For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[Cdog]

$200 sq ft? Has to be built with “basic” builder grade materials. I just don’t see thats even possible in todays pricing.

I was quoted $335-345 on 3444 sf home, 996 sf 3 car garage truck deep, 461 sf covered patio, 100 sf front porch. With no land in November 22.

Pricing may have come down some but

Happy to prove it to anyone looking in N Scottsdale Rio Verde. He’s not interested in other areas. He has enough work to keep him busy here.

 

[rivrrts429]

Or the SRT market isn’t as strong as everyone thought? If insurance was the only reason I be surprised but yes I know what it cost family has a couple houses in areas with astronomical fire insurance cost.

It didn’t make sense to me and we sold. What makes sense to me may not make sense to others.

 

[Flatsix66]

$200 sq ft? Has to be built with “basic” builder grade materials. I just don’t see thats even possible in todays pricing.

I was quoted $335-345 on 3444 sf home, 996 sf 3 car garage truck deep, 461 sf covered patio, 100 sf front porch. With no land in November 22.

Pricing may have come down some but

Just last week we were meeting with custom home builders in the Prescott area to build our plans on a lot we bought a few years ago. The rough quotes are coming in around $315-$425sqft. This includes clearing the land, grading, septic, and pulling utilities 700' ft, road base. Of the four builders we talked to all were fully booked out for the next 18 months and none seemed really hungry for our business, I guess they haven't read this thread about the upcoming crash Even at this build cost, we expect that the build costs will come well within the finished property resale value. We have been watching the build costs for the last few years and I really don't think build costs will ever come done enough to justify putting off getting started.

 

[gqchris]

Interested in your findings in TN, we're also looking there.

My Dad lives in Greeneville so I am looking in that area, its 1 Hour from Knoxville Will report back. He states it is a mini California there now and is not happy about it, so there is that issue.

 

[Cdog]

Just last week we were meeting with custom home builders in the Prescott area to build our plans on a lot we bought a few years ago. The rough quotes are coming in around $315-$425sqft. This includes clearing the land, grading, septic, and pulling utilities 700' ft, road base. Of the four builders we talked to all were fully booked out for the next 18 months and none seemed really hungry for our business, I guess they haven't read this thread about the upcoming crash Even at this build cost, we expect that the build costs will come well within the finished property resale value. We have been watching the build costs for the last few years and I really don't think build costs will ever come done enough to justify putting off getting started.

And that sounds right. Prescott is more expensive since there are less trades and limited work force. My builder has family up there and knows a lot of the local trades. It's definitely more costly. That said the PPSF I'm quoting is baseline soft dig limited grading and fill for the areas like Cave Creek, N Scottsdale & Carefree. Conditions change based on the lot. Pre existing well which are very common for Rio Verde. Fountain Hills cliff lots double the PPSF.

My numbers are based off a recent retired Navy guy I was referred that came from Virginia last month. They will be back on Labor Day weekend to buy a lot if all goes well.

 

[attitude]

What’s the consensus on Buckeye/Tonopah AZ? Seems like this area is a little more within my budget. 2 hours from the river, 3 hours from Glamis.

2319 S 337th Ave, Tonopah, AZ 85354 | Zillow

2319 S 337th Ave, Tonopah AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 2200 sq ft and was built in 2022.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $440,000 in December 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $448,400, which has increased by $3,287 in the last 30 days.The...

www.zillow.com

 

[stokerwhore]

What’s the consensus on Buckeye/Tonopah AZ? Seems like this area is a little more within my budget. 2 hours from the river, 3 hours from Glamis.

2319 S 337th Ave, Tonopah, AZ 85354 | Zillow

2319 S 337th Ave, Tonopah AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 2200 sq ft and was built in 2022.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $440,000 in December 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $448,400, which has increased by $3,287 in the last 30 days.The...

www.zillow.com

Very nice view of the palo verde reactor at night

 

[Orange Juice]

What’s the consensus on Buckeye/Tonopah AZ? Seems like this area is a little more within my budget. 2 hours from the river, 3 hours from Glamis.

2319 S 337th Ave, Tonopah, AZ 85354 | Zillow

2319 S 337th Ave, Tonopah AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 2200 sq ft and was built in 2022.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $440,000 in December 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $448,400, which has increased by $3,287 in the last 30 days.The...

www.zillow.com

You are buy a lot in the middle of the desert. Dirt roads. If that’s your thing?

 

[attitude]

You are buy a lot in the middle of the desert. Dirt roads. If that’s your thing?

Just browsing, that house was just an example. You can find houses that are off of paved roads. Not sure if I want to go new build in the sticks with some property or new build in a cookie cutter neighborhood. Either way new builds seem to be cheaper than older homes for some reason.

I love the scenery of North Scottsdale but I don’t think my budget will get me something I would be excited about.

 

[retaocleg]

Very nice view of the palo verde reactor at night

and 75 pound tomatoes in the garden.......take the good with the bad?

 

[530RL]

I don’t know how you can build for under $200 at profit.

But if it’s happening I would tell someone to jump on it. I can barely keep costs under $100 a ft on my own projects lol.

Construction costs excluding land, lot premiums, view premiums, upgrades, water, permits, utility hook up fees, supervision, overhead or profit.

Tract construction so they don't even have to look at the plans to build it. Production work.

This is just the number that is paid to the subcontractors for base construction and finishes. First move up home, not starter home. Two car garage.

3,035 square feet is 109.46 PSF
1,469 square feet is 136.18 PSF

In 2007 during the boom, that number was below 50 PSF.

 

[Orange Juice]

Very nice view of the palo verde reactor at night

I think I’d be ok with that view. The commute into Phoenix is always a disaster on the 10 freeway.

 

[attitude]

Is there such thing as a custom starter home? Lol

 

[Cdog]

What’s the consensus on Buckeye/Tonopah AZ? Seems like this area is a little more within my budget. 2 hours from the river, 3 hours from Glamis.

2319 S 337th Ave, Tonopah, AZ 85354 | Zillow

2319 S 337th Ave, Tonopah AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 2200 sq ft and was built in 2022.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $440,000 in December 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $448,400, which has increased by $3,287 in the last 30 days.The...

www.zillow.com

It's just dependent on what your want out of the property. I sold a new build Meritage home with an RV garage to a board member earlier this year. Just closed last month. Under 500k in Buckeye.

 

[Todd Mohr]

What’s the consensus on Buckeye/Tonopah AZ? Seems like this area is a little more within my budget. 2 hours from the river, 3 hours from Glamis.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/...e&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare[/UR

http://Buckeye yes, Tonopah too muc...home but is a better investment than renting.

 

[Orange Juice]

Just browsing, that house was just an example. You can find houses that are off of paved roads. Not sure if I want to go new build in the sticks with some property or new build in a cookie cutter neighborhood. Either way new builds seem to be cheaper than older homes for some reason.

I love the scenery of North Scottsdale but I don’t think my budget will get me something I would be excited about.

For me, the sweat spot for a single family detached home is 2100-2700sqft, 3 car garage, 10,000sqft ( 1/4 acre) lot, built after 1978, block wall fence.

After that, you’re looking at lots and general location. Does the land have city water/sewer? How’s the cell phone reception out that way? I have trouble streaming at our cabin on the weekends.
I could not live in an area with mainly dirt roads. Too much dust.

I also discount the property, if it doesn’t already have 220volts wired in the garage ( EV Charging).

 

[EmpirE231]

Some good deals coming in CRE.

View attachment 1234318

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Downtown LA’s Office Distress Shows the Pain Coming for Cities

Brookfield has defaulted on three towers, while other landlords have sold for a loss or face foreclosure.

www.bloomberg.com

Coming to a downtown near you!!!

all those notes held by banks........ more bailouts in 5...4...3...2

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Is there such thing as a custom starter home? Lol

Yes. You can customize it however you want after purchase

 

[pronstar]

Is there such thing as a custom starter home? Lol

I don’t think there is such a thing as a new-build starter home anymore…

 

[Orange Juice]

I don’t think there is such a thing as a new-build starter home anymore…

Condos

 

[HNL2LHC]

What’s the consensus on Buckeye/Tonopah AZ? Seems like this area is a little more within my budget. 2 hours from the river, 3 hours from Glamis.

2319 S 337th Ave, Tonopah, AZ 85354 | Zillow

2319 S 337th Ave, Tonopah AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 2200 sq ft and was built in 2022.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $440,000 in December 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $448,400, which has increased by $3,287 in the last 30 days.The...

www.zillow.com

I go to Buckeye a couple of times a year for business. Been doing it for a few years now. The growth is crazy. THe company I go to was telling me how growth and it is mind blowing. I do like the fact that they are proactive on the road work. I see in a decade it will merge with Goodyear. I’d buy on the WEst if you can as it will be closer than the east if you are getting out of town often.

 

[evantwheeler]

Is there such thing as a custom starter home? Lol

Hahaha, yeah, it's called a tiny house or an ADU in you're parents back yard! $300/sf aint bad when its 400 sq ft and you don't have to pay for the land! Joking aside, buy the shittiest house in the best neighborhood if you're looking to raise a family.

 

[attitude]

I go to Buckeye a couple of times a year for business. Been doing it for a few years now. The growth is crazy. THe company I go to was telling me how growth and it is mind blowing. I do like the fact that they are proactive on the road work. I see in a decade it will merge with Goodyear. I’d buy on the WEst if you can as it will be closer than the east if you are getting out of town often.

Buckeye seems to be more in my budget, the only issue is everything has an HOA and it looks like none of them allow RVs even if the homes has RV parking.

 

[530RL]

Today's data and associated commentary.

MSN

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Have some buyers right now. They got $60k saved, so $50k DP and $10k for closing costs.

They keep sending me houses between $600k - $650k that they qualify for, just don't want the payment.


With today's rates, the most recent one she sent me would be a total all in payment of almost $5,500/month.......they want to be at $4k - $4300 at the most.

She asked if another $25k would get them there and was quite surprised when I had to break the news that the payment only drops $171/month.

Of course the next question was, "what do we need to do to get our payment down?"

Well.......

Look at cheaper houses and pray for rates to drop.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Some good deals coming in CRE.

View attachment 1234318

View attachment 1234317
View attachment 1234316
View attachment 1234315

Downtown LA’s Office Distress Shows the Pain Coming for Cities

Brookfield has defaulted on three towers, while other landlords have sold for a loss or face foreclosure.

www.bloomberg.com

Coming to a downtown near you!!!

Why would a company want to have their offices in downtown LA when they can move to more business friendly cities that don't have bums shitting on sidewalks?

 

[RVR SWPR]

ADU ,LoL,this ADU shit would never been tolerated even just 25 years ago. WTF, wrong with this generation of City Government? Parking situation alone a massive fuck up.

 

[Boatymcboatface]

Have some buyers right now. They got $60k saved, so $50k DP and $10k for closing costs.

They keep sending me houses between $600k - $650k that they qualify for, just don't want the payment.


With today's rates, the most recent one she sent me would be a total all in payment of almost $5,500/month.......they want to be at $4k - $4300 at the most.

She asked if another $25k would get them there and was quite surprised when I had to break the news that the payment only drops $171/month.

Of course the next question was, "what do we need to do to get our payment down?"

Well.......

Look at cheaper houses and pray for rates to drop.

It’s crazy the amount you qualify for versus what you should actually be financing.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

ADU ,LoL,this ADU shit would never been tolerated even just 25 years ago. WTF, wrong with this generation of City Government? Parking situation alone a massive fuck up.

Taxes. They want more tax money.

 

[hallett21]

Taxes. They want more tax money.

They have a place for older parents moving back in etc.

But they have just turned SFR into potential slums lol

 

[RVR SWPR]

Taxes. They want more tax money.

Just about everything totally out of control. The best way thru everyday comes down to living as an individual.

 

[attitude]

It’s crazy the amount you qualify for versus what you should actually be financing.

50% of your pre tax income give or take depending on credit score. Insane…

Apparently this is to allow for someone to purchase a home when there is another stream of income coming into the house that is not on the loan, such as a spouse or a job that doesn’t qualify to be listed as income.

 

[JL95]

Any time @OldSchoolBoats throws around figures is always a reality check. "oh 850k isn't that bad" yeah right

 

[Done-it-again]

Have some buyers right now. They got $60k saved, so $50k DP and $10k for closing costs.

They keep sending me houses between $600k - $650k that they qualify for, just don't want the payment.


With today's rates, the most recent one she sent me would be a total all in payment of almost $5,500/month.......they want to be at $4k - $4300 at the most.

She asked if another $25k would get them there and was quite surprised when I had to break the news that the payment only drops $171/month.

Of course the next question was, "what do we need to do to get our payment down?"

Well.......

Look at cheaper houses and pray for rates to drop.

You can check online for a amortization calculator to get an idea what house pricing they are needing to look for to get the payment they are wanting.

Are they that naive?

 

[Danger Dave]

 

[evantwheeler]

Are they that naive?

" They got $60k saved, so $50k DP and $10k for closing costs.

They keep sending me houses between $600k - $650k"

 

[hallett21]

Any time @OldSchoolBoats throws around figures is always a reality check. "oh 850k isn't that bad" yeah right

I agree the numbers are insane but they seem to be here to stay.

Those who bought in 2018-2019 have probably on the low, gained 30-50% in equity. So they can sell and roll their “profit” into something else. Personally I think that’s where people might get bit.

Rather than pocket the profit people always just roll the gains into something bigger (primary residence and not an investment/cash flow property). And eventually stuff will pull back 10-30% and that’s where people get hurt.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Have some buyers right now. They got $60k saved, so $50k DP and $10k for closing costs.

They keep sending me houses between $600k - $650k that they qualify for, just don't want the payment.


With today's rates, the most recent one she sent me would be a total all in payment of almost $5,500/month.......they want to be at $4k - $4300 at the most.

She asked if another $25k would get them there and was quite surprised when I had to break the news that the payment only drops $171/month.

Of course the next question was, "what do we need to do to get our payment down?"

Well.......

Look at cheaper houses and pray for rates to drop.

No problem, I have just the answer.

 

[Orange Juice]

Taking the Jump from renting to owning has always jumped around. It’s usually about 20% down ( maybe 25%).

Then it should be a sprint ( not a marathon), to pay off the mortgage.

I’m not sure how that works in the multi-family homes being sold today. I’m still trying to figure out the divide between land ownership, and co-op.

 

[HNL2LHC]

Have some buyers right now. They got $60k saved, so $50k DP and $10k for closing costs.

They keep sending me houses between $600k - $650k that they qualify for, just don't want the payment.


With today's rates, the most recent one she sent me would be a total all in payment of almost $5,500/month.......they want to be at $4k - $4300 at the most.

She asked if another $25k would get them there and was quite surprised when I had to break the news that the payment only drops $171/month.

Of course the next question was, "what do we need to do to get our payment down?"

Well.......

Look at cheaper houses and pray for rates to drop.

This was us about 15 years ago. Had a price range of $450k and after 18 months of chasing the climbing market ended up paying $600k. I asked the finance person what I’d qualify for she noted over 7 figures. I was shocked and I expressed that it was a figure that I was not comfortable making that payment for 30 years. If I had been 12 months earlier the $450k would have been doable but the market ran away from us. I am a firm believer to just grab what you can as soon as you are able to make the move up when possible.

 

[Done-it-again]

" They got $60k saved, so $50k DP and $10k for closing costs.

They keep sending me houses between $600k - $650k"

I guess it was there all along... @OldSchoolBoats are said people confused on what they were qualified for vs how much they can spend per month?

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

I guess it was there all along... @OldSchoolBoats are said people confused on what they were qualified for vs how much they can spend per month?

They do mortgage calculators online and forget to add in taxes, insurance and PMI. Some of these places are 2% tax rates so they definitely get sticker shock.

 

[attitude]

They do mortgage calculators online and forget to add in taxes, insurance and PMI. Some of these places are 2% tax rates so they definitely get sticker shock.

Is Zillow decently accurate when it comes to rates and PMI? It shows PMI in the mid $300 range.

 

[RiverDave]

What’s the consensus on Buckeye/Tonopah AZ? Seems like this area is a little more within my budget. 2 hours from the river, 3 hours from Glamis.

2319 S 337th Ave, Tonopah, AZ 85354 | Zillow

2319 S 337th Ave, Tonopah AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 2200 sq ft and was built in 2022.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $440,000 in December 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $448,400, which has increased by $3,287 in the last 30 days.The...

www.zillow.com

There’s nothing out there that I’m aware of?

 

[attitude]

There’s nothing out there that I’m aware of?

Tonopah is in the sticks but it comes with land and no HOAs, Buckeye seems to be a fast growing town, I’d bank on both Buckeye and Goodyear expanding until they meet as someone else had said in this thread.

The greater Phoenix area seems to be expanding on all sides, I would predict buying a house on the outskirts would mean you won’t be on the outskirts for very long. I could be wrong…

 

[Sportin' Wood]

This was us about 15 years ago. Had a price range of $450k and after 18 months of chasing the climbing market ended up paying $600k. I asked the finance person what I’d qualify for she noted over 7 figures. I was shocked and I expressed that it was a figure that I was not comfortable making that payment for 30 years. If I had been 12 months earlier the $450k would have been doable but the market ran away from us. I am a firm believer to just grab what you can as soon as you are able to make the move up when possible.

I recall in 2007 my buddy who was slinging mortgages out of the trunk of his car called me while I was walking a job site we were building models on in French Valley near Temecula/Murrieta/Hemet. I had inquired about buying another property and was curious if I would qualify.

It was at that moment I knew we were all totally screwed. When he told me to try and keep it around $1.5M and that he could get it done with zero down. It hit me like a ton of bricks I suddenly noticed all the new trucks, boats, sportscars, plastic surgery, landscape, pools, etc. There was no way I could swing that kind of payment. Unfortunately, I was too late and was not able to do anything with that knowledge except enjoy the flaming crash into dogshit we all deserved.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Is Zillow decently accurate when it comes to rates and PMI? It shows PMI in the mid $300 range.

No PMI is based on credit and LTV. Also, large companies like Rocket and UWM buy PMI in bulk so they have cheaper PMI rates than other lenders.

 

[cofooter]

Tonopah is in the sticks but it comes with land and no HOAs, Buckeye seems to be a fast growing town, I’d bank on both Buckeye and Goodyear expanding until they meet as someone else had said in this thread.

The greater Phoenix area seems to be expanding on all sides, I would predict buying a house on the outskirts would mean you won’t be on the outskirts for very long. I could be wrong…

That commute to and from downtown on the 10 is going to go from very bad to extremely bad as that area to the west gets built out, keep that in mind.......

 

[Done-it-again]

They do mortgage calculators online and forget to add in taxes, insurance and PMI. Some of these places are 2% tax rates so they definitely get sticker shock.

What the hell is up with people. Why do I find this so mind boggling? Wish I could go through life nonchalantly.

 

[EmpirE231]

with the cost of homeowners insurance going to the moon in CA... that'll definitely put a ding into what someone can "qualify" for