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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

PaPaG

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So there’s no inventory and house prices are going up again?

At what point to we put our hats back on?

While this thread has been interesting to say the least I wouldn’t take the inevitable doom and gloom with too much value..

The fact is nobody knows what happens next even if the writing is on the wall. The writing keeps changing and the can keeps getting kicked down the road.. just like it has been since the US went off the gold standard.

RD
I think by the end of 23 we should see a more solid impact of the financial changes in Fed rate and economy. Some way more smarter than I say mid 2024 we should be closer to full impact. I guess we just wait to see what happens.
 

PaPaG

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Dead cat bounce. Fact is, unemployment will rise (historically when rates are raised, unemployment follows). Payrolls for those with overinflated Covid payroll offers will be cut back down.

People are running out of money. PPP money has been spent, EIDL loans are now coming due. ERC credits are still getting paid out, and some companies are raking in huge on those ERC credits. But it’s all running out and the party is almost over. Grab a hat 🤪
EXACTLY!
 

angiebaby

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In our area it’s less than that.

Are you seeing more than a 10% pullback?

In Reno, absolutely. I know it's just one location, but it's been about a 20% drop so far. Median sales price went from $615K in May '22 to $510 in Jan '23. However, inventory has also dropped significantly from 1300 in July '22 to almost 700 in Jan '23.

According to Montana MLS, Flathead Valley had a median high of $693,500 in early summer. That number is now $566,250 (nearly -20%). The average was $1,022,776 in early summer, and is now $796,846 (-22%).
 
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OldSchoolBoats

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I think by the end of 23 we should see a more solid impact of the financial changes in Fed rate and economy. Some way more smarter than I say mid 2024 we should be closer to full impact. I guess we just wait to see what happens.

Your favorite investment firm says that home prices will increase again in 2024 so what do you have to say in regards to that? This thread will be a year old before we know it. If your predictions don't come to fruition in 2024, what is the next stop.......2025, 2026? Just want to be sure I have my hat ready.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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In Reno, absolutely. I know it's just one location, but it's been about a 20% drop so far. Median sales price went from $615K in May '22 to $510 in Jan '23. However, inventory has also dropped significantly from 1300 in July '23 to almost 700 in Jan '23.

According to Montana MLS, Flathead Valley had a median high of $693,500 in early summer. That number is now $566,250 (nearly -20%). The average was $1,022,776 in early summer, and is now $796,846 (-22%).

Yes. Locations that had the most aggressive climbs have the chance to have the most aggressive pullbacks.

I’m assuming you meant July ‘22 the inventory was higher in the above.

As we have seen, there aren’t going to be “deals” until there is inventory. And there won’t be inventory until people in droves are forced to sell. These owners are still sitting on equity and locked in on historically low rates.
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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Your favorite investment firm says that home prices will increase again in 2024 so what do you have to say in regards to that? This thread will be a year old before we know it. If your predictions don't come to fruition in 2024, what is the next stop.......2025, 2026? Just want to be sure I have my hat ready.

“Around the corner” is the new 18 months.
 
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EmpirE231

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I watch the Southbay. Torrance, Redondo, Palos Verdes, Rancho Palos Verdes, Lomita, harbor city, harbor gateway. None are close to pre covid. Like mentioned 10% less if that than last year's highs.
Aren’t you helping a lot of people in this area pop in ADU’s so that they can afford to own an otherwise small single family residence?
 
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PaPaG

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Your favorite investment firm says that home prices will increase again in 2024 so what do you have to say in regards to that? This thread will be a year old before we know it. If your predictions don't come to fruition in 2024, what is the next stop.......2025, 2026? Just want to be sure I have my hat ready.
Who is my Favorite investment firm? I read info from almost every major credible firm on wall street. Funny how I stated clearly 6 by 18 months which put us at end of 23, then after some more info came out I said it could go to 24 as most of wall street says. Remember if ANYONE thinks a specific date is FACT they are wrong, be open to movement, be open to adjustments, be open to updated information, be open to facts changing and adjust thoughts is how I decide my financial information and I have done extremely well by being flexible and not stuck in a one thought process like some in the housing market that refuse to budge on their thoughts. We will see more excuses from the supposed housing experts here how 20-25% lower asking prices are just adjustments and not corrections...I just laugh.
 

EmpirE231

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Yes. Locations that had the most aggressive climbs have the chance to have the most aggressive pullbacks.

I’m assuming you meant July ‘22 the inventory was higher in the above.

As we have seen, there aren’t going to be deals until there is inventory. And there won’t be inventory until people in droves are forced to sell. They are still sitting on equity and historically low rates.
Most places outside of CA and NY had aggressive climbs, if you’re looking at % spread
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Most places outside of CA and NY had aggressive climbs, if you’re looking at % spread

Nationwide prices climbed aggressively relative to historical standards. It is easy to pick out the places that grew the most.

Even giving up Covid gains in the most aggressive market drops you can find in the country and 5+% interest does not seem to be motivating people to sell.. because they are better off doing nothing.

Like I’ve said, no one is giving up their low mortgage until they are forced to. That's why the market is the way it is right now.

All of these low rates obtained in the last 12 years are going to change the complexion of the market for a generation until most of these people are out of those loans.
 

NicPaus

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Aren’t you helping a lot of people in this area pop in ADU’s so that they can afford to own an otherwise small single family residence?
No. They are landlords adding them to collect additional rent. Make there SFR a duplex.

I have a ADU but it's used for storage until I build a garage.

Trying to get plans approved to add 3 ADUs and 1 more SFR to my other property i moved from. Partner on that priperty. Will bring in $15k to 17K a month in rent. Depending on current rent market is when completed.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Aren’t you helping a lot of people in this area pop in ADU’s so that they can afford to own an otherwise small single family residence?

I don’t think anyone has ever said the following -

“I can’t afford my small SFR mortgage today so let me throw down another $200k on an ADU that will take me 8-10 years to see ROI on, at which point I can afford my mortgage.”
 

Havasu blue label

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So there’s no inventory and house prices are going up again?

At what point to we put our hats back on?

While this thread has been interesting to say the least I wouldn’t take the inevitable doom and gloom with too much value..

The fact is nobody knows what happens next even if the writing is on the wall. The writing keeps changing and the can keeps getting kicked down the road.. just like it has been since the US went off the gold standard.

RD
How many homes are going up but do they sell at that price probably just playing Zillow it changes the days on the market
 

Havasu blue label

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Your favorite investment firm says that home prices will increase again in 2024 so what do you have to say in regards to that? This thread will be a year old before we know it. If your predictions don't come to fruition in 2024, what is the next stop.......2025, 2026? Just want to be sure I have my hat ready.
Your hat is ready you open up a new business
 

PaPaG

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We launched 5 months ago and I began pivoting towards it in November of 2021.

You know......trying to be that smart money.
And you yourself admitted things were slowing and you saw it so you decided to open a new business to hedge... I am glad you had open eyes and have nothing but success in your new venture, it is a great business that is for sure, Good luck.
 

attitude

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According to the snowflakes on Reddit, lots of companies are getting rid of work from home or going to partial WFH. Recruiters are getting tired of people only wanting fully remote positions.

My company hasn’t been able to find any new hires during COVID but this week we’ve had 6-7 new people start. Is the free money running out?
 

Englewood

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EIDL loans are now coming due.
Mark my words...Nobody is paying those back. If it was under $200k, it didn't even have a personal guarantee... BK the corp and start again. The fraud associated with EIDL/PPP is beyond words. I imagine you won't hear much as the dems wanted all the free money avail.

Some needed it, many did not.
 

Looking Glass

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Mark my words...Nobody is paying those back. If it was under $200k, it didn't even have a personal guarantee... BK the corp and start again. The fraud associated with EIDL/PPP is beyond words. I imagine you won't hear much as the dems wanted all the free money avail.

Some needed it, many did not.


MANY Did Not Need It. Banks had to participate with the Applicants and are just as Guilty!!:confused:
 

Gonefishin5555

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bonesfab

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TimeBandit

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Did you see the property taxes??? Holy shit thats a house payment by itself.
This one thing keeps my wife's idea of moving "closer to the grandkids" at bay.

Moving now to even a house that is worth roughly the same would double our property taxes.
 

Looking Glass

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Your favorite investment firm says that home prices will increase again in 2024 so what do you have to say in regards to that? This thread will be a year old before we know it. If your predictions don't come to fruition in 2024, what is the next stop.......2025, 2026? Just want to be sure I have my hat ready.


This Must be true!!, It's on the Internet.;)
 

El Rojo

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Prop 13 does not help you much when the house prices are astronomical.

Wait until they get that abolished :)
This one thing keeps my wife's idea of moving "closer to the grandkids" at bay.

Moving now to even a house that is worth roughly the same would double our property taxes.
Didn't a prop get passed in CA that if you're over 52 or something that you can roll your existing property tax amount into a new residence?
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Didn't a prop get passed in CA that if you're over 52 or something that you can roll your existing property tax amount into a new residence?

Yep. You could do that before, but that prop expanded some of those limits and moved them to more expensive properties as well.

It also said you also can’t pass that property tax rate to your kids upon your death unless they live there. All
property gets reassessed at the market rate.
 

pronstar

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Half my mortgage payment is property taxes.

I pay around 2.4% IIRC…relatively high property taxes work against rapid price appreciation. So we get slower, more controlled appreciation.
 

brgrcru

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I watch the Southbay. Torrance, Redondo, Palos Verdes, Rancho Palos Verdes, Lomita, harbor city, harbor gateway. None are close to pre covid. Like mentioned 10% less if that than last year's highs.
My son is looking for a house in the South Bay
His machine shop is in Hawthorne

Most of that area
prices never fall to much
Sad that they have to look into something in the 1 mil + for there first house
 

NicPaus

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My son is looking for a house in the South Bay
His machine shop is in Hawthorne

Most of that area
prices never fall to much
Sad that they have to look into something in the 1 mil + for there first house
Let me know what area if I hear of anything not listed I will hit him up. I work with a great realtor also if he needs 1. There are houses for less but need work. One just closed on my block for 825k. Realtor had the offer in first day. By 2nd day there was number more offfers.
 

Hypnautic

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Yep. You could do that before, but that prop expanded some of those limits and moved them to more expensive properties as well.

It also said you also can’t pass that property tax rate to your kids upon your death unless they live there. All
property gets reassessed at the market rate.
There are ways around a reassessment.
Property needs be held in a LLC. Now LLC owns property and parents can transfer ownership of LLC to Heirs upon passing.
This is a valuable way to save if the Heirs plan on keeping property as the Heirs would lose the "step-up appreciation"
If the Heirs plan to sell the property--then the LLC holds no advantage.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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There are ways around a reassessment.
Property needs be held in a LLC. Now LLC owns property and parents can transfer ownership of LLC to Heirs upon passing.
This is a valuable way to save if the Heirs plan on keeping property as the Heirs would lose the "step-up appreciation"
If the Heirs plan to sell the property--then the LLC holds no advantage.

Yes. The average homeowner is not going to do that though.

I explored that with my parents, but they are moving anyway so it’s a non issue.
 

Hypnautic

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Yes. The average homeowner is not going to do that though.

I explored that with my parents, but they are moving anyway so it’s a non issue.
Since we are on this related topic--let me throw this out too.

You, or your aging Parents, need to research inheritance tax on the state they live in or have assets in. There are some unfavorable states you do not want to die in.

Example--my Parents reside in Oregon. If both pass while they reside in OR, the State will tax their entire estate if it is valued at more than $1MM. Not just the estate in OR, but the entire estate. Cars, jewelry, property in other states, bank accounts, collectable, everything. They actually send out an auditor (that bills their estate) to determine market value of these items upon passing.
Another reason organizing your investment properties under an LLC is important. The ownership of the property is now under the LLC, they just own the controlling shares of the LLC that can transfer easier and without reassessment upon death. Cost is about $5000 in CA . Each property should have its own LLC to reduce the LLC assets value in case of lawsuit.

In short--dont die in OR
 

TimeBandit

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Since we are on this related topic--let me throw this out too.

You, or your aging Parents, need to research inheritance tax on the state they live in or have assets in. There are some unfavorable states you do not want to die in.

Example--my Parents reside in Oregon. If both pass while they reside in OR, the State will tax their entire estate if it is valued at more than $1MM. Not just the estate in OR, but the entire estate. Cars, jewelry, property in other states, bank accounts, collectable, everything. They actually send out an auditor (that bills their estate) to determine market value of these items upon passing.
Another reason organizing your investment properties under an LLC is important. The ownership of the property is now under the LLC, they just own the controlling shares of the LLC that can transfer easier and without reassessment upon death. Cost is about $5000 in CA . Each property should have its own LLC to reduce the LLC assets value in case of lawsuit.

In short--dont die in OR
Won't the transfer of a property from an individual's name to that of an LLC trigger a taxable event?
 

badgas

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After 55 you could move your property taxes over in certain areas
As part of Prop 19 you can can now move your property taxes after age 55 to any county in the State. It used to b that the county you were moving to had to reciprocate. You can also mke that move if you were displaced by a wildfire.
 

Hypnautic

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Won't the transfer of a property from an individual's name to that of an LLC trigger a taxable event?
No--since the controlling interest of the LLC (now owner of property) remains with the original owner, there is no triggering event. The property simply moves from a personal asset to a business asset.
In our case--my sister and I have an ownership interest in the LLC as well, but our interest combined is less than 50%. When LLC first established we only shared 1% and parents gifted us ownership each year--but they need to keep controlling interest or that would trigger a taxable event.
Now that 1% was a taxable amount but negligible, it was required to be listed as a Partner on the LLC.
 

Hypnautic

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As part of Prop 19 you can can now move your property taxes after age 55 to any county in the State. It used to b that the county you were moving to had to reciprocate. You can also mke that move if you were displaced by a wildfire.
But that only applies to your primary residence. Prop 19 excluded investment and commercial. That is how CA left the door open to abolish Prop 13
 

badgas

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But that only applies to your primary residence. Prop 19 excluded investment and commercial. That is how CA left the door open to abolish Prop 13
Correct but he was asking about moving closer to his Grandkids and did not want to move and raise his taxes.
 

Orange Juice

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This looks like a nice deal in Phoenix. Also not a bad ROI. 😉
 
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