For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[LargeOrangeFont]

Ok so we are comparing a purse to a property come bro you are better then that

No.. it’s the same sales tactic. That house was never worth $439.

 

[EmpirE231]

140K price drops are not a big deal lol, nobody panic. It is a price "improvement"

now is a great time to buy. So was a year ago, and the year before that.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

140K price drops are not a big deal lol, nobody panic. It is a price "improvement"

now is a great time to buy. So was a year ago, and the year before that.

And the entire decade before that .

But most of the people in here missed those 10 years of opportunity fearing we were 18 months away from Financial Armageddon.

Today any one of us would buy any RE we could at 2006 prices. That was only 16 years ago.

Anytime is a great time to buy if the deal makes sense and you have a long time lens.

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

Here we are two weeks later as it is the 30th:

Dow 33,582.91 two weeks ago moves up 3.00 percent to 34,589.77

Nasdaq 11,190.21 two weeks ago moves up 2.49 percent to 11,468.00

S&P 500 3,971.83 two weeks ago moves up 2.73 percent to 4,080.11.

Beats me where it goes in the future but those are the facts for the last two weeks.

Yeah, I didn't lose money, but I'm pretty much even. I was up quite a bit yesterday with my inverse ETF's and was literally thinking Powell may give relieve for the holidays before the new year. Lots of politics happening in the market right now. It is best to bet on the upside and not the negative, but I know for fact we will see a huge drop coming in the future. The 10/2 yield is hitting new lows consistently. This recession is going to be brutal!

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Yeah, I didn't lose money, but I'm pretty much even. I was up quite a bit yesterday with my inverse ETF's and was literally thinking Powell may give relieve for the holidays before the new year. Lots of politics happening in the market right now. It is best to bet on the upside and not the negative, but I know for fact we will see a huge drop coming in the future. The 10/2 yield is hitting new lows consistently. This recession is going to be brutal!

The question is it going to be brutally long where we are just stuck in the mud, or a brutal sudden fall that we spring out of.

I think it’s the former more and more every day. All this crap is just going to take a long time for the economy to digest..

 

[pronstar]

The best time

And the entire decade before that .

But most of the people in here missed those 10 years of opportunity fearing we were 18 months away from Financial Armageddon.

Today any one of us would buy any RE we could at 2006 prices. That was only 16 years ago.

Anytime is a great time to buy if the deal makes sense and you have a long time lens.

The best time to buy RE was 30 years ago.
The second best time to buy RE is today.

Lots of caveats, of course…

 

[Havasu blue label]

The deals are coming in but we are not the only guys sitting on the sidelines .

 

[yuppie]

The deals are coming in but we are not the only guys sitting on the sidelines .

Institutions are sucking up all the inventory. Builders are still backlogged. Cost of materials is still high...

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

2023 FHA Loan Limits just released today -

LA/OC - $1,089,300
SD - $977,500
Riverside/San Bernardino - $644,000

Mohave - $472,030

The high balance County limits are insane for FHA.

 

[Bpracing1127]

2023 FHA Loan Limits just released today -

LA/OC - $1,089,300
SD - $977,500
Riverside/San Bernardino - $644,000

Mohave - $472,030

The high balance County limits are insane for FHA.

That’s crazy!!!

Btw you in UTAh yet?

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

That’s crazy!!!

Btw you in UTAh yet?

Still pending

 

[Cole Trickle]

That’s crazy!!!

Btw you in UTAh yet?

I have a guy for you

 

[530RL]

Yeah, I didn't lose money, but I'm pretty much even. I was up quite a bit yesterday with my inverse ETF's and was literally thinking Powell may give relieve for the holidays before the new year. Lots of politics happening in the market right now. It is best to bet on the upside and not the negative, but I know for fact we will see a huge drop coming in the future. The 10/2 yield is hitting new lows consistently. This recession is going to be brutal!

I have no idea if it will be brutal or not.

All I know is that if you don’t play you can’t win. And sitting on the sidelines with 8 percent inflation is a sure way to lose 8 percent a year in real value.

So I play the statistical odds which is stay in the game and keep working.

 

[Havasu Rehab]

U.S. adds 263,000 jobs in November, complicating the fight against inflation — The Washington Post

The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reflects a strong job market.

stocks.apple.com

“In many ways, the job market is the economy’s last stand,” said Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, who expects a shallow recession in 2023. “Just about every other indicator of economic strength is in negative or neutral territory. The one that’s stayed positive is the job market, but the question is: Is it starting to weaken? That’s what everybody is watching.”

This point seems to have been brought up more than a few times in this thread. I’m not nearly as educated on the topic as I should be, but I do believe it’s interesting following this thread and both sides of the conversation.

 

[Runs2rch]

What were the sales numbers for black Friday? Usually its advertised how high the sales were blah blah blah.

Cyber Monday being extended says the target goals were not reached.

 

[Go-Fly]

U.S. adds 263,000 jobs in November, complicating the fight against inflation — The Washington Post

The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reflects a strong job market.

stocks.apple.com

“In many ways, the job market is the economy’s last stand,” said Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, who expects a shallow recession in 2023. “Just about every other indicator of economic strength is in negative or neutral territory. The one that’s stayed positive is the job market, but the question is: Is it starting to weaken? That’s what everybody is watching.”

This point seems to have been brought up more than a few times in this thread. I’m not nearly as educated on the topic as I should be, but I do believe it’s interesting following this thread and both sides of the conversation.

Bottom line. 2/3 of Americans can't afford to live here. You can have the best economy and all the jobs you want.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

U.S. adds 263,000 jobs in November, complicating the fight against inflation — The Washington Post

The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reflects a strong job market.

stocks.apple.com

“In many ways, the job market is the economy’s last stand,” said Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, who expects a shallow recession in 2023. “Just about every other indicator of economic strength is in negative or neutral territory. The one that’s stayed positive is the job market, but the question is: Is it starting to weaken? That’s what everybody is watching.”

This point seems to have been brought up more than a few times in this thread. I’m not nearly as educated on the topic as I should be, but I do believe it’s interesting following this thread and both sides of the conversation.

Still adding net jobs….

I guess all those tech workers fired from Facebook, Twitter and Amazon found barista jobs

 

[attitude]

Still adding net jobs….

I guess all those tech workers fired from Facebook, Twitter and Amazon found barista jobs

“Part time” lol. My Fiancée is still isn’t working 40 hours a week and her hours were cut beginning of COVID… Her company has an estimated 140,000 employees and I’m sure many of them are in the same boat.

But they are hiring!

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

“Part time” lol. My Fiancée is still isn’t working 40 hours a week and her hours were cut beginning of COVID… Her company has an estimated 140,000 employees and I’m sure many of them are in the same boat.

But they are hiring!

I’m sorry to hear that. It is certainly not all roses roses out there, but the bottom has not fallen out either.

Just be ready a year or so after unemployment bottoms out to some number after we shed significant jobs. That will be the time, if there ever is one to buy.

The other might be right when rates turn, but that may be a smaller window, and would be before the opportunity above.

 

[530RL]

What were the sales numbers for black Friday? Usually its advertised how high the sales were blah blah blah.

Cyber Monday being extended says the target goals were not reached.

U.S. Black Friday online sales hit record $9 bln despite high inflation- Adobe Analytics

U.S. shoppers spent a record $9.12 billion online this Black Friday, a report showed on Saturday, as consumers weathered the squeeze from high inflation and grabbed steep discounts on everything from smartphones to toys.

www.reuters.com

Deep discounts drive online Black Friday sales up 7.5%

Consumers spent a record $9.8 billion in Black Friday online sales, Adobe says, as web retailers offered attractive deals.

www.digitalcommerce360.com

Cyber Monday Sales On Track to Break Record Despite US Inflation

www.bloomberg.com

Cyber Monday shopping expected to set record but annual growth has slowed | Adobe

Cyber Monday shopping sales hit at least $6.3 billion through part of the day in the U.S. today, according to Adobe Analytics.

venturebeat.com

 

[attitude]

I’m sorry to hear that. It is certainly not all roses roses out there, but the bottom has not fallen out either.

Just be ready a year or so after unemployment bottoms out to some number after we shed significant jobs. That will be the time, if there ever is one to buy.

The other might be right when rates turn, but that may be a smaller window, and would be before the opportunity above.

With her working nights it has allowed her to get home earlier and get more sleep before the kids wake her up so it hasn't been the worst, but when you start adding up the take home she losses it makes me wince a little.

We are very lucky, we aren’t the richest but we certainly aren’t the poorest. However, there are many people who can’t handle their hours getting cute 25-40%. As far as I know job charts don’t take into account jobs that have had hours cut or job postings that are part time. I have a feeling the economy looks way better on paper than it actually is.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

With her working nights it has allowed her to get home earlier and get more sleep before the kids wake her up so it hasn't been the worst, but when you start adding up the take home she losses it makes me wince a little.

We are very lucky, we aren’t the richest but we certainly aren’t the poorest. However, there are many people who can’t handle their hours getting cute 25-40%. As far as I know job charts don’t take into account jobs that have had hours cut or job postings that are part time. I have a feeling the economy looks way better on paper than it actually is.

No they do not take into account less employment, just who is unemployed.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Fed chair said rate increase effects haven’t shown in the data yet. Most statistics still look okay. GDP unemployment hell even October inflation only .3% increase….only mortgages and housing sales volume have taken a big hit. How much for an Xmas tree? Gonna find out soon

 

[regor]

U.S. Black Friday online sales hit record $9 bln despite high inflation- Adobe Analytics

U.S. shoppers spent a record $9.12 billion online this Black Friday, a report showed on Saturday, as consumers weathered the squeeze from high inflation and grabbed steep discounts on everything from smartphones to toys.

www.reuters.com

Deep discounts drive online Black Friday sales up 7.5%

Consumers spent a record $9.8 billion in Black Friday online sales, Adobe says, as web retailers offered attractive deals.

www.digitalcommerce360.com

Cyber Monday Sales On Track to Break Record Despite US Inflation

www.bloomberg.com

Cyber Monday shopping expected to set record but annual growth has slowed | Adobe

Cyber Monday shopping sales hit at least $6.3 billion through part of the day in the U.S. today, according to Adobe Analytics.

venturebeat.com

Did they account for inflation?

 

[regor]

U.S. adds 263,000 jobs in November, complicating the fight against inflation — The Washington Post

The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reflects a strong job market.

stocks.apple.com

“In many ways, the job market is the economy’s last stand,” said Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, who expects a shallow recession in 2023. “Just about every other indicator of economic strength is in negative or neutral territory. The one that’s stayed positive is the job market, but the question is: Is it starting to weaken? That’s what everybody is watching.”

This point seems to have been brought up more than a few times in this thread. I’m not nearly as educated on the topic as I should be, but I do believe it’s interesting following this thread and both sides of the conversation.

Still adding net jobs….

I guess all those tech workers fired from Facebook, Twitter and Amazon found barista jobs

They're lying, like they always do.

Something Is Rigged: Unexplained, Record 2.7 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report​

The gap that opened in March has since grown to a whopping 2.7 million "workers" which may or may not exist anywhere besides the spreadsheet model of some BLS (or is that BLM) political activist.

FRI DEC 2, AT 7:49 AM

Buy moor stonks!!!!

 

[LuauLounge]

It is all about getting our economy in a place where everyone, employed, unemployed, no visible means of support can purchase an EV.

 

[regor]

They know the country is brainwashed as all hell.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

They're lying, like they always do.

Something Is Rigged: Unexplained, Record 2.7 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report​

The gap that opened in March has since grown to a whopping 2.7 million "workers" which may or may not exist anywhere besides the spreadsheet model of some BLS (or is that BLM) political activist.

FRI DEC 2, AT 7:49 AM




View attachment 1177391


Buy moor stonks!!!!

Agreed, but they have always lied.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

It is all about getting our economy in a place where everyone, employed, unemployed, no visible means of support can purchase an EV.

In California they are going to provide one at no charge. Put it on my tab I heard newsome say

 

[regor]

Agreed, but they have always lied.

True, but not at this level.

It will break and when it does............................it will be a bloodbath.

 

[regor]

Blackstone Urges Investment Advisors To 'Keep Clients Calm' As It Limits Redemptions Of Commercial REIT​

"We have prepared the following to help guide conservation with your clients."

FRI DEC 2, AT 12:45 PM


Bloomberg’s office REIT index is doing particularly poorly, sinking ~35% this year. Today’s jobs data beat expectations, but the labor force participation rate dropped again, and small businesses are shedding workers, while work forces haven’t fully returned to pre-pandemic office life.

Blackstone officials may be halting redemptions if they can’t -- or don’t want to -- sell assets because they aren’t confident they can get a price that matches their current valuations, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jeffrey Langbaum tells me. He warns that a repricing for private market values is coming, as it has to, based on interest rates. Blackstone shares have tumbled around 10% in two days.



First caveat of investing - "Getting in may be easier than getting out."

You can't lose if you don't play!!!

Pension funds.....................

 

[pronstar]

Jobs gained are part time, service/hospitality sector.
Jobs lost are full time, manufacturing sector and white collar.

Yay!

 

[regor]

Jobs gained are part time, service sector.
Jobs lost are full time, manufacturing sector and white collar.

Yay!

Obama, is that you?

 

[regor]

U.S. Black Friday online sales hit record $9 bln despite high inflation- Adobe Analytics

U.S. shoppers spent a record $9.12 billion online this Black Friday, a report showed on Saturday, as consumers weathered the squeeze from high inflation and grabbed steep discounts on everything from smartphones to toys.

www.reuters.com

Deep discounts drive online Black Friday sales up 7.5%

Consumers spent a record $9.8 billion in Black Friday online sales, Adobe says, as web retailers offered attractive deals.

www.digitalcommerce360.com

Cyber Monday Sales On Track to Break Record Despite US Inflation

www.bloomberg.com

Cyber Monday shopping expected to set record but annual growth has slowed | Adobe

Cyber Monday shopping sales hit at least $6.3 billion through part of the day in the U.S. today, according to Adobe Analytics.

venturebeat.com

Did they account for inflation?

 

[thetub]

panhandling sector gained 81 million trillion percent...

 

[hallett21]

Jobs gained are part time, service/hospitality sector.
Jobs lost are full time, manufacturing sector and white collar.

Yay!

I’m trying to figure out hospitality gaining so much. Ski resorts? That’s the only thing that gains jobs in the winter.

 

[BabyRay]

Blackstone Urges Investment Advisors To 'Keep Clients Calm' As It Limits Redemptions Of Commercial REIT​

"We have prepared the following to help guide conservation with your clients."

FRI DEC 2, AT 12:45 PM


Bloomberg’s office REIT index is doing particularly poorly, sinking ~35% this year. Today’s jobs data beat expectations, but the labor force participation rate dropped again, and small businesses are shedding workers, while work forces haven’t fully returned to pre-pandemic office life.

Blackstone officials may be halting redemptions if they can’t -- or don’t want to -- sell assets because they aren’t confident they can get a price that matches their current valuations, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jeffrey Langbaum tells me. He warns that a repricing for private market values is coming, as it has to, based on interest rates. Blackstone shares have tumbled around 10% in two days.



First caveat of investing - "Getting in may be easier than getting out."

You can't lose if you don't play!!!

Pension funds.....................

View attachment 1177482

I’m invested in commercial real estate, but of a light industrial nature in a reasonably recession-proof industry, so I’m feeling pretty good about it. However, the lockdowns and other foolish political moves initiated a change to work-from-home policies at many companies, which is having a devastating effect on office real estate. A few examples, just from my neck of the woods; 1) REI completed construction of a new campus in 2019/2020, totaling 400,000 sq. ft. Before ever moving into it, they told everyone to continue working from home, and sold it to Facebook (who probably has way too much space now); 2) a temporary labor provider (who shall remain unnamed, considering my source) has an office building that housed 400 employees pre-Covid. That building now has only 35 people in it at any time, though the 400 are still employed. ; 3) So many people formerly employed in downtown Seattle offices are now working from home, that gyms, retail stores and restaurants in the area are shutting down (well from work-at-home and the un-prosecuted crimes).

I don’t see office real estate recovering anytime soon, and retail is headed down the same path.

 

[regor]

Credit Card Debt Hits All-Time High Just As US Savings Rate Plummets To 17-Year Low​

What can possibly go wrong...

WED DEC 7, AT 12:31 PM

Getting closer.

 

[EmpirE231]

Credit Card Debt Hits All-Time High Just As US Savings Rate Plummets To 17-Year Low​

What can possibly go wrong...

WED DEC 7, AT 12:31 PM

Getting closer.

Most haven't even done their Christmas shopping yet

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Yeah its not good especially with rates and cost of borrowing up. The other stat I am watching now is 1st time unemployment claims currently sitting around 225K a week during the 2008 meltdown it was up around 600K a week so lets see how high and how fast it increases.

Banks will be forced to reserve for losses at a greater rate soon I suppose 4th quarter we will see some of this.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Yeah its not good especially with rates and cost of borrowing up. The other stat I am watching now is 1st time unemployment claims currently sitting around 225K a week during the 2008 meltdown it was up around 600K a week so lets see how high and how fast it increases.

Banks will be forced to reserve for losses at a greater rate soon I suppose 4th quarter we will see some of this.

This. Wake me up then for a deal
on a Havasu house

 

[Havasu blue label]

This. Wake me up then for a deal
on a Havasu house and

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I got another source for jobs data:

California's Economy and Taxes

lao.ca.gov

The interesting thing on this page was the state income tax collections on wages data. Down $1.8B in the current fiscal year from the same period in the prior fiscal year. Lets see where that one goes.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I got another source for jobs data:

California's Economy and Taxes

lao.ca.gov

The interesting thing on this page was the state income tax collections on wages data. Down $1.8B in the current fiscal year from the same period in the prior fiscal year. Lets see where that one goes.

OMG we have a budget shortfall, we need to tax you more… for the children.

 

[Orange Juice]

Not a lot of buyers at the moment. Not a lot of sellers either. We have seen about a 20% drop in active home prices.

We have a hand full of homes in our housing division, that need repairs on the outside. They are owned by the original buyers, and no upgrades….think single pane windows, early 1980s. It’s obvious they will need everything, including a roof, and those with pools have been empty for decades. Landscape now dirt, as the sprinklers have been turn off as well. It frustrates me and the neighbors, but it is what it is, when there’s no association (HOA). There are more nice homes, then those few “ugly homes”, so it’s not too bad.

 

[bk2drvr]

Not a lot of buyers at the moment. Not a lot of sellers either. We have seen about a 20% drop in active home prices.

We have a hand full of homes in our housing division, that need repairs on the outside. They are owned by the original buyers, and no upgrades….think single pane windows, early 1980s. It’s obvious they will need everything, including a roof, and those with pools have been empty for decades. Landscape now dirt, as the sprinklers have been turn off as well. It frustrates me and the neighbors, but it is what it is, when there’s no association (HOA). There are more nice homes, then those few “ugly homes”, so it’s not too bad.

Where?

 

[regor]

People with knowledge of the matter have confirmed that multinational e-commerce and tech giant Amazon will be laying off 20,000 of its employees, including top managers, data scientists, software engineers and other corporate workers.

This represents the largest staff reduction in the company’s history.

The latest update from sources, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, included that the employees who will be laid off will receive a 24-hour notice and severance pay in accordance with their company contracts.

2023 is setting up to be an absolute shit show.

 

[regor]

And the kiss of death.

 

[Orange Juice]

Where?

Northeast Phoenix. My home is still up over 3 times in the last 20 years, so there are no real bargains, just opportunities.

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

And the kiss of death.

View attachment 1178865

HAHA! I jumped into the stock world and it used to be known you could make money following his advice as so many followed and jumped on his picks that it would turn stocks. Now, all the good traders do the opposite of when he says and make big bucks.