The Great Depression 2020 version

[LAZARUS]

I'm so scared we're headed for a Depression and not a Recession. How do people survive 2-3 months with zero income?

 

[lbhsbz]

In various ways.

I have 2 mortages and before this mess started, about $4000 in credit card debt that I typically paid of every month....When this started, I transferred everything to a zero interested card (until sometime in late 2021) and have been using that card for every purchase we make, pay the minimum and keep my paycheck and rental income in cash....Mortgages are still getting paid, but I will delay those if I can to have more cash on hand without costing me more money on the back end. I'm still getting a paycheck, but that could go away tomorrow.

I'm not really worried at this point about screwing any creditors....because there is a government mandated excuse as to why many are not able to pay their bills. I'd much rather wreck my credit than run out of cash...and intend to do so if those are the choices I'm left with....which is why every purchase for the last month or so has been on credit and I'm keeping my cash.

Also, I go through the process with about half of the credit card offers I get in the mail...then when I get a approved and they arrive, I throw them in the drawer. If I add up the limits, I've probably got $300K. I have no problem using all that shit up to buy myself a small island with no mailing address to where they can send the bill.

 

[Carlson-jet]

I bought a rooster that could predict the weather, I then trained him to throw darts.
Have no Idea how the rest of society will survive, but I bet they will.

 

[LAZARUS]

In various ways.

I have 2 mortages and before this mess started, about $4000 in credit card debt that I typically paid of every month....When this started, I transferred everything to a zero interested card (until sometime in late 2021) and have been using that card for every purchase we make, pay the minimum and keep my paycheck and rental income in cash....Mortgages are still getting paid, but I will delay those if I can to have more cash on hand without costing me more money on the back end. I'm still getting a paycheck, but that could go away tomorrow.

I'm not really worried at this point about screwing any creditors....because there is a government mandated excuse as to why many are not able to pay their bills. I'd much rather wreck my credit than run out of cash...and intend to do so if those are the choices I'm left with....which is why every purchase for the last month or so has been on credit and I'm keeping my cash.

Honest answer right there. At what point are people going to say fuck my credit?

 

[lbhsbz]

Honest answer right there. At what point are people going to say fuck my credit?

I said it a week ago, although it will be at least 3 months before anything I do will have a negative influence on my credit score. One of two things will happen here if I fail to adjust...either I will come out with zero negatives and it will be business as usual, or it will destroy me financially. I'll take whatever steps I can in an effort to make sure the second one doesn't happen.

 

[monkeyswrench]

I'm so scared we're headed for a Depression and not a Recession. How do people survive 2-3 months with zero income?

How one survives 2-3 months with no income depends on how they lived with income. It will suck either way, but it may suck less if you're less leveraged. I have done it with almost 0 income. Late payments, and my credit got hammered, but my kids ate and had a home. Life happens, you have to make due with what you can, and your priorities.

....Maybe I should have trained a rooster?

 

[RiverDave]

In various ways.

I have 2 mortages and before this mess started, about $4000 in credit card debt that I typically paid of every month....When this started, I transferred everything to a zero interested card (until sometime in late 2021) and have been using that card for every purchase we make, pay the minimum and keep my paycheck and rental income in cash....Mortgages are still getting paid, but I will delay those if I can to have more cash on hand without costing me more money on the back end. I'm still getting a paycheck, but that could go away tomorrow.

I'm not really worried at this point about screwing any creditors....because there is a government mandated excuse as to why many are not able to pay their bills. I'd much rather wreck my credit than run out of cash...and intend to do so if those are the choices I'm left with....which is why every purchase for the last month or so has been on credit and I'm keeping my cash.

Also, I go through the process with about half of the credit card offers I get in the mail...then when I get a approved and they arrive, I throw them in the drawer. If I add up the limits, I've probably got $300K. I have no problem using all that shit up to buy myself a small island with no mailing address to where they can send the bill.

Interesting and honest perspective..

Did you catch the thread where credit companies are pulling back likes of credit? (In the forum below).

Kinda wondering how that’s gonna play out.

 

[RiverDave]

I'm so scared we're headed for a Depression and not a Recession. How do people survive 2-3 months with zero income?

Well they are going to have to find ways to make money..

 

[Angler]

Part time jobs at Costco, Ralphs and others. Don't wait if you need money.
Dominos is hiring too.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Honest answer right there. At what point are people going to say fuck my credit?

Pretty quick.. mortgages and CC bills will be the first things people stop paying for. Govt will give everyone some kind of pass/forgiveness for your sins on this as well.

 

[evantwheeler]

I entered the workforce in 2007. Decided I never wanted to be in the position you described after watching over leveraged people lose everything. They didn’t lose their lives, so maybe not everything, but I don’t ever want to be the guy not paying my bills if I can help it. I buy toys cash, only note is the house. Have 2 years cash reserves to live off of before having to dip into retirement accounts. This assumes inflation doesn’t wipe out the value of our dollar....

 

[zhandfull]

Pretty quick.. mortgages and CC bills will be the first things people stop paying for. Govt will give everyone some kind of pass/forgiveness for your sins on this as well.

And for the landlords out there rent payments will be low on the priority list for a while.

 

[Motor Boater]

I try to stick pretty close to Dave Rameys principals and keep at least 6 months living expenses on hand, no CC debt etc. It makes a lot of sense at time like this. It eases your mind and makes it way less stressful.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

And for the landlords out there rent payments will be low on the priority list for a while.

Yea I’m not happy about that lol

My tenants have been quiet so far

 

[nameisbond]

I'll semi repost a post I made.
So as best I can tell, as of this morning we now have:

- A pandemic crisis
- A supply chain crisis
- A demand crisis
- A labor market crisis
- An equity market crisis
- An oil price crisis
- A brewing bond market crisis
- A developing currency crisis
- A potential housing market crisis

Perfect recipe for a depression!

 

[Emac]

Yea I’m not happy about that lol

My tenants have been quiet so far

Same here from my renter. Hoping they continue to pay and keep it business as usual.

 

[Motor Boater]

Another thing to keep in mind is if people are Stuck at home that means they’re spending less on gas, less eating out, vacation, movies, sports, concerts etc. Everyone should have a little more money in their account.

 

[dribble]

My pickup is a 2007 bought for cash , my boat is a 2003 bought for cash. My around town car is a 2000 Saturn Wagon. I have a mortgage but am retired with a half assed decent retirement income. I’ll be fine.

 

[jailbird141]

Another thing to keep in mind is if people are Stuck at home that means they’re spending less on gas, less eating out, vacation, movies, sports, concerts etc. Everyone should have a little more money in their account.

This is the truth!! My bank account seems like it is dwindling down a lot slower lately!!

 

[lbhsbz]

And for the landlords out there rent payments will be low on the priority list for a while.

A significant concern...all we can do is wait and see

 

[RitcheyRch]

Not commuting to work is saving me about $50 a week in gas plus saving money with eating left overs at home for lunch.

Another thing to keep in mind is if people are Stuck at home that means they’re spending less on gas, less eating out, vacation, movies, sports, concerts etc. Everyone should have a little more money in their account.

 

[wzuber]

I'll semi repost a post I made.
So as best I can tell, as of this morning we now have:

- A pandemic crisis
- A supply chain crisis
- A demand crisis
- A labor market crisis
- An equity market crisis
- An oil price crisis
- A brewing bond market crisis
- A developing currency crisis
- A potential housing market crisis

Perfect recipe for a depression!

Well, after reading all that I'm now depressed. Does that count? Haha

 

[Flyinbowtie]

The unknown is always a great source of concern, and right now we are looking down the road with lots of unknown ahead.
The people of this country haven't been through anything like this since the Great Depression, this is is true. WWII created huge demands on our people, but there was work for those here building the tools to win the war, and their sacrifice was tempered by their belief in the cause. Because of the quality and character of some of us our military has always gone over there to fight the fight, and it has never come to our homeland en masse. 911 was the worst attack since Pearl Harbor With 911 the horror was in three places, not in every home in the land.
Frankly, this is a huge test of the character of our people, one we haven't faced in a long time. Our country has been so successful since WWII that the people have rarely been asked to do anything remotely associated with the duties that come with being a citizen of the United States. The simple act of getting off their asses to vote has become a unspeakable chore for some, and simply not important for others. Couple that with the fact that we have not taught Civics in classrooms in over 40 years and you get the people on the beaches in Florida, and other actions that would have the actors tarred and feathered by their fellow citizens long before the cops got there in another time and place.
If you strip away all of the other BS and all of the noise, and the morons on social media making my point for me every day, we come down to one $64,000 question.
The question is do we have the core values and love of country left deep inside us to change the culture of the country again, and lead by example.
The answer to that question will determine a whole lot about the future.
Hell, it will determine the future.
Well, part of it.
If, when the dust clears, and cooler heads examine this, IF proof comes to light that this event was either perpetrated by the .gov of the PRC, or allowed to grow to killing people all over the world by their wanton disregard for life, we may see the world unite in an effort to send a message to the perpetrators. I would love nothing more than seeing us do what we can to move critical national security related manufacturing back into the lower 48, starting today. I think there support for that.
I also think people are looking at the value of the Second Amendment much differently in many parts of this land today. I would hope we can build on that and drive the scourge that is progressive socialism and, dare I say it, the resurgence of the sceptre of communism that comes with progressive socialism back down into hell where it came from. And where it belongs.
But that is a long way down the road.
We haven't even reached the end of the beginning of this, there is much ahead that will test us all.

Of course...this is just my opinion, I could be wrong. I hope I am about some of it. In fact, I pray every day that I am.

 

[nowski]

I try to stick pretty close to Dave Rameys principals and keep at least 6 months living expenses on hand, no CC debt etc. It makes a lot of sense at time like this. It eases your mind and makes it way less stressful.

I have never read any of Dave Ramsey's books however I've given several of his books as gifts to young graduates. Dave's principals are the same principals my parents taught me growing up. My parents lived through the Great Depression and they always instilled those thoughts in me. Being young and reckless with my finances I didn't learn my lesson till the bubble burst in early 2000. After getting my ass handed to me I went back to the principals that my parents taught me and haven't looked back since. So the moral of the story is "Take Care of Your Finances & They Will Take Care of You"...

 

[riverroyal]

Tough question to answer due to opinions...
If look back at the last time people didnt pay their bills 2009ish you will see everyone survived.
Many bought houses a few years after walking away from debt.
It different this time. Diff president, diff approach.
If you need to eat stop paying bills. Start with stuff they cant take back like credit cards.
It will ruin your credit but who cares.
Your not alone in this. Also i agree with others, you can actually find a job right now which should pay more than unemployment

 

[whiteworks]

My main business is mothballed for the most part at this time. I’ve chosen to contract it quickly, however I can just as quickly turn it on as needed. I have skill sets in place that could be considered essential by some and monetized to generate some cash flow, I’m not afraid of work and doing what needs to be done. Having the right mindset in place is what makes shit happen. Survival is success in life as well as business. If your into making money, there are great fortunes to be made in times of adversity, you just have to create real value in your product or service. Moral of the story is, if your a soft ass, pussy mother fucker, who’s leveraged up hard right now, and you have no way provide no real value to society your fucked

 

[jailbird141]

But what I do have are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you!

 

[wzuber]

The unknown is always a great source of concern, and right now we are looking down the road with lots of unknown ahead.
The people of this country haven't been through anything like this since the Great Depression, this is is true. WWII created huge demands on our people, but there was work for those here building the tools to win the war, and their sacrifice was tempered by their belief in the cause. Because of the quality and character of some of us our military has always gone over there to fight the fight, and it has never come to our homeland en masse. 911 was the worst attack since Pearl Harbor With 911 the horror was in three places, not in every home in the land.
Frankly, this is a huge test of the character of our people, one we haven't faced in a long time. Our country has been so successful since WWII that the people have rarely been asked to do anything remotely associated with the duties that come with being a citizen of the United States. The simple act of getting off their asses to vote has become a unspeakable chore for some, and simply not important for others. Couple that with the fact that we have not taught Civics in classrooms in over 40 years and you get the people on the beaches in Florida, and other actions that would have the actors tarred and feathered by their fellow citizens long before the cops got there in another time and place.
If you strip away all of the other BS and all of the noise, and the morons on social media making my point for me every day, we come down to one $64,000 question.
The question is do we have the core values and love of country left deep inside us to change the culture of the country again, and lead by example.
The answer to that question will determine a whole lot about the future.
Hell, it will determine the future.
Well, part of it.
If, when the dust clears, and cooler heads examine this, IF proof comes to light that this event was either perpetrated by the .gov of the PRC, or allowed to grow to killing people all over the world by their wanton disregard for life, we may see the world unite in an effort to send a message to the perpetrators. I would love nothing more than seeing us do what we can to move critical national security related manufacturing back into the lower 48, starting today. I think there support for that.
I also think people are looking at the value of the Second Amendment much differently in many parts of this land today. I would hope we can build on that and drive the scourge that is progressive socialism and, dare I say it, the resurgence of the sceptre of communism that comes with progressive socialism back down into hell where it came from. And where it belongs.
But that is a long way down the road.
We haven't even reached the end of the beginning of this, there is much ahead that will test us all.

Of course...this is just my opinion, I could be wrong. I hope I am about some of it. In fact, I pray every day that I am.

So good to see you here again..FBT
Your presence here is truely a gift.
As many have said before this, you Sir have an incredible wisdom and insight. The eloquence in which you communicate that is inspiring to say the least. Thank you for your time here. I am certain O.T. is looking down applauding you for that perspective you've just shared with us. Thank you for your service. Stay safe out there.

 

[lbhsbz]

And for the landlords out there rent payments will be low on the priority list for a while.

That will make for a considerably rougher ride for renters than it will landlords I think...if not immediately, in the near future.

 

[squeezer]

My wife and I bought five rentals after the crash on 08. We saw it coming for miles and had the cash and credit to jump when things were on sale...

With our absolute distrust of Trump and Republicon trickle down economics we have been preparing for this one for over three years. We have a serious amount of cash reserves and will try and buy another 5 plus rentals or an apartment complex if housing prices do what they did before.

We have always ran our household budget to function on one of our incomes and have with Zero non-mortgage debt for decades.

The wildcard here is We have a dozen nieces and nephews that we won’t let starve or live on the street... That would hit our reserves much faster than anything else but is an easy trade off to make.

 

[getreal]

I was told a long time ago:
"all you need is a gun and a can opener"

 

[HotRod82]

One thing you guys need to factor in is the fact that the government is going to overreact like it always does. MASSIVE stimulus combined with zero interest rates means things will likely be very good in the short run. The streets will be awash in cash to get the economy moving again. If you're smart, you will use this time to get your financial house in order because the longer term will likely slow down by quite a bit. The feds are going to throw everything at this, choose wisely.

 

[NorCalRiverRat]

Well they are going to have to find ways to make money..

do you think there will be any 7-11 open to Rob ? Asking for a friend...

 

[t&y]

And how is the market crashing over a pandemic Trumps fault? Jeeeezus man....

 

[PlanB]

And how is the market crashing over a pandemic Trumps fault? Jeeeezus man....

It was Obama's economy before this pandemic. Now it becomes Trump's. Liberal logic...

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

My wife and I bought five rentals after the crash on 08. We saw it coming for miles and had the cash and credit to jump when things were on sale...

With our absolute distrust of Trump and Republicon trickle down economics we have been preparing for this one for over three years. We have a serious amount of cash reserves and will try and buy another 5 plus rentals or an apartment complex if housing prices do what they did before.

We have always ran our household budget to function on one of our incomes and have with Zero non-mortgage debt for decades.

The wildcard here is We have a dozen nieces and nephews that we won’t let starve or live on the street... That would hit our reserves much faster than anything else but is an easy trade off to make.

I thought you said you claimed to be a Republican before Trump. Did you mean before Reagan?

 

[TCHB]

Interesting and honest perspective..

Did you catch the thread where credit companies are pulling back likes of credit? (In the forum below).

Kinda wondering how that’s gonna play out.

Now it’s about cash on hand.

 

[squeezer]

I thought you said you claimed to be a Republican before Trump. Did you mean before Reagan?

I ceased being a Republican the day GW landed on an Aircraft Carrier and declared “Mission Accomplished”...

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Now it’s about cash on hand.

So RDP has been right all along??

 

[zhandfull]

That will make for a considerably rougher ride for renters than it will landlords I think...if not immediately, in the near future.

I see government passing laws/regulations protecting renters during this period of hardship. Long term, I agree won't be good to miss rent payments because you will never be able to catch back up. Landlords are rich and can go without, renters are poor and need help is how it will go down.

 

[530RL]

I see government passing laws/regulations protecting renters during this period of hardship. Long term, I agree won't be good to miss rent payments because you will never be able to catch back up. Landlords are rich and can go without, renters are poor and need help is how it will go down.

There are a bunch of people on here who own rental properties and so that becomes an interesting circle.

Rental owners don’t get the rent due as renters get protected by the government. Rental owners then can‘t make their payment on their property. The government then protects them from their lender. The lender can‘t make its payments to the investors in the mortgage. And the cycle continues........

It’s an interesting conundrum as it becomes a self perpetuating circle downwards that leads people to want to risk adjust the prices downward of all the assets throughout the asset and capital structure of the rental markets?

 

[DRYHEAT]

And how is the market crashing over a pandemic Trumps fault? Jeeeezus man....

What? Are you new? Everything is Trumps fault.

 

[2Driver]

When you dont know what’s ahead you tend to think the worse. Between social media, BS scenrio emails being circulated and worse case evening news no wonder we are all in panic - the real facts are concerning enough without the nonstop bathing scenarios that could be 100000 times worse.

We need to get over the hump and assess the damage to know whats ahead. Once we know what we have to do, even if its hard, is better than the current unknown.

People will be back at work before long working like determined Americans have always done to overcome. The government will throw everything at it to lessen the effects

KNOW YOUR COURSE: We decided to sit down and put together detailed financial strategies that we can modify as we go for: fair- bad-ugly. Put your time there now, its really what you need to be doing or you will wind yourself in a hole thinking about the unknown

 

[2Driver]

Captain Sully on USAir got everyone down and safe by telling people the no BS facts, the plan and the intended outcome.
“The engines are out, Im attempting a water landing and once we stop I want everyone to make an orderly exit onto the wing, the plane should float long enough to be rescued.”

If he had said, the engines are out. We are probably going to come apart on impact and drown or burn in jet fuel. If we happen to make it, then the first 5-8 people to the door will survive......then probably 5-8 people would have survived.

 

[RiverDave]

When you dont know what’s ahead you tend to think the worse. Between social media, BS scenrio emails being circulated and worse case evening news no wonder we are all in panic - the real facts are concerning enough without the nonstop bathing scenarios that could be 100000 times worse.

We need to get over the hump and assess the damage to know whats ahead. Once we know what we have to do, even if its hard, is better than the current unknown.

People will be back at work before long working like determined Americans have always done to overcome. The government will throw everything at it to lessen the effects

KNOW YOUR COURSE: We decided to sit down and put together detailed financial strategies that we can modify as we go for: fair- bad-ugly. Put your time there now, its really what you need to be doing or you will wind yourself in a hole thinking about the unknown

Agreed.. for this thing supposedly throwing us in a depression a lot of people are looking at homes and pulling triggers. Stacy is doing another million dollar house today.

Turn off the news and walk outside the world isn’t ending just yet.. and if things do take a turn then there is great opportunity that can be seized as well. (Even by the little guys)

 

[Canuck 1]

We're all gonna die..... Good time to make $$$$$

 

[RiverDave]

We're all gonna die..... Good time to make $$$$$

yep

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Agreed.. for this thing supposedly throwing us in a depression a lot of people are looking at homes and pulling triggers. Stacy is doing another million dollar house today.

Turn off the news and walk outside the world isn’t ending just yet.. and if things do take a turn then there is great opportunity that can be seized as well. (Even by the little guys)

Get it while the getting is still good.. We don’t even know the knee jerk reaction, let alone the short, medium and long term impacts of any of this yet.

The layoffs are really going to start rolling next week.

 

[530RL]

According to the government, a recession is two successive quarters of contraction in real GDP. As a result, recessions are declared at least 6 months after they started. In light of this, it is most likely that we are in a recession right now as we are probably going to meet that definition. But confirmation of such a guess, will not be confirmed for at least 8 months or so as the data has to come out.

A depression is a single quarter of contraction in real GDP of 10% or greater, or 8 successive quarters of contraction in real GDP.

Could we technically reach the NBER definition of a depression with a 10% fall in GDP in one quarter? Maybe If this economic lockdown lasts several months. However, even if the lockdown is March and April, it is spread over two different quarters.

However given the government has clearly signaled they are going to pump not one or two, but three or four trillion of fiscal stimulus over the next year, it is hard to imagine 8 consecutive quarters of contraction in real GDP.

So even if there is a technical “depression” it will probably be short lived.

 

[PlanB]

Get it while the getting is still good.. We don’t even know the knee jerk reaction, let alone the short, medium and long term impacts of any of this yet.

The layoffs are really going to start rolling next week.

I agree. The pain is just starting, and the longer this drags out, the worse the economy will get. The recovery period is anyone's guess right now.