Democrats Fear What is Coming... The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

[WhatExit?]

"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

Furman’s case begins with the premise that the 2020 pandemic-triggered economic collapse is categorically different than the Great Depression or the Great Recession, which both had slow, grinding recoveries.

Instead, he believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep rebound.

The Covid-19 recession started with a sudden shuttering of many businesses, a nationwide decline in consumption and massive increase in unemployment. But starting around April 15, when economic reopening started to spread but the overall numbers still looked grim, Furman noticed some data that pointed to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a hurricane or industrywide catastrophe like the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Furman’s argument is not that different from the one made by White House economic advisers and Trump, who have predicted an explosive third quarter, and senior adviser Jared Kushner, who said in late April that "the hope is that by July the country's really rocking again." White House officials were thrilled to hear that some of their views have been endorsed by prominent Democrats.

“I totally agree,” Larry Kudlow, head of the White House National Economic Council, replied in a text message when asked about Furman’s analysis. “Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.” He called Furman, whom he said he knows well, “usually a straight shooter. Hats off to him.”

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

www.politico.com

 

[Tank]

I've been saying this from the beginning. People can't WAIT to get out and spend money. The line to get into Ross in Ventura just now was around the corner and down the block! Havasu has been in constant "holiday weekend" mode for 4 weeks! People are buying houses and keep on moving. The argument against this that I see having some ground is that all the paused evictions and those that don't have a job to come back too (there will be many places closing) will affect the economy in a few months. But I still think big come back and leveling off lower than where we were a few months ago but still good which is what the economy kind'a needed. I'ts a minor adjustment on the back of a steep decline into a steep incline.

 

[The Phantom]

We will see how it goes when it’s time to pay the piper.

 

[94Nautique]

I've been saying this from the beginning. People can't WAIT to get out and spend money. The line to get into Ross in Ventura just now was around the corner and down the block! Havasu has been in constant "holiday weekend" mode for 4 weeks! People are buying houses and keep on moving. The argument against this that I see having some ground is that all the paused evictions and those that don't have a job to come back too (there will be many places closing) will affect the economy in a few months. But I still think big come back and leveling off lower than where we were a few months ago but still good which is what the economy kind'a needed. I'ts a minor adjustment on the back of a steep decline into a steep incline.

I pray that you are right, I just wonder how long the "I just want someone to make me a meal and serve me a beer" turns into "oh shit, my customers are not buying, my company is still laying off people, my state is doubling my taxes..."

I'm becoming more optimistic we are in an "ok" position to have a good rebound.

If we have a few weeks of gang busters, and I mean over the top back to normal spending by business and consumer, it could be good. If not, the 40 million unemployed may turn into only 30 million or 20 million unemployed and that could take too long to run through the system and we could have an extended recovery.

I know the opened states will be big winners, and states like CA and NY will be sucking gas unless they step back and let it all hang out.

 

[regor]

The problem is you can’t have a big recovery without California and New York. Those two ass clowns will keep their economies closed until they get their federal bail out dollars, mark my words.

Democrats are true scum bags and their voters are dumb ass sheep.

 

[rivrrts429]

The problem is you can’t have a big recovery without California and New York. Those two ass clowns will keep their economies closed until they get their federal bail out dollars, mark my words.

Democrats are true scum bags and their voters are dumb ass sheep.

100% [emoji1303]

 

[530RL]

"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

Furman’s case begins with the premise that the 2020 pandemic-triggered economic collapse is categorically different than the Great Depression or the Great Recession, which both had slow, grinding recoveries.

Instead, he believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep rebound.

The Covid-19 recession started with a sudden shuttering of many businesses, a nationwide decline in consumption and massive increase in unemployment. But starting around April 15, when economic reopening started to spread but the overall numbers still looked grim, Furman noticed some data that pointed to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a hurricane or industrywide catastrophe like the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Furman’s argument is not that different from the one made by White House economic advisers and Trump, who have predicted an explosive third quarter, and senior adviser Jared Kushner, who said in late April that "the hope is that by July the country's really rocking again." White House officials were thrilled to hear that some of their views have been endorsed by prominent Democrats.

“I totally agree,” Larry Kudlow, head of the White House National Economic Council, replied in a text message when asked about Furman’s analysis. “Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.” He called Furman, whom he said he knows well, “usually a straight shooter. Hats off to him.”

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

www.politico.com

Furman's premise is that voters are innumerate morons who have almost no idea what is happening to them and if the growth numbers are good right before the election, then by this view voters will mechanically reward Trump even if it's a partial bounce-back from a collapse he caused himself through his own ineptitude.

If Trump wins he wins because he fully embodies what Trump voters want America to be. Not because Trump voters are complete morons confused that 4% growth off a 30% percent reduction is actually better than where they were economically prior to the pandemic.

 

[The Phantom]

The problem is you can’t have a big recovery without California and New York. Those two ass clowns will keep their economies closed until they get their federal bail out dollars, mark my words.

Democrats are true scum bags and their voters are dumb ass sheep.

Baa baa baa

I live in California.

 

[The Phantom]

a collapse he caused himself through his own ineptitude.

So sad, moving the factory from China to Korea and putting the extra duties in your pocket.

Mr. 530 RL you’re always good for a laugh.

 

[regor]

a collapse he caused himself through his own ineptitude.

And who’s your model economy for this bullshit statement?

I asked you that about testing and in true bitch fashion............you never answered.

 

[94Nautique]

Furman's premise is that voters are innumerate morons who have almost no idea what is happening to them and if the growth numbers are good right before the election, then by this view voters will mechanically reward Trump even if it's a partial bounce-back from a collapse he caused himself through his own ineptitude.

If Trump wins he wins because he fully embodies what Trump voters want America to be. Not because Trump voters are complete morons confused that 4% growth off a 30% percent reduction is actually better than where they were economically prior to the pandemic.

There ya go, talking about voting again.

And using absolutes like the word “fully”

You really think anyone reads anything after your straw man?

 

[94Nautique]

The problem is you can’t have a big recovery without California and New York. Those two ass clowns will keep their economies closed until they get their federal bail out dollars, mark my words.

Democrats are true scum bags and their voters are dumb ass sheep.

Holy Crapola, I’m trying to look at the positive since WTG thinks ima gonna cap myself or something.

Ya, CA and NY are the economic engine of much of the US gdp. That and DC, for the gubment spending, but ya it’ll be bad and Cuomo and Grabbin pull their pee brains out’in dare asses.

 

[wallnutz]

Furman's premise is that voters are innumerate morons who have almost no idea what is happening to them and if the growth numbers are good right before the election, then by this view voters will mechanically reward Trump even if it's a partial bounce-back from a collapse he caused himself through his own ineptitude.

If Trump wins he wins because he fully embodies what Trump voters want America to be. Not because Trump voters are complete morons confused that 4% growth off a 30% percent reduction is actually better than where they were economically prior to the pandemic.

Lol

 

[DLow]

even if it's a partial bounce-back from a collapse he caused himself through his own ineptitude.

Aaaaaaahahahahaha!

 

[530RL]

Aaaaaaahahahahaha!

Even when I defend Trump voters I get push back........

 

[regor]

Even when I defend Trump voters I get push back........

Yea, we don't like being defended by an exposed RINO that talks out of both sides of their pie hole.

 

[DLow]

Even when I defend Trump voters I get push back........

I’m sorry. I must have misread your post. I’m not sure exactly how you were defending Trump in that one. It seems... twisted.

 

[530RL]

I’m sorry. I must have misread your post. I’m not sure exactly how you were defending Trump in that one. It seems... twisted.

I was defending Trump voters from Furman's premise in the OP's article that Trump voters were innumerate and would fall for high growth off a much smaller base.

 

[The Phantom]

Even when I defend Trump voters I get push back........

Perhaps everybody loves to disagree with you.
Maybe it’s your delivery or maybe the fork in your tongue.

 

[was thatguy]

Furman's premise is that voters are innumerate morons who have almost no idea what is happening to them and if the growth numbers are good right before the election, then by this view voters will mechanically reward Trump even if it's a partial bounce-back from a collapse he caused himself through his own ineptitude.

If Trump wins he wins because he fully embodies what Trump voters want America to be. Not because Trump voters are complete morons confused that 4% growth off a 30% percent reduction is actually better than where they were economically prior to the pandemic.

 

[Angler]

 

[YumaRivernaut]

even if it's a partial bounce-back from a collapse he caused himself through his own ineptitude.