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Ford Super Duty chip shortage

pronstar

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Look at SE Asia. Outbreaks in Thailand, Vietnam and especially Malaysia are worse than ever. Our factory in Malaysia shutdown two weeks ago. Now struggling to get back to 50% because all the other workers are either in quarantine, scared to come back, or not allowed to travel from rural areas to the factories to work. Its the nightmare all over again but worse. Worse than the start of Covid in March 2020. Can't help but beleive China is next.

[emoji106]
Our factories are all in areas getting slammed by lockdowns.

There’s zero chance that market will get flooded with chips in the next few years.

The ramp-up in demand was happening before covid…the Kung flu just made it worse.


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boatnam2

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91k, I can have you into a 2021 lifted 250 lariat by the weekend, comes with chip 3700 miles on it.
 

MonkeyButt70

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Lets look at this in a different way. Let’s get back to the Analog life. Being a Gen’ Xr I got to experience both worlds and there is no question as to my favorite. Although I know this is not possible, but it would be nice.
 

Bowtiepower00

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If Furd were still making the 7.3 Powerstroke- best engine and truck ever built- this wouldn’t be a problem!!!! Maybe they can combine the modern F150 with the 7.3 and create the greatest truck EVER!
 

Icky

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91k, I can have you into a 2021 lifted 250 lariat by the weekend, comes with chip 3700 miles on it.
That's about what I was quoted for a 2021 3500 mega cab limited today and a 2022 from a different dealer
 

boatnam2

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Seems to be about the going price, I planned on doing a dilligaf and picking up a trailer to cruise around see some of the country, but not sure that is what i want to do now, no reason to have a f-250 if I don't.
 

Ace in the Hole

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Takes a few years to ramp up capacity. Go back to December '20 and count from there. I'm in the industry and we're dying, no real relief in sight unless we see a huge reduction in demand for fab capacity......

I drove around 650 miles today on my way to havasu (will finish tomorrow). I was amazed to see the ford, and Toyota lots bare in El Paso....the Toyota dealer has a used frontier on the rack display out front...

The dealer in Deming (where im at right now, looks like it went out of business (I know it didn't but its crazy to see lots bare). I figure the sales guys/support have to be starting to leave and find other jobs at this point.
 

BHC Vic

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I'm just going to tell you that I went to Jamba Juice this morning and the only size cup they had was a small. You had to order a small and nothing else. It tooks them 20 minutes to make my small smoothie. The sign said it was a nationwide shortage of cups. You can draw your own conclusions to what this means but in general terms the whole fucking economy is just broken. The employees are a bunch of stupid zombies and I don't see any of this getting better soon.
Take it for what’s it’s worth but our IT guy does something IT related for Costco. I’d stock up on toilet paper again because they’ve already limited amounts. I know it sounds stupid and my wife called me an idiot when I told her but I’m an idiot with plenty of toilet paper
 

MonkeyButt70

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Take it for what’s it’s worth but our IT guy does something IT related for Costco. I’d stock up on toilet paper again because they’ve already limited amounts. I know it sounds stupid and my wife called me an idiot when I told her but I’m an idiot with plenty of toilet paper

^^^ And this is how panics are created. Statements like these cause the rush and shortages.
 

BHC Vic

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^^^ And this is how panics are created. Statements like these cause the rush and shortages.
Lol no shutdowns and no supply cause the shortages. Nice try though. I must have missed the statements about the chips that caused this shortage 😂😂
 

Ladsm

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Its effecting my work, we cant get laptops and the chips we use in our robots arent available so kids will have $17hr jobs pushing boxes for another year.

The used market is catching up, auctions are filling up with inventory again and prices are dropping.
 

MonkeyButt70

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Lol no shutdowns and no supply cause the shortages. Nice try though. I must have missed the statements about the chips that caused this shortage 😂😂
Actually the TP shortage was due to a over run of panic. The supply chain accounts for predicted use of consumers and when people panic and hoard the companies are unable to keep up. The chip issue is more complex than that, it was not a panic situation that caused shortages. One of the main reasons for the auto chip problems was the car industry paused their orders thinking cars would not sell and they lost their place in line. The personal computer items ramped up because of demand of people in lockdown and so the chip makers filled the gap where the auto makers left. Now the auto makers went to the back of the line for chips.
 

BHC Vic

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Actually the TP shortage was due to a over run of panic. The supply chain accounts for predicted use of consumers and when people panic and hoard the companies are unable to keep up. The chip issue is more complex than that, it was not a panic situation that caused shortages. One of the main reasons for the auto chip problems was the car industry paused their orders thinking cars would not sell and they lost their place in line. The personal computer items ramped up because of demand of people in lockdown and so the chip makers filled the gap where the auto makers left. Now the auto makers went to the back of the line for chips.
Ok like I said there’s a supply shortage of shit paper and my comment didn’t cause it. Someone with monkeybutt might want to plan ahead
 

BHC Vic

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I have crohns and monkey butt I take my shits seriously 😂
image.jpg
 

4Waters

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Take it for what’s it’s worth but our IT guy does something IT related for Costco. I’d stock up on toilet paper again because they’ve already limited amounts. I know it sounds stupid and my wife called me an idiot when I told her but I’m an idiot with plenty of toilet paper

^^^ And this is how panics are created. Statements like these cause the rush and shortages.

Vic isn't joking, our costco has been out for almost 2 weeks, people are starting to freak out again. SMH
 

was thatguy

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Take it for what’s it’s worth but our IT guy does something IT related for Costco. I’d stock up on toilet paper again because they’ve already limited amounts. I know it sounds stupid and my wife called me an idiot when I told her but I’m an idiot with plenty of toilet paper

Ive got 98 double rolls in the pantry. ...hit up Walmart yesterday!
 

530RL

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Look at SE Asia. Outbreaks in Thailand, Vietnam and especially Malaysia are worse than ever. Our factory in Malaysia shutdown two weeks ago. Now struggling to get back to 50% because all the other workers are either in quarantine, scared to come back, or not allowed to travel from rural areas to the factories to work. Its the nightmare all over again but worse. Worse than the start of Covid in March 2020. Can't help but beleive China is next.


We have not had outbreak issues in our manufacturing in S. Korea or Thailand.

When it became legal on March 1, we purchased vaccines for the Thailand plant and their families and ran a vaccine program. That has certainly helped as Thailand is not as organized as S. Korea with their testing and mitigation efforts.

The big problem is shipping. Exports have been rising faster over the last five years than has growth in shipping tonnage. Then you tag on Covid which impacted container manufacturing and the ability to load and unload due to a shortage of drivers and loaders.

Container premium pricing, meaning it has to go today, is up over 20,000 a container from Asia to Ca. Used to be about 1700. And then once it is here, limited drivers to move it to where it needs to go in the US.

The demand for goods and services in the world simply exceeds the worlds ability to supply goods and services. Worldwide demand already exceeds pre-COVID levels with continuing Covid problems. Not sure how it gets better any time soon?

On the positive side, tons of work for anyone who wants to work.
 

hallett21

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We have not had outbreak issues in our manufacturing in S. Korea or Thailand.

When it became legal on March 1, we purchased vaccines for the Thailand plant and their families and ran a vaccine program. That has certainly helped as Thailand is not as organized as S. Korea with their testing and mitigation efforts.

The big problem is shipping. Exports have been rising faster over the last five years than has growth in shipping tonnage. Then you tag on Covid which impacted container manufacturing and the ability to load and unload due to a shortage of drivers and loaders.

Container premium pricing, meaning it has to go today, is up over 20,000 a container from Asia to Ca. Used to be about 1700. And then once it is here, limited drivers to move it to where it needs to go in the US.

The demand for goods and services in the world simply exceeds the worlds ability to supply goods and services. Worldwide demand already exceeds pre-COVID levels with continuing Covid problems. Not sure how it gets better any time soon?

On the positive side, tons of work for anyone who wants to work.

In regards to chips. Is it not worth the time savings to load a 747 and fly them back in 24 hrs? Vs waiting weeks on a freighter.


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4Waters

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In regards to chips. Is it not worth the time savings to load a 747 and fly them back in 24 hrs? Vs waiting weeks on a freighter.


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Anyone find it weird that this chip shortage is basically only impacting the truck market.
 

HavaToon

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Anyone find it weird that this chip shortage is basically only impacting the truck market.

It’s not only impacting the truck market, it’s impacting many different markets that you don’t hear about. These same chips are used in numerous medical equipment and they are also experiencing the shortage. This isn’t going away and has already been determined to last for three years.


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pronstar

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Anyone find it weird that this chip shortage is basically only impacting the truck market.

Trucks are the biggest selling vehicles, by a long shot. But all cars/carmakers are affected. VW has been hit especially hard and they don’t sell trucks.

Consumer electronics are getting hit hard as well.


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Rye

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Someone told me it hasn’t affected Toyota because their algorithm predicted it. I don’t own or follow Toyota but wondering if this is true?
 

boatpi

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Toyota is getting hard with this issue.
 
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EmpirE231

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Aren’t these chips made by robots? It’s not like there are people creating these chips by hand. This whole “shortage” is fishy.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Someone told me it hasn’t affected Toyota because their algorithm predicted it. I don’t own or follow Toyota but wondering if this is true?

I had read they just didn’t scale back their chip orders. so they kept their place “in line” effectively. That is why it has taken until now for them to see real effects.
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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Aren’t these chips made by robots? It’s not like there are people creating these chips by hand. This whole “shortage” is fishy.

These chip fab foundries only have a certain capacity. It is just like anything else. Bullets, wood, whatever, you name it. They can only make what they can make. It is not scalable without additional investment.

All of these industries are not going to make the investment in new infrastructure to get burned in another 18 months, 2 years, 5 years, when demand drops.

The chip foundries are different in that demand is only going to go up. They were just barely keeping up before covid. Add that hiccup, people thought the economy was gonna tank and cancelled orders.. they go to the back of the line.
 

Bpracing1127

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We are being hit hard too. We make batteries for forklifts in food distribution mostly.
Computer market is hit hard too
 

Bpracing1127

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Als
These chip fab foundries only have a certain capacity. It is just like anything else. Bullets, wood, whatever, you name it. They can only make what they can make. It is not scalable without additional investment.

All of these industries are not going to make the investment in new infrastructure to get burned in another 18 months, 2 years, 5 years, when demand drops.

The chip foundries are different in that demand is only going to go up. They were just barely keeping up before covid. Add that hiccup, people thought the economy was gonna tank and cancelled orders.. they go to the back of the line.
Alsp tooling up a chip foundry is very very costly with all the robotic equipment and clean rooms needed
 

EmpirE231

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These chip fab foundries only have a certain capacity. It is just like anything else. Bullets, wood, whatever, you name it. They can only make what they can make. It is not scalable without additional investment.

All of these industries are not going to make the investment in new infrastructure to get burned in another 18 months, 2 years, 5 years, when demand drops.

The chip foundries are different in that demand is only going to go up. They were just barely keeping up before covid. Add that hiccup, people thought the economy was gonna tank and cancelled orders.. they go to the back of the line.

but the hiccup was maybe 3-4 months before things started rallying again. Idk... seems like there is more to the “shortage” than we’re being told.

it’s already coming to light that lumber and steel markets purposely exacerbated their “shortage” in order to raise pricing significantly.

just strange considering the process of making these chips is 95% automated... not too many humans involved in the process. Also one of the cheapest smallest components.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Alsp tooling up a chip foundry is very very costly with all the robotic equipment and clean rooms needed
Yep. And it is not that green of a process. I had Qualcomm as a customer several years ago and learned a lot about all this. I never thought the knowledge would be useful again lol.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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but the hiccup was maybe 3-4 months before things started rallying again. Idk... seems like there is more to the “shortage” than we’re being told.

it’s already coming to light that lumber and steel markets purposely exacerbated their “shortage” in order to raise pricing significantly.

just strange considering the process of making these chips is 95% automated... not too many humans involved in the process. Also one of the cheapest smallest components.

You have to remember they stopped producing in response to the same hiccup and exhausted all surpluses. No one knew things were gonna rally back, and orders were cancelled. That is why it took another, almost a year for this to really surface. If you have a rolling demand of 1M chips a month and can only make 700,000 chips a month, you can never catch up without demand dropping or adding supply.

Of course lumber and steel prolonged the shortage and price hikes. I’m sure the chip mfgs are too. At the end of the day these are commodity parts and are subject to commodity prices. But we are in a situation where the reserves have been exhausted and all production is going to fill demand.
 

mjc

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but the hiccup was maybe 3-4 months before things started rallying again. Idk... seems like there is more to the “shortage” than we’re being told.

it’s already coming to light that lumber and steel markets purposely exacerbated their “shortage” in order to raise pricing significantly.

just strange considering the process of making these chips is 95% automated... not too many humans involved in the process. Also one of the cheapest smallest components.
Auto manufacturers decided they couldn’t make that many cars during covid so they canceled orders. The manufacturers moved on to other chips and now car companies want there place back in line and are out of luck. As I heard it.
 

EmpirE231

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Well they better get it together! Daddy wants a new 2022 GMC 1500 lol
 

HavaToon

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Auto manufacturers decided they couldn’t make that many cars during covid so they canceled orders. The manufacturers moved on to other chips and now car companies want there place back in line and are out of luck. As I heard it.

Bingo! Intel reviews all orders on a monthly basis and determines the priority accounts and amount of chips they get. Auto companies lost there place in line and thus priority.

My company usually gets around 1k chips a month from Intel just for the US market, our last allotment was 156.


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pronstar

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There’s a bit more to it, but that’s certainly a big chunk of it.

The chip shortage was imminent, and noted in the trades, even before covid.

And with much of Southeast Asia experiencing lockdowns, foundries aren’t running anywhere near capacity. Malaysia and Vietnam in particular have foundries that supply much of the global supply, and they’ve been hit hard by covid.

Automakers rely on just-in-time manufacturing to keep inventory levels low, and it bit them in the ass.

But it’s not just automakers and their supply chain that’s affected. Literally anything with a chip is affected.

Companies with chips in inventory have supplies that are dwindling or gone at this point.

Consumer electronics and appliance makers have increased prices by 20% or more to slow the demand.

Anyone who’s been trying to buy a dishwasher or fridge can attest to tight supplies.


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Blue Oval

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Last month I was asked to sign a waiver to allow Ford to store my cars in my lot. I would not be charged floor plan until it was ready to sell. We would have to put the chip in. I was at a Ford convention. I asked if they could show me a picture of what we needed to add. I asked if we were going to add a door to the PCM? No one had any idea. I said when you can explain it I will sign it. The next week a service rep called. He told me it will have a jumper on PCM plug to only run. They will ship us the PCM and plug it in. But he could not find a straight answer. I signed it and sent it in. What ever. I’m going to be in trouble when boating season ends up here. It’s all getting really old.
 

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CarolynandBob

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I posted on Aug 15th when the local ford dealer got 4 f-150's. They got 2 the next day . This is farm and truck country, so they need their trucks. As of yesterday there where still 5 of them on the lot.

Is that a sign that demand is going down or people not willing to pay the higher price? I don't know, but was surprised to see them still there.
 

pronstar

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I posted on Aug 15th when the local ford dealer got 4 f-150's. They got 2 the next day . This is farm and truck country, so they need their trucks. As of yesterday there where still 5 of them on the lot.

Is that a sign that demand is going down or people not willing to pay the higher price? I don't know, but was surprised to see them still there.

I bet they were sold before they were delivered, and the new owners just haven’t picked them up yet.


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