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Is it me or has the market in Havasu made another huge jump!

ONE-A-DAY

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And there is my dream lot, I stop on it every morning when out walking my dog and check for people stuck on the sandbar. I think its top three in Havasu for views. Level to the street, no crazy steep driveway or elevators in the house to get your groceries upstairs. Sold in 09 for 300k. Owner has house next door, from Downey, its not for sale, they are never here. If it was for sale it would have to be north of 1 million for the dirt these days. Wildlife refuge beyond the fence so nobody can ever block your view.

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RiverDave

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I was looking around So. Cal at prices. They are random as shit. Like I said (and Singlton point out) you can get a house in So. Cal not far from the beach for the prices I'm seeing in Az. in places that are outside of L.A. and bigger cities. but then you look at other places and it's just as stupid. I was looking at my grandparents old house in Resida they sold in the early 80s. It sold last year for nearly 800k....In the fuckin valley!!!

I just spent a day and a half in California.. I wouldn’t care if it’s 200k cheaper than here and on the beach I wouldn’t go back..
 

2Driver

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And there is my dream lot, I stop on it every morning when out walking my dog and check for people stuck on the sandbar. I think its top three in Havasu for views. Level to the street, no crazy steep driveway or elevators in the house to get your groceries upstairs. Sold in 09 for 300k. Owner has house next door, from Downey, its not for sale, they are never here. If it was for sale it would have to be north of 1 million for the dirt these days. Wildlife refuge beyond the fence so nobody can ever block your view.

View attachment 1001721

Unique premium dirt like that is always money in the bank in the long run, even if it seems stupid right now. That's why I ran down and bought our river place in 24 hours without 2 seconds of thinking.
 

RiverDave

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And there is my dream lot, I stop on it every morning when out walking my dog and check for people stuck on the sandbar. I think its top three in Havasu for views. Level to the street, no crazy steep driveway or elevators in the house to get your groceries upstairs. Sold in 09 for 300k. Owner has house next door, from Downey, its not for sale, they are never here. If it was for sale it would have to be north of 1 million for the dirt these days. Wildlife refuge beyond the fence so nobody can ever block your view.

View attachment 1001721

That’s bad ass
 

Christopher Lucero

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just as stupid
hah. a neighbor has a pending sale for the first plan 2 on our block to sell for over $1M. All the other plan 2 owners are salivating. original price 30 yrs ago was ~270k. (that calculates to around 4.45%/yr) so it sounds impressive, but it is kind of typical for a home to experience an average annual rate of anywhere from 3 to 5%.
 

HubbaHubbaLife

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I love Carlsbad and where we live. I dislike CA politics, more and more as I get older
I get that. Age definitely comes at a cost. I grew up outside DC in VA so from childhood have been hard wired to be "politically adverse" if there is such a thing today. For most of my life I've not given two cents about politics. Boy has that been challenged in recent history..... Its helped with my sanity of late for sure. A friend loves to use the term Ambivalent.
 

Tank

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I just spent a day and a half in California.. I wouldn’t care if it’s 200k cheaper than here and on the beach I wouldn’t go back..
Yeah, there's that too. LOL

hah. a neighbor has a pending sale for the first plan 2 on our block to sell for over $1M. All the other plan 2 owners are salivating. original price 30 yrs ago was ~270k. (that calculates to around 4.45%/yr) so it sounds impressive, but it is kind of typical for a home to experience an average annual rate of anywhere from 3 to 5%.
Yes, but look at the prices above in Havasu that were posted. 80%ish jump in 5 years?? Insane.
 

ClownRoyal

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People are listing their Magic Deckboats for $20-30K over what they originally paid for it. I see a 2004 with a 496Ho for $95K. Probably cost about $75-80K back in 2004. That's along time ago. Crazy.
 

rivrrts429

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Inflation jumped 4+% in a month. The largest increase since November 2008. Its not indicative of a trend because it’s month-over-month and could be related to demand as we emerge from the lockdowns but definitely something to keep our eye on.

That 2008 marker does have my attention though.
 

Paradox

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It is a weird time for sure. I think a lot of people are looking back and saying WTF on a lot of things they thought were important. Today I was catching up with an old friend and peer and he told me his wife lost four family members in the last year (mom, dad, aunt, and twin brother) to covid. It put a lot of things into perspective for me. Pent up demand, politics aside there are some people changing their priorities and it is showing.

Definitely this. Life is short. Make the best of it. Money isn’t everything.
 

G. Faulk

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I just spent a day and a half in California.. I wouldn’t care if it’s 200k cheaper than here and on the beach I wouldn’t go back..
Funny you say this, I spent a day and a half in LHC a year ago. Our second home we sold there, the new owner could offer it back to me for 500k less and I wouldn't go back.

Happy for you LHC'r that live in a place you love, and this coming from a living in Cali my entire life, I have no idea how you can live LHC full time.
 

Havasu blue label

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Great there is some smart investors out there half million for dirt in Havasu haha
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Inflation jumped 4+% in a month. The largest increase since November 2008. Its not indicative of a trend because it’s month-over-month and could be related to demand as we emerge from the lockdowns but definitely something to keep our eye on.

That 2008 marker does have my attention though.
We are really going to have a better picture In a couple months. The “2008” headline is just clickbait. This is a completely new situation, and nothing like anything we have seen before. There are shit tons of people ready to go spend a ton of money that have locked themselves down for a year. They don’t give a shit what it costs, they are going to get out. travel, and do things.

For the people that think it’s going to happen exactly like 2008 all over again, we still have to go through 2007 to get to 2008.
 
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Looking Glass

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We are really going to have a better picture In a couple months. The “2008” headline is just clickbait. This is a completely new situation, and nothing like anything we have seen before.

For the people that think it’s going to happen exactly like 2008 all over again, we still have to go through 2007 to get to 2008.


Fill Us In!!!. o_O
 

Boat 405

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I remember sitting on the sidelines in 2006,2007 saying it's coming and then bought a house in May of 2010. It fucking sucked for the first year. I think I lived on $200 a month after all my bills were paid. But I knew down the road I'd be fine when it all came back. Well 10 years later I sold that house and made a good chunk. Not saying it will happen like that again, but something is brewing.

The folks that have it sorted out and not leveraged to the hilt will be fine. The others who are buying shit way over priced, leveraging themselves to do so and taking on additional loans for toys, second homes, and other things will be hit the hardest.

I friend of mine sold his house to a guy who a loan on everything, brand new truck, brand new wifes car, brand new wakeboard boat, brand new pair of jet skis, brand new pair of rzrs. The guy couldn't get regular finanacing so my buddy did an owner carry with a ballon payment after 5 years. 30 year amortization schedule at 6%. I think he pays about $100 a month in principal. Almost $3000 in interest a month on a vacation home..... He had the money coming in from his company, but just wait until that money flow gets disrupted in some way..... House of cards....

Another place I know down off the river. Small development. Can't own the land. BLM land. 95% of all the vacation homes are financed, on top of lot rent which always goes up.

Right now 9 out of 10 people buy cars with financing.... Sure if you can write it off, or business expense there are tax advantages, but not in all situations...

Home prices that are run aways...


Situations like this and you're telling me things are just gonna level off.... LOL When this hits it will make 2008 look like kids play.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I remember sitting on the sidelines in 2006,2007 saying it's coming and then bought a house in May of 2010. It fucking sucked for the first year. I think I lived on $200 a month after all my bills were paid. But I knew down the road I'd be fine when it all came back. Well 10 years later I sold that house and made a good chunk. Not saying it will happen like that again, but something is brewing.

The folks that have it sorted out and not leveraged to the hilt will be fine. The others who are buying shit way over priced, leveraging themselves to do so and taking on additional loans for toys, second homes, and other things will be hit the hardest.

I friend of mine sold his house to a guy who a loan on everything, brand new truck, brand new wifes car, brand new wakeboard boat, brand new pair of jet skis, brand new pair of rzrs. The guy couldn't get regular finanacing so my buddy did an owner carry with a ballon payment after 5 years. 30 year amortization schedule at 6%. I think he pays about $100 a month in principal. Almost $3000 in interest a month on a vacation home..... He had the money coming in from his company, but just wait until that money flow gets disrupted in some way..... House of cards....

Another place I know down off the river. Small development. Can't own the land. BLM land. 95% of all the vacation homes are financed, on top of lot rent which always goes up.

Right now 9 out of 10 people buy cars with financing.... Sure if you can write it off, or business expense there are tax advantages, but not in all situations...

Home prices that are run aways...


Situations like this and you're telling me things are just gonna level off.... LOL When this hits it will make 2008 look like kids play.

We have been hearing that since 2015.

I agree with you that SOMETHING will happen. It is not going to be with primary housing. There might be a vacation home and toy sale though.

The government isn't gonna let entire cities become foreclosed on like they did in 2009. They are going to put a moratorium or stopgap on foreclosures. But more to your point, we have a decade of buyers that are locked in with LOW interest rates and probably have a chunk of equity in their homes. They aren't going anywhere.

Havasu is transitioning more and more to PRIMARY residences. We are going to ride another wave up for a year or 2 until this pops is my guess... then we will be back to 2020 prices on everything.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Yup. Inflation impacts the cost of just about everything. Printing money BAD

Once again, supply and demand impacts the cost of boats too. Boat prices were not far off in 2019 before all this extra money printing. Custom boat MFGs. just keep raising prices until they see the lines start to shorten... It is easier and cheaper for them to make 20 boats a year at 2X the cost vs 50 for 1/2 the cost.

Look how many boats magic cranked out over just a few short years. Now the pontoon MFGs. have filled that gap in the market.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Agreed but the increase in money printing, debt, and handouts in 2020 and 2021 increased SUBSTANTIALLY versus prior years.

Agreed as well. We have talked this subject before, and I don't disagree with you, I just believe there are other factors at play, because we have 2 problems, the supply chain has been impacted, AND there has been money printing. When the supply chain issues get resolved, we will have a better picture of true inflation.

Example - The Auto MFGs are not trying to make substantially more cars than usual, but they don't have access to parts they need to build new cars because of supply chain issues. That drives up the price of new cars artificially and reflects higher inflation than we would normally be seeing.

Lumber also kinda falls into that category... The lumber industry is not going to invest in any new mills to service a 1-2 year spike from pent up demand. Obviously that drives up prices. I see that as inflation that is exacerbated by market forces. But as they catch up with demand, prices will start dropping back down. That isn't a reflection of the "real inflation" going back down.
 

NicPaus

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My next door river neighbor bought a lot for 330k in last boom. Now he is thinking of selling as build costs are so high. He said he could break even. Have not personally seen the lot. But it's not flat. Might have to drive by this weekend and look.
 

BHC Vic

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Nope, nothing to sell. People are paying over sticker on trucks and SUV's right now.
Norco dodge and Ford have both been calling for two weeks trying to sell me a truck. Curious to see how it plays out.
The corona number is hemburg Ford yesterday. I have 3 voicemails from norco dodge.
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HCP3

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The hot housing market isn't going away anytime soon if mortgage rates stay at near-record lows.
 

Havasu blue label

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Interest rate . You have to qualify for a million dollar mortgage 250 plus per year no debt
 

DWC

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You can always tell when people have little history buying RE, and way to much confidence in the economy. I bet people who bought in 2007 were kicking themselves in 09. Those that said Silicon Vally would come crashing down were right.
We moved to Atl in 05, back to So cal in 07’ when my 2 years were up. Missed 2 yrs of So Cal appreciation and bought at the top of the market. Had the most “expensive” house in the neighborhood for a long damn time. It not only can come down, it will. I don’t think as much but who knows. For a primary residence, not close to retirement, i wouldn’t even check Zillow. Trying to time the market is ridiculous. Good chance you’ll blow more in rent and fees than you’ll make jumping out.
I did happen to send this thread to my wife. She pulled up the Havasu home and ALMOST said sorry seeing the latest zestimate. She was hesitant dropping the dough. I might have oversold the upside. Glad it worked out. :cool:
 

77charger

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I just spent a day and a half in California.. I wouldn’t care if it’s 200k cheaper than here and on the beach I wouldn’t go back..
I come back to ca for work here and there and after 3 days im ready to go back home after the traffic and drivers and the people.Everyone i know who has gone out of state says the same damn thing too.
 

LowRiver2

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Memorial Day weekend might be a litmus test for prices to level off.

First time in the last 5 months 14 RV garage homes have been on the market over five days in the 600-800k range. None have pools, two have 0 space on property to build one.
We shall see....
 

FishSniper

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Memorial Day weekend might be a litmus test for prices to level off.

First time in the last 5 months 14 RV garage homes have been on the market over five days in the 600-800k range. None have pools, two have 0 space on property to build one.
We shall see....
We bought late 2019 RV garage no pool. Glad we did it that way. Pool and backyard landscape now done and we could sell for good profit but to do what ? Wish had bought some lots few years ago then would be a different situation.
 

LowRiver2

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We bought late 2019 RV garage no pool. Glad we did it that way. Pool and backyard landscape now done and we could sell for good profit but to do what ? Wish had bought some lots few years ago then would be a different situation.
I predict a fall to 2019 prices, but not much more, if any, when a downturn comes.
I’m not paying $725k for a single wide RV garage home with no pool, but that’s me, lol.
 

Bobby V

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I predict a fall to 2019 prices, but not much more, if any, when a downturn comes.
I’m not paying $725k for a single wide RV garage home with no pool, but that’s me, lol.
725K. :eek:My 3 car with a RV garage is 535K per Zillow. No pool. 3 bedroom 3 bath. Built in 2002. Huge backyard.
 

DWC

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Dealerships are calling me again... are sales slowing down?
Interesting. I got a cold call/email from a dealer yesterday. They didn’t respond for shit 30 days ago. I gave them what i was looking for, price, model and mileage. They said they’d get right back to me. We’ll see how it goes.
 
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