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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

TCHB

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Can't be true lol...just kidding. I think they may hit 1000 sometime soon (within 12/18/24 months when housing fully catches up to current interest hikes), I wonder what the highest number of listings Havi ever had.
I know about a year ago it was less than 100.
 

NicPaus

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In SW Riverside County there were 199 homes for sale last week. This same week last year, there were 391. Interesting.

Just got a VA appraisal in at $25k over ask.
Only city with over a 100 listings any where near us is Compton. A 3 2 is still over 600k there. But the sky is falling and we are back to 2010 crash prices?
 

PaPaG

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100k based on a closed comparable?
or the “ if someone will buy it for this price I’ll sell it” price?

That’s the real question we won’t know the answer to until it happens.

It’s likely we will see rates in the 3-4 range 6-8 months before the next presidential election. I’ll go on record. I bet this will re inflate things.

It’s all political
100k based on the high market prices when this thread started and homes were selling for record prices with folks panicking trying to buy almost anything. I honestly think if we looked at all the sales 3 months ago and then looked at sales in 12 months from now there will be a 100k or more in price differences for those high priced homes, I doubt the lower cost homes in the 500k range will drop nearly that much maybe 50k but from what I am seeing in the start of price cuts a few weeks ago it is picking up steam but who knows until it happens or not.
I hope you are right with the 3-4 range I am praying conservatives control the houses making dumbledorf a lame duck president until 24.
 

HB2Havasu

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In SW Riverside County there were 199 homes for sale last week. This same week last year, there were 391. Interesting.

Just got a VA appraisal in at $25k over ask.
I’m guessing a lot of people who would normally be listing are staying put because of the doubling of interest rates this year. You get a lot less of a house when yore paying 6.5% -vs- 3% !
 

LargeOrangeFont

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100k based on the high market prices when this thread started and homes were selling for record prices with folks panicking trying to buy almost anything. I honestly think if we looked at all the sales 3 months ago and then looked at sales in 12 months from now there will be a 100k or more in price differences for those high priced homes, I doubt the lower cost homes in the 500k range will drop nearly that much maybe 50k but from what I am seeing in the start of price cuts a few weeks ago it is picking up steam but who knows until it happens or not.
I hope you are right with the 3-4 range I am praying conservatives control the houses making dumbledorf a lame duck president until 24.

You realize that is what we’ve all been saying when we say “covid gains will be given back”. If that is your stance we are all saying the same thing.

My house in Havasu is in that lower range, and it went up $100k in the last 2.5 years. I’m not yet convinced I will give all that back, but maybe. That would be a little over 20% drop at that price point which I have not seen anyone say is out of the realm of possibility for the medium term.. not next month or 90 days away.
 

PaPaG

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You realize that is what we’ve all been saying when we say “covid gains will be given back”. If that is your stance we are all saying the same thing.

My house in Havasu is in that lower range, and it went up $100k in the last 2.5 years. I’m not yet convinced I will give all that back, but maybe. That would be a little over 20% drop at that price point which I have not seen anyone say is out of the realm of possibility for the medium term.. not next month or 90 days away.
Yes I understand Covid gains, but here was and is my main point and I think you may agree. I feel 100k in any circumstance is HUGE, If I can sell a property for 100k more vs 100k less that is huge in my book. Same reversed, if I can buy a house for 100k less than what it was selling for during the buying frenzy it is worth waiting for. The same goes for stock market investments, 100k loss or gain is huge. In my opinion the interest rates doubling/almost tripling with interest payment portion now at least double of what it was along with covid basically becoming a non panic/pandemic issue prices are going to drop as they are.

I do understand your point and it has always been my belief as well that home prices do not matter unless you were in the market to buy or sell. My intention was to warn anyone wanting to buy because I believed the market signs and data were that the 100k+ drop in over priced covid gain panic buying is happening. I never stated the covid gain verbiage but we all knew it is part of the equation of the price run up.
 

Uncle Dave

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Yup and a lot of people bought prior to 2020/2021 so sitting on nice low rates and payments.

Or at least re-fi'd while the once in lifetime rates were available.

If one fucked about and didn't do it - its on them.

People got lazy and thought almost free money would last forever. It never does.
 
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evantwheeler

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If the FED wants to control inflation it needs to do something about energy prices. I don't think many understand the effect of energy prices on literally every single thing in our lives. I think energy prices has more effect on inflation than all the free money of the past couple years.
 
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Englewood

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Fed rate, Mortgage rates, fuel, and food will all be down in time to look like heroes come Nov 2024.

Im typically not a conspiracy theorist, but Biden is going down fast!!! Pelosi/Kumala come in and rescue everything then run for re-election....God I hope Im wrong.
 

Looking Glass

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Fed rate, Mortgage rates, fuel, and food will all be down in time to look like heroes come Nov 2024.

Im typically not a conspiracy theorist, but Biden is going down fast!!! Pelosi/Kumala come in and rescue everything then run for re-election....God I hope Im wrong.


Crime will still be out of control, and that is All on the "DIM's"
 

TCHB

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Cheap credit helped fuel the home prices. I think we will see at least a 20% to 30% drop off the highs In Havasu In 24 months.
 

pronstar

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If the FED wants to control inflation it needs to do something about energy prices. I don't think many understand the effect of energy prices on literally every single thing in our lives. I think energy prices has more effect on inflation than all the free money of the past couple years.
The Fed has zero tools to counter supply-side shortages.

And honestly, the only tools the .gov has:
- price controls, we don’t want this
- remove barriers so we can tap into our own energy, but this administration won’t do this
- beg countries that hate us to increase supply and lower profits per barrel, why would they do this?
 

evantwheeler

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The Fed has zero tools to counter supply-side shortages.

And honestly, the only tools the .gov has:
- price controls, we don’t want this
- remove barriers so we can tap into our own energy, but this administration won’t do this
- beg countries that hate us to increase supply and lower profits per barrel, why would they do this?

I dont care what the reasons are, the fact is energy is the only thing that keeps civil society civil. Every 1st world society functions solely on the consumption of resources and conversion of energy to manipulate materials from one form to another. Every single step of the way from resource exploration & identification to resource extraction to 1st level processing to secondary processing/ manufacturing, to putting it in front of the end user takes energy. Diesel fuel, electricity, and gasoline, those are your inputs options, that is it! Once we cannot afford the cost of energy input, things will deteriorate extremely rapidly. Like on the order of magnitude of days. The #1 goal of our government should be production & protection of energy inputs because without that, we have nothing.

Between Canada & the US, we have the ability to provide & control our own energy supply. If politicians don't wake up, they'll fucking starve with the rest of us. Maybe that's what they want.
 
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RVRKID

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So lets see you back peddle out of this fact. I know I know Nothing to see here, all gloom and doom, false facts and garbage, interest payment is not double lol lol...If you cannot figure it out I suggest taking 3rd grade math once again. I will wait for you to answer :)

If you borrow $500,000.00 at 2.50% for 30.00 years, your monthly payment will be $1,975.60. Your payment on interest will be $211,217.62 over the term of the loan. Monthly payment on interest portion is $1041.00
If you borrow $500,000.00 at 6.00% for 30.00 years, your monthly payment will be $2,997.75. Your payment on interest will be $579,190.95 over the term of the loan.
Monthly payment on interest portion is $2500.00. I hope that cleared it up for the folks that wrongly said payments won't be double or more on interest.
I'm just wondering when 2.5% doubled comes out to 6.00%, wouldn't that be 5.00% which would drop a whole 1.00% off your math or is this how interest rates work when doubling?
 

JLG614

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100k based on a closed comparable?
or the “ if someone will buy it for this price I’ll sell it” price?

That’s the real question we won’t know the answer to until it happens.

It’s likely we will see rates in the 3-4 range 6-8 months before the next presidential election. I’ll go on record. I bet this will re inflate things.

It’s all political

I 100% agree with this. Shit will probably keep coming down through 2023, how much who knows. But magically in the start of 2024 we will see a rocket in the market because of the fed and election. Its funny how fast people forget but it works for politics
 

530RL

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I 100% agree with this. Shit will probably keep coming down through 2023, how much who knows. But magically in the start of 2024 we will see a rocket in the market because of the fed and election. Its funny how fast people forget but it works for politics
Then you should know what to buy and when to buy it.

Easy peasy 👍👍
 

TCHB

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If the FED wants to control inflation it needs to do something about energy prices. I don't think many understand the effect of energy prices on literally every single thing in our lives. I think energy prices has more effect on inflation than all the free money of the past couple years.
I dont care what the reasons are, the fact is energy is the only thing that keeps civil society civil. Every 1st world society functions solely on the consumption of resources and conversion of energy to manipulate materials from one form to another. Every single step of the way from resource exploration & identification to resource extraction to 1st level processing to secondary processing/ manufacturing, to putting it in front of the end user takes energy. Diesel fuel, electricity, and gasoline, those are your inputs options, that is it! Once we cannot afford the cost of energy input, things will deteriorate extremely rapidly. Like on the order of magnitude of days. The #1 goal of our government should be production & protection of energy inputs because without that, we have nothing.

Between Canada & the US, we have the ability to provide & control our own energy supply. If politicians don't wake up, they'll fucking starve with the rest of us. Maybe that's what they OPEC doesn't have direct influence over American oil, but since the oil price is set by the global market and OPEC members produce about 40 percent of the world's crude oil, and export over 60 percent of total petroleum traded internationally, its policies indirectly affect prices in the U.S.
OPEC doesn't have direct influence over American oil, but since the oil price is set by the global market and OPEC members produce about 40 percent of the world's crude oil, and export over 60 percent of total petroleum traded internationally, its policies indirectly affect prices in the U.S.
 

pronstar

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I dont care what the reasons are, the fact is energy is the only thing that keeps civil society civil. Every 1st world society functions solely on the consumption of resources and conversion of energy to manipulate materials from one form to another. Every single step of the way from resource exploration & identification to resource extraction to 1st level processing to secondary processing/ manufacturing, to putting it in front of the end user takes energy. Diesel fuel, electricity, and gasoline, those are your inputs options, that is it! Once we cannot afford the cost of energy input, things will deteriorate extremely rapidly. Like on the order of magnitude of days. The #1 goal of our government should be production & protection of energy inputs because without that, we have nothing.

Between Canada & the US, we have the ability to provide & control our own energy supply. If politicians don't wake up, they'll fucking starve with the rest of us. Maybe that's what they want.

I hear what you’re saying…I’m coming from the opposite side of the coin.

I don’t want government to “solve” anything.
If the .gov nationalized energy, it would be a disaster for the free market economy, and it puts us squarely on the socialism track.

All of today’s economic problems - all of them - were yesterday’s economic solutions, brought to you by the .gov

IMHO, the .gov needs to stop meddling, free market needs to work these distortions out.
 

evantwheeler

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I hear what you’re saying…I’m coming from the opposite side of the coin.

I don’t want government to “solve” anything.
If the .gov nationalized energy, it would be a disaster for the free market economy, and it puts us squarely on the socialism track.

All of today’s economic problems - all of them - were yesterday’s economic solutions, brought to you by the .gov

IMHO, the .gov needs to stop meddling, free market needs to work these distortions out.
Yes, stop meddling and let oil companies drill and build those pipelines. Put people to work. Build infrastructure. Government needs to do their job by getting out of the way in this case.
 

PaPaG

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I'm just wondering when 2.5% doubled comes out to 6.00%, wouldn't that be 5.00% which would drop a whole 1.00% off your math or is this how interest rates work when doubling?
Over double. I had estimated 3% then looked at dates and it was more like 2.5% so over double. And when originally posted it was closer to double now going soon to TRIPLE. Stating double or more is there.
 

TCHB

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Yes, stop meddling and let oil companies drill and build those pipelines. Put people to work. Build infrastructure. Government needs to do their job by getting out of the way in this case.
Why would they invest Capital money to lower the cost of their products? During the pandemic Exxon said it was giving oil away because storage tanks were full.
 
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FishSniper

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I'm just wondering when 2.5% doubled comes out to 6.00%, wouldn't that be 5.00% which would drop a whole 1.00% off your math or is this how interest rates work when doubling?
It works however he tries to spin it to fit his agenda. His first post about the payment doubling was debunked by Englewood so he tried to change it and this is what he came up with. Much like the liberal media keep spewing bs hoping it fits their agenda.
 

PaPaG

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It works however he tries to spin it to fit his agenda. His first post about the payment doubling was debunked by Englewood so he tried to change it and this is what he came up with. Much like the liberal media keep spewing bs hoping it fits their agenda.
I thought you put me on ignore Mr. Cry baby. Facts are Facts, I said double payments and that is in regards to interest as one of my main reasons housing sales are slowing and prices are dropping, (not to mention ALL the other reasons), If I have to spell it out for you I think you better go back to grade school and retake both a reading class and some math courses. You are a special kind of tool, you spout like a typical liberal idiot that spews his garbage when proven wrong. Again if for your simple minded reading and math course I will say it again, 1+1=2...LOL
 

RVRKID

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I thought you put me on ignore Mr. Cry baby. Facts are Facts, I said double payments and that is in regards to interest as one of my main reasons housing sales are slowing and prices are dropping, (not to mention ALL the other reasons), If I have to spell it out for you I think you better go back to grade school and retake both a reading class and some math courses. You are a special kind of tool, you spout like a typical liberal idiot that spews his garbage when proven wrong. Again if for your simple minded reading and math course I will say it again, 1+1=2...LOL
Will you didn't do 1+1=2 just so you know, 2.5+2.5=5 not 6 but you seem to want to make it 6
 

PaPaG

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Will you didn't do 1+1=2 just so you know, 2.5+2.5=5 not 6 but you seem to want to make it 6
Seriously, I know that. 2.5 +2.5 is 5, 6% is higher than 2.5 + 2.5 again seriously. I thought RDers are much smarter than that and I did not have to go into exacts vs general news. Not saying you but some that just want to negate the facts that show interest payments are well over double cannot let go of the fact that they are now paying DOUBLE or MORE in interest payments, so payments have doubled or more...have no way of making even more clear to the naysayers and nit pickers. And the fact that housing sales and prices are dropping as was stated at the start of this thread. Excuses always come around, oh it was inflated prices, oh it was covid, oh this that, facts are facts home prices and sales are dropping and will devaluate due to the doubling or tripling of interest rates and payments going through the roof.
 

HNL2LHC

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Here is an interesting house on the market. Cute and clean with a fairly large lot that has been sitting. For all I know the quality of work might be lacking and the reason it is sitting. But they are certainly lowering the price aggressively…..

38EF52C7-5659-4901-A956-8C5404632436.jpeg
 

DrunkenSailor

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Sounds like Finance of America is closing wholesale and selling retail to guaranteed rate.
 

caribbean20

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Going to be interesting to see if property tax bills start going down based on these lower values. Not holding my breath.
 

monkeyswrench

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Well, I popped back into this thread for a little pick me up on a monsoon Monday out here...
And it's still just a little F'kn ray of sunshine 🤣

A page or so back, it was mentioned that there are about 500 homes on the market in Havasu. Then the question was posed how many were on the market in the last cycle.
Does anybody have an idea how many homes were constructed in between? As someone the pops in a couple times a year, it looks as if the actual number of homes has doubled!
If the city has increased in size 20% or more, than I'd think things are "correcting". From the outside looking in, less massive gains for sellers, as many others are trying to make gains before the unknown. People aren't broke, but seem to be more cautious. I think the interest rates have pushed the "monthly" a bit higher, and cut out some of those on the fence when comes to buying a second home.
 

Looking Glass

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I 100% agree with this. Shit will probably keep coming down through 2023, how much who knows. But magically in the start of 2024 we will see a rocket in the market because of the fed and election. Its funny how fast people forget but it works for politics



And there will be People who will "Buy It" and just skip on through Life, Happy All Is Well AGAIN!!
 
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