WELCOME TO RIVER DAVES PLACE

For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

Cdog

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I just sold a home in NE Scottsdale just under a million and listed this two weeks ago. Views on Zillow are strong. I expect to have it sold in another week or so.


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just_floatin

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Translation… be poor elsewhere.
Actually it pays to be poor! 1% down and no PMI if you qualify under the threshold. What could possibly go wrong……again?
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pronstar

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The downside is that it sold to an inpatient teen drug rehab place....

Guy who used to work for me, his sister is a licensed drug therapist or something like that.

They buy homes in nice areas that are adjacent to wealthy areas. They had several houses near Loyola Marymount for example.
For teens in drug rehab, the house is the last step before returning to society.

They put 2 teens per room, have a house manager living there, and they provide a car for the house manager to run errands. It’s a very structured situation.

This was close to 10 years ago, and they charged $3k per teen per month, I’m sure they charge a lot more today.

Copy/repeat this over a few 4BR houses and you’ve got a nice source of income 👍
 

Todd Mohr

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Guy who used to work for me, his sister is a licensed drug therapist or something like that.

They buy homes in nice areas that are adjacent to wealthy areas. They had several houses near Loyola Marymount for example.
For teens in drug rehab, the house is the last step before returning to society.

They put 2 teens per room, have a house manager living there, and they provide a car for the house manager to run errands. It’s a very structured situation.

This was close to 10 years ago, and they charged $3k per teen per month, I’m sure they charge a lot more today.

Copy/repeat this over a few 4BR houses and you’ve got a nice source of income 👍
I sold a bunch of vans to a company in Reno that had over 20 homes, they were making bank, all paid by the feds (us).
 

EmpirE231

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Guy who used to work for me, his sister is a licensed drug therapist or something like that.

They buy homes in nice areas that are adjacent to wealthy areas. They had several houses near Loyola Marymount for example.
For teens in drug rehab, the house is the last step before returning to society.

They put 2 teens per room, have a house manager living there, and they provide a car for the house manager to run errands. It’s a very structured situation.

This was close to 10 years ago, and they charged $3k per teen per month, I’m sure they charge a lot more today.

Copy/repeat this over a few 4BR houses and you’ve got a nice source of income 👍
I’ve heard this one is close to 30k per month. Not sure who would spend that kinda scratch on their loser teenager.
 

Sportin' Wood

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The buyer waiting for the crash… View attachment 1234052
It is kind of a shame that this thread is a competition and not a conversation.


If someone sold a house at the perceived top of the market they need a pretty decent plan to delay the repurchase of a home because unless they have multiple RE investments they have to live somewhere. In the US it takes some effort to sell a house and delay a purchase. It also carries significant costs.

These memes seem pretty ignorant. I doubt there are families living in a van waiting for a market crash, but hey what do I know I live in an RV, and I don't see a lot of that behavior, but I did last the rare case summer. Investors are looking at multiple options not just R.E.

The flip side to this is foolish people who get FOMO and will pay anything to win a house with multiple offers. Neither of you would do that, but I get the impression that some people who make a living off selling real estate, or mortgages are happy to take advantage of those fools and hope to drive the continued FOMO narrative. There are always non-value add Pikers.

We are shopping, and have been for a while. So long I've passed on houses that are already back on the market for attractive increases, that prove your points effectively. Hindsight is 20/20 but past results do not guarantee future results. Both sides who choose to argue a point in this thread have shared their experience, the downside is the balance gets upset when one side pokes fun at the other and people are driven away or are no longer comfortable posting.

I find it really a bummer that this thread is a competition and not a conversation. I guess I feel that way about the whole RDP community come to think of it. The place sure has changed over a decade. Some really cool and smart people have left the chat.
 

530RL

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It is kind of a shame that this thread is a competition and not a conversation.


If someone sold a house at the perceived top of the market they need a pretty decent plan to delay the repurchase of a home because unless they have multiple RE investments they have to live somewhere. In the US it takes some effort to sell a house and delay a purchase. It also carries significant costs.

These memes seem pretty ignorant. I doubt there are families living in a van waiting for a market crash, but hey what do I know I live in an RV, and I don't see a lot of that behavior, but I did last the rare case summer. Investors are looking at multiple options not just R.E.

The flip side to this is foolish people who get FOMO and will pay anything to win a house with multiple offers. Neither of you would do that, but I get the impression that some people who make a living off selling real estate, or mortgages are happy to take advantage of those fools and hope to drive the continued FOMO narrative. There are always non-value add Pikers.

We are shopping, and have been for a while. So long I've passed on houses that are already back on the market for attractive increases, that prove your points effectively. Hindsight is 20/20 but past results do not guarantee future results. Both sides who choose to argue a point in this thread have shared their experience, the downside is the balance gets upset when one side pokes fun at the other and people are driven away or are no longer comfortable posting.

I find it really a bummer that this thread is a competition and not a conversation. I guess I feel that way about the whole RDP community come to think of it. The place sure has changed over a decade. Some really cool and smart people have left the chat.
Humans are by design fundamentally competitive.

We have threads about how thieves suck, followed with threads on how to steal video programming/PPV specials and other entertainment with a "magic" box.

We have threads about how no one should pay a dealer more than invoice for a new vehicle, followed with threads about how dealerships charging a penny over MSRP are ripping people off.

The list can go on and on about the juxtapositions of a competitive society. And rarely does anyone ever change anybody's position, but it is still interesting to try to understand the thought process of those that have a different view. Like most things in life, from work to personal interactions, I have just learned to ignore the noise in the delivery.

Otherwise, the only person left to talk to is my dog........
 

LargeOrangeFont

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It is kind of a shame that this thread is a competition and not a conversation.


If someone sold a house at the perceived top of the market they need a pretty decent plan to delay the repurchase of a home because unless they have multiple RE investments they have to live somewhere. In the US it takes some effort to sell a house and delay a purchase. It also carries significant costs.

These memes seem pretty ignorant. I doubt there are families living in a van waiting for a market crash, but hey what do I know I live in an RV, and I don't see a lot of that behavior, but I did last the rare case summer. Investors are looking at multiple options not just R.E.

The flip side to this is foolish people who get FOMO and will pay anything to win a house with multiple offers. Neither of you would do that, but I get the impression that some people who make a living off selling real estate, or mortgages are happy to take advantage of those fools and hope to drive the continued FOMO narrative. There are always non-value add Pikers.

We are shopping, and have been for a while. So long I've passed on houses that are already back on the market for attractive increases, that prove your points effectively. Hindsight is 20/20 but past results do not guarantee future results. Both sides who choose to argue a point in this thread have shared their experience, the downside is the balance gets upset when one side pokes fun at the other and people are driven away or are no longer comfortable posting.

I find it really a bummer that this thread is a competition and not a conversation. I guess I feel that way about the whole RDP community come to think of it. The place sure has changed over a decade. Some really cool and smart people have left the chat.

It happens in every almost thread on nearly every topic. This is a for profit site, and when profits, clicks, traffic are put ahead of meaningful content, things get diluted. This and other threads become a competition when people start flat dismissing information that does not fit their narrative.

It also becomes a competition when people in the RE industry (or any industry) are derided as “just out to make money”. That does not seem to happen in the solar, pool, HVAC or other trade related threads. I’m still not sure why people have such a visceral reaction to RE pricing. If someone (buyer or seller) is dumb, it is not the job of a mortgage lender or RE broker to “re-educate” them or be their financial advisor.

However there are still great points and conversations across the entire thread. I would challenge anyone find someone in here that said RE wouldn’t go down in price when these specific discussions started about 15 months ago.

Most people in here are in general alignment about the current market and risks. Everyone absorbs information through their own lens, and the perspectives in here are great. Like anything worth anything, the good nuggets take some digging through some garbage and name calling. It is what it is.

On the other hand, there have been consistent doom and gloom RE threads for at least 8 years.. That’s why you get the memes. Dismissing the RE professionals input, particularly the members on this site, I’d argue is just as ignorant as the memes.

FWIW I hope you find exactly what you want for a price you are willing to live with. Watching my parents going through this with a new house build, a house sale, and a move has been interesting.
 

Cdog

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It is kind of a shame that this thread is a competition and not a conversation.


If someone sold a house at the perceived top of the market they need a pretty decent plan to delay the repurchase of a home because unless they have multiple RE investments they have to live somewhere. In the US it takes some effort to sell a house and delay a purchase. It also carries significant costs.

These memes seem pretty ignorant. I doubt there are families living in a van waiting for a market crash, but hey what do I know I live in an RV, and I don't see a lot of that behavior, but I did last the rare case summer. Investors are looking at multiple options not just R.E.

The flip side to this is foolish people who get FOMO and will pay anything to win a house with multiple offers. Neither of you would do that, but I get the impression that some people who make a living off selling real estate, or mortgages are happy to take advantage of those fools and hope to drive the continued FOMO narrative. There are always non-value add Pikers.

We are shopping, and have been for a while. So long I've passed on houses that are already back on the market for attractive increases, that prove your points effectively. Hindsight is 20/20 but past results do not guarantee future results. Both sides who choose to argue a point in this thread have shared their experience, the downside is the balance gets upset when one side pokes fun at the other and people are driven away or are no longer comfortable posting.

I find it really a bummer that this thread is a competition and not a conversation. I guess I feel that way about the whole RDP community come to think of it. The place sure has changed over a decade. Some really cool and smart people have left the chat.

I bring facts, real life data and my best analysis based on 21years in the business to the conversation along with some humor. I never attack anyone. Sometimes the data isn’t what the end is near folks want to see so they marginalize my statements suggesting it’s a sales ploy. That’s fine. I’ve been proven more correct than wrong.

But that’s part of the give & take of the conversation. It’s why we keep coming back to see what’s next.

Am I wrong?
 

NicPaus

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Inventory is still crazy low in the Southbay. I talked with my realtor other day. 2 of the realtors in her office that have been in the game for over 20 years. Have not closed a deal yet this year. They are top agents. No inventory to sell. People are not trying to get out of a 3% Mortgage for a 6%.

If we could predict the housing market we would all be rich. I have made good money at a young age and then lost everything trying make more. I should of never sold my first house but all those fun years and Memories of going to Glamis every other weekend and Naci would of never happened. My approach now is buy and keep for the long haul. I only need 2 or 3 properties to accomplish my end goal.
 

Orange Juice

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place around the corner just sold for 2.5M in about a week.

The downside is that it sold to an inpatient teen drug rehab place....
No one wants to commute to work😉.

We have a house down the street that runs a day care for kids (approx. 8-12), with some form of Down’s syndrome. I see them outside playing basketball/football in the driveway occasionally, or a few of them on a supervised walk in the neighborhood. So far no issues, but I live 6 house down.
 

Sportin' Wood

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FWIW I hope you find exactly what you want for a price you are willing to live with. Watching my parents going through this with a new house build, a house sale, and a move has been interesting.
Thankfully we are in a position we can be picky. We did buy an investment house in June 2021, when the hardline doom and gloom people said the world was crashing due to a 5.5% mortgage rate. However, we have set rules that we try and maintain regarding suitable prices. For me, they are fundamental hedges against a significant downturn that I believe limit my risk. I could be completely wrong, or way too safe, no one knows for sure.

I've made no secrets about the pain the 2008 crash caused us and I am very cautious as a result. Reading the various viewpoints here helps me validate or break my own theory. It is crazy to me to see asking prices in 2023 that are double 2021 prices and the homeowner did nothing. I'm sure some of it is jealousy, but damn when they made no improvements, and speculation is the only driver, that frankly pisses me off and I won't contribute to the problem by purchasing, but good for them for taking the risk, and winning.

I'm pretty much over the nomadic lifestyle. I miss my shop. I shop every day across multiple states in multiple areas looking for a home. I'm just not willing to pay $450 plus a square foot. If this nonsense does not settle down, I will find some dirt and build in a place that does not require building permits, has good water, and has low taxes.

FWIW I've seen at least a dozen new listings receive multiple offers this season within the first twenty-four hours so the crash aint here yet. If it has a reasonable price FOMO is alive and well. I almost caught it last week on an LHC house that was damn nice and broke all my rules. YOLO was a strong bitch last week.
 

Englewood

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Inventory is still crazy low in the Southbay. I talked with my realtor other day. 2 of the realtors in her office that have been in the game for over 20 years. Have not closed a deal yet this year. They are top agents. No inventory to sell. People are not trying to get out of a 3% Mortgage for a 6%.
Same thing is happening to all of my agents. There is just nothing on the market to sell. I don't see much changing unless rates come back down.
 

Cdog

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Thankfully we are in a position we can be picky. We did buy an investment house in June 2021, when the hardline doom and gloom people said the world was crashing due to a 5.5% mortgage rate. However, we have set rules that we try and maintain regarding suitable prices. For me, they are fundamental hedges against a significant downturn that I believe limit my risk. I could be completely wrong, or way too safe, no one knows for sure.

I've made no secrets about the pain the 2008 crash caused us and I am very cautious as a result. Reading the various viewpoints here helps me validate or break my own theory. It is crazy to me to see asking prices in 2023 that are double 2021 prices and the homeowner did nothing. I'm sure some of it is jealousy, but damn when they made no improvements, and speculation is the only driver, that frankly pisses me off and I won't contribute to the problem by purchasing, but good for them for taking the risk, and winning.

I'm pretty much over the nomadic lifestyle. I miss my shop. I shop every day across multiple states in multiple areas looking for a home. I'm just not willing to pay $450 plus a square foot. If this nonsense does not settle down, I will find some dirt and build in a place that does not require building permits, has good water, and has low taxes.

FWIW I've seen at least a dozen new listings receive multiple offers this season within the first twenty-four hours so the crash aint here yet. If it has a reasonable price FOMO is alive and well. I almost caught it last week on an LHC house that was damn nice and broke all my rules. YOLO was a strong bitch last week.
I can help you build a real nice home here in N Scottsdale/Rio Verde for $200 a sqft not including land. Land is 100-200k for 1-2 Acres. You'll likely have equity when you move in. I get it if it's not where you want to be but you need to have some trust in the right people and let them show you the way.
 

Sportin' Wood

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Same thing is happening to all of my agents. There is just nothing on the market to sell. I don't see much changing unless rates come back down.
So if demand is outpacing inventory how are the builders doing? Lumber prices seem to be falling which leads me to believe the builders are seeing something the rest of us may not see. The public companies should be able to price in rate buy downs, so if demand is high they should be crushing it right now. Seems the perfect setup for builders if they have demand.
 

EmpirE231

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So if demand is outpacing inventory how are the builders doing? Lumber prices seem to be falling which leads me to believe the builders are seeing something the rest of us may not see. The public companies should be able to price in rate buy downs, so if demand is high they should be crushing it right now. Seems the perfect setup for builders if they have demand.
Lumber, at least at the home depot level, as back to pre-covid prices.
 

Sportin' Wood

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I can help you build a real nice home here in N Scottsdale/Rio Verde for $200 a sqft not including land. Land is 100-200k for 1-2 Acres. You'll likely have equity when you move in. I get it if it's not where you want to be but you need to have some trust in the right people and let them show you the way.
We are tin foil hat-wearing water worry warts. The lack of abundant water sources scares the hell out of us. When I was in middle school our well went dry, it scarred me for life. There are plenty of people in Ohio planning to come your way. They are sick of the snow and the water they have catches fire.
 

Cdog

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We are tin foil hat-wearing water worry warts. The lack of abundant water sources scares the hell out of us. When I was in middle school our well went dry, it scarred me for life. There are plenty of people in Ohio planning to come your way. They are sick of the snow and the water they have catches fire.
Plenty of facts available to disprove your concerns. You’ll be on a private well and 10 miles as a crow flies from a reservoir
 

cofooter

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I’ve heard this one is close to 30k per month. Not sure who would spend that kinda scratch on their loser teenager.
You are paying for it, through your taxes and health care premium. Don't worry, they'll thank you later.........
 

gqchris

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One of my best friends is a RE agent. I trust this guy with my life. But no matter how hard I tell him that I am not buying an 800k shitbox condo in Westminster to live in, he STILL sends me listings that he thinks I should immediately jump on.

I told him to change his MLS to Tennessee/South Utah and start looking for me. But he is not licensed there, so it serves him no purpose because he wont make anything on it. Point of the story, if he was REALLY concerned about my lack of home ownership, he would be searching in areas I told him I want to move to.

I just ignore his bullshit. But it leaves a sour taste in my mouth at times.
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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Thankfully we are in a position we can be picky. We did buy an investment house in June 2021, when the hardline doom and gloom people said the world was crashing due to a 5.5% mortgage rate. However, we have set rules that we try and maintain regarding suitable prices. For me, they are fundamental hedges against a significant downturn that I believe limit my risk. I could be completely wrong, or way too safe, no one knows for sure.

I've made no secrets about the pain the 2008 crash caused us and I am very cautious as a result. Reading the various viewpoints here helps me validate or break my own theory. It is crazy to me to see asking prices in 2023 that are double 2021 prices and the homeowner did nothing. I'm sure some of it is jealousy, but damn when they made no improvements, and speculation is the only driver, that frankly pisses me off and I won't contribute to the problem by purchasing, but good for them for taking the risk, and winning.

I'm pretty much over the nomadic lifestyle. I miss my shop. I shop every day across multiple states in multiple areas looking for a home. I'm just not willing to pay $450 plus a square foot. If this nonsense does not settle down, I will find some dirt and build in a place that does not require building permits, has good water, and has low taxes.

FWIW I've seen at least a dozen new listings receive multiple offers this season within the first twenty-four hours so the crash aint here yet. If it has a reasonable price FOMO is alive and well. I almost caught it last week on an LHC house that was damn nice and broke all my rules. YOLO was a strong bitch last week.

If you have made reasonable safeguards for the investment house and can keep it filled or use it, even in the worst historical scenario, in a decade you will more than likely be fine.

FOMO and/or YOLO is a significant driver in prices. If we were in this situation without the post Covid backdrop, there would certainly be a more significant dip in housing.

Where do you think you land on a bell curve of qualified buyers in sticking to their principles? Even if you say you are average, half the qualified buyers at any given time are willing to pay more than you are. As you have noted there are plenty of people willing to capitulate and buy, they seem to be slowly growing in numbers as time goes on and inventory is thin.

I don’t think we are going back to a 2019 type market for a long time.. if ever because of the stark rate differences. They are still building streets of homes here and people are moving in. If this market keeps putting along for another year or 2 without steep job losses, there won’t be a crash at all, this will be the new normal, those in at 3% will not give up their mortgage and up from there we go.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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One of my best friends is a RE agent. I trust this guy with my life. But no matter how hard I tell him that I am not buying an 800k shitbox condo in Westminster as an investment, he STILL sends me listings that he thinks I should immediately jump on.

I told him to change his MLS to Tennessee/South Utah and start looking for me. But he is not licensed there, so it serves him no purpose because he wont make anything on it. Point of the story, if he was REALLY concerned about my lack of home ownership, he would be searching in areas I told him I want to move to.

I just ignore his bullshit. But it leaves a sour taste in my mouth at times.

I don’t blame you there. If I was gonna spend $800k on investment properties I’d do it across 3-4 properties elsewhere instead of 1 in Westminster.
 

Cdog

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One of my best friends is a RE agent. I trust this guy with my life. But no matter how hard I tell him that I am not buying an 800k shitbox condo in Westminster as an investment, he STILL sends me listings that he thinks I should immediately jump on.

I told him to change his MLS to Tennessee/South Utah and start looking for me. But he is not licensed there, so it serves him no purpose because he wont make anything on it. Point of the story, if he was REALLY concerned about my lack of home ownership, he would be searching in areas I told him I want to move to.

I just ignore his bullshit. But it leaves a sour taste in my mouth at times.
You maybe one of the 3% but 97% of people talk like that their whole lives and never do it. It’s likely just a matter of time until 97% buy the condo.

My best friend has lost out in 2-300k in equity by not listening to my advice. I want to help him succeed. His loss. Over & over
 

hallett21

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One of my best friends is a RE agent. I trust this guy with my life. But no matter how hard I tell him that I am not buying an 800k shitbox condo in Westminster as an investment, he STILL sends me listings that he thinks I should immediately jump on.

I told him to change his MLS to Tennessee/South Utah and start looking for me. But he is not licensed there, so it serves him no purpose because he wont make anything on it. Point of the story, if he was REALLY concerned about my lack of home ownership, he would be searching in areas I told him I want to move to.

I just ignore his bullshit. But it leaves a sour taste in my mouth at times.
How long has he been sending them? Have they appreciated?
 

Havasu blue label

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If you have made reasonable safeguards for the investment house and can keep it filled or use it, even in the worst historical scenario, in a decade you will more than likely be fine.

FOMO and/or YOLO is a significant driver in prices. If we were in this situation without the post Covid backdrop, there would certainly be a more significant dip in housing.

Where do you think you land on a bell curve of qualified buyers in sticking to their principles? Even if you say you are average, half the qualified buyers at any given time are willing to pay more than you are. As you have noted there are plenty of people willing to capitulate and buy, they seem to be slowly growing in numbers as time goes on and inventory is thin.

I don’t think we are going back to a 2019 type market for a long time.. if ever because of the stark rate differences. They are still building streets of homes here and people are moving in. If this market keeps putting along for another year or 2 without steep job losses, there won’t be a crash at all, this will be the new normal, those in at 3% will not give up their mortgage and up from there we go.
Yes they are building there because it’s very affordable . We bought a home in Fargo nd in 2020 very affordable but would never live there
 

gqchris

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You maybe one of the 3% but 97% of people talk like that their whole lives and never do it. It’s likely just a matter of time until 97% but the condo.

My best friend has list out in 2-300k in equity by not listening to my advice. I want to help him succeed. His loss. Over & over
You may be right, and he may feel that way. Hell, I don't know if I really am that person or what side of the fence I am on?

The same thing could be said on my Crypto suggestions to him. He has lost thousands by not following my lead. But its because he is not familiar with it, and vice versa.

I am too old to start in a fixer upper. And I like nice shit, so that prices me out of Socal right away. He knows this.

He is older, so it is boggling to him how I can not be planning for a house to die in. But its not on my top list of must haves at the moment.
 

angiebaby

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Plenty of facts available to disprove your concerns. You’ll be on a private well and 10 miles as a crow flies from a reservoir

The private well that went dry in the 80s was 10 miles from Lake Elsinore and 3 miles from Canyon Lake. Many people in the area had their wells go dry during that time, including the parents of SW, his aunt & uncle a couple of miles away, and my aunt & uncle in between them. So I'm not convinced that a private well in the desert is a guarantee of water supply, though it is a plus IMO. However, too many people and municipalities tapping into any aquafer will eventually drop the levels.

But we appreciate your offer. :)
 

Cdog

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The private well that went dry in the 80s was 10 miles from Lake Elsinore and 3 miles from Canyon Lake. Many people in the area had their wells go dry during that time, including the parents of SW, his aunt & uncle a couple of miles away, and my aunt & uncle in between them. So I'm not convinced that a private well in the desert is a guarantee of water supply, though it is a plus IMO. However, too many people and municipalities tapping into any aquafer will eventually drop the levels.

But we appreciate your offer. :)
I’m trying to find a nice way to say past experiences don’t guarantee future results.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Yes they are building there because it’s very affordable . We bought a home in Fargo nd in 2020 very affordable but would never live there

“Very affordable” is a loose term. Average house price is $650k right now.

These houses going up are $600k-$2M+ And 2500-5000+ sq ft plus depending on location and lot size.
 

D19

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I sell in So Cal and at the River.

So Cal has been back to multiple offers, appraisal contingency waivers, etc for the past 2 months. It's basically back to how it was.

The River is holding but not as strong as So Cal I think due to not as much demand for secondary housing.

The market was dead Nov 2022- March 2023. I told several of my buyer clients "Now is your time! Less competition, Sellers will negotiate, pay for an interest buy down and other concessions."

Some ignored me, said "it's going to crash" and now they regret not buying earlier this year when there was a great window of opportunity.

Typically, the holiday season is the best time to buy a home anyways. Less buyer competition and very motivated sellers.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Interesting how people are buying these homes while prices are high and interest rates are high. Must be making for one hell of a payment.

As opposed to paying ever increasing rents and waiting for the crash?

A client of mine I was talking to yesterday pays almost $5k a month in rent… for an apartment.

At some point you have to stop the bleeding if you wish to become a homeowner. And that answer to that is generally buy as soon as possible.
 
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Sportin' Wood

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If you have made reasonable safeguards for the investment house and can keep it filled or use it, even in the worst historical scenario, in a decade you will more than likely be fine.

FOMO and/or YOLO is a significant driver in prices. If we were in this situation without the post Covid backdrop, there would certainly be a more significant dip in housing.

Where do you think you land on a bell curve of qualified buyers in sticking to their principles? Even if you say you are average, half the qualified buyers at any given time are willing to pay more than you are. As you have noted there are plenty of people willing to capitulate and buy, they seem to be slowly growing in numbers as time goes on and inventory is thin.

I don’t think we are going back to a 2019 type market for a long time.. if ever because of the stark rate differences. They are still building streets of homes here and people are moving in. If this market keeps putting along for another year or 2 without steep job losses, there won’t be a crash at all, this will be the new normal, those in at 3% will not give up their mortgage and up from there we go.
A couple of things to unpack here.
If you have made reasonable safeguards for the investment house and can keep it filled or use it, even in the worst historical scenario, in a decade you will more than likely be fine.
Most my adult life I owned or worked in businesses that carried a significant risk of cash flow loss that could ensure a 10-year return could be realized. I believe many people are in this situation. Today I am in a pretty stable situation but traded it for the ability to produce unlimited earning potential. Again 2008 hurt me badly.


FOMO and/or YOLO is a significant driver in prices. If we were in this situation without the post Covid backdrop, there would certainly be a more significant dip in housing.
Point two we agree. The backstop created different problems. I don't think injecting that liquidity into the market was smart, but we got about $300 all in and I tossed it at a penny stock that got delisted. :) If I was eligible for PPP that was forgiven I might feel differently. BTW some people should come clean that those cash buys they made came from the government. :)

Where do you think you land on a bell curve of qualified buyers in sticking to their principles? Even if you say you are average, half the qualified buyers at any given time are willing to pay more than you are. As you have noted there are plenty of people willing to capitulate and buy, they seem to be slowly growing in numbers as time goes on and inventory is thin.
Fantastic question.
I fall on the more conservative side right now. However, you are asking about people, I'm not confident "People" are the buyers, but rather groups of people as an investment group or corporation that are jacking up or have jacked up prices. They have different risk tolerance because of the financial dynamic of investors, bankruptcy protection, and access to cash. As they leave the pool of buyers we can get back to houses priced more in line with the value. I'm very much a value-driven buyer. Not necessarily a deal buyer, but the value needs to be close to the price. Think Value Proposition here, not the perceived home value in today's market.

I don’t think we are going back to a 2019 type market for a long time.. if ever because of the stark rate differences. They are still building streets of homes here and people are moving in. If this market keeps putting along for another year or 2 without steep job losses, there won’t be a crash at all, this will be the new normal, those in at 3% will not give up their mortgage and up from there we go.

I don't really have an opinion on regional home prices in Utah if that is what you refer to as "Here" Utah is about the best RE investment for the long haul because of the birth rate and demographics. As long as they can get ahold of water conservation, Utah will be fine. If "Here" is LHC, I've got long-term concerns with the Baby boomers leaving, the size of interested GenX buyers, and the lack of perceived interest from the Millennials in the health long term for LHC. The weather is amazing in the winter, but when the snowbirds die off what happens to the LHC Winter money? This could be fixed with good leadership and some investments. There is little industry outside entertainment in LHC, it seems difficult to get to, the size of growth opportunity is limited, and infrastructure is suspect.

I completely overthink almost everything, analysis paralysis. However, in my job playing with Corporate money I make decisions with the snap of a finger it is really weird.
 

angiebaby

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I’m trying to find a nice way to say past experiences don’t guarantee future results.

Sure. But I got the impression you were addressing our concerns about lack of water. Your response was that the property would have a private well and be fairly close to a reservoir (therefore no need to worry?). I offered you an anecdotal example of why that is not a guarantee of a water source. Having first-hand experience with the exact situation you described for security not being secure, I'm not willing to take the risk. You, and others, are free to do so. I'm a historian, so it's difficult for me not to learn from History and practice caution because of it. I'm trying to find a nice way to say that I have absolutely zero desire to live near the Phoenix-Metro area. Many people love it, I know. It's just not for me.
 
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NicPaus

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Interesting how people are buying these homes while prices are high and interest rates are high. Must be making for one hell of a payment.
It's the property taxes that are the killer. But a average payment with tax is between 5-7k unless they have half down. For my area. By the beach in Torrance 8-12k with tax.

My Nieces house in Compton is $4500 with tax.
 

attitude

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As opposed to paying ever increasing rents and waiting for the crash?

A client of mine I was talking to yesterday pays almost $5k a month in rent.
Rents have gone down about 10% since October of last year in Corona.

Rents and mortgages are not even in the same ballpark right now, a first time buyer is looking at at least another $1500 a month over rent for the same house. If I could afford to buy I would…
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Rents have gone down about 10% since October of last year in Corona.

Rents and mortgages are not even in the same ballpark right now, a first time buyer is looking at at least another $1500 a month over rent for the same house. If I could afford to buy I would…

I suppose it depends on what you have to put down. But fast forward that rent another 10-12 years and it will be a payment wash and you’ll have equity in the house..

Rates will be going down at some point and you’ll be able to refi tightening the delta and raising equity at the same time.

Are you factoring in write offs come tax time as well? You’d cut about half that delta away, then minus one car payment and you are there.

No one said home ownership didn’t come with some sacrifice up front. Home ownership is rent control.
 

attitude

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I suppose it depends on what you have to put down. But fast forward that rent another 10-12 years and it will be a payment wash and you’ll have equity in the house..

Rates will be going down at some point and you’ll be able to refi tightening the delta and raising equity at the same time.

Are you factoring in write offs come tax time as well? You’d cut about half that delta away, then minus one car payment and you are there.

No one said home ownership didn’t come with some sacrifice up front. Home ownership is rent control.
The numbers I come up with are based on 3% down and no write offs factored in, assuming the Zillow rates are correct as well.

We love the house we rent right now but the payment on it would be about $5500 compared to the $3000 we pay in rent.

The $4500 mortgage payment houses in Perris and Menifee I look at aren't where I want my kids to go to school at either.

However, the uncertainty of where we are going to live every 12 months is getting old.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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The numbers I come up with are based on 3% down and no write offs factored in, assuming the Zillow rates are correct as well.

We love the house we rent right now but the payment on it would be about $5500 compared to the $3000 we pay in rent.

The $4500 mortgage payment houses in Perris and Menifee I look at aren't where I want my kids to go to school at either.

However, the uncertainty of where we are going to live every 12 months is getting old.

The 3% down makes it tough to crack for sure.
 

attitude

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The 3% down makes it tough to crack for sure.
Definitely, unfortunately having 15-20% down to get rid of PMI just isn’t in the cards.

In a perfect world the house I end up buying will need some TLC and by the time rates come down I will have been able to DYI enough projects to give me the equity required to get rid of PMI when I refinance.
 

Cdog

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I'm trying to find a nice way to say that I have absolutely zero desire to live near the Phoenix-Metro area. Many people love it, I know. It's just not for me.
And this would have been the best response from the get go rather than hypothetical opinions on water sources & availability

What you’re really saying is you can’t get what you want where you want for the price you want to pay
 
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