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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

nameisbond

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We did have a little dead cat bounce here when the Bank Of Canada paused raising rates. Real estate agents here have been pricing under market value and are boasting selling over ask. Bank Of Canada surprised everyone but me in raising rates yesterday. Big six banks today raised prime near 7%. I said elsewhere that I'm seeing construction slowing in my neighborhood and now suspect it will come to a halt. Real estate development runs on credit and with the banks raising rates and tightening lending. See big trouble for developers. Second problem is foreign buyers mainly from China. The Chinese real estate market is crashing in China. The first to go like any crash is vacation homes and foreign holdings. I'm a little more optimistic on our American real estate holdings because the area is flooded with retiree's and more coming every day. They are attracted to central Washington State, low property tax, low cost of living and no state income tax.
 

hallett21

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This thread is just about a year old now, I'll share my personal experience, feel free to judge. I'm no expert.

  • Sold home in Reno on June 25th, 2021. $441 sqft. Bidding war FOMO. Moved into an RV full-time to take time to re-purchase. (assumed two-year process) That house was nice, but not worth $441 a sqft to me. Gave up 3.15% rate to gamble.
  • Bought a Montana investment House June 22, 2022, $200 sqft FSBO. Had to do some serious local community networking to find this house off the market. Basically cold called after a death. Flathead Lake view, move-in ready, rented the day it closed. One block from the water. A mile to three launch ramps. 5.5% rate.
  • Escrow opened June 6th, 2023 $277 sqft on a newly built Montana acreage property with a shop (never lived in). Negotiated a 21.5% discount from the original listing price. ($352 sqft) No landscape, a blank slate. Three miles from the launch ramp on Flathead Lake. 6.5% rate.
  • The current average sqft price in our community where both houses are located is $339 sqft.
Since this thread started we have bought two properties. I believe there are deals to be had in almost any market if you dig for them (No deals in that FOMO mess). I also have watched market activity like a hawk for the last three years. No one has a crystal ball, but there is currently a sweet spot to buy IMHO because the future is unknown and potentially at a tipping point. You can use this as an advantage in negotiations because people are anxious. In both cases, we dug into the seller's personal social media and online lives to help us understand the situation they are in. It is pretty easy to figure out if someone has an adjustable HELOC, and it is easy to learn about the seller because people share almost everything on Social Media.

I have no idea what is going to happen, but if rates start to fall, housing will be back off to the races. Hopefully, we have baked in the potential depreciation in the market if housing cools and swings the other way with the price we paid for these properties.

Is anyone else buying and/or selling who has participated in this thread? Curious about what they are seeing.

We had clear goals when we listed our Reno house. Take advantage of the market. Use the equity to buy a more valuable home for the same price or less and gain an additional rental property. In my perception, we will have achieved this if this house closes as assumed on July 6th.

No matter which way you think the market will turn, if you're not in the industry, or you are not actively participating, you are just talking about the weather.
Stoked to hear you guys got something! 👍🏻
 

hallett21

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@OldSchoolBoats
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on these seller buy down deals. Are the homes selling at asking on record?

I’m seeing a lot of stuff around us selling right at asking. Can’t be a coincidence that they are all going like that.
 

OldSchoolBoats

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on these seller buy down deals. Are the homes selling at asking on record?

I’m seeing a lot of stuff around us selling right at asking. Can’t be a coincidence that they are all going like that.

Some offers are stacked so seller nets the same amount with the buydown credit. Appraisals have been coming in at or above value on everything.

Rates topped out yesterday but fell today on increased jobless claims.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Some offers are stacked so seller nets the same amount with the buydown credit. Appraisals have been coming in at or above value on everything.

Rates topped out yesterday but fell today on increased jobless claims.

Thank god. Looking into something for an investment tomorrow. Hoping the 15 year number is under 7% 🤣
 

Havasu blue label

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This thread is just about a year old now, I'll share my personal experience, feel free to judge. I'm no expert.

  • Sold home in Reno on June 25th, 2021. $441 sqft. Bidding war FOMO. Moved into an RV full-time to take time to re-purchase. (assumed two-year process) That house was nice, but not worth $441 a sqft to me. Gave up 3.15% rate to gamble.
  • Bought a Montana investment House June 22, 2022, $200 sqft FSBO. Had to do some serious local community networking to find this house off the market. Basically cold called after a death. Flathead Lake view, move-in ready, rented the day it closed. One block from the water. A mile to three launch ramps. 5.5% rate.
  • Escrow opened June 6th, 2023 $277 sqft on a newly built Montana acreage property with a shop (never lived in). Negotiated a 21.5% discount from the original listing price. ($352 sqft) No landscape, a blank slate. Three miles from the launch ramp on Flathead Lake. 6.5% rate.
  • The current average sqft price in our community where both houses are located is $339 sqft.
Since this thread started we have bought two properties. I believe there are deals to be had in almost any market if you dig for them (No deals in that FOMO mess). I also have watched market activity like a hawk for the last three years. No one has a crystal ball, but there is currently a sweet spot to buy IMHO because the future is unknown and potentially at a tipping point. You can use this as an advantage in negotiations because people are anxious. In both cases, we dug into the seller's personal social media and online lives to help us understand the situation they are in. It is pretty easy to figure out if someone has an adjustable HELOC, and it is easy to learn about the seller because people share almost everything on Social Media.

I have no idea what is going to happen, but if rates start to fall, housing will be back off to the races. Hopefully, we have baked in the potential depreciation in the market if housing cools and swings the other way with the price we paid for these properties.

Is anyone else buying and/or selling who has participated in this thread? Curious about what they are seeing.

We had clear goals when we listed our Reno house. Take advantage of the market. Use the equity to buy a more valuable home for the same price or less and gain an additional rental property. In my perception, we will have achieved this if this house closes as assumed on July 6th.

No matter which way you think the market will turn, if you're not in the industry, or you are not actively participating, you are just talking about the weather. Nice job
 

Gonefishin5555

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Thank god. Looking into something for an investment tomorrow. Hoping the 15 year number is under 7% 🤣
will it cash flow? The only thing I consider for a rental is a retirement home that I rent out for the next 10 years. If I liked it enough I would be okay with a small monthly outflow assuming there was some principal pay down happening. I don’t think it’s worth the risk at this point.
 

Gonefishin5555

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This thread is just about a year old now, I'll share my personal experience, feel free to judge. I'm no expert.

  • Sold home in Reno on June 25th, 2021. $441 sqft. Bidding war FOMO. Moved into an RV full-time to take time to re-purchase. (assumed two-year process) That house was nice, but not worth $441 a sqft to me. Gave up 3.15% rate to gamble.
  • Bought a Montana investment House June 22, 2022, $200 sqft FSBO. Had to do some serious local community networking to find this house off the market. Basically cold called after a death. Flathead Lake view, move-in ready, rented the day it closed. One block from the water. A mile to three launch ramps. 5.5% rate.
  • Escrow opened June 6th, 2023 $277 sqft on a newly built Montana acreage property with a shop (never lived in). Negotiated a 21.5% discount from the original listing price. ($352 sqft) No landscape, a blank slate. Three miles from the launch ramp on Flathead Lake. 6.5% rate.
  • The current average sqft price in our community where both houses are located is $339 sqft.
Since this thread started we have bought two properties. I believe there are deals to be had in almost any market if you dig for them (No deals in that FOMO mess). I also have watched market activity like a hawk for the last three years. No one has a crystal ball, but there is currently a sweet spot to buy IMHO because the future is unknown and potentially at a tipping point. You can use this as an advantage in negotiations because people are anxious. In both cases, we dug into the seller's personal social media and online lives to help us understand the situation they are in. It is pretty easy to figure out if someone has an adjustable HELOC, and it is easy to learn about the seller because people share almost everything on Social Media.

I have no idea what is going to happen, but if rates start to fall, housing will be back off to the races. Hopefully, we have baked in the potential depreciation in the market if housing cools and swings the other way with the price we paid for these properties.

Is anyone else buying and/or selling who has participated in this thread? Curious about what they are seeing.

We had clear goals when we listed our Reno house. Take advantage of the market. Use the equity to buy a more valuable home for the same price or less and gain an additional rental property. In my perception, we will have achieved this if this house closes as assumed on July 6th.

No matter which way you think the market will turn, if you're not in the industry, or you are not actively participating, you are just talking about the weather.
If you looked back at this point do you think you came out ahead financially doing what you did vs staying put in Reno? Obviously a lot of moving parts on that analysis.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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will it cash flow? The only thing I consider for a rental is a retirement home that I rent out for the next 10 years. If I liked it enough I would be okay with a small monthly outflow assuming there was some principal pay down happening. I don’t think it’s worth the risk at this point.

It will cash flow $700/+ month with my current modeling on a 15 year term. My challenge is finding the highest cash flow for my investment.
 

regor

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Just basically bought a house at asking price for the kid in Maricopa County.

I was looking in Queen Creek for myself and digging the Toll Brothers homes, but I'd prefer more land. Their new homes are nice!!!
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Just basically bought a house at asking price for the kid in Maricopa County.

I was looking in Queen Creek for myself and digging the Toll Brothers homes, but I'd prefer more land. Their new homes are nice!!!

Sticking it right to the chamber of commerce I see.
 

Cdog

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on these seller buy down deals. Are the homes selling at asking on record?

I’m seeing a lot of stuff around us selling right at asking. Can’t be a coincidence that they are all going like that.
In Escrow for 859,000.



In escrow for $939,000

I should have this sold within 10k of asking price. The views and saves are way above average. I have two buyers that want it but want to get their home in escrow first.


Quite a few buyers I meet came from CA during covid times and now want something different now that there are better options to fit their lifestyle.
 

Sportin' Wood

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If you looked back at this point do you think you came out ahead financially doing what you did vs staying put in Reno? Obviously a lot of moving parts on that analysis.
There is a lot going on with that question. Yes, but not just for housing. We have some work-related things that drove a lot of the reasons for us to leave. We did not love Reno, it has gone further downhill fast, etc.
Thank god. Looking into something for an investment tomorrow. Hoping the 15 year number is under 7% 🤣
It was earlier this week.
 

angiebaby

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If you looked back at this point do you think you came out ahead financially doing what you did vs staying put in Reno? Obviously a lot of moving parts on that analysis.

Great question. I guess it depends. We could be banking a lot more cash (but we probably wouldn't be) if we had stayed in Reno. Our payments will now be higher, but we split the profit of the Reno house between two new (to us) homes. I guess it all depends if property values go up or down in this area. We didn't have many friends in Reno after eight years, and we both hated my job. Jeff most likely would have been pigeonholed and back in the office in a role he did not want by now if we had stayed. We absolutely were over the wind. Every day. 25-40 mph winds. Rare days with little wind (October) and many days with more than 40 mph. Bums have taken over downtown with permission from the mayor. Our house was small (1600 sq/ft but on an acre), and our next step was most likely at least $100K for an addition. So there were other factors at play.

The experiences we've had over the past two years and the friends we have made are priceless. It has been challenging living and working in such a small space during that time, but I think, in the end, it has strengthened our relationship and communication. There is more to life than financial gain, but that's not to say financial gain is not important. Having two properties was one of our goals, and we've attained that. Plus, we get to summer in the Rocky Mountains and winter in Lake Havasu. Considering we were two kids growing up in poverty, I'll take that as an overall win.

If the house closes with no issues, I'll share pics. The view is incredible, as is the kitchen. I am so excited.
 
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evantwheeler

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This thread is just about a year old now, I'll share my personal experience, feel free to judge. I'm no expert.

  • Sold home in Reno on June 25th, 2021. $441 sqft. Bidding war FOMO. Moved into an RV full-time to take time to re-purchase. (assumed two-year process) That house was nice, but not worth $441 a sqft to me. Gave up 3.15% rate to gamble.
  • Bought a Montana investment House June 22, 2022, $200 sqft FSBO. Had to do some serious local community networking to find this house off the market. Basically cold called after a death. Flathead Lake view, move-in ready, rented the day it closed. One block from the water. A mile to three launch ramps. 5.5% rate.
  • Escrow opened June 6th, 2023 $277 sqft on a newly built Montana acreage property with a shop (never lived in). Negotiated a 21.5% discount from the original listing price. ($352 sqft) No landscape, a blank slate. Three miles from the launch ramp on Flathead Lake. 6.5% rate.
  • The current average sqft price in our community where both houses are located is $339 sqft.
Since this thread started we have bought two properties. I believe there are deals to be had in almost any market if you dig for them (No deals in that FOMO mess). I also have watched market activity like a hawk for the last three years. No one has a crystal ball, but there is currently a sweet spot to buy IMHO because the future is unknown and potentially at a tipping point. You can use this as an advantage in negotiations because people are anxious. In both cases, we dug into the seller's personal social media and online lives to help us understand the situation they are in. It is pretty easy to figure out if someone has an adjustable HELOC, and it is easy to learn about the seller because people share almost everything on Social Media.

I have no idea what is going to happen, but if rates start to fall, housing will be back off to the races. Hopefully, we have baked in the potential depreciation in the market if housing cools and swings the other way with the price we paid for these properties.

Is anyone else buying and/or selling who has participated in this thread? Curious about what they are seeing.

We had clear goals when we listed our Reno house. Take advantage of the market. Use the equity to buy a more valuable home for the same price or less and gain an additional rental property. In my perception, we will have achieved this if this house closes as assumed on July 6th.

No matter which way you think the market will turn, if you're not in the industry, or you are not actively participating, you are just talking about the weather.
There are deals to be had in any market. It takes persistent effort, knowledge, some courage, and many times a little luck. You also have to be prepared to make a decision and move on it quickly ie. cash on hand or readily available financing. I am cash poor due to a buy last fall, and am passing on a cash deal to buy another neighboring property next to my home in Menifee (a block from your old place). I am trying to get it into the right hands so that i know/like my neighbors on all sides.
 

Sportin' Wood

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There are deals to be had in any market. It takes persistent effort, knowledge, some courage, and many times a little luck. You also have to be prepared to make a decision and move on it quickly ie. cash on hand or readily available financing. I am cash poor due to a buy last fall, and am passing on a cash deal to buy another neighboring property next to my home in Menifee (a block from your old place). I am trying to get it into the right hands so that i know/like my neighbors on all sides.
Yea, we are gonna be broke for a while after this purchase. It's gonna take time to rebuild the cash. The Menifee I grew up in sets the standard in which we judge all other areas. Menifee in the '70s and early '80s was pretty awesome. I guess the same can be said for a lot of places. Small-town rural communities are the best.
 

530RL

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Orange Juice

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Just basically bought a house at asking price for the kid in Maricopa County.

I was looking in Queen Creek for myself and digging the Toll Brothers homes, but I'd prefer more land. Their new homes are nice!!!
You‘re gonna need a summer cabin in the mountains😉.
I think cdog has a grip on the Phoenix area, from the posts I’ve seen over the years.
Don’t blow it all on the Phoenix area house. Save a little for the cabin😏

 
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mesquito_creek

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You‘re gonna need a summer cabin in the mountains😉.
I think cdog has a grip on the Phoenix area, from the posts I’ve seen over the years.
Don’t blow it all on the Phoenix area house. Save a little for the cabin😏


800k and it’s right in the pattern for the busiest training airport in the southwest.

When I am flying in circles for an hour or more with 4 other planes all I can think is how did these people decide this was a good idea?
 

Cdog

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You‘re gonna need a summer cabin in the mountains😉.
I think cdog has a grip on the Phoenix area, from the posts I’ve seen over the years.
Don’t blow it all on the Phoenix area house. Save a little for the cabin😏

Days on market is brutal on the listing. They need to get serious with the price reductions. Probably start at 749k. It's a nice home and I've shown plenty in the area. Most are drawn towards larger lots and 3k + homes. Search criteria can be a bitch on homes just under a threshold.
 

Englewood

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Interesting chart...
A886FF8B-213E-434A-8F7E-1EFC304C16E0_1_201_a.jpeg
 

Cole Trickle

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We will see how it goes.

FIL house just hit the market yesterday after new paint/carpet. My SIL is the one incharge of the estate and is worried because its not that nice. I had to explain to her its nice for the "price" and for the "area". Probably someone's first buy into the market.

I think it might be the cheapest single family in the area.

 

shintoooo

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Neighbor four houses down from us listed for $1.599 mil and closed at $1.65 mil a few days ago. They bought the house on 8/4/2021 for $1.4 mil.

They didn't do anything to the house at all. It was probably updated in the early 2020's. Nice house with a pool in a great school district.
 

RiverDave

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Neighbor four houses down from us listed for $1.599 mil and closed at $1.65 mil a few days ago. They bought the house on 8/4/2021 for $1.4 mil.

They didn't do anything to the house at all. It was probably updated in the early 2020's. Nice house with a pool in a great school district.

We are selling a ton of houses right now.. so here it is a year plus later and the world didn’t end.
 

TimeBandit

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If you live in LA City or County you should really consider adding an ADU.

These people effectively are gonna print money.



Edit: home sold in 22 and they added an ADU with some bathroom remodels.
The flipper paid $929. Now it's $1.5mil, they are trying to print some money.

At the 2022 $799. ask I think that was all the money for that house.

The remodel and staging look great, but $1.5 mil? yikes.
 
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hallett21

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The flipper paid $929. Now it's $1.5mil, it might rent for $6500/month all in?? ($78,000)

property taxes will jump to $15,000. per year, insurance $1,200.

1.5 mil can earn 5% today, or $75,000.
I can’t wrap my head around rents right now, but I think your numbers are close.

My guess is that it’s sold within 60 days.
 

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“There is also a genuine hope that because of AI, we could be in the midst of a structural upgrade to economic growth prospects. This could be like the 1990s when internet stocks led to growth in the tech sector but then had ramifications for the entire economy.”
 

LargeOrangeFont

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“There is also a genuine hope that because of AI, we could be in the midst of a structural upgrade to economic growth prospects. This could be like the 1990s when internet stocks led to growth in the tech sector but then had ramifications for the entire economy.”

My CEO just said that in our all hands today.
 

angiebaby

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I found this interesting but not surprising, based on the reduced traffic and available RV spots up here in God's Country this summer. I also read an article stating Glacier NP is partnering with STR owners in the area to house employees for the summer since many were having difficulty finding vacation renters. Alltherooms seems like a legit analytic site. I went on and could see limited data, but any valuable data costs $$. Inventory is still crazy tight up here, so it doesn't look like it's really having an effect on anything yet.

Screen Shot 2023-06-27 at 8.56.51 PM.png
 

Englewood

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I found this interesting but not surprising, based on the reduced traffic and available RV spots up here in God's Country this summer. I also read an article stating Glacier NP is partnering with STR owners in the area to house employees for the summer since many were having difficulty finding vacation renters. Alltherooms seems like a legit analytic site. I went on and could see limited data, but any valuable data costs $$. Inventory is still crazy tight up here, so it doesn't look like it's really having an effect on anything yet.

View attachment 1246683
Wow...that is massive. I knew Havasu bookings were way down, but 50.4%...😳!
 

angiebaby

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Wow...that is massive. I knew Havasu bookings were way down, but 50.4%...😳!

Keep in mind, this doesn't reflect bookings, it reflects revenue. Could be price reductions, bookings, who knows what else. Additionally, I'm not sure where this company AlltheRooms gets its information from. But yes, it's pretty significant, IMO.
 
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