For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[2Driver]

My realtor sends me weekly market data. Far outlying areas outside the Phx metro area where mass developments are going in are eroding very fast.

Buckeye had a 376% increase in supply from this time last year. In the next 2 weeks Buckeye and Queen Creek will have more supply than buyers ie buyers market.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

You tell me. You're the oracle.

Investors buying thousands of Phoenix-area homes as rent prices spike

Tenants say the result is rising rent prices, but economists say they’re not so sure investors are to blame.

www.azfamily.com

If they bought a home 2-5 years ago and have made 100-150%, a 30% cut still leaves them with a 70-100% gain in that short time period. It's still a deal if you're in a hurry to get out.

Here is what I’ll tell you, from your own source no less.

30%+ of homes sold to investors in a single quarter last year does not mean 38% of all homes in the Phoenix area are owned by investors.

 

[FROGMAN524]

Here is what I’ll tell you, from your own source no less.

30%+ of homes sold to investors in a single quarter last year does not mean 38% of all homes in the Phoenix area are owned by investors.

Different source, give me time, I'll find it.

How else would you explain the constant contact from these people via calls, texts and snail mail? I live in Phoenix and get all of the 3 I mentioned daily.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Different source, give me time, I'll find it.

How else would you explain the constant contact from these people via calls, texts and snail mail? I live in Phoenix and get all of the 3 I mentioned daily.

It is called lead generation. I’ve been getting all that weekly for 6 years from my AZ and CA addresses. As prices go up, the marketing has stepped up.

For the last 2.5 years you’ve probably got the same level of marketing to refi your home as you have to sell it.

It’s going to drop off a bunch, Zillow and others have scrapped their purchase programs because they lost their asses. The low ballers making cash offers to people with crappy houses or that need to move ASAP are still around.

 

[Cdog]

Funny how California is being talked about in this thread when so many other markets are in much worse shape of being overvalued and primed for a correction outside of CA like Phoenix, SLC, Boise, Austin, Charlotte, Atlanta. Fort Myers, etc... Yet here we are talking about how CA is "fucked" lol. It looks like all the places Californians ran to are in for the biggest correction.. I know, now I'm being the dick and everyone is gonna get all offended... That's life

I hope you're right about Phoenix. I'd love an opportunity to buy a couple more short sale rentals and ride the next wave. It's going to come down to income and jobs. Which doesn't fare well for California and affordable housing.

Interesting that we have seen in this cycle is the people moving away from California and their equity gains in markets outside of California gaining over the areas they left in California. I think we have finally seen areas like Phoenix Utah and Vegas grow to become their own markets and not just sub markets to California like they have been in the past cycles. But that does not mean some of that will not revert or there will not be hurdles to overcome in places like Phoenix.

But it is rather obvious that people have decided the quality of life is not favorable in places like California unless you inherit property or our part of the lucky sperm club.

Everyone I know that is still there wants out.

 

[bilz]

I have lived a pretty descent life in ca. Got a good govt pension. But when you are taxed for something that isn't getting done, you get tired of it. 60$ for a quad and they keep shutting down place to ride.Don't really give a dam about housing prices cuz I'm gonna die in mine. High prices used to keep the riff raff away until they figured out they could stuff 3 families into a 3- 1 rental.

 

[Wheeler]

The low ballers making cash offers to people with crappy houses or that need to move ASAP are still around.

Most anytime I turn on the TV I see "Andrew the Home Buyer" pimpin out his services and spewing his shtick

I'd rather see the husband and wife team. ... well almost.

 

[Dan Lorenze]

But it is rather obvious that people have decided the quality of life is not favorable in places like California unless you inherit property or our part of the lucky sperm club.

Everyone I know that is still there wants out.

I know it blows people away that I actually like where I live. The quality of life where I live in Ventura county is actually great. I've got a great career that I enjoy, the money keeps coming in and my house keeps increasing in value. I've got everything and everyone here I need. Did I mention the amazing weather? Right now it's 80 and I've got a nice ocean breeze flowing through the house. Things could be worse.. Funny, we use the term "lucky sperm" too... lol Not for me, unfortunately I have to make my own money.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I know it blows people away that I actually like where I live. The quality of life where I live in Ventura county is actually great. I've got a great career that I enjoy, the money keeps coming in and my house keeps increasing in value. I've got everything and everyone here I need. Did I mention the amazing weather? Right now it's 80 and I've got a nice ocean breeze flowing through the house. Things could be worse.. Funny, we use the term "lucky sperm" too... lol Not for me, unfortunately I have to make my own money.

Enjoy !

 

[HBCraig]

“And nobody on RDP hangs out in the channel either.”

Just the ones in the DCLB's.

Ole Havasu Hangin would be proud I pulled that.

 

[HBCraig]

Funny how California is being talked about in this thread when so many other markets are in much worse shape of being overvalued and primed for a correction outside of CA like Phoenix, SLC, Boise, Austin, Charlotte, Atlanta. Fort Myers, etc... Yet here we are talking about how CA is "fucked" lol. It looks like all the places Californians ran to are in for the biggest correction.. I know, now I'm being the dick and everyone is gonna get all offended... That's life

I can only speak to my area in the OC. But, when the 2007 crash happened only 5 cities didn't experience a loss in value
Newport Beach
Irvine
Laguna Beach
CDM
Huntington Beach.

I don't see these 5 cities really taking a drastic downturn

 

[Wheeler]

I know it blows people away that I actually like where I live. The quality of life where I live in Ventura county is actually great. I've got a great career that I enjoy, the money keeps coming in and my house keeps increasing in value. I've got everything and everyone here I need. Did I mention the amazing weather? Right now it's 80 and I've got a nice ocean breeze flowing through the house. Things could be worse.. Funny, we use the term "lucky sperm" too... lol Not for me, unfortunately I have to make my own money.

Thank God and Howard for prop 13,eh.

 

[Cdog]

I know it blows people away that I actually like where I live. The quality of life where I live in Ventura county is actually great. I've got a great career that I enjoy, the money keeps coming in and my house keeps increasing in value. I've got everything and everyone here I need. Did I mention the amazing weather? Right now it's 80 and I've got a nice ocean breeze flowing through the house. Things could be worse.. Funny, we use the term "lucky sperm" too... lol Not for me, unfortunately I have to make my own money.

I'm happy for you. I still have love for OC and SD. Central coast from Venture to Monterey. For a lot of people it's not what is is for you though...

 

[mbrown2]

I can only speak to my area in the OC. But, when the 2007 crash happened only 5 cities didn't experience a loss in value
Newport Beach
Irvine
Laguna Beach
CDM
Huntington Beach.

I don't see these 5 cities really taking a drastic downturn

Not exactly....They did fall, but they fell last and came back first...those cities normally happen that way... I bought in downtown HB a foreclosure during 2011.... A DR owned it...he paid 1.4 in in 2006, owed 1.1 in 2011..similar places were selling for 900k during that time.......His new wife wanted something newer in SeaCliff...so what did he do (like a lot of others during that time) he bought the place in SeaCliff and walked away from his current home, probably figured his credit would be back in 5 yrs...We offered 700K to bank and they accepted.......now probably worth 2M...don't really know, don't really care...love it here, not moving anytime soon......wish everyone well wherever they call home...

 

[PaPaG]

The title of the thread

For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS​

Followed up by Chase laying off 1,000 employees that on a quick google search make between 30-50k.

With next to nothing in debt, a 3% mortgage and 55k in household income the buyer could afford roughly a 300k loan. That would include taxes, insurance etc.

View attachment 1128943

Here’s the average cost of a home in the US. Obviously there’s extremes to these numbers but going off of the averages these people who were just laid off would have needed to bring 80k to the table to buy a home (pre Covid).

But the Refi boom didn’t happen until 2019-2020, so you could argue they were never employed by Chase either.

But assuming these people were able to buy a home in the last 2-3 years, there are thousands of job openings that would allow them to continue to pay their mortgage. My “were fucked” comment was in jest. While it sucks that these people lost their jobs, they have not (at the current time) lost the ability to go find other work to pay their bills.

Haven’t had a good CA bashing thread in a while

And lets see the 2022 figures including this month, I bet it shows a downturn..

I find it funny that everyone thinks they have the economy figured out and they feel so compelled to teach everyone else about their economic wisdom.
The internet is full of know it all's.
Here is a perfect example.

For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

JP Morgan Chase just announced a layoff of at least 1000 people and more to come due to the drastic drop in both housing purchases credited to CRAZY HOUSING MARKET slowing correcting and the doubling of interest rates..Redfin, Realtor.com did the same...YOU'VE seen Nothing YET.......if you...

www.riverdavesplace.com

IT is called experience, not know it all. Facts have a funny way of flying by some folks heads until it is to late.

 

[MK1MOD0]

The zip code definitely makes a difference in home value stability. Some areas are much less volatile than others. In 08 we were living in Rancho Santa Fe. There was little to no softening on price in that era. The homes in our area held quite steady. If there was a difference, it was very small compared to total cost .

 

[C-2]

I know it blows people away that I actually like where I live. The quality of life where I live in Ventura county is actually great. I've got a great career that I enjoy, the money keeps coming in and my house keeps increasing in value. I've got everything and everyone here I need. Did I mention the amazing weather? Right now it's 80 and I've got a nice ocean breeze flowing through the house. Things could be worse.. Funny, we use the term "lucky sperm" too... lol Not for me, unfortunately I have to make my own money.

Same here.

My 25-year old Sheriff/jailer neighbor bought the house next door at the start of Covid. Currently he's buying a rental in Tx.

My other (then) 25-year old city worker neighbor, who's wife is in a wheelchair and they have a kid w/Leukemia, bought 5-years ago. They flipped some houses recently and are also buying rentals in Texas.

My 27-year old school teacher niece bought a condo in Long Beach this past summer.

Don't say it can't be done in CA,. They all have jobs that pay less than $100K (as I do, too).

When I was 26 we bought an affordable house in Riverside, and we bought a 1-acre lot in 2006. We don't need to cash out the $900K in equity and move to a desert state.

It wasn't luck or good fortune. It was due to buying a house to live in, not upgrading (staying put), and not keeping up with the Jones'.

I'm sure in another 20-years the kids next door on either side will also enjoy the same.

Unless of course, they follow RDP and discover how much their CA lives suck

Crash and burn Cali, makes no difference to us and tens of millions of other homeowners similarly situated.

 

[HBCraig]

Not exactly....They did fall, but they fell last and came back first...those cities normally happen that way... I bought in downtown HB a foreclosure during 2011.... A DR owned it...he paid 1.4 in in 2006, owed 1.1 in 2011..similar places were selling for 900k during that time.......His new wife wanted something newer in SeaCliff...so what did he do (like a lot of others during that time) he bought the place in SeaCliff and walked away from his current home, probably figured his credit would be back in 5 yrs...We offered 700K to bank and they accepted.......now probably worth 2M...don't really know, don't really care...love it here, not moving anytime soon......wish everyone well wherever they call home...

Well then, we'll have to hit Sushi on Fire soon.

 

[C-2]

The zip code definitely makes a difference in home value stability. Some areas are much less volatile than others. In 08 we were living in Rancho Santa Fe. There was little to no softening on price in that era. The homes in our area held quite steady. If there was a difference, it was very small compared to total cost .

I think RSF is the nicest area I have ever been to, and wifey would really like to move our horses there.

But we can't afford it; and we know that. We're cool with that reality.

I think many people never grasped that concept.

Cheers

 

[MK1MOD0]

Yeah. I’ve got some very good friends that are in the horse business. Boarding one in RSF is eye opening for sure ! Plus side, lots of equestrian trails.

 

[hallett21]

And lets see the 2022 figures including this month, I bet it shows a downturn..

IT is called experience, not know it all. Facts have a funny way of flying by some folks heads until it is to late.

Everyone just cruised on by the listing I posted that sold for 750 in august of 21. Currently listed at just shy of 900 and all they did was clean up the kitchen lol

 

[Raffit78]

He must not be getting his intel from this source.

 

[TCHB]

I can only speak to my area in the OC. But, when the 2007 crash happened only 5 cities didn't experience a loss in value
Newport Beach
Irvine
Laguna Beach
CDM
Huntington Beach.

I don't see these 5 cities really taking a drastic downturn

We lived in HB over 30 years. The last down turn was pretty short and the drop was nothing compared to other cities. During that time period we looked real close at Newport Coast but the price drop was very small and not much on the market. We decided to stay put in HB.

 

[Wheeler]

Not exactly....They did fall, but they fell last and came back first...those cities normally happen that way... I bought in downtown HB a foreclosure during 2011.... A DR owned it...he paid 1.4 in in 2006, owed 1.1 in 2011..similar places were selling for 900k during that time.......His new wife wanted something newer in SeaCliff...so what did he do (like a lot of others during that time) he bought the place in SeaCliff and walked away from his current home, probably figured his credit would be back in 5 yrs...We offered 700K to bank and they accepted.......now probably worth 2M...don't really know, don't really care...love it here, not moving anytime soon......wish everyone well wherever they call home...

I love the OC. What in the hell was I thinking when I left it for Arizona!

 

[mbrown2]

I love the OC. What in the hell was I thinking when I left it for Arizona!

Parker would REALY close if you left! take one for the team!

 

[Wheeler]

Parker would REALY close if you left! take one for the team!

And let River Mobster sit on my throne? I ain't gonna be no part of that! He can keep his sorry ass in Rio Linda, Loma Linda or even Buena Vista or whatever Linda he hails from just as long as it ain't Yorba Linda !

 

[Orange Juice]

I’m lost…….

Are people foreclosing or they cashing out?

 

[Wheeler]

I’m lost…….

Are people foreclosing or they cashing out?

I'm holding tight 'till next year when the snow birds return before I put my chit on the market.

 

[2Driver]

Nothing for sale in Prescott.

 

[Cdog]

Nothing for sale in Prescott.


View attachment 1129677

Those people are insane. A 50-60% price reduction and you’d still have to ask how the local economy supports the pricing.

 

[pronstar]

All you guys ready to pounce on real estate as rentals, are you concerned about the dumbfuckishness that was pulled by state and local govts regarding rents and evictions. I think especially in ca, newscum and company may try some more bs.

The state you buy in matters…landlord-friendly vs tenant-friendly

 

[PaPaG]

Exactly !

They had crazy refi boom for 3+ years so WAY to many bodies were added for the normal loan and real estate cycle.

OMG ! real estate is going back to 30-60 DOM and offers under asking : )

Just like it was for last 25 years before covid.

Real estate might go to zero but the data is the exact opposite of 2008. The only correlation is high home prices.

Exactly

I wonder why, if these geniuses have it figured out, they’re still posting on a boating forum and not on their 250’ Yacht in the Mediterranean.

How do you know they are not? lol

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

How do you know they are not? lol

No LAM threads.

 

[Skinny Tire AH]

How do you know they are not? lol

Simply economics. Somebody who has made “it” in the markets, isn’t on RiverDavesPlace offering investment advice for free.

If I’m wrong, won’t be the first time.

Are there ballers here that have successfully made good investments? Sure.

Point being, if there was a sure thing, sure enough to advise friends to jump in, we’d all be sitting with our toes in the sand, drinking mimosas.

 

[PaPaG]

Simply economics. Somebody who has made “it” in the markets, isn’t on RiverDavesPlace offering investment advice for free.

If I’m wrong, won’t be the first time.

Are there ballers here that have successfully made good investments? Sure.

Point being, if there was a sure thing, sure enough to advise friends to jump in, we’d all be sitting with our toes in the sand, drinking mimosas.

Never a sure thing that is for sure, but education, experience and track record gives a great edge up. I know of many ballers on the boards that is for sure that know how to do it right.

 

[HBCraig]

Nothing for sale in Prescott.


View attachment 1129677

Man, I love that area.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Drinking mimosas always coors light blue lable on weekends 2 fingers glass neat black label weekdays.

 

[DWC]

Simply economics. Somebody who has made “it” in the markets, isn’t on RiverDavesPlace offering investment advice for free.

If I’m wrong, won’t be the first time.

Are there ballers here that have successfully made good investments? Sure.

Point being, if there was a sure thing, sure enough to advise friends to jump in, we’d all be sitting with our toes in the sand, drinking mimosas.

Same as the signs on power poles or the tons of seminars to tell you how to make money. It’s a game. No one that’s really making money is gonna give advice on how to game the system. They take it for themselves.

 

[rivrrts429]

I largely stay out of these threads because they turn into a disastrous battle cry but, I did recognize one obvious theme glancing through the previous posts...

The worst prediction in this thread takes the housing market back to 2017/2018. I was still enjoying my position back then as I am today.

 

[Skinny Tire AH]

I largely stay out of these threads because they turn into a disastrous battle cry but, I did recognize one obvious theme glancing through the previous posts...

The worst prediction in this thread takes the housing market back to 2017/2018. I was still enjoying my position back then as I am today.

My entire point in the last couple weeks in these type threads is this-

We are truly in uncharted economic times. In my lifetime, I’ve seen the economy up and down, hi and low numerous times. In none of those, had the Government set these cycles in motion 100% with the intention of destroying the petro-economy. 100% of everything we touch, drive, wear, eat, clean with, including medicine. Is now and will continue to be effected by these fuel prices.

The long term, down range effects are not known and cannot be predicted, we’ve never been here.

So how can anyone have one single accurate assessment of what to invest in or where the housing market will go?

We’ve never had to complete for survival with the very folks who have their fingers on the economic thermostat.

Food shortages?
Building materials?
Gas lines?
Runs on the Banks?
Gun confiscation?
Property Confiscation?

What effect will 5-6 million illegals have? They all get phones and credit cards. What effect will that have?

What happens when they get amnesty? What happens when they vote?

These people are insidious and we, rank-and-file Americans mean nothing.

We are but widgets to be controlled. We are used for political divisions, we are used as a means to their ends.

And anyone thinks they can predict financial futures when THEY have changed the rules. Historically predictive data means nothing.

 

[rivrrts429]

My entire point in the last couple weeks in these type threads is this-

We are truly in uncharted economic times. In my lifetime, I’ve seen the economy up and down, hi and low numerous times. In none of those, had the Government set these cycles in motion 100% with the intention of destroying the petro-economy. 100% of everything we touch, drive, wear, eat, clean with, including medicine. Is now and will continue to be effected by these fuel prices.

The long term, down range effects are not known and cannot be predicted, we’ve never been here.

So how can anyone have one single accurate assessment of what to invest in or where the housing market will go?

We’ve never had to complete for survival with the very folks who have their fingers on the economic thermostat.

Every logical investment strategy we’ve ever followed is completely out the window today. The only litmus test I can logically compare is how this country responded to the early days of COVID.

The behavior half this country exhibited during that early period was a wake up call. When the government and its zombies go left I’m going right.

I’m fortunate in the fact that I’ve been in my home since the early 2000’s and never refinanced or pulled money. If the entire thing goes up in flames I’ll still have a roof over my head barring any outlandish outside influence.

Could this be the 70’s all over again? I don’t know

I take these PodCasts with a grain of salt but this is one possibility...

 

[Ace in the Hole]

And anyone thinks they can predict financial futures when THEY have changed the rules. Historically predictive data means nothing.

This....there isn't a single economic model that makes any sense anymore with what we are going though. Even the FED admits they are just throwing darts at a board hoping something works.

 

[DWC]

Every logical investment strategy we’ve ever followed is completely out the window today. The only litmus test I can logically compare is how this country responded to the early days of COVID.

The behavior half this country exhibited during that early period was a wake up call. When the government and its zombies go left I’m going right.

I’m fortunate in the fact that I’ve been in my home since the early 2000’s and never refinanced or pulled money. If the entire thing goes up in flames I’ll still have a roof over my head barring any outlandish outside influence.

Could this be the 70’s all over again? I don’t know

I take these PodCasts with a grain of salt but this is one possibility...

Same here but not ideal. We moved back to So Cal in mid-2000’s. Had the most expensive house in neighborhood for a decade. It was painful for awhile but worked out ok.
These podcasts peeps aren’t doing it for fun. They’re trying to get followers and clicks. The ones that really know are sitting in a penthouse laughing at us and doubling up. The money they’d make off of a podcast isn’t enough to get them out of bed.

 

[rivrrts429]

Same here but not ideal. We moved back to So Cal in mid-2000’s. Had the most expensive house in neighborhood for a decade. It was painful for awhile but worked out ok.
These podcasts peeps aren’t doing it for fun. They’re trying to get followers and clicks. The ones that really know are sitting in a penthouse laughing at us and doubling up. The money they’d make off of a podcast isn’t enough to get them out of bed.

100% agree. For every podcast there’s another ten that will take the opposite argument which is why I don’t put a whole lot of emphasis on them.

I can only control what I can control. I pulled completely out of the stock market and will limp along until I can see the forest through the trees.

I wish everyone good luck. It’ll be an interesting 90 days before we get a decent idea of what this looks like.

Bring back mean tweets

 

[TCHB]

Never a sure thing that is for sure, but education, experience and track record gives a great edge up. I know of many ballers on the boards that is for sure that know how to do it right.

100% agree. For every podcast there’s another ten that will take the opposite argument which is why I don’t put a whole lot of emphasis on them.

I can only control what I can control. I pulled completely out of the stock market and will limp along until I can see the forest through the trees.

I wish everyone good luck. It’ll be an interesting 90 days before we get a decent idea of what this looks like.

Bring back mean tweets

Starting to nibble back in.

 

[rivrrts429]

Starting to nibble back in.

Not a bad idea actually. I’m gonna see how the next 7-14 days go.

 

[stevesdcb]

Nothing for sale in Prescott.


View attachment 1129677

Currently live in Prescott, been here approximately 2 years, semi retired, work locally half time for local government.

A few observations: Yes, houses for sale but currently at California prices. Government pay in Prescott is 1/2 or less of what California pay is. Many businesses, including Government jobs don’t pay enough for younger folks, up & comers, the ability to afford or buy a house especially now combined with the high price of fuel, food, etc.

Pipeline of Californians coming into Prescott, escaping, mostly middle aged or retired that have cash to buy. Million dollar plus sales are very common & often occur within the first day or two of a listing. Californians have changed the whole economic housing structure of Prescott.

Many locals are not happy, they can’t compete monetarily.

What I make part time working my half time government job is chump money, walking around money, Can’t imagine having to make a house payment & support a family on such low pay.

As long as the great escape is occurring, Prescott will continue to have a unique housing market. Once again, cash is king.

 

[Havasu blue label]

same here bud play it smart you could be a winner

 

[2Driver]

Currently live in Prescott, been here approximately 2 years, semi retired, work locally half time for local government.

A few observations: Yes, houses for sale but currently at California prices. Government pay in Prescott is 1/2 or less of what California pay is. Many businesses, including Government jobs don’t pay enough for younger folks, up & comers, the ability to afford or buy a house especially now combined with the high price of fuel, food, etc.

Pipeline of Californians coming into Prescott, escaping, mostly middle aged or retired that have cash to buy. Million dollar plus sales are very common & often occur within the first day or two of a listing. Californians have changed the whole economic housing structure of Prescott.

Many locals are not happy, they can’t compete monetarily.

What I make part time working my half time government job is chump money, walking around money, Can’t imagine having to make a house payment & support a family on such low pay.

As long as the great escape is occurring, Prescott will continue to have a unique housing market. Once again, cash is king.

Yep as long as Cali holds up.
Weve been looking in Talking Rock for 2 years. We have literally found a house the day it went live and were called 1/2 way up I17 to turn around that it was sold.

We said screw it as there were about 4 homes for sale in that little community. There are now 23 homes and 44 lots for sale some with over 100k price reductions.

We may start looking again once things land.

 

[stevesdcb]

Yep as long as Cali holds up.
Weve been looking in Talking Rock for 2 years. We have literally found a house the day it went live and were called 1/2 way up I17 to turn around that it was sold.

We said screw it as there were about 4 homes for sale in that little community. There are now 23 homes and 44 lots for sale some with over 100k price reductions.

We may start looking again once things land.

I’m in Inscription Canyon, 2 minutes away from Talking Rock. Appears some peeps have already cashed out in California & are sitting locally in a rental waiting for something to pop. On the flip side, appears housing market in Prescott is slowing down. Hopefully, the hysteria inflated pricing BS has calmed down.

We like Inscription Canyon a lot but there are some really cool other areas. Recently discovered a canyon on the west side of Willow Creek road, think it’s called Stone Gate, smaller 1 plus acre lots, nice pads in there.

Good luck & keep me posted.