For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[RiverDave]

So when do 08 magic deck boats drop back to 08 prices?

We are officially in a free fall.. . Magic for sub 80k.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I understand the lag time, I just find it odd that anything can be nothing like one thing, and yet also exactly the same. Seems relatively counterintuitive.

As for the economy adding rather than shedding jobs, I wonder if the jobs are equivalent of those lost? Meaning, are those cut from 50k jobs getting the same, or 30k? During Obummer's term, I heard the term "underemployed". Was a new term to me, but publicized heavily at the time. I wonder if their job numbers are as accurate as their inflation numbers...picking and choosing to tell their story.

Consider the counter point to the reason it is being said.

I’ve read countless times - Everyone is overlevered just like 2006!! OMG no one learned anything in 2008! Theses people are using their houses as ATMs!! Toy sale is coming!

Next sentence - In 6, 9, 12, 18 months houses will be 50% less and cannot be sold.

Ok great. It took 6 years to from peak to bottom of housing prices last time.

It took 3 years from peak to “toy sale time” last time.

So now the expectation is 18 months to the pit of economic despair the likes we’ve never seen before?

It is a recession, they happen. Pop a few Ritalin and relax and wait. But by all means if you want to count a few hundred thousand job losses day by day a couple hundred at a time.. enjoy

 

[RiverDave]

You’re not happy with your choice?

Seriously.. keep it in the dungeon

 

[Wheeler]

“Orange is the new Grads…”
Coming soon to a theater near you!

Will the real "Large Orange Font" please stand up!

 

[MSum661]

Todays Pending Homes sales just out..

Housing Market Update: Homebuying Demand Dips Further as Rates Approach 6%

Pending sales and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index posted their largest year-over-year declines in over two years.

www.redfin.com

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

We are officially in a free fall.. . Magic for sub 80k.

View attachment 1129017

Well is is a 496 boat and needs gel work so that might be why it is so cheap........lol

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Todays Pending Homes sales just out..

Housing Market Update: Homebuying Demand Dips Further as Rates Approach 6%

Pending sales and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index posted their largest year-over-year declines in over two years.

www.redfin.com

“Many home sellers have it stuck in their head that homes are selling a certain amount above asking, or that they can under-price their home to try to generate a bidding war, but that strategy isn’t working anymore,”



You mean if I price it 30% above market people won’t pay it anymore?? And if I discount it to the actual market price that means the market dropped?

 

[monkeyswrench]

It is a recession, they happen. Pop a few Ritalin and relax and wait. But by all means if you want to count a few hundred thousand job losses day by day a couple hundred at a time.. enjoy

Well, my guess would be I'm a tad less worried about the economy than most. Honestly, more curious as to what happens next, and when. The last go around, I was worried about survival...home and food for kids...so much so, I didn't have time to watch it all.

This time, sitting on the front porch, watching the world go by. It's a really different view. My stress level is pretty low...spent the past few days working in the garden. My stressor was doing an AC service on my wife's car, and packing my duffle bag to leave for the river in a bit.

Over 25 years with lots of actual blood and sweat...I'm not living like a king, but I'm still living. The housing market is far from a concern for me, and I'm not really in the "workforce". Just a spectator in some regards.

 

[boatnam2]

Im all for a huge drop as i need somewhere is lay around when i retire, don't see it coming anytime soon, even havasu drop 30% still too high for me.

 

[SLT Kota]

It doesn't happen overnight.

This is a timeline of how long a house I was involved with was on the market both before and after being forclosed. This was not a normal sale or even a normal foreclosure sale but it still took years to happen.

First Listed 8/14/08
2/16/09 7% Drop in price
3/12/09 7% Drop in price
7/27/09 3% Drop in price
4/08/10 Relisted Same price
11/22/10 Relisted Same price
3/18/11 Removed Listing and forclosed on
11/21/11 19% Drop in price
1/25/12 3% Drop in price
3/20/12 under contract but deal fell through after storm damage
4/24/12 28% drop in price and put under contract but deal fell through
8/30/12 13% drop in price and put under contract
11/21/12 Closed with another 16% discount

51 Months between first hitting the market and when it finally closed. Thankfully I was on the better end of the deal.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I'm thinking the same result, but thinking the charts may become more vertical. I don't see how the draw down would be as lengthy as previous, given more contributing factors. Inflation, war and supply chain stupidity to name a few...but the real wild card will be every time the administration makes a move.

My intuition says we have a pretty quick reset in prices that gives up the rapid gains of the last 12-18 months. People know and accept those prices were not reality. From there we just float downward a couple percent a year but given elevated inflation the real decline is actually bigger. I don’t know what the government will do it’s probably going to affect the market.

Right now the STR market is getting more and more regulated. Institutional ownership is considered a problem. California wants to tax the crap out of home flippers. Congress still wants to get minority home ownership much higher to correct the wrongs of the past. Then you have the quasi govt entities Fannie and Freddie owning all the loans and the fed with their poor monetary policy. I’m still livin the dream with my prop 13 tax value and Cali weather

 

[Instigator]

I find it funny that everyone thinks they have the economy figured out and they feel so compelled to teach everyone else about their economic wisdom.
The internet is full of know it all's.
Here is a perfect example.

For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

JP Morgan Chase just announced a layoff of at least 1000 people and more to come due to the drastic drop in both housing purchases credited to CRAZY HOUSING MARKET slowing correcting and the doubling of interest rates..Redfin, Realtor.com did the same...YOU'VE seen Nothing YET.......if you...

www.riverdavesplace.com

 

[Skinny Tire AH]

I find it funny that everyone thinks they have the economy figured out and they feel so compelled to teach everyone else about their economic wisdom.
The internet is full of know it all's.
Here is a perfect example.

For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

JP Morgan Chase just announced a layoff of at least 1000 people and more to come due to the drastic drop in both housing purchases credited to CRAZY HOUSING MARKET slowing correcting and the doubling of interest rates..Redfin, Realtor.com did the same...YOU'VE seen Nothing YET.......if you...

www.riverdavesplace.com

Exactly

I wonder why, if these geniuses have it figured out, they’re still posting on a boating forum and not on their 250’ Yacht in the Mediterranean.

 

[was thatguy]

Exactly

I wonder why, if these geniuses have it figured out, they’re still posting on a boating forum and not on their 250’ Yacht in the Mediterranean.

That hurts…you KNOW my yacht’s only 50 meters!!

 

[monkeyswrench]

Exactly

I wonder why, if these geniuses have it figured out, they’re still posting on a boating forum and not on their 250’ Yacht in the Mediterranean.

Poor internet connection on the yacht, great connection in the channel

 

[Skinny Tire AH]

Poor internet connection on the yacht, great connection in the channel

“And nobody on RDP hangs out in the channel either.”

 

[Havasu blue label]

Don’t need a yacht to be smart investor

 

[Instigator]

Don’t need a yacht to be smart investor

It could also be said that smart investors don't invest into a hole in the water to which you pour money either
Kind of says something about everyone here, doesn't it.
Lol

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

“And nobody on RDP hangs out in the channel either.”

The ones that do don’t drink a drop, wear a lanyard and paid cash for that gas and boat.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Don’t need a yacht to be smart investor

Where does grammar and spelling fall into the smart investor profile?

 

[Skinny Tire AH]

The ones that do don’t drink a drop, wear a lanyard and paid cash for that gas and boat.

I can honestly say, I have driven through the channel a couple times per trip. But I have NEVER stopped, once.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I can honestly say, I have driven through the channel a couple times per trip. But I have NEVER stopped, once.

Weekdays are great, especially now in the hot months in the early evening. Throw the BBQ on the wall and cook up dinner in the shade.

 

[Skinny Tire AH]

Weekdays are great, especially now in the hot months in the early evening. Throw the BBQ on the wall and cook up dinner in the shade.

The deck on my boat is so long, that wall is far too close and there are far too many rocks. I'm pretty picky about my sand.

and...is that a dinner invite?

 

[Big B Hova]

We are officially in a free fall.. . Magic for sub 80k.

View attachment 1129017

It's a start! When it drops to the 45k range I'll be in lol

 

[Havasu blue label]

really dude still worried about my grammar . ok sell my home in calif then move out of state and still have a note on my property you type better then you invest

 

[HNL2LHC]

Weekdays are great, especially now in the hot months in the early evening. Throw the BBQ on the wall and cook up dinner in the shade.

@LargeOrangeFont Agreed…..SO…….when are we going to do it??????

 

[badgas]

So a 5-10k reduction in the mortgage industry is going to “kill” housing ? Where they probably had too many people to begin with. IDK.

Once we start losing blue collar jobs then I start to worry.

Exactly !

They had crazy refi boom for 3+ years so WAY to many bodies were added for the normal loan and real estate cycle.

OMG ! real estate is going back to 30-60 DOM and offers under asking : )

Just like it was for last 25 years before covid.

Real estate might go to zero but the data is the exact opposite of 2008. The only correlation is high home prices.

 

[badgas]

Real Estate Reality Check | RamseySolutions.com

You’re hearing the housing market could crash and don’t know if you should buy or sell. See why Dave and other Ramsey personalities say you don’t have to worry.

www.ramseysolutions.com

This will based on real estate data not opinions.

I know it is really hard for Internet social media types to concentrate and listen to stats because it is more fun to get pissed off and emotinal and parrot MSM talking points but if you own or plan to own real estate you should sign up and watch ot listen to this.

Peace

 

[TCHB]

With so many experts on here, can someone just tell me when all the boats and SXS will be going up for sale? I am ready for the deals!

People want things and when you have cheep credit people do stupid things. I bought many things from this type of seller. It is about individual actions not who is in the big office.

 

[badgas]

JP Morgan Chase just announced a layoff of at least 1000 people and more to come due to the drastic drop in both housing purchases credited to CRAZY HOUSING MARKET slowing correcting and the doubling of interest rates..Redfin, Realtor.com did the same...YOU'VE seen Nothing YET.......if you planned on selling I hope you got it done or soon...if not expect some changes very soon. On the other hand, if you are a potential cash buyer TONS of great opportunities around the corner and from what I am guessing another 2 years of downturn and great prices to start very soon....

I have a question about past recessions. We had 12 recessions between the depression and 2008. I'm curious if everyone yelled " it's the great depression all over again" 12 times before a something big actually hit ?

I have no perspective on this I'm only 53 and the decade from 07-17 was my most fruitful by a longshot so I did not even know we were in a recession. I'm not kidding btw I was so busy working it was not until family member lost a home that even heard what was going on.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

@LargeOrangeFont Agreed…..SO…….when are we going to do it??????

You around Monday??

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The deck on my boat is so long, that wall is far too close and there are far too many rocks. I'm pretty picky about my sand.

and...is that a dinner invite?

Yes. Just tell me when. I have a loaner bote you can use now.

 

[Wheeler]

Yes. Just tell me when. I have a loaner bote you can use now.

View attachment 1129140

Is that a real Pirate in your Jet Bote' or did you find it Bobbing down the river?

 

[Springfield]

The ones that do don’t drink a drop, wear a lanyard and paid cash for that gas and boat.

Hey are you calling me out? I paid Peter good money for my lanyard, Oh right I dont hang out in the channel carry on.

 

[Fastdadtsmith]

The ones that do don’t drink a drop, wear a lanyard and paid cash for that gas and boat.

I'll work on the lanyard, but the 496HO doesn't get to lanyard speeds.

 

[JUSTWANNARACE]

Yes. Just tell me when. I have a loaner bote you can use now.

View attachment 1129140

Soo many things that pic could turn into.. @TBI

 

[jet496]

Well, my guess would be I'm a tad less worried about the economy than most. Honestly, more curious as to what happens next, and when. The last go around, I was worried about survival...home and food for kids...so much so, I didn't have time to watch it all.

This time, sitting on the front porch, watching the world go by. It's a really different view. My stress level is pretty low...spent the past few days working in the garden. My stressor was doing an AC service on my wife's car, and packing my duffle bag to leave for the river in a bit.

Over 25 years with lots of actual blood and sweat...I'm not living like a king, but I'm still living. The housing market is far from a concern for me, and I'm not really in the "workforce". Just a spectator in some regards.

Yup, house is paid off, 56 solar panels, a well with 5000 gal tank, the economy falling apart doesn't concern me much now days. My 27 year old son on the other hand is looking of a house but is content to see the shit hit the fan first.

 

[Skinny Tire AH]

Soo many things that pic could turn into.. @TBI

SYB.

 

[FROGMAN524]

Ne

People want things and when you have cheep credit people do stupid things. I bought many things from this type of seller. It is about individual actions not who is in the big office.

Next time you’re out and about make sure you wear your “build back better” hat so I can spot you and say hi.

 

[TCHB]

Ne

Next time you’re out and about make sure you wear your “build back better” hat so I can spot you and say hi.

I build my own!

 

[Tom Slick]

For me in Southern Ca I am having a hard time keeping up.

I have a question about past recessions. We had 12 recessions between the depression and 2008. I'm curious if everyone yelled " it's the great depression all over again" 12 times before a something big actually hit ?

I have no perspective on this I'm only 53 and the decade from 07-17 was my most fruitful by a longshot so I did not even know we were in a recession. I'm not kidding btw I was so busy working it was not until family member lost a home that even heard what was going on.

Good for you. Sadly others weren’t as fortunate.

 

[FROGMAN524]

I build my own!

Uh huh. You’re taking it in the ass like everyone else and you’ve got to save face. It’s ok, we understand your shame.

 

[TCHB]

Uh huh. You’re taking it in the ass like everyone else and you’ve got to save face. It’s ok, we understand your shame.

Sounds like you know everything. I bet you are a scratch golfer too!

 

[Bowtiepower00]

IMO, the big unanswered question is, did anyone learn a lesson during the previous downturn (08-12ish- not talking Covid era- I don’t consider that a real downturn) or will the masses repeat the stupidity that occurred previously?

I know plenty of people who could have buckled down and made ends meet in the last downturn, but they expected a govt bailout/ loan mod, etc, and got burned.

Most people have made record money the last few years. Did they minimize debt? Or double down on the toys?

I would like to think people got smarter after the last downturn, but from everything I’ve seen I’m not so sure. Free govt money and nobody really having to be responsible for their decisions make me see signs of 08 all over again.

When I moved to PHX in 06, I was amazed at the amount of money I perceived- everyone had a new diesel, toyhauler, toys, etc. Come to find out it was all equity pulled from homes. Doesn’t seem very different this time.

I hope it is different, but once you throw in inflation, all bets are off.

 

[dnewps]

CA is fucked. Payment buyers. The rest of the nation is stable especially considering that institutional buyers are buying because stocks and bonds are dropping together. Not many places to put money and hard assets work. Bonds are about to change. Kinda bummed my boat won’t bring payment money...got my eye on a Howard SCS now that my kids are going to college

 

[LuauLounge]

So, I will be seling my primary residence in Ca, paid $127k, 35 years ago. Top of the market is about $895k, diid a full inside outside redo 12 years ago. My thought is to possibly take back a first mortgage, balance price vs interest rate.
Thoughts? Looking back over the last 250 years, don't bet against the US.

 

[badgas]

Good for you. Sadly others weren’t as fortunate.

Believe me when say I do NOT take it for granted. After it was all over it was major eye opener for me and I have spent the last 13 years getting debt out of my life because of what I witnessed.

 

[jet496]

IMO, the big unanswered question is, did anyone learn a lesson during the previous downturn (08-12ish- not talking Covid era- I don’t consider that a real downturn) or will the masses repeat the stupidity that occurred previously?

I know plenty of people who could have buckled down and made ends meet in the last downturn, but they expected a govt bailout/ loan mod, etc, and got burned.

Most people have made record money the last few years. Did they minimize debt? Or double down on the toys?

I would like to think people got smarter after the last downturn, but from everything I’ve seen I’m not so sure. Free govt money and nobody really having to be responsible for their decisions make me see signs of 08 all over again.

When I moved to PHX in 06, I was amazed at the amount of money I perceived- everyone had a new diesel, toyhauler, toys, etc. Come to find out it was all equity pulled from homes. Doesn’t seem very different this time.

I hope it is different, but once you throw in inflation, all bets are off.

I knew so many people that refinanced 3 or 4 times, with adjustables & balloon payments all went for toys & shit. Most lost it all & are divorced. I don't care what anybody says, stay the fuck out of dept. I have friends that say, oh no, we use other peoples money to make money.

Time will tell but the liberals are the dumbest people I've ever seen.

 

[Bowtiepower00]

I knew so many people that refinanced 3 or 4 times, with adjustables & balloon payments all went for for toys & shit. Most are lost it all & are divorced.. I don't care what anybody says, stay the fuck out of dept. I have friends that say, oh no, we use other peoples money to make money.

Time will tell but the liberals are the dumbest people I've ever seen.

Looking back, in 08 we had a group of 5-6 couples, all mid 20s, who had bought houses and starting life together. We all had a loss of income. My wife and I are financially conservative- even when they said the house we paid 180k for was worth 70k we ate Ramen and worked extra shifts, etc, to make our payments.

All of our friends tried loan mods, etc, and lost their houses.

We are the only couple still together.

 

[HNL2LHC]

You around Monday??

Yes, we are in town for a few weeks. What you got in mind?