For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[NicPaus]

i think as far as Kalifornia the saving grace is ADU permitting...

this saved the contractors from losing all their work ??? think it would be alot slower otherwise ??

thats my ASSessment ..

If the cities were not so slow on approving them and any job. Work would be much better. As it is my area is still booming.

Just ran into a old friend at Home depot Torrance. He moved to Texas. But is back here trying to get final inspection on a remodel in Santa Monica. Took 8 months to get approved and 2 years. He said it takes 2-4 weeks to get the city inspector to come out when scheduling inspections.

He is building in Texas and Oklahoma. In Oklahoma no permits required just a $300 septic permit. He can build 4 new houses in Texas for what the 1 remodel in CA costs.

 

[cofooter]

60 day notice in most states.

Or pay them in lieu of notice.....

 

[Floaterboat]

60 day notice in most states.

There is a 90 day look back if they did more than one round of layoffs.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

If your laying off 17k workers I doubt your laying off only dead weight. Maybe you can but I would have to imagine that there are good people rolled up in this layoff.

 

[regor]

Mortgage rates have jumped higher in recent weeks — an ugly surprise for would-be homebuyers who were hoping the Federal Reserve’s outsize rate cuts last month would provide relief.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased for the third week in a row to 6.5%, according to Freddie Mac.

That rate is a quarter-point higher than it was two weeks ago.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Mortgage rates have jumped higher in recent weeks — an ugly surprise for would-be homebuyers who were hoping the Federal Reserve’s outsize rate cuts last month would provide relief.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased for the third week in a row to 6.5%, according to Freddie Mac.

That rate is a quarter-point higher than it was two weeks ago.

The bond market priced in two potentially three rate cuts before the end of the year. Economic data post the first rate cut has not been showing weaker employment numbers or a reduction in inflation. The fed may have messed up by cutting when they did. The feds attempt to influence the election is looking like it may have backfired

Oh yeah but the fed doesn't play politics... I forgot....

 

[Orange Juice]

The remodel flips are starting to pickup again in my area of Northeast Phoenix.
Hold onto your hats

 

[boatnam2]

I just visited my daughter in Bentonville/rogers area of Arkansas, there is so many buildings and tracts of homes being built I was blown away, the town is where Walmart started so pretty much a Walmart every mile or so, every person staying at hotel was there for Walmart and the few people I talked to at airport coming from cali were all vesting their kids who moved there to work for Walmart. Tyson chicken is also there and is the biggest distributor of chicken in the world. Average new tract home around 400k, 10 years ago you could buy a custom brick home on a few acres for 80-90k.

 

[Deckin Around]

My buddy I went to HS with owns this house in the Keys in Parker and he just had it listed. It’s probably one of if not the smallest homes in the Keys. He has owned it since 2018, done nothing but a new AC, mister system and new front door and it is listed for more than double he paid. $525,000 / $1,149,000. Not a bad 6 year investment.
It will sell and get bulldozed for a new mega build is my bet.

8701 Moovalya Dr, Parker, AZ 85344 | Zillow

8701 Moovalya Dr, Parker AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 1300 sq ft and was built in 1975.It contains 2 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $525,000 in March 2018. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $943,200, which has decreased by $28,229 in the last 30 days.The...

www.zillow.com

 

[regor]

US Existing Home Sales Slump To Lowest Since 2010​

...and rate-cuts aren't helping...

WED OCT 23, AT 7:07 AM

 

[Englewood]

US Existing Home Sales Slump To Lowest Since 2010​

...and rate-cuts aren't helping...

WED OCT 23, AT 7:07 AM

Keep in mind that this is for sales, not prices. Sales have been down for some time as people are handcuffed by 3% interest rates. If rates do not go below 5%, I believe this will be the new norm.

 

[NicPaus]

Yeah to many people are married to there rate to sell. Causing a inventory shortage here. Majority of the listings i have bid or looked at are for parents that passed are in care facilities or moved in with family to take care of them.

People that are ready to upgrade are waiting on rates. Hard to go from a 4k mortgage to a 12k.

 

[zhandfull]

Yeah to many people are married to there rate to sell. Causing a inventory shortage here. Majority of the listings i have bid or looked at are for parents that passed are in care facilities or moved in with family to take care of them.

People that are ready to upgrade are waiting on rates. Hard to go from a 4k mortgage to a 12k.

Rates and taxes. If I bought my little tract home today. The payment would be $500 more a month just in property taxes.

 

[EmpirE231]

Neighbors place listed for 1.8 and sold in 2 days. He bought it in 1998 for 225K. granted he's done a lot and added a shop garage... but damn, inflation is a mofo.

In other news TGI FRIDAYS closed Riverside and Corona dos lagos locations, sounds like they're headed for BK

 

[JLG614]

The housing market seems odd to me at this point. My wife and I are looking anywhere from La Habra Heights to Norco and everything in between. There has definitely been a big increase in listings in the last two months. But it seems like the homes either sell in a day or are listed on there for a month with no movement. It seems like pricing has finally settled and its not insane asking prices. Also seeing some price decreases. I still believe the market is 10-20% higher than it should be but maybe thats just because the homes I want are that far out of my budget

 

[Havasu blue label]

The housing market seems odd to me at this point. My wife and I are looking anywhere from La Habra Heights to Norco and everything in between. There has definitely been a big increase in listings in the last two months. But it seems like the homes either sell in a day or are listed on there for a month with no movement. It seems like pricing has finally settled and its not insane asking prices. Also seeing some price decreases. I still believe the market is 10-20% higher than it should be but maybe thats just because the homes I want are that far out of my budget

Go into friendly hills next street over from Lahabra heights it’s on carmina

 

[JL95]

The villa park area is nice if I had budget and needed to be out that way I’d look that direction

 

[BHC Vic]

My brother wants to get to Norco. Basically takes a million dollars now a days

 

[regor]

Keep in mind that this is for sales, not prices. Sales have been down for some time as people are handcuffed by 3% interest rates. If rates do not go below 5%, I believe this will be the new norm.

I do realize that. Prices continue to rise due to inflationary pressures and availability.

I said awhile ago that we would see who the real realtors are and they're thinning the herd.

 

[530RL]

Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is...

www.bea.gov

 

[Racey]

Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is...

www.bea.gov

Lol the "advance" estimate.... This never ever drops when they quietly release the "revised" numbers covering for their political leash holders

 

[530RL]

Lol the "advance" estimate.... This never ever drops when they quietly release the "revised" numbers covering for their political leash holders

That is statistically analyzed here.

https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2021/01-january/pdf/0121-revisions-to-gdp-gdi.pdf

"As we will show in the following sections, both the pattern and the magnitude of the revisions indicate that the early estimates are reliable. That is, the revisions do not substantively change BEA's measures of long-term growth, the picture of business cycles, and the trends in major components of GDP and GDI. In short, the early estimates provide a consistent and reliable picture of general economic activity. Given the general accuracy of the early estimates, policymakers should be able to rely on these estimates as accurate measures of economic activity."

 

[AiiRaciing]

I moved out to the 91/15 in Corona, and looking back I wish I had spent another 250k and got a horse ranch in Norco. I could have easily had an acre and 1-2000 sq. ft shop if I’d just looked at Norco a little closer

 

[Todd Mohr]

530, do you think the economic indicators are because of the current administration or the results are in spite of the current policies and could be much better
with a the policies Trump enacted during his 1st term?

 

[rivrrts429]

That is statistically analyzed here.

https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2021/01-january/pdf/0121-revisions-to-gdp-gdi.pdf

"As we will show in the following sections, both the pattern and the magnitude of the revisions indicate that the early estimates are reliable. That is, the revisions do not substantively change BEA's measures of long-term growth, the picture of business cycles, and the trends in major components of GDP and GDI. In short, the early estimates provide a consistent and reliable picture of general economic activity. Given the general accuracy of the early estimates, policymakers should be able to rely on these estimates as accurate measures of economic activity."

View attachment 1445183

They used the word “estimate” three times in four sentences

 

[530RL]

530, do you think the economic indicators are because of the current administration or the results are in spite of the current policies and could be much better
with a the policies Trump enacted during his 1st term?

That's a topic for the P&G section and I think we should respect the owner's request to keep politics in that section as much as possible.

My post was simply the latest BEA data.

People are free to do with it as they wish.

 

[rivrrts429]

That's a topic for the P&G section and I think we should respect the owner's request to keep politics in that section as much as possible.

My post was simply the latest BEA data.

People are free to do with it as they wish.

He’ll delete the post or move the thread. He’s the guy pulling the levers.

 

[regor]

Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is...

www.bea.gov

 

[530RL]

Is the crash still coming?

Or have opinions now changed?

 

[BHC Vic]

Is the crash still coming?

Or have opinions now changed?

That’s a good question. I think we see free money again personally

 

[HTMike]

Is the crash still coming?

Or have opinions now changed?

No crash. I think we will see a blip and then back up even higher.

 

[mesquito_creek]

Is the crash still coming?

Or have opinions now changed?

And now that Trump is president elect do we want our homes and other property to loose value, gain value or flatline?

 

[NicPaus]

Is the crash still coming?

Or have opinions now changed?

I just finished one in PV. Rehab to sell. Owner passed. My Realtor should have it listed by this weekend. See how it goes.

Every listing She has had lately sells in 2 weeks or less. Only 1 did not and it was great deal for the neighborhood. Problem was it needed $250K in updates. So with 20% down payment you would of needed $500k to get in. 6 investors made offers and it went for cash 1 week close no contingency but sold for 132k under listing. Listed at $1000 sq ft.


Anything under a million here is gone in under 2 weeks. The 2 mill plus market is slower.

I have been slammed with work. Debating on another new work rig to expand. It's so hard to judge the market. But last time Trump was in. I passed up more jobs than I did. As I couldn't get to them in a timely manner.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Trump has inherited a shitty debt situation. He has a ton of work to do to bring it back under control and tarrifs alone aren't going to fix it. We have to cut spending in a big way. Then we have to actually pay down huge amounts of principal.

The alternative is to go bk. Not sure what that would mean but it probably results in WWIIi.

 

[attitude]

There will still be a correction. Every issue in the economy the democrats have been trying to hide until the election will be coming into the light now.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Fed reduced rates by another .25 today. Bond market is down .076 to 4.194 on the 2 year after rising from 3.619 after the fed cut .5 in September. Inflation isn't at target and jobs reports are not showing weakening like the fed needs to reduce inflation more.

Everyone applauds 2% inflation as a good target y over y. The problem with that is is that prices went up 15% the year before and chasing an elusive 2% inflation number year after year means that actual prices of goods are now 20-25% higher than they were 4 years ago and continuing to rise.

Year over year numbers look great until you pick a specific point in time pre COVID and compare prices now.

 

[DRYHEAT]

Trump has inherited a shitty debt situation. He has a ton of work to do to bring it back under control and tarrifs alone aren't going to fix it. We have to cut spending in a big way. Then we have to actually pay down huge amounts of principal.

The alternative is to go bk. Not sure what that would mean but it probably results in WWIIi.

When they do that, are they going to claw back the paid off student loans?

 

[prorider]

Trump has inherited a shitty debt situation. He has a ton of work to do to bring it back under control and tarrifs alone aren't going to fix it. We have to cut spending in a big way. Then we have to actually pay down huge amounts of principal.

The alternative is to go bk. Not sure what that would mean but it probably results in WWIIi.

To be fair ,Trump is responsible for a Huge part of that debt. He is a big spender. Hopefully he can change.

 

[Paradox]

I am sooo hoping that he drops federal income tax on Social Security. My wife and I have maxed out payments into the system for more than 35 years. As a result, this would have a significant impact on our retirement years..

 

[PlanB]

I am sooo hoping that he drops federal income tax on Social Security. My wife and I have maxed out payments into the system for more than 35 years. As a result, this would have a significant impact on our retirement years..

According to some "experts" on the news this morning, he would need 60 votes in the senate. Maybe he can get it with the new majority and a handful of dems.

 

[thetub]

To be fair ,Trump is responsible for a Huge part of that debt. He is a big spender. Hopefully he can change.

yes but large part of it was the China WHUHAN LAB released covid virus which was purposely done ( not proven like everything else but anyone with half a brain and common sense knows it was). Caused him to shut down the economy/US and (again surrounded by liars FAUCCI who lied through their teeth about it)
which in turn he paid people vouchers and PP loans. i dont agree with it but it was done and if he didnt they would have ridiculed him ...

again moot point as the Whuhan virus should have not been released in first place .... (which was done by design)

 

[DWC]

yes but large part of it was the China WHUHAN LAB released covid virus which was purposely done ( not proven like everything else but anyone with half a brain and common sense knows it was). Caused him to shut down the economy/US and (again surrounded by liars FAUCCI who lied through their teeth about it)
which in turn he paid people vouchers and PP loans. i dont agree with it but it was done and if he didnt they would have ridiculed him ...

again moot point as the Whuhan virus should have not been released in first place .... (which was done by design)

Don’t let facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

 

[attitude]

No bueno for KTM, Husky, and GasGas.

https://www.rideapart.com/news/742336/ktm-ag-insolvency-filing-stefan-pierer/

 

[Orange Juice]

No bueno for KTM, Husky, and GasGas.

https://www.rideapart.com/news/742336/ktm-ag-insolvency-filing-stefan-pierer/

That will shake the tree.

 

[regor]

Core PCE excluding housing rose at a 3.0 percent annualized pace, up from 2.9 percent. Core services excluding housing, a category that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has mentioned as worth watching for signals of underlying inflationary pressures, was up an annualized 4.4 percent, a big increase from the 3.6 percent a month earlier.

 

[Looking Glass]

Core PCE excluding housing rose at a 3.0 percent annualized pace, up from 2.9 percent. Core services excluding housing, a category that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has mentioned as worth watching for signals of underlying inflationary pressures, was up an annualized 4.4 percent, a big increase from the 3.6 percent a month earlier.

View attachment 1455009

As "BRANDON" would say, that is "COUNTERPRODUCTIVE"

 

[HNL2LHC]

As "BRANDON" would say, that is "COUNTERPRODUCTIVE"

Anyone update the list to include counter productive? By the way who has the updated list? I think mine only goes up to Wack-a-doodles. So it is outdated for sure.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 10.4%, Just Below Worst of Financial Crisis Meltdown. Fastest 2-Year Spike Ever | Wolf Street

As the cmbs meltdown continues bond markets will react and mortgage rates in other sectors will remain higher to counterbalance the losses. The fed can lower rates all they want making money cheaper for banks at the window. Unfortunately that isn't going to do shit for mortgage rates due to a shit securitization market.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

No bueno for KTM, Husky, and GasGas.

https://www.rideapart.com/news/742336/ktm-ag-insolvency-filing-stefan-pierer/

Wow, they just built a huge corporate facility in French Valley. Drive by it everyday.

 

[shintoooo]

Las Vegas market all time highs

Greater Las Vegas Home Sales Jump 15 Percent in November

A new report from Las Vegas Realtors reveals that local home prices neared an all-time high in November 2024, with increased sales activity and more properties available compared to the same time last year.

www.worldpropertyjournal.com