Covid Crunch

[SummitKarl]

At Least that is what I am calling it.
In my 20ish years of designing homes in Havasu I have never seen anything like this boom that is going on now, it's beyond crazy. The boom of the early 2000's has nothing on what is going on now in Havasu, I literally have seen lines to get into the Model Homes, My Phone rings off the hook well into the night and 16hr days are the "New Normal" (LOL) around here. All This seems to conflict with the supposed experts saying the Covid lockdown is going to kill the economy, it's doing anything but that for Havasu. It sure hasn't hurt the vacation home market any, but as I meet and talk with clients there is just a mass exit of California's population right now, many have just had the last straw with California's politics and are done with it, The entire Arizona coast line (lol) is just a buzz of building from Bullhead to Parker and unless something awful happens in November, interest rates go way up or some sort of attack on the U.S. happens I see no end in sight to what is going on. The Resume building switch in Havasu turned on January 1st of 2014 and it's done nothing but accelerate since then. The Baby boomer generation is retiring these are the people that worked that 40r a week job , saved their money, contributed to their 401k and so on and it's a big part of what is going on. I am just trying to wrap my head around all of this and figure out what is going on and why, because in the end a big part of my job is helping people make decisions that are best for them in building a new home, so the more I know the better for my clients.

What does the brain trust have to say, Am I reading this right?, are there other factors you can think of?
looking forward to all your guys input
Thanks
Karl

 

[NorCalRiverRat]

Californian's with Money...


3...2...1...


you might have well said beetlejuice three times...


..

 

[cofooter]

Californian's with Money...


3...2...1...


you might have well said beetlejuice three times...


..

Much to the disdain of the locals, they want to all be able to go to their vacation house when Covid 2.0 hits this fall...........

 

[SummitKarl]

Much to the disdain of the locals, they want to all be able to go to their vacation house when Covid 2.0 hits this fall...........

valid point, that might very well be true

 

[cofooter]

valid point, that might very well be true

People that were on the fence are now done with Kommiefornia

 

[shintoooo]

Both my sisters are going to Henderson NV in a couple weeks to look at houses. The cost of living along with the political BS has put them both over the edge. They will sell their homes here and buy something cash over there.

My mom will likely follow suit as well and that will leave my me and my brother. What’s funny is we wanted to make a move to Arizona about 8 years ago but we didn’t because of my family being here and now they’re leaving.

My wife and I are just waiting for our two high schoolers to finish in three years and then we will decide what to do. Our oldest just graduated from Cal state Northridge and is going to Texas with his girlfriend to look around and see if he likes it over there. A lot of opportunities over there for both of them.

 

[jones performance]

the covid scare tactics pushed alot people over the edge and they are pulling the trigger on getting out of calif.

 

[pronstar]

Real estate market in DFW is still strong, with lack of inventory and lots of buyers.

I’m glad I bought a flip three weeks ago, because things should tick upwards once the economy gets going.


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[adam909]

I think its people just feeding in to the hype of missing out? Look how crazy the stock market has been.. It dosnt equal to whats going on with the economy. With housing i think its the old supply and and demand.. Alot of people pulled there homes off the market creating a supply issue which is creating the houses that are for sale people are overpaying just to get into a home.. I live in a housing development and it looks like they have double down on the new homes getting built to finish them faster. Developer also just started framing a dozen or so new homes which are mostlikely already been sold.. I dont get it..

 

[Bobby V]

My neighbor is a real estate agent in the OC / So Cal area. Houses are only on the market for a short time lately. And selling over asking price.

 

[gqchris]

On Tuesday getting back from the Marina, I pulled into driveway and smelled that all to familiar smell of a cooked trailer bearing. Looked down and it was smoking and at 280 degrees!

I said, no biggie Ill mess with it morning. Woke up, was already 100 degrees out, and I said the hell with this, Ill call around and get it fixed and done.

First call was Adrenaline Trailers, I am a long time customer. Guy laughed at me and said its all the "Stupid California Covids" making this town packed and no way in hell would he even squeeze me in. I hung up, he just lost a customer forever. WTF. I shit you not, he pretty much laughed at me.

Next call I dont remember who it was , I started googling. Told me hell no, too busy. Next.

Last call was Franks Trailer Repair on Lake Havasu Drive. He said bring it by ASAP. This was 7:30 am. I unhooked, he racked it up in bay immediately. Says he will call me ASAP. I went home and by 10:30 am he said come by and pick up trailer! Price was great and he just gained a customer. By the way, I needed Brakes, Backing Plates, all new bearings, brake lines, and an Actuator. That stung! New to me boat, so at least its sorted now.

I guess that PPP Loan money is flowing. But these places better remember who keeps them busy once this shit blows over.

 

[GRADS]

In my opinion, we are coming out the other end of this Coronavirus pandemic and a lot of people are relatively unscathed by it. Combine that with people being cooped up for 2 months and they are ready to spend money and buy some big ticket items.

 

[traquer]

Real estate doesn't really reflect the economy or stock market real time, it lags quite a bit. Will be interesting to see where it is in 12 months, but I highly doubt it will be going anywhere but down.

 

[ONE-A-DAY]

On Tuesday getting back from the Marina, I pulled into driveway and smelled that all to familiar smell of a cooked trailer bearing. Looked down and it was smoking and at 280 degrees!

I said, no biggie Ill mess with it morning. Woke up, was already 100 degrees out, and I said the hell with this, Ill call around and get it fixed and done.

First call was Adrenaline Trailers, I am a long time customer. Guy laughed at me and said its all the "Stupid California Covids" making this town packed and no way in hell would he even squeeze me in. I hung up, he just lost a customer forever. WTF. I shit you not, he pretty much laughed at me.

Next call I dont remember who it was , I started googling. Told me hell no, too busy. Next.

Last call was Franks Trailer Repair on Lake Havasu Drive. He said bring it by ASAP. This was 7:30 am. I unhooked, he racked it up in bay immediately. Says he will call me ASAP. I went home and by 10:30 am he said come by and pick up trailer! Price was great and he just gained a customer. By the way, I needed Brakes, Backing Plates, all new bearings, brake lines, and an Actuator. That stung! New to me boat, so at least its sorted now.

I guess that PPP Loan money is flowing. But these places better remember who keeps them busy once this shit blows over.

Frank is a good guy for the trailer "ugly stuff", Adrenaline will build you a baller pimped out trailer but if you need something done to keep your trailer rolling down the road Frank is the man.

 

[ONE-A-DAY]

Our home is for sale currently in Havasu, we are getting two to three showings a day. The common theme among those looking is, Covid forced us to stay in our Havasu vacation home for a very long time and convinced us its time to upgrade the Havasu house and get out of California completely.

 

[Bobby V]

Our home is for sale currently in Havasu, we are getting two to three showings a day. The common theme among those looking is, Covid forced us to stay in our Havasu vacation home for a very long time and convinced us its time to upgrade the Havasu house and get out of California completely.

How do you upgrade the Havasu house in the Foothills.

 

[LuauLounge]

In my opinion, we are coming out the other end of this Coronavirus pandemic and a lot of people are relatively unscathed by it. Combine that with people being cooped up for 2 months and they are ready to spend money and buy some big ticket items.

AND millions more are trying to figure out what they are going to do tomorrow.
Business owners are devastated, this shutdown has affected everyone. If you worked for the government or large corps, they are slow to react. The layoffs and paycuts haven’t even started....Now combine that with huge tax increases and see where we are.
Get that new boat order in while you can.

 

[RodnJen]

The benefits Of a strong stock market are definitely contributing to the exit. When you combine that with a strong California economy, including real estate prices, in recent years the exit is in full swing.

 

[just_floatin]

Booming here in Phoenix Metro as well. My wife and I purchased a week ago Friday in Maricopa. 35 minutes from my home in Mesa to my dirt. Home should be done by December 2020. Already made 3k in one week. Some California money is buying up the lots. Only 12 left as of yesterday.

 

[Dana757]

My business is really busy too! yay

 

[NorCalRiverRat]

Booming here in Phoenix Metro as well. My wife and I purchased a week ago Friday in Maricopa.

what does something like that cost ? ballpark is fine.

 

[just_floatin]

what does something like that cost ? ballpark is fine.

Well under 350K with ac in the garage, fully landscaped as you see the front including pavers and a 10’ RV gate. I have an RV dump inside and 50amp service. Full block wall in back as well. Homes are not on top of each other and the location is ideal.

 

[ONE-A-DAY]

Booming here in Phoenix Metro as well. My wife and I purchased a week ago Friday in Maricopa. 35 minutes from my home in Mesa to my dirt. Home should be done by December 2020. Already made 3k in one week. Some California money is buying up the lots. Only 12 left as of yesterday. View attachment 882117 View attachment 882118

Love the garage wall, your handiwork or the builder?

 

[just_floatin]

Love the garage wall, your handiwork or the builder?

Builders idea. Basically a track home with options. I could not touch this price point in Havasu.

 

[Cdog]

Phoenix real estate is crazy right now. The out flow from California and the boomers that are sick of the BS. This is not a 2007 event. The boomers are retired now and are restructuring their lives away from high tax and high regulated areas. The next shoe to drop with be the overturn of prop 13. We could be busy for quite a few years......

Just look at the inventory. In February 2019 we were over 20k homes active. In March 2020 we reached 16k homes. Back down to 12k +.

 

[boatpi]

As many nowhere in the patio cover manufacturing and distribution business in Las Vegas. We are so busy we can’t hardly keep up with the orders and I’ve hired an independent trucking company to take material back to California.

I just had a discussion with an executive of a large lumber distributor and they also distribute aluminum shade structures in Southern California they are in the same position record sales.

Another friend owns a number of patio furniture stores really nice stuff, they had to close down for a month and a half it really hurt the company as you can imagine. Over the last two weeks the phones have been nonstop seven days a week, and their sales for memorial day weekend equaled that of last year even though they had just openEd the doors.

Over the last two weeks the phones have been nonstop seven days a week and their sales for memorial day weekend equals last year even though they had just open the doors as Carl noted it’s more than just the Exitus fromCalifornia

just look at our economy prior to this boverblown virus and overreaching government shut down , that hurt a lot of people.

people have money to US treasury has backfilled a lot of it some wise money was spent will have to pay for in the future but it kept us propped up.

Karl I wish you the best video quality work I just hope there’s enough lots in Havasu to handle all of the construction.

Las Vegas is open as of June 4 next Thursday welcome everyone.

 

[SummitKarl]

As many nowhere in the patio cover manufacturing and distribution business in Las Vegas. We are so busy we can’t hardly keep up with the orders and I’ve hired an independent trucking company to take material back to California.

I just had a discussion with an executive of a large lumber distributor and they also distribute aluminum shade structures in Southern California they are in the same position record sales.

Another friend owns a number of patio furniture stores really nice stuff, they had to close down for a month and a half it really hurt the company as you can imagine. Over the last two weeks the phones have been nonstop seven days a week, and their sales for memorial day weekend equaled that of last year even though they had just openEd the doors.

Over the last two weeks the phones have been nonstop seven days a week and their sales for memorial day weekend equals last year even though they had just open the doors as Carl noted it’s more than just the Exitus fromCalifornia

just look at our economy prior to this boverblown virus and overreaching government shut down , that hurt a lot of people.

people have money to US treasury has backfilled a lot of it some wise money was spent will have to pay for in the future but it kept us propped up.

Karl I wish you the best video quality work I just hope there’s enough lots in Havasu to handle all of the construction.

Las Vegas is open as of June 4 next Thursday welcome everyone.

In town ready to go view lots are getting harder to find but plenty of lots that just need a little site work are around, for 6 years now I have been working on and am part of a new development on the north end of town we just opened to the public 4 weeks ago with 169 lots for phase 1 of 3 (about 300 lots total) and we are about 20% sold out already on phase one, I am doing very little repeats and trying to do as many custom designs as I can so it won't look like a development, it's chaos almost panic buying is the feeling I get.

 

[monkeyswrench]

I'm far from any "brain trust" rating, just a guy that by the grace of God made a few good decisions at the right time. I think a lot of the retirees have seen the light, and don't like the view from suburbia in more populated areas. The covid thing has forced people to stay home, where they may have spent a minimum of 40hrs a week away. If you were on the fence about your location, I think that may push you.

As for the current boom...it's great. From doing construction, I learned it's feast or famine. Work as much as you can when there is work, and then the lean times aren't as bad at all. Things will eventually sputter, nothing is endless. Just take advantage of the work when you can.

 

[ONE-A-DAY]

Many people were forced to work from home, and then realized hey I can do this, I can work from anywhere, so lets get the F out of California.

 

[DaytonaBabe]

Praying every day that the market stays hot a little bit longer so we can sell our house easily...

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[AFTERSHOCK RACING+]

yup same here

 

[RiverDave]

Booming here in Phoenix Metro as well. My wife and I purchased a week ago Friday in Maricopa. 35 minutes from my home in Mesa to my dirt. Home should be done by December 2020. Already made 3k in one week. Some California money is buying up the lots. Only 12 left as of yesterday. View attachment 882117 View attachment 882118

Not sure what you are saying here.. you bought a second house in the city?

 

[Bobby V]

In town ready to go view lots are getting harder to find but plenty of lots that just need a little site work are around, for 6 years now I have been working on and am part of a new development on the north end of town we just opened to the public 4 weeks ago with 169 lots for phase 1 of 3 (about 300 lots total) and we are about 20% sold out already on phase one, I am doing very little repeats and trying to do as many custom designs as I can so it won't look like a development, it's chaos almost panic buying is the feeling I get.

Do you have a link to the new development?

 

[Englewood]

I spent the majority of the quarantine at our place in Parker. I always thought id be bored living there...this has really changed my perspective.

 

[JDKRXW]

What does the brain trust have to say, Am I reading this right?, are there other factors you can think of?
looking forward to all your guys input
Thanks
Karl

"other factors" = Canadians looking for winter places.
Phoenix (and area) + Palm Springs + Vegas and Havasu are being over run with these assholes

The stats of my fellow countrymen buying places in the southern US, Mexico and even Belize and Costa Rica are staggering.

 

[SummitKarl]

Many people were forced to work from home, and then realized hey I can do this, I can work from anywhere, so lets get the F out of California.

That is a HUGE part of it, I know many people working from home now out here... our cell service and internet is overwhelmed

 

[SummitKarl]

"other factors" = Canadians looking for winter places.
Phoenix (and area) + Palm Springs + Vegas and Havasu are being over run with these assholes

The stats of my fellow countrymen buying places in the southern US, Mexico and even Belize and Costa Rica are staggering.

The Canadians always has been a big part of the equation for Havasu, even being ordered home early this year sales here were great for the winter visitors

 

[just_floatin]

Not sure what you are saying here.. you bought a second house in the city?

Quoting post #1 - Out of state money coming into the state of AZ. In addition, the amount of RE sales / construction in the suburbs of Phoenix metropolitan much like LHC. Seems to be a statewide boom was my point. I have owned in LHC since 2000.

 

[CarolynandBob]

Many people were forced to work from home, and then realized hey I can do this, I can work from anywhere, so lets get the F out of California.

I believe this is going to change a lot of the country. I think NYC fucked themselves staying closed longer. Companies will always find the cheapest way to get the job done. With telecommuting, I think it was a big unknown on a large scale. Companies were not sure how successful it could be and didn't put to much money into finding out. Now they were forced to find out and with good results. I think commercial real estate will take a big hit as far as office buildings go.

 

[ssc]

I may be in the minority here, but I see way more negatives than positives with what is happening in Havasu with all the building and California folks moving in. And before anyone asks, I am from California and have had a house in Havasu for 11 years and spent time in Havasu prior to that. It will be the law of unintended consequences.

Cheers, Steve

 

[Ziggy]

Not my product(which is cool tho) and it fits the narrative of this thread.

Pretty sure he's been in Havasu a while. Seen him lounging at Jamaica/Kiowa

 

[82daytona]

I may be in the minority here, but I see way more negatives than positives with what is happening in Havasu with all the building and California folks moving in. And before anyone asks, I am from California and have had a house in Havasu for 11 years and spent time in Havasu prior to that. It will be the law of unintended consequences.

Cheers, Steve

Please elaborate. It’s always good hearing all points of view.

 

[Ziggy]

Please elaborate. It’s always good hearing all points of view.

Probably trying to make it more like the place they desperately want(ed) to escape.

 

[ssc]

Please elaborate. It’s always good hearing all points of view.

Sure Eric. Ziggy has summarized it well. There have been disagreements on this forum about how builders in Havasu build showers etc. This from people who build them in CA argue with those in Havasu. Many folks claim they want to leave CA for many reasons, yet fail to see that they then begin the same problems elsewhere. Look at what happened in Oregon and Washington when the great CA existence took place many years ago. Property prices went crazy. The locals hated the CA people. However, greed and money won out. This led to higher taxes for different services and CA begin creeping into local and then state politics and look what they are left with.

I would remind you that Orange County went blue for the first time in the last election. This includes Newport Beach etc. So now we get to the little tourist town of Lake Havasu. The more they build, the more people come from CA to "escape." They bring there CA mindset subconsciously. They get more friends and sooner than later they begin to get involved in local politics. Then we get more traffic and accidents. Then it will be argued that we need more infrastructure and taxes start to go up. Then we get these ridiculous laws to begin interfering with our freedom. Basically, it destroys the Quality of Life that many people claimed they wanted to escape.

I have only had my house here for 11 years. However, as I walk around my neighborhood, I meet folks. Most from CA. It isn't long before they make CA remarks, such as: We need sidewalks and curbs, or I am going to go to the city council meeting to ask for street lights. Or "Did you hear those noisy boats running up river this morning. They need mufflers, or put restriction on how early they can go on the water, or why isn't there a speed limit etc.

On a walk along the channel, I have heard people complaining they can hear gunshots. Noisy boats, speed limits, helmet laws--because they are offended that someone would dare to ride a motorcycle without a helmet. I have been in restaurants when someone walks by with a gun on their side. Good lord, you would think the sky was crashing. I have seen these idiots call the police and or run out because they are scared etc.

We are seeing issues in NV and Arizona has voted Dem in certain places. My family has had a house in Avalon since 72 and I could write a book on what has happened there. So, everyone in certain industries will make money for the time being. The underlying problems of more people will creep along and in a matter of years, the Lake Havasu we once knew will be quite different. It has changed quite a bit in the last 20 years.

I guess I see "The Last Resort ." If you are an Eagles fan, then you know what I am referring too.

Cheers, Steve

 

[paradise]

Sure Eric. Ziggy has summarized it well. There have been disagreements on this forum about how builders in Havasu build showers etc. This from people who build them in CA argue with those in Havasu. Many folks claim they want to leave CA for many reasons, yet fail to see that they then begin the same problems elsewhere. Look at what happened in Oregon and Washington when the great CA existence took place many years ago. Property prices went crazy. The locals hated the CA people. However, greed and money won out. This led to higher taxes for different services and CA begin creeping into local and then state politics and look what they are left with.

I would remind you that Orange County went blue for the first time in the last election. This includes Newport Beach etc. So now we get to the little tourist town of Lake Havasu. The more they build, the more people come from CA to "escape." They bring there CA mindset subconsciously. They get more friends and sooner than later they begin to get involved in local politics. Then we get more traffic and accidents. Then it will be argued that we need more infrastructure and taxes start to go up. Then we get these ridiculous laws to begin interfering with our freedom. Basically, it destroys the Quality of Life that many people claimed they wanted to escape.

I have only had my house here for 11 years. However, as I walk around my neighborhood, I meet folks. Most from CA. It isn't long before they make CA remarks, such as: We need sidewalks and curbs, or I am going to go to the city council meeting to ask for street lights. Or "Did you hear those noisy boats running up river this morning. They need mufflers, or put restriction on how early they can go on the water, or why isn't there a speed limit etc.

On a walk along the channel, I have heard people complaining they can hear gunshots. Noisy boats, speed limits, helmet laws--because they are offended that someone would dare to ride a motorcycle without a helmet. I have been in restaurants when someone walks by with a gun on their side. Good lord, you would think the sky was crashing. I have seen these idiots call the police and or run out because they are scared etc.

We are seeing issues in NV and Arizona has voted Dem in certain places. My family has had a house in Avalon since 72 and I could write a book on what has happened there. So, everyone in certain industries will make money for the time being. The underlying problems of more people will creep along and in a matter of years, the Lake Havasu we once knew will be quite different. It has changed quite a bit in the last 20 years.

I guess I see "The Last Resort ." If you are an Eagles fan, then you know what I am referring too.

Cheers, Steve

Agree 100%. What's interesting is it is so hard not to bring your CA with you... Even when you know your bias and try not to have it.

My wife and I did an east coast tour and driving through some middle of nowhere town we saw this awesome lake. My wife is looking at it and says "Man could you imagine how cool it would be to have a walking path around that lake so you could just take an evening stroll around it?" I stared at her for about 30 seconds until she figured out what she said. We both laughed because we talk crap on the people that bring their CA politics with them and we were no better...

I fear there's no way to turn it around and eventually everywhere will be overrun, which is frightening...

 

[RodnJen]

Agree 100%. What's interesting is it is so hard not to bring your CA with you... Even when you know your bias and try not to have it.

My wife and I did an east coast tour and driving through some middle of nowhere town we saw this awesome lake. My wife is looking at it and says "Man could you imagine how cool it would be to have a walking path around that lake so you could just take an evening stroll around it?" I stared at her for about 30 seconds until she figured out what she said. We both laughed because we talk crap on the people that bring their CA politics with them and we were no better...

I fear there's no way to turn it around and eventually everywhere will be overrun, which is frightening...

Or everywhere will evolve. It is incumbent upon the citizens to vote, be involved and steer the direction of their community.

 

[Andy B.]

Or everywhere will evolve. It is incumbent upon the citizens to vote, be involved and steer the direction of their community.

Even if its the wrong direction sooo sad it only costs our freedom's and livelihood with bullshit taxes to pay for the lazy and illegals of this country Nevada is headed that way luckily headed to Idaho in a few where people can protect themselves and there freedom's!!!!

 

[Dan Lorenze]

First call was Adrenaline Trailers, I am a long time customer. Guy laughed at me and said its all the "Stupid California Covids" making this town packed and no way in hell would he even squeeze me in. I hung up, he just lost a customer forever. WTF. I shit you not, he pretty much laughed at me.

I have always made it a habit of treating clients (or in this case customers) like they are very important to me. It's cliche to say this but if you don't take care of your customers someone will.

 

[pkbullet]

We spent last week shopping for a new home in Ft Worth area that our kids can live in. All the realtors said traffic was down, but sales were up based on the seriousness of the buyers. Inventory was short, many builders had pulled back on spec homes as a result of Covid. In hindsight they all wished they had more competed homes.

 

[DRYHEAT]

Even if its the wrong direction sooo sad it only costs our freedom's and livelihood with bullshit taxes to pay for the lazy and illegals of this country Nevada is headed that way luckily headed to Idaho in a few where people can protect themselves and there freedom's!!!!

It’s going to happen in Idaho, actually it already is. ☹