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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

PaPaG

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Back to business at hand and the topic of this thread.

"The whole housing sector is now in retreat," says Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson, noting the latest data shows multi-family starts have peaked after surging since early 2021 and reaching record levels under construction. Shepherdson predicts the downtrend in construction activity will continue to fall until early 2023, given that mortgage applications have plummeted 30% from a December peak and have yet to find a bottom.

KEY BACKGROUND​

Historically high savings rates and low interest rates helped ignite a home-buying frenzy during the pandemic, but the housing market has cooled after the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates this year. The latest data comes just one day after the National Association of Home Builders reported home builder confidence has fallen to the lowest level since May 2020 as ongoing growth in construction costs and high mortgage rates continue to weaken market sentiment. In a statement, NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said the market has entered a "housing recession,” and predicted that single-family housing starts will decline in 2022 for the first time since 2011.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR​

There's still more housing data set to be released this week. On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors will report data on existing home sales from last month. On average, economists predict annualized sales fell about 6% to 5.1 million.
 

PaPaG

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I’ve got you spinning in 2 threads now just trying to keep up. 👍🏻
Looks like you are the one that cannot stop spinning in this thread, what goes around comes around....thicken your skin and you will see you don't have to post in every thread lol lol
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Looks like you are the one that cannot stop spinning in this thread, what goes around comes around....thicken your skin and you will see you don't have to post in every thread lol lol

Pot meet kettle. Can we call the lid on the pot a hat?
 

NicPaus

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Not yet! Lets see what happens 8/20/22-10/20/22
Local city plan check is still months behind. We have jobs lined up through next year. Yeah it has slowed down. But not stopped like 2010. It will take a few years for all the projects to get approved and finished.

Houses are still selling here. Just not for stupid prices that nobody can afford. KB homes is a track builder in the 909-951 and 750k homes in those areas are not affordable. So we cannot base our local real estate market on what they say.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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And we are driving our speed cars with our great investments making money lol lol lol
I love how this community delivers. Thanks for proving my point so quickly and accurately.
 

PaPaG

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Looks to me like papaG and LOF are going round and round like DILLIGAF and LOF. Gets really old. Yes I don't have to read, but looking for info in these threads. Maybe RD needs to give a time out.
I am trying to post facts, data and info on the current issues regarding real estate. I just went tit for tat with Mr. Know it All and got carried away and I agree with that this is getting old...lets see if we can keep this factual and accurate.
 

Sportin' Wood

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KB homes is a track builder in the 909-951 and 750k homes in those areas are not affordable. So we cannot base our local real estate market on what they say.
I disagree. They are a publically traded company; they have to protect shareholder value. It's a decent data point no matter the local market conditions.



KB Home is a homebuilding company based in the United States, founded in 1957 as Kaufman & Broad in Detroit, Michigan. It was the first company to be traded on the NYSE as a home builder and was a Fortune 500 company from 2000 through 2008. Its headquarters are in Los Angeles, California. Wikipedia
Stock price: KBH (NYSE) $33.10 +0.11 (+0.33%)
Aug 16, 11:51 AM EDT - Disclaimer
Headquarters: Los Angeles, CA
CEO: Jeffrey T. Mezger (Nov 2006–)
Sales: 1 (888) 524-6637

Revenue: 4.55 billion USD (2019)
Founded: 1957, Detroit, MI
Founders: Eli Broad, Donald Bruce Kaufman
Subsidiaries: KB HOME Insurance Agency Inc., MORE
 

bentprops

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Lane change to God bringing the real estate collapse? Now we’re talking.
The powers that be are all satanist. biden polowski, world economic forum, trump, vatican, ect. Spend some time looking into it and its easy to see. ill share a few. Whether you belive in the stuff or not they do. They like to play word and number games.
Heard of The Great Reset? re=King, set= satan as in, the great king satan.
re=king set=satan
Corona = 66 ,6 letters, 666/2020=30330.

build back better, bbb,666,
6 min,6 days, 6 weeks
i beleive this worked out to nov 18 with the real id that bill gates has been working on.
real id

By the way, bill gates named his son’s name is Rory John Gates. The Ascii strings “RORY” and “GATES” united with the unit separator character, which has the Ascii code of 31 (but which would not appear between RORY and JOHN when printed, since it separates the First name from the Middle name) also have the value of 666.

“Ivanka has been included in Fortune magazine’s prestigious “40 Under 40” list (2014) and was honored as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum (2015).”


Trump Jesuit schooling,

Biden Jesuit education
 

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CarolynandBob

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I am trying to post facts, data and info on the current issues regarding real estate. I just went tit for tat with Mr. Know it All and got carried away and I agree with that this is getting old...lets see if we can keep this factual and accurate.

Thank you
 

NicPaus

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I disagree. They are a publically traded company; they have to protect shareholder value. It's a decent data point no matter the local market conditions.



To get a general idea of housing market I could see. But not local markets current conditions. I always see the track builds on my drive to the river. The market out there will fall fast compared to our local market. Plenty of land to build more. Was in Temecula this past weekend and track homes going up like crazy. There is no lots here to build track homes. It's built out. Market here will come down but not plummet like out there.
 

RVR SWPR

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How accurate are all these monthly reports?

“WHAT TO WATCH FOR”​

“There's still more housing data set to be released this week. On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors will report data on existing home sales from last month. On average, economists predict annualized sales fell about 6% to 5.1 million.”
 

Englewood

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Everyone keeps showing "Sales" stats. "Sales" is how many actual units have closed (i.e. activity). When you see pricing following that trend, its time to get ready.

I'm looking at Havasu lots for long term rentals. Sellers will start getting hungry due to lack of activity.
 

Havasu blue label

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It’s a hobby to me the next purchases will be for my grandkids . And yes the cities still are out 1 year just for approvals old news old contracts
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I am trying to post facts, data and info on the current issues regarding real estate. I just went tit for tat with Mr. Know it All and got carried away and I agree with that this is getting old...lets see if we can keep this factual and
Everyone keeps showing "Sales" stats. "Sales" is how many actual units have closed (i.e. activity). When you see pricing following that trend, its time to get ready.

I'm looking at Havasu lots for long term rentals. Sellers will start getting hungry due to lack of activity.

Yep. When multi family LTRs make sense again, I’ll be in.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Everyone keeps showing "Sales" stats. "Sales" is how many actual units have closed (i.e. activity). When you see pricing following that trend, its time to get ready.

I'm looking at Havasu lots for long term rentals. Sellers will start getting hungry due to lack of activity.
Yep. It is a waste of time tracking this day by day, layoff by layoff, transaction by transaction.

When multi tenant LTR units make sense again I’ll be in. We are a ways out from that.
 

badgas

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I am trying to post facts, data and info on the current issues regarding real estate.
I haven't heard any facts discussed around this portion of the topic.

The 2008 housing crisis was created by an artificial run-up in prices that happened because millions and millions of people were loaned money they did not qualify for nor could they make the actual principle and interest payments so the whole thing collapsed like a house of cards.

The last run up that we've seen in the past 3 years was based on low inventory incredibly low interest rates that were not realistic but hey why not take advantage of a super low fixed rate 30-year mortgage where your payment is much less than your rent would be if you tried to step out of your home.

This time around you actually had to verify income and that you were creditworthy and that you were employed etc. the same metrics that they used forever when underwriting mortgages but those were skirted and ignored running up to 2008


Do you think this is a factor this time around or do you just ignore the structure of the loans that are underneath this current housing market ?

I'm just curious because all the charts in the world don't show that this is an absolute contrast and that this one piece is totally different than what happened during the great recession.
 

Havasu blue label

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That’s why it will be like 2007 cash out and you can buy a second home because you qualify and low interest rates . No charts needed just basic math
 

LargeOrangeFont

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OldSchoolBoats

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I haven't heard any facts discussed around this portion of the topic.

The 2008 housing crisis was created by an artificial run-up in prices that happened because millions and millions of people were loaned money they did not qualify for nor could they make the actual principle and interest payments so the whole thing collapsed like a house of cards.

The last run up that we've seen in the past 3 years was based on low inventory incredibly low interest rates that were not realistic but hey why not take advantage of a super low fixed rate 30-year mortgage where your payment is much less than your rent would be if you tried to step out of your home.

This time around you actually had to verify income and that you were creditworthy and that you were employed etc. the same metrics that they used forever when underwriting mortgages but those were skirted and ignored running up to 2008


Do you think this is a factor this time around or do you just ignore the structure of the loans that are underneath this current housing market ?

I'm just curious because all the charts in the world don't show that this is an absolute contrast and that this one piece is totally different than what happened during the great recession.
I have said this until blue in the face.
 

Cdog

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rivermobster

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I am trying to post facts, data and info on the current issues regarding real estate. I just went tit for tat with Mr. Know it All and got carried away and I agree with that this is getting old...lets see if we can keep this factual and accurate.

The problem is your facts don't tell the whole story.

It's like people who quote the bible out of context...

Is their quote accurate? Yes. Does it represent the story being told? Nope. It's just a tiny slice of the whole pie.

This is the same situation with the facts you are presenting.

KB homes is not representative of the general housing market. They sell/build new TRACK homes. Tiny yards. Houses so close to each other you can hear your neighbor fart. Big fat HOA fees. No RV or boat parking. Not a whole lot of normal folks wanna live like that. 👎

So what They have to say means nothing compared to an area like east Norco, where you can't buy anything less than one acre and most everyone there has horses in their HUGE backyards.

So yeah, your stating facts, but they don't mean a whole lot when you consider the overall picture.

So just so we all know...

What is the point you are trying to make - exactly? I can't be the only one reading this thread that's wondering?

🤷‍♂️
 

LargeOrangeFont

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The problem is your facts don't tell the whole story.

It's like people who quote the bible out of context...

Is their quote accurate? Yes. Does it represent the story being told? Nope. It's just a tiny slice of the whole pie.

This is the same situation with the facts you are presenting.

KB homes is not representative of the general housing market. They sell/build new TRACK homes. Tiny yards. Houses so close to each other you can hear your neighbor fart. Big fat HOA fees. No RV or boat parking. Not a whole lot of normal folks wanna live like that. 👎

So what They have to say means nothing compared to an area like east Norco, where you can't buy anything less than one acre and most everyone there has horses in their HUGE backyards.

So yeah, your stating facts, but they don't mean a whole lot when you consider the overall picture.

So just so we all know...

What is the point you are trying to make - exactly? I can't be the only one reading this thread that's wondering?

🤷‍♂️

It’s FACTS. You need to capitalize every letter of the word. And type one handed while holding your hat.
 

PaPaG

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It is my job. That's what I have done my whole life. My Fiance does the same. Not a hobby as it's not always fun.
Not always fun that is for sure but in the end
The problem is your facts don't tell the whole story.

It's like people who quote the bible out of context...

Is their quote accurate? Yes. Does it represent the story being told? Nope. It's just a tiny slice of the whole pie.

This is the same situation with the facts you are presenting.

KB homes is not representative of the general housing market. They sell/build new TRACK homes. Tiny yards. Houses so close to each other you can hear your neighbor fart. Big fat HOA fees. No RV or boat parking. Not a whole lot of normal folks wanna live like that. 👎

So what They have to say means nothing compared to an area like east Norco, where you can't buy anything less than one acre and most everyone there has horses in their HUGE backyards.

So yeah, your stating facts, but they don't mean a whole lot when you consider the overall picture.

So just so we all know...

What is the point you are trying to make - exactly? I can't be the only one reading this thread that's wondering?

🤷‍♂️
The facts I am posting are bits and pieces of everything going on that I read, watch and research including information with lots of family and friends in the business. If I miss posting some of the facts and information I think that can be expected due to the amount of information out there, but the fact that the market is correcting slowing but surly is 100% accurate according to all the data from the stock market regarding real estate's future to every single real estate reporting agency in the US and actually around the globe.

I try researching and verifying everything I post and I like to post the updates, no single post will include everything going on in the market but if you keep up to date on as many aspects as possible it will keep most informed to at least a certain degree to make wise decisions.

KB is just one out of maybe four or five dozen entities related to housing, there are many other providers of info I get this info from.
As for my Exact Point (or most of it) Signs and warnings that the housing market is slowly but surely correcting, a lot of ridiculous asking prices are being lowered. In a lot of active areas homes taking a little longer to close and multiple offers are decreasing at a quick pace, soon home prices will be lower especially as the fed increases once again in Sept. Thinking that folks on this site may be interested in some info I believe to be true that want to buy a primary home or a vacation home would be interested in the data and trends, that is basically the point of my post.

Will I invest again when I feel the market is at it's low point in value once the Fed increases again and the home prices and sales catch up down the road with the increases, YES for sure. Here is the funny part, I can positively guarantee ANYONE who wants to buy a home or invest in the market even the naysayers on here would like to get the best price for a home, vacation home or market investment, and for some of the folks that say they would not want a great price I would call them liars to their face. That's about it.
 

monkeyswrench

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Related to housing, but not really the theme of this thread...
I've done some tract work(it sucks, but you get really fast) and done work for guys building "spec homes". The spec builders are fronting the money. Tract builders are doing the same, but on mass scale.
Do tract builders have the assets to "own" the homes, or are they leveraged heavily? Are they dependent on the stock market (share value/perceived value) or are they dependent upon a bank?

All I ever cared about was my check clearing, never cared how they did it...
 

PaPaG

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Looks like a monsoon under that raincloud you live under. 12” of sunshine here and 79 degree water.
You just can't resist responding to everything posted can you Mr. Know it All can you. lol lol lol
PS: Right now it is 89 on the river with clouds and forcast of rain, after all it is monsoon season lol lol...
 

rivermobster

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Not always fun that is for sure but in the end

The facts I am posting are bits and pieces of everything going on that I read, watch and research including information with lots of family and friends in the business. If I miss posting some of the facts and information I think that can be expected due to the amount of information out there, but the fact that the market is correcting slowing but surly is 100% accurate according to all the data from the stock market regarding real estate's future to every single real estate reporting agency in the US and actually around the globe.

I try researching and verifying everything I post and I like to post the updates, no single post will include everything going on in the market but if you keep up to date on as many aspects as possible it will keep most informed to at least a certain degree to make wise decisions.

KB is just one out of maybe four or five dozen entities related to housing, there are many other providers of info I get this info from.
As for my Exact Point (or most of it) Signs and warnings that the housing market is slowly but surely correcting, a lot of ridiculous asking prices are being lowered. In a lot of active areas homes taking a little longer to close and multiple offers are decreasing at a quick pace, soon home prices will be lower especially as the fed increases once again in Sept. Thinking that folks on this site may be interested in some info I believe to be true that want to buy a primary home or a vacation home would be interested in the data and trends, that is basically the point of my post.

Will I invest again when I feel the market is at it's low point in value once the Fed increases again and the home prices and sales catch up down the road with the increases, YES for sure. Here is the funny part, I can positively guarantee ANYONE who wants to buy a home or invest in the market even the naysayers on here would like to get the best price for a home, vacation home or market investment, and for some of the folks that say they would not want a great price I would call them liars to their face. That's about it.

Good on you for trying to help people out.

But since every city and town across the USofA has it's own "trends", it's probably best to find out where someone wants to buy or sell before offering tiny bits of advice?

I've been doing homework on LOTS of different areas lately. From Deluz in Fallbrook, to up around the Snake River in Idaho.

Can you say night and day?

You can't make blanket statements that would come close to applying to either of these locations.

Unsolicited advice and random predictions never seem to go over too well. At least not around this crowd anyway...

Peace.
 

PaPaG

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Good on you for trying to help people out.

But since every city and town across the USofA has it's own "trends", it's probably best to find out where someone wants to buy or sell before offering tiny bits of advice?

I've been doing homework on LOTS of different areas lately. From Deluz in Fallbrook, to up around the Snake River in Idaho.

Can you say night and day?

You can't make blanket statements that would come close to applying to either of these locations.

Unsolicited advice and random predictions never seem to go over too well. At least not around this crowd anyway...

Peace.
Not sure if you follow the stock market but almost every entity interviewed state that most of the US real estate market is going to be effected, some not right now but when the interest rates and hikes catch up they surely will. Covid changed the typical direction trends to some degree but when the economy is hit with 2x or 3x interest rates I think everyone everywhere but the wealthy that wants to invest in some real estate will be probably effected.
 

Sportin' Wood

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Related to housing, but not really the theme of this thread...
I've done some tract work(it sucks, but you get really fast) and done work for guys building "spec homes". The spec builders are fronting the money. Tract builders are doing the same, but on mass scale.
Do tract builders have the assets to "own" the homes, or are they leveraged heavily? Are they dependent on the stock market (share value/perceived value) or are they dependent upon a bank?

All I ever cared about was my check clearing, never cared how they did it...
I used to own a SoCa Production Plumbing company pre-2008. I have some experience with this topic, but my experience could be different than the next person. I think this is a good question. I will share my thoughts, but disclaimer, this was my experience.

There is a difference between public companies and private, but not much. They are ALL fawkers IMHO. Risk mitigation is the rule of the day. Most tracts are set up as individual LLC's to help mitigate that risk. They use a lot of leverage to build these tracts, but the most underhanded is the use of Sub Contractors. The Subs basically finance the material and labor for each trade. The builder can manipulate the payment terms to make the Sub carry that liability for quite a while.

Example:
Plumbing C36 gets three draws and likely retention of some type for a period after the final inspection. I normally tried to front load my first draw.
Draw #1 Following underground. Let's call the date Sept 1st.
I paid to dig the trenches, buy the material, design the whole job, prefab the waste piping, deliver and storage, labor, insurance, and overhead. I got the contract, normally the day the job starts, and I am off to the races after the foundations are dug. Let's say this is phase 1 12 houses, of 125 house and 10 phases.
Let's say I get those underground six days after I start. Let's call it three weeks since I got a contract. Maybe a week for inspections and water service/sewer tie-ins. We work weekends with overtime because we are busy; we'll call today's date Sept 20th. (That date is important)

I can now submit my bill for the first draw with any lean releases.

The corporate billing cycle is such that they process payments submitted before the 15th on the following 15th with payment by the 30th. So I could not bill until the 20th of Sept, providing I get my lean releases taken care of. This means I won't see payment until Oct 30th at best. I started this project on Sept 1st. Let's call it 60 days I just financed the builder, but wait, it gets better. If anything is not done perfectly with your billing, you are asked to correct it sometime between the 15th and the 30th if you are lucky. Likely you won't know that you have a problem until your payment does not show up, pushing you back another 45 days.

They used to do that shit to me non-stop. Now spread that circus across multiple draws, phases, and tracts. I was chasing money as a full-time job. Now expand that across multiple trades. Don't get me started on back charges and retentions.

KB homes, for example, is a $4B a year company. They are just one of many. These people are printing money from the backs of sub-contractors, who most often are tradesmen who worked their way out of a ditch and into a half-decent pickup truck.

I can assure you that an economic slowdown does not hurt them. They just take a break from the action and work out a plan for the next cycle. Even the smaller builders don't get hurt. A guy I used to work for out of Canyon Lake has a badass waterfront pad at Islander, and he does not even remember my face or name as a guy he fawked the hell out of 25 years ago. I was just a pawn on his chess board.

They are masters of finance and high-stakes gamblers. If those tracts don't sell, it is not likely they will lose much, if anything, but someone will.
 

Sportin' Wood

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The 2008 housing crisis was created by an artificial run-up in prices that happened because millions and millions of people were loaned money they did not qualify for nor could they make the actual principle and interest payments so the whole thing collapsed like a house of cards.

The last run up that we've seen in the past 3 years was based on low inventory incredibly low interest rates that were not realistic but hey why not take advantage of a super low fixed rate 30-year mortgage where your payment is much less than your rent would be if you tried to step out of your home.

This time around you actually had to verify income and that you were creditworthy and that you were employed etc. the same metrics that they used forever when underwriting mortgages but those were skirted and ignored running up to 2008


Do you think this is a factor this time around or do you just ignore the structure of the loans that are underneath this current housing market ?

I'm just curious because all the charts in the world don't show that this is an absolute contrast and that this one piece is totally different than what happened during the great recession.

I think this is a good question. You make a good point about being different than 2008, but are you missing what is the same?

The 2008 housing crisis was created by an artificial run-up in prices that happened because millions and millions of people were loaned money they did not qualify for nor could they make the actual principle and interest payments so the whole thing collapsed like a house of cards.

An artificial run-up of pricing fueled by an injection of liquidity? I tend to agree with you.

The last run up that we've seen in the past 3 years was based on low inventory incredibly low interest rates that were not realistic but hey why not take advantage of a super low fixed rate 30-year mortgage where your payment is much less than your rent would be if you tried to step out of your home.

An artificial run-up of pricing fueled by an injection of liquidity?

I agree that the risky variable mortgages of 2008 played an important role in that housing crash. I'm not confident we will see the same type of crash, but I am looking for patterns to help me make educated decisions.

I should be clear I am looking at markets in vacation areas, not the suburbs. I think we have some of the same types of behavior patterns when you factor in the STR market. Cheap money with positive cash flow. If the STR market propped up some of these gains and the bottom falls out, I don't care if they have a cheap mortgage if they don't have the cash flow to cover it. The costs associated with STRs have been going up, and for the moment, the demand seems to be decreasing, with local regulations against them creeping up. It was fun while it lasted.

As recently as last week, I heard a friend talk about doing a refinance on a home to pull more cash out. I think more people than we care to admit have an obsession with using home equity to create a lifestyle. If the value starts to drop, people tend to think small and not put as much value on the low-interest rate they have. I think way too much credit is given to people understanding how valuable those rates are, and in six years, most of them will have been traded for something less desirable.

I've asked before, What is a crash anyway? I will be pleased to see 2019 prices and would not call that a crash. At least in the market, I am shopping.
 
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