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Limber Prices Opinions

Looking Glass

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My neighbor had a home ready to build, right before the 30% + increase in Lumber. He has been treading water hoping for a return of the prices from before. I do not see prices hurting house building and talking to Home Depot,Lowes etc. they all seem to believe as long as the Market Bears the Pain, won't ever roll back. I'm afraid they are correct. Damn, that could destroy a GC if he Bid the homes @ a price and then the Huge Increase.
 

Nordie

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There are a ton of variables that go into it, but yes you can get screwed. For example when my company bids a job they have to factor in rebar prices. Sometimes jobs get delayed etc. Well if the bar prices go up in that amount of time no matter what we bid, we still have to buy at the new increased price. Sometimes the opposite happens and you get way less phone calls from your project manager. Also labor prices, Sometimes there's raises and there's a factored crew cost into a job, if you're not careful you can run over that cost and really dip into the profit margins. I've witnessed both time and time again.

The best way to GC is to get in tight with the really wealthy and do the jobs for cost plus. For example my uncle is very very close with a fella, and the guy just makes up work for my uncle, and if he doesn't have much going his daughters hire my uncle.
 

mesquito_creek

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And What? He just absorbs this increase after a Bid has been accepted?
The customer pays... bids are contracts that state that they can be subject to pricing changes. They are not cast in stone. Or the contract/bid states something like good for 30 days only etc... you sign it and the gc locks in material pricing and puts a material lien on your property.
 

Nordie

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The customer pays... bids are contracts that state that they can be subject to pricing changes. They are not cast in stone. Or the contract/bid states something like good for 30 days only etc... you sign it and the gc locks in material pricing and puts a material lien on your property.
I bet you're right on par. For some reason being a sub our are locked in for 90 days and usually when it goes over that the GCs beg and plead for the same price.
 

2Driver

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We looked at a nice custom build in Prescott 2900'with a lot of wood besides just framing. GC claimed he was into lumber for $100,000.

I doubt the guy at Home depot knows what he is talking about. LOL I tend not to get my financial advice from Home depot employees. Im sure once Corvid is over and normal lumber supply's resume, it will come back down, especially if housing slows if interest rates go up.
 

Mandelon

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I'm hoping they drop back down again too. We have plans being drawn up now for four houses. I'm going to keep them as rentals.

The City makes it tougher too. Energy regulations, tons of rebar, earthquake stuff, and solar panels required now as well. Ugh. They want affordable housing, then charge $40,000 a unit in fees and costs. :rolleyes:
 

Done-it-again

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And What? He just absorbs this increase after a Bid has been accepted?
who the home owner? If so yes.

If the gc bids with expected lumber increase coming up he could lose the contract and the other gc who don’t wins and then can add the co when build starts.

it’s a game. Have you seen the boat (tender) called PO and the yacht called change order. It’s something like that.
 

n2otoofast4u

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Everything is up. Steel, PVC/ABS, Copper, Lumber, you name it- its up....... We deal with big developers, and many are pumping the brakes. The greedy fucks are going to turn this thing over. Are we looking at 08? NOPE, money is WAY different. Are we going to see a correction? Yep. I just hope I can get my house and boat sold before then.
 

Looking Glass

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Friend is building house for his wifes sis @cost+. <1600sqft and her lumber cost just jumped $5k

Everything is up. Steel, PVC/ABS, Copper, Lumber, you name it- its up....... We deal with big developers, and many are pumping the brakes. The greedy fucks are going to turn this thing over. Are we looking at 08? NOPE, money is WAY different. Are we going to see a correction? Yep. I just hope I can get my house and boat sold before then.

You believe a correction to back a year or so?
 

Looking Glass

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We looked at a nice custom build in Prescott 2900'with a lot of wood besides just framing. GC claimed he was into lumber for $100,000.

I doubt the guy at Home depot knows what he is talking about. LOL I tend not to get my financial advice from Home depot employees. Im sure once Corvid is over and normal lumber supply's resume, it will come back down, especially if housing slows if interest rates go up.

The Employee was NOT bragging about anything. I asked him what his thoughts were on this 30% JACK UP? I actually do agree when he stated, why would they roll back the price if People Accept it and move on. He also said the average person has no idea how much OSB HD had in stock Nation Wide, and the minute the price spiked, you know that product that was in stock and probably paid for Jumped to the current 30% increase price.
I understand noone knows, but just felt they may have heard something or?
 

2Driver

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Supply is the issue. A good read about the Maricopa county house buying frenzy concludes it’s all supply based. Builders are slower to produce due to supply chain slow downs and residents are reluctant to list due to Covid and it appears it’s a buying frenzy as there are more buyers than sellers.

The spec I financed was supposed to be done 4.5 months ago and it’s all Covid slow down related. The supply chain is choked and gives the impression demand has tripled. It hasn’t.
 

Looking Glass

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Supply is the issue. A good read about the Maricopa county house buying frenzy concludes it’s all supply based. Builders are slower to produce due to supply chain slow downs and residents are reluctant to list due to Covid and it appears it’s a buying frenzy as there are more buyers than sellers.

The spec I financed was supposed to be done 4.5 months ago and it’s all Covid slow down related. The supply chain is choked and gives the impression demand has tripled. It hasn’t.

Thank-You!! It is easy for the "Public" to be led to believe things without any inside knowledge.👍
 

n2otoofast4u

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Supply is the issue. A good read about the Maricopa county house buying frenzy concludes it’s all supply based. Builders are slower to produce due to supply chain slow downs and residents are reluctant to list due to Covid and it appears it’s a buying frenzy as there are more buyers than sellers.

The spec I financed was supposed to be done 4.5 months ago and it’s all Covid slow down related. The supply chain is choked and gives the impression demand has tripled. It hasn’t.
Here in Oregon we are a HUGE lumber supplier to the Western states. When Covid hit, there wasn’t a tree fell in the woods for damn near 4 months. During that time, construction never slowed. Then the HUGE wild fires started, and not only pushed most of the loggers out of the woods, it also burned 10s of thousands of acres of harvestable timber. I assure you, there isn’t a log truck sitting idle, or a chainsaw not running right now.
 

Lucky Larry

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I'm hoping they drop back down again too. We have plans being drawn up now for four houses. I'm going to keep them as rentals.

The City makes it tougher too. Energy regulations, tons of rebar, earthquake stuff, and solar panels required now as well. Ugh. They want affordable housing, then charge $40,000 a unit in fees and costs. :rolleyes:
I feel your pain. Simple grading project for a house I’m starting. Conditions include a second burrowing owl study, 1 for migratory birds because it’s now breeding season, I have to have a Native American monitor on site for Indian artifacts (that they keep at my expense) and an archeologist for the same type reasons. Fighting F & W item now as well. I used the same argument- you wonder why there’s no affordable housing. I’m hoping lumber will drop during my delay.

Mills were shut for a while, building never slowed. Spent a month up in Washington this summer ~ lumber trucks were running by all day long.
 

2Driver

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I feel your pain. Simple grading project for a house I’m starting. Conditions include a second burrowing owl study, 1 for migratory birds because it’s now breeding season, I have to have a Native American monitor on site for Indian artifacts (that they keep at my expense) and an archeologist for the same type reasons. Fighting F & W item now as well. I used the same argument- you wonder why there’s no affordable housing. I’m hoping lumber will drop during my delay.

Mills were shut for a while, building never slowed. Spent a month up in Washington this summer ~ lumber trucks were running by all day long.
Good God where is this?

Buddy has a guardrail business. If they leave the roadway, which is all the time, they have to have an inspector inspect the vehicle for invasive seeds before reentering the highway.
 

monkeyswrench

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I've been burned by lumber prices, but not nearly to the extent of current issues. Doing roofing, plywood tended to be the major wood product used. I had bid two or three jobs, and some hurricane hit. FEMA, I believe, bought a large supply, as did every retail outlet in the area. Boarding windows and such I suppose. The result was a 30% spike that lasted 8 months or so. On average, I was buying between 2 and 4 bunks a week. For a small timer, serious kick to the balls.

Now, here are a couple variables that I am worried about for builders. Will the current administration's environmental stuff hurt lumber as well? Fuel costs for inbound, regs for truckers? Hell, a lot of lumber had been coming from Canada, will that effect things? Economy speculations aside, just logistics costs may cause the prices to stay elevated...until the demand drops.
 

Dettom

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I feel your pain. Simple grading project for a house I’m starting. Conditions include a second burrowing owl study, 1 for migratory birds because it’s now breeding season, I have to have a Native American monitor on site for Indian artifacts (that they keep at my expense) and an archeologist for the same type reasons. Fighting F & W item now as well. I used the same argument- you wonder why there’s no affordable housing. I’m hoping lumber will drop during my delay.

Mills were shut for a while, building never slowed. Spent a month up in Washington this summer ~ lumber trucks were running by all day long.
At the current rate of things, taking the current administration into account, it won’t be long before the environuts appoint an animal to sit on the board and require everyone to wait on building anything until said animal has spoken.
 

Done-it-again

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Everything is up. Steel, PVC/ABS, Copper, Lumber, you name it- its up....... We deal with big developers, and many are pumping the brakes. The greedy fucks are going to turn this thing over. Are we looking at 08? NOPE, money is WAY different. Are we going to see a correction? Yep. I just hope I can get my house and boat sold before then.
steel has gone nuts. We buy lots of pre gal pipe and tube and has gone up 35%. A 1.660OD 12 ga x 24’ now is costing $50ea at 61pcs per bundle.(bundle price). With more increase coming.
 

Slink

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I'm in that pickle right now.....getting ready to build my lake front retirement home in TN.....plans should be finalized this week and then the GC is going to bid it for me......Catch 22 with the rates this low or wait for lumber to come down and rates go up....FML
 

Looking Glass

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I'm in that pickle right now.....getting ready to build my lake front retirement home in TN.....plans should be finalized this week and then the GC is going to bid it for me......Catch 22 with the rates this low or wait for lumber to come down and rates go up....FML
Second guessing the future has always been partially going with your "GUT". This situation is Sickening as much of it is so unnecessary and a Party in Power caused "Perfect Storm"
 

SoCalDave

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I'm in that pickle right now.....getting ready to build my lake front retirement home in TN.....plans should be finalized this week and then the GC is going to bid it for me......Catch 22 with the rates this low or wait for lumber to come down and rates go up....FML
What area in TN? I was born and raised in Crossville for the first 18 years of my life and often wonder why I ever left my home town. We go back every couple of years to visit and as I'm getting older I really miss that atmosphere.
 

Slink

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What area in TN? I was born and raised in Crossville for the first 18 years of my life and often wonder why I ever left my home town. We go back every couple of years to visit and as I'm getting older I really miss that atmosphere.
Harriman....on Watts Bar
 

Slink

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Second guessing the future has always been partially going with your "GUT". This situation is Sickening as much of it is so unnecessary and a Party in Power caused "Perfect Storm"
Yep....it's a walkout basement style home.....Leaning on just doing the upstairs main floor and building out the basement when I retire and doing some of the work myself.....
 

SoCalDave

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Harriman....on Watts Bar
My mother was born and raised in Rockwood. Often went there to visit my Granny ever couple of weeks on the weekends. Our family has had a lake front lot on Watts Bar in Ten Mile since the early 60's. It really hasn't changed that much in 50 years.
Beautiful area to live, good luck on your build/retirement.
 

530RL

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Lumber supplies have been reduced due to COVID, demand is up as people spend more time at home and want to improve their homes, demand for new construction is up due to historical low borrowing costs and there are very large tariffs on lumber that have fortunately recently been reduced.

I suspect the recent surge in lumber costs will moderate or plateau, but these higher costs will remain not only for lumber, steel, concrete and other inputs but also for construction labor as that is in incredible short supply.

Absent a large external negative event, I’m hard pressed to see how any of these cost inputs moderate? 🤷‍♂️
 

TITTIES AND BEER

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I'm hoping they drop back down again too. We have plans being drawn up now for four houses. I'm going to keep them as rentals.

The City makes it tougher too. Energy regulations, tons of rebar, earthquake stuff, and solar panels required now as well. Ugh. They want affordable housing, then charge $40,000 a unit in fees and costs. :rolleyes:
Wifey wants to get into the rental deal but she would have to handle them and with this COV crap I’m sure we would get the I can’t pay fucks .
 

Looking Glass

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Wifey wants to get into the rental deal but she would have to handle them and with this COV crap I’m sure we would get the I can’t pay fucks .

Be very careful, what you wish for. You know = The Grass is always Greener?
 

Slink

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My mother was born and raised in Rockwood. Often went there to visit my Granny ever couple of weeks on the weekends. Our family has had a lake front lot on Watts Bar in Ten Mile since the early 60's. It really hasn't changed that much in 50 years.
Beautiful area to live, good luck on your build/retirement.
Thank You.....plan on doing a build thread once I get going to show folks a different body of water other than Havasu / Parker......
 

Yoshiro

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Timing is everything.

You guys will appreciate this story.

March 2020 I buy 2 acres in NW Oregon, and choose a builder to build my house. (It's one of those on your lot builders) I get an initial quote for the stock house plans in April, then begin the customization and upgrade process with them. After all the changes were made we signed the contract mid year for a 3,200 ft single story. Then we waited for their engineering drawings/plans so I could get a building permit. Due to Covid, their engineering took longer than expected and I received the plans in late September. By this time lumber prices were on the rise big time, but I was locked in to their pre Covid pricing as long as I could get the building permit within 90 days of receiving their plans. So, I needed to have building permits in hand by late December. Covid caused the permitting process at our county to be way slow, so I hired a permit agent to expedite. (Best $1,600 I've ever spent) The builder let me know that by late last year his cost on just the lumber package for the house had gone up $30k! I was sweating it as if I couldn't obtain the permits within 90 days, then the builder according to their contract could update the pricing, which would put the house way out of my budget. Well, we got the permits with just a few days to spare in late December. The below picture is where we are at today, trusses are going in. I was told by the builder that they have rewritten their contracts going forward, and now there's a spot in there about building materials prices that can fluctuate. It was a stressful time to get this build going for sure, but I'm glad I didn't have to pay the new pricing.
 

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Lucky Larry

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Good God where is this?

Buddy has a guardrail business. If they leave the roadway, which is all the time, they have to have an inspector inspect the vehicle for invasive seeds before reentering the highway.
Riverside ~ just south of Woodcrest. Simple 1 acre lot. Have 3 lots so triple those costs.

Inspector for seeds - that’ll blow anyway? Years ago F & W was proposing traffic on I-10 thru Rialto/Fontana/Ontario slow to 15 mph during breeding season for Delhi Sands Flower Loving Fly.

Now back to our regularly scheduled limber thread.
 
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EmpirE231

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tweakers are gonna start stripping framed up lots lol

I shear walled the inside of our home gym build around July, and OSB was $13 a sheet. same OSB now is $32...
 

EmpirE231

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Riverside ~ just south of Woodcrest. Simple 1 acre lot. Have 3 lots so triple those costs.

Inspector for seeds - that’ll blow anyway? Years ago F & W was proposing traffic on I-10 thru Rialto/Fontana/Ontario slow to 15 mph during breeding season for Delhi Sands Flower Loving Fly.

Now back to our previously scheduled lumber thread.
I'm in riverside, close to woodcrest....where the heck is this more specifically? lol sounds crazy.
 

Cdog

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At what point is steel or aluminum building material a better or equal buy? They use them in commercial applications all the time.
 

mesquito_creek

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At what point is steel or aluminum building material a better or equal buy? They use them in commercial applications all the time.
Metal is traditionally a bit cheaper and fast to install, but I am finding that its not that much cheaper. I am talking about a 2000-2400 sq ft detached shop buildings on residential dirt. I am still a fan of stacking block, primarily because I have built several buildings that way on my own, albeit its been about 10 years. Block is a one trade job from the ground to the top plate and it finished inside and out (compared to metal). I got some recent rough quotes that really put all three (wood/block/metal) close enough on total cost I am not sure there is cost advantage one either of them. BUT my build site is pretty rural and 50 miles from the first smaller town. Everyone is so busy I am going to most likely put it off for 6 months to a year.

Steel metal building suppliers have told me 12-16 weeks with no guarantee on pricing until the day I pay and no guarantee on delivery date until I pay and find out later from the metal suppliers on time to deliver...

On a metal building 40x60x16 with 2 12x14 rv doors... I am getting quotes at about 100K-120K... Thats a 40K metal building from a building manufacture plus installation, permitting, engineering, foundation/slab (NO electric/NO Water) ...etc... Nothern AZ/Souther UT area.
 
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Dettom

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Here in Oregon we are a HUGE lumber supplier to the Western states. When Covid hit, there wasn’t a tree fell in the woods for damn near 4 months. During that time, construction never slowed. Then the HUGE wild fires started, and not only pushed most of the loggers out of the woods, it also burned 10s of thousands of acres of harvestable timber. I assure you, there isn’t a log truck sitting idle, or a chainsaw not running right now.
I’ve heard this..
 

Lucky Larry

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tweakers are gonna start stripping framed up lots lol

I shear walled the inside of our home gym build around July, and OSB was $13 a sheet. same OSB now is $32...
I'm in riverside, close to woodcrest....where the heck is this more specifically? lol sounds crazy.
Alder & Ave C, up off of Scottsdale. Oh, and they want a head wall on a non- County maintained dirt road, also at my expense.
 

JUSTWANNARACE

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Timing is everything.

You guys will appreciate this story.

March 2020 I buy 2 acres in NW Oregon, and choose a builder to build my house. (It's one of those on your lot builders) I get an initial quote for the stock house plans in April, then begin the customization and upgrade process with them. After all the changes were made we signed the contract mid year for a 3,200 ft single story. Then we waited for their engineering drawings/plans so I could get a building permit. Due to Covid, their engineering took longer than expected and I received the plans in late September. By this time lumber prices were on the rise big time, but I was locked in to their pre Covid pricing as long as I could get the building permit within 90 days of receiving their plans. So, I needed to have building permits in hand by late December. Covid caused the permitting process at our county to be way slow, so I hired a permit agent to expedite. (Best $1,600 I've ever spent) The builder let me know that by late last year his cost on just the lumber package for the house had gone up $30k! I was sweating it as if I couldn't obtain the permits within 90 days, then the builder according to their contract could update the pricing, which would put the house way out of my budget. Well, we got the permits with just a few days to spare in late December. The below picture is where we are at today, trusses are going in. I was told by the builder that they have rewritten their contracts going forward, and now there's a spot in there about building materials prices that can fluctuate. It was a stressful time to get this build going for sure, but I'm glad I didn't have to pay the new pricing.
HiLine by chance?
 

traquer

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What are concrete prices like? ICF construction has come a long way, but here I foresee the cost being the specialized labor and steel rebar
in Cali
1614640424994.png
 

Desert Whaler

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Kind of reminds me of 'Fuel Surcharges' on sportfishing boats.
When fuel prices jump, they require extra $$$ in cash before you step on the boat in the morning, even if they are burning fuel they bought at a lower price.
I've never seen them offer a 'refund' when fuel prices drop however. . . . glad I have my own skiff.
 
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mesquito_creek

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What are concrete prices like? ICF construction has come a long way, but here I foresee the cost being the specialized labor and steel rebar
in Cali
View attachment 977589
I actually had a guy mention it in my estimation gathering exercise... and its not cheaper, its getting competitive, but for a shop where you are not really super concerned about insulation values etc and all the stuff ICF provides its not competitive at all. Plus concrete is 210-220 a yard where I am at last I checked. That was a couple weeks ago, so it could be higher...
 
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