For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[Paradox]

Sounds like 800 credit scores and 40% down might be the new gold standard..

 

[hallett21]

I guess they didn't miss but not much movement in the stock price. Maybe tomorrow.

After hours it’s up 5.5-6%

 

[angiebaby]

So now you say people may be on drugs without even knowing them? have you taken your meds lately LOF....you are seriously an idiot, no wonder so many cant stand you.

You just said you had all the facts on lock and I’m wrong, and you’ve only been espousing this all for 7 months.. then FACtS come out that you were incorrect..

What are we to believe? That you don’t know what you are posting or are willfully ignorant?

Like I said.. Good luck. You still refuse to acknowledge differences in opinion, even ones drawn from the same information..

You are positively

Not the same post idiot.
You are positively NOT the smart money either lol

Again you are an asshole for even throwing that kind of comment out there, you need to go back on your meds, you have a serious issue. I feel sorry for you.

See above pops. This isn’t your first thread on this.

I don’t think you’ve ever called me out on anything, you just start tap dancing when questioned and celebrate that you’ve hurt the person’s feelings that challenges your thinking.

Just like today.. your only question on a contradictory article to your info was the date. You won’t even acknowledge that another conclusion can be drawn from the same info you provided. Instead you cry about me posting the publication date.

Tap Tap Tap.

Good Luck.

Called you out on constant back peddling when caught in a lie. IT has been 3 days over 7 months that is Nothing near a year, 12-7=5 math class over. Data and facts are there, you just have to learn how to read and stop thinking you are 100% right all the time in every post on every subject then maybe you can get a little respect you so desperately desire.

Sad Sad Sad...I am done with you.

Then be done.

Jeezus! I feel like I'm dealing with my kids in the back seat of the car! How old are you two?? Can we stop with the two-man circle jerk? You two know how to f-up a perfectly good adult discussion. I appreciate all of the useful data and information on this thread, which is why I keep weeding through your bullshit to see it. Grow up already! Or meet up in person and throw down like men and get it over with!

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Jeezus! I feel like I'm dealing with my kids in the back seat of the car! How old are you two?? Can we stop with the two-man circle jerk? You two know how to f-up a perfectly good adult discussion. I appreciate all of the useful data and information on this thread, which is why I keep weeding through your bullshit to see it. Grow up already! Or meet up in person and throw down and get it overwith!

He said he’s done.. we’ll see!

 

[angiebaby]

He said he’s done.. we’ll see!

And, of course, you had to throw in a response so you could have the last word, which furthers my point that it's both of you.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Sounds like 800 credit scores and 40% down might be the new gold standard..

After hours it’s up 5.5-6%

Yeah I’m wrong again. It hadn’t moved much when I looked. I don’t put too much weight in after hours and I still think the report overall was not a positive. Top line revenue growth definitely slowing not gonna be close to 50% in 2023. I think the stock gets punished tomorrow. Might as well double down

 

[C_J_J_C]

So.... 87 pages, 4,307 posts and I still don't know if now is a good time to buy.

 

[shintoooo]

You Sum Bitches better start behaving or you'll be getting a vacation to 2024.


LOF holding on to PaPaG's Hat!!

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

And, of course, you had to throw in a response so you could have the last word, which furthers my point that it's both of you.

Of course.

All I wanted to talk about was the 2 opposing conclusions drawn from the same set of data points today

 

[hallett21]

Yeah I’m wrong again. It hadn’t moved much when I looked. I don’t put too much weight in after hours and I still think the report overall was not a positive. Top line revenue growth definitely slowing not gonna be close to 50% in 2023. I think the stock gets punished tomorrow. Might as well double down

How dare you. Elon said cyber truck this summer ….. maybe ….

 

[angiebaby]

So.... 87 pages, 4,307 posts and I still don't know if now is a good time to buy.

Well, 2604 of the posts were LOF and PaPaG

I'll leave it to the peanut gallery to decide who is who

 

[TimeBandit]

Sounds like 800 credit scores and 40% down might be the new gold standard..

That's racist.

 

[angiebaby]

So.... 87 pages, 4,307 posts and I still don't know if now is a good time to buy.

If you're buying for your home, then when it's the right home at a price you can afford, it's a good time. As many have stated, RE historically goes up in the long term. I think the peak of the current bubble has subsided. If you're buying for a shorter-term investment, the jury is still out on the right time.

 

[bonesfab]

Jeezus! I feel like I'm dealing with my kids in the back seat of the car! How old are you two?? Can we stop with the two-man circle jerk? You two know how to f-up a perfectly good adult discussion. I appreciate all of the useful data and information on this thread, which is why I keep weeding through your bullshit to see it. Grow up already! Or meet up in person and throw down like men and get it over with!

Maybe you should make them write "I will not fuck up another informative thread" a hundred times on the black board.. Wait can we still call them black boards??

 

[angiebaby]

Maybe you should make them write "I will not fuck up another informative thread" a hundred times on the black board.. Wait can we still call them black boards??

No. That's racist. They are whiteboards now . . . unless you are at a rural school in Montana.

 

[LuauLounge]

Today is the day to buy a house.


Tomorrow may not be the day to sell it, nor the following 3000 days.

 

[PaPaG]

Jeezus! I feel like I'm dealing with my kids in the back seat of the car! How old are you two?? Can we stop with the two-man circle jerk? You two know how to f-up a perfectly good adult discussion. I appreciate all of the useful data and information on this thread, which is why I keep weeding through your bullshit to see it. Grow up already! Or meet up in person and throw down like men and get it over with!

If you actually read any of my initial posts you will see that I always try to post some data, facts, topic of discussion and things related to My initial post of this thread and I get a bullshit response so I respond and yes sometimes like a kid in the playground. I am going to continue posting the facts I find, read and discover. Going forward, If someone does not like what I post I am going to do my very best to ignore them as I am doing now.

 

[DC-88]

I think it's called priorities and standards. You probably set the standards of living for your kids much higher than you had for yourself at the same age. One feels they are doing the right thing as a parent by making a better/easier/more comfortable life for their children than they had. I know my parents did this for me. The problem is this creates an issue by setting their standards of expectations very high so when they transition from a dependent to an adult there is a dilema:

1. They have to reset their standards to their income potential and make it work on their own.
2. They maintain their standards or raise them as they try to keep up with societal consumerism pressures which typically requires supplemental financial assistance from the parents on top of their income. This could come in many forms, trust funds, home purchase down payments, jobs at family business that they wouldn't hold save for the nepitism, etc.
3. Zero effort is made to try and make it work as an adult in the real world because its just too hard and they stay sucking on the teet like a leech.

No one needs a $200k down payment for their first home purchase unless they are trying to uphold a standard of living that doesn't match their income.

edit: some early 20's kids can afford the $200k down no prob on their own efforts - but the complaint is that $200k down is too much for a first home given earning potential. I would counter that the standards are too high if you can't afford the $200k without assistance.

Yes 100% your first paragraph pertains to my kids and the other points to a lot of their friends, but mine have always had their heads on straight, worked in the trades as time allowed and looped into my business to get perspective, and saw firsthand how we busted ass to move forward. Many kids in our circle fit your #2 , but most along with some that are working with no safety net still live above their means so their mid 20's.... those will be gone in a blink. One thing I failed to mention in that quick post above ( Cal Fire was pulling up for a riser inspection and I was just killing time) was that my son who is at this point is married and his wife makes as much as him, so they are sort of setting that standard for themselves regarding purchase location , sq footage, lot size . My point was, after initially debating I do agree with him that they have it harder with rates at a similar point to the early 90's, and am concerned reading the post from OSB with regard to how big the loan balances are for young homeowners regardless of if they are buying in Texas or Costa Mesa in relation to their wages as compared to the initial primary residences we owned back in the day. My buddies who blew money early 90's it was on car stereos, lift kits financed, partying, not working at all to only surf, etc but the door slammed shut quick on that stuff and most buckled down and got after it. I don't see that happening as quickly with my kids generation , at least to date.

 

[petie6464]

Basics of RE purchasing will tell you what to do today.

All these pages are a lot of luke warm piss from small peckers..

 

[Orange Juice]

Notice after price peaking 9 months ago on Zillow, my zestimate went up $1 per sq foot in NE Phoenix area.

Could be a trend. ???

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Notice after price peaking 9 months ago on Zillow, my zestimate went up $1 per sq foot in NE Phoenix area.

Could be a trend. ???

The price algorithms are probably the least reliable and easily manipulated.

My parents’ house for instance this week -Magically after listing their house their Zestimate went up $150k…$5k under their asking price .

Keep in mind these people were using these algorithms trying to buy your home up to 18 months ago… and probably will try to again when the market conditions turn.

 

[Orange Juice]

The price algorithms are probably the least reliable and easily manipulated.

My parents’ house for instance this week -Magically after listing their house their Zestimate went up $150k…$5k under their asking price .

Keep in mind these people were using these algorithms trying to buy your home up to 18 months ago… and probably will try to again when the market conditions turn.

I’ve been watching zillow weekly, for about 5 years.

We had 3 ugly home sales in my neighborhood, and 2 new listings. I get calls all the time. Not so many the last 2 months.

The 20% down payment is $150k now. Some people will need two jobs, to buy a home, or 4 jobs to add a boat and tow vehicle.

 

[JL95]

I was looking at a decent $625k house (low range for socal these days) . 120k down all said and done it was still ~$3700/month with 5.7% apr. 5% was $3493. Wild to me.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I was looking at a decent $625k house (low range for socal these days) . 120k down all said and done it was still ~$3700/month with 5.7% apr. 5% was $3493. Wild to me.

What’s rent on that house, any idea?

 

[mesquito_creek]

U.S. economic activity expanded faster than expected in the final three months of 2022, marking a resilient end to a year defined by stubborn inflation, rising interest rates, and battered financial markets.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate of Q4 U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) showed a 2.9% annualized increase in economic growth for the period, better than consensus forecasts.

 

[pkrrvr619]

I was looking at a decent $625k house (low range for socal these days) . 120k down all said and done it was still ~$3700/month with 5.7% apr. 5% was $3493. Wild to me.

Just spoke to a buddy that bought a town home in hb. 800k and all in mortgage, fees hoa, etc is a 5k a month nut.

That to me just seems crazy. But perhaps he doesn’t have a boat addiction either. I just can’t imagine tying that much up in a mortgage every month.

 

[JL95]

What’s rent on that house, any idea?

I would hazard a guess that it would not be as much as that mortgage. maybe 2700-3000.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I would hazard a guess that it would not be as much as that mortgage. maybe 2700-3000.

Thanks.

So when factoring in the tax savings of home ownership.. still not too far off even today.

That is definitely challenging.

 

[hman442]

The price algorithms are probably the least reliable and easily manipulated.

My parents’ house for instance this week -Magically after listing their house their Zestimate went up $150k…$5k under their asking price .

Keep in mind these people were using these algorithms trying to buy your home up to 18 months ago… and probably will try to again when the market conditions turn.

My house jumped over 100k a few years back, when I added a few photos, & added to their generic description. The emails that I receive, value has fallen from 1.1 to 950 over the past few months. I asked the Missus where my hat was.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Thanks.

So when factoring in the tax savings of home ownership.. still not too far off even today.

That is definitely challenging.

What tax savings that shit went away years ago

 

[attitude]

Thanks.

So when factoring in the tax savings of home ownership.. still not too far off even today.

That is definitely challenging.

Using the Freddie Mac tax saving calculator it shows a $7,292. Does that mean a home owner would receive a refund of $7,292 or that you can deduct that from your income?

Edit $7,292 was for a 10 year loan, a 30 year loan the estimate is $1,454.

 

[RiverDave]

So what about now? Can we buy a house yet? Lol.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

So what about now? Can we buy a house yet? Lol.

Smart money says wait it out.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Using the Freddie Mac tax saving calculator it shows a $7,292. Does that mean a home owner would receive a refund of $7,292 or that you can deduct that from your income?

Edit $7,292 was for a 10 year loan, a 30 year loan the estimate is $1,454.

This highlights some of this discussion… people that bought from 2020 to 2022 with low rates are land locked.

Those that bought before 2020 are sitting on equity and could move don’t want to pay more per month for less.

 

[RiverDave]

Smart money says wait it out.

Weird we are having our team meeting right now and I’m listening to one instance where last week one of my agents submitted a full price offer / all cash / 14 day close and didn’t get it..

So now we are once again talking about escalation clauses.

That being said this particular situation was kind of a weird deal on the listing agents side of thing.. but ultimately there was multiple over asking offers.

Sitting in the meeting almost all of the agents are saying they are getting calls and things are picking up.

 

[Havasu blue label]

So what about now? Can we buy a house yet? Lol.

You should own plenty with your income

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Weird we are having our team meeting right now and I’m listening to one instance where last week one of my agents submitted a full price offer / all cash / 14 day close and didn’t get it..

So now we are once again talking about escalation clauses.

That being said this particular situation was kind of a weird deal on the listing agents side of thing.. but ultimately there was multiple over asking offers.

Sitting in the meeting almost all of the agents are saying they are getting calls and things are picking up.

I would expect to see boat demand on the uptick as well. 10 years from now we will be talking about missed opportunity in the early 2020s. Some people see that, some will sit on the sidelines for another decade waiting for a crash.

One thing that is seldom mentioned here is that Covid taught a lot of people YOLO. Havasu as we know it was built on YOLO. To some, times and memories with friends and family are priceless. To others, it must be 50% off.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I would expect to see boat demand on the uptick as well. 10 years from now we will be talking about missed opportunity in the early 2020s.

To buy used pontoons or twenty-year-old custom boats with hour meters pegged on rebuild?

Boat demand will uptick based on seasonality. The bottom did not fall out this winter. Maybe next, Maybe never.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

To buy used pontoons or twenty-year-old custom boats with hour meters pegged on rebuild?

Boat demand will uptick based on seasonality. The bottom did not fall out this winter. Maybe next, Maybe never.

Does it matter what boat you are on if you are having fun with friends and family? If you are holding out for your dream boat at a bargain price, you might be boatless for awhile.

You can replace boats and toons with homes in your statement. The last part of my comment was directed at RE in 10 more years. Houses uptick seasonally as well. We are already seeing it.

To put a finer point on it, do you think Havasu housing or houses in general are going to be more affordable in 10 years or less? Given the last 50 years of data on pricing and wage growth, that answer is abundantly clear. If you find what you want at a price you can live with.. buy it.

 

[HNL2LHC]

To buy used pontoons or twenty-year-old custom boats with hour meters pegged on rebuild?

Boat demand will uptick based on seasonality. The bottom did not fall out this winter. Maybe next, Maybe never.

As we have talked Jeff the last couple of years the used boat market has been limited Like housing. Unless of course you have unlimited funds. Oh well as least we are having fund from time to time.

 

[JL95]

No one including myself wants to give up the sweet sweet 2.75% apr rates we got

 

[Dalton]

Smart money says wait it out.

What’s that saying about real estate, the best time to buy was yesterday?

But I do generally agree with you, smart money is only interested in great deals…..

 

[Gelcoater]

Jeezus! I feel like I'm dealing with my kids in the back seat of the car! How old are you two?? Can we stop with the two-man circle jerk? You two know how to f-up a perfectly good adult discussion. I appreciate all of the useful data and information on this thread, which is why I keep weeding through your bullshit to see it. Grow up already! Or meet up in person and throw down like men and get it over with!

I love a good internet bitchslap.

 

[rrrr]

From the Dallas Morning News on 1/23/23:


BUSINESS REAL ESTATE

Dallas-Fort Worth’s 38% decline in new home construction is the largest since 2009​

A lower level of homebuilding could bring lower costs for buyers and help relieve supply-chain issues.​

Home construction continues Jan. 7 at Princeton Crossroads, a 297-acre master planned mixed-use development in Princeton.(Smiley N. Pool / Staff Photographer)
By Mitchell Parton
2:13 PM on Jan 9, 2023

The end of 2022 marked the largest decline in quarterly North Texas home starts since the Great Recession as buyers pulled back due to higher mortgage rates and affordability challenges. Builders began construction of almost 8,000 new homes in Dallas-Fort Worth in the fourth quarter, down 38% from a year ago when they started just over 12,900 homes, according to a new report from Dallas-based housing analyst Residential Strategies.

The third quarter’s decline of 33% from a year earlier was the first decline of more than 30% since the Great Recession, according to Residential Strategies data. The last time the region saw a steeper drop in home construction was in the second quarter of 2009, when starts fell almost 50%.

For all of 2022, builders started about 48,700 homes, down 16% from a year before.

“Today builders are primarily focused on completing and closing housing inventory,” said Ted Wilson, principal with Residential Strategies, in the report. “Builders are adjusting to lower levels of housing demand brought about by higher mortgage rates.”

Sales of new homes were up last quarter as builders worked to complete the record amount of new construction they started earlier this year and in 2021. In the fourth quarter, builders closed almost 12,000 home sales, up 3% from the fourth quarter of 2021. Builders closed about 50,300 sales in all of 2022, up 9.2% from 2021.

About 32,400 homes were still under construction at the end of 2022, down 33% from the peak of roughly 43,000 homes underway in the second quarter.

Given the uncertainty of construction costs in the market over the past few years, many D-FW builders took a “spec-and-release” approach, starting homes in anticipation of demand and releasing them for sale late in the construction process when costs and margins were more clear. Builders who took this approach are now having to provide incentives like mortgage-rate buydowns and discounts to get the homes to sell.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

What’s that saying about real estate, the best time to buy was yesterday?

But I do generally agree with you, smart money is only interested in great deals…..

I heard a saying from a now deceased renter that the best time to buy is during a financial collapse thst may or may not happen in your lifetime.

 

[HNL2LHC]

What’s that saying about real estate, the best time to buy was yesterday?

But I do generally agree with you, smart money is only interested in great deals…..

It also depends on how long you are going to own the property. I always say that if you are going to have it for at least 5 years most likely you will break even. But if you had to you could always rent the property. It is great having someone else pay your mortgage. Especially when rents have doubled in the 15 years you have rented it plus tripled in value. Then do that a few times.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

From the Dallas Morning News on 1/23/23:


BUSINESS REAL ESTATE

Dallas-Fort Worth’s 38% decline in new home construction is the largest since 2009​

A lower level of homebuilding could bring lower costs for buyers and help relieve supply-chain issues.​

Home construction continues Jan. 7 at Princeton Crossroads, a 297-acre master planned mixed-use development in Princeton.(Smiley N. Pool / Staff Photographer)
By Mitchell Parton
2:13 PM on Jan 9, 2023

The end of 2022 marked the largest decline in quarterly North Texas home starts since the Great Recession as buyers pulled back due to higher mortgage rates and affordability challenges. Builders began construction of almost 8,000 new homes in Dallas-Fort Worth in the fourth quarter, down 38% from a year ago when they started just over 12,900 homes, according to a new report from Dallas-based housing analyst Residential Strategies.

The third quarter’s decline of 33% from a year earlier was the first decline of more than 30% since the Great Recession, according to Residential Strategies data. The last time the region saw a steeper drop in home construction was in the second quarter of 2009, when starts fell almost 50%.

For all of 2022, builders started about 48,700 homes, down 16% from a year before.

“Today builders are primarily focused on completing and closing housing inventory,” said Ted Wilson, principal with Residential Strategies, in the report. “Builders are adjusting to lower levels of housing demand brought about by higher mortgage rates.”

Sales of new homes were up last quarter as builders worked to complete the record amount of new construction they started earlier this year and in 2021. In the fourth quarter, builders closed almost 12,000 home sales, up 3% from the fourth quarter of 2021. Builders closed about 50,300 sales in all of 2022, up 9.2% from 2021.

About 32,400 homes were still under construction at the end of 2022, down 33% from the peak of roughly 43,000 homes underway in the second quarter.

Given the uncertainty of construction costs in the market over the past few years, many D-FW builders took a “spec-and-release” approach, starting homes in anticipation of demand and releasing them for sale late in the construction process when costs and margins were more clear. Builders who took this approach are now having to provide incentives like mortgage-rate buydowns and discounts to get the homes to sell.

Depending on how the recession plays out, there may be a short window of opportunity for the lowest prices at higher rates, depending on when demand pivots and supply is at its highest. At some point supply is gonna start shrinking again upon economic recovery… thst might happen fast if house building stops.

Or does the new slowing new housing supply keep the existing housing markets floating?

 

[attitude]

This highlights some of this discussion… people that bought from 2020 to 2022 with low rates are land locked.

Those that bought before 2020 are sitting on equity and could move don’t want to pay more per month for less.

How this correlates to tax deductions must be going over my head?

I have never really looks at tax deductions, if I can afford the home as is a tax break would just be a bonus. However, if that Freddie Mac calculator is correct it doesn’t seem that being a home owner brings much of a tax break these days.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

How this correlates to tax deductions must be going over my head?

I have never really looks at tax deductions, if I can afford the home as is a tax break would just be a bonus. However, if that Freddie Mac calculator is correct it doesn’t seem that being a home owner brings much of a tax break these days.

It’s less than it used to be but it varies by state. The tax changes during the Trump era capped higher SALT - state and local tax deductions. This hit blue states with high property taxes hardest.

The rent vs own discussion is completely different now vs if you bought prior to mid 2020.

 

[mesquito_creek]

If you aren’t over the 10k salt cap on state and local taxes or don’t understand why, you probably shouldn’t be looking at 800k houses… there, I said it!