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Lumber prices.....????

just_floatin

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I have a good size construction upgrade project on hold due to the cost of lumber. I feel bad for my concrete, pavers and flooring guys that are impacted because of the cost of lumber.
 

n2otoofast4u

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We are seeing LOTS big projects pump the brakes until the resin and lumber mess return to planet earth.
 

2FORCEFULL

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If you are worried about lumber prices dont start the project
I read an article about lumber, and how you look at it price wise.....what really happening is the inflated dollar, they where showing that if you bought lumber with corn, or any other commodity, or any thing but a dollar bill, the price was inline... mostly whats happening right now is sticker shock.... but,... people don't have a problem with paying a million for a house.... and will even throw another couple hunderd grand just to get the house.... and those building new don't care if the lumber pack is 20 grand more , or even more, the dirt tripled .... the real problem that most don't see till it's to late is the house they sold was taxed on 200k, with a 3% increase per year... now the new house they got is taxed at over a mil.... now they have a tax bill of 6 or 7 k per year...I think it's a safe market as far as spending goes,... but your dollar won't buy as much as it did a couple years ago....like i said, I bought my first new car for 3000... that won't pay the tax now...
 

2FORCEFULL

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I have a good size construction upgrade project on hold due to the cost of lumber. I feel bad for my concrete, pavers and flooring guys that are impacted because of the cost of lumber.
the price of lumber is whatt it is, so is inflation...
 

2FORCEFULL

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the price of lumber only comes in to play if you are building a wood fence.... if you look a the final cost to build you will see that every thing went up. lots are X's four right now...
 

2FORCEFULL

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building on your level lot prices have went up 100k in 14 months
 

timmahhhh

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Yeah I got a framing bid for 99k for labor on a 3500 ft house. I'm gonna have to take a couple months off and do it myself..

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2FORCEFULL

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Yeah I got a framing bid for 99k for labor on a 3500 ft house. I'm gonna have to take a couple months off and do it myself..

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so about 10% or less of value when done.... oh, and how many sq ft under roof, and how big of garage...
 

just_floatin

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Cement and pavers are still right at $5.60 per square foot including material my cost in Phoenix.
 

timmahhhh

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so about 10% or less of value when done
Yeah but if you wanted to pay a million dollars to build a million dollar house you would just buy a million dollar house that was already built...

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78Southwind

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Ark's Cathie Wood Says U.S. Set Up for 'Massive' Deflation

Cathie said lumber is already down 30% from the high.

What do you guys say?

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TeamGreene

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Yeah I got a framing bid for 99k for labor on a 3500 ft house. I'm gonna have to take a couple months off and do it myself..

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WTF 28 sq ft for labor I might start framing again at that price
 

NicPaus

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What are you paying a yard for concrete right now? Judging by what a bag of it is going for at HD, Im afraid to call!
I have to check current. My retained wall is held up currently by the gas Co. There line is in the way. Around 1300$ for 10 yards.
 

snowboat

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Ark's Cathie Wood Says U.S. Set Up for 'Massive' Deflation

Cathie said lumber is already down 30% from the high.

What do you guys say?

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At this point, what Cathy Woods says should probably be disregarded. Check out the fall of of the ARK etf's.
 

2FORCEFULL

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WTF 28 sq ft for labor I might start framing again at that price
might wanna reconsider,...you don't know how big the house is.....how could you know how much it is a sq ft????????
 

timmahhhh

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I provided the square footage and price further up the thread.

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2FORCEFULL

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I provided the square footage and price further up the thread.

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I provided the square footage and price further up the thread.

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Yeah I got a framing bid for 99k for labor on a 3500 ft house. I'm gonna have to take a couple months off and do it myself.. if you are referring to this post. there is not near enough info to bid price per sq ft to build.... unless you assume...... a 3500 sq ft home , one would assume that there would be garages and patios,...

example......
I just built a 1777 sq ft home... but,.... there is 3794 sq ft under roof...... 1777 living, 463' garage.....1030' rv garage... 525 ft of patio.. cost to build was 280k... if only using the livable sq ft , it cost $157 per sq ft...but to do it correct, you have to figure under roof sq ft... so ,...3794 sq ft under roof, comes out to only$74.00 per ft.... thats a 62 x 16 rv garage w/ 14' high door, a 2 car, 3 br 3 bth home with covered patio's...2x6 exterior walls , and every wall insulated including interior walls, all hand troweled finish drywall, dash stucco
 
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2FORCEFULL

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Same as people using price per sq ft of living to see what the home is worth,... thats a useless figure that is used... what if the home has an acre lot and double rv garage,,, or 3 bath vs 2 bath.... for ever lake view and such...10' clg's vs 8'

my example was before the recent price hike,..... now you are looking a close to $100 per ft for the same home, or even more...
 

Havasu blue label

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Your getting bids from the wrong friends that number in havasu don’t make any sense
 

2FORCEFULL

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also,.... I'm gonna make a prediction ,.... the cost for a home on your lot.... even if the lumber price drops back to where it was,... the cost for the home will not...profit margins will just rise...
 
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Havasu blue label

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Probably that’s what Steve Anderson homes did his name was behind two home builders burned me for 10 grand in 2000 .
 

timmahhhh

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also,.... I'm gonna make a prediction ,.... the cost for a home on your lot.... even if the lumber price drops back to where it was,... the cost for the home will not...profit margins will just rise...
Fingers crossed...Hopefully you are right.

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TeamGreene

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might wanna reconsider,...you don't know how big the house is.....how could you know how much it is a sq ft????????
Yeah I got a framing bid for 99k for labor on a 3500 ft house. I'm gonna have to take a couple months off and do it myself..

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You see you take 99,000 and divide it by 3500 and presto
 

X Hoser

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Interesting conversation with a Northern Idaho builder. I said it looks like the mills are full of timber and product packed for shipment. His response was there is plenty of product, the problem is they can’t find truck drivers to deliver it. His statement was Amazon was building processing centers as fast as they can and paying truck drivers more than anybody else. Either they can’t get drivers or they have to pay them so much to lure them away from Amazon that the price of lumber just keeps going up. His prospective, not sure of the accuracy of it?
 

Ace in the Hole

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Interesting conversation with a Northern Idaho builder. I said it looks like the mills are full of timber and product packed for shipment. His response was there is plenty of product, the problem is they can’t find truck drivers to deliver it. His statement was Amazon was building processing centers as fast as they can and paying truck drivers more than anybody else. Either they can’t get drivers or they have to pay them so much to lure them away from Amazon that the price of lumber just keeps going up. His prospective, not sure of the accuracy of it?

We've been traveling around the PNW, all the way out to MT and WY. In the past two weeks we've been in UT, WY, MT, OR, WA, and ID. The labor market up here in WA is the worst I've seen, second only to ID. It's a disaster for local businesses etc. I can only imagine on the larger ones. I have a feeling things will get worse before better.

That said...ive seen more logs stacked, lumber stacked, etc in storage lots and distribution lots than I have ever seen before. There is a train that runs about a mile from the cabin..lumber trains are common on it. Supply is there..its just backing up at the bottleneck points.
 

DWC

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Supply chain definitely isn’t helping but it wasn’t what drove pricing through the roof. A large chunk of So Cal product comes via ship/rail. The truck portion is typically dedicated flatbeds.
Pricing on framing has dropped quite a bit over the last couple weeks. Some on demand and I’m sure some on panic of higher rates slowing things down. Where it levels out will depend on housing starts and the value of the $.
 

X Hoser

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We've been traveling around the PNW, all the way out to MT and WY. In the past two weeks we've been in UT, WY, MT, OR, WA, and ID. The labor market up here in WA is the worst I've seen, second only to ID. It's a disaster for local businesses etc. I can only imagine on the larger ones. I have a feeling things will get worse before better.

That said...ive seen more logs stacked, lumber stacked, etc in storage lots and distribution lots than I have ever seen before. There is a train that runs about a mile from the cabin..lumber trains are common on it. Supply is there..its just backing up at the bottleneck points.
We’ve been on the road too. In Mt Rushmore, SD right now. The owner of a local restaurant we ate at today told us she had to stop serving dinner, only breakfast and lunch because she can’t find anyone to hire. Said she ran an ad for a dishwasher at $18 an hour and did not get one reply or application! Things won’t change until Uncle Sam quits handing out free $$$.
 
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Reading this thread has me more scared than I already was about our builder giving me that dreaded phone call about having to up the price due to lumber costs!
although it’s mostly framed I still fear that call
Hopefully I don’t get it lol


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Ace in the Hole

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We’ve been on the road too. In Mt Rushmore, SD right now. The owner of a local restaurant we ate at today told us she had to stop serving dinner, only breakfast and lunch because she can’t find anyone to hire. Said she ran an ad for a dishwasher at $18 an hour and did not get one reply or application! Things won’t change until Uncle Sam quits handing out free $$$.

We went to McKenzie's restaurant in Idaho Falls.. (damn good food and service BTW). It was an hour wait...just like everywhere...but once inside you saw the real issue...3 waitresses.. 3 for an entire restaurant. I think it was 2 people in the kitchen. It was a bad situation for the staff and some of the locals were absolute douchebags to the staff about delays and waits. Our waitress was awesome..the hostess was all hands on deck too. They said they ran a 2 week job fair and only 2 people applied...unemployment pays better. It hit me wrong and I kinda stewed on that. We gave both of them a nice cash tip..pretty much what the tab was..and I thought they were going to cry. I got the managers card and left him a message about how great they were and that I hope he realizes as much.

Were in Leavenworth WA right now...its busy as expected but the restaurants are either closed certain meals or entire day ranges over staffing shortages. The democrats really own this mess and its going to stall any "recovery" we are having.
 

timmahhhh

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All this talk about people wanting to stay on unemployment instead of working for less money has got to be a lie... President Biden or his press secretary said it's not true it's just another Republican conspiracy....

Just kidding, who would want to bust their ass, when a vacation pays better?

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X Hoser

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We went to McKenzie's restaurant in Idaho Falls.. (damn good food and service BTW). It was an hour wait...just like everywhere...but once inside you saw the real issue...3 waitresses.. 3 for an entire restaurant. I think it was 2 people in the kitchen. It was a bad situation for the staff and some of the locals were absolute douchebags to the staff about delays and waits. Our waitress was awesome..the hostess was all hands on deck too. They said they ran a 2 week job fair and only 2 people applied...unemployment pays better. It hit me wrong and I kinda stewed on that. We gave both of them a nice cash tip..pretty much what the tab was..and I thought they were going to cry. I got the managers card and left him a message about how great they were and that I hope he realizes as much.

Were in Leavenworth WA right now...its busy as expected but the restaurants are either closed certain meals or entire day ranges over staffing shortages. The democrats really own this mess and its going to stall any "recovery" we are having.
We were at McKenzie’s on June 5th. Ditto to what you stated. Our waitress was great and we left a big tip also. Place was 1/3 full at best. 45 minute wait for a table. Safe Travels!
 

Ace in the Hole

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We were at McKenzie’s on June 5th. Ditto to what you stated. Our waitress was great and we left a big tip also. Place was 1/3 full at best. 45 minute wait for a table. Safe Travels!
We were there around the 13th. Our waitress was Raquel, and the hostess first name started with a C and she had been there three years..but I can't remember her name off hand. They really bent over backwards..even though they were slammed. We liked the place and would stop in again...it was just very telling of the labor market.
 

hallett21

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In Home Depot today. 1/2 struc1 plywood $79 a sheet. I thought stuff was coming down lol


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