For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[Bobby V]

Texas property taxes are no joke.
But they do help keep a lid on prices.

A million dollars buys a very nice home in a very desirable area with great schools Plano, TX.
Take a look at this home I found on Realtor.com
7413 Breakers Ln, Plano
$1,100,000 · 4beds · 4baths

‎Realtor.com: Buy, Sell & Rent

‎Find a home that’s perfect for you with the award-winning, easy-to-use Realtor.com® Real Estate app. The #1 app trusted by real estate professionals* *Based on an Aug. 2023 proprietary survey among real estate professionals. Whether you’re renting, buying, or looking for a home’s estimated...

apps.realtor.com

A million dollars also buys an average home in a questionable neighborhood in a crappy school district in Harbor City, CA.

‎Realtor.com: Buy, Sell & Rent

‎Find a home that’s perfect for you with the award-winning, easy-to-use Realtor.com® Real Estate app. The #1 app trusted by real estate professionals* *Based on an Aug. 2023 proprietary survey among real estate professionals. Whether you’re renting, buying, or looking for a home’s estimated...

apps.realtor.com

Never really liked the outside look of homes in Texas. The all brick and steeple roofs. Not a fan. Inside looks nice though.

 

[HOOTER SLED-]

Texas property taxes are no joke.
But they do help keep a lid on prices.

A million dollars buys a very nice home in a very desirable area with great schools Plano, TX.
Take a look at this home I found on Realtor.com
7413 Breakers Ln, Plano
$1,100,000 · 4beds · 4baths

‎Realtor.com: Buy, Sell & Rent

‎Find a home that’s perfect for you with the award-winning, easy-to-use Realtor.com® Real Estate app. The #1 app trusted by real estate professionals* *Based on an Aug. 2023 proprietary survey among real estate professionals. Whether you’re renting, buying, or looking for a home’s estimated...

apps.realtor.com

A million dollars also buys an average home in a questionable neighborhood in a crappy school district in Harbor City, CA.

‎Realtor.com: Buy, Sell & Rent

‎Find a home that’s perfect for you with the award-winning, easy-to-use Realtor.com® Real Estate app. The #1 app trusted by real estate professionals* *Based on an Aug. 2023 proprietary survey among real estate professionals. Whether you’re renting, buying, or looking for a home’s estimated...

apps.realtor.com

How someone could pay a mil for that place in Harbor Shitty I just don't fucking get. Shithole part of town right there on the "LA strip".

 

[TCHB]

Inventory going up faster than I thought. Almost 400 now

 

[angiebaby]

That statement is not entirely accurate. In fact California Prop 13 Tax Rates are one of the few things keeping the rest of us people who haven’t moved from leaving the state. For instance the house we purchased in 1996 for $195K currently is valued at $1.2M and has a yearly property tax of $3,500. If the same scenario was held in Texas my taxes would be approx $12,000 yearly as they can revalue your house annually.

If the Socialists ever find a way to get rid of Prop 13 there will be an exodus from this state like never seen before!

How much do you pay annually to California in income tax? What about your extra 30 cents a gallon for fuel? DMV fees? I'd guess it's a wash.

 

[Your ad here]

How much do you pay annually to California in income tax? What about your extra 30 cents a gallon for fuel? DMV fees? I'd guess it's a wash.

It will screw over retired people that have been in the same house for an extended period of time. My grandpa will live the rest of his life in the house he build in the late 70's. Property tax is around $7k a year. If prop 13 went away it would go to about $35K a year.

 

[trooper_666]

Waiting til a nice house with a RV garage really drop and looking for a nice Can Am Maverick too. Buckle up

 

[LuauLounge]

CA has been talking of abolishing Prop 13 for the last 50 years. There is too much campaign money out there to insure it doesn’t happen.

 

[Wedgy]

Pretty rich for the builders to squeeze back on the trades for price reductions while we continue to deal with price increases from our vendors and exorbitant overhead at the same time. They can take some off the top of their inflated option profits first but they won't will they.

Beazer Homes pulled this same drop 10% bullshit on Sub's with signed contracts, back in 2007. Greedy Bastards.

 

[Havasu blue label]

What’s the pay scale to Calif I guess it’s a wash

 

[grumpy88]

What’s the pay scale to Calif I guess it’s a wash

If your talking from ca to texas my job was a 30 percent cut . Add in the 2.5 percent property tax for the house we liked and it was a no go . I dont know how Midwest people do it .

 

[Dan Lorenze]

How much do you pay annually to California in income tax? What about your extra 30 cents a gallon for fuel? DMV fees? I'd guess it's a wash.

Probably 13.3%, I rarely buy gas, DMV's fee's are Robbery in CA... No way I can make the money I make in AZ, TX, NV. Not even close to being a "Wash" for me. Everyone's situation is different..

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

What’s the pay scale to Calif I guess it’s a wash

5% hit moving to UT. Laughing all the way to the bank, it was about a 10% effective raise.

 

[TCHB]

Probably 13.3%, I rarely buy gas, DMV's fee's are Robbery in CA... No way I can make the money I make in AZ, TX, NV. Not even close to being a "Wash" for me. Everyone's situation is different..

DMV is not cheap in AZ. They go off MSRP not what you paid. I found out when I bought a six month old RV from California

 

[grumpy88]

DMV is not cheap in AZ. They go off MSRP not what you paid. I found out when I bought a six month old RV from California

Same in Nevada and auto insurance is more .

 

[TCHB]

Same in Nevada and auto insurance is more .

The RV I bought was used six months old from a private party. The California license Fee was $780. I go out to Havadu MVD and the said the fee would be based on $114k MSRP. I told the the lady that I bought it from a private party and he Paid $84k brand new. My new bill was $1281! I appealed it and lost. BS.

 

[CarolynandBob]

If your talking from ca to texas my job was a 30 percent cut . Add in the 2.5 percent property tax for the house we liked and it was a no go . I dont know how Midwest people do it .

Well I have 8 acres on the lake with a covered slip, 30x40 shop and a 3br 2ba home built in 2019, Property tax is a little over 2k a year. They just voted NOT to raise prop tax. Home Insurance is $ 950. Car reg is $38 for 2021 Lexus. Car ins is $ 1200 a year (wife has an accident still on report). Natural gas bill average is $20. Electric in summer is $100 and $40 in winter. (we aren't here in winter, so temp at 55 deg). Water is $30 month. Fiber internet is $60. So I am about 7K all in to live here. Yes if you had a house payment it would be more.

 

[Havasu blue label]

is there a police station local

 

[HB2Havasu]

How much do you pay annually to California in income tax? What about your extra 30 cents a gallon for fuel? DMV fees? I'd guess it's a wash.

I never said I like what’s going on here. I was simply pointing out to the poster I was replying to who said California wants RE Prices to increase so they could get extra income from existing taxpayers which was an inaccurate statement.

If I wasn’t 5 years away from retiring I would probably go to a state with NO or LOW Income Tax and reasonable housing costs. Like I said Prop 13 Tax Rates are one of the few things keeping most of us here. Plus there’s always the weather too, lol

 

[nameisbond]

Some of our markets outside of Vancouver are starting to really fall fast and hard. These places last to rise and are now first to fall.

 

[Havasu blue label]

And home values and lifestyle

 

[bentprops]

The RV I bought was used six months old from a private party. The California license Fee was $780. I go out to Havadu MVD and the said the fee would be based on $114k MSRP. I told the the lady that I bought it from a private party and he Paid $84k brand new. My new bill was $1281! I appealed it and lost. BS.

Check to make sure they based it on the right model, they screwed up on my Montana, i figured it out and went back and got it fixed.

 

[petie6464]

Waiting til a nice house with a RV garage really drop and looking for a nice Can Am Maverick too. Buckle up

You're gonna be waiting until RV garages are old news and the speed car is a classic. . .

 

[pronstar]

Some of our markets outside of Vancouver are starting to really fall fast and hard. These places last to rise and are now first to fall.

View attachment 1133056

Do you think China’s huge financial crises are playing a role, since the Chinese appeared to be big buyers in Vancouver?

 

[nameisbond]

Do you think China’s huge financial crises are playing a role, since the Chinese appeared to be big buyers in Vancouver?

Yes, I think we've lost a good chunk of Chinese money. The market is turning down fast here. Toronto is also going down fast too. I think its going to be worse over 08.

 

[77charger]

This from one of our builders.
In a nut shell we have to give back 10% (even though our costs continue to rise) or they put us out to bid.

Trade Partners,


Market Update


For those of you that were able to attend our trade partner meeting a couple weeks ago, thank you for taking time out of your day to listen to our plans and goals as we navigate this ever changing market. As mentioned in that meeting our ability to pass along increases to the home buyers was already very limited and our ask to you as our direct customer was to simply hold the line. After that meeting the amount of increase requests we have received from many of you did not slow down which is quite disappointing. We do understand that your suppliers are still pushing through increases resulting in your company passing them to us. We simply cannot continue passing these increases to our homebuyers. Our homebuyers respond and message “no” in two different two ways. First they stop purchasing our homes. Secondly, those that have purchased, cancel.



Below is the current chart of the sale data for the Inland Empire from the Ryness Report. You will note that sales are down 27% with cancelations up 141% from this time last year. As you can see, our homebuyers are telling us “no”. In order for us to maintain and keep our current homebuyers and find new ones to say “yes”, we along with other builders in the market and nationally are starting to offer incentives and discounts. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-17/will-home-prices-fall-builders-offer-discounts-as-mortgage-rates-rise). It is not sustainable for us to continue taking cost increases while we are needing to decrease prices just to make sales. We are now at the point where we need to push these same decreases we are being forced to accept as the market changes back down through the supply chain. This unfortunately means they need to go through you.

We need to reduce our house costs by at least 10% in order maintain affordability



This request needs to be treated with the same level of importance as your company’s price increases requests have been for the last 2 years. Trade Partner expectations have been of Richmond to respond to your increases requests with urgency and quick implementation. Our expectation for you is the same. The response Richmond is looking for is for your reply to this request accepting the 10% decrease to your current costs. From there we will work with you directly as to how this will be implemented and the effective phase forward just like we processed increase requests. If Richmond cannot collectively reduce our house costs by 10% as soon as possible, then production paces will be slowed and some communities potentially paused. If you do not accept this cost reduction request, Richmond will be forced to take the work out to bid in an effort to get the costs in alignment in order to keep building homes.



Trade Partners



We have partnered with you in an extremely volatile market for the last couple of years processing your increases quicker than contractually required. We did that because we were partnering with you to implement these increases as you needed them. The reality of it was, if you didn’t get the increases quicker than the contract allowed it would put a financial burden on your company or worse, put you out of business. As your partner, understanding the sensitivity of your pricing requests, Richmond acted in good faith and in the spirit of partnership by responding quickly and effectively. We both rode this wave up together as partners and ask that we continue as partners together as the market adjusts down. We do not want to replace any of you on our jobs. Difficult business decisions may need to be made if we cannot get our costs in alignment with market conditions. We do hope that we can partner together through this ever changing market.



We look forward to hearing from you quickly on this request. As always, please reach out to us as needed.

The simple. We want to make the same amount of profit so you have to eat the loss. Seen plumbing companies go through thus on tract work tgen see others drop prices thinking they are gettin in good with builders

 

[77charger]

DMV is not cheap in AZ. They go off MSRP not what you paid. I found out when I bought a six month old RV from California

Yes true but only for first few years at most. My 04 2500hd went from 370 to 32 bucks in az. My brother in laws new tremor f250 2 years old said cheaper on az than Ca still high but not as much.

 

[cofooter]

Well I have 8 acres on the lake with a covered slip, 30x40 shop and a 3br 2ba home built in 2019, Property tax is a little over 2k a year. They just voted NOT to raise prop tax. Home Insurance is $ 950. Car reg is $38 for 2021 Lexus. Car ins is $ 1200 a year (wife has an accident still on report). Natural gas bill average is $20. Electric in summer is $100 and $40 in winter. (we aren't here in winter, so temp at 55 deg). Water is $30 month. Fiber internet is $60. So I am about 7K all in to live here. Yes if you had a house payment it would be more.

Where is this?

 

[TCHB]

Yes true but only for first few years at most. My 04 2500hd went from 370 to 32 bucks in az. My brother in laws new tremor f250 2 years old said cheaper on az than Ca still high but not as much.

There is a formula how it drops. On the RV it was 7 years.

 

[TCHB]

There is a formula how it drops. On the RV it was 7 years.

Sold the RVs and now stay at A nice hotel.

 

[2Driver]

The RV I bought was used six months old from a private party. The California license Fee was $780. I go out to Havadu MVD and the said the fee would be based on $114k MSRP. I told the the lady that I bought it from a private party and he Paid $84k brand new. My new bill was $1281! I appealed it and lost. BS.

It does go down every year like 16%. I know some guys doing full refurbs on the old GMC class A because the tag was like $65. My H1 tag was $2500 back in 1995. Ooof. The tag on my old land cruiser was about $120, my Gladiator is $750.

 

[c_land]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544528381840044032

Embargoed means he can’t share publicly until the published release date.

 

[Your ad here]

Yes true but only for first few years at most. My 04 2500hd went from 370 to 32 bucks in az. My brother in laws new tremor f250 2 years old said cheaper on az than Ca still high but not as much.

Same here on my 2002 F250. $365 to $32 this year. My F350 has a service bed and is in a grey area in Ca. If I had to declare weight a 15K weight registration would add cost up to probably $2000 and a bunch of paperwork with the state. I had to declare weight here in Az. 15K weight declaration and total registration cost $170 with no additional paperwork or a dumb sticker I would have to put on my truck.

 

[CarolynandBob]

Where is this?

West Tennessee. Near the city of Paris TN. It is rural. People are so damn nice. Most don't have all their teeth, but will still help you if you need it.

Was at the at a Marina yesterday listening to music. Met a couple who actually are not to far from our house. About 3 miles down the road. Was talking to him about his land and the shop he wants to build. Told him how I did mine. Then we talked tractors. Told him I wish I had gotten a back hoe on mine and also a grappler. He said hell if you ever need a back hoe I have a tract hoe that I can put it on the trailer and bring it over. I said that is nice of you, but not sure how long I will need one. He said I will drop it off and leave it. Then call me when you are done. This guy was missing a few teeth and I kind of didn't believe him. When we were leaving he was walking out as well. Got in his new Veranda. I am thinking why didn't you get a cheaper boat and get your teeth fixed. LOL We will see later if he is full of shit or not. When we get back from El Paso we are going over to check out their land.

 

[MSum661]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544528381840044032

Embargoed means he can’t share publicly until the published release date.

That's a fast & steep downward reduction in sales for that area.

The ISM services read today shows that we're not in a recession yet so the Fed rate hikes are a "Go" and at the very same time todays ISM employment data is clearly showing that its starting to roll over. Not exactly a good sign for the narrative of the five or so pollyanna's here, the data messes up their bullishness.

 

[nameisbond]

Toronto is down 41% year over year in June. Vancouver is about the same. Interest rates are rising here and Chinese money has all but disappeared. One high end neighborhood I watch in Vancouver usually has about 30 listings on average. Now its 91 listings and seeing lower prices. Lot's of Chinese money in that hood, its one of Vancouver's wealthiest neighborhoods.

 

[c_land]

I remember Corey used to post stats from the MLS about what normal inventory looked like. I recall. Something about my 12,000 in the Phoenix metro was normal.

Phoenix may be at 2018 inventory in a couple of weeks. View attachment 1130051

Look at the spacing of those last few dots on the 2022 line

Phoenix is above 2018 in terms of active listings. Probably some seasonality in there, but still a giant shift from the trend earlier this year.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546168899221172224

 

[shintoooo]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546167073189003264

 

[RVR SWPR]

2022 could be all new ballgame. Rhetoric of previous recession cycles useless. Washington DC bullshit has become obsolete for many Americans.

CNBC 7/9/22 - Quote
“Job growth accelerated at a much faster pace than expected in JUNE, indicating that the main pillar of the U.S. economy remains strong despite pockets of weakness.”

“Nonfarm payrolls increased 372,000 in the month, better than the 250,000 Dow Jones estimate and continuing what has been a strong year for job growth, according to data Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”
The unemployment rate was 3.6%, unchanged from March

 

[MK1MOD0]

I’ll just say, I find ZERO credibility in ANYTHING the federal government says Anymore. They have lost that during the pandemic. Private data from the trenches is where it’s at.

 

[Danger Dave]

Has anyone been watching how many car loans and leases are over 30 days past due currently? Looking to see if the auto market corrects here in next 2-3 quarters.

 

[WhatExit?]

Just read vehicle repos are way up

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Has anyone been watching how many car loans and leases are over 30 days past due currently? Looking to see if the auto market corrects here in next 2-3 quarters.

If new supply does not meet demand, not sure it will. I dont think supply issues will be “fixed” In the next 2-3 quarters, but if demand falls off, the problems we have now may partially solve themselves.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

the problem with the data is the pandemic skewed everything. The inventory numbers are rebounding off historic lows. I don’t know if it means much. Houses in my area still have high prices though I see some decent price cuts on the asking and there are a handful under $1M now.

The havasu inventory numbers confirms that the market is not crashing. Maybe returning to normal? Phoenix and Austin those graphs are scary but could easily level off. Rates went down late last week? I think I saw that. I think the best stat would be at the currents sales pace how long will it take to sell 100% of the inventory. So homes for sale divided by closed sales in a month.

 

[pronstar]

Has anyone been watching how many car loans and leases are over 30 days past due currently? Looking to see if the auto market corrects here in next 2-3 quarters.

Yup.

There’s a quite a large car-loan bubble, part of which was created when people overpaid for used cars…most of those notes were subprime or worse.

Moving forward, when used prices drop and they owe twice the value of the car, these people ain’t gonna keep making payments.

 

[PaPaG]

Like I have said Many times, IT HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN...prices are going to go down in every single real estate market in AMERICA that has been overblown..Numbers DO NOT LIE...people saying vacation or over blown locations are still good or not going to correct or going to go back to normal levels are still in denial. All the Naysayer talk will not stop this correction, prime rates are estimated to go up another .75 this month, possibly another .75 on the increase after that then possibly .25....and some folks still think interest rates possibly hitting 7-8% for home loans is not going to greatly effect the housing market honestly have no clue. Lets also see the used vehicle market get a nice flood of used vehicle repo sales due to the thousands and thousands of upside down loans once chips start flooding in and vehicles get down to normal corrected prices....Cash buyers sitting by the side, be ready it is going to be a great buying market very soon....Let the Naysaying continue

 

[Done-it-again]

It’s there data showing how many boat loans are in default?

 

[monkeyswrench]

It’s there data showing how many boat loans are in default?

I thought everyone pays cash for their boats?

 

[Done-it-again]

I thought everyone pays cash for their boats?

That’s just RDP’ers. Duh! Lol.

I would assume that they would go first before cars and houses. But I do t see any fire sales on boats yet.

 

[monkeyswrench]

That’s just RDP’ers. Duh! Lol.

I would assume that they would go first before cars and houses. But I do t see any fire sales on boats yet.

I would think SxS's first, but I don't know. I'd think larger payments first, no regard for logic. So the crew cab or suburban for the single guy or young couple would hit the block before the pimp toys.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Like I have said Many times, IT HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN...prices are going to go down in every single real estate market in AMERICA that has been overblown..Numbers DO NOT LIE...people saying vacation or over blown locations are still good or not going to correct or going to go back to normal levels are still in denial. All the Naysayer talk will not stop this correction, prime rates are estimated to go up another .75 this month, possibly another .75 on the increase after that then possibly .25....and some folks still think interest rates possibly hitting 7-8% for home loans is not going to greatly effect the housing market honestly have no clue. Lets also see the used vehicle market get a nice flood of used vehicle repo sales due to the thousands and thousands of upside down loans once chips start flooding in and vehicles get down to normal corrected prices....Cash buyers sitting by the side, be ready it is going to be a great buying market very soon....Let the Naysaying continue

Record low unemployment and a record high quit rate, say otherwise. Employment data is key here. Until job losses start to pile up in high paying positions, then you have a market that is simply going to normalize. Maybe we see a drop in prices but not a huge one. My question to all the "cash buyers", what are you waiting for?? Prices to go back to 2020 levels? How come you just didn't buy back then??