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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

Boat 405

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If you are leveraged out right now, with payments on everything. Vacation houses, cars, toys, without any kind of secondary income like rental property.

Those people will get crushed in the next couple years.

The upside of this economy has been too big and too long for it to continue on without serious ramifications.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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If you are leveraged out right now, with payments on everything. Vacation houses, cars, toys, without any kind of secondary income like rental property.

Those people will get crushed in the next couple years.

The upside of this economy has been too big and too long for it to continue on without serious ramifications.
Those people should be selling right now! It's just a matter of time before RV's, Boat's, SXS's, etc become liquidated items. I am seeing most mortgage guys I know sell almost everything they own. Real Estate agents aren't as smart.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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If you are leveraged out right now, with payments on everything. Vacation houses, cars, toys, without any kind of secondary income like rental property.

Those people will get crushed in the next couple years.

The upside of this economy has been too big and too long for it to continue on without serious ramifications.

If someone couldn’t get it figured out in the last decade, I don’t think they ever will.

And we are right back to people’s ability to pay being the lynchpin of the economy… in other words, jobs.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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So wait a second I’m confused..

Are we supposed to buy now? Sell now? Or sell and build now?

What’s the smart move?
Buy low, sell high. If you think we are at a low, then buy. If you think we are at a high or past the high, then sell.

With my analysis, it's time to sell.

As far as your real estate business, don't think this is a bad thing. Talk too Jesse, you can kill it when the market goes South.
 

boatnam2

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So wait a second I’m confused..

Are we supposed to buy now? Sell now? Or sell and build now?

What’s the smart move?
Will RDP send out a text when its time to buy, I'm too confused with thread when is the right time.
 

hallett21

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Can anyone explain gold and silver right now?

They both seem severely suppresed
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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Will RDP send out a text when its time to buy, I'm too confused with thread when is the right time.

He needs to be sending out a voice blast, mailer, and text blast to everyone in Havasu stating to sell now. Let the other agents represent the buyers on downward trending market because those buyers will hate their agents. The sellers that sell before their homes go down 20% will consider RiverDiva a savior.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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Can anyone explain gold and silver right now?

They both seem severely suppresed
Gold went down from 2008 to 2009, I think it's downward trend is similar to what we are feeling right now...the initial downward trend. I assume it will rebound upward at some point.
 

hallett21

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He needs to be sending out a voice blast, mailer, and text blast to everyone in Havasu stating to sell now. Let the other agents represent the buyers on downward trending market because those buyers will hate their agents. The sellers that sell before their homes go down 20% will consider RiverDiva a savior.
So in other words create more fear in a market based upon a hunch?

Sounds like a good way to piss off people you sold a home to in the last 12-24 months.
 

Gonefishin5555

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Still waiting for inventory to get to normal in my city only 17 homes for sale and those are mostly ones with unrealistic asking prices
 

PaPaG

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Home prices are dropping all the time. Wife and I are waiting for the right home in st George area. I think we can get 700-750 home today for 650 in a few months.

So wait a second I’m confused..

Are we supposed to buy now? Sell now? Or sell and build now?

What’s the smart move?
You are a smart cookie and in the business, you can easily see the trend, do what is right for your family and you will be fine.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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So in other words create more fear in a market based upon a hunch?

Sounds like a good way to piss off people you sold a home to in the last 12-24 months.

Not really a hunch. Jerome Powell said rates will continue to rise and he even forecasted a housing downturn. Definitely going to piss off the buyers that purchased in the last 12 months, but the buyers before that still have good equity.

This only goes for Havasu since that place is hugely second homes. We all need a primary residence and a place to live. Don't sell your primary residence unless you like living with mom and dad or have a nice cheap rental lined up. We are starting see see rents go down too. Many didn't see that happening.
 

hallett21

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Not really a hunch. Jerome Powell said rates will continue to rise and he even forecasted a housing downturn. Definitely going to piss off the buyers that purchased in the last 12 months, but the buyers before that still have good equity.

This only goes for Havasu since that place is hugely second homes. We all need a primary residence and a place to live. Don't sell your primary residence unless you like living with mom and dad or have a nice cheap rental lined up. We are starting see see rents go down too. Many didn't see that happening.
So who’s gonna buy these homes when they tell their whole book of business it’s time to sell and not buy lol.
 

Orange Juice

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So wait a second I’m confused..

Are we supposed to buy now? Sell now? Or sell and build now?

What’s the smart move?
If you’re a cash buyer, anytime is a good time to buy.
If you need financing, interest up to 8.25% is probably doable. Refinance when it makes since, and pay mortgage off fast.

If you can’t afford 8%, you’re probably buying too much house.

When money is expensive, it’s best not to carry to much debt.

Hold on to your low interest rate mortgage. A small Equity loan might make sense.

😁
 

c_land

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Not really a hunch. Jerome Powell said rates will continue to rise and he even forecasted a housing downturn. Definitely going to piss off the buyers that purchased in the last 12 months, but the buyers before that still have good equity.

He's got a speech today, lets see how he feels after the action of the past couple of days lol. I still think he's spineless.
 

Orange Juice

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Still waiting for inventory to get to normal in my city only 17 homes for sale and those are mostly ones with unrealistic asking prices
Still not much available in Phoenix. No one sells when the Super Bowl comes to town. They rent their homes out.

If we continue to raise rates, summer 2023 might be a problem.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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He's got a speech today, lets see how he feels after the action of the past couple of days lol. I still think he's spineless.

I kinda like the guy. He’s Biden’s worst enemy right now. If he didn’t raise rates we would see more inflation and long term problems.

Personally, I make money when he speaks and lose money when Biden and Yellen speak,
 

traquer

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He needs to be sending out a voice blast, mailer, and text blast to everyone in Havasu stating to sell now. Let the other agents represent the buyers on downward trending market because those buyers will hate their agents. The sellers that sell before their homes go down 20% will consider RiverDiva a savior.
That's how you lose your real estate license, but it's not a bad idea lol
 

MSum661

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He's got a speech today, lets see how he feels after the action of the past couple of days lol. I still think he's spineless.

Whatever he says will keep F'n EVERYTHING up. Its now turned Perpetual.

They're now starting to realize as they raise rates into 8.3% inflation and pussied out by raising their terminal rate to 4.6% that at the same time the "Real" Inflation rate is actually continuing to climb higher. They're now chasing inflation worse than ever by raising rates.

So screwed that its no longer funny anymore witnessing the giant hole they have dug themselves into.
 

hallett21

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There are always buyers. I sold homes from 2008 to 2011 all day long.

People buy things all the time. Remember, people buy Kia cars. Would you buy a Kia?

Buying different quality of cars is different than encouraging clients to sell while simultaneously trying to find them a buyer.

Plus you’d kill the market over night if you start bringing 10-20 homes a month to market.

The better approach might be to tell clients to sit down with a financial advisor, and if they find selling is the best option, you’d be more than happy to facilitate that.

I feel like the masses are yelling fire in the movie theatre and completely disregarding low monthly payments.

I just saw that a 600k 2.9ish% mortgage is the same as todays 392k when it comes to monthly payment.

And then you need to factor in lost equity due to commissions when you sell.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Buying different quality of cars is different than encouraging clients to sell while simultaneously trying to find them a buyer.

Plus you’d kill the market over night if you start bringing 10-20 homes a month to market.

The better approach might be to tell clients to sit down with a financial advisor, and if they find selling is the best option, you’d be more than happy to facilitate that.

I feel like the masses are yelling fire in the movie theatre and completely disregarding low monthly payments.

I just saw that a 600k 2.9ish% mortgage is the same as todays 392k when it comes to monthly payment.

And then you need to factor in lost equity due to commissions when you sell.

I’d say the fringes are yelling fire.. just look at this thread. No one is abandoning ship from their sub 3% mortgage rates. Few will.

Yea people that are not in their investments right may be affected… same as every other recession.

But people that can stretch and make it work are more apt to because they too have historically low rates on their investment properties that they may never see again.

But yea the unprepared will succumb to some pain… they always do.
 

Cdog

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Buying different quality of cars is different than encouraging clients to sell while simultaneously trying to find them a buyer.

Plus you’d kill the market over night if you start bringing 10-20 homes a month to market.

The better approach might be to tell clients to sit down with a financial advisor, and if they find selling is the best option, you’d be more than happy to facilitate that.

I feel like the masses are yelling fire in the movie theatre and completely disregarding low monthly payments.

I just saw that a 600k 2.9ish% mortgage is the same as todays 392k when it comes to monthly payment.

And then you need to factor in lost equity due to commissions when you sell.


Don’t let facts & logic get in the way of a good panic thread!!

😂
 

NicPaus

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Nope. I think we will be lucky to see late 2020, 2021 prices. I don’t think they will drop much below those numbers
So if we don't hit 2018 prices. A crash like 2010 most likely will not happen. Which I totally agree with. But a lot of people in this thread think it's 2008 all over again and 2010 prices are around the corner.

2018 was a normal market imo. Last 2 years was not realistic prices so coming back to 2020 is normal not a crash.
 

Cdog

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So if we don't hit 2018 prices. A crash like 2010 most likely will not happen. Which I totally agree with. But a lot of people in this thread think it's 2008 all over again and 2010 prices are around the corner.

2018 was a normal market imo. Last 2 years was not realistic prices so coming back to 2020 is normal not a crash.
When you need a market correction to re enter the market you’ll never pass up an opportunity to fuel the correction via propaganda.

IE: when you’re a hammer & everything looks like a nail.
 

Enen

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Can anyone explain gold and silver right now?

They both seem severely suppresed

Physical gold and silver is trading very differently than spot futures.

To give you an example silver spot is down $18.92 at the time of this post. DEALER COST on a 1oz silver American Eagle is +12.25 over spot. That puts dealer cost at $31.17, and any precious metals dealer is going to mark it up from there.

It appears that a decoupling between the paper derivative gold/silver assets (spot) and the cost of the actual physical asset is occuring.
 

hallett21

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@OldSchoolBoats or anyone else who knows.

Is it possible to have a seller fund buying down a rate?

Meaning let’s say a home is selling for 500k. 400k in equity. Could I buy down the rate 1% for 10k (I’m not sure what that would cost) using the seller’s funds?

Asking because that seems like a creative way to sell your home in the future.
 

hallett21

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Physical gold and silver is trading very differently than spot futures.

To give you an example silver spot is down $18.92 at the time of this post. DEALER COST on a 1oz silver American Eagle is +12.25 over spot. That puts dealer cost at $31.17, and any precious metals dealer is going to mark it up from there.

It appears that a decoupling between the paper derivative gold/silver assets (spot) and the cost of the actual physical asset is occuring.
Good to see you’re still around! Do you still have the big schiada?
 

Cdog

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@OldSchoolBoats or anyone else who knows.

Is it possible to have a seller fund buying down a rate?

Meaning let’s say a home is selling for 500k. 400k in equity. Could I buy down the rate 1% for 10k (I’m not sure what that would cost) using the seller’s funds?

Asking because that seems like a creative way to sell your home in the future.
Yes, common sellers concessions right now.
 

MSum661

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If you are leveraged out right now, with payments on everything. Vacation houses, cars, toys, without any kind of secondary income like rental property.

Those people will get crushed in the next couple years.

The upside of this economy has been too big and too long for it to continue on without serious ramifications.

We'll officially find all that real-time data out, who can and who cannot, in 2023-2024
It's early in the cycle and the facts do not lie.
No hurries.


FdQ1FPCaAAACvSx.png
 

OldSchoolBoats

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@OldSchoolBoats or anyone else who knows.

Is it possible to have a seller fund buying down a rate?

Meaning let’s say a home is selling for 500k. 400k in equity. Could I buy down the rate 1% for 10k (I’m not sure what that would cost) using the seller’s funds?

Asking because that seems like a creative way to sell your home in the future.
Yes you can, all day. I just submitted a new contract yesterday with a 2-1 buydown. The 30 year fixed rate was 6.875% but gets 2% buydown for 1 year and 1% buydown for year 2 (4.875%, 5.875%). Year 3 goes to the fixed 6.875%. The only way to do this program is with seller concessions. In the case of my borrower it was $10,150. Here is the most awesome part of this!! If borrower refinances then any left over buy down funds are applied to principal. Much better than paying points to buydown because if you refinance before you break even, then that money is gone.
 

Cdog

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Physical gold and silver is trading very differently than spot futures.

To give you an example silver spot is down $18.92 at the time of this post. DEALER COST on a 1oz silver American Eagle is +12.25 over spot. That puts dealer cost at $31.17, and any precious metals dealer is going to mark it up from there.

It appears that a decoupling between the paper derivative gold/silver assets (spot) and the cost of the actual physical asset is occuring.
Maybe is just a theory but my reading into the subject is crypto has been a alternative to precious metals as a means to counter inflation.

Mfg slow down coupled with lower consumer demand going into a recession with currency volatility has made metals less attractive as a hedge?

In other words, the juice ain’t worth the squeeze.

That’s just my novice assessment based on my research. Welcome to correct me..
 
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Racey

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Physical gold and silver is trading very differently than spot futures.

To give you an example silver spot is down $18.92 at the time of this post. DEALER COST on a 1oz silver American Eagle is +12.25 over spot. That puts dealer cost at $31.17, and any precious metals dealer is going to mark it up from there.

It appears that a decoupling between the paper derivative gold/silver assets (spot) and the cost of the actual physical asset is occuring.

As it should, the spot futures are an absolute scam that have heavily manipulated those markets for decades
 

hallett21

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Yes you can, all day. I just submitted a new contract yesterday with a 2-1 buydown. The 30 year fixed rate was 6.875% but gets 2% buydown for 1 year and 1% buydown for year 2 (4.875%, 5.875%). Year 3 goes to the fixed 6.875%. The only way to do this program is with seller concessions. In the case of my borrower it was $10,150. Here is the most awesome part of this!! If borrower refinances then any left over buy down funds are applied to principal. Much better than paying points to buydown because if you refinance before you break even, then that money is gone.
Is there a way to flat out buy down 2% for 30 years? I’m sure it’s like 100k lol
 
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MSum661

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Powell 32 minutes ago,

"Fed dealing with exceptionally unusual disruptions"

Equities are tanking.
 

just_floatin

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My first home purchase in 1991 was at a rate of 8.25%. My second home purchase in LHC was 6.25% in year 2000. I am not convinced the sky is falling and the bubble is ready to burst especially with the Phoenix metropolitan rental rates increasing by 12% this year alone. If you are pissed because you purchased a home in the last 12 months and the value dropped. Suck it up buttercup. That is how the RE market works. Sell, walk away or ride it out like the rest of us did circa 2000 and 2008.
 
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