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HNL2LHC

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Im gonna take a rash of shit I’m sure but......

That 10/1 ARM I posted earlier seems pretty attractive. It says maximum APR is 7%. Is that on top of the 3.1%?

10 years of 3.1% today is saving 2-2.5%. If you put that money aside I bet even in a worst case scenario you’d be money ahead for 12-15 years.
I got your back unless the pitchforks and fire come out. Then you are on your own.

Typically it is written in ARMs that the rate of increase is only so mush a year. In this fast raising market this would be good being that it will take years before you max out. If rates go up to 10% you are ahead of the game with 7% max. :dunno: for sure but have to read the fine print. 👍
 

Englewood

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What's the point of this?

I always find these threads interesting getting perspectives from multiple different sources. I don't see anyone cheering anything on, just a few people sharing their current assessment of their local landscape.

These threads come off the rails when someone pokes the hornet's nest and generalizes claims of those harmlessly participating.
Have you not read any of these threads before or did my response trigger you? Every single time several people come on and talk about how “X” is gonna crash. If you don’t like my perspective based on facts then don’t read em. Simple.

Im gonna take a rash of shit I’m sure but......

That 10/1 ARM I posted earlier seems pretty attractive. It says maximum APR is 7%. Is that on top of the 3.1%?

10 years of 3.1% today is saving 2-2.5%. If you put that money aside I bet even in a worst case scenario you’d be money ahead for 12-15 years.
Nothing wrong at all with an ARM. It’s a smart play for certain situations for those who understand them. People get into sticky situations when they don’t have a plan in place to get out of it if needed.
 
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Bajastu

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I saw the writing on the wall a while ago and here is how my plan worked out.

1- Sold both boats (Hallett and MB Sports) for more than I paid for them. I made huge money on the supply issue on new boat demands.
2- Bought a small place in Parker with a heavy down payment. Property and a mobile, not BLM or Indian land.
3-Refinanced the current house in CA, lowered the interest rate to 2.75%, and dumped PMI. We didn’t pull money out of our house when we refinanced.
4- Bought a beater boat for cash and I’ll run that until new or used pricing on boats hits the gutter.

Worse case scenario, rent the Parker pad and keep running the beater boat. I’ve learned that in a down economy house prices go down but rent goes up. Buying a 2nd house means that you better be able to cover your payment with rent if need be. Boats come and go. I’d rather not be payment rich in a down economy.

One thing I had to laugh at is while I’m in my beater boat, people tend to “boat shame” you when you park next to them in the channel. I really dont care what you pull up in as long as you are having a good time on the water. I’ve had nicer boats than some of these fools and been driving them since I was a little kid. It’s not like I’m going to hit their boat or something. If they only new my endgame.
 
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HNL2LHC

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I saw the writing on the wall a while ago and here is how my plan worked out.

1- Sold both boats (Hallett and MB Sports) for more than I paid for them. I made huge money on the supply issue on new boat demands.
2- Bought a small place in Parker with a heavy down payment. Property and a mobile, not BLM or Indian land.
3-Refinanced the current house in CA, lowered the interest rate to 2.75%, and dumped PMI. We didn’t pull money out of our house when we refinanced.
4- Bought a beater boat for cash and I’ll run that until new or used pricing on boats hits the gutter.

Worse case scenario, rent the Parker pad and keep running the beater boat. I’ve learned that in a down economy house prices go down but rent goes up. Buying a 2nd house means that you better be able to cover your payment with rent if need be. Boats come and go. I’d rather not be payment rich in a down economy.


Agree with most. One thing that happened to use is our rentals got a little harder to fill so we had to drop the $$$$ from $2,400 -$1,800 for a couple of years. Now it is up to $3,000 right now. Just signed two new agreements for at least one year so we are good on that front. 👍
 

RiverDave

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I saw the writing on the wall a while ago and here is how my plan worked out.

1- Sold both boats (Hallett and MB Sports) for more than I paid for them. I made huge money on the supply issue on new boat demands.
2- Bought a small place in Parker with a heavy down payment. Property and a mobile, not BLM or Indian land.
3-Refinanced the current house in CA, lowered the interest rate to 2.75%, and dumped PMI. We didn’t pull money out of our house when we refinanced.
4- Bought a beater boat for cash and I’ll run that until new or used pricing on boats hits the gutter.

Worse case scenario, rent the Parker pad and keep running the beater boat. I’ve learned that in a down economy house prices go down but rent goes up. Buying a 2nd house means that you better be able to cover your payment with rent if need be. Boats come and go. I’d rather not be payment rich in a down economy.

One thing I had to laugh at is while I’m in my beater boat, people tend to “boat shame” you when you park next to them in the channel. I really dont care what you pull up in as long as you are having a good time on the water. Ive had nicer boats that some of these fools and been driving them since a little kid. It’s not like I’m going to hit their boat or something. If they only new my endgame.

I have never encountered the boat shame thing. I don’t really think it is a thing down in Parker..

Can’t say I have ever been in a beater in havasu, but I could see it up here because there is so much keeping up with the joneses

If things get bad I’m gonna sell it all and track down this guy.. I will be the guy dressed as capt jack sparrow kinda hanging off the side

Note I didn’t take this pic to poke fun.. I was thinking how cool it would be to have something like this.. lol
084FAD4E-805D-4A24-9872-1A570A2FAE3B.jpeg
 

Bajastu

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I have never encountered the boat shame thing. I don’t really think it is a thing down in Parker..

Can’t say I have ever been in a beater in havasu, but I could see it up here because there is so much keeping up with the joneses
You’re right, boat shamming does not take place in Parker. I don’t think my little Mastercraft is too bad to park next too. It’s not a DCB or MTI but I guarantee that I have a smile on my face running this beater.
D5B682A2-1580-4226-B94E-5F69E06072E2.jpeg
 
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OldSchoolBoats

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What's the point of this?

I always find these threads interesting getting perspectives from multiple different sources. I don't see anyone cheering anything on, just a few people sharing their current assessment of their local landscape.

These threads come off the rails when someone pokes the hornet's nest and generalizes claims of those harmlessly participating.
So you haven't been able to gain perspective in the last 20+ other threads? Every week it is the same BS and the same group that cheers on other people's failures, while making assumptions of people's finances, with no fucking clue what they are talking about. It is just getting old around here man. I know you have a pulse on things and remain neutral for the most part, so I respect that.

Probably time for a Doom and Gloom RE and Recession forum so all of the RDP Financial experts can congregate their and cheer on the failure of our economy in their own space.
 

HNL2LHC

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I have never encountered the boat shame thing. I don’t really think it is a thing down in Parker..

Can’t say I have ever been in a beater in havasu, but I could see it up here because there is so much keeping up with the joneses

If things get bad I’m gonna sell it all and track down this guy.. I will be the guy dressed as capt jack sparrow kinda hanging off the side

Note I didn’t take this pic to poke fun.. I was thinking how cool it would be to have something like this.. lol View attachment 1114281


I am right there with you Dave. I keep telling friends that i want a boat that like for those day that I just don’t want to give a F. Then I saw Mel and Jame’s boat. That is bad ass for sure!!!!!
 

RiverDave

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So you haven't been able to gain perspective in the last 20+ other threads? Every week it is the same BS and the same group that cheers on other people's failures, while making assumptions of people's finances, with no fucking clue what they are talking about. It is just getting old around here man. I know you have a pulse on things and remain neutral for the most part, so I respect that.

Probably time for a Doom and Gloom RE and Recession forum so all of the RDP Financial experts can congregate their and cheer on the failure of our economy in their own space.

I never get the rooting for a recession.

Inversely though there’s threads and posts even two weeks ago from people that are screaming from the roof tops it’s got nowhere to go but up. Lol.

Not sure which I find more disturbing
 

OldSchoolBoats

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I never get the rooting for a recession.

Inversely though there’s threads and posts even two weeks ago from people that are screaming from the roof tops it’s got nowhere to go but up. Lol.

Not sure which I find more disturbing

I do not see how you can even argue that?? People who root for the collapse of the economy and failure of others are pure scum.....plain and simple. They may think that they are smarter than the market, but they are not. Nobody will be immune to it if what the doom and gloomers predict comes to fruition.
 

Havasu blue label

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Not rooting for a down turn just a smart investor that takes advantage of a slowdown.
 

Bajastu

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So the million dollars homes are the ones that are selling
So a quick search on Zillow and in the last 90 days, 61 homes over 1M sold in Havasu, 13 in Parker, and 21 homes here in Canyon Lake Ca. (Home town)
 

c_land

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So you haven't been able to gain perspective in the last 20+ other threads? Every week it is the same BS and the same group that cheers on other people's failures, while making assumptions of people's finances, with no fucking clue what they are talking about. It is just getting old around here man. I know you have a pulse on things and remain neutral for the most part, so I respect that.

Probably time for a Doom and Gloom RE and Recession forum so all of the RDP Financial experts can congregate their and cheer on the failure of our economy in their own space.

There has been a lot of these lately, I usually participate because I am pretty fascinated by RE and everyone's perspective. Your input actually humbled my perspective as a result of one of these threads to not focus so much on a subset of perma bears.

It's not always easy to be rosy when a small group of central bank planners have done a job of screwing up a number of financial markets with the engineering experiments. Not cool that shelter as an investment / necessary cost of existing has increased 20% YOY since the scamdemic. There is probably some of that frustration coming out here from the inmates.
 

jet496

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I have never encountered the boat shame thing. I don’t really think it is a thing down in Parker..

Can’t say I have ever been in a beater in havasu, but I could see it up here because there is so much keeping up with the joneses

If things get bad I’m gonna sell it all and track down this guy.. I will be the guy dressed as capt jack sparrow kinda hanging off the side

Note I didn’t take this pic to poke fun.. I was thinking how cool it would be to have something like this.. lol View attachment 1114281
Yea, my 16 ft, 1959 Cherokee Runabout with a 75 hp Envinrude was freaking awesome. It served it's purpose & was actually rather proud of that beater.
 

RiverDave

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I do not see how you can even argue that?? People who root for the collapse of the economy and failure of others are pure scum.....plain and simple. They may think that they are smarter than the market, but they are not. Nobody will be immune to it if what the doom and gloomers predict comes to fruition.

Inversely the people that are pointing towards blue sky and saying "Sign here on the dotted line everything is going to be fine?"

RD
 

Mandelon

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I have heard from many of my friends that one reason they are tending to stay put a bit longer because moving raises your property taxes so much. Values have gone up a lot, and unless you are over 55 and get the exemption, the new location will cost a lot more to the county every month!
 

HALLETT BOY

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I think the idea of people wanting a recession is so it gets over with . Once we get through the majority of a recession , midterms get over with , we can hope for a new president in a couple years and get this country back on track .
 

HBCraig

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We, as a nation, seem to be running low on people that want to learn trades though. I think when the jobs were sent overseas, no one thought to keep the skills alive. Metal shop and wood shop were taken away from most schools. A lot of modern day mechanics are parts changers. My Pops knew some rough carpentry, so I was able to learn. My friend's dad taught me how to stick weld. A lot of old, out of print books showed me how to build my first motor. A lot of society chooses to sit on their hands because they don't know what to do with them. Complacency and comfort has made us weak. All the engineers and architects are relatively useless, it there is nobody to assemble their ideas.
I sponsor crane events to try to get kids to operate and work on cranes if they don't want college. If you are 18 and motivated you can earn 6 figures without college debt
 

Bowtiepower00

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I sponsor crane events to try to get kids to operate and work on cranes if they don't want college. If you are 18 and motivated you can earn 6 figures without college debt
Are any of these in AZ? My son is only 10, but I’d like to open his eyes to the trades early, and show him there is an alternative to the traditional college route.
 

monkeyswrench

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I'd never root for a recession. I was in my early 30's, a father of three, and lost both my parents in the last one. Had no clue what to do, and no one to ask for direction or help. I'm not well off, but I'm stable now (financially if not mentally). I don't want anyone to have to go through that. I'd like to see home prices and car prices come into a more nominal range though, and I hope that can happen without people being hungry.

As for "boat shaming", maybe it happens in the channel, not down there much. Up towards Needles, I've only run into it once or twice. Usually some dipshit with a boat they just got, or borrowed from dad, and staying with a friend. The people that are out often, and have been for years, they have always been cool. It never mattered if they had a DCB beached next to my jet bote, those types of people always treated me as an equal.
 

Go-Fly

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We, as a nation, seem to be running low on people that want to learn trades though. I think when the jobs were sent overseas, no one thought to keep the skills alive. Metal shop and wood shop were taken away from most schools. A lot of modern day mechanics are parts changers. My Pops knew some rough carpentry, so I was able to learn. My friend's dad taught me how to stick weld. A lot of old, out of print books showed me how to build my first motor. A lot of society chooses to sit on their hands because they don't know what to do with them. Complacency and comfort has made us weak. All the engineers and architects are relatively useless, it there is nobody to assemble their ideas.
I'm not sure how we are going to get that part up and running again.
 

Orange Juice

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Have you not read any of these threads before or did my response trigger you? Every single time several people come on and talk about how “X” is gonna crash. If you don’t like my perspective based on facts then don’t read em. Simple.


Nothing wrong at all with an ARM. It’s a smart play for certain situations for those who understand them. People get into sticky situations when they don’t have a plan in place to get out of it if needed.
Let me correct you. “If you don’t like my perspective based on my opinion, then don’t read them”
 

monkeyswrench

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I'm not sure how we are going to get that part up and running again.
Necessity is the mother of invention, or just a mean mother F'r.

I've seen in my lifetime some huge advancements from countries we joked about as kids in the 80's.
It will take time. I hold no hope it will come in my own, but hope my kids see it with their eyes. Better yet, I hope they are a part of it.
 

Bowtiepower00

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I won’t say that I’m rooting for a recession, but we are overdue for one and it needs to happen. A large percent of the population didn’t learn their lesson last time. And the govt kicking the can down the road with infusions of printed money didn’t help.

Part of being an adult is preparing for situations like a recession. I don’t feel bad for people in industries that are susceptible not saving and preparing for the down times when things are good.
 

brgrcru

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Hmmm?
Inflation if you really calculate it is probably +20%

I’ll take a recession over high inflation

We went through a depression business loss a few years ago

I can give a fuck what happens . Been through enough shit in life .

This country needs a major reset in every category .

Some of you might Feel the pain , millions of Americans felt with small business closures and loses from the governments Covid policy

While many were making money like crazy
Many of us , we’re wiped out or close to it.

Bring it on !
 

OldSchoolBoats

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Mortgage delinquencies drop to another low!

In the CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report released today we get insight into the housing delinquencies through February 2022.
The number of delinquent mortgages fell from 3.4 to 3.2% (this includes all mortgages, including those in foreclosure). Seriously delinquent mortgages (90+ days past due) fell from 1.8% to 1.6%. Foreclosures rates are at multi-decade lows dropping from 0.3% in February 2021 to 0.2% in February 2022.


FB_IMG_1652200629682.jpg
FB_IMG_1652200634361.jpg
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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The people that are rooting probably did very well during the last downturn.

I did pretty well with bank foreclosures and short sales when nobody wanted to sell homes. I have known some guys that bought homes so cheap during that time...literally some guys were buying homes in Hemet for 20-30k, they absolutely want to experience those gains again!

There will be a recession, if you don't believe so it's just denial. When all the economic indicators are pointing towards it, you should probably start to prepare. I think some are discussing this because they want to warn those that may not remember or were young and/or were not directly affected the last time.
 

Done-it-again

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The people that are rooting probably did very well during the last downturn.

I did pretty well with bank foreclosures and short sales when nobody wanted to sell homes. I have known some guys that bought homes so cheap during that time...literally some guys were buying homes in Hemet for 20-30k, they absolutely want to experience those gains again!

There will be a recession, if you don't believe so it's just denial. When all the economic indicators are pointing towards it, you should probably start to prepare. I think some are discussing this because they want to warn those that may not remember or were young and/or were not directly affected the last time.
No one is denying a "recession" but a total collapse with homes in Hemet going for 20-30K? Nope.....
 

RiverDave

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The people that are rooting probably did very well during the last downturn.

I did pretty well with bank foreclosures and short sales when nobody wanted to sell homes. I have known some guys that bought homes so cheap during that time...literally some guys were buying homes in Hemet for 20-30k, they absolutely want to experience those gains again!

There will be a recession, if you don't believe so it's just denial. When all the economic indicators are pointing towards it, you should probably start to prepare. I think some are discussing this because they want to warn those that may not remember or were young and/or were not directly affected the last time.

What does it mean when you have recession and inflation at the same time? Now we aren't making any money, but everything is worth a bazillion of worthless dollars?

RD
 

Havasu blue label

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I don’t want to name the cities but all of that area will be fun don’t forget havasu .yes I own property in havasu but I’ve bought them in 1999 and 2003
 

530RL

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What does it mean when you have recession and inflation at the same time? Now we aren't making any money, but everything is worth a bazillion of worthless dollars?

RD
It means that a 3 percent fixed rate 30 year mortgage locked in on an existing home was the smartest financial decision any person ever made.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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No one is denying a "recession" but a total collapse with homes in Hemet going for 20-30K? Nope.....
I agree for Southern California, Austin and other areas. However, I do believe the economists that are speaking about a conservative bubble...those areas where Californian's have moved and pushed up prices beyond what typical wages of those areas can sustain, will be hurt significantly.
 

RogerThat99

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I have an old 1998 boat and an old 2004 truck. Both are paid for. I have a 2.25% 30 yr fixed on my home. I guess I am set for the recession. I do still owe a little money on my RV, but not too much.

I don't care if people boat shame or truck shame. Both are fairly clean. Like the old saying goes; "If you squint, it's Mint!" 😀😀

I am in the beginning stages of looking at a career change (2nd career). If I do that, my truck will be a daily driver and I will need to get something newer with lower miles. I am trying to wait out the market so I don't have to overpay for a newer truck. Yes, rates are going up, but in would rather pay less at a higher rate, then way over pay at a lower rate.
 
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COCA COLA COWBOY

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What does it mean when you have recession and inflation at the same time? Now we aren't making any money, but everything is worth a bazillion of worthless dollars?

RD

Well, history has provided a time where we have seen a recession and inflation at the same time....1976-1982 was called a time of great inflation. The graph depicts interest rates, the grey vertical lines note recessions.
 

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c_land

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What does it mean when you have recession and inflation at the same time? Now we aren't making any money, but everything is worth a bazillion of worthless dollars?

RD
If you add in rising unemployment, that's how Stagflation is defined.
 

c_land

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Loretta Mester out today three times mentioning outright MBS sales. Waller talking housing. Who knows what these clowns will actually do, but it has been said that housing is used as one of the transmission mechanisms by the Fed.

Selling MBS would be interesting to say the least, I don't think outright sales have ever been attempted.







And more just now. it would be nice to have a free market economy at some point.

 

RiverDave

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Loretta Mester out today three times mentioning outright MBS sales. Waller talking housing. Who knows what these clowns will actually do, but it has been said that housing is used as one of the transmission mechanisms by the Fed.

Selling MBS would be interesting to say the least, I don't think outright sales have ever been attempted.







And more just now. it would be nice to have a free market economy at some point.


Can you translate that into laymen's or dumb machinist terms so I can understand?

RD
 

Done-it-again

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I agree for Southern California, Austin and other areas. However, I do believe the economists that are speaking about a conservative bubble...those areas where Californian's have moved and pushed up prices beyond what typical wages of those areas can sustain, will be hurt significantly.

Why wood those area crash? Unless those locals pulled money out of there home due to the increase valve, then yes those locals can be in trouble if they lose their job. But if they didn't pull money out, they just lost the equity they had in a inflated market.

What can hurt people in areas is when property taxes are re-assessed every year, that could hurt locals.

Now if you are talking vacation home spots, that's a different story.

In the end majority of people need to lose jobs to see a "crash"

We can have a rescission and still keep jobs.....
 

MagicMan

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This report regarding the the top 25 overvalued real estate markets in the country is interesting. Look who made the list.

 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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Why wood those area crash? Unless those locals pulled money out of there home due to the increase valve, then yes those locals can be in trouble if they lose their job. But if they didn't pull money out, they just lost the equity they had in a inflated market.

What can hurt people in areas is when property taxes are re-assessed every year, that could hurt locals.

Now if you are talking vacation home spots, that's a different story.

In the end majority of people need to lose jobs to see a "crash"

We can have a rescission and still keep jobs.....

Affordability dictates prices. Wages in a certain area dictate affordability.

Prices in certain areas escalated dramatically because people sold in California and purchased cheaper (at lower price points) in conservative areas for cash in most cases or close to it paying much higher than comps' and driving prices up fast and dramatically. California's dominated the purchase market because their purchasing power was so much stronger due to high down's or coming in with all cash. That's what we saw on the way up.

On the way down, some people have to sell....divorce, death, job transfers. When people sell and sell for less, those sales become the new comparable sales and start the chain of a declining market.

Yes, if nobody sold, prices would not decline. This I have seen in certain areas of San Diego....Coronado, Mission Hills, some other coastal areas where the typical owner did not feel a hardship during 2007-2013.
 
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