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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

EmpirE231

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You pretty much defined a normal home sale there. The house was priced for March 2022, and the owner had to lower the price.

$250k upside for a house in Riverside in 6 years as we enter a housing downtown isn’t bad.
place had hardscape / landscape done, uprades etc...

I'd say walked away at a wash after 6-7 years after going through the biggest market increase most recently is pretty bad.

regardless, small sample... but I am seeing it more and more often.
 

MSum661

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Fed Terminal Rate has been adjusted from 2.5% to 4.6% in 2023.
Also, 12 out of 19 FOMC members expect Fed Funds between 4.50% and 5.0% by the END of 2023.
So rates will stay elevated through all of 2023.
 

hallett21

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place had hardscape / landscape done, uprades etc...

I'd say walked away at a wash after 6-7 years after going through the biggest market increase most recently is pretty bad.

regardless, small sample... but I am seeing it more and more often.
60-70k in property taxes. Still did better than renting the equivalent home.

Which is my reason for thinking people will not walk.

Since 1929 and even before that the game has never been played the same way twice.

In the last 25 years we had the dot com bubble, 08 housing crisis, and a “pandemic”.

History certainly will and does repeat itself. But rarely in back to back innings.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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place had hardscape / landscape done, uprades etc...

I'd say walked away at a wash after 6-7 years after going through the biggest market increase most recently is pretty bad.

regardless, small sample... but I am seeing it more and more often.

If you are at a wash today in So Cal after the last 7 years you did something wrong :).

That said going with your sample, The free rent for 7 years is worth $200,000 minimum.
 
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EmpirE231

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60-70k in property taxes. Still did better than renting the equivalent home.

Which is my reason for thinking people will not walk.

Since 1929 and even before that the game has never been played the same way twice.

In the last 25 years we had the dot com bubble, 08 housing crisis, and a “pandemic”.

History certainly will and does repeat itself. But rarely in back to back innings.

IMO we're poised to have something we've never seen before... due to unprecedented things such as QE, artificially low rates, pandemic, govt printing money like never before.... so I wouldn't be surprised if we have some back to back innings. Mix that in with the problem being on a global scale, not just US alone.

regardless, home prices seem to be going down... which is what this thread was about.
 

MSum661

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IMO we're poised to have something we've never seen before... due to unprecedented things such as QE, artificially low rates, pandemic, govt printing money like never before.... so I wouldn't be surprised if we have some back to back innings. Mix that in with the problem being on a global scale, not just US alone.

regardless, home prices seem to be going down... which is what this thread was about.

Credit tightening threat is real.
So is default risk.

Patience.
 

HNL2LHC

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Here’s the article from redfin


View attachment 1156855 View attachment 1156856 View attachment 1156858 View attachment 1156859

Those are the poor Lux home buyers on a tight budget. The rich Lux home buyers are still building/buying at this time. It will be interesting to see if things are the same in the next 18 months. Being that our back log is rather far out this go around……
 

TCHB

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There was a house down the street from us in Havasu that was on the market for at least a year in 2018/19 for $500K. The people left and rented it out for a while sold and it 6 months for $750K. Crazy!
 
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Cdog

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Odd timing for FHA loan limit increases and minority loan programs being pumped by guilt programs. Almost like someone is trying to get some idiots to hold the bag of exploding shit.
 

JLG614

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Odd timing for FHA loan limit increases and minority loan programs being pumped by guilt programs. Almost like someone is trying to get some idiots to hold the bag of exploding shit.
Honestly I didn't think about that. B of A is offering that new 0 down 0 closing cost and whatever else to Minority people because fuck white people lol Anyone who takes one of those loans at 7-8% in this high market will totally be left holding the bag when this shit drops
 

Cdog

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Honestly I didn't think about that. B of A is offering that new 0 down 0 closing cost and whatever else to Minority people because fuck white people lol Anyone who takes one of those loans at 7-8% in this high market will totally be left holding the bag when this shit drops
It's tragically funny. Truth is if they qualify for the "free shit" they're gonna get rolled. Very few have the income and credit to qualify. Then there's the reality that this is nothing more than a pandering PR campaign.

Like telling a retard if you get straight A's I'll buy you a new Camaro.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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It's tragically funny. Truth is if they qualify for the "free shit" they're gonna get rolled. Very few have the income and credit to qualify. Then there's the reality that this is nothing more than a pandering PR campaign.

Like telling a retard if you get straight A's I'll buy you a new Camaro.

Exactly. It is just ESG pandering and virtue signaling.
 

Cdog

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Exactly. It is just ESG pandering and virtue signaling.
I keep saying to people. Stop arguing over what they're selling. Recognize what they're tying to accomplish.

BLM
Antifa
black caucuses
fighting racism with racism
anti 1st & 2nd amendment
micro agressions
gender dysmorphia
pronouns
virtue signaling
green energy
Revisionist history

All diversionary tactics of communist theory to seize political power
 

77charger

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We may see 9% rates before years end. If Biden keeps spending money, we may have to see 10% or 7% by the fed to combat his induced inflation. I am going to live like a pauper until this is over. Going big and buying everything in sight when I feel the grunt of the drop is over. We could see a real estate crash of some sort. Won't happen until after the mid-terms, but I'm starting to think it could happen.
I’m no expert but say a good drop in prices is coming higher rates will take a toll the under 4 percent stuff was a bonus most older folks thought 8 was great at one time. I’ve seen good drops in my neighborhood Phx area. I’m not worried but some think there won’t ever be a drop.

It will dip then like normal come back stronger next cycle though.
 

pronstar

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Honestly I didn't think about that. B of A is offering that new 0 down 0 closing cost and whatever else to Minority people because fuck white people lol Anyone who takes one of those loans at 7-8% in this high market will totally be left holding the bag when this shit drops
They should be convicted of predatory lending.
 

Englewood

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They should be convicted of predatory lending.
Clinton did the same thing in the late 90's.

"Under Clinton’s Housing and Urban Development (HUD) secretary, Andrew Cuomo, Community Reinvestment Act regulators gave banks higher ratings for home loans made in “credit-deprived” areas. Banks were effectively rewarded for throwing out sound underwriting standards and writing loans to those who were at high risk of defaulting. If banks didn’t comply with these rules, regulators reined in their ability to expand lending and deposits."
 

kurtis500

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I’ve read and watched at least 10 articles about a coming global recession. Not really panic driven but from mostly reliable sources (CNBC, Fox Biz and etc.). They even give a March 2023 approximate time frame.

It seems guaranteed, anyone see this as hype? Just curious. Not sure how they all act so confident.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I’ve read and watched at least 10 articles about a coming global recession. Not really panic driven but from mostly reliable sources (CNBC, Fox Biz and etc.). They even give a March 2023 approximate time frame.

It seems guaranteed, anyone see this as hype? Just curious. Not sure how they all act so confident.

We are already in a global recession.
 

pronstar

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I’ve read and watched at least 10 articles about a coming global recession. Not really panic driven but from mostly reliable sources (CNBC, Fox Biz and etc.). They even give a March 2023 approximate time frame.

It seems guaranteed, anyone see this as hype? Just curious. Not sure how they all act so confident.

They’re confident because it’s already happening

Let’s set aside the word “recession” since the .gov changes the definition of words.

Go by what your eyes see.
Here’s a little bit of what I see that’s right in front of me:
  • Fed about to liquidate trillions from their balance sheet
  • Crazy strong dollar causing a massive global dollar liquidity crisis…countries are literally on the brink of collapse, with China and Japan leading the way
  • OPEC pinching their own output, instead buying cheap Russian oil and reselling it to the west
  • Draining the SPR to keep gas prices down…and an administration that has done nothing but beg our enemies for oil, and not looking for ways to tap our own
  • Major financial institutions literally getting out of the market, press releases full of warnings of what’s coming
  • Major corporations giving strong warnings of what’s coming, and preparing for the worst including announcing layoffs
  • Inverted bond yields…thus his literally a direct warning of what’s to come
  • Continuous money printing, giving crack to the crackheads and it’s not slowing down
  • Food production way down
  • Europe on the brink of economic collapse and massive energy issues, to the point people are stacking firewood for the winter
  • Mortgage rates rising
  • Auto loan defaults on the rise
The only folks stating everything is ok, are the people who need votes, and the media who carry their water.
 

Gonefishin5555

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I’ve read and watched at least 10 articles about a coming global recession. Not really panic driven but from mostly reliable sources (CNBC, Fox Biz and etc.). They even give a March 2023 approximate time frame.

It seems guaranteed, anyone see this as hype? Just curious. Not sure how they all act so confident.

There is no exact date for a recession. It’s already started and will probably last until at least next spring. Maybe they are trying to push the start of the recession out past the November elections? Wishful thinking.
 

TCHB

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For the past ten years or so people were drunk with free money. zTake a look at history. https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart
During the last crisis in Havasu I bought a entire garage full of toys. Boat, Harley, RZR, etc. This was a big time fie sale. He refi the house bought all the toys and got caught in the down turn. This guy was way over his head. Could not believe people act in this manner. My advice never go in debt for toys and be careful when buying vacation home. At this level no way!
 

PaPaG

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Anyone here that thinks this environment isn’t worse than 2008 or 2020, you’re out of your fucking mind.

Carry on
100% correct, as well as anyone that thinks housing sales have not and are not slowing big time along with prices going down and going down even further. This has only been 3-4 months since this post started, just wait til we see 6-12 months after each fed increase on how it is effecting the housing market, some experts that know much more than most of us including me say the effect really hits hard at 12-24 months after each increase. I think there will be some great buying opportunities in 12-24 months for cash buyers but who knows. Time will tell where we go...
 

Bpracing1127

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Home prices are dropping all the time. Wife and I are waiting for the right home in st George area. I think we can get 700-750 home today for 650 in a few months.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Those houses were probably $325K 4 years ago. Do you think they will be back down to $325k 4 years from now?
Nooope. Not even close.

This area will give back gains, but it’s one area I don’t see giving back all the Covid gains.

Based on recent sales I’m still up on the house I bought in March, which is better than I was thinking going in. I fully expect it to dip below what I paid for a time at some point in the medium term.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I can see 2018 prices happening again. But not 2010 prices. But more like 2020 prices in the next 2 years.

Agreed wholeheartedly. I think 2018 may happen in some areas too.

Southern UT grew a lot, but interestingly enough it is not on many “top 10” lists as places with the most risk for a big drop in prices. It’s probably 12th or 15th though 😀.
 

stillhustlin

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Home prices are dropping all the time. Wife and I are waiting for the right home in st George area. I think we can get 700-750 home today for 650 in a few months.
St George is a super speculative market. Give it 2-3 years and prices will be substantially lower imo. Gonna start hunting for land in Cedar City so I’m in the same boat.
 
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