WELCOME TO RIVER DAVES PLACE

For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

LargeOrangeFont

We aren't happy until you aren't happy
Joined
Sep 4, 2015
Messages
41,235
Reaction score
59,507
The board of the family business has decided not to do any new construction in 2023 or 2024. The 5 investors that we use are cutting back 75%. We flew the steel for our last crain a few weeks ago. Yes it's 10 stories high and will take 2 1/2 years to complete but, all the other jobs are on hold. Contractors that think they have 6 years of work on the books will find out after the first of the year that they are one and out. There is more going on behind closed doors to keep you up at night then you know. It can change over night but I dont see it. View attachment 1174926
I agree. Like I said.. we are barely to 2007.

We are going to be waiting awhile still for buying opportunities. The BS of the last 14 years does not get flushed through in 6 months.
 

Go-Fly

Where Are My Shoes?
Joined
Mar 2, 2010
Messages
4,948
Reaction score
6,579
I agree. Like I said.. we are barely to 2007.

We are going to be waiting awhile still for buying opportunities. The BS of the last 14 years does not get flushed through in 6 months.
I don't know what to think of all this. I see the numbers and read the reports. What I see on the streets doesn't match. What I hear doesn't match. I think you put agitated politicians, over spending, inflation, credit card debit and the fools games of the pandemic all in one mix and we have a big problems. The American people can handle anything one at a time. This is just to much. What I see with my own eyes is that people are putting on a good face. The person in front of you and behind you at the grocery store are not buying what they need but what they can afford.
 

Bobby V

Havasu1986
Joined
Dec 20, 2007
Messages
22,214
Reaction score
11,187
The board of the family business has decided not to do any new construction in 2023 or 2024. The 5 investors that we use are cutting back 75%. We flew the steel for our last crain a few weeks ago. Yes it's 10 stories high and will take 2 1/2 years to complete but, all the other jobs are on hold. Contractors that think they have 6 years of work on the books will find out after the first of the year that they are one and out. There is more going on behind closed doors to keep you up at night then you know. It can change over night but I dont see it. View attachment 1174926
Is this a residential, mixed use or office building? Location if you care to reply. 🤔
 

LargeOrangeFont

We aren't happy until you aren't happy
Joined
Sep 4, 2015
Messages
41,235
Reaction score
59,507
I don't know what to think of all this. I see the numbers and read the reports. What I see on the streets doesn't match. What I hear doesn't match. I think you put agitated politicians, over spending, inflation, credit card debit and the fools games of the pandemic all in one mix and we have a big problems. The American people can handle anything one at a time. This is just to much. What I see with my own eyes is that people are putting on a good face. The person in front of you and behind you at the grocery store are not buying what they need but what they can afford.

Some are, sure. But people are not destitute.. yet. Nothing is discounted. Still long lines going out to eat at most places. Demand is not even lower than it was pre pandemic, yet. Maybe we are just getting there.

People should be buying what they can afford.. that’s what people forgot the last 10!years.
 

NicPaus

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 15, 2010
Messages
10,993
Reaction score
8,489
In 08 work stopped over night in residential construction here in the Southbay. It has definitely slowed down. But nothing like 08-10. That might be happening in the next 2 years though. But nobody knows. Real Estate market effects it. Currently not much inventory.

Cities are still backed up on approving projects. I just met with my Architect yesterday and gave the go on the plans for a property. Probably 8-10 months for planning department approval. Our other project He said would be at least 6 months still until they are approved. Have 2 other projects 1 has been 18 months at city the other over a year now. Both ADUs no recent corrections just city backed up. Meeting 1 of my long time clients tomorrow for a bid on there addition they just finalized plans on. Same city as my project from yesterday so 8-10 months at city.
 

bonesfab

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 20, 2008
Messages
3,303
Reaction score
12,293
Honest question. How easy is it for you to hire good help and a rate that is in line with your current rates?

In construction I am at my wits end.
Impossible. I quit advertising because I am tired of unqualified people asking for 30-40.00 an hour and they can’t really do shit. Couple of weeks ago, a guy came buy. Talked the talk. Told him to come back in the morning and I would let test weld some pieces to see if he could back up his claims. Needless to say shop girl welds better than he could . Mechanics, plumbers and electricians are going to be able to charge a premium as the work force just isn’t there.
 

Bobby V

Havasu1986
Joined
Dec 20, 2007
Messages
22,214
Reaction score
11,187
In 08 work stopped over night in residential construction here in the Southbay. It has definitely slowed down. But nothing like 08-10. That might be happening in the next 2 years though. But nobody knows. Real Estate market effects it. Currently not much inventory.

Cities are still backed up on approving projects. I just met with my Architect yesterday and gave the go on the plans for a property. Probably 8-10 months for planning department approval. Our other project He said would be at least 6 months still until they are approved. Have 2 other projects 1 has been 18 months at city the other over a year now. Both ADUs no recent corrections just city backed up. Meeting 1 of my long time clients tomorrow for a bid on there addition they just finalized plans on. Same city as my project from yesterday so 8-10 months at city.
Work may have stopped for you in 2008. But being a estimator in commercial construction we saw it coming a year or so earlier. We just thought it was a slump and hoped things would pick up. Our field guys were happy and still spending money. Once the jobs on the books were done there wasn’t another job to go to. So the extra spending stopped. Haven’t seen it yet in 2022.
 

HNL2LHC

What is right and what is wrong these days!
Joined
Jun 25, 2018
Messages
10,209
Reaction score
16,370
Work may have stopped for you in 2008. But being a estimator in commercial construction we saw it coming a year or so earlier. We just thought it was a slump and hoped things would pick up. Our field guys were happy and still spending money. Once the jobs on the books were done there wasn’t another job to go to. So the extra spending stopped. Haven’t seen it yet in 2022.

Worked in commercial, tract residential and Luxury Res in my 30 years. The cycles overlap like a venn diagram. Typically when things are slow the gov starts projects then people have jobs and buys homes. All the while the Lux Market chugged along because they have the $$$ for one reason or another. At the start of a slowdown the Lux Home builders start the look at building and once they find out brands are not giving things away in about 6 months they build anyway. This is about where we are. Lux Homes are still busy but expecting savings. They might get it on raw materials and labor which is rather high. One project has been shelved only to hear 2 months later it is back on the books.

I think that now is the time to lace up your shoes to run with the big dogs!!!!!
 

530RL

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
18,402
Reaction score
16,329
In 08 work stopped over night in residential construction here in the Southbay. It has definitely slowed down. But nothing like 08-10. That might be happening in the next 2 years though. But nobody knows. Real Estate market effects it. Currently not much inventory.

Cities are still backed up on approving projects. I just met with my Architect yesterday and gave the go on the plans for a property. Probably 8-10 months for planning department approval. Our other project He said would be at least 6 months still until they are approved. Have 2 other projects 1 has been 18 months at city the other over a year now. Both ADUs no recent corrections just city backed up. Meeting 1 of my long time clients tomorrow for a bid on there addition they just finalized plans on. Same city as my project from yesterday so 8-10 months at city.
Demand continues to grow, but we can’t find labor to meet the demand. And that ranges from executive workers to entry level workers. We can’t find replacements for planned retirements let alone growth.

It could change, but for now the only reason we can not grow business or business has a contraction is because we don’t have the workers.
 
Last edited:

HNL2LHC

What is right and what is wrong these days!
Joined
Jun 25, 2018
Messages
10,209
Reaction score
16,370
Honest question. How easy is it for you to hire good help and a rate that is in line with your current rates?

In construction I am at my wits end.

I believe that I am in a fortunate position with retirement in my sights. 10 years. 😂😂😂 There is also the need to find some to fill my position and mentor for the next 3 years. Then let them run with things Along side my son and his business. That is the plan it will be interesting to see how it really pans out. 🤪🤪🤪🤪
 

BabyRay

Active Member
Joined
Oct 7, 2022
Messages
41
Reaction score
83
Your charts are irrelevant. Wait until the current quarter’s data is available.

A buddy of mine owns 5 Real Estate sales offices, the largest of which has about 40 agents. He’s scared, as closings are failing, and pending deals are falling off. He’s generally fiscally conservative, but I think he might have expanded too quickly and/or too late in the game, and could be in trouble. He didn’t ask for advice, but I’d have told him to slow down or at least be prepared for this.
 

Bobby V

Havasu1986
Joined
Dec 20, 2007
Messages
22,214
Reaction score
11,187
Your charts are irrelevant. Wait until the current quarter’s data is available.

A buddy of mine owns 5 Real Estate sales offices, the largest of which has about 40 agents. He’s scared, as closings are failing, and pending deals are falling off. He’s generally fiscally conservative, but I think he might have expanded too quickly and/or too late in the game, and could be in trouble. He didn’t ask for advice, but I’d have told him to slow down or at least be prepared for this.
What state are his real estate offices in?
 

Canuck 1

Midget Hater
Joined
Sep 26, 2007
Messages
1,047
Reaction score
2,048
Demand continues to grow, but we can’t find labor to meet the demand. And that ranges from executive workers to entry level workers. We can’t find replacements for planned retirements let alone growth.

It could change, but for now the only reason we can not grow business or business has a contraction is because we don’t have the workers.
We are in the same position
 

530RL

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
18,402
Reaction score
16,329
Your charts are irrelevant. Wait until the current quarter’s data is available.

A buddy of mine owns 5 Real Estate sales offices, the largest of which has about 40 agents. He’s scared, as closings are failing, and pending deals are falling off. He’s generally fiscally conservative, but I think he might have expanded too quickly and/or too late in the game, and could be in trouble. He didn’t ask for advice, but I’d have told him to slow down or at least be prepared for this.
Volume is definitely down dramatically.

I have no idea and no control over where it is going but I do believe 10 - 20 percent annual real price increases, 3 percent mortgages and the former annual re-sell and refinance volumes were unsustainable and were a function of Covid.

It will be interesting to see where it settles out. But in either event unless cities get more efficient, more water is available in the west and more of the current crop of young people decide to go into the trades, supply will be limited.

It will be interesting if it is a typical cyclical adjustment back to the normal trend line or the large percentage drop some are hoping for.
 

jet496

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 9, 2012
Messages
3,196
Reaction score
5,294
In 08 work stopped over night in residential construction here in the Southbay. It has definitely slowed down. But nothing like 08-10. That might be happening in the next 2 years though. But nobody knows. Real Estate market effects it. Currently not much inventory.

Cities are still backed up on approving projects. I just met with my Architect yesterday and gave the go on the plans for a property. Probably 8-10 months for planning department approval. Our other project He said would be at least 6 months still until they are approved. Have 2 other projects 1 has been 18 months at city the other over a year now. Both ADUs no recent corrections just city backed up. Meeting 1 of my long time clients tomorrow for a bid on there addition they just finalized plans on. Same city as my project from yesterday so 8-10 months at city.
I take it the cities aren't streamlining ADU's any more.
 

Your ad here

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 16, 2014
Messages
3,919
Reaction score
5,797
I was in real estate in 08, still am. This is very different.

In 08 prices fell off of a cliff. Now, prices are down slightly, and nothing is moving, but there anre almost NO homes for sale. Makes for a weird problem.

I have no idea how this ends.
Didn't prices fall off a cliff because majority of people couldn't afford their home when the interest rate changed or never saved up for a balloon payment? It was cheaper to rent the same size house than it was to pay a mortgage on that they really couldn't afford in the beginning. People may have paid a decent amount for their house these past 2-3 years but they were probably qualified correctly and got a fixed monthly payment with a low interest rate. Their house may have gone down in value now but it's not like the payment has shot up making it unaffordable. I bet rent in neighborhoods is still more than what people are paying for a mortgage in the same neighborhood.
 

monkeyswrench

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 7, 2018
Messages
19,190
Reaction score
48,137
I would say a decent sized firm firing ALL 2700 of it's manufacturing and transportation employees vs 100s is a continued sign of things slowly but surly coming down the pike. Agree that those with money have no reason to give up their Cali homes but this is a national issue not a Cali or Havi issue. Like I have always said, the more everything catches up to the Fed increased rate pain the more we will know where the country's economy/recession level is and what the effects truly are heading and going to be.
I think a lot of people tend to look at things through a prism of California or urban area demographics. The loss of a warehouse job or truck driving job may mean "rent" issues in one area, but by all means, could be enough to buy a home in other places.

Of the 2700 lost jobs from Lane, I'd hazard a guess that half or more of those were primary household incomes. What that equates to down the line, we'll see. The average household income is quite a bit different across the country.
 

Ace in the Hole

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 15, 2020
Messages
3,704
Reaction score
7,336
Demand continues to grow, but we can’t find labor to meet the demand. And that ranges from executive workers to entry level workers. We can’t find replacements for planned retirements let alone growth.

It could change, but for now the only reason we can not grow business or business has a contraction is because we don’t have the workers.
This is a bullshit argument. The labor and skills are there....people aren't willing to work for "nothing." They find alternatives that either pay better or are "easier" on their bodies for the money. Cost of living is exponentially higher when you add in housing etc than 2 years ago. Wages haven't kept up with increased costs in decades...the last 2 years exacerbated that to the point that it's unsustainable.
 

BabyRay

Active Member
Joined
Oct 7, 2022
Messages
41
Reaction score
83
What state are his real estate offices in?
Washington State.

Don’t get me wrong. Real estate hasn’t yet fallen completely off the cliff here, but prices and sales are definitely declining. I have no idea what level it will hit. I just know that I and my family will be fine regardless of what comes, but I hate to see others struggling.
 

BabyRay

Active Member
Joined
Oct 7, 2022
Messages
41
Reaction score
83
22: rate hikes killed buying power, driving demand off a cliff, prior to a massive recession (that RE did not cause) that will keep prices depressed

Nobody likes rate hikes, but 8% or higher inflation isn’t acceptable either. Serious question; What would you suggest be done to get the economy on track while avoiding hyper-inflation?
This is a bullshit argument. The labor and skills are there....people aren't willing to work for "nothing." They find alternatives that either pay better or are "easier" on their bodies for the money. Cost of living is exponentially higher when you add in housing etc than 2 years ago. Wages haven't kept up with increased costs in decades...the last 2 years exacerbated that to the point that it's unsustainable.
Ok. I can’t argue with you about wages vs costs, but businesses have the same problem. As the song says, money don’t grow on trees. Where is it to come from? Raising prices to pay higher wages just continues the cycle. There’s no easy solution that I’m aware of.
 

CarolynandBob

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 22, 2016
Messages
1,713
Reaction score
2,869
Some are, sure. But people are not destitute.. yet. Nothing is discounted. Still long lines going out to eat at most places. Demand is not even lower than it was pre pandemic, yet. Maybe we are just getting there.

People should be buying what they can afford.. that’s what people forgot the last 10!years.

In Sarasota on Monday we decided last minute to go to Coopers Hawk for dinner. Told the wife it won't work as that place is always packed. Went anyway and got a table with no wait. Wednesday with family in town we decide to get steak. Called Longhorn Steakhouse and asked how long is the wait for 6. She said come down and I can seat you immediately. We went and she did. Both of these were at about 6pm.

Not sure if it means anything, Just an observation.
 

Sportin' Wood

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2007
Messages
910
Reaction score
2,322
Impossible. I quit advertising because I am tired of unqualified people asking for 30-40.00 an hour and they can’t really do shit. Couple of weeks ago, a guy came buy. Talked the talk. Told him to come back in the morning and I would let test weld some pieces to see if he could back up his claims. Needless to say shop girl welds better than he could
Consider buying a collaborative welding robot. You can damn near take a warm body off the street and get qualified welds quickly. Massive de-skill automation is coming to solve these problems. This will drive an increasing wedge between two classes and substantially increase the barrier to entry to start up businesses.
 

bonesfab

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 20, 2008
Messages
3,303
Reaction score
12,293
Consider buying a collaborative welding robot. You can damn near take a warm body off the street and get qualified welds quickly. Massive de-skill automation is coming to solve these problems. This will drive an increasing wedge between two classes and substantially increase the barrier to entry to start up businesses.
Except almost eve we do is one off So automation is not really an answer. Some things can’t be replaced by a robot.
 

Go-Fly

Where Are My Shoes?
Joined
Mar 2, 2010
Messages
4,948
Reaction score
6,579
Is this a residential, mixed use or office building? Location if you care to reply. 🤔
It's mixed use. Three stories under ground parking. First floor is all retail and restaurants. Second and third floors large offices area and the rest is residential. This building is in California.
 

monkeyswrench

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 7, 2018
Messages
19,190
Reaction score
48,137
It's mixed use. Three stories under ground parking. First floor is all retail and restaurants. Second and third floors large offices area and the rest is residential. This building is in California.
Not that I'm in any way a player for things like this, but are there incentives for mixed use, or are they in anyway easier to permit? It seems as if it would be harder, as the different uses usually have different code requirements.

Learning what businesses will continue though a downturn can help a guy stay busy as well. Identifying opportunities can help immensely. I wasn't that sharp last time.
 

Bobby V

Havasu1986
Joined
Dec 20, 2007
Messages
22,214
Reaction score
11,187
Not that I'm in any way a player for things like this, but are there incentives for mixed use, or are they in anyway easier to permit? It seems as if it would be harder, as the different uses usually have different code requirements.

Learning what businesses will continue though a downturn can help a guy stay busy as well. Identifying opportunities can help immensely. I wasn't that sharp last time.
As far as the fire sprinkler codes for mix use. Parking garage, offices, retail and restaurants would fall under NFPA 13. Ordinary and light hazard. Steel pipes only. Residential would be NFPA 13R. Steel or plastic pipes are allowed. Some cities may have different codes .
 

monkeyswrench

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 7, 2018
Messages
19,190
Reaction score
48,137
As far as the fire sprinkler codes for mix use. Parking garage, offices, retail and restaurants would fall under NFPA 13. Ordinary and light hazard. Steel pipes only. Residential would be NFPA 13R. Steel or plastic pipes are allowed. Some cities may have different codes .
I'd only been around commercial and schools...I didn't know plastic was an option at all for fire sprinklers. Learn something new everyday;)
 

pronstar

President, Dallas Chapter
Joined
Aug 5, 2009
Messages
32,625
Reaction score
35,947
Nobody likes rate hikes, but 8% or higher inflation isn’t acceptable either. Serious question; What would you suggest be done to get the economy on track while avoiding hyper-inflation?
The Fed needs to get the fuck out of the way and stop meddling, which is why we are where we are.

We can't simply grow the M2 money supply by 40%, paying people not to work (increasing demand) while shutting down the entire supply side industry...it's caused massive distortions that the market needs to work out.

We can't have The Fed inflating the asset bubble by putting $9 trillion on their balance sheet without cauding massive distortions that the market needs to work out.

Oh, and when they unwind their balance sheet, that $9 trillion will crush the stock market.

We can't have a decade of QE without causing massive distortions that the market needs to work out.

Every time The Fed intervenes in the free market, it kicks the can down the road and the needed market corrections get bigger and more painful.

You dont kick a heroin habit by taking more heroin. You need to stop taking heroin and face some immediate pain for long-term stability.

The Market needs time to adjust and correct for these massive distortions.

All of this is what happens when we have a government only interested in doing what it takes to get re-elected in 2 or 4 years. We need a cohesive long term plan.

Powell isn't interested in inflation.
He's only interested in getting inflation out of the headlines.
 

Go-Fly

Where Are My Shoes?
Joined
Mar 2, 2010
Messages
4,948
Reaction score
6,579
Not that I'm in any way a player for things like this, but are there incentives for mixed use, or are they in anyway easier to permit? It seems as if it would be harder, as the different uses usually have different code requirements.

Learning what businesses will continue though a downturn can help a guy stay busy as well. Identifying opportunities can help immensely. I wasn't that sharp last time.
Bigger cities have a development plan that they work under. They decide long before you buy the property what they want to be built there. It's not carved in stone but cast in concrete. There are incentives if you are being asked to come build something the city wants. The Biden admin had incentives for rentals that helped caused the housing price spike but that is a whole different deal. Permits take about 64 months and are not really the hard part. With that size building, you impact traffic. Roads have to be widen. Bridges have to be built maybe. Stop lights have to be installed. Don't get me started about water run off and God forbid there is a wetland within a mile. Codes are a funny thing because no one person really understands it all. The structure is all the same for the hard build. What it is used for and how many people will use it changes fire codes, ADA codes, heating, venting and all the mix. There are hundreds of government agency's that you have to deal with. Not all part of the city. The FAA for aircraft warning lights would be one. That's kind of the short of it.
 

Havasu blue label

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 30, 2018
Messages
4,006
Reaction score
2,199
The Fed needs to get the fuck out of the way and stop meddling, which is why we are where we are.

We can't simply grow the M2 money supply by 40%, paying people not to work (increasing demand) while shutting down the entire supply side industry...it's caused massive distortions that the market needs to work out.

We can't have The Fed inflating the asset bubble by putting $9 trillion on their balance sheet without cauding massive distortions that the market needs to work out.

Oh, and when they unwind their balance sheet, that $9 trillion will crush the stock market.

We can't have a decade of QE without causing massive distortions that the market needs to work out.

Every time The Fed intervenes in the free market, it kicks the can down the road and the needed market corrections get bigger and more painful.

You dont kick a heroin habit by taking more heroin. You need to stop taking heroin and face some immediate pain for long-term stability.

The Market needs time to adjust and correct for these massive distortions.

All of this is what happens when we have a government only interested in doing what it takes to get re-elected in 2 or 4 years. We need a cohesive long term plan.

Powell isn't interested in inflation.
He's only interested in getting inflation out of the headlines.
You should of posted this when trump was signing those checks
 

jet496

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 9, 2012
Messages
3,196
Reaction score
5,294
Demand continues to grow, but we can’t find labor to meet the demand. And that ranges from executive workers to entry level workers. We can’t find replacements for planned retirements let alone growth.

It could change, but for now the only reason we can not grow business or business has a contraction is because we don’t have the workers.
Same with us.
 

Sportin' Wood

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2007
Messages
910
Reaction score
2,322
Except almost eve we do is one off So automation is not really an answer. Some things can’t be replaced by a robot.
You might look again at collaborative robots, or "CoBots" They are designed to be used in high-mix, low-volume applications.

They are very point-and-shoot and do not require complicated programming. A CoBot may not streamline your welding process, but it will improve your repeatability and weld quality even when the operator is not a welder. The American Welding Society predicts a shortage of 400,000 welders in 2024, so the market is working to solve that problem since it won't disappear.

Disclaimer, I work in robotics and automation. Almost everything is going to be able to be replaced by automation in some fashion. Primarily de-skilling labor. At some point, they will figure out how to use automation in field applications and then say goodbye to the middle class.
 

Go-Fly

Where Are My Shoes?
Joined
Mar 2, 2010
Messages
4,948
Reaction score
6,579
Some are, sure. But people are not destitute.. yet. Nothing is discounted. Still long lines going out to eat at most places. Demand is not even lower than it was pre pandemic, yet. Maybe we are just getting there.

People should be buying what they can afford.. that’s what people forgot the last 10!years.
Most of us agree on more then we disagree. It's a word game. Destitute: A couple with a mortgage, two cars, two incomes, 2 1/2 kids, dog named Max and can't cover a $500 emergency. 60% of people live in a world that it's not a problem until it's a problem. Life goes on, kids go to school, band practice, mow the lawn and have some laughs and a beer with the neighbor. The poor make it through inflation and recessions better then the middle class. They live it every day. I think the down turn started in June. Some are going to make money and say this is the best economy ever. Some are going to stay on a steady course and wonder what the big fuss is. Some are going to have a hard time and some are going to lose everything. The big question is, what the split will be? I think it is going to be self inflected, just like people choosing not to go back to work. Two jobs for every one person looking for work was the last numbers. Average credit card has a $9000 balance. Most people have 5 or more cards. 2/3 of the population has less then $500 in the bank and the answer is to not go back to work. Makes you wonder, are people going to let it all go and go back to love and family, not being judge by a fake façade.
 
Top