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2021 Stock Market

DRYHEAT

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Most indices down less than 1% not what I would call panic selling.😊
 

BHC Vic

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I sold a bunch at 50 some more in the 60’s and I’m still holding i think 22 shares. I’m still waiting to see what happens
 

DILLIGAF

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Damn.....going to be very very ruff at the opening. Hang on for the ride today.......

PREMARKET
DOW -508 1.42%
NASD -155 1.07%
 
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DILLIGAF

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Went ahead and moved all my PRTS and VTRS funds into additional shares of LAZR at 20.85.

Lets start rolling LAZR....
Well....what I saved in the PRTS and VTRS sells have been eaten up on the LAZR drop. Dammit.....

LAZR is going to show some life here over the next week or so IMO. Its definitely an up-down stock with a potential big upside
 

bldrinker

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Well that hurt...

Warning don’t go look at your account...

Especially if you own BA.
 

Xring01

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Well, pretty sure I advised yall, to manage your position sizes, to expect apullback, and have cash on the sidelines to buy the dips…

Pretty sure…

I doubt I am buying any dips today, this could trigger a couple day sell off. Which would be great for the bull market.
 

PaPaG

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Love this pullback, ready to pull the trigger on a few choices that I was day trading for months but had gotten to high for comfort...
 

BHC Vic

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I’m still long term trading. This just gives me a chance to dollar cost average but only a couple stocks are at my price range. Still waiting for a little more pullback. I’ll buy more eth at 1700 and more ada at a dollar.
 

gqchris

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I’m still long term trading. This just gives me a chance to dollar cost average but only a couple stocks are at my price range. Still waiting for a little more pullback. I’ll buy more eth at 1700 and more ada at a dollar.
Just got some more BTC and ETH a few minutes ago, Sold AMC, tired of following it. LOL.....

Now if only DOGE would break its slump!
 

BHC Vic

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Just got some more BTC and ETH a few minutes ago, Sold AMC, tired of following it. LOL.....

Now if only DOGE would break its slump!
I still believe amc is going to pop but I’ve already made enough to not care either way. Doge I think will hit a dollar by 2025 so I’m going to keep what I have. Eth im hoping hits 10k by 2025. I would love ada to be double digits by 2025.
 

PaPaG

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Love this pullback, ready to pull the trigger on a few choices that I was day trading for months but had gotten to high for comfort...
Bought on the dip yesterday, sold on the pop today....HUGE smile on my face right now.....If I could get This lucky in timing once a month I would never have to work again...:)
 

Xring01

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Bought on the dip yesterday, sold on the pop today....HUGE smile on my face right now.....If I could get This lucky in timing once a month I would never have to work again...:)
I have posted this once before... but its appropriate again.

BUY BUY BUY THE FUCKING DIP

yes... I bought that DKNG dip...... I want to take profits, but I just can't, think that its going into the $50s soon...
 

Xring01

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I have posted this once before... but its appropriate again.

BUY BUY BUY THE FUCKING DIP

yes... I bought that DKNG dip...... I want to take profits, but I just can't, think that its going into the $50s soon...
Did I call DKNG or what.... what..... nailing this fucker right now..... its going to be difficult not to take some profits today.... I may sell 25% on any pullbacks....

edited:7:43am...
Had 5 minutes to study the DKNG Chart...
Next resistance level is pretty much at $50.00.... However considering that its already up 5.5% today, I doubt it will get to $50 today. Therefore I will be taking profits on 25-50% of this position today, on signs of a pull back. If it pulls back hard enough, I will most likely re invested that 25-50%, for that push to $50 area.

At that point, it will be due for a good pullback, I will most likely hold 25%, just incase I am wrong about the pull back.... if it pulls back hard enough... rinse/repeat, and buy the fucking dips....

Thats pretty much my trading plan for DKNG...
Taking the obvious profits, protecting my $$$, managing my position size thru the key levels, setting my self up for success.


edited again...
fuck volume is coming in.... I may be wrong... bitch may hit $50 today..... NICE...........
 
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BHC Vic

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Made another nice profit on amc. Waiting to see a little gamma squeeze then I’ll take more profits and keep waiting.
 

Xring01

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AMC, Wish I was watching it this am...

I would have shorted the shit out of it at my arrow... That second VWAP Fail.... OMG.... I would have put in a big position right there.... Big Red Arrow.... for a nice scalp...I just dont have the time to day trade anymore.


1626881549512.png
 

BHC Vic

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How is it going to work for me with taxes when I hold a stock long term over a year but also trade some of the shares as it goes up and down
 

LargeOrangeFont

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How is it going to work for me with taxes when I hold a stock long term over a year but also trade some of the shares as it goes up and down

The end of year tax forms will break it all down as to what was sold short term for profits.
 

Xring01

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DKNG Update...
I sold 50% position at $49.03 right before the market closed. Holding 50% now.... Seriously, I had to take profits after that dip buy, I would have felt like an idiot if I didnt and it opens red tomorrow am. No one goes broke taking profits... at least thats what I am telling my self right now. Because I sold that fucker may open green 3%... that would hurt.

Still have the same trading plan...
If it pulls back tomorrow am, and the market is not melting down, then I will reload (buy 50% at that discount,) and ride the 100% position thru the Key Level of $50 and re evaluate at that point.....

This is how I manage my position size, take profits, and prepare for whether is goes up or down, why, because I have a plan in place.

If it drops like a rock tomorrow, I still took profits on 50%, and I will stop out on the remaining 50%, but I will stop out profitable...

Protecting my profits.
 

DoughBallin14

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Having a hard call in my mind when and where the top will be! I randomly bought into ternium back around February around 27 bucks and this last month or two has been a good climb. All time highs lately and today. Ha the mind playing tricks on me, how long to hold 🤦🏽‍♂️

F96FB2D3-8B6F-45E2-B661-9DE49C248FD5.png
 

BHC Vic

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Stem is Transforming the Grid
As the first public pure play smart energy storage company, Stem delivers and operates battery storage solutions that maximize renewable energy generation and help build a cleaner, more resilient grid. Our customers include Fortune 500 companies, project developers, utilities and independent power producers. Stem’s market-leading Athena software helps lower energy costs and solve renewable intermittency across the world’s largest network of distributed energy storage systems.
 

BHC Vic

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Just saved it on my list now. How do you feel its going to perform coming off its highs in February and steady climb in june?
I like stem as a long term play. I didn’t think it would fall below 30 but it took a huge hit like the rest of the spacs. Stem is something I’m holding till 2030 at least.

Stem Inc - Due Diligence

Stem Inc was established in 2009 and is a provider of battery storage and AI optimisation software to Utilities and Large Corporates (including Amazon, Facebook and UPS) in the US, Canada and Japan.

Total Addressable Market and Market Position

Stem is the market leader in the fast-growing energy storage market. Wood Mackenzie forecast a Total Addressable Market for energy storage of $1.2 trillion by 2050, and for the battery storage market to increase by 25x by 2030. The size of Stem’s market is rapidly expanding due to:

  1. The declining cost of batteries, driving increased adoption. This is already happening with Electric Vehicle batteries, and the same economies of scale are benefiting Stem. Batteries are now increasingly being installed with solar and wind to reduce their intermittency
  2. Stem is expecting to see the introduction of a standalone investment tax credit in the US for clean energy storage, allowing storage to be eligible for tax concessions (matching the concessions available to solar & wind). This is expected to open up a variety of new markets in the US.
  3. The Biden administration has proposed a $100 billion investment to transform the energy grid, putting the US on a path to achieving 100% carbon free electricity. Batteries and smart software are required to manage renewable’s intermittency.
  4. Broader Clean Energy / ESG mandate from large corporates and governments worldwide. There will be plenty of macro catalysts for Stem in the coming years
Stem is the market leader with 75% market share in the Californian battery storage market (larger than their next 4 competitors combined), with California being the largest market in the US. Stem has a first mover advantage, as they’re already operating with over 40 utilities, 5 grid operators, for a cumulative total of more than 20 million run-time hours. This is the equivalent to Stem already operating 12 gas peaker plants (1 GWH).

Stem sources batteries from Tier 1 manufacturers, including LG, Tesla and Samsung. They are one of the largest purchasers of utility grade batteries in the US, and are agnostic on who’s batteries they install – their software can attach to nearly any battery. In terms of their supplier’s bargaining power, they see Tesla as operating in a different market to them. Tesla is seen as doing much larger projects, such as the Australian ‘Big Battery’. They also see Tesla as primarily a manufacturer, who’s trying to scale their output (similar to how Foxconn is a manufacturer to Apple). They’re also not dependent upon Tesla batteries, as they can switch to other suppliers. Interestingly, they believe they introduced Tesla to the Japanese market!

Stem’s Competitive Advantage – Athena AI

Essentially Stem’s business model is supplying and installing a Battery and AI Software bundle. Stem’s AI software, called Athena, is their competitive advantage over other battery providers.

Athena is a propriety, patented, AI optimisation software which Stem bundle with battery installation. Athena analyses large data sets (over 700,000 data points per second) in real time to optimise electricity flows. It takes into account energy prices, grid dynamics, weather, and customer usage patterns to lower their electricity costs by up to 30%.

It does this, by example, by taking advantage of electricity price fluctuations. Very simply, Athena will instruct batteries to charge when prices are low (say during the day when solar panels are generating lots of surplus power) and discharge into the grid when prices are high (say during the evening when solar is off). This electricity market participation creates value for their customers and for Stem. There are 13 ways in which Athena creates value for customers, with this just being a simple example of a price arbitrage scenario.

I believe Athena has a strong competitive ‘moat’ due to:

  1. Athena is attached to 100% of Stem’s battery sales, and at no point has a customer ever asked for the software to be removed. Stem has 75% market share of the Californian battery storage market, illustrating the strong demand for Athena
  2. Athena generates 80% Gross Margins, which demonstrates both the lack of substitute software solutions and the value that customers place on Athena
  3. Athena gets better with more use. There are more than 950 systems operating or contracted with Athena, which have collectively generated more than 20 million runtime hours of data, generating a wealth of data to train and improve Athena. This data itself is a source of competitive advantage, with battery suppliers reportedly seeking to purchase this data from Stem. Competitors simply don’t have this data, don’t have a market leading position to generate this data, and don’t have the luxury of time to make up the shortfall.
Strengthened Balance sheet

The main tangible benefit of the merger with Star Peak Energy Transition Corp (ticker STPK) is the cash – Stem has a war chest of $525m to pursue growth. Stem is going to use these funds to grow in 4 tangible ways

  1. Reduction in Working Capital. Prior to its strengthened balance sheet, Stem had to pay 100% for batteries up-front, and wouldn’t get paid by the customer until the project was complete. This meant Stem had to fund the holding cost of the battery purchase for several months, which curtailed their growth. With its stronger balance sheet, Stem expects to negotiate better deals with its supplier’s, driving a $100m improvement in working capital over the next 24 months
  2. Bid on larger projects. Multiple times in the past, large utility owners have curtailed Stem’s level of participation on projects due to a lack of balance sheet strength. This cut Stem’s project participation to just 30%, 40% or 50%. However, going forward with the stronger balance sheet, they expect to land larger opportunities
  3. Further investment in Athena, to extend its market leading position
  4. International expansion
Valuation

Stem has provided guidance to 2026, with a Revenue CAGR of 80% from 2020 to 2026. 2021 revenue is expected to be 4.5x 2020 revenue. 2021’s revenue is already secured by signed customer contracts – Stem is actively is executing on these. Further confidence in revenue forecasts comes from a contracted backlog of $200m (as of 17 January 2021).

Revenue quality is underpinned by Stem’s contracting model - Athena is provided on a 10 to 20 year subscription term in conjunction with the battery sale. This provides significant and predictable long term cash flows beyond just an upfront battery sale.

A Discount Cash Flow analysis of their Free Cash Flow forecast, plus their $525m cash, equates to $47.80/share (8% discount rate, 2.5% perpetual growth rate), representing substantial upside from the current stock price. Upside to this target is possible from market expansion and government policy changes, including:

  1. Movement into residential properties. This is an untapped market, with Stem actively considering how best to enter this market. Entry into the residential market is not included in their FCF
  2. Upside from the proposed energy storage investment tax credit. Stem’s FCF forecast was released in December 2020, before Biden took office
  3. Upside from Biden’s proposed $100 billion investment to transform the energy grid. Similarly, Stem’s FCF forecast was released in December 2020, before Biden took office
Sources

Click on “Register Now”. http://ipo-edge.com/2021/04/08/ipo-edge-to-host-fireside-chat-with-star-peak-chairman-and-stem-ceo-on-april-12-to-discuss-merger/?fbclid=IwAR3S5YGYT0mL_j8lRvv7Ch8zriZezEcVXQwTQhTXTAlfLNzjm1B_4_s4fQ0

https://3zkqyz2t3xwi492ll518psvq-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Stem-Star-Peak-Investor-Presentation_Dec2020.pdf
 

DoughBallin14

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I like stem as a long term play. I didn’t think it would fall below 30 but it took a huge hit like the rest of the spacs. Stem is something I’m holding till 2030 at least.

Stem Inc - Due Diligence

Stem Inc was established in 2009 and is a provider of battery storage and AI optimisation software to Utilities and Large Corporates (including Amazon, Facebook and UPS) in the US, Canada and Japan.

Total Addressable Market and Market Position

Stem is the market leader in the fast-growing energy storage market. Wood Mackenzie forecast a Total Addressable Market for energy storage of $1.2 trillion by 2050, and for the battery storage market to increase by 25x by 2030. The size of Stem’s market is rapidly expanding due to:

  1. The declining cost of batteries, driving increased adoption. This is already happening with Electric Vehicle batteries, and the same economies of scale are benefiting Stem. Batteries are now increasingly being installed with solar and wind to reduce their intermittency
  2. Stem is expecting to see the introduction of a standalone investment tax credit in the US for clean energy storage, allowing storage to be eligible for tax concessions (matching the concessions available to solar & wind). This is expected to open up a variety of new markets in the US.
  3. The Biden administration has proposed a $100 billion investment to transform the energy grid, putting the US on a path to achieving 100% carbon free electricity. Batteries and smart software are required to manage renewable’s intermittency.
  4. Broader Clean Energy / ESG mandate from large corporates and governments worldwide. There will be plenty of macro catalysts for Stem in the coming years
Stem is the market leader with 75% market share in the Californian battery storage market (larger than their next 4 competitors combined), with California being the largest market in the US. Stem has a first mover advantage, as they’re already operating with over 40 utilities, 5 grid operators, for a cumulative total of more than 20 million run-time hours. This is the equivalent to Stem already operating 12 gas peaker plants (1 GWH).

Stem sources batteries from Tier 1 manufacturers, including LG, Tesla and Samsung. They are one of the largest purchasers of utility grade batteries in the US, and are agnostic on who’s batteries they install – their software can attach to nearly any battery. In terms of their supplier’s bargaining power, they see Tesla as operating in a different market to them. Tesla is seen as doing much larger projects, such as the Australian ‘Big Battery’. They also see Tesla as primarily a manufacturer, who’s trying to scale their output (similar to how Foxconn is a manufacturer to Apple). They’re also not dependent upon Tesla batteries, as they can switch to other suppliers. Interestingly, they believe they introduced Tesla to the Japanese market!

Stem’s Competitive Advantage – Athena AI

Essentially Stem’s business model is supplying and installing a Battery and AI Software bundle. Stem’s AI software, called Athena, is their competitive advantage over other battery providers.

Athena is a propriety, patented, AI optimisation software which Stem bundle with battery installation. Athena analyses large data sets (over 700,000 data points per second) in real time to optimise electricity flows. It takes into account energy prices, grid dynamics, weather, and customer usage patterns to lower their electricity costs by up to 30%.

It does this, by example, by taking advantage of electricity price fluctuations. Very simply, Athena will instruct batteries to charge when prices are low (say during the day when solar panels are generating lots of surplus power) and discharge into the grid when prices are high (say during the evening when solar is off). This electricity market participation creates value for their customers and for Stem. There are 13 ways in which Athena creates value for customers, with this just being a simple example of a price arbitrage scenario.

I believe Athena has a strong competitive ‘moat’ due to:

  1. Athena is attached to 100% of Stem’s battery sales, and at no point has a customer ever asked for the software to be removed. Stem has 75% market share of the Californian battery storage market, illustrating the strong demand for Athena
  2. Athena generates 80% Gross Margins, which demonstrates both the lack of substitute software solutions and the value that customers place on Athena
  3. Athena gets better with more use. There are more than 950 systems operating or contracted with Athena, which have collectively generated more than 20 million runtime hours of data, generating a wealth of data to train and improve Athena. This data itself is a source of competitive advantage, with battery suppliers reportedly seeking to purchase this data from Stem. Competitors simply don’t have this data, don’t have a market leading position to generate this data, and don’t have the luxury of time to make up the shortfall.
Strengthened Balance sheet

The main tangible benefit of the merger with Star Peak Energy Transition Corp (ticker STPK) is the cash – Stem has a war chest of $525m to pursue growth. Stem is going to use these funds to grow in 4 tangible ways

  1. Reduction in Working Capital. Prior to its strengthened balance sheet, Stem had to pay 100% for batteries up-front, and wouldn’t get paid by the customer until the project was complete. This meant Stem had to fund the holding cost of the battery purchase for several months, which curtailed their growth. With its stronger balance sheet, Stem expects to negotiate better deals with its supplier’s, driving a $100m improvement in working capital over the next 24 months
  2. Bid on larger projects. Multiple times in the past, large utility owners have curtailed Stem’s level of participation on projects due to a lack of balance sheet strength. This cut Stem’s project participation to just 30%, 40% or 50%. However, going forward with the stronger balance sheet, they expect to land larger opportunities
  3. Further investment in Athena, to extend its market leading position
  4. International expansion
Valuation

Stem has provided guidance to 2026, with a Revenue CAGR of 80% from 2020 to 2026. 2021 revenue is expected to be 4.5x 2020 revenue. 2021’s revenue is already secured by signed customer contracts – Stem is actively is executing on these. Further confidence in revenue forecasts comes from a contracted backlog of $200m (as of 17 January 2021).

Revenue quality is underpinned by Stem’s contracting model - Athena is provided on a 10 to 20 year subscription term in conjunction with the battery sale. This provides significant and predictable long term cash flows beyond just an upfront battery sale.

A Discount Cash Flow analysis of their Free Cash Flow forecast, plus their $525m cash, equates to $47.80/share (8% discount rate, 2.5% perpetual growth rate), representing substantial upside from the current stock price. Upside to this target is possible from market expansion and government policy changes, including:

  1. Movement into residential properties. This is an untapped market, with Stem actively considering how best to enter this market. Entry into the residential market is not included in their FCF
  2. Upside from the proposed energy storage investment tax credit. Stem’s FCF forecast was released in December 2020, before Biden took office
  3. Upside from Biden’s proposed $100 billion investment to transform the energy grid. Similarly, Stem’s FCF forecast was released in December 2020, before Biden took office
Sources

Click on “Register Now”. http://ipo-edge.com/2021/04/08/ipo-edge-to-host-fireside-chat-with-star-peak-chairman-and-stem-ceo-on-april-12-to-discuss-merger/?fbclid=IwAR3S5YGYT0mL_j8lRvv7Ch8zriZezEcVXQwTQhTXTAlfLNzjm1B_4_s4fQ0

https://3zkqyz2t3xwi492ll518psvq-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Stem-Star-Peak-Investor-Presentation_Dec2020.pdf
Thank you for the Sources Vic!
 

DoughBallin14

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Crazy Robinhood went public today and seen a few younger people on my instagram explore page dropping thousands into it right now hoping to make it pay off! Not even waiting for it to play out.
I see a short sale probably happening on it.
We will see! 🍻
 

BHC Vic

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etherium is doing ok. I don’t check my BlockFi often but it was a pleasant surprise to look at this morning.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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Just bought CLNE at $7.40. Not too sure where this will be going, but it was my best bet this morning.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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Just bought a little SINO too. Complete gambling, but Chinese stocks were down across the board due to regulation. They usually pop back shortly after.

Please do not follow this trade. I could easily lose my ass.
 
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CobraDave

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I am surprised Charge Point has been so slow to take off. I thought it would have by now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

DoughBallin14

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Stems been doing me good since vic recommended some source research. 👍🏽
Top performers for me within the last month
Tx
Agen
Sunoco
O realty
Bitfarm
Techtronic(Milwaukee, black decker etc.)

Crypto ha lets not go there 🤦🏽‍♂️
 

Xring01

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Got a quick dip buy scalp on DKNG this am...
Saw that had retreated and thought it would hold green, and not go red. Bought a taster of 25%, 5 minutes later, confirmed its wants green, bought 75%.....

Sold 25% on first red triangle, sold 50% on second triangle... holding 25% for a bit... longer will sell at $49.50 if it gets there or it will stop out to protect my profits. I like these types of trades. When I see this set up, I take it, just about every time...

Owe... the ----------- on the middle of my chart is where it opened, meaning thats the difference between red/green....

1628174371822.png
 
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