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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

77charger

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So if we don't hit 2018 prices. A crash like 2010 most likely will not happen. Which I totally agree with. But a lot of people in this thread think it's 2008 all over again and 2010 prices are around the corner.

2018 was a normal market imo. Last 2 years was not realistic prices so coming back to 2020 is normal not a crash.
IMO no way we’re going to 2010 prices. 2018 yes I think so.
 

PaPaG

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This market is gearing up to be great for cash buyers, since we already Doubled interest rates as was originally posted resulting in doubling the payments on a newly financed home of the same value, I am thinking finance rates will go to 7%+ especially after the fed increases again in November. I think Cash buyers are going to have a field day with buying opportunities within the next 24 months. Same with the stock market, amazing buying opportunities but not for the weak hearted, crazy money can be made in the same note crazy money can be lost, no guts no glory...
 

TCHB

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In 2010 we were buying homes for less than half of what they originally sold for.
 

boatnam2

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This market is gearing up to be great for cash buyers, since we already Doubled interest rates as was originally posted resulting in doubling the payments on a newly financed home of the same value, I am thinking finance rates will go to 7%+ especially after the fed increases again in November. I think Cash buyers are going to have a field day with buying opportunities within the next 24 months. Same with the stock market, amazing buying opportunities but not for the weak hearted, crazy money can be made in the same note crazy money can be lost, no guts no glory...
I hope so, but one thing is for sure, know one knows what will happen, including the people who do know.
 

TCHB

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I hope so, but one thing is for sure, know one knows what will happen, including the people who do know.
One of the big guys web site was impacted by the volume of people buying US notes. 4.16 interest rate this morning for a one year note. note Let’s get back to normal. Old guys buying T bills!
 

2Driver

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One of the big guys web site was impacted by the volume of people buying US notes. 4.16 interest rate this morning for a one year note. note Let’s get back to normal. Old guys buying T bills!
LOL this old guy bought one yesterday.
 

Dalton

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In 2010 we were buying homes for less than half of what they originally sold for.

It’s not gonna be anything like 2010, but soon people will be slightly upside down on their houses
 

TCHB

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One of the big guys web site was impacted by the volume of people buying US notes. 4.16 interest rate this morning for a one year note. note Let’s get back to normal. Old guys buying T bills! TD Amertrade went down.
 

grumpy88

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kurtis500

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Another question. Might sound dumb but keep in mind my wife is a CFO so I’ve never touched the money or made a payment in 25 years…

If you have a variable interest rate on a loan and the rates keep going up does that mean your payment goes up to? Or is it locked in when you start your mortgage?
 

hallett21

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Another question. Might sound dumb but keep in mind my wife is a CFO so I’ve never touched the money or made a payment in 25 years…

If you have a variable interest rate on a loan and the rates keep going up does that mean your payment goes up to? Or is it locked in when you start your mortgage?
conventional 15,20,30 year fixed loan there’s no change.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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Buying different quality of cars is different than encouraging clients to sell while simultaneously trying to find them a buyer.

Plus you’d kill the market over night if you start bringing 10-20 homes a month to market.

The better approach might be to tell clients to sit down with a financial advisor, and if they find selling is the best option, you’d be more than happy to facilitate that.

I feel like the masses are yelling fire in the movie theatre and completely disregarding low monthly payments.

I just saw that a 600k 2.9ish% mortgage is the same as todays 392k when it comes to monthly payment.

And then you need to factor in lost equity due to commissions when you sell.

Or you use the fed's own words in your marketing. I see agents telling the masses to sell all day long because of an imminent decline and no taps on the hand from the department of real estate.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jero...l6uz0rp70wIAJJ7mqgnDpC0_MZ8CZ63V&guccounter=2

We did bring 20 homes to market in a month...actually a lot more. The market is going to get killed, but killed from interest rates having to be increased by the Fed because of an executive branch is spending money like no other. The inventory is just the response from a lack of sales which accumulate. Simple supply and demand will dictate prices to decline as a large amount of properties come to the market.

I'm a listing agent and I don't work with many buyers at all so that is not my focus whatsoever. I pass the buyer's to my other agents. I focus on the marketing of my listings and the marketing to attract sellers. Where are the sellers coming from....people leaving California and people selling because they feel the market will decline. Trust me, consumers reach out not because agents are telling them the market will decline, they are hearing it on the news, at work and from family/friends. The marketing just attracts them because they feel that broker is on the same page. Literally, just got a call from a client this morning that we liquidated his portfolio of homes so he can get out of California thanking me for pushing him to sell almost at the peak. He was worried as prices were strong and showing an uptrend, but this morning is was so thankful because he would have lost about 80-100k per home if sold today.

You won't lose by holding real estate if you can keep it through a bad economy. Real estate is an amazing asset, but for some it's time to sell.
 

HNL2LHC

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Another question. Might sound dumb but keep in mind my wife is a CFO so I’ve never touched the money or made a payment in 25 years…

If you have a variable interest rate on a loan and the rates keep going up does that mean your payment goes up to? Or is it locked in when you start your mortgage?
There is typically a max that it can go up each year as well and the max that it can go up for the life of the loan.
 

bowtiejunkie

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In 2010 we were buying homes for less than half of what they originally sold for.

2008 there was a lot of ARM’s and fixed mortgage rates were high. After several years, rates did come down, plus the HARP program helped those with high rates to refinance. We bought in 2006 w/35% down @ 6.75% 30/fixed. When values dropped by 50% or more, there was little incentive to hold on. Me being a buy hold guy and living a boring financial life, we held until 2020 (moved out of state). Now with not many ARM’s, low low fixed rates going into this recession, even if houses drop by 50% of peak, who wants to walk from a 3% mortgage?

Certainly, people will panic and sell or sell for x number of other reasons. We’ll find out soon why people end up selling and the resulting smoking deals on real estate.
 

rrrr

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Libs don’t realize that propping-up bankster profits by giving loans to people with no ability to pay it back, is almost the definition of predatory lending.
Federal and state government threats to withhold their business with large banks if they don't write those mortgages is the other ticking time bomb in that equation. B of A didn't announce their intention to write multi billion dollars of interest free mortgages to non-qualified borrowers just because it's a nice thing to do.

When the inevitable occurs, those unqualified buyers will disappear into the brush and the banks will lose their ass. If the liberals are still controlling Congress, there will be another bailout and new legislation that will further skew the fundamentals, thus insuring the same thing will happen again.
 
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stillhustlin

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If anyone is looking for a fixer upper, I just happen to know this seller is desperate...

I was told yesterday they would Jump on 750k. It needs a shit ton of work. I wouldn't offer more than 700k.


I have the agents cell number. PM me if you're serious.
What causes the seller to be desperate? Looks like it sold last for $198k in 1998. Death sale?
 

rivermobster

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What causes the seller to be desperate? Looks like it sold last for $198k in 1998. Death sale?

They wanna go live by their grandkids in TN. It's fallen out of escrow at least 5 times recently!

Last time it fell, it was because there is a Megan's law neighbor close by, and the buyer had little kids!

They have lost two houses in TN because they couldn't sell this place.

And did I mention it needs a shit ton of work? 🤣

The sellers fucked themselves and they know it. 😔

Excellent buy if you have cash and can afford to flip it. 👍🏼
 

NicPaus

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They wanna go live by their grandkids in TN. It's fallen out of escrow at least 5 times recently!

Last time it fell, it was because there is a Megan's law neighbor close by, and the buyer had little kids!

They have lost two houses in TN because they couldn't sell this place.

And did I mention it needs a shit ton of work? 🤣

The sellers fucked themselves and they know it. 😔

Excellent buy if you have cash and can afford to flip it. 👍🏼
What are they going for fixed up in that area?

I have 2 people looking for flips currently. They are looking for the Southbay though. My Cousin is doing a flip in Torrance now. 68 offers on it when he made the offer. Inventory is low. Realtor just sent me 1 in Pedro her investor is thinking of buying. Need to go check it out for her.
 

rivermobster

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What are they going for fixed up in that area?

I have 2 people looking for flips currently. They are looking for the Southbay though. My Cousin is doing a flip in Torrance now. 68 offers on it when he made the offer. Inventory is low. Realtor just sent me 1 in Pedro her investor is thinking of buying. Need to go check it out for her.

It's a Really nice aera. The kind of place where Everyone is out walking their dogs at night and chatting each other up.

All the homes around it are all fixed up nicely. The sellers hasn't done shit to this house, and it shows!

Inspection reveals it needs a complete new roof, pool needs work and it still has the original windows. Lots of visible termite damage too.

Great neighborhood though...

900k to a mil I'd guess. 🤷‍♂️
 

Roosky01

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There is too much money and to few will walk away for that to happen again this time.
As you and others have stated multiple times in this thread, It is about jobs. If the job losses really start to ramp up ( or wages fail to rise), then it does not matter one bit how low of rate you have on your mortgage. The market will be flooded with no buyers who qualify or can afford.

IMO, this could very well get just as bloody as '08 to '12. The underlying factors may be different, but we are really in uncharted territory here. There is enormous instability in just about everything right now...
 

hallett21

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It's a Really nice aera. The kind of place where Everyone is out walking their dogs at night and chatting each other up.

All the homes around it are all fixed up nicely. The sellers hasn't done shit to this house, and it shows!

Inspection reveals it needs a complete new roof, pool needs work and it still has the original windows. Lots of visible termite damage too.

Great neighborhood though...

900k to a mil I'd guess. 🤷‍♂️
So 200k in work.
As you and others have stated multiple times in this thread, It is about jobs. If the job losses really start to ramp up ( or wages fail to rise), then it does not matter one bit how low of rate you have on your mortgage. The market will be flooded with no buyers who qualify or can afford.

IMO, this could very well get just as bloody as '08 to '12. The underlying factors may be different, but we are really in uncharted territory here. There is enormous instability in just about everything right now...
Where would someone go live? In 08-12 people walked on mortgages that were outrageous and moved into affordable rentals.

Now peoples mortgages are less than rents. Unless you bought 12 months ago.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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As you and others have stated multiple times in this thread, It is about jobs. If the job losses really start to ramp up ( or wages fail to rise), then it does not matter one bit how low of rate you have on your mortgage. The market will be flooded with no buyers who qualify or can afford.

IMO, this could very well get just as bloody as '08 to '12. The underlying factors may be different, but we are really in uncharted territory here. There is enormous instability in just about everything right now...

I agree, but even in that situation no one is voluntarily walking away from a payment lower than rent. They will run out the clock, that alone will take a year, after they run out of money.

We have already opened Pandora’s box with Forclosure moratoriums. Those will come back in an election year if the economy gets that bad.

The people in here are still counting job losses by the thousands when the economy was still net picking up tens of thousands of jobs 😂

We simply are not there yet.
 

530RL

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As you and others have stated multiple times in this thread, It is about jobs. If the job losses really start to ramp up ( or wages fail to rise), then it does not matter one bit how low of rate you have on your mortgage. The market will be flooded with no buyers who qualify or can afford.

IMO, this could very well get just as bloody as '08 to '12. The underlying factors may be different, but we are really in uncharted territory here. There is enormous instability in just about everything right now...
Jobless rate was 9.6 in 2010.

We now have 3.7 and about ten million vacant jobs.

The bigger problem is a lack of labor and too much demand driving the inflation. Without an increase in unemployment and a decrease in demand it will be tough to reduce inflation.
 

Havasu blue label

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They will run out of money quickly don’t forget the vacation house the new toys credit cards they all can’t sell and move out of state
 

grumpy88

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So 200k in work.

Where would someone go live? In 08-12 people walked on mortgages that were outrageous and moved into affordable rentals.

Now peoples mortgages are less than rents. Unless you bought 12 months ago.
I have a coworker with 2 rentals and can't afford to carry either . All the equity in them is gone . He pulled it and spent it . 40 hrs a week does not get it done . He is one short week of pay away from it all collapsing or loosing a renter . He is 1 of a lot of people out there .
 

brgrcru

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I like the inmates saying
It will never be like 2008–2010

Really ?
How do you know ?

Like said before . Even the people who know , don’t know a fucking thing .
 

brgrcru

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Jobless rate was 9.6 in 2010.

We now have 3.7 and about ten million vacant jobs.

The bigger problem is a lack of labor and too much demand driving the inflation. Without an increase in unemployment and a decrease in demand it will be tough to reduce inflation.
sorry
Made up, Fudged numbers
They always are .

Just like inflation . Real numbers. 16 / 25% on inflation
 
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