The Great Slow Down

[guest hs]

Anyone else experiencing this right now? It’s the slowest I have seen it in years in my business. I see it around town with similar buisness to mine. I know it’s not just me. Anyone have any input on this?

 

[HOOTER SLED-]

Rut roh...
It's a sign...

 

[charred1]

What type of business?

 

[riverbrian]

Yes

 

[RiverDave]

What type of business?

He has a boat repair and service shop

 

[RiverDave]

Weirdly I know the big shops are still slammed but I’d expect it to slow down for the first time in over three years in the next couple months..

Meaning it used to be seasonal.. even before Covid it was year round.. Covid was insane no matter what time of year it was..

I’d expect for them to get a small break in February

 

[cofooter]

Its gotta get worse before it gets better, thats where we are at, the company I work for is in the same boat, good luck to you.

 

[RiverDave]

Anyone else experiencing this right now? It’s the slowest I have seen it in years in my business. I see it around town with similar buisness to mine. I know it’s not just me. Anyone have any input on this?

If you need help with that problem I know a guy, that quite literally specializes in solving that very problem. Lol

 

[Tom Slick]

I am back to pre-scamdemic numbers and continuing to trend downward. I’m expecting things to continue to slow if not completely stop. Buckle up folks.

 

[lbhsbz]

September was pretty dead for me...and the first couple weeks of october. Just started picking back up though. Back to school time is historically slow in the automotive industry

 

[TimeBandit]

Been to this rodeo a few times now, this is just the beginning.

I mean if mainstream media says we will have a recession, it shall happen!

 

[Riverbottom]

Need to find a specialty niche market for snowbird season. A lot more RV repairs in your area than boat repairs from Oct. to April.

 

[DWC]

I called to get the Can Am annual maintenance done this morning. They’re a couple weeks out to get it in. Pretty close to where it was the last couple years.

 

[riverroyal]

Nope. Short tradesmen everyday

 

[FreeBird236]

I'm getting the feeling that the snowbirds are late. Went to the Havasu Landing Casino today on the 12:00pm boat, the wife and I were the only two inside, with 3 people up top, that is unusual for mid- October.

 

[Fastdadtsmith]

Boat shop by my office hasn't blocked my door in days. I thought he was just being nice. Quite a bit less activity last few weeks.

 

[Ladsm]

I'm getting the feeling that the snowbirds are late. Went to the Havasu Landing Casino today on the 12:00pm boat, the wife and I were the only two inside, with 3 people up top, that is unusual for mid- October.

I keep hearing alot of Snow Birds arent coming this year. Economy and Fuel prices.

 

[4Waters]

I keep hearing alot of Snow Birds arent coming this year. Economy and Fuel prices.

Shit, always looked forward to the "Stupid Snowbirds" thread

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I swear didn’t you post this exact thread pre covid?

Edit: Found it.

Slow August

Anyone else felling this in their business?

www.riverdavesplace.com

Are you slower than 3 years ago?

 

[Reddy Too]

Robby Gordon told him to.

 

[rickym20]

I keep hearing alot of Snow Birds arent coming this year. Economy and Fuel prices.

We haven’t locked in any birds for our Families house. Few inquiries but nothing else.

 

[bonesfab]

Busy as can be I have work till at least the middle of next year. We shall see what happens.

 

[Racer56]

We have been slammed for the last three years and have plenty of jobs booked through the middle of next year. We recently completed 3 large multi family projects, but it seems to be slowing down as the cost to build keeps increasing. Custom single family home projects are still coming in faster than we can do the work.

 

[spectra3279]

I'm getting the feeling that the snowbirds are late. Went to the Havasu Landing Casino today on the 12:00pm boat, the wife and I were the only two inside, with 3 people up top, that is unusual for mid- October.

The snowbirds can't afford the fuel. And if they are coming from Canada, can they even leave without having all 50 boosters?

 

[JFMFG]

We are in the golf course furnishing business. I’ve noticed it starting to slow. But not completely stop. Still ahead of pre Covid years though. Can’t complain I will take it while I can get it.

 

[JFMFG]

Anyone else experiencing this right now? It’s the slowest I have seen it in years in my business. I see it around town with similar buisness to mine. I know it’s not just me. Anyone have any input on this?

Would you say it is dribbling back to pre Covid?

 

[boatnam2]

In the refinery biz, people are crying, gas cars are dying the money just keeps on flying.

 

[HNL2LHC]

Busy as can be I have work till at least the middle of next year. We shall see what happens.

We are kind of in the same spot. Many customer have been placing orders and our manufacturing facilities have pushed out production times from 8 weeks to 32. We are currently out to the second quarter of 2023. We shall see if that continues. The good thing is that we are in the high end homes and they are still building their dream homes. Mid 2023 will be interesting.

 

[LakeMeadLavey]

23 years in the MX/Offroad industry on the mfg side. My company has slowed our future ordering and our sales have drastically declined in the last 60 days. Industry as a whole is feeling a major slowdown right now from the MFG to dealer level.

Last 2 years have been unreal but now dealers/retailers are buried in inventory and sales are dead. Our industry is blue collar based as well as a luxury item and always the first to see the slow downs. With inflation and just the costs of daily living skyrocketing I don't see things getting any better in the near future.

 

[FROGMAN524]

I’m waiting for 40% off RV stickers to come back so I can buy one. Another 6 months or longer?

 

[PRORACER7474]

now the million dollar question, how many have saved for the next slow down?

 

[JFMFG]

now the million dollar question, how many have saved for the next slow down?

I’m hoping many people have after 08 they should have learned their lesson.

 

[HNL2LHC]

now the million dollar question, how many have saved for the next slow down?

You talking 6 or 7 figure savings? Asking for a friend…..

 

[just_floatin]

Just made a shop appointment today for a new convertible top and seats here in town. Put half down for materials and the soonest the shop can start my car is January 16, 2023. Reputable restorations services do not appear to be slowing down at all.

 

[Carlos90041]

I’m waiting for 40% off RV stickers to come back so I can buy one. Another 6 months or longer?

Ha! Same here

 

[EmpirE231]

Yep, insurance biz is at a halt. We’re doing half the business we were 3 months ago. On the insurance side it’s mostly political right now in CA.

but also noticed much fewer calls from people insuring boats / jet skis etc this Summer, and now leading into off-road season, fewer calls to insure RV’s and side by sides etc.

Fewer homes and fewer cars being sold also impact business.

Talking to several friends In different industries, things are slowing down in general. Things are looking dicey going forward.

 

[Melloyellovector]

We have contracts for a good part of next year, calls have been pretty consistent still. How ever there have been a lot of ”shoppers” last few months. People looking for 2018/19 prices. Not gonna happen. Also more people asking about financing.

 

[Happy Smitty]

Commercial construction is still busy. I have contracts signed with work for the next 14 months and about to sign more taking me out to 18 months.

 

[twocents]

I spoke with one of Havasu's largest marine and RV dealers a few days ago. They did not sell a new boat from July 4th through Labor Day. Prior to that they were selling 3 to 5 boats per week. On the RV side, things have been a little better with moderate to slow new RV sales. Also a problem, boat manufacturers are now just finishing up 2022 models which couldn't be shipped to dealers because of critical parts shortages. Now those component shortages are disappearing and boat manufactures are trying to shove 2022 new models down the throats of dealers at the end of the year -- dealers don't want out-of-date models in their inventory to start the new year -- they want 2023 models to sell. I also have a family member in the retail bicycle industry -- bicycle sales have been in the tank since late May -- fortunately his company is sitting on a very comfortable cash reserve and he has started buying up bicycle inventory at pennies on the dollar from financially hurting bike shops. He did this with great success during the 2008-2009 recession. I have another relative who works for a large commercial grading company in Corona -- they have pleny of work to take them through the end of this year -- after that, nothing on the books 2023.

 

[JDKRXW]

The snowbirds can't afford the fuel. And if they are coming from Canada, can they even leave without having all 50 boosters?

We can leave - the issue is; will you guys let us in

 

[TPC]

Usually sold out by now Disney ships on the winter cruises we booked are running only 30 to 60% booked. Red Flag. Used to be if not booked by now you were out for the season. Cancelation window is still open so they are sweating the action.

Discounts of 35% no extra cost up to 5 in a cabin, free upgrade once onboard. Never saw that in the past.

Hotels and cruise lines slow biz are the first to indicate a recession, the first to signal a recovery according to Forbes. No problem booking at discount rates.
Damfino.

Local car dealers are now well stocked with the rides we like.

 

[Orange Juice]

Wait for the first “hard freeze.

 

[gqchris]

So you mean all the primadonna boat shops that wouldn't call me back will probably now answer the phone?

Shout out to So Cal Speed and Marine who went above and beyond fixing my not so cool Larson. They went above and beyond and did what they promised in a great time frame to save my booked trip. Excellent Service, and I am a customer now.

 

[Bpracing1127]

I am in the defense industry and work for a major prime contractor. We are busier than ever.

From a technology standpoint we are really behind the Russians and Chinese right now so they are spending money left and right to catch up

 

[Riverbound]

We are seeing a definite change in putchasing habits. Lots more financing and people are being more selective with whom does the work.

They say we are going to see a recession….my belief is it’s already here.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

We are seeing a definite change in putchasing habits. Lots more financing and people are being more selective with whom does the work.

They say we are going to see a recession….my belief is it’s already here.

Been here for a few months now, but wouldn't know it based on the crowds I see at restaurants over the weekends. Blue collar workers / businesses won't see much or any recession at all.

As for the OP, you gotta market man. Candidly, I constantly forget you have a shop in town because I don't see any marketing (RDP, Facebook, Instagram, ETC) so not top of mind.

 

[4Waters]

Just saw on Fox 11 that Bloomberg says 100% chance we will be in a recession in 12 months

 

[Desert Whaler]

I talked with a buddy of mine who owns a tackle store & asked how it's been this year for him.
He said, "Thank God the fishing was so good or we'd be hosed due to gas prices".
Said he did really well on fishing 'essentials' this year, but luxury items / non essentials sat on the shelf and didn't move at all.
This is a typical slow-down time for him, with a small bump up for Christmas . . . but he's worried for 2023 & beyond.

 

[jailbird141]

I can tell you what hasn't slowed down. Traffic. Even with gas prices through the roof, high unemployment number, inflation and a recession on the way, traffic is still as bad as ever. I would think it would start thinning out but it hasn't. When is that going to happen?

 

[lbhsbz]

I took a little different approach...and have been trying to as money allows since when I started this business. I'm sitting real heavy on inventory (all paid for, none financed). I noticed a problem with stock...nobody had any. In my garage, I likely have a better stock of components for calipers and kits I deal with than some of the big players. I'm not necessarily concerned with my business slowing down...that would be fine, I could use a break. I'm concerned with my suppliers slowing down, laying off workers, and lead times going back to 6 months or more. I'm positioned to be the only game in town on the products I produce/sell. Also have enough money in the bank to go a couple years if I had no income starting today. Sort of goes against everything I've been told by "successful business people", but we'll see how it pans out.