaningless if 79% have recently decided its a bad time to buy

View attachment 1124264

See people are smarter than RDP gives them credit for.

 

[Skinny Tire AH]

Just my opinion here - we cannot predict where this going and what it might look like when we get there. Applying historic, cyclical data to this won’t and can’t work.

We’ve never had the Federal Government purposely tank our economy in an effort to “remake America”

It could look like the 30’s.

These forces I speak of, they have their I’ll gotten investment profits, lifelong insurance benefits, private security, gated homes.

The destruction they crave will not effect them.

It simply defies predictive models. I heard today expect 10.00 fuel.

 

[bk2drvr]

A friend of ours was over the other day and she is pretty high up at a lending company that lends money on multi unit properties (apartment buildings and such) and I asked her how she was doing. First word out of her mouth was "horrible". She said higher interest rates and investor concern has majorly slowed their business. She said the investors are on the sideline afraid to buy until they see where this whole things goes.

 

[Racer56]

As much doom and gloom that I hear or read lately, it's hard to believe as extreme high demand for construction materials remains high or is getting worse. It is almost impossible to get concrete in socal right now. If you don't order mud 3-4 weeks in advance you are fucked.

Personally I think we will see single family home sales flattening and price correct. Luxury single family and multi family construction is going to remain strong in the near future. I have multiple customers buying and building multi family projects all cash, no construction loans. There's a lot of cash out there that people still want to invest in real estate for long term investment and rising interest rates don't really influence there investment decisions.

 

[bk2drvr]

I wonder what kinds of problems $10 a gallon gasoline would bring?

 

[DRYHEAT]

As much doom and gloom that I hear or read lately, it's hard to believe as extreme high demand for construction materials remains high or is getting worse. It is almost impossible to get concrete in socal right now. If you don't order mud 3-4 weeks in advance you are fucked.

Personally I think we will see single family home sales flattening and price correct. Luxury single family and multi family construction is going to remain strong in the near future. I have multiple customers buying and building multi family projects all cash, no construction loans. There's a lot of cash out there that people still want to invest in real estate for long term investment and rising interest rates don't really influence there investment decisions.

So do the suppliers say what the problem is do they not have aggregate/materials or what? Just curious seems odd they can’t deliver concrete.

 

[JLG614]

Mean while in San Diego you can’t get concrete or plywood. It’s all bought.
This dip is so much different than the last one.
You shouldn’t use and old example, unknown territory

Its crazy right now were having the same problem. Robertsons is limiting our concrete right now to only like 30-40 yards per day for the next couple weeks. Its killing our production. Were placing our orders 4 weeks in advance

 

[Sportin' Wood]

We are definitely heading for troubling waters.

People are acting like the economy is great and tons of jobs are available when it's only that $15 minimum wage stuff there for the taking. The only jobs available are shit jobs and we are going to see a bunch of lay offs due to mortgage rates and supply chain issues and that income won't be replaceable for a while.

Crazy times for sure.

I'm not sure I agree the only jobs are shit jobs. The company I work for is in the industrial manufacturing technology space. We are struggling to find workers in the US and Canada big time. At one US plant, we are having a job fair this week. Hit the local market hard on advertising. One person showed up yesterday. Jobs at that plant with open requisitions for months.

Types of Jobs?
Sales
Technical support
Multiple engineering positions of all types.
Assembly
Welding
Fabrication

I've heard rumors of 300 open positions across just one division in the US. Many engineering roles from ME's to software and beyond. Canada I hear is a train wreck with a flood of migration the workers are getting so much in Gov't benefits they refuse to work.

Something is going to happen, I just don't know what.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I wonder what kinds of problems $10 a gallon gasoline would bring?

Double the problems we see with $5 gas. And an empty Lake Havasu.

 

[petie6464]

I would be more concerned about Urea, the largest exporter, largest consumer and the people that are in control if it. . . Urea shortage would be the same effect as a diesel fuel shortage as well as a fertilizer shortage all in one..

 

[TCHB]

So do the suppliers say what the problem is do they not have aggregate/materials or what? Just curious seems odd they can’t deliver concrete.

We just had to wait a extra week because they were short the powder concrete. The powder mix was coming out of California

 

[DRYHEAT]

We just had ti wait a extra week because they were short the powder concrete. The powder mix was coming out of California

I’m just wondering if it’s because of so much demand or they just don’t have enough drivers to move all this shit around, everybody I talk to is starving for drivers.

 

[Cole Trickle]

I’m

Crazy times for sure.

I'm not sure I agree the only jobs are shit jobs. The company I work for is in the industrial manufacturing technology space. We are struggling to find workers in the US and Canada big time. At one US plant, we are having a job fair this week. Hit the local market hard on advertising. One person showed up yesterday. Jobs at that plant with open requisitions for months.

Types of Jobs?
Sales
Technical support
Multiple engineering positions of all types.
Assembly
Welding
Fabrication

I've heard rumors of 300 open positions across just one division in the US. Many engineering roles from ME's to software and beyond. Canada I hear is a train wreck with a flood of migration the workers are getting so much in Gov't benefits they refuse to work.

Something is going to happen, I just don't know what.

I’m sure certain areas or business have more needs than others.

Maybe there pay was low for the educational/experience requirements hence the low turn out.

Nobody making 80k a year can afford to stay home making government unemployment money. Now if we are talking a 40k a year job yeah those are the ones that used to pay 60k and nobody wants to do that kind of work.

My wife was laid off after 17 years at her company in the middle of Covid. She immediately busted her ass to get back out there with all the job sites/head hunters etc…

Best pay was from headhunters where big companies paid decent but no benefits or actually being on the books. ( I think we will see much more of this so they can avoid benefits and shit can you any time)

She finally got a job offer as a account manager from Lincoln financial as they were building a new specialty team. They wanted 10 + years experience as well as Education. My wife was a one of the first picked. They needed 10 people and were considering 100 people. They called her with the offer and hr (on speaker phone) says yeah we are gonna start you off at 44. My wife says that’s great that’s about what I was making per hour before. She says no a year….lol

My wife was absolutely making more than that on unemployment when they were adding in the Covid bonus.

She almost hung up on the girl as she was laughing and I jumped in and said she had to take it as we needed to qualify for a new home build…lol

She said I need atleast 55k a year and they called back and offered 2k more as that was the most they could do. They said they had 100 other people that would love the job.

Needless to say she took the job we qualified for our house and she got a new job making 90k a year doing her own networking 3 weeks later. The other 9 people they chose were not qualified for the job but were “cheap”.

Large corporations know there are a shit ton of degreed 30 year olds living at home willing to do the work for half of what a well qualified 40 year old needs.

That’s the way to make the stocks look good. Shed the high payroll and fudge the numbers so you look more profitable until you need to fix it again with another truck down the line.

Aside from accounts, engineers, scientists I don’t know anyone young with a degree killing it unless they are a straight up grinder or really stand out.

 

[Skinny Tire AH]

I wonder what kinds of problems $10 a gallon gasoline would bring?

We cannot even imagine the downstream effect. Crops, trucking retail, entertainment. Absolutely everything we see, touch, eat or feel will get so expensive we’ll need to make some hard choices.

2400.00 to fuel my boat? 450.00 to fuel my F450?Going to the lake just won’t be a luxury we can afford any longer. 3 grand before I ever get there?

What about restaurants and how can they even charge enough to continue to serve? Can any of us really afford a 300 dollar “normal” dinner?

 

[530RL]

I’m just wondering if it’s because of so much demand or they just don’t have enough drivers to move all this shit around, everybody I talk to is starving for drivers.

Concrete demand exceeds pre-Covid levels. Further increases in demand are expected as the trillion dollar infrastructure spending bill is implemented.

It is not just cement. Long lead times exist on many things all the while ports, rail, shipping, and trucking are doing strong volumes.

A cut in demand for most things would certainly be welcomed by many as Summit Karl points out for himself.

It remains just way too busy with limited ability to grow above current volumes given a lack of labor in America. We can’t support existing demand let alone growth for the economy.

 

[Joe mama]

We are being played.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I need a patio slab and something for my swim spa to sit on. I think I’ll wait until it starts cooling down again.

 

[2Driver]

The issue that concerns me most is that with normal inflation, adjusting interest rates works.

Right now much of inflation is driven by supply shortages and fuel. I have 10 buyers for 2 Honda Accords, an extra 1 or 2% points on interst rates isn’t going to effect this inflation. Cost of fuel is embedded in everything we buy, interest rate hikes won’t effect this type of inflation.

Inflation is only going away until they either raise rates so sky high it literally kills every part of the the economy or supply and fuel comstraints return to pre-pandemic levels . Take your pic, which is more likely to happen.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I love inflation it will turn my house payment into the equivalent of a car payment in a few years time. Just have to make sure my earnings keep pace.

They have to keep raising rates every chance they get it will take hold. As far as all the supply chain shit I think government needs to get the fuck out of the way and let free markets come back into vogue. Energy policies, tariffs, covid rules and environmental regs are screwing everything up. Look at what CA did to the pot market by regulating the shit out of it...drove it all underground.

 

[mbrown2]

50 percent drop mr orange az Utah 35 percent Nevada 42 percent

I definitely think the price will drop 40-50% of what the peak is ....easily...let's put this here to help prove me wrong later...less than 3 years they were 40% less than today.... keep saying those Cali exiters/retirees will prop up that pricing....I don't see it with rates and markets doing what they are...