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Havasu blue label

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Mr orange you must be one wealthy man . Man you talk a lot of bullshit about financial being enjoy life . When you wake up in the morning look in the mirror and tell your self be happy
 

LargeOrangeFont

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You would be very surprised. Like I said earlier, my buddy max owns 4 homes. I know at least 50 apprentices that recently bought houses. A lot up the hill in Victorville. If they get laid off they’ll have no choice but to walk away. Work is slowing down. Developers are holding their money right now and not starting big projects.

Let’s be real.. they would sell them for a wash, to a person, Zillow, someone, not “walk away” and get foreclosed on.
 

Havasu blue label

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Yes sir Vic I have 3 family members that run union jobs and one that is ba in union it’s slow
 

2Driver

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Well it’s about to get worse. “Biden” is about to sign an executive order to break up the freight rails and shipping market.

The consequences of the government throwing a wrench in the private sector never goes well. What an idiot to inflict chaos in the supply chain at this time. The left is so resentful of success that they will accept any level casualties to get revenge.
 

BHC Vic

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Let’s be real.. they would sell them for a wash, to a person, Zillow, someone, not “walk away” and get foreclosed on.
I disagree. I think they will fight till there’s no other option. I watched it happen last go round. The tried loan modifications, bankruptcy, eventually there was nothing left to do. Many many members took their own lives. Vegas was the absolute worse
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Mr orange you must be one wealthy man . Man you talk a lot of bullshit about financial being enjoy life . When you wake up in the morning look in the mirror and tell your self be happy

Engrish?

Im just a squirrel trying to get a few nuts man.

I will say if I followed your stock tips I’d be less wealthy.
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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I disagree. I think they will fight till there’s no other option. I watched it happen last go round. The tried loan modifications, bankruptcy, eventually there was nothing left to do. Many many members took their own lives. Vegas was the absolute worse

I get that, but home values haven’t dropped. You are talking about 2 problems at the same time - owing more than a house is worth, and not having a job to pay the mortgage. Today only one of those problems potentially exist - a lay-off.

I’m speaking specifically about the people in your circle with multiple homes. If it is your primary residence, yea you do whatever you can and exhaust all options.
 
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rivrrts429

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You would be very surprised. Like I said earlier, my buddy max owns 4 homes. I know at least 50 apprentices that recently bought houses. A lot up the hill in Victorville. If they get laid off they’ll have no choice but to walk away. Work is slowing down. Developers are holding their money right now and not starting big projects.


I can’t speak directly to Union specific work as my data doesn’t specify Union or Non-Union but, Dodge data and analytics, which quantifies construction spend based on permits pulled and/or pending shows the LA Metro market flat through mid 2022. The only county to retract slightly is Orange County.
 

BHC Vic

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image.jpg
 

petie6464

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Population needing/ wanting homes= >demand
covid = <supply = >Pricing.
 

propcheck

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I swear I read all these responses earlier today in another thread
Another RiverDaveRamseyPlace thread 😂 for real folks leave the “I feel” out of the discussion and recognize that all the replies and factors play into it as a whole no single element has full control of our Economy. Think of it more like an engine with many inputs and factoring to reach full performance.
 

AZLineman

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Its all about destroying the middle class
I believe this. It’s so hard to find good dependable labor in the Havasu area and I’ve talked to three people in the last week that want to move here and work because it seems that a lot of the locals can’t seem to be dependable employees and they cannot find housing anywhere. This includes renting and purchasing.
 

hallett21

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You would be very surprised. Like I said earlier, my buddy max owns 4 homes. I know at least 50 apprentices that recently bought houses. A lot up the hill in Victorville. If they get laid off they’ll have no choice but to walk away. Work is slowing down. Developers are holding their money right now and not starting big projects.

Are they doing stated income loans or just regular W2 30 year mortgage?

I think stated income loans are like 6% and you have to show money in the bank.

I think you’re right that some will have to sell. But Max and the apprentices will need a place to live regardless. Do you think they’ll get to a point that paying rent makes more sense than the current mortgage?





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BHC Vic

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Are they doing stated income loans or just regular W2 30 year mortgage?

I think stated income loans are like 6% and you have to show money in the bank.

I think you’re right that some will have to sell. But Max and the apprentices will need a place to live regardless. Do you think they’ll get to a point that paying rent makes more sense than the current mortgage?





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I don’t it will be about what makes sense at the point. Beggars can’t be choosers type deal
 

warpt71

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I believe this. It’s so hard to find good dependable labor in the Havasu area and I’ve talked to three people in the last week that want to move here and work because it seems that a lot of the locals can’t seem to be dependable employees and they cannot find housing anywhere. This includes renting and purchasing.

I have a county job, with MCSO, and our employees last about a year or 2. I've been there 6 years this month and am considered a senior employee. I don't think it's just a Havasu thing, people just don't want to work.

I make penny's compared to most, but I have a job with full benefits and retirement. Guaranteed 40 hours a week with available ot, due to low staffing. I earn 10 hours if PTO every paycheck too! Why would someone leave? Because other county's pay more for the same job. What my coworkers don't realize is that those other county's cost more to live. I've seen people return after being gone a couple of years too, they all say, "I should have just stayed"

This new generation of workers are something else
 

DrunkenSailor

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The fed is buying 40bn in mortgage bonds every month and another 80bn in Treasury securities monthly. They have purchased over a trillion in rmbs alone.

This has left yields in the mortgage bond market at around 1% for AAA rated bonds and BBB-B rated bonds between 2-4%. In turn it has caused interest rates to maintain historic lows as issuers can easily cover the bond interest at reduced rates.

This is why investors are grabbing as much rental portfolio as possible. The debt on it is incredibly cheap and even if rents drop there is more than enough cash flow in the securitized deal to cover the nut. As there is no end to rental income it's pure cash flow once the debt is paid in 5-7 years. They can then releverage the portfolio for another large cash infusion.

Combine this with work from home where the California transplants can bring California income to areas that historically paid 25-60% less in wages.

Now throw in trillions of dollars of printed "free" money injected into the economy and the consumer level devaluing the dollar
and you get a situation where housing prices are skyrocketing.

The Fed is threatening to stop these buys which will be the first step towards rising rates to fight the inflation.

When and if the California transplants lose their California incomes they will flood a job market that does not have the capacity or the financial ability to cover their new expensive homes.

The crash should have come years ago but the government has kept their thumb on the scale. I've given up trying to predict and am saying enjoy the ride while it lasts.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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The fed is buying 40bn in mortgage bonds every month and another 80bn in Treasury securities monthly. They have purchased over a trillion in rmbs alone.

This has left yields in the mortgage bond market at around 1% for AAA rated bonds and BBB-B rated bonds between 2-4%. In turn it has caused interest rates to maintain historic lows as issuers can easily cover the bond interest at reduced rates.

This is why investors are grabbing as much rental portfolio as possible. The debt on it is incredibly cheap and even if rents drop there is more than enough cash flow in the securitized deal to cover the nut. As there is no end to rental income it's pure cash flow once the debt is paid in 5-7 years. They can then releverage the portfolio for another large cash infusion.

Combine this with work from home where the California transplants can bring California income to areas that historically paid 25-60% less in wages.

Now throw in trillions of dollars of printed "free" money injected into the economy and the consumer level devaluing the dollar
and you get a situation where housing prices are skyrocketing.

The Fed is threatening to stop these buys which will be the first step towards rising rates to fight the inflation.

When and if the California transplants lose their California incomes they will flood a job market that does not have the capacity or the financial ability to cover their new expensive homes.

The crash should have come years ago but the government has kept their thumb on the scale. I've given up trying to predict and am saying enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Yea the CA problem with relocating and taking your CA salary is always - what about yore next job?

For jobs that can be remote, being in CA you are now competing with people out of the CA market who demand less salary. 2 years ago that was not even a thought for the role. I see this bringing down the CA market wage and bringing up wages in other markets over time as the labor pool spreads out geographically.

All this is to say employers are starting to say - “This is the pay we are offering regardless of where you live.”
 

DrunkenSailor

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Another thing to consider is the unemployment rate. It's still over 5% but job openings are at record highs. Some of this is stimulus related but more is due to people leaving big cities but keeping their big income. As infrastructure needs grow in places like Texas, idaho, etc... The people who created the need for growth can't take the pay cut to fill the local jobs.
 

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You would be very surprised. Like I said earlier, my buddy max owns 4 homes. I know at least 50 apprentices that recently bought houses. A lot up the hill in Victorville. If they get laid off they’ll have no choice but to walk away. Work is slowing down. Developers are holding their money right now and not starting big projects.
They get laid off... are they so dependent on the union and unable to make decisions themselves, they can't look for work elsewhere, even if its non union? I see help wanted signs all over. Yeah its non union but it's an income that can pay the bills.
 

stephenkatsea

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Apparently, per TV news, developers are building "single family" homes crazy close to each other. The developers have no intention of selling them. They intend to rent them. IMO - One more step in the destruction of US suburbia as we know it. No mortgage qualifications, no down payments, etc etc. Most large cities are predominantly occupied by renters, not owners/mortgage holders. Just the way the Dems like it.
 
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boatdoc55

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I bought my first house when I was in my late 20s that I could barely afford and still live in it 28 years later... so who cares what its worth? I still need a roof over my head and Airconditioning. Isn't that what you are supposed to do? Buy what you can barely afford when you are young and live there until you can make fun of your kids mortgage payment and constantly remind them that you don't have a mortgage anymore? Then you take all that extra money you don't pay in your mortgage and buy your first vacation home when you are in your peak earning years of 50+... nothing has changed, people just think they are entitled to exotic large houses.
I'm with you all the way skeeter!!!! In my entire adult life I have never understood buying something that made me look good to other people. I don't and never have, gave a fuk what other people thought of MY lifestyle. 👍
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Apparently, per TV news, developers are building "single family" homes crazy close to each other. The developers have no intention of selling them. They intend to rent them. IMO - One more step in the destruction of US suburbia as we know it. No mortgage qualifications, no down payments, etc etc. Most large cities are predominantly occupied by renters, not owners/mortgage holders. Just the way the Dems like it.

Once again, that makes a housing collapse less and less likely.
 

pronstar

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The fed is buying 40bn in mortgage bonds every month and another 80bn in Treasury securities monthly. They have purchased over a trillion in rmbs alone.

This has left yields in the mortgage bond market at around 1% for AAA rated bonds and BBB-B rated bonds between 2-4%. In turn it has caused interest rates to maintain historic lows as issuers can easily cover the bond interest at reduced rates.

This is why investors are grabbing as much rental portfolio as possible. The debt on it is incredibly cheap and even if rents drop there is more than enough cash flow in the securitized deal to cover the nut. As there is no end to rental income it's pure cash flow once the debt is paid in 5-7 years. They can then releverage the portfolio for another large cash infusion.

Combine this with work from home where the California transplants can bring California income to areas that historically paid 25-60% less in wages.

Now throw in trillions of dollars of printed "free" money injected into the economy and the consumer level devaluing the dollar
and you get a situation where housing prices are skyrocketing.

The Fed is threatening to stop these buys which will be the first step towards rising rates to fight the inflation.

When and if the California transplants lose their California incomes they will flood a job market that does not have the capacity or the financial ability to cover their new expensive homes.

The crash should have come years ago but the government has kept their thumb on the scale. I've given up trying to predict and am saying enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Good post.

One thing to consider:
Inflation means today’s debts are paid in tomorrow’s dollars. The value of a rental portfolio will increase tomorrow, but the payments don’t change.

In 20 years we will all look back and kick ourselves for not buying more real estate at cheap prices.

Real estate is a great store of value, as great hedge against inflation.


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BHC Vic

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They get laid off... are they so dependent on the union and unable to make decisions themselves, they can't look for work elsewhere, even if its non union? I see help wanted signs all over. Yeah its non union but it's an income that can pay the bills.
Like I said before. There will be no work union or non union.
 

BHC Vic

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Help wanted signs are fine if they are will to pay. I can guarantee all those help wanted signs aren’t for positions that can pay my bills
 

SummitKarl

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I see a lot of comments on here about housing prices in Havasu and how the city doesn’t care etc..

I drove across five states and heard the same story literally everywhere we went.

This place has city councilors that are homeless now because they can’t afford rent. I am not sure what the solution is to this in the future… but I wanted to point out this problem isn’t limited to here but rather everywhere..

I just permitted a few "work force" housing projects from a apartment complex to mini duplex's. If I had more rental project investors I could make a good size dent in the "work force" housing issue, but no one is looking for long term R.O.I. projects, Everyone wants instant gratification investments (how fast can you build it and get me my profit) and that is the major issue that plagues LHC's development.........GREED!!!!!!!! no one wants to invest in the community, I think that has to do with how Risky it is to be a rental property owner these days with the way the courts are across the nation = squater's rights, law suits etc..., The Residential single family (RSF) thing is still on a tear I am booked out well into 2022 and stopped taking work in April and very few of those are under $1m projects, Foothills is killing me (so many homes), Rivera is ridiculous (time sucker), and my Oregon investors just bought out View Point from it's developers so the remainder of phase one and all of phase's 2&3 now falls in my lap, The phone rings daily with people still looking to build and move here, so nothing in the RSF market is slowing by any means in Havasu for now. Now will prices correct? maybe? as soon as PPL & PPP money runs out and people are forced to go back to work and generating Supply for the Demand, we have to order doors, windows, appliances and roof tile the second I am far enough along with the plans to know what they are, and we book Framers the second I get a deposit so all of those are about 4-6 months each out right now.
The FACT!!! is most of the demand here is being fueled by "CalExit", OregonExit and WashingtonExit so until the politics changes (common sense) and law and order are restored and respected in those states "ArizonaEntry" should continue.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I just permitted a few "work force" housing projects from a apartment complex to mini duplex's. If I had more rental project investors I could make a good size dent in the "work force" housing issue, but no one is looking for long term R.O.I. projects, Everyone wants instant gratification investments (how fast can you build it and get me my profit) and that is the major issue that plagues LHC's development.........GREED!!!!!!!! no one wants to invest in the community, I think that has to do with how Risky it is to be a rental property owner these days with the way the courts are across the nation = squater's rights, law suits etc..., The Residential single family (RSF) thing is still on a tear I am booked out well into 2022 and stopped taking work in April and very few of those are under $1m projects, Foothills is killing me (so many homes), Rivera is ridiculous (time sucker), and my Oregon investors just bought out View Point from it's developers so the remainder of phase one and all of phase's 2&3 now falls in my lap, The phone rings daily with people still looking to build and move here, so nothing in the RSF market is slowing by any means in Havasu for now. Now will prices correct? maybe? as soon as PPL & PPP money runs out and people are forced to go back to work and generating Supply for the Demand, we have to order doors, windows, appliances and roof tile the second I am far enough along with the plans to know what they are, and we book Framers the second I get a deposit so all of those are about 4-6 months each out right now.
The FACT!!! is most of the demand here is being fueled by "CalExit", OregonExit and WashingtonExit so until the politics changes (common sense) and law and order are restored and respected in those states "ArizonaEntry" should continue.

So you are saying 22 months instead of 18 months until financial armageddon??? 😉
 

SummitKarl

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So you are saying 22 months instead of 18 months until financial armageddon??? 😉
not for me.....I've packed it all away for the last several years, no mortgage, no new pontoons, no new motor homes, no new side by sides or new trucks, I Learned from the last crash....now I am just one bad cup of coffee away from some south pacific island....... permanently :cool:
 

78Southwind

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Help wanted signs are fine if they are will to pay. I can guarantee all those help wanted signs aren’t for positions that can pay my bills

Just to add to this. I have a friend who is a painter by trade but he knows a little bit about woodworking as well. He has been a painter for over 30 years and before covid he was making $32 an hour in quality control/painting (with overtime he was making over $80,000 a year). Then Covid hit and he lost his job. All of sudden painting jobs where $15 an hour. He tried to find work locally with no luck. I told him to use his California Training Benefits and learn a new skill. But he couldn't live off of unemployment for the year it would take to get retrained.

After about six months he found a job in Orange County making $26 a hour as a painter. Here is the kicker it was supposed to be a working foreman position but it was a bait in switch deal. So they offered him $23 an hour (no overtime) with the potential to make $26 once he made foreman. It took him about 4 months to make foreman with a pay raise to $26. He lives in the high desert and he is driving up to 120 miles one way for work. After about six months they gave him a gas card with a $400 monthly limit. If that isn't bad enough, here is the real effed-up part he would be making more money or pretty close to the same on unemployment after paying CA taxes, payroll taxes, health care costs and fuel costs. He probably should have tried CTB but I have also heard horror stories (due to covid) about EDD not responding to CTB requests.

After all this insanity, he was thinking about selling his house and moving out of California since he really can't afford it now, but where does he go. I told him about the mortgage payment forbearance program and he decided to do that to save some money up. Hopefully, things will get better for him.
 

grumpy88

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Just to add to this. I have a friend who is a painter by trade but he knows a little bit about woodworking as well. He has been a painter for over 30 years and before covid he was making $32 an hour in quality control/painting (with overtime he was making over $80,000 a year). Then Covid hit and he lost his job. All of sudden painting jobs where $15 an hour. He tried to find work locally with no luck. I told him to use his California Training Benefits and learn a new skill. But he couldn't live off of unemployment for the year it would take to get retrained.

After about six months he found a job in Orange County making $26 a hour as a painter. Here is the kicker it was supposed to be a working foreman position but it was a bait in switch deal. So they offered him $23 an hour (no overtime) with the potential to make $26 once he made foreman. It took him about 4 months to make foreman with a pay raise to $26. He lives in the high desert and he is driving up to 120 miles one way for work. After about six months they gave him a gas card with a $400 monthly limit. If that isn't bad enough, here is the real effed-up part he would be making more money or pretty close to the same on unemployment after paying CA taxes, payroll taxes, health care costs and fuel costs. He probably should have tried CTB but I have also heard horror stories (due to covid) about EDD not responding to CTB requests.

After all this insanity, he was thinking about selling his house and moving out of California since he really can't afford it now, but where does he go. I told him about the mortgage payment forbearance program and he decided to do that to save some money up. Hopefully, things will get better for him.
I know it doesnt pay the bills but your friend is a stand up guy ! He worked hard and sacrificed to just break even . A lot of people talk the talk but when the chips were down he went to work . I hope karma rewards him 🥃
 

C-Ya

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Just read today, some investment firm bought a complete development of single family homes from D.R. Horton that wasn't even built yet, and will rent them.:mad:

This is one of the reasons why supply is low. There are Hedgefunds that have gotten into the residential real estate market. This is a bye product of the 2008 housing crisis. I read that 3 of the funds own over 50,000 nationwide homes. They are cash buyers too, making it hard for individuals that need a mortgage to compete. There are now multiple funds getting into this type of investing. It might not seem like a problem now, but just imagine when the time comes that they own several million homes. It is conceivable that one day, there could be a Jeff Bezos of housing.

Another problem is Airbnb. More people own multiple houses than ever before. Homes that would normally be in inventory in typical real estate market don’t exist, because the internet has created a clever way for ordinary folks to make a side income renting out properties, while getting the additional gift of increasing equity. This again has taken a large chunk of homes out of the market.

Our country was founded by those that lived in Europe, where you could only lease land. Owning land was only for the upper class. I wonder is that is some corporations end game? Becoming the country’s landlord.
 

grumpy88

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This is one of the reasons why supply is low. There are Hedgefunds that have gotten into the residential real estate market. This is a bye product of the 2008 housing crisis. I read that 3 of the funds own over 50,000 nationwide homes. They are cash buyers too, making it hard for individuals that need a mortgage to compete. There are now multiple funds getting into this type of investing. It might not seem like a problem now, but just imagine when the time comes that they own several million homes. It is conceivable that one day, there could be a Jeff Bezos of housing.

Another problem is Airbnb. More people own multiple houses than ever before. Homes that would normally be in inventory in typical real estate market don’t exist, because the internet has created a clever way for ordinary folks to make a side income renting out properties, while getting the additional gift of increasing equity. This again has taken a large chunk of homes out of the market.

Our country was founded by those that lived in Europe, where you could only lease land. Owning land was only for the upper class. I wonder is that is some corporations end game? Becoming the country’s landlord.
All great points .
 

Lord M((Squared))

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This is one of the reasons why supply is low. There are Hedgefunds that have gotten into the residential real estate market. This is a bye product of the 2008 housing crisis. I read that 3 of the funds own over 50,000 nationwide homes. They are cash buyers too, making it hard for individuals that need a mortgage to compete. There are now multiple funds getting into this type of investing. It might not seem like a problem now, but just imagine when the time comes that they own several million homes. It is conceivable that one day, there could be a Jeff Bezos of housing.

Another problem is Airbnb. More people own multiple houses than ever before. Homes that would normally be in inventory in typical real estate market don’t exist, because the internet has created a clever way for ordinary folks to make a side income renting out properties, while getting the additional gift of increasing equity. This again has taken a large chunk of homes out of the market.

Our country was founded by those that lived in Europe, where you could only lease land. Owning land was only for the upper class. I wonder is that is some corporations end game? Becoming the country’s landlord.
Look into BlacKRock as they are one of many aggressive institutional investors buying single family homes out bidding regular home buyers. It's all bad when you add in the constant printing of US dollars.......this could end up being a death blow to not just to the economy but to the very existence of our country. We have a lot to be concerned about as americans and you can bet the rest of the world will sit back and enjoy the fall of this country. No one is going to help us. We have been sold out to China by our elected officials for a long time and this ends one way.......very bloody! Just f@#king sad!
 

Raffit78

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There was plenty of “hedge funds” buying up rental properties in 2004-2008 as well. And thousands of those homes were sold for pennies on the dollar on the auction block, when they could not sustain without tenants.

When money is free flowing as it is, there’s no care in the world, rent big, spend large, buy bigger “yolo”…..you only live once they say.
 

clarence

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Hedge funds are buying single-family homes because they believe it's possible they may be able to replace them with even more profitable multi-family buildings.

As part of his $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan, the Biden administration is pushing local governments to allow apartment buildings in neighborhoods that are restricted to single-family homes. The administration claims it’s a way to ease a national affordable housing shortage and combat racial injustice in the housing market.

Current zoning laws that favor single-family homes, known as exclusionary zoning, have disproportionately hurt low-income people who can’t afford to move to the suburbs, the administration said. Their only choice is living in crowded apartment buildings. Biden’s proposal would incentivize local governments to get rid of exclusionary zoning by awarding grants and tax credits to cities that change their zoning regulations.


 

clarence

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Investment firms really can’t lose. If the Biden administration is successful, or if cities like Atlanta voluntarily adopt these rules, as Minneapolis and the entire state of Oregon already have, it is a win. Investment firms can carve up single-family properties and add additional units of varying sizes and shapes to them. Depending on local rules, the new housing will be sold or rented. In cases where an entire development is purchased, as it was outside Houston, investment firms can knock them down, build high-density apartment buildings, and create an endless income stream. If the Biden plan fails, they still have long-term investment rental properties.

 

DMF

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Like I said before. There will be no work union or non union.
I don't know about union work these days, but non-union prevailing wage work is super busy in the electrical trade. Berg, Helix, Rancho Pacific, Safeway, RDM, etc are all offering cash bonuses to there employee's if they can recruit people. I cannot hire a decent electrician to save my life.
 
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