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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

CLdrinker

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See that little red arrow? The sky is falling!!
 
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PaPaG

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You said in 50% in 90 days, 45 days ago. Still sticking with that?



It’s unfortunate you turned your back on Carolynandbob so quickly and let me get to you 2 days in a row.
I tried but when your obsessiveness with me and my posts would not stop I decided a response is mandatory since I won't back down to your MKA upchucks.
PS and its a hell of a lot of fun getting your goat lol
 

monkeyswrench

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I'm no "Nostradumbass"...and I don't know the depth things will fall to...but I have a bad feeling.
I'm not a wealthy person. Unlike a lot here, I can currently give two shits about money. I chased paper with the best of them, sold my soul and wrecked my body. My goals are fairly simple: Family safe and provided for.
People worried about the chance to invest, make or lose money, are failing to see the broader scope of the events in our world. For the investment types, I believe there are "farm futures", or something to that effect? Look at grocery store revenues, or the average American credit card debt.
Before worrying about the next big investment opportunity, make sure your own house is in order. Money in investments and the banks does no good to your children or grandchildren. Looks great on paper, but won't feed a crying child.
Those worried solely about the housing market, will be caught off guard. That bright and shiny jewel, or one of several in the crown, can lose it's luster if things continue the way they are...

...but I'm just a redneck, out in the sticks.
 

PaPaG

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I'm no "Nostradumbass"...and I don't know the depth things will fall to...but I have a bad feeling.
I'm not a wealthy person. Unlike a lot here, I can currently give two shits about money. I chased paper with the best of them, sold my soul and wrecked my body. My goals are fairly simple: Family safe and provided for.
People worried about the chance to invest, make or lose money, are failing to see the broader scope of the events in our world. For the investment types, I believe there are "farm futures", or something to that effect? Look at grocery store revenues, or the average American credit card debt.
Before worrying about the next big investment opportunity, make sure your own house is in order. Money in investments and the banks does no good to your children or grandchildren. Looks great on paper, but won't feed a crying child.
Those worried solely about the housing market, will be caught off guard. That bright and shiny jewel, or one of several in the crown, can lose it's luster if things continue the way they are...

...but I'm just a redneck, out in the sticks.
And you have some great opinions, outlook and views on life.
 

DC-88

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80690831-D02A-4DB9-8A81-32497148B914.jpeg
The river N of Topock was deserted the last 5 days, like mid week 1980’s crowd level way before Labor Day with almost zero plow boats. May be an indication of hat holding … or not but it sure is nice
 

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PaPaG

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View attachment 1146801 The river N of Topock was deserted the last 5 days, like mid week 1980’s crowd level way before Labor Day with almost zero plow boats. May be an indication of hat holding … or not but it sure is nice
Did you notice any mucky water? we went swimming on Monday and Tuesday above the needles bridge and noticed a lot of discolored water flowing down mid river due to the storms, wonder how far it got before really diluting. Positively the best time of the year to go boating once the kiddos go back too school.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Whenever PapaG posts, I am holding onto my hat super tight, then LOF says something and I let go of it, hold on, let go, hold on, let go....I am getting tired here guys, I think I am just going to take my hat off...lol

There was never a reason to hold it in the first place :)
 

77charger

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I used to own a SoCa Production Plumbing company pre-2008. I have some experience with this topic, but my experience could be different than the next person. I think this is a good question. I will share my thoughts, but disclaimer, this was my experience.

There is a difference between public companies and private, but not much. They are ALL fawkers IMHO. Risk mitigation is the rule of the day. Most tracts are set up as individual LLC's to help mitigate that risk. They use a lot of leverage to build these tracts, but the most underhanded is the use of Sub Contractors. The Subs basically finance the material and labor for each trade. The builder can manipulate the payment terms to make the Sub carry that liability for quite a while.

Example:
Plumbing C36 gets three draws and likely retention of some type for a period after the final inspection. I normally tried to front load my first draw.
Draw #1 Following underground. Let's call the date Sept 1st.
I paid to dig the trenches, buy the material, design the whole job, prefab the waste piping, deliver and storage, labor, insurance, and overhead. I got the contract, normally the day the job starts, and I am off to the races after the foundations are dug. Let's say this is phase 1 12 houses, of 125 house and 10 phases.
Let's say I get those underground six days after I start. Let's call it three weeks since I got a contract. Maybe a week for inspections and water service/sewer tie-ins. We work weekends with overtime because we are busy; we'll call today's date Sept 20th. (That date is important)

I can now submit my bill for the first draw with any lean releases.

The corporate billing cycle is such that they process payments submitted before the 15th on the following 15th with payment by the 30th. So I could not bill until the 20th of Sept, providing I get my lean releases taken care of. This means I won't see payment until Oct 30th at best. I started this project on Sept 1st. Let's call it 60 days I just financed the builder, but wait, it gets better. If anything is not done perfectly with your billing, you are asked to correct it sometime between the 15th and the 30th if you are lucky. Likely you won't know that you have a problem until your payment does not show up, pushing you back another 45 days.

They used to do that shit to me non-stop. Now spread that circus across multiple draws, phases, and tracts. I was chasing money as a full-time job. Now expand that across multiple trades. Don't get me started on back charges and retentions.

KB homes, for example, is a $4B a year company. They are just one of many. These people are printing money from the backs of sub-contractors, who most often are tradesmen who worked their way out of a ditch and into a half-decent pickup truck.

I can assure you that an economic slowdown does not hurt them. They just take a break from the action and work out a plan for the next cycle. Even the smaller builders don't get hurt. A guy I used to work for out of Canyon Lake has a badass waterfront pad at Islander, and he does not even remember my face or name as a guy he fawked the hell out of 25 years ago. I was just a pawn on his chess board.

They are masters of finance and high-stakes gamblers. If those tracts don't sell, it is not likely they will lose much, if anything, but someone will.
Don’t forget if pricing increases for material or housing slows down as does home prices the builders want the subs to “adjust their prices” so that they still make the same profit at the cost of the subs. Lennar was doing this in so cal years ago.

If subs didn’t do so they weren’t allowed to bid on future jobs.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Seems to always be one common denominator….🤷‍♂️

Yep. That is always the person in the mirror if someone thinks it is my fault they can't enjoy RDP.

To them I say hit the ignore button.. but their egos won't let them.
 
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PaPaG

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Wrote 2 offers on lots in Havasu Yesterday.

Both are 169k. I offered 130k (5-day close).

Lowest response was 150k. Seller's are not desperate yet.
YET, they will be soon.
 
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Havasu blue label

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I have one in at the Rivera will see next stop the island most properties where bought by realtors so that money is gone they will start dumping them .
 

RiverDave

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Wrote 2 offers on lots in Havasu Yesterday.

Both are 169k. I offered 130k (5-day close).

Lowest response was 150k. Seller's are not desperate yet.
YET, they will be soon.

You know I sure thought the same thing, and my overall outlook (privately) was probably more grim than anyones on here. I moved here in 2011 and I remember what the housing market was like here as a buyer. I was a predator in a sea of prey, and it was easy Pickens.


Now I want to point something out to @angiebaby @PaPaG, and many others before I circle around to what I have to say. I have read many many times in this thread and others that the people relative to the "RE Industry" (without exception) have posted on here or claimed time and time again that the worlds full of rainbows as the sky is falling around us.. Everything is gonna be just fine, and post up some abstract #'s that paint a rosy outlook, while others see the shades of red as the blood of homeowners.


I own a real estate team, along side my wife. Without sounding arrogant, but rather humbled, because a large portion of that business comes from this very website.. We do a very large amount of RE business in Lake Havasu. Last year was about 91 Million the bulk of which was in LHC.

This thread is kind of all over the board, but it does seem (for some reason) that people are equating the Havasu market with the entire country.. (Which is absolutely crazy to me, because this market has been under extreme extenuating circumstances sense covid)

Never once, have you seen me say on here "Things are going to be just fine!! C'mon out and buy a house!" You haven't seen anyone on TRDP (to my knowledge) come on here and say something asinine like that. If your RE Agent is telling you shit like that, or your lender they aren't working for you, they are working for themselves.

It isn't the job of an RE agent or anyone in the RE Fields to be a Financial Advisor, or Financial Planner. The only job of an RE Agent is to Market the house (show the qualities of the house to as many people as possible) and try to get the most money for it, or inversely to find a property that is suitable for the client and negotiate the best possible deal for your client. In both directions to make sure that the client doesn't fall into the thousands of potential pitfalls (legal and otherwise) that come along with Real Estate transactions. (Which could be a thread all it's own)


To get to the point of what I was going to say.. Yes we have been getting a ton of listings lately (indicating a shift towards a buyers market). Right about the time I would think (privately) the sky is gonna fall!!

A bunch of buyers in a flurry come online. LOL.. Which is all the phone calls THIS WEEK of people now again wanting to spend money in Lake Havasu. (In real time things are flip flopping day to day)

To watch these threads, is absolutely incredible. Seeing the reports brought up, and scouring the data.. Listening to some of the extremely educated opinions (in some cases over educated?) than watching guys like @DrunkenSailor come on here and make a post. (Is that even English? I think I'll just go sit in a corner and put my dunce hat on)

At the end of the day though, all that data, all that passion, all that typing... and I can't honestly say sitting where I'm sitting that not anyone of them has actually been "conclusively right."

Anyhow to reiterate the point more directly.. Not "every" RE person has been shouting from the rooftops that everything is gonna be roses. Strangely the ones doing a considerable amount of business remember the first day of RE school.. We aren't financial advisors.

RD
 
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Looking Glass

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Whenever PapaG posts, I am holding onto my hat super tight, then LOF says something and I let go of it, hold on, let go, hold on, let go....I am getting tired here guys, I think I am just going to take my hat off...lol

Joe Cocker, had a great tune "You can keep your Hat on":cool:
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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You know I sure thought the same thing, and my overall outlook (privately) was probably more grim than anyones on here. I moved here in 2011 and I remember what the housing market was like here as a buyer. I was a predator in a sea of prey, and it was easy Pickens.


Now I want to point something out to @angiebaby @PaPaG, and many others before I circle around to what I have to say. I have read many many times in this thread and others that the people relative to the "RE Industry" (without exception) have posted on here or claimed time and time again that the worlds full of rainbows as the sky is falling around us.. Everything is gonna be just fine, and post up some abstract #'s that paint a rosy outlook, while others see the shades of red as the blood of homeowners.


I own a real estate team, along side my wife. Without sounding arrogant, but rather humbled, because a large portion of that business comes from this very website.. We do a very large amount of RE business in Lake Havasu. Last year was about 91 Million the bulk of which was in LHC.

This thread is kind of all over the board, but it does seem (for some reason) that people are equating the Havasu market with the entire country.. (Which is absolutely crazy to me, because this market has been under extreme extenuating circumstances sense covid)

Never once, have you seen me say on here "Things are going to be just fine!! C'mon out and buy a house!" You haven't seen anyone on TRDP (to my knowledge) come on here and say something asinine like that. If your RE Agent is telling you shit like that, or your lender they aren't working for you, they are working for themselves.

It isn't the job of an RE agent or anyone in the RE Fields to be a Financial Advisor, or Financial Planner. The only job of an RE Agent is to Market the house (show the qualities of the house to as many people as possible) and try to get the most money for it, or inversely to find a property that is suitable for the client and negotiate the best possible deal for your client. In both directions to make sure that the client doesn't fall into the thousands of potential pitfalls (legal and otherwise) that come along with Real Estate transactions. (Which could be a thread all it's own)


To get to the point of what I was going to say.. Yes we have been getting a ton of listings lately (indicating a shift towards a buyers market). Right about the time I would think (privately) the sky is gonna fall!!

A bunch of buyers in a flurry come online. LOL.. Which is all the phone calls THIS WEEK of people now again wanting to spend money in Lake Havasu. (In real time things are flip flopping day to day)

To watch these threads, is absolutely incredible. Seeing the reports brought up, and scouring the data.. Listening to some of the extremely educated opinions (in some cases over educated?) than watching guys like @DrunkenSailor come on here and make a post. (Is that even English? I think I'll just go sit in a corner and put my dunce hat on)

At the end of the day though, all that data, all that passion, all that typing... and I can't honestly say sitting where I'm sitting that not anyone of them has actually been "conclusively right."

Anyhow to reiterate the point more directly.. Not "every" RE person has been shouting from the rooftops that everything is gonna be roses. Strangely the ones doing a considerable amount of business remember the first day of RE school.. We aren't financial advisors.

RD

Everyone has something to claim they were “right” about aside from the prognosticators that said the market will do X by Y date. Those people are always wrong.

It is a market, it changes constantly as you know. You are still seeing activity because people have not lost their ability to pay, and most people are smart enough to know the RE market only goes up in the medium to long term.

At the end of the day the market will keep moving until homebuyers and homeowners start loosing their jobs.

@Englewood said it best 6+ weeks ago. We are still in the first inning.

If one truly thinks there will be a pricing collapse in Havasu, they will need to keep waiting for it. People keep forgetting 2011 was 5 years after 2006, and today’s conditions have very different fundamentals than in the mid 2000s.
 

badgas

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Remember 2003 when 6% on a 30 year fixed was CRAZY LOW ?

Today 4.75%-5.5% is crazy high 😂

We need to forget 2.75%-3.5% loans those were a mistake that i'm sure we will never see again. Wipe them from your memory and look at these rates based on history.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Remember 2003 when 6% on a 30 year fixed was CRAZY LOW ?

Today 4.75%-5.5% is crazy high 😂

We need to forget 2.75%-3.5% loans those were a mistake that i'm sure we will never see again. Wipe them from your memory and look at these rates based on history.

And there are what 100 million MFers that bought houses from 09 to early 2021 sitting on sub 4% fixed low rates they don’t want to give up, even if they are leveraged, the payment is cheaper than any alternative and they still have equity in the property.
 

hallett21

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You know I sure thought the same thing, and my overall outlook (privately) was probably more grim than anyones on here. I moved here in 2011 and I remember what the housing market was like here as a buyer. I was a predator in a sea of prey, and it was easy Pickens.


Now I want to point something out to @angiebaby @PaPaG, and many others before I circle around to what I have to say. I have read many many times in this thread and others that the people relative to the "RE Industry" (without exception) have posted on here or claimed time and time again that the worlds full of rainbows as the sky is falling around us.. Everything is gonna be just fine, and post up some abstract #'s that paint a rosy outlook, while others see the shades of red as the blood of homeowners.


I own a real estate team, along side my wife. Without sounding arrogant, but rather humbled, because a large portion of that business comes from this very website.. We do a very large amount of RE business in Lake Havasu. Last year was about 91 Million the bulk of which was in LHC.

This thread is kind of all over the board, but it does seem (for some reason) that people are equating the Havasu market with the entire country.. (Which is absolutely crazy to me, because this market has been under extreme extenuating circumstances sense covid)

Never once, have you seen me say on here "Things are going to be just fine!! C'mon out and buy a house!" You haven't seen anyone on TRDP (to my knowledge) come on here and say something asinine like that. If your RE Agent is telling you shit like that, or your lender they aren't working for you, they are working for themselves.

It isn't the job of an RE agent or anyone in the RE Fields to be a Financial Advisor, or Financial Planner. The only job of an RE Agent is to Market the house (show the qualities of the house to as many people as possible) and try to get the most money for it, or inversely to find a property that is suitable for the client and negotiate the best possible deal for your client. In both directions to make sure that the client doesn't fall into the thousands of potential pitfalls (legal and otherwise) that come along with Real Estate transactions. (Which could be a thread all it's own)


To get to the point of what I was going to say.. Yes we have been getting a ton of listings lately (indicating a shift towards a buyers market). Right about the time I would think (privately) the sky is gonna fall!!

A bunch of buyers in a flurry come online. LOL.. Which is all the phone calls THIS WEEK of people now again wanting to spend money in Lake Havasu. (In real time things are flip flopping day to day)

To watch these threads, is absolutely incredible. Seeing the reports brought up, and scouring the data.. Listening to some of the extremely educated opinions (in some cases over educated?) than watching guys like @DrunkenSailor come on here and make a post. (Is that even English? I think I'll just go sit in a corner and put my dunce hat on)

At the end of the day though, all that data, all that passion, all that typing... and I can't honestly say sitting where I'm sitting that not anyone of them has actually been "conclusively right."

Anyhow to reiterate the point more directly.. Not "every" RE person has been shouting from the rooftops that everything is gonna be roses. Strangely the ones doing a considerable amount of business remember the first day of RE school.. We aren't financial advisors.

RD
“We got fucked in 2008 and now is our time” is the majority of what I’m reading.

Problem is, history tells us by the time you’ve (average citizen) figured out the game, they change the rules.

Grandparents of the Great Depression spent their lifetime waiting for it to happen again and it never did.
 

Cdog

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You know I sure thought the same thing, and my overall outlook (privately) was probably more grim than anyones on here. I moved here in 2011 and I remember what the housing market was like here as a buyer. I was a predator in a sea of prey, and it was easy Pickens.


Now I want to point something out to @angiebaby @PaPaG, and many others before I circle around to what I have to say. I have read many many times in this thread and others that the people relative to the "RE Industry" (without exception) have posted on here or claimed time and time again that the worlds full of rainbows as the sky is falling around us.. Everything is gonna be just fine, and post up some abstract #'s that paint a rosy outlook, while others see the shades of red as the blood of homeowners.


I own a real estate team, along side my wife. Without sounding arrogant, but rather humbled, because a large portion of that business comes from this very website.. We do a very large amount of RE business in Lake Havasu. Last year was about 91 Million the bulk of which was in LHC.

This thread is kind of all over the board, but it does seem (for some reason) that people are equating the Havasu market with the entire country.. (Which is absolutely crazy to me, because this market has been under extreme extenuating circumstances sense covid)

Never once, have you seen me say on here "Things are going to be just fine!! C'mon out and buy a house!" You haven't seen anyone on TRDP (to my knowledge) come on here and say something asinine like that. If your RE Agent is telling you shit like that, or your lender they aren't working for you, they are working for themselves.

It isn't the job of an RE agent or anyone in the RE Fields to be a Financial Advisor, or Financial Planner. The only job of an RE Agent is to Market the house (show the qualities of the house to as many people as possible) and try to get the most money for it, or inversely to find a property that is suitable for the client and negotiate the best possible deal for your client. In both directions to make sure that the client doesn't fall into the thousands of potential pitfalls (legal and otherwise) that come along with Real Estate transactions. (Which could be a thread all it's own)


To get to the point of what I was going to say.. Yes we have been getting a ton of listings lately (indicating a shift towards a buyers market). Right about the time I would think (privately) the sky is gonna fall!!

A bunch of buyers in a flurry come online. LOL.. Which is all the phone calls THIS WEEK of people now again wanting to spend money in Lake Havasu. (In real time things are flip flopping day to day)

To watch these threads, is absolutely incredible. Seeing the reports brought up, and scouring the data.. Listening to some of the extremely educated opinions (in some cases over educated?) than watching guys like @DrunkenSailor come on here and make a post. (Is that even English? I think I'll just go sit in a corner and put my dunce hat on)

At the end of the day though, all that data, all that passion, all that typing... and I can't honestly say sitting where I'm sitting that not anyone of them has actually been "conclusively right."

Anyhow to reiterate the point more directly.. Not "every" RE person has been shouting from the rooftops that everything is gonna be roses. Strangely the ones doing a considerable amount of business remember the first day of RE school.. We aren't financial advisors.

RD
Dave - Do you have any data on the average property owners age In Havasu? I have a hunch it’s mostly boomers & older Gen x. That being the case I don’t see these folks having fire sales as they’re financially stable & or retired.

The market moves either direction & they’re happy right where the chose to be.

I’m sure their will be some opportunities here and their but without some black swan financial event these are the kinda folks somewhat insulted.
 

throttle

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No glass ball theory's from me, however Havasu currently has over 300 homes on the market (not seen that for a very long time), lots of them sitting longer and offer reduced prices (some even have incentives). The boat market seems to be similar in my opinion. My thoughts have been that the inflated prices (houses and boats) were gonna be temporary, lots ran a good run. Some missed the market coming in a little late, some don't care as they will still break even. At the end of the day, things are simply put by seeing that things have slowed down.

For the professionals... Have you seen a reduction in the number of homes selling, loans signed?
 

c_land

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CA association of realtors today.

After the wild beginning of this year, it’s crazy to think prices are only up 2.8% yoy. Median Prices fell 3.5% from June to July.

5AE1F7E6-6354-485F-9D3C-6659E6B592AF.jpeg
 

NicPaus

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Nobody on here is saying its all roses and going to stay the same or go up. They are saying it's not going to be like 2008-2010. The other group is saying prepare for a huge crash like 2008-2010.

The loan rates and qualifications last few years were nothing like 2005-07.

But you never know we got a shitty president he might just fuck our economy beyond repair. I hope not but can't control it. If he does back to 20 plus river trips a year and vacation every weekend like Obama days.
 

Cdog

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Nobody on here is saying its all roses and going to stay the same or go up. They are saying it's not going to be like 2008-2010. The other group is saying prepare for a huge crash like 2008-2010.

The loan rates and qualifications last few years were nothing like 2005-07.

But you never know we got a shitty president he might just fuck our economy beyond repair. I hope not but can't control it. If he does back to 20 plus river trips a year and vacation every weekend like Obama days.
Doom porn is a real thing. I honestly don’t care. A correction creates opportunities.

The cycles happen over & over.
 

grumpy88

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Dave - Do you have any data on the average property owners age In Havasu? I have a hunch it’s mostly boomers & older Gen x. That being the case I don’t see these folks having fire sales as they’re financially stable & or retired.

The market moves either direction & they’re happy right where the chose to be.

I’m sure their will be some opportunities here and their but without some black swan financial event these are the kinda folks somewhat insulted.
I would think it would be the airbnb homes that the owners stretched to cover if there not rented full time . That and the people who eventually grow tired of the area selling off
 

NicPaus

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Doom porn is a real thing. I honestly don’t care. A correction creates opportunities.

The cycles happen over & over.
Yep. If we could only predict the cycle. If it takes a shit. Flips or buy rehab and rent long term. If it stays strong work for customers. Not going to lose sleep over it.
 

Cdog

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Yep. If we could only predict the cycle. If it takes a shit. Flips or buy rehab and rent long term. If it stays strong work for customers. Not going to lose sleep over it.
We’re in a cycle, where we’re at in it is the question at hand.

Problem is nobody listens when you tell them it’s time to buy. The lemmings fall for the auction affect. Generation after generation.

On the opposite end there’s the “end is NeAR” folks. Rooting for more people to join their group think circle jerk.

Sure things are changing/evolving, to what degree nobody knows for sure.

But if you do the math. Renting for 2 years for 20-25% discount doesn’t always pencil out.
 

badgas

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I would think it would be the airbnb homes that the owners stretched to cover if there not rented full time . That and the people who eventually grow tired of the area selling off
There are SO many homes that were converted to short term rentals that it has created a shortage of long term.

The short term market is SLOW compared to the last two years that were unrealistic. I'm sure you are correct that those STR owners that are leveraged are gonna have to make a move to long term or sell.
 

Englewood

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There are SO many homes that were converted to short term rentals that it has created a shortage of long term.

The short term market is SLOW compared to the last two years that were unrealistic. I'm sure you are correct that those STR owners that are leveraged are gonna have to make a move to long term or sell.
I’m looking for long term rental opportunities in Havasu. My concern (one of them) is that when all these STR slow down they will get converted to LTR. It will put doward pressure on rents which are actually pretty low in relation to home prices.

I’m seeing some 700k RV/Pool homes and 150k lots. If these lots get to 100k, the ballers will swoop in and buy every one.

YET, they will be soon

When?!
 

Havasu blue label

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It will hit havasu we have been buying and selling in havasu for over 25 years congrats on the 140 million in sales Dave .
 

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Put in the offer most lots and homes are on 5 year loans investors want there money realtor’s bought up a bunch now need to liquidate
 

DC-88

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Did you notice any mucky water? we went swimming on Monday and Tuesday above the needles bridge and noticed a lot of discolored water flowing down mid river due to the storms, wonder how far it got before really diluting. Positively the best time of the year to go boating once the kiddos go back too school.
Sunday afternoon there was a good cell that came through-we were skiing and then waiting for the water to come up a bit sitting on the beach, but got the boat out of the water real quick when that popped up. I'll try to post a video- I was like.... yeah looks like about 3 minutes to the girls and it was more like 2 when I got up to move the trailer . It was semi- cloudy water till Topock on Monday , then brown from there down to Havasu. I didn't head as far S on Tue. though. Crowds and water level way down from the last 4-5 seasons for sure. Love the 1-3 unit water level for the crowd factor compared to last years 7 month long 5 unit water dump .
 
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