For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[LargeOrangeFont]

If you aren’t over the 10k salt cap on state and local taxes or don’t understand why, you probably shouldn’t be looking at 800k houses… there, I said it!

And people think I’m mean.

That said, good point.

 

[mesquito_creek]

And people think I’m mean.

That said, good point.

It’s not my fault, I was raised by a Mennonite accounting/CPA.

 

[Havasu blue label]

I would expect to see boat demand on the uptick as well. 10 years from now we will be talking about missed opportunity in the early 2020s. Some people see that, some will sit on the sidelines for another decade waiting for a crash.

One thing that is seldom mentioned here is that Covid taught a lot of people YOLO. Havasu as we know it was built on YOLO. To some, times and memories with friends and family are priceless. To others, it must be 50% off.

I say that everyday

 

[pronstar]

What’s that saying about real estate, the best time to buy was yesterday?

But I do generally agree with you, smart money is only interested in great deals…..

The best time to buy real estate was 30 years ago.
The second best time to buy real estate, is today.

 

[THE WIDGE]

Curious , and maybe I missed any talk of of this in this longgggggg thread. Az SB 1168 which was passed in Az I think in late fall which gave cities now the ability to manage short term rentals.

I recall a local uproar to Havasu’s city government about the weekend warriors and short term rentals a few years back. I believe at the time the city legally couldn’t do much. The city can now with this SB.

We haven’t gone through a boating season with this law in effect, and I doubt many have paid much attention.

Any thoughts on how this May effect future inventory. I can see some of the locals calling daily papering up busy Air Bnb properties leading to the possibility of a suspension or revocation of the permit you will need to have.

 

[monkeyswrench]

When the arguments subside, there's still good info here...like the SXS thread

Hearing all the terminology though, kind of weird. I always met the lender, they said what the payment was, and then I about died. This repeated a few times, a few different homes, and an F'n forest of paper...but it must have worked out. Couldn't tell you anything about SALT, PMI or squat else.

 

[Orange Juice]

The cost of selling a property and moving is ridiculous.

Neighbors cabin in flagstaff sold this week. The closing costs are close to $50k. Limited supply in the area is driving up prices.

When I’m ready to sell, the buyers going to pay all closing costs.

 

[pronstar]

The cost of selling a property and moving is ridiculous.

Neighbors cabin in flagstaff sold this week. The closing costs are close to $50k. Limited supply in the area is driving up prices.

When I’m ready to sell, the buyers going to pay all closing costs.

I think there’s a growing movement toward flat-rate selling costs, vs the commission structure that’s been the norm.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I think there’s a growing movement toward flat-rate selling costs, vs the commission structure that’s been the norm.

Agreed. I see all that eroding soon. Just need the right disruptor at the right time. Another failure or two from the OpenDoors or Zillows of the world and they will figure out the model and prevail.

 

[angiebaby]

So I still watch the Reno/Sparks RE market and receive regular updates from my realtor friend there. Median home price at the peak in May 2022 was 615K; today (January so far) it is $510K. That is about a 17% drop. Considering prices were up 40+ % from 2018, I wouldn't call it a crash, but it certainly is a significant drop. I'd like to see price per sq/ft numbers.

 

[Todd Mohr]

So I still watch the Reno/Sparks RE market and receive regular updates from my realtor friend there. Median home price at the peak in May 2022 was 615K; today (January so far) it is $510K. That is about a 17% drop. Considering prices were up 40+ % from 2018, I wouldn't call it a crash, but it certainly is a significant drop. I'd like to see price per sq/ft numbers.

I lived in Sparks during the crash, my home in Spanish Springs went from 430k at the peak down to 200k at the lowest. I sold in 2016 for 380k, I paid 213k in 01, so I did just fine. These current corrections are not even close to 08-10, fingers crossed.

 

[regor]

Pending Home Sales Suffered Worst Annual Decline Ever In 2022, Despite December Surge​

"Mortgage rates are the dominant factor driving home sales,..."

FRI JAN 27, AT 7:18 AM

 

[Gonefishin5555]

So I still watch the Reno/Sparks RE market and receive regular updates from my realtor friend there. Median home price at the peak in May 2022 was 615K; today (January so far) it is $510K. That is about a 17% drop. Considering prices were up 40+ % from 2018, I wouldn't call it a crash, but it certainly is a significant drop. I'd like to see price per sq/ft numbers.

Factor in 4-5 yrs of inflation with the 17% drop and its close to where it should be under normal times

 

[hallett21]

I think there’s a growing movement toward flat-rate selling costs, vs the commission structure that’s been the norm.

Agreed but I will say the commission structure still has its place.

When you get into 2+ million dollar homes you’re not just throwing a sign out on the lawn

 

[hallett21]

Pending Home Sales Suffered Worst Annual Decline Ever In 2022, Despite December Surge​

"Mortgage rates are the dominant factor driving home sales,..."

FRI JAN 27, AT 7:18 AM

Meanwhile KB Homes stock just keeps going up lol

 

[shintoooo]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618994720126173191

 

[hallett21]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618994720126173191

When do the 3/4-1tons go on sale?

 

[78Southwind]

When do the 3/4-1tons go on sale?

With a no cost lifetime warranty.

 

[Orange Juice]

This looks interesting. Phoenix is predicted to drop another 25%.

Goldman Sachs says 4 US cities will suffer a 2008 crash in home values | Fox Business

The U.S. is seeing continued skyrocketing interest rates and declining housing prices, and Goldman Sachs expects home values in 2023 to reach that of the 2008 housing crisis.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[530RL]

Homebuilder PulteGroup ramping up housing construction as demand recovers

PulteGroup announced plans to increase its pace of new builds in 2023 after a sharp pullback last year, a sign homebuilders see a turn in the housing market.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[petie6464]

The cost of selling a property and moving is ridiculous.

Neighbors cabin in flagstaff sold this week. The closing costs are close to $50k. Limited supply in the area is driving up prices.

When I’m ready to sell, the buyers going to pay all closing costs.

Or just sick a for sale sign in your yard and sell it yourself and pocket the 50k.

 

[bk2drvr]

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

View attachment 1194958

This is is response to overpaying for talent just 1 year ago..

They paid Gelsinger the new and current CEO $179M in 2021…

The former CEO Bob Swan made $20M in 2020.

Intel Boosts Employee Compensation by $2.4B in Race to Retain Top Talent - Spiceworks

Intel plans to raise employee pay by up to $2.4 billion in the coming months to retain top talent amid the Great Resignation wave, which has beset the industry.

www.spiceworks.com

 

[Gonefishin5555]

These tech companies can all eat a bag of dicks

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Havasu for sale inventory dropping a pretty good amount recently down to 350-60 range

 

[Dalton]

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/...ssage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

 

[Ballyhoo]

Curious , and maybe I missed any talk of of this in this longgggggg thread. Az SB 1168 which was passed in Az I think in late fall which gave cities now the ability to manage short term rentals.

I recall a local uproar to Havasu’s city government about the weekend warriors and short term rentals a few years back. I believe at the time the city legally couldn’t do much. The city can now with this SB.

We haven’t gone through a boating season with this law in effect, and I doubt many have paid much attention.

Any thoughts on how this May effect future inventory. I can see some of the locals calling daily papering up busy Air Bnb properties leading to the possibility of a suspension or revocation of the permit you will need to have.

City of Scottsdale - Vacation Rentals & Short-Term Rentals

Rental Registration, Vacation Rental, Short-term Rental, Update Rental registration

www.scottsdaleaz.gov

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

View attachment 1194973


https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/...ssage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

Was watching that one. It is in my hood.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

City of Scottsdale - Vacation Rentals & Short-Term Rentals

Rental Registration, Vacation Rental, Short-term Rental, Update Rental registration

www.scottsdaleaz.gov

Bhc also passed an ordinance in the fall. Didn’t make them illegal just required licensing etc

 

[THE WIDGE]

City of Scottsdale - Vacation Rentals & Short-Term Rentals

Rental Registration, Vacation Rental, Short-term Rental, Update Rental registration

www.scottsdaleaz.gov

I’m just curious how firm havasu will be in registers to enforcement. I read license can be suspended or canceled with multiple violations within a year. I know there has to be neighbors that will start calling more frequently now the city has laws. We havnt gone through a spring/summer season yet.

 

[Dalton]

Was watching that one. It is in my hood.

I think it’s still a little high

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I think it’s still a little high

The owner musta been high when he paid 449 last year. It’s probably still 20-30k high but the market will let us know

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I think it’s still a little high

Everyone is listing high to see what offers they will get. Judging by the standard 3/2 houses in Havasu that have sold in the last 3 months, that pricing seems close and we are heading into warmer weather/higher prices relative to winter. That street does not have a view but is really quiet.

I'm wondering if that is a family or forced sale of some kind. Timetable seems really short since last sale.

 

[Cole Trickle]

Everyone is listing high to see what offers they will get. Judging by the standard 3/2 houses in Havasu that have sold in the last 3 months, that pricing seems close and we are heading into warmer weather/higher prices relative to winter. That street does not have a view but is really quiet.

I'm wondering if that is a family or forced sale of some kind. Timetable seems really short since last sale.

Panic sale?..... Bought with a shit rate thinking they would make an easy 100k and now that the market is falling I imagine renting it out won't pencil at 6.5%+.

Hard to say weird timeline for sure.

 

[Dalton]

Everyone is listing high to see what offers they will get. Judging by the standard 3/2 houses in Havasu that have sold in the last 3 months, that pricing seems close and we are heading into warmer weather/higher prices relative to winter. That street does not have a view but is really quiet.

I'm wondering if that is a family or forced sale of some kind. Timetable seems really short since last sale.

There’s quite a few that were only held a year, I think a lot were overly optimistic airBNB’s.


The seller in 2022 will be the winner in this deal

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/...ssage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Panic sale?..... Bought with a shit rate thinking they would make an easy 100k and now that the market is falling I imagine renting it out won't pencil at 6.5%+.

Hard to say weird timeline for sure.

Maybe.. I mean who thought prices were going to continue their trajectory by last July?

That is going to be a quick $100k loss.

I was thinking divorce, death or something else is forcing the sale.

Maybe it was a rental.. but it was not a short term rental.

A little 1100 sqft 2/2 with a small drop in pool sold for $390 last March down the street from this one.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

There’s quite a few that were only held a year, I think a lot were overly optimistic airBNB’s.


The seller in 2022 will be the winner in this deal

View attachment 1195018

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/...ssage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

Yes. I can tell you this one isn’t an AirBNB though.

 

[DRYHEAT]

Panic sale?..... Bought with a shit rate thinking they would make an easy 100k and now that the market is falling I imagine renting it out won't pencil at 6.5%+.

Hard to say weird timeline for sure.

Could be a retired couple bought it, and then husband died, and grandma went to live near the grand children. It happens quite frequently here.

 

[Cole Trickle]

Could be a retired couple bought it, and then husband died, and grandma went to live near the grand children. It happens quite frequently here.

Grandma must have some extra $$$ lying around to be able to walk from that loss.

 

[530RL]

I think there’s a growing movement toward flat-rate selling costs, vs the commission structure that’s been the norm.

If this lawsuit that has been working its way through the courts is successful, it will change commission structure and incentives greatly.

Trial for NAR, brokerage class action commission lawsuit is postponed

U.S. District Court judge in Missouri postpones class action commission antitrust lawsuit trial to the displeasure of NAR

www.realtrends.com

 

[Dalton]

Grandma must have some extra $$$ lying around to be able to walk from that loss.

If they put 20% down at 449k their balance would be 360k roughly so they’re just trying to get out of it

 

[shintoooo]

There's only 25 homes for sale in my zip code. There were close to 50 a few months ago. Not much inventory out there right now and buyers are coming back into the market right now because rates dipped a bit. I think mortgage rates dip further after the FOMC fed rate decision today and that should push prices higher in areas with low inventories for the short term.

 

[Cdog]

We're definitely seeing the prices off their peaks here in Scottsdale/Phoenix but not a crash. Seems more likely the peak pricing was pie in the sky. Fools were paying that.

But now it's more fundamental buyers that need a home and are shopping for the right one. In the 1-2 million dollar range 2-300k price reduction before a buyer steps up is common. So you have to ask yourself if the inflated price was ever really the market or just a 1 or 2 property fluke based off of scarcity.

In the sub 600k market we're seeing 10-15% reductions off of the peak before buyers have interest. This market is affected the most since homes are more utility verses luxury features and buyers have less elasticity in their budgets.

Good news is we're starting to see the new agents that don't have much to offer drop. Sure they got lucky in the hot market but 2 years of less volume is taking its toll on those with less experience and limited value. Before you work with an agent. Look up their experience in the state department of real estate site. Licensed Brokers have more experience than sales agents in most cases.

On the commercial side I'm seeing a lot of cap rate deals that are not very attractive when you can make 1% less with the bank. Drive thru restaurants continue to be in high demand and permitting and construction is still slow and more expensive compared to 2019. So the reality of waiting on unknowns and opportunity cost is driving inflation here too.

Employment is strong and there are areas with massive corporate campuses being built that will drive demand in the coming years. This rate increase period might be looked back on 1-2 years from now as a blip in the radar.

In SoCal/OC people like Steven Thomas are on record saying no crash and the worst of the rate shock is behind us. I know my dad has several people hounding him to sell his home in Anaheim Hills for 2-300k more than Zillow says it's worth.

I've mentioned it before but we're in the peak of the wealthiest generation on earth retiring. They're sparking inflation by consuming what they want before they die. Barrett Jackson last week is a great example. Stats show their employment has been hard to fill once they leave sparking even more inflation. It appears more than likely we're not in for a crash landing but turbulence until we get into cleaner air.


Hearing a lot of "Marry the house, date the rate."

 

[mbrown2]

I’m just curious how firm havasu will be in registers to enforcement. I read license can be suspended or canceled with multiple violations within a year. I know there has to be neighbors that will start calling more frequently now the city has laws. We havnt gone through a spring/summer season yet.

Neighbors calling cops on STR's...sounds more like SoCal everyday...

 

[Cole Trickle]

Neighbors calling cops on STR's...sounds more like SoCal everyday...

I would be very un happy if I lived next to a STR. The people that typically show up are there to party and won't respect the neighborhood like a full time resident imho.

One of the big reasons I chose st. george vs. dixie springs is they don't allow STR.

 

[angiebaby]

I just got an ad today that one of the homes I'd been watching is now listed by the lender and in foreclosure. They still want a ridiculous amount of money, so I'm wondering if it's just a new marketing ploy. It was initially listed in July for $849K. Now it's in "foreclosure," and they want $799K.

 

[Cole Trickle]

I just got an ad today that one of the homes I'd been watching is now listed by the lender and in foreclosure. They still want a ridiculous amount of money, so I'm wondering if it's just a new marketing ploy. It was initially listed in July for $849K. Now it's in "foreclosure," and they want $799K.

When was the last time it sold/price?

 

[angiebaby]

When was the last time it sold/price?

Built in 2006

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Built in 2006

View attachment 1195046

Smells like a marketing ploy.

 

[mbrown2]

I would be very un happy if I lived next to a STR. The people that typically show up are there to party and won't respect the neighborhood like a full time resident imho.

One of the big reasons I chose st. george vs. dixie springs is they don't allow STR.

Normally you know that before you move there....at least I would... If laws change while you live there to allow them... I totally get it. It just seems very California for folks to move to a very loosely governed place and all the sudden want to impose restrictions... I would rather have an STR kept nice next to me then a Meth-ican (This is not directed in anyway towards brown people (read METH))...who's landscaping can be mistaken for a yard sale...