2020 Recession?

[farmo83]

I work in oil trading and its def going to be a rough go until demand picks up now that russia and saudi are having a pissing match on oil prices.

 

[Racey]

The Saudis have the wealth to weather it, Russia not so much, Russia's game here to to take a swipe at US markets while they are in the middle of the corona virus shit.

Doubt it will go on much longer, but in the meantime it's gonna make some excellent buying opportunities for those with cash on hand.

 

[jetur]

Everything is in cycles. Yes we have a downturn about every 10 yrs give or take. Then the economy works back up again.

I think the word recession gets over used. For me a recession is what happened in 2008 or in the 1920s. It takes a hundred year cycle for the economy to get that shitty.

Yes, I think we are all smart for not taking good times for granted and I believe we will all be less leveraged than we were in 2008. Based off the historical cycles I don't believe we will see another 2008.

 

[jetur]

The Saudis have the wealth to weather it, Russia not so much, Russia's game here to to take a swipe at US markets while they are in the middle of the corona virus shit.

Doubt it will go on much longer, but in the meantime it's gonna make some excellent buying opportunities for those with cash on hand.

I bought a bunch of ERX this morning, hopefully it works out. Lol

 

[mbrown2]

Recession=Two consecutive quarters of declining growth....stock market aside where paper value can fluctuate.....where are all these companies that are reporting negative earnings. With the shutdown of goods manufacturing it China it will definitely have a hit to the manufacturing sector and all other sectors affiliated. However just because the trading robots shutdown to try and bring some rationalization into market it is not recession by stock market alone.

 

[HitIt]

I bought a bunch of ERX this morning, hopefully it works out. Lol

That is pretty ballsy, or something. I dont think the lack of demand due to Coronavirus has been fully priced in yet. Are you expecting Russia or the Saudi's to tap out?

With a 30% drop in prices on a 3x leveraged fund, ERX was probably on the brink of implosion this morning.

 

[evantwheeler]

I bought a bunch of ERX this morning, hopefully it works out. Lol

ERX, or ERY?

 

[pronstar]

The Saudis have the wealth to weather it, Russia not so much, Russia's game here to to take a swipe at US markets while they are in the middle of the corona virus shit.

Doubt it will go on much longer, but in the meantime it's gonna make some excellent buying opportunities for those with cash on hand.

Yup.

I think Putin’s long-game is to cripple North American fracking profitability to the point of collapse.

Once business starts pulling back, the political will to ban fracking becomes easier...basically he gets the left to do his bidding.


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[jetur]

That is pretty ballsy, or something. I dont think the lack of demand due to Coronavirus has been fully priced in yet. Are you expecting Russia or the Saudi's to tap out?

With a 30% drop in prices on a 3x leveraged fund, ERX was probably on the brink of implosion this morning.

The coronavirus could bring it down more, not expecting anyone to tap out yet. ERX was $18 1/1/20. As of this morning it was right about $2.60. Panic in the street = Time to Buy. We will see if it pays off.

 

[jetur]

ERX, or ERY?

ERX

 

[farmo83]

We'll see how long it last. Saudi needs 80 ish dollar crude to balance their state budget. Russia needs far less. Also Aramco is public now. This could go for a while as with interest rates so low and projected to go lower American shale players will have cheap access to capital for the near future. Also if they are smart they will have hedged. Once hedges run out it will be a whole different ball game. Once the corona virus abates demand will start to come back online but not enough to clear this glut for quite a while.

 

[Havasu Rehab]

The coronavirus could bring it down more, not expecting anyone to tap out yet. ERX was $18 1/1/20. As of this morning it was right about $2.60. Panic in the street = Time to Buy. We will see if it pays off.

Fingers are crossed. Just bought a hundred shares.


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[gqchris]

Fingers are crossed. Just bought a hundred shares.


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Same here but at 2.90 or so.

 

[Havasu Rehab]

What do you guys think about GUSH? Currently trading around $1.40. The year high was $138.00.


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[gqchris]

What do you guys think about GUSH? Currently trading around $1.40. The year high was $138.00.


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Damn .095 right now....

 

[Havasu Rehab]

Damn .095 right now....

Yup, I bought in at around $1.30.


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[COCA COLA COWBOY]

A broken clock is right once a day. Keep talking about a recession and sooner or later you will be correct. I think we are a ways out though. All those jobs that both parties have been shipping overseas are starting to come back. If the people on benefits are pushed to get jobs you will see a shift in this country which will be unparalleled.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Great answer it’s going to be like 1986 very fast turn around

 

[530RL]

A broken clock is right once a day. Keep talking about a recession and sooner or later you will be correct. I think we are a ways out though. All those jobs that both parties have been shipping overseas are starting to come back. If the people on benefits are pushed to get jobs you will see a shift in this country which will be unparalleled.

Just once a day?

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

Just once a day?

Yeah, twice if you don't do AM/PM!

 

[zhandfull]

Well that was a crazy day in the markets. Little pump for tomorrow before dumping again?

 

[TPC]

I’m thinking we’ll know by mid April what the future will hold.

As soon as the virus passes and vaccines get up to speed the economy may quickly reset.

 

[530RL]

It’s hard not to imagine at least one quarter of negative growth in 2020 absent additional government fiscal stimulus above and beyond the 1 trillion per year currently being provided to the economy by the federal government.

If TPC is correct and the virus passes with the warming months, the question remains as to whether it comes back in the fall like the large H1N1 pandemic did in 1918. The fall recurrence was much worse than the original outbreak in the Spring of 18.

With no large scale vaccine for at least a year or 18 months and no proven treatment currently available, regardless of how serious this really is, the economic damage is done at least for the Spring and I suspect people will be jittery and cautious come fall and as a result, there will be some negative economic impact relative to what it would have been without this virus.

 

[nameisbond]

Its likely Canada will see a recession this year. We are heavily invested in oil, the price war between Russia and the Arabs will hurt the biggest component in Canada's economic engine. Before the virus, several big players had already pulled out of Canada's oil and gas industries.

 

[zhandfull]

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't using up a little more credit and conserving some cash the last couple weeks. Anybody remember when their credit lines were reduced or shut down during the Great Recession?

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[gqchris]

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't using up a little more credit and conserving some cash the last couple weeks. Anybody remember when their credit lines were reduced or shut down during the Great Recession?

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Yup, My score dropped like 70 points during that. I have close to 100k now in open credit. I can see banks tightening belts and dropping us that havent used it lately.

 

[zhandfull]

Well, this week was interesting.

Anybody left that can still not see a recession coming this year?

 

[GRADS]

Anybody remember when their credit lines were reduced or shut down during the Great Recession?

I remember it well. I remember I was at my buddy's marine shop paying for some work he'd done for me on my boat. The work came to a little over $1000. I gave him my credit card which had a $10,000 limit with maybe $200 charged on it. He tells me it's declined. I'm like quit fucking with me and run the card. Declined again. So I give him another card...same thing happens. I'm like this is not good, so I start calling the CC companies. It turns out they dropped my limit from $10,000 to $1,000 basically overnight...and it wasn't just one company. Mind you at the time I had an 800+ credit score and had never been late on a payment.

 

[HNL2LHC]

Well, this week was interesting.

Anybody left that can still not see a recession coming this year?

Hoping that things will bounce back. There was a lot in the pipeline before everything started to go down hill.

 

[zhandfull]

Well it's been a week since my original post. Stock futures opened down and I'm dropping this link here.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[zhandfull]

Two weeks ago there was a lot more optimism than today.

 

[nameisbond]

Two weeks ago there was a lot more optimism than today.

Goldman has gotten more grim and so has Morgan Stanley: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ees-u-s-economy-plunging-30-in-second-quarter and https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-us-gdp-recession-economists-forecast-140600768.html

 

[zhandfull]

Wake me when jobs start going away. We gained a quarter million in Feb. We aren’t close yet.

Okay, time to wake up.

Not being a dick, just pointing out how fast things have changed in just a few weeks.

 

[NicPaus]

Okay, time to wake up.

Not being a dick, just pointing out have fast things have changed in just a few weeks.

This all your FAULT!!!

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Okay, time to wake up.

Not being a dick, just pointing out how fast things have changed in just a few weeks.

You are right. We are there, and I’m awake. I’ve thrown some more money at the markets, waiting to see what happens, may throw in a bunch more.

 

[GRADS]

Should probably change the title of this thread from "2020 Recession?" to "2020 Depression?" unfortunately.

 

[zhandfull]

Should probably change the title of this thread from "2020 Recession?" to "2020 Depression?" unfortunately.

The thought had crossed my mind but I'm trying to be a little more optimistic.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The thought had crossed my mind but I'm trying to be a little more optimistic.

It’s almost been a month. We don’t even know if we are depressed yet.

 

[nameisbond]

The repercussion of closing down most of the economy is going to hurt.

 

[zhandfull]

It’s almost been a month. We don’t even know if we are depressed yet.

I watched this 1929 Depression Documentary this morning for a quick refresher on that event.

There are definitely some similarities between 1929 and recent events (past and present).

I'm not talking about the Covid-19 pandemic, that is just the pin that popped the bubble.
I'm talking more about the enthusiasm for stocks, investments, real estate, retirement accounts and leveraging of anything and everything. The FED has been pumping out cheap money for years now. Personally, I'm having a hard time seeing a positive end to the cheap endless money supply. There are a lot of non profitable companies that will probably collapse, both big and small.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I watched this 1929 Depression Documentary this morning for a quick refresher on that event.

There are definitely some similarities between 1929 and recent events (past and present).

I'm not talking about the Covid-19 pandemic, that is just the pin that popped the bubble.
I'm talking more about the enthusiasm for stocks, investments, real estate, retirement accounts and leveraging of anything and everything. The FED has been pumping out cheap money for years now. Personally, I'm having a hard time seeing a positive end to the cheap endless money supply. There are a lot of non profitable companies that will probably collapse, both big and small.

Oh yea, this is not going to end well. There will be a lot of financial casualties.

 

[TCHB]

I have felt for a while now the house of cards would fall. People buying everything on cheap credit. Now this hits and yes I think people are going to get hurt.

 

[SoCalDave]

My daughter and SIL are about 2 weeks away from listing their condo for sale. Current market is about 350k and I'm pushing them like crazy to get it listed/sold ASAP before things take a turn.

 

[NicPaus]

My daughter and SIL are about 2 weeks away from listing their condo for sale. Current market is about 350k and I'm pushing them like crazy to get it listed/sold ASAP before things take a turn.

Friend listed 5 days ago for 10k more than they thought. In Escrow as of last night. Still low inventory for his area. Hope it gets listed and SOLD QUICK!

 

[SoCalDave]

Friend listed 5 days ago for 10k more than they thought. In Escrow as of last night. Still low inventory for his area. Hope it gets listed and SOLD QUICK!

Yeah its clean and other units in the complex have sold fast. Just want them to get what the market can at it's current value...they fuckin owe me big time!
The shit we do for our kids...

 

[CarolynandBob]

Any opinions on when to get back in the market? I got out Feb 14 at 28K something. I have been waiting to get back in, but still think it will go down. I know I should have gotten back in at 18K, but I thought it would hit 15K. I know either way that I will make money on this.

 

[zhandfull]

Hard to time the market. I started buying in when it became a bear market in phases. 10% when market was down 20% from all time highs and another 10% when down 30% from the high. I will increase phased buy in percentage as the market goes further down from the all time high.

With that said I don't think you missed an opportunity to buy in. There should be many more to come the rest of the year and possibly next. Gut feeling is next couple months might be the sweet spot though.

A word of caution, my day job is in construction, I'm no financial advisor.

 

[brgrcru]

I think this entire situation , is the game of Jenga.

 

[zhandfull]

Since Grads is no longer here, I will just say this. I told you the recession was coming. Pretty close timing as well.

Markets Soar As US Economy Ends Its Longest Expansion In History, Enters Recession

The U.S. economy put its longest streak of economic expansion behind it in February, as it entered recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic.What Happened On Monday, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which maintains a chronology of business cycles in...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[HCP3]

Since Grads is no longer here, I will just say this. I told you the recession was coming. Pretty close timing as well.

Markets Soar As US Economy Ends Its Longest Expansion In History, Enters Recession

The U.S. economy put its longest streak of economic expansion behind it in February, as it entered recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic.What Happened On Monday, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which maintains a chronology of business cycles in...

finance.yahoo.com

Congrats?