HCP3
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Doesn't that happen often? A sell off after earnings?
2021 Stock Market
- Thread starter Xring01
- Start date
Doesn't that happen often? A sell off after earnings?
hallett21
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Lately that’s the trend. Beating earnings used to be a good thing and would make something more valuable lol.
On the flip side I’ve seen companies miss earnings by a mile and skyrocket over night.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Not when you blow it out like they did. I don't think it could have been much better.
Confusing as shit.....lol
Earnings happened as I was counting on......now I am just head scratching
Instead of a trade stock this is now looking like a hold.....dammit
Last edited:
Waffles
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I wonder if I’m the only idiot on here still holding gme 
Last edited:
attitude
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Back up today it looks like, I’ll take my couple bucks in profit and watch from the sidelines lol.I wonder if I’m the only idiot on here still holding gme
I wonder if I’m the only idiot on here still holding gme
Diamond hands.....diamond hands you retard
Giving back about 6% on my VIAC but don't have quite the position I did have so it isn't hurting me as bad.
Winners:
Tech stocks: INTC, AAPL, MSFT, TXN
Losers:
VIAC
RIO
SYY
TSN
Trade account:
PRTS....Considering it a loser even though its up
FWDG....Trying to push up
VRTS....A little up...
All in all a green day. I think I may be getting greedy now. Thats dangerous
Winners:
Tech stocks: INTC, AAPL, MSFT, TXN
Losers:
VIAC
RIO
SYY
TSN
Trade account:
PRTS....Considering it a loser even though its up
FWDG....Trying to push up
VRTS....A little up...
All in all a green day. I think I may be getting greedy now. Thats dangerous
CLdrinker
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Remember you don’t always have to hit home runs.
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.
hallett21
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CLdrinker
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With the price of ammo today? LolWhat about 10 and I’m holding a 12 gauge
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
CLdrinker
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BA to the moon let’s go!!!!!
Yarder
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I wonder if I’m the only idiot on here still holding gme
Nope... Glad I had
... Still hodl-ing!
Tooms22
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I was looking to start playing in some short term stocks. I don't know why I came here to look for ideas
I was looking at @BHC Vic's AYRO, TSLA, and then PRTS.
Bought PRTS at 1259pm. With one minute left... it went up 4.5%. What a great buy
Choosing PRTS over TSLA is coming back to haunt me.
Could've had a badass one day flip.
IPO Research, Analysis & DD [Roblox's Public Listing is on Wednesday $RBLX]
In light of the Roblox public listing, I decided to do some DD and compile some information on IPO’s from various sources across the web. Due to Roblox's upcoming listing on Wednesday $RBLX, many members of [r/FluentInFinance](https://www.reddit.com/r/FluentInFinance/), the [facebook group](https://www.facebook.com/groups/financetalk), and [discord](https://discord.gg/BEapnwWHGy), asked me to research/ look into IPO's and $RBLX. Below is some DD, Research and DD on IPO's in general, and the historical performance of IPOs in general. The DD on $RBLX will be completed later today.
​
**IPO Introduction:**
While Beyond Meat, PagerDuty (PD), and Zoom Video Communications (ZM) have debuted with well-deserved hype, other big names like Lyft (LYFT) and Uber (UBER) have failed to live up to expectations. Several other “unicorns” (startups with a valuation over $1 billion) have also listed on public markets in the first half of 2019 But, it’s not uncommon for a stock to double just months after going public.
However, IPOs that explode out of the gate are far more likely to continue marching higher for months, and sometimes years. Since 2000, the average opening day return for an IPO is 14% (that’s more than the S&P 500 returns in a typical year.). A Big gain on IPO day is normal. The recent class of 2020 IPOs has seen its stock price go up, sometimes by multiples, in the first few days of trading. Of the 61 IPOs to debut in the U.S. stock exchange in 2020, the median company that went public saw a pop of 20% on the first day. Only 25% of companies ended the day trading lower than their IPO price. Meanwhile, 28% of companies ended the day trading more than 50% higher than their IPO price. Put another way, if you had bought $1,000 worth of each of the 61 companies at their IPO price, your $61,000 investment would be up 29% after just one day of trading in each of the IPOs. (NOTE: The average first year return (excluding the day 1 pop) for a tech IPO is negative with a median -19% underperformance relative to the broader tech sector. Overall, the average US tech IPO has risen on its first trading day, but its relative return though the rest of its first year has been negative, with the bulk of the underperformance coming 4-7 months after the firm goes public.). Only Healthcare and Technology IPOs have outperformed, and by a relatively small margin
* HubSpot (HUBS)—a software company that went public in October 2014. It spiked 32% on its first day of trading. From there, it took on a life of its own. It nearly doubled in value over the next 14 months. Five years later, it traded 731% above its IPO price.
* Shake Shack went public back in January 2015. Its shares exploded 135% on the first day of trading.
* Beyond Meat spiked 170% on its first day of trading. And that was only the beginning. Beyond Meat went on to gain 859% in under three months, ranking it among the greatest IPOs of all time.
* Vroom, the used car marketplace, priced its IPO at $22 a share offering a block of 21.3 million shares. It closed at $47.90 a share on the first day of trading, a one-day return of 118%
* Agora, an API-powered company for voice and real-time video communication, priced its IPO at $20 a share offering a block of 17.5 million shares. It closed on its first day at $50.50, seeing a pop of 153%.
* Lemonade, a full-stack digital insurance startup, priced its IPO at $29 per share offering a block of 11 million shares. It closed at the end of day one at $69.41, a pop of 139%.
* Roku Inc has risen more than 440% year-to-date
* Tech IPO’s have risen on day 1 about 80% of the time, with a median pop of +21%:
​
[Source: Bloomberg, Janus Henderson, data from January 2010 to March 2018](https://preview.redd.it/dx4h2c3h5yl61.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=2beab86b2764b15b23dc75d97a63a33a6522f080)
​
**2020 IPOs: Price Change from IPO Price (5) at Close of first day trading:**
**The last 100 IPOs:**
* The below link lists the last 100 IPOs. The second to last column can be used to sort the list by return %
* [https://www.iposcoop.com/last-100-ipos/](https://www.iposcoop.com/last-100-ipos/)
​
**Catalysts:**
* Free Advertising: Successful IPOs often get millions of dollars’ worth of free advertising. The media plays a role in perpetuating the hype. An IPO with a big pop is portrayed as a marker of success, whereas one without a pronounced pop is seen as an anticlimactic public entry
* After ShakeShak’s IPO, Shake Shack became the talk of the town. For weeks, it was one of the biggest stories on CNBC. It got a ton of airtime.
* Beyond Meat became the talk of the investing world. For months, CNBC talked about it every day.
* Momentum Traders
* Momentum traders love to buy stocks that are zooming higher
* Resistance Levels
* IPOs are new stocks. They have no price history. Which means they have no stock chart. For you chartists reading this, an IPO has no “resistance levels” to hold it back.
* Profitability during the first year of public trade appears to have no impact on whether a stock outperforms the markets. Profitability in the second year and third years, however, has been a reliable indicator of IPO outperformance over a three-year period since 2000, though only 47% of the IPOs studied achieved profitability by their third year.
​
**Negatives:**
* Only 38% of major IPOs have shown better returns than the broader market
* Around month 6, there is an anticipated and actual increase in share supply and selling pressure around the lock-up expiration date (180 days post-IPO). Generally employees and VC backers must wait for the IPO lock-up period to end before they can sell their shares in the market and convert paper wealth into liquidity.
* The average first year return (excluding the day 1 pop) for a tech IPO is negative with a median -19% underperformance relative to the broader tech sector. Overall, the average US tech IPO has risen on its first trading day, but its relative return though the rest of its first year has been negative, with the bulk of the underperformance coming 4-7 months after the firm goes public. Additionally, IPOs historically have underperformed for up to two and a half years after going public.
* The median IPO stock has lagged the Russell 3000 by 28 percentage points over three years
​
**Why do companies even go public to begin with?**
* Raising capital for growth
* Offering liquidity for earlier-stage investors and early employees and/or founders
​
**Why do Banks Underprice IPO’s?**
* The institutional investors want to make a return on their investment, so their goal is to get the stock as cheaply as possible.
​
**Conclusion**
* While first day returns for IPOs can be high, they are unlikely to be achievable for retail investors because they are unable to get the shares at the same price as institutional investors
* Investors should not overpay for a stock, no matter how great its prospects look.
​
**Strategy:**
* I like to swing trade this opening day. I wing it. Perhaps sell all, maybe sell half and let half ride. Maybe sell covered calls on my shares.
* Because IPOs move fast, don’t hesitate to take profits on ones that go parabolic. If you achieve a quick double or triple, it’s usually smart to sell some shares and lock in the profits.
* I’ll come back in 4-7 months to form a long term position. Perhaps buy both shares and LEAPS.
​
​
For updates check out twitter, discord or the facebook group: [https://www.flowcode.com/page/fluentinfinance](https://www.flowcode.com/page/fluentinfinance)
​
For my prior DD's check out [r/FluentInFinance](https://www.reddit.com/r/FluentInFinance/)
​
**Sources:**
· [https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB.../SB52133021052493823286804580163941038934092)
· [https://www.janushenderson.com/en-u...ow-do-tech-ipos-perform-in-their-first-year/)
· [https://www.forbes.com/sites/olivie...ve-this-one-thing-in-common/?sh=5743bb2a2b21)
· [https://marker.medium.com/why-the-d...he-day-one-ipo-pop-is-overhyped-85fbab29103b)
· [https://get.ycharts.com/5-things-to...s.com/5-things-to-know-before-buying-an-ipo/)
In light of the Roblox public listing, I decided to do some DD and compile some information on IPO’s from various sources across the web. Due to Roblox's upcoming listing on Wednesday $RBLX, many members of [r/FluentInFinance](https://www.reddit.com/r/FluentInFinance/), the [facebook group](https://www.facebook.com/groups/financetalk), and [discord](https://discord.gg/BEapnwWHGy), asked me to research/ look into IPO's and $RBLX. Below is some DD, Research and DD on IPO's in general, and the historical performance of IPOs in general. The DD on $RBLX will be completed later today.
​
**IPO Introduction:**
While Beyond Meat, PagerDuty (PD), and Zoom Video Communications (ZM) have debuted with well-deserved hype, other big names like Lyft (LYFT) and Uber (UBER) have failed to live up to expectations. Several other “unicorns” (startups with a valuation over $1 billion) have also listed on public markets in the first half of 2019 But, it’s not uncommon for a stock to double just months after going public.
However, IPOs that explode out of the gate are far more likely to continue marching higher for months, and sometimes years. Since 2000, the average opening day return for an IPO is 14% (that’s more than the S&P 500 returns in a typical year.). A Big gain on IPO day is normal. The recent class of 2020 IPOs has seen its stock price go up, sometimes by multiples, in the first few days of trading. Of the 61 IPOs to debut in the U.S. stock exchange in 2020, the median company that went public saw a pop of 20% on the first day. Only 25% of companies ended the day trading lower than their IPO price. Meanwhile, 28% of companies ended the day trading more than 50% higher than their IPO price. Put another way, if you had bought $1,000 worth of each of the 61 companies at their IPO price, your $61,000 investment would be up 29% after just one day of trading in each of the IPOs. (NOTE: The average first year return (excluding the day 1 pop) for a tech IPO is negative with a median -19% underperformance relative to the broader tech sector. Overall, the average US tech IPO has risen on its first trading day, but its relative return though the rest of its first year has been negative, with the bulk of the underperformance coming 4-7 months after the firm goes public.). Only Healthcare and Technology IPOs have outperformed, and by a relatively small margin
* HubSpot (HUBS)—a software company that went public in October 2014. It spiked 32% on its first day of trading. From there, it took on a life of its own. It nearly doubled in value over the next 14 months. Five years later, it traded 731% above its IPO price.
* Shake Shack went public back in January 2015. Its shares exploded 135% on the first day of trading.
* Beyond Meat spiked 170% on its first day of trading. And that was only the beginning. Beyond Meat went on to gain 859% in under three months, ranking it among the greatest IPOs of all time.
* Vroom, the used car marketplace, priced its IPO at $22 a share offering a block of 21.3 million shares. It closed at $47.90 a share on the first day of trading, a one-day return of 118%
* Agora, an API-powered company for voice and real-time video communication, priced its IPO at $20 a share offering a block of 17.5 million shares. It closed on its first day at $50.50, seeing a pop of 153%.
* Lemonade, a full-stack digital insurance startup, priced its IPO at $29 per share offering a block of 11 million shares. It closed at the end of day one at $69.41, a pop of 139%.
* Roku Inc has risen more than 440% year-to-date
* Tech IPO’s have risen on day 1 about 80% of the time, with a median pop of +21%:
​
[Source: Bloomberg, Janus Henderson, data from January 2010 to March 2018](https://preview.redd.it/dx4h2c3h5yl61.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=2beab86b2764b15b23dc75d97a63a33a6522f080)
​
**2020 IPOs: Price Change from IPO Price (5) at Close of first day trading:**
**The last 100 IPOs:**
* The below link lists the last 100 IPOs. The second to last column can be used to sort the list by return %
* [https://www.iposcoop.com/last-100-ipos/](https://www.iposcoop.com/last-100-ipos/)
​
**Catalysts:**
* Free Advertising: Successful IPOs often get millions of dollars’ worth of free advertising. The media plays a role in perpetuating the hype. An IPO with a big pop is portrayed as a marker of success, whereas one without a pronounced pop is seen as an anticlimactic public entry
* After ShakeShak’s IPO, Shake Shack became the talk of the town. For weeks, it was one of the biggest stories on CNBC. It got a ton of airtime.
* Beyond Meat became the talk of the investing world. For months, CNBC talked about it every day.
* Momentum Traders
* Momentum traders love to buy stocks that are zooming higher
* Resistance Levels
* IPOs are new stocks. They have no price history. Which means they have no stock chart. For you chartists reading this, an IPO has no “resistance levels” to hold it back.
* Profitability during the first year of public trade appears to have no impact on whether a stock outperforms the markets. Profitability in the second year and third years, however, has been a reliable indicator of IPO outperformance over a three-year period since 2000, though only 47% of the IPOs studied achieved profitability by their third year.
​
**Negatives:**
* Only 38% of major IPOs have shown better returns than the broader market
* Around month 6, there is an anticipated and actual increase in share supply and selling pressure around the lock-up expiration date (180 days post-IPO). Generally employees and VC backers must wait for the IPO lock-up period to end before they can sell their shares in the market and convert paper wealth into liquidity.
* The average first year return (excluding the day 1 pop) for a tech IPO is negative with a median -19% underperformance relative to the broader tech sector. Overall, the average US tech IPO has risen on its first trading day, but its relative return though the rest of its first year has been negative, with the bulk of the underperformance coming 4-7 months after the firm goes public. Additionally, IPOs historically have underperformed for up to two and a half years after going public.
* The median IPO stock has lagged the Russell 3000 by 28 percentage points over three years
​
**Why do companies even go public to begin with?**
* Raising capital for growth
* Offering liquidity for earlier-stage investors and early employees and/or founders
​
**Why do Banks Underprice IPO’s?**
* The institutional investors want to make a return on their investment, so their goal is to get the stock as cheaply as possible.
​
**Conclusion**
* While first day returns for IPOs can be high, they are unlikely to be achievable for retail investors because they are unable to get the shares at the same price as institutional investors
* Investors should not overpay for a stock, no matter how great its prospects look.
​
**Strategy:**
* I like to swing trade this opening day. I wing it. Perhaps sell all, maybe sell half and let half ride. Maybe sell covered calls on my shares.
* Because IPOs move fast, don’t hesitate to take profits on ones that go parabolic. If you achieve a quick double or triple, it’s usually smart to sell some shares and lock in the profits.
* I’ll come back in 4-7 months to form a long term position. Perhaps buy both shares and LEAPS.
​
​
For updates check out twitter, discord or the facebook group: [https://www.flowcode.com/page/fluentinfinance](https://www.flowcode.com/page/fluentinfinance)
​
For my prior DD's check out [r/FluentInFinance](https://www.reddit.com/r/FluentInFinance/)
​
**Sources:**
· [https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB.../SB52133021052493823286804580163941038934092)
· [https://www.janushenderson.com/en-u...ow-do-tech-ipos-perform-in-their-first-year/)
· [https://www.forbes.com/sites/olivie...ve-this-one-thing-in-common/?sh=5743bb2a2b21)
· [https://marker.medium.com/why-the-d...he-day-one-ipo-pop-is-overhyped-85fbab29103b)
· [https://get.ycharts.com/5-things-to...s.com/5-things-to-know-before-buying-an-ipo/)
Hypnautic
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- 3,830
Jumped on TSLA
3/5 @ $573
3/8 @ $565
Only bought 10 shares each buy so little over $11k investment. Up about 17%.
i hear ya.PRTS didnt do what I expected. It will in time but I was looking to “flip” it as well
Xring01
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- Feb 25, 2017
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- 7,949
Yes, it was great day...
BLNK... wow... I killed it on that stock... thats pretty much the majority of my trades....
AMC, NIO, SNDL, PLTR and INVO where all green.....
One red trade was ANPC... tried it a couple of times, and finally gave up, because tthere was no bounce, pretty much down down down... Should have shorted it, but the cost to borrow it was quite high.
Strange day for sure...
Dow barely moved, and the NQ went off, then treated, then chopped aournd....
I am still really not holding anything over night.... ( I have a small position in PLTR right now, hoping it gaps up tomorrow)... But thats it.
Once I think we are some what back to normal routine, then I might start swing trading again. Until then, just day trading...
BLNK... wow... I killed it on that stock... thats pretty much the majority of my trades....
AMC, NIO, SNDL, PLTR and INVO where all green.....
One red trade was ANPC... tried it a couple of times, and finally gave up, because tthere was no bounce, pretty much down down down... Should have shorted it, but the cost to borrow it was quite high.
Strange day for sure...
Dow barely moved, and the NQ went off, then treated, then chopped aournd....
I am still really not holding anything over night.... ( I have a small position in PLTR right now, hoping it gaps up tomorrow)... But thats it.
Once I think we are some what back to normal routine, then I might start swing trading again. Until then, just day trading...
What are your thoughts on rblx tomorrow? I’m seeing estimates from 30-120 a share
Xring01
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- 7,949
IPOs...
On average... you will lose money on opening day....
So if you want to play it, then treat it as highly speculative, with small positions...
IMHO... The vast majority of IPOs are day trades only.... get in/get out, preferably within 15-20 minutes...
I remember the FB IPO... after day 5 of opening... vast majority of holders where down 50% or more...
I cant remember the last IPO that I traded... but thats me..
If you an experienced day trader, then jump in... If not, then stay far far away..
But thats my opinion.
On average... you will lose money on opening day....
So if you want to play it, then treat it as highly speculative, with small positions...
IMHO... The vast majority of IPOs are day trades only.... get in/get out, preferably within 15-20 minutes...
I remember the FB IPO... after day 5 of opening... vast majority of holders where down 50% or more...
I cant remember the last IPO that I traded... but thats me..
If you an experienced day trader, then jump in... If not, then stay far far away..
But thats my opinion.
Thank you. I’m too stubborn to stay away but I won’t cry if I get burned.
bowtiejunkie
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Another company going IPO with decreasing net income. The game seems popular amongst the younger crowd. How long will it stay popular? Kids will bounce at the sign of another popular game. This is probably a move so early investors and employees can realize a return on their investments.
You could research Zynga IPO. Big pop and 10 years later it’s barely above its IPO opening price. Nothing really makes sense with this current market, so who knows if Roblox will be a winner or not. Just pay attention when it hits the open market. You’ll likely see a big gain, which represents the gain over the Offering Price (price investment firms underwriting the deal pay) and not the gain over the Opening Price (stock price when it hits the open market).
Everything I’m reading says they aren’t doing ipo, instead listing shares directly?
I don’t really know the difference
bowtiejunkie
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Oops, sorry, wasn’t following it close enough. Looks like they set a reference price of $45. Should be volatile. Might have to throw a few bucks at it.
hallett21
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In an IPO the big boys get to purchase shares at a locked in price, typically the fund that’s bringing them public and I believe select others as well.
Then it hits retail (you and me).
The kicker being the first price could be $10 (what the fund and other early buyers pay) then they say the price will start at $40 on IPO day.
So either retail buys it up and drives the price up. Or the people who just 4x their money sell half off. And why would they care even if the stock went from $40 to $15 they are still up.
The second part usually always happens. Just a matter of days, weeks or months.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Havasu Rehab
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I just noticed this exact thing happen with XM ipo. It was good for a few weeks. Then the sell off began.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Xring01
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Dejavu.
But it’s not an ipo
bowtiejunkie
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Whether it’s an IPO or Direct, once it starts trading on the open market, the buyers will determine what the stock is worth. What happens before open market for an IPO benefits the company. With a Direct, the employees and company investors can dump their shares immediately, whereas, they cannot during an IPO due to lockup’s.
Still will be volatile.
Still will be volatile.
Havasu Rehab
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Atari Setting Up Crypto Casino to Tap Into Nostalgia and NFTs
(Bloomberg) -- Entertainment software company Atari SA plans to start an online casino next month, the latest step in Chief Executive Officer Frederic Chesnais’s effort to revitalize the firm.The casino, developed in partnership with Decentral Games on the Ethereum blockchain, will include...
Here’s an interesting article. The brand Atari is making a return. This time it will allow betting on games using crypto.
I’m not at all versed on the company. I just found it very interesting that they’re allowing gambling on the platform.
Based on how big gaming is, coupled with the rise of crypto and the relaxed attitude towards gambling, I can totally see this concept being huge in the future.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
attitude
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I have a buddy or two that will need to stay far away from that game lol
Atari Setting Up Crypto Casino to Tap Into Nostalgia and NFTs
(Bloomberg) -- Entertainment software company Atari SA plans to start an online casino next month, the latest step in Chief Executive Officer Frederic Chesnais’s effort to revitalize the firm.The casino, developed in partnership with Decentral Games on the Ethereum blockchain, will include...finance.yahoo.com
Here’s an interesting article. The brand Atari is making a return. This time it will allow betting on games using crypto.
I’m not at all versed on the company. I just found it very interesting that they’re allowing gambling on the platform.
Based on how big gaming is, coupled with the rise of crypto and the relaxed attitude towards gambling, I can totally see this concept being huge in the future.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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CLdrinker
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Wow everything shot up and then right back down.
I really like what LOF said a couple pages back. Easy come easy go
Christopher Lucero
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Can I get a poll here?
How many participants in this moment are in for ST gains, and how many for LT? The conversations seem to be all ST.
Also, are ST pursuits in after tax accounts or IRA/Keogh/401k?
How many participants in this moment are in for ST gains, and how many for LT? The conversations seem to be all ST.
Also, are ST pursuits in after tax accounts or IRA/Keogh/401k?
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I’m looking for both. Long term to me is 5 years though. Short term I consider a couple months. I don’t really scalp or day trade. I do like the excitement of short term trades.
i
It was kind of a mixed thread thread for awhile, then it was about 2-5 guys talking swing trading for a few months, then GME happened and it turned into a day trading thread. I'm sure plenty of long range guys in here but most chatter is about ST gains.
LargeOrangeFont
We aren't happy until you aren't happy
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Stretch your timeline out. Short term is days to weeks, Medium term is months to a couple years, long term several years to decades.
BajaT
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Only gains....May take long term to get them!!! (APPL)
99% of mine is LT.....
I have a small ST account I am giving a shot at trading. Problem is I seem to be screwing up.....lol Then I hold the damn things trying to recoup.
