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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

hallett21

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My buddy was making 40k a month. He is now unemployed and doing side jobs building Ikea furniture on that FixMe app. Fucking Brutal. They did strictly mortgage refi.
Ouch

Edit.

You’d think you would be funding another business for when rates corrected.
 

Cole Trickle

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My buddy was making 40k a month. He is now unemployed and doing side jobs building Ikea furniture on that FixMe app. Fucking Brutal. They did strictly mortgage refi.
Freaks me out that people don't see the swings coming.

500k a year and now works for pennys. How about saving 200k a year for a couple of those years...lol

I actually was wondering what the guy i used for a refi 2 years ago is doing now. He had no education but was very good at his job and had a team to get things done fast. Easily the best refi experience i have ever had. 2.5 years ago he was showing me pictures of his 400k backyard build in temecula. He called me about a year ago asking if i needed any help with a refi as they were basically dead from the pandemic numbers. I fear he might have bit off a little more than he can chew spending like most do. :(

It's going to get a bunch worse before it gets better unless the gov creates artificial interest rates again.
 

Havasu blue label

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Freaks me out that people don't see the swings coming.

500k a year and now works for pennys. How about saving 200k a year for a couple of those years...lol

I actually was wondering what the guy i used for a refi 2 years ago is doing now. He had no education but was very good at his job and had a team to get things done fast. Easily the best refi experience i have ever had. 2.5 years ago he was showing me pictures of his 400k backyard build in temecula. He called me about a year ago asking if i needed any help with a refi as they were basically dead from the pandemic numbers. I fear he might have bit off a little more than he can chew spending like most do. :(

It's going to get a bunch worse before it gets better unless the gov creates artificial interest rates again.
They think it will last forever I have a neighbor young family moved in to the neighborhood 1.5 loan agent Benz Tesla and a g wagon and a spendy life style they will learn fast
 

Done-it-again

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Freaks me out that people don't see the swings coming.

500k a year and now works for pennys. How about saving 200k a year for a couple of those years...lol

I actually was wondering what the guy i used for a refi 2 years ago is doing now. He had no education but was very good at his job and had a team to get things done fast. Easily the best refi experience i have ever had. 2.5 years ago he was showing me pictures of his 400k backyard build in temecula. He called me about a year ago asking if i needed any help with a refi as they were basically dead from the pandemic numbers. I fear he might have bit off a little more than he can chew spending like most do. :(

It's going to get a bunch worse before it gets better unless the gov creates artificial interest rates again.

I feel no sorrow for these guys..... they all jump in the game making big money for not a lot of work. Then when shit hits the fan they cry and have no money. Learn to save a little for the slow times...
 

Not So Fast

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See it all the time in Havasu especially, guys pulling a $300,00 boat with a rig/truck that costs over $100K and I wonder what they do for a living. Probably just bougfht a house in the Foothill Estates area too.
Being an old retired Operating Engineer that never made even close to what some of these young bucks are apparenlty making, I just wonder ya know ??
NSF
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I feel no sorrow for these guys..... they all jump in the game making big money for not a lot of work. Then when shit hits the fan they cry and have no money. Learn to save a little for the slow times...

This x1000. They made the choice, live with it.

It is a lifestyle choice. You have the feast or famine types like this that go from the highs to the lows throughout their life, the “Ballin on a Budget” types that are smart with money and don’t get into too much trouble, and the Scrooges that don’t spend a penny.

In the end it really is a philosophical question… how much stress and pain do you want to endure to enjoy the absolute unbridled heights of whatever success you attained.

The converse is you can’t take any of it with you when you die.

There is a balance in there.
 
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EmpirE231

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I'd hope anyone in the loan business the last 4-5 years had been socking away a lot of money for the rainy days. same goes for real estate agents, contractors etc

one of my wife's patients asked her to pray for her the other day... in the loan biz and only has closed 2 deals since June. We deal with a lot of loan and real estate people @ my work and all of them are reporting back that business is either dead or dragging along at a snails pace.
 

Cole Trickle

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I'd hope anyone in the loan business the last 4-5 years had been socking away a lot of money for the rainy days. same goes for real estate agents, contractors etc

one of my wife's patients asked her to pray for her the other day... in the loan biz and only has closed 2 deals since June. We deal with a lot of loan and real estate people @ my work and all of them are reporting back that business is either dead or dragging along at a snails pace.

I have never had to worry about anything remotely close to 40k a month in the insurance game but the good news is its steady when times get tough...haha

Homeowners is all but dead right now. Seems the only quotes I get are people selling there city homes and leaving the state or buying in the boonies and I struggle as we don't write high brush.

Auto is weird with mercury basically trying not to write new biz.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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They think it will last forever I have a neighbor young family moved in to the neighborhood 1.5 loan agent Benz Tesla and a g wagon and a spendy life style they will learn fast

I learned the last go around....lost the huge home in a gated community and the Escalade....kept the boat through the recession though! I have lived really cheap since 2008 and have saved more than we spent. I had some big deals this year, but my volume is definitely off. I have been trading stocks the last half of the year and using that money for our bills mostly. My phones have just started ringing with multiple people wanting to sell though so I think next year will be quite good. I'm focused on leaving San Diego for Temecula as well as buying a home in Texas. I believe the schools are better in Temecula and for sure the sheriff is very good. Homeless is driving me nuts and the schools are all crap.
 

Bpracing1127

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Friend of mine in KY is a real estate agent. And his year so far is 1/2 of last year. He is supplementing his income by air bnb that he keeps buying.
 

EmpirE231

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I have never had to worry about anything remotely close to 40k a month in the insurance game but the good news is its steady when times get tough...haha

Homeowners is all but dead right now. Seems the only quotes I get are people selling there city homes and leaving the state or buying in the boonies and I struggle as we don't write high brush.

Auto is weird with mercury basically trying not to write new biz.

These insurance premium commissions are peanuts compared to the real estate and loan game.

Biz is way off... doing about 1/2 the mount of apps we were doing from just 3-4 months ago. The whole industry is in gridlock and does not want to write business until they get their rate increases, and their reinsurance secured. quotes take 4-5X more work just to try and find a fit for clients, but getting trickier every week that goes by. I'm assuming there will be more layoffs in the insurance carrier side. Gonna see a lot of smaller agencies close up shop or sell / consolidate.
 

Havasu blue label

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See it all the time in Havasu especially, guys pulling a $300,00 boat with a rig/truck that costs over $100K and I wonder what they do for a living. Probably just bougfht a house in the Foothill Estates area too.
Being an old retired Operating Engineer that never made even close to what some of these young bucks are apparenlty making, I just wonder ya know ??
NSF
We say the same thing shit and I thought we comfortable but those guys make major bank
 

Cole Trickle

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These insurance premium commissions are peanuts compared to the real estate and loan game.

Biz is way off... doing about 1/2 the mount of apps we were doing from just 3-4 months ago. The whole industry is in gridlock and does not want to write business until they get their rate increases, and their reinsurance secured. quotes take 4-5X more work just to try and find a fit for clients, but getting trickier every week that goes by. I'm assuming there will be more layoffs in the insurance carrier side. Gonna see a lot of smaller agencies close up shop or sell / consolidate.
I think the insurance carriers are already running skeleton crews post covid. I'm not sure they are able to hire quality people for what they would consider fair $$$. We are seeing 2-3+ week turnaround times for endorsements and new policy issuance.

We are getting fought daily on mileage its a complete pita...

We are kind of business as normal as we are more a retention house than a new biz house. Would not be a great business to get into today unless you wanted to grind and work 24/7 for a ton of years. Way to much competition and commissions seem to be squezzed yearly.
 

Orange Juice

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See it all the time in Havasu especially, guys pulling a $300,00 boat with a rig/truck that costs over $100K and I wonder what they do for a living. Probably just bougfht a house in the Foothill Estates area too.
Being an old retired Operating Engineer that never made even close to what some of these young bucks are apparenlty making, I just wonder ya know ??
NSF

I‘m in my 60’s now. I’ve watched with amazement, friends and family roller coaster through life. The only people getting hurt are the kids that struggle to live that fake life style, their parent tried to achieve. 😉
 

monkeyswrench

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Just don’t have very far to fall when you’re at the bottom like me.😊
After my wreck, and subsequent fuckery, my friend looked at me and said these words:
"The only place you have to look is up."

That's not so bad. When I got my teeth kicked in the last go around, same words came to mind.
 

gqchris

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This x1000. They made the choice, live with it.

It is a lifestyle choice. You have the feast or famine types like this that go from the highs to the lows throughout their life, the “Ballin on a Budget” types that are smart with money and don’t get into too much trouble, and the Scrooges that don’t spend a penny.

In the end it really is a philosophical question… how much stress and pain do you want to endure to enjoy the absolute unbridled heights of whatever success you attained.

The converse is you can’t take any of it with you when you die.

There is a balance in there.
Yup, my buddy is great to be around and party with. But thats what that circle of friends are to me (well at least before I had a baby! LOL) . They have been in that industry since the Quickloan Funding, Daniel Sadek days. They ONLY know that biz, although they dabbled in debt consolidation last down swing and also Loan Mods with an attorney, both failed.

They hit Vegas/Miami every weekend. Even to this day. Know all the VIP hosts. But never save a dime. They own nothing, live for the moment. Dont care.

Two of them could not attend a beer fest a few months back in Ensenada with us. Why? They could not get passports due to not filing taxes in over 15 years! The US govt blackballed them!! We were all busting up! Again, 40-60k a MONTH! Not a pot to piss in.

Would stress me the hell out, no way I could live like that. And yes, they have family and young kids!
 
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gqchris

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I learned the last go around....lost the huge home in a gated community and the Escalade....kept the boat through the recession though! I have lived really cheap since 2008 and have saved more than we spent. I had some big deals this year, but my volume is definitely off. I have been trading stocks the last half of the year and using that money for our bills mostly. My phones have just started ringing with multiple people wanting to sell though so I think next year will be quite good. I'm focused on leaving San Diego for Temecula as well as buying a home in Texas. I believe the schools are better in Temecula and for sure the sheriff is very good. Hoymeless is driving me nuts and the schools are all crap.
Always love your honesty CCC and thanks for being the voice of reason from that side of the business! If I ever buy in that area Id ring you first!
 

hallett21

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Yup, my buddy is great to be around and party with. But thats what that circle of friends are to me (well at least before I had a baby! LOL) . They have been in that industry since the Quickloan Funding, Daniel Sadek days. They ONLY know that biz, although they dabbled in debt consolidation last down swing and also Loan Mods with an attorney, both failed.

They hit Vegas/Miami every weekend. Even to this day. Know all the VIP hosts. But never save a dime. They own nothing, live for the moment. Dont care.

Two of them could not attend a beer fest a few months back in Ensenada with us. Why? They could not get passports due to not filing taxes in over 15 years! The US govt blackballed them!! We were all busting up! Again, 40-60k a MONTH! Not a pot to piss in.

Would stress me the hell out, no way I could live like that. And yes, they have family and young kids!
I was gonna say taxes are another killer for those in sales who can’t run business through a corp.

But hey if you don’t pay them Party on Garth lol
 

regor

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At the instruction of the Board of Directors of United Furniture Industries, Inc., and all subsidiaries (the “Company”), we regret to inform you that due to unforeseen business circumstances the Company has been forced to make the difficult decision to terminate the employment of all its employees, effective immediately, on November 21, 2022, with the exception of over-the-road drivers that are out on delivery. Your layoff from the Company is expected to be permanent and all benefits will be terminated immediately without provision of COBRA.

Over-the-road drivers that are out on delivery will be paid for the balance of the week. Whether or not you have completed your delivery, please immediately return equipment, inventory, and delivery documents for those deliveries that have been completed to one of the following locations: Winston-Salem, N.C., Verona, Miss., or Victorville, Calif. location. To be clear, do not complete any additional deliveries.

We regret that this difficult and unexpected situation has made this necessary. Additional information will be provided shortly.

Thank you for your service and dedication.
UFI/Lane Corporate Communications”
 

zhandfull

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At the instruction of the Board of Directors of United Furniture Industries, Inc., and all subsidiaries (the “Company”), we regret to inform you that due to unforeseen business circumstances the Company has been forced to make the difficult decision to terminate the employment of all its employees, effective immediately, on November 21, 2022, with the exception of over-the-road drivers that are out on delivery. Your layoff from the Company is expected to be permanent and all benefits will be terminated immediately without provision of COBRA.

Over-the-road drivers that are out on delivery will be paid for the balance of the week. Whether or not you have completed your delivery, please immediately return equipment, inventory, and delivery documents for those deliveries that have been completed to one of the following locations: Winston-Salem, N.C., Verona, Miss., or Victorville, Calif. location. To be clear, do not complete any additional deliveries.

We regret that this difficult and unexpected situation has made this necessary. Additional information will be provided shortly.

Thank you for your service and dedication.
UFI/Lane Corporate Communications”
Keep posting this shit and we’re going to have to wake up LOF!
 

LargeOrangeFont

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In what reality?

Whatever numbers you believe or don’t believe we are not even close yet. We were at 5% in late 2007.

We were at almost 10% in 2009 when RE collapsed.

RE prices bottomed 2-3 years after that. Even if we say we are going to go through a down cycle twice as fast.. we have at least 2 years to go before it will be time to buy RE.

By any stretch we are still in the very early innings. But sure you can count the job losses by the thousand on the way down for another year.

If you have been waiting for the last 8 years for the sky to fall, you want to see job losses in the hundreds of thousands. Some baristas, mortgage brokers, Facebook employees and furniture makers are not going to cut it.

Restraints are still packed, retails stores are still overflowing with consumers.
 

monkeyswrench

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Whatever numbers you believe or don’t believe we are not even close yet. We were at 5% in late 2007.

We were at almost 10% in 2009 when RE collapsed.

RE prices bottomed 2-3 years after that. Even if we say we are going to go through a down cycle twice as fast.. we have at least 2 years to go before it will be time to buy RE.

By any stretch we are still in the very early innings. But sure you can count the job losses by the thousand on the way down for another year.

If you have been waiting for the last 8 years for the sky to fall, you want to see job losses in the hundreds of thousands. Some baristas, mortgage brokers, Facebook employees and furniture makers are not going to cut it.

Restraints are still packed, retails stores are still overflowing with consumers.
If the "Restraints" are packed, we have way more issues...
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Ideological restraints and financial restraints aren't as cutting or painful as handcuffs...or zipties for that matter.

They are even more so. The cutting and pain just grows slowly over time. So slow you don’t notice until it too late.
 

monkeyswrench

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They are even more so. The cutting and pain just grows slowly over time. So slow you don’t notice until it too late.
Spoken like someone who has worries more of finance than that of physical pain. I've been through a bit of both.

The question is, how much of either can be endured by the average American? Who will simply roll over?
 

PaPaG

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At the instruction of the Board of Directors of United Furniture Industries, Inc., and all subsidiaries (the “Company”), we regret to inform you that due to unforeseen business circumstances the Company has been forced to make the difficult decision to terminate the employment of all its employees, effective immediately, on November 21, 2022, with the exception of over-the-road drivers that are out on delivery. Your layoff from the Company is expected to be permanent and all benefits will be terminated immediately without provision of COBRA.

Over-the-road drivers that are out on delivery will be paid for the balance of the week. Whether or not you have completed your delivery, please immediately return equipment, inventory, and delivery documents for those deliveries that have been completed to one of the following locations: Winston-Salem, N.C., Verona, Miss., or Victorville, Calif. location. To be clear, do not complete any additional deliveries.

We regret that this difficult and unexpected situation has made this necessary. Additional information will be provided shortly.

Thank you for your service and dedication.
UFI/Lane Corporate Communications”
And the naysayers will continue to say all is OK. Everyday we see more and more lay offs and as we enter a recession and only going to get worse...(as of last week I think we are officially in a recession by historic standards since the 30 year bond rates inverted with the 1 month total sign of a recession).
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Exactly Bonesfab... With 62% of the workforce that pulled out of looking for a job numbers are skewed and so far out of whack, if all that were able to work and reentered the workforce or attempted to do so we would be more like 10-15% unemployment rate if not more.

That skew is always present however.. they haven’t counted people that have stopped looking for employment for as long as I am aware. We were probably over 20% real unemployment in 2009.

Look around… we simply are not there yet.. if we even do get there. We need months of hundreds of thousands of job losses to get there.
 

monkeyswrench

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Exactly Bonesfab... With 62% of the workforce that pulled out of looking for a job numbers are skewed and so far out of whack, if all that were able to work and reentered the workforce or attempted to do so we would be more like 10-15% unemployment rate if not more.
During Obummer's run, I remember hearing the term "underemployed" for the first time. I couldn't say how skewed the numbers are, but even part time is considered employed. When things were real bad last go, I was still working a lot of hours, but mostly netting under minimum wage if broken down as hourly.
 

hallett21

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And the naysayers will continue to say all is OK. Everyday we see more and more lay offs and as we enter a recession and only going to get worse...(as of last week I think we are officially in a recession by historic standards since the 30 year bond rates inverted with the 1 month total sign of a recession).
I do work for a pretty large (500 million a year) furniture distributor. They import everything and sell on wayfarer, Amazon etc.

The guy I answer to owns 2 homes with his wife, who also works for the company. The employees at their level and above all work in one location and I’d guess there are 30-50 of them. That includes the CEO and other officers. Everyone else is warehouse labor/sub $30 an hour.

They have 6/7 warehouses in southern CA (and an entire east coast operation that I do not work in), and I would just guess that there are 75-100 employees per building.

But if they laid off 50% of the warehouse workforce I don’t think it would effect housing vs laying off 50% of the “corporate office”. So while a furniture company laying off 100s of employees is terrible. I’m not sure I see the connection on people not affording mortgages. They need to have a mortgage for it to be a factor.

I agree their landlords may begin to feel the pain, but not enough to unload the property. For every person I hear about selling a CA income property I can name 2-3 who are buying. It’s a great BBQ and dinner topic but those who have the money are not giving up SoCal property.
 

PaPaG

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I do work for a pretty large (500 million a year) furniture distributor. They import everything and sell on wayfarer, Amazon etc.

The guy I answer to owns 2 homes with his wife, who also works for the company. The employees at their level and above all work in one location and I’d guess there are 30-50 of them. That includes the CEO and other officers. Everyone else is warehouse labor/sub $30 an hour.

They have 6/7 warehouses in southern CA (and an entire east coast operation that I do not work in), and I would just guess that there are 75-100 employees per building.

But if they laid off 50% of the warehouse workforce I don’t think it would effect housing vs laying off 50% of the “corporate office”. So while a furniture company laying off 100s of employees is terrible. I’m not sure I see the connection on people not affording mortgages. They need to have a mortgage for it to be a factor.

I agree their landlords may begin to feel the pain, but not enough to unload the property. For every person I hear about selling a CA income property I can name 2-3 who are buying. It’s a great BBQ and dinner topic but those who have the money are not giving up SoCal property.
I would say a decent sized firm firing ALL 2700 of it's manufacturing and transportation employees vs 100s is a continued sign of things slowly but surly coming down the pike. Agree that those with money have no reason to give up their Cali homes but this is a national issue not a Cali or Havi issue. Like I have always said, the more everything catches up to the Fed increased rate pain the more we will know where the country's economy/recession level is and what the effects truly are heading and going to be.
 

Go-Fly

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That skew is always present however.. they haven’t counted people that have stopped looking for employment for as long as I am aware. We were probably over 20% real unemployment in 2009.

Look around… we simply are not there yet.. if we even do get there. We need months of hundreds of thousands of job losses to get there.
The board of the family business has decided not to do any new construction in 2023 or 2024. The 5 investors that we use are cutting back 75%. We flew the steel for our last crain a few weeks ago. Yes it's 10 stories high and will take 2 1/2 years to complete but, all the other jobs are on hold. Contractors that think they have 6 years of work on the books will find out after the first of the year that they are one and out. There is more going on behind closed doors to keep you up at night then you know. It can change over night but I dont see it. 20220920_141442.jpg
 

PaPaG

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The board of the family business has decided not to do any new construction in 2023 or 2024. The 5 investors that we use are cutting back 75%. We flew the steel for your last crain a few weeks ago. Yes it's 10 stories high and will take 2 1/2 years to complete but, all the other jobs are on hold. Contractors that think they have 6 years of work on the books will find out after the first of the year that they are one and out. There is more going on behind closed doors to keep you up at night then you know. It can change over night but I dont see it. View attachment 1174926
I did not give it a thumbs up wanting or applauding the slowdown, I am agreeing with your post. I wish RD had an agree button.
 

Runs2rch

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The board of the family business has decided not to do any new construction in 2023 or 2024. The 5 investors that we use are cutting back 75%. We flew the steel for our last crain a few weeks ago. Yes it's 10 stories high and will take 2 1/2 years to complete but, all the other jobs are on hold. Contractors that think they have 6 years of work on the books will find out after the first of the year that they are one and out. There is more going on behind closed doors to keep you up at night then you know. It can change over night but I dont see it. View attachment 1174926
Side note question. This 10 story crane takes over 2 years to assemble?
 

Go-Fly

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I did not give it a thumbs up wanting or applauding the slowdown, I am agreeing with your post. I wish RD had an agree button.
The strange thing is the numbers don't support it. It's just a fight to step floors however and it makes big money nervous
Side note question. This 10 story crane takes over 2 years to assemble?
Yes and no. It starts in the center of the building 4 stores high. Then is jacked up as you step floors.
.
 
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