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2021 housing market predictions....

badgas

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All I want to know is who is buying all the houses in california? Im not smart but I'm not an idiot where is the money coming from to afford a house in california?
I have been in my home for 21 years. Houses in my hood are now 1.2+ Any time we get new neighbors there is usually an MD or two.
There are still a lot of people here that make big money. Also a lot of people that are buyinig up. They paid 650K in 2009 sold in 2012 for 800K bought in 2012 for 850K sold in 2015 for 975K bought in 2016 for 1 million sold in 2020 for 1.2 and now buyinig in at 1.4 with low rates etc.

Also remember just becasue someone is approved for a loan does not mean they can afford that home, huge differnce.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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It doesn't get any plainer than this chart all gain and no pain we have far eclipsed the last high.

View attachment 968963

Wages have been lagging behind.

View attachment 968964

This is the definition of unsustainable.

The housing market isnt even where the pain is... Its just along for the ride.
All that chart shows me is that if I want to invest in something for longer than a handful of years, it should be real estate. :)
 

bldrinker

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All I want to know is who is buying all the houses in california? Im not smart but I'm not an idiot where is the money coming from to afford a house in california?
Low interest loans!!!! Sign and drive lol
 

bldrinker

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I have been in my home for 21 years. Houses in my hood are now 1.2+ Any time we get new neighbors there is usually an MD or two.
There are still a lot of people here that make big money. Also a lot of people that are buyinig up. They paid 650K in 2009 sold in 2012 for 800K bought in 2012 for 850K sold in 2015 for 975K bought in 2016 for 1 million sold in 2020 for 1.2 and now buyinig in at 1.4 with low rates etc.

Also remember just becasue someone is approved for a loan does not mean they can afford that home, huge differnce.
Last paragraph sums it up nicely. Just because you got it don’t mean you can keep it.
I have come to find out most people live pay check to pay check. Very few have a strict budget.

I am often criticized for being a cheap ass. This household has 2 incomes. But can run off of one.

I sleep well at night.
 

motormonkey

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All I want to know is who is buying all the houses in california? Im not smart but I'm not an idiot where is the money coming from to afford a house in california?
China is snapping up everything. The Chinese government will back private purchases of homes in the US. The Chinese also have the largest middle class and millionairs. I often wonder if CA is getting crashed financially/quality of life on purpose so it will drive people out for those full cash offers. The Chinese have to expand or their empire or it will will die. They own allot in mexico, south america, and recently in the bahamas.
They won't have to start a war to conquer us these days, just look how cheap politicians are bought for.
 

nameisbond

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Its insane here. Developers are buying up the neighborhood I'm in. Most houses on this street are 4acre parcels. I'm moving at the end of the month and two days after I'm gone so is the house. Its being tore down for townhomes. So is the house next door. The developer paid $3.8 million for the house I'm in. Paid roughly the same for the house next door. They just bought two houses up the street for $4.5million. They'll be tore down too for town homes. Its all Chinese money.

I think they are over building townhomes and condos in this town. It will crash sooner then later. But I don't think it will be this year.
 

pronstar

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China is snapping up everything. The Chinese government will back private purchases of homes in the US. The Chinese also have the largest middle class and millionairs. I often wonder if CA is getting crashed financially/quality of life on purpose so it will drive people out for those full cash offers. The Chinese have to expand or their empire or it will will die. They own allot in mexico, south america, and recently in the bahamas.
They won't have to start a war to conquer us these days, just look how cheap politicians are bought for.
China is also betting BIG in Africa with massive infrastructure projects.


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Carrera205

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Houses already “to the moon’d”. And the ones that do come up get bought cash or by chi nuh money. The American dream is a fairy tale for my generation unless you live in Palmdale or move to Texas.
 

Carrera205

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China is snapping up everything. The Chinese government will back private purchases of homes in the US. The Chinese also have the largest middle class and millionairs. I often wonder if CA is getting crashed financially/quality of life on purpose so it will drive people out for those full cash offers. The Chinese have to expand or their empire or it will will die. They own allot in mexico, south america, and recently in the bahamas.
They won't have to start a war to conquer us these days, just look how cheap politicians are bought for.
Literal horse shit Americans are being pushed out by Chinese overlords
 

RodnJen

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Houses already “to the moon’d”. And the ones that do come up get bought cash or by chi nuh money. The American dream is a fairy tale for my generation unless you live in Palmdale or move to Texas.
ok. There have been 5 homes sell on my street the last 9 months. They are all young, hardworking families. Nothing has sold for less than seven figures.

Interesting vid.
 
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traquer

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China is also betting BIG in Africa with massive infrastructure projects.


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I think that's a big risk and they're having big issues there. They're not only corrupt like our politicians, they're also incompetent lol. They had to shut down a billion dollar project recently.

But their bets in the US are solid, also Chinese are going heavy into Europe like Italy. Even Eastern Europe.
 

nameisbond

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These are the remaining listings on my street: Langley, BC MLS® Listings & Real Estate for Sale | REW considering what $3million buys here, I'm waiting for the correction to buy. I'm putting a deposit on a six month lease. It goes month to month after the six months. Think it will take a year for the market to cool here.

The government has farm land in a trust. The land can't be developed. The government to prevent Chinese from buying farm land and building mega mansion (they where doing that) have put a 5k sqft. size cap on houses. Farm land is cheaper, but stays up with inflation. Plan is to buy farm land and build a decent sized house. Never move again.
 

Carrera205

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ok. There have been 5 homes sell on my street the last 9 months. They are all young, hardworking families. Nothing has sold for less than seven figures.

Interesting vid.
yeah some of my young co workers have purchased homes as well recently. They are
A. Both working making 6 figures and are lucky enough to have grandma and grandpa to watch the kids
B. Same situation as above but no kids
C. Sold first house for huge profit and had a nice down payment.
D. Got a inheritance or mom and dad paid 25%.
For a normal family unit like mine we bring in around 150k a year. And u less I mortgage myself to the hilt on a 600k pos house I’m never gona be able to buy. And I used to think that was a good income. With rent in ca so absolutely absurd and prices of just basic needs it’s almost impossible to save anything
 

RodnJen

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yeah some of my young co workers have purchased homes as well recently. They are
A. Both working making 6 figures and are lucky enough to have grandma and grandpa to watch the kids
B. Same situation as above but no kids
C. Sold first house for huge profit and had a nice down payment.
D. Got a inheritance or mom and dad paid 25%.
For a normal family unit like mine we bring in around 150k a year. And u less I mortgage myself to the hilt on a 600k pos house I’m never gona be able to buy. And I used to think that was a good income. With rent in ca so absolutely absurd and prices of just basic needs it’s almost impossible to save anything
True, it’s not easy. The wealth transfer between generations is at an all time high as well. my mom was available to watch my kids a couple days a week. That was a huge help. My wife works part time, me full time to find the right balance between family and comfort.

Like I said, it’s not easy, but digging in and compromising helps.
 
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BHC Vic

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Kids... I spend a lot of money for childcare and school. Still better than not having them though.
 

Carrera205

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True, it’s not easy. The wealth transfer between generations is at an all time high as well. my mom was available to watch my kids a couple days a week. That was a huge help. My wife works part time, me full time to find the right balance between family and comfort.

Like I said, it’s not easy, but digging in and compromising helps.
True that man good for you. I wish i had family to help but we are flyin solo 😂
 

Bpracing1127

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I’m 35 all my friends that are buying houses are either doing it in another state or they are maxed out on the house here at say 750-1m. They are house poor
 

Bear Down

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I empathize with bldrinker, I think hes a bit younger than me, but went through the same familiar issues I went through with wife 1.0, he stuck with his wife though LOL... Anyhoo, its a hard pill swallowed to ever forget 2008 era when you personally experienced self inflicted hard ship and economy failing at the same time. I have a question for RE Agents on here on the know... Purchased my house in Upland in 2018, thinking I way over paid for it at that time @ $485k and as I sit here in 2021, I am in great shape in Paper Equity. As someone noted in this thread many for sale signs that are up are in Chinese, also my in laws in a newer Eastvale development have 2 neighbors that own their homes that are Chinese citizens and at times the home sits vacant for months at a time until they come back or have family stay there. I guess the question I have is this... are all the home purchases in the US that are done by Chinese/Foreign investment groups have a US Based business doing the buying or since the Investment groups are buying properties cash, does the US care if a foreign buyer comes in and buys land? Never really knew the answer to this question that I have wondered about.
 

bldrinker

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I empathize with bldrinker, I think hes a bit younger than me, but went through the same familiar issues I went through with wife 1.0, he stuck with his wife though LOL... Anyhoo, its a hard pill swallowed to ever forget 2008 era when you personally experienced self inflicted hard ship and economy failing at the same time. I have a question for RE Agents on here on the know... Purchased my house in Upland in 2018, thinking I way over paid for it at that time @ $485k and as I sit here in 2021, I am in great shape in Paper Equity. As someone noted in this thread many for sale signs that are up are in Chinese, also my in laws in a newer Eastvale development have 2 neighbors that own their homes that are Chinese citizens and at times the home sits vacant for months at a time until they come back or have family stay there. I guess the question I have is this... are all the home purchases in the US that are done by Chinese/Foreign investment groups have a US Based business doing the buying or since the Investment groups are buying properties cash, does the US care if a foreign buyer comes in and buys land? Never really knew the answer to this question that I have wondered about.
Lol no I kicked wife 1.0 down the road 2010/2011.
Dam near lost my house because of her. She was an alcoholic an rubbed of on me and I turned into one too. DUI was the best thing that ever happened to me.
I needed a good slap across the face to get my head out of my ass.

10yrs later my shits squared away nicely.
 

Bear Down

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Lol no I kicked wife 1.0 down the road 2010/2011.
Dam near lost my house because of her. She was an alcoholic an rubbed of on me and I turned into one too. DUI was the best thing that ever happened to me.
I needed a good slap across the face to get my head out of my ass.

10yrs later my shits squared away nicely.
Funny.... 2012 for me...... Some lives just parallel each other... LOL
 

bonesfab

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Well I hope it doesn't go t shit as I just bought a second house to hedge against inflation. Got a fair price from a buddy. A half acre in Thousand Oaks with a 8 car garage I figure cant really go wrong. I bought my first house in 2001, Thought I paid too much. I opened my business in 2003. Then 2007 came along with a divorce at the peak of the market which put me upside down for a while. Fortunetly business never really faltered. This go round seems a little different with the gov. printing so much money. Interesting times for sure.
 

v6toy4x

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To sound un sympathetic, I am hoping for a dip so that houses in the valley or N cal will drop while those if the bay area proper hang on just to hedge retirement relocation plans. It would be like hitting a small lotto.

My luck I will buy a retirement home and then the market will crash over night. All my equity in the house I need to sell will evaporate, kinda reverse lotto!

I will keep watching this, you guys are much more intune with your graphs and projections than I.
 

motormonkey

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China is also betting BIG in Africa with massive infrastructure projects.


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That's how they buy hearts and minds, they make investments in the area they plan on exploiting. Pretty smart. Fix the place up and then take over.
They were in Afghanistan also getting all the mineral rights.....
 

DrunkenSailor

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To sound un sympathetic, I am hoping for a dip so that houses in the valley or N cal will drop while those if the bay area proper hang on just to hedge retirement relocation plans. It would be like hitting a small lotto.

My luck I will buy a retirement home and then the market will crash over night. All my equity in the house I need to sell will evaporate, kinda reverse lotto!

I will keep watching this, you guys are much more intune with your graphs and projections than I.
If you're in it for the long haul I think you'll be fine. Its the person who is looking to buy and then looses income or needs to sell for a new job, etc... that will get hurt.
 

bocco

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These are the remaining listings on my street: Langley, BC MLS® Listings & Real Estate for Sale | REW considering what $3million buys here, I'm waiting for the correction to buy. I'm putting a deposit on a six month lease. It goes month to month after the six months. Think it will take a year for the market to cool here.

The government has farm land in a trust. The land can't be developed. The government to prevent Chinese from buying farm land and building mega mansion (they where doing that) have put a 5k sqft. size cap on houses. Farm land is cheaper, but stays up with inflation. Plan is to buy farm land and build a decent sized house. Never move again.
Even with the exchange rate those prices are insane.
 

nameisbond

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Even with the exchange rate those prices are insane.
The prices are nuts. The city has pre-approved the area for condos/townhomes. Makes the properties very valuable to a developer. I think they are over building condos/townhomes here, the under construction developments are all over the place.
 

Havasu blue label

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You must not be in the states they can’t bring money over that easy . In March most visa will expire for them
 

HNL2LHC

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Looking at comps today, like I do each week. I think that these three are sort of comps to the house we bought last December for around $250K. Looks like the $399k is high but i hope that they get the $$$. In addition our tenants can’t find a house to rent in the city and the lease is up at the end of this month. Only thing the property managers have available is two 1 bedroom apartments. Crazy times for sure!!!!!

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Heylam

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In California, the next big earthquake will turn the housing market upside down. Not if, but when.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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If that house on Buckboard sells for that I will be amazed. My neighbor and I were just talking about that one last weekend.
 

HNL2LHC

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If that house on Buckboard sells for that I will be amazed. My neighbor and I were just talking about that one last weekend.
Agreed!!! Looking a couple years ago and a house sold in 2018 and sold again last year for over $100k more. Things are crazy!!!
 

77hallett

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We just got back from looking in Albuquerque and most resales that are halfway decent can’t stay on the market for more than 12 hours. We decided to build because of it.
 

2Driver

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Friends just bought a home in Ahwatukee AZ. A phx burb.

There were 8 other people submitting contracts on the house.
 

DaveH

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well im going the doom route.

sold my home last night. i lived in a more exclusive and niche area in NV. the results in having a smaller buying pool and as such, takes a little longer to sell. the average home sold in 60-90 days. mine sold in 30 with a considerably higher price per sqft.

its not just the house. selling my sports car, one of my off road cars, all sorts of stuff.

i agree that the market situation is different then 2008. mainly.....a bunch of low income earners arent either in houses way beyond their income level, or own 5 homes.

obviously the govt is propping up the banks and that's the only reason there hasn't been mass foreclosures and probably wont be. and, unlike 2008, many have equity, although if the value plummets, that can dry up quickly. that was part of the snowball affect in 2008, where so many paid huge sums and when the value dropped, simply bailed because they didn't want to be so deeply upside down.

but the govt just cant print forever.....even though that's what they have been doing. to me this is nothing more then a musical chairs game and the govt just keeps playing the music, removing chairs by printing money, but keeping the music going so nobody has to sit.

this cant continue. it wont be a housing crisis, but an ecomoinc crash that tanks the stock market, 401Ks and other retirement savings disappearing, pretty much a collapse like russia saw 30 years ago.

i just don't see any way out of this. the govt just handing out money and keeping everyone at home with the flu with no end in sight....well......sonner or later its GOING to hit the breaking point. while cash will be worth less....still...to me.....being zero debt and prepared for this will make all the difference in the world.
 

2Driver

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Economy stalls Government injects money, Business shuttered government injects more money, 7% unemployment more money, pay the debt and buy bonds print more money.

Its like a car on empty that gets pushed to the top of the hill and when is starts rolling down the other side everybody starts to party like it’s going to keep going on it’s own.
 

riverroyal

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Ive heard house poor a few times. You are not really house poor.
500000 house with a 3000 monthly mortgage. at 20 years you have paid about 700ish after interest. Maybe more but you get the picture.
At 20 years the house is worth 1000000. You made 300000......but not really, you made more
IF you DIDNT have a mortgage and paid 3000 a month in rent you would have paid 700000ish with nothing when your done in 20 years.
SO in reality you not house poor at all. Not owning a home is giving away money
 

HNL2LHC

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Ive heard house poor a few times. You are not really house poor.
500000 house with a 3000 monthly mortgage. at 20 years you have paid about 700ish after interest. Maybe more but you get the picture.
At 20 years the house is worth 1000000. You made 300000......but not really, you made more
IF you DIDNT have a mortgage and paid 3000 a month in rent you would have paid 700000ish with nothing when your done in 20 years.
SO in reality you not house poor at all. Not owning a home is giving away money
Yep, things are totally being spun as it can’t be done and the last generation screw the newer ones. Not buying a house ASAP is making it worse. I have run the numbers many times for younger adults showing that it is possible. They just done want to work for it. Then i have a guy in his late 50s that never bought. He has been forced a couple of time to move when the rental is not available any longer AND rents just keep going up each year. SMH
 

HotRod82

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well im going the doom route.

sold my home last night. i lived in a more exclusive and niche area in NV. the results in having a smaller buying pool and as such, takes a little longer to sell. the average home sold in 60-90 days. mine sold in 30 with a considerably higher price per sqft.

its not just the house. selling my sports car, one of my off road cars, all sorts of stuff.

i agree that the market situation is different then 2008. mainly.....a bunch of low income earners arent either in houses way beyond their income level, or own 5 homes.

obviously the govt is propping up the banks and that's the only reason there hasn't been mass foreclosures and probably wont be. and, unlike 2008, many have equity, although if the value plummets, that can dry up quickly. that was part of the snowball affect in 2008, where so many paid huge sums and when the value dropped, simply bailed because they didn't want to be so deeply upside down.

but the govt just cant print forever.....even though that's what they have been doing. to me this is nothing more then a musical chairs game and the govt just keeps playing the music, removing chairs by printing money, but keeping the music going so nobody has to sit.

this cant continue. it wont be a housing crisis, but an ecomoinc crash that tanks the stock market, 401Ks and other retirement savings disappearing, pretty much a collapse like russia saw 30 years ago.

i just don't see any way out of this. the govt just handing out money and keeping everyone at home with the flu with no end in sight....well......sonner or later its GOING to hit the breaking point. while cash will be worth less....still...to me.....being zero debt and prepared for this will make all the difference in the world.
Sadly, this is where my head is these days...I hate to be a doom and gloomer but look at the job numbers released yesterday. Almost zero growth, 90% of the jobs added were in the government. We are down about 10 MILLION jobs in the last year. IMO it's going to be the lack of jobs, not real estate, that fuels the next crash. I'm with you Dave, I already sold my pre runner and I'm selling a bunch of other toys out of the garage.....looking at paying the house off too.
 

BHC Vic

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Sadly, this is where my head is these days...I hate to be a doom and gloomer but look at the job numbers released yesterday. Almost zero growth, 90% of the jobs added were in the government. We are down about 10 MILLION jobs in the last year. IMO it's going to be the lack of jobs, not real estate, that fuels the next crash. I'm with you Dave, I already sold my pre runner and I'm selling a bunch of other toys out of the garage.....looking at paying the house off too.
As bad as i want that diesel truck I see a Honda Civic in my future. Gas up 50 cents already
 

thetub

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boatnam2

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There has been quite a few refineries shut down that will not be coming back online, when things do open up, look for a good spike in prices.
 

mesquito_creek

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Ive heard house poor a few times. You are not really house poor.
500000 house with a 3000 monthly mortgage. at 20 years you have paid about 700ish after interest. Maybe more but you get the picture.
At 20 years the house is worth 1000000. You made 300000......but not really, you made more
IF you DIDNT have a mortgage and paid 3000 a month in rent you would have paid 700000ish with nothing when your done in 20 years.
SO in reality you not house poor at all. Not owning a home is giving away money
I may agree with your over all point, but your math is way off. You forgot to subtract property taxes, HOA fees, maintenance and vanity remodel and improvements. I own 4 properties over 25 years have and my simple mutual/indexed Stock portfolio has outperformed it... you can rent and invest successfully.
 
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