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Stock Market - My Thoughts - love to hear your opinion

Xring01

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There are alot of people on RDP that have alot of investing knowledge.
Thought I would share my thoughts.

When the market tanked on CV19, I had some $$$ on the sidelines, and went all in. I have done very very well. Some of the keys reasons I believe I did well, is due to the fact the US Gov poured about $1.4 Trillion into the economy. The market went up. A lesson I learned long time ago, is its stupid to fight the Fed Banks. Might as well take advantage. Knowing the Fed was opening up the check book, I went all in.

Now Pelosi, has another $3T deal thats going to be debated. I doubt the $3T will get approved, but I do believe more $$$ is coming. On the flip side, read an article that says the Un Employment rate could hit as high as 25%. WHOAH... Thats some scary stuff. Even at 20% Un Employment, thats a very serious hit to the economy.

So, I am no longer Bullish... more on the Bearish side. Pulling profits some of my CV19 investments, selling some completely. Planning to reduce LVGO to 50% of where it is now. Probably sell AMZN, and BYND.... Holding PCG - but thats a 2 year play.

Would love to here yall's opinion.
Bearish and why?
Bullish and why?
Selling? Holding? Buying more???
Any gems out there worth buying right now?
 

rrrr

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I think there is legitimate fear and bad news that hasn't been priced into the market yet. I'm not predicting a blood bath or anything like that, but there is still some pain to be exposed.

I'm sitting on the sidelines, and waiting to see what happens.
 

cofooter

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Google "W" shaped recovery. It's only a matter of when........ me, I am holding, status quo and picking up cheaps stocks via my 401K contribution, Almost back to where I was in March in my 401K account while DOW if 5K lower. Works for me for the long run. I don't pretend I can guess the market. All I know is one year, two years, three years out I will be up. Not a gambler.
 

2Driver

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The weird thing is that so many people are still out spending and buying like nothings happened or going to. They must not really understand macro economics, finance or follow business data.
 
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cofooter

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The wired thing is that so many people are still out spending and buying like nothings happened or going to. They must not really understand macro economics, finance or follow business data.
At some point those people will go from furloughed to jobless to foreclosed. Its inevitable IMO.
 

HCP3

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When do all of those forbearance'd mortgages come back into play? I would have to imagine that alone is going to hit hard when three months of mortgages are due all at once for people...
 

RiverDave

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The wired thing is that so many people are still out spending and buying like nothings happened or going to. They must not really understand macro economics, finance or follow business data.

Boat sales are crazy. RE sales are crazy..

Honestly busier than ever on all the toy / fun fronts . You wouldn’t even think anything is wrong?
 

PlanB

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The wired thing is that so many people are still out spending and buying like nothings happened or going to. They must not really understand macro economics, finance or follow business data.

A lot of lower income people received a raise. If you are on unemployment in Havasu (as an example), you are now making $840.00 a week to not work. Do the math on that and you see that their hourly pay for a typical 40 hour work week is now over $20.00 an hour. That's better than most of the service jobs out there. I would also look at how people acted after the crash in 08. Many spent and had a good time until the bank literally took their toys.

I hope the economy can open as soon as possible, but there is going to be some pain coming. The government is not going to continue to pay people good money to sit home.
 

cofooter

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Boat sales are crazy. RE sales are crazy..

Honestly busier than ever on all the toy / fun fronts . You wouldn’t even think anything is wrong?
MOney is cheap, especially if you take it out of your house (future)
 

Havasu blue label

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Correct people are still spending. Personally I have 4 stocks I play with daily the bigs guys will come back it’s time to buy the cheap stock and take the loses every two days and buy again when down it was the same way in 1996
 

2Driver

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Boat sales are crazy. RE sales are crazy..

Honestly busier than ever on all the toy / fun fronts . You wouldn’t even think anything is wrong?

I hope it stays that way. Even if its delusional it helps the economy. 😁
 

lbhsbz

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Here’s what I see happening....

Furloughed employees don’t want to back to work because they’re making more money on unemployment with the extra $600/week deal...there is talk of extending that

Companies will have to come up with $30/hour to get employees back now...that were previously paid anywhere from minimum wage to $25/hour.

This will increase operating expenses considerably, which increases product/service prices to levels that consumers simply can’t afford...so the businesses and banks will have to eat it, or remain at low/no production until the end of the increased unemployment checks...how many businesses will still be alive at that point considering the above conditions?

When the unemployment funds run out and the extra $600/week goes away, we will have a significant problem on our hands I think...

I’m not sure we’re even at the beginning of this shitshow yet...

The tough question is what will occur first?...market/real estate crash or massive inflation? I’m hoping real estate dives first, so I can get back in to some cheap rental property which will ride the inflation boat way back up. Half of me is glad I lost my job...because when the new pay scales for different positions are established, they’ll have no choice but to be considerably higher than they are now...and getting a significant raise has always been difficult.

I have no idea what the stock market will do, but I would limit myself to day trades if I had the balls to get into it at all right now.
 
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my son handles my portfolio, I told him to sell, hoping to cut my loses...uh oh to late...



actually my lost came from a company that filed for chapter 11 and this was way before the pandemic. it's been steady so far this year, but still want to get out.
 
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ChumpChange

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Well they say the market is forward looking but apparently they aren't looking far enough forward where earnings are going to tank. I'm bearish but like @Xring01 said, you can't fight the Fed.
 

FishSniper

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Well they say the market is forward looking but apparently they aren't looking far enough forward where earnings are going to tank. I'm bearish but like @Xring01 said, you can't fight the Fed.
Yea right now is crap shoot. No way market should be as high as it is right now and I don’t see how the bottom doesn’t fall out at some point but the fed is the wildcard. I have bought some stuff to hold long term in IRA latley and if they drop I will add some down the line.
 

Xring01

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Getting people who are Un Employed, but making more back, can only do that for so long. The key is getting them motivated.

But what choice will they have, when the Un Employment $$$ dries up... They will go back to work, or become business owners, or homeless...

Its good to see that the majority all are looking at this situation in similar view points.

So I guess, the key to Bull or Bear, is the $$$ in the next stimulus package...
If its alot, the market will climb.
If its not much, the market will drop..

So my take aways are if your long anything, put close stop loss orders in place to hopefully protect you. Sell anything thats questionable.
 

arch stanton

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I heard some states are requiring you to go back if your employer calls and if you don’t the state will pull your benefits and make you repay what you got
I hope this is true and all states adopt this idea
 

LHC Kirby

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The ones that stay on the unemployment instead of getting back to work.... their former employers will need someone to replace them...... best to go back if/when you can.
 

ChumpChange

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The ones that stay on the unemployment instead of getting back to work.... their former employers will need someone to replace them...... best to go back if/when you can.

but will they need them? Businesses are going be leaning out.
 

SummitKarl

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I am going against the Warren Buffet odds on long term bets....that I can afford to loose if it happens
took my chances and rolled on 6 major airlines and 5 major cruise lines, all had steady 5yr charts till Feb and all pay dividends. so we will see if it comes back, the other thing I am thinking about is U.S. oil exploration with oil under $35bbl shale and fracking are not profitable so other sources are bound to come into play if oil stays low although I doubt that will happen, I read a while back that the Saudi economy is based on $50bbl oil so I am sure it will find it's way back to at least that 🤔
 

SummitKarl

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but will they need them? Businesses are going be leaning out.
spot on........I am sure allot of companies will use this to trim the fat they otherwise wouldn't be able to get rid of with all the B.S. labor laws
 

FishSniper

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I am going against the Warren Buffet odds on long term bets....that I can afford to loose if it happens
took my chances and rolled on 6 major airlines and 5 major cruise lines, all had steady 5yr charts till Feb and all pay dividends. so we will see if it comes back, the other thing I am thinking about is U.S. oil exploration with oil under $35bbl shale and fracking are not profitable so other sources are bound to come into play if oil stays low although I doubt that will happen, I read a while back that the Saudi economy is based on $50bbl oil so I am sure it will find it's way back to at least that 🤔
I have bought some united airlines the last few days and looking at a couple other airlines also.
 

Bobby V

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but will they need them? Businesses are going be leaning out.
We have been running lean for the last 6 weeks or so. Starting to get busy, looking to bring back some of the engineers that were furloughed.
 

SummitKarl

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We have been running lean for the last 6 weeks or so. Starting to get busy, looking to bring back some of the engineers that were furloughed.
yea whats going on in building, wholly crap....I am slammed it's a complete buying/building frenzy out here. Not in 20yrs have I seen so much so fast 🤔
 

CarolynandBob

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I have tried to buy 2 boats this week and both were sold when I put in an offer.
 
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WYRD

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Dow will test it's lows again in Q3. Cash on sidelines waiting for it. I don't see a v recovery so I'm positioning long with blue chip and small cap stocks in personal portfolio. Lower risk large cap with mix of fixed funds for retirement portfolio. Don't try to time the market, Tier your buy in over several months to spread out the risk.
 

lebel409

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I'm not as investment savvy as most of you. My take is that with the 1918 Flu the economy should have tanked...but the Great war propped the economy up big time. Investors felt bullet proof and kept getting into riskier stocks, banks into bad loans...then the crash.

I can see something like this happening again since the market is based as much on feeling as actual worth.

The bad money being printed is getting sold somewhere...better learn Mandarin.
 

Havasu blue label

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Yes it is busy crazy it’s not a recession it’s a big tax break for my clients take the money and save
 

Jgarrison

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My opinion, short term the market will remain pretty solid, its not scared of unemployment or poor earnings in the next few quarters. The government has made sure the economy will remain strong and banks solvent. Heck over a dozen of my employees won't come back to work unless they get a raise because they are making more on unemployment. About 80 have come back to work and are just happy and appreciative to be working. It is odd we are planning another stimulus for 3T dollars when as it stands now, pretty much everyone hasn't seen a financial burden. Unemployment is providing more money than most people make and many or most businesses received PPP funding now. It is frightening to me that I received over 1M dollars in PPP funding, to pay my employees to come back to work but the State and Feds are paying them more on unemployment to stay home??? Which means if I don't use this money on payroll in the next 8 weeks it's not forgiven and I am paying interest (1%) on money I borrowed to pay them but the government had a better offer for them???? Pretty sure Socialism is slowly prevailing here.

Anyways back to the topic. I have done really well in the stock market in the past two months, primarily in a few biotech companies and also buying MGM at $8, WYNN in the $50s and flipping them. I think pre election the market remain around where it is +/_ 10% and after the election we will see a little bit of a run (assuming Trump is re-elected) I am not very confident in the next 3-5 years though. The inflation from printing money is going to be crazy and low interest rates will become a long term issue as well. In 3-5 years we see real inflation which will cause a longer term more substantial unemployment issue.

The pain we should be feeling right now.....has to be felt somewhere, the government has done a great job deflecting it currently but the pain will be felt. Nothing is free and the pain will be deferred a few years.

The other variable to consider that can get me on a short term down turn is while unemployeement is really high right now, crazy high, the market feels it is temporary and hence why the market is where it is. If these businesses close down, well when the virus is over there isn't anywhere for them to go back to work. Right now you aren't hearing of many businesses completely going out of business or filing for bankruptcy. This is why the market assumes they have a place to go back to work when the economy re-opens. If this goes on much longer and these business close, file for bankruptcy well it will take years for businesses to start up, open up or have the confidence to borrow money to take the plunge to go back into business.
 

TCHB

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Dow will test it's lows again in Q3. Cash on sidelines waiting for it. I don't see a v recovery so I'm positioning long with blue chip and small cap stocks in personal portfolio. Lower risk large cap with mix of fixed funds for retirement portfolio. Don't try to time the market, Tier your buy in over several months to spread out the risk.
yes
 

EmpirE231

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1589563980656.png
 

Xring01

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Damn...
One very strange Market. On friday, I didnt think the market would be $800 on monday....
 

94Nautique

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There are alot of people on RDP that have alot of investing knowledge.
Thought I would share my thoughts.

When the market tanked on CV19, I had some $$$ on the sidelines, and went all in. I have done very very well. Some of the keys reasons I believe I did well, is due to the fact the US Gov poured about $1.4 Trillion into the economy. The market went up. A lesson I learned long time ago, is its stupid to fight the Fed Banks. Might as well take advantage. Knowing the Fed was opening up the check book, I went all in.

Now Pelosi, has another $3T deal thats going to be debated. I doubt the $3T will get approved, but I do believe more $$$ is coming. On the flip side, read an article that says the Un Employment rate could hit as high as 25%. WHOAH... Thats some scary stuff. Even at 20% Un Employment, thats a very serious hit to the economy.

So, I am no longer Bullish... more on the Bearish side. Pulling profits some of my CV19 investments, selling some completely. Planning to reduce LVGO to 50% of where it is now. Probably sell AMZN, and BYND.... Holding PCG - but thats a 2 year play.

Would love to here yall's opinion.
Bearish and why?
Bullish and why?
Selling? Holding? Buying more???
Any gems out there worth buying right now?
Soon to be 40 million unemployed. And still going. Not sure how anyone can think the market is ok, or more than just being held together with spit and bailing wire.
 

CLdrinker

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Dam Saudi investment firm whentcrazy and bought $714M of BA and $500M of Disney
 

CLdrinker

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Kinda tempted to sale today and try buy in a couple week when things settle back down
 

Xring01

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Soon to be 40 million unemployed. And still going. Not sure how anyone can think the market is ok, or more than just being held together with spit and bailing wire.

I truly agree with your thought process here.
Had the same thoughts when housing melt down and Quantative Easing $$$ was flowing into the banking system.
It made no sense to me at all. But the market went up.. While I sat on the sidelines...
Thats when I learned the term "you cant fight the fed"... (Meaning Fed throwing money at the problem, then the market will go up).
Which is why I didnt sell last friday, and sought yall's opinions.

Strange times for sure.
 

thetub

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Dam Saudi investment firm whentcrazy and bought $714M of BA and $500M of Disney

at the end of the day the safest place to invest in is the good ole USA . all these foreign investment groups invest here cause they dont trust their own economies and markets...

that or until the dollar aint the global currency anymore...:oops:
 

Xring01

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Dam Saudi investment firm whentcrazy and bought $714M of BA and $500M of Disney

What choice does the Saudi's have..
Put money in the lieing cheating Chinese run companys?
Invest in more oil... HA... HA HA... dude I just cracked myself up...
How about the European based company's? Nope... Brexit, euro, BK countrys, Germany in a world of shit due to there economy is based on gas power automobiles that are in a huge decline...
Russia?
How about Venezuala... cracking myself up again...

Where is the safest place to put your money... the U. S. Stock Market...
 

MSum661

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You have to "wisely" be engaged in this market right now.
A lot of upside with emphasis on quality.
These are the days.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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What choice does the Saudi's have..
Put money in the lieing cheating Chinese run companys?
Invest in more oil... HA... HA HA... dude I just cracked myself up...
How about the European based company's? Nope... Brexit, euro, BK countrys, Germany in a world of shit due to there economy is based on gas power automobiles that are in a huge decline...
Russia?
How about Venezuala... cracking myself up again...

Where is the safest place to put your money... the U. S. Stock Market...


And you just answered your own question as to why the market is not falling apart, and probably wont.
 

Englewood

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Im at a loss...I cut my losses a month ago and wake up to these wild positive swings. I've been trying to buy a boat for the last 2 weeks and everything I find is sold within a day...Im so confused...
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Im at a loss...I cut my losses a month ago and wake up to these wild positive swings. I've been trying to buy a boat for the last 2 weeks and everything I find is sold within a day...Im so confused...

We are only 2 months into this and beginning to reopen. People are still bullish there may be a relatively quick recovery.

That said this situation has never happened... so anyone trying to tell you what they think is going to happen is guessing.

I am of the opinion, it is not going to spring right back in 6 months, but there is not going to be a depression either.
 

94Nautique

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We are only 2 months into this and beginning to reopen. People are still bullish there may be a relatively quick recovery.

That said this situation has never happened... so anyone trying to tell you what they think is going to happen is guessing.

I am of the opinion, it is not going to spring right back in 6 months, but there is not going to be a depression either.
I hope. Though I think if we dont see consecutive weeks of multi million rehires in the next 6 months, I cant see how we avoid a depression. Unique times indeed.
 

ChumpChange

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I hope. Though I think if we dont see consecutive weeks of multi million rehires in the next 6 months, I cant see how we avoid a depression. Unique times indeed.

I know a business that Furloughed 40 employees and opened back up with 8. Rehiring like that is not going to happen.
 

Xring01

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Wondering if this will have an impact on the Baby Boomers, that had post poned retirement.
If they retired, opened the doors for others to take their former rolls, it could mitigate some of the damage.
 

Done-it-again

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I know a business that Furloughed 40 employees and opened back up with 8. Rehiring like that is not going to happen.

This.....

Will know more whats the econ is going to be like and the out come of the shut down caused in 4-6 months... That's when it will get interesting...
 

94Nautique

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This.....

Will know more whats the econ is going to be like and the out come of the shut down caused in 4-6 months... That's when it will get interesting...
Yep. The rehire math is scary. A million a week would take 40 weeks to get back to where we were 2 months ago, but that would be 40 straight weeks of perfection. We've never seen anything like that for 2 straight weeks, much less 40...

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