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Pretty good article on the housing craze...

Tank

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Interesting read -

How wild is the U.S. housing market right now? So wild, half of the houses listed nationwide in April went pending in less than a week. So wild, one poll found that most buyers admitted to bidding on homes they’d never seen in person. So wild, a Bethesda, Maryland, resident recently included in her written offer “a pledge to name her first-born child after the seller,” according to the CEO of the realty site Redfin. So wild, she did not get the house.

Pick a housing statistic at random, and it’s probably setting an all-time record. Home prices: record high. Inventory: record low. Percentage of homes selling above asking price: record high. Average time on market: record low. With prices headed to the moon and listings blinking in and out of existence like quantum particles, nobody seems to know exactly when this is going to stop. “In my time studying housing markets, I’ve seen bubbles and I’ve seen busts,” says Bill McBride, an economics writer who famously predicted the 2007 housing crash. “But I’ve never seen anything quite like this. It’s a perfect storm.” So what exactly is happening? The short answer is: supply and demand. The longer answer is also supply and demand.

On the demand side, demographics are the big, invisible engine driving the machine. Millennials are the largest generation in American history. Having been too financially constrained to buy houses at a normal rate in the previous decade, many of them are now storming into the housing market. Some might feel a desperate need to escape their current apartment, basement, or home after the coronavirus pandemic closed much of the world for more than a year and led to an outbreak of mind-numbing cabin fever. To make things even wilder, homebuyers are flush with cash after a year in which the national savings rate soared to its highest level in decades. On top of all that, interest rates, having basically declined for most of the past 40 years, recently touched new lows, luring more buyers into the market and encouraging higher bids.

More generally, the pandemic turned the kaleidoscope of U.S. migration, and many families—especially many high-income families with work-from-wherever jobs—are shopping around for sunny, spacious real estate and bidding up prices wherever they land. “We’ve never seen migration like this,” executives at Toll Brothers, the real-estate company, recently said on an earnings call. “Just shy of half the buyers are coming from out of state” in the hottest markets of Idaho, Texas, and Florida. When people leave multimillion-dollar houses in, say, Los Angeles to plunk down $1 million on a house that was worth $500,000 a year ago, they turn a merely frenzied housing market into a once-in-history, hair-on-fire, what-the-hell-is-happening bonanza.

Supply issues are just as important. Years of insufficient building and a construction pause during the pandemic have led to low inventory. Seniors, who in previous decades sold their homes to downsize, are now more likely to “age in place,” which is keeping millions of homes off the market. Plus, some builders are putting their projects on hold because of the sudden tripling of lumber prices, which could delay the construction boom this country so badly needs.

The 2021 housing craze feels as sudden and shocking as the pandemic, but it was decades in the making. The emergence of the huge Millennial generation in the 1980s made strong housing demand in the early 2020s entirely predictable. The Great Recession’s clobbering of the construction industry made today’s housing shortage equally foreseeable. Indeed, McBride, the economics writer, saw all this coming from a mile away. So, I asked him, what does he see happening next—a rise, a crash, or a plateau?

“It’s not clear at all to me that things are going to slow down significantly in the near future,” he said. “In 2005, I had a strong sense that the hot market would turn and that, when it turned, things would get very ugly. Today, I don’t have that sense at all, because all of the fundamentals are there. Demand will be high for a while, because Millennials need houses. Prices will keep rising for a while, because inventory is so low.”

The only places where McBride told me he could envision a bubble bursting are locations where urban residents bought second homes in a panic—only to have the urban core quickly get vaccinated and normalize in 2021. “We might see some price declines in the second-home areas, like small towns in New England and other beach towns on the East Coast. But even there, we just might see a shift where more people decide that they like owning second homes.”

If you want to know where real-estate prices are going in the next month, he said, the key metric is inventory. “It’s hard to precisely measure housing demand,” he told me. “It’s much easier to study available inventory.” After crashing to an all-time low in April, active inventory has actually increased for three straight weeks. That’s the good news. The bad news is, at its current pace, the number of houses on the market nationwide won’t reach normal levels for about 14 months, all things being equal.

Still, rising inventory is one of several signs that we may have reached peak ludicrousness. The share of homes that have to reduce their price to sell is finally ticking up after a historic plunge, according to the real-estate research firm Altos Research. Housing starts are back to their highest levels since before the Great Recession, even with lumber prices in the stratosphere. Although there aren’t a lot of homes on the market, there are a lot of new homes on the way—buyers just need to be a little patient.

At the end of our conversation, I presented McBride with a scenario that I’ve heard several times from friends and on internet confessionals. Let’s say you’re a couple in your 30s or so, looking to buy a home. You devote your leisure time to Redfin, and Zillow pages have been flash-burned onto your corneas. You’ve put in several offers, promised sellers everything short of a shrine to their descendants, but you keep losing out. Do you recommit yourself to the Zillow chase, throw in the offspring shrine, and raise your max price in the expectation that things will only get crazier with time? Or do you wait?

“It’s so hard to say without knowing the city, but generally, if you’re in a market where you consistently have to spend significantly above listing, I wouldn’t buy right now,” McBride said. “I think when you put everything together, the odds are that things get more normal in a year.”

I moved on to discuss another aspect of inventory accounting. But McBride interrupted me. “I want to add something else for those couples,” he said. “Relationships are more important than a house.”


 

Mandelon

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I built and sold a spec house for $540,000 a year and a half ago. Thought I did great. I was happy to get it sold before the election. Got more then I expected. Since then it has gone up $100,000. LOL Even when I win, I still lose. 🤪
 

Xring01

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I built and sold a spec house for $540,000 a year and a half ago. Thought I did great. I was happy to get it sold before the election. Got more then I expected. Since then it has gone up $100,000. LOL Even when I win, I still lose. 🤪
I disagree, you didnt lose at all, You planned a project, completed the project, appears to have made the profit you hoped you would get. Thats a win in my book.

Because I dont have a crystal ball, I doubt you have one either. We only work with the best data available. But that data changes faster than it can be compiled.

Your doing the best you can, and You made a profit… Well done. Now pat your self on the back.
 

25Elmn8r

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The market is crazy here in N. Idaho. There is such demand for homes and the supply is so low people are willing to over pay to get into a home. I've been on the hunt for 2 years to find the right place with no luck. We decided to just take a leap and list our home to take advantage of this craziness, we listed last month for $699k and got well above, escrow closes the 24th of this month. This is on a house we bought 5 years ago for $340k! Not a bad investment.

We stumbled across our dream property that we will eventually build on when this lumber craziness settles down. So full time RV here we come!
 

28Eliminator

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It's gone completely crazy.

I'm the GS for a big developer. Over the last 10 years we've had approx 20 - 30 homes on our tracking sheet at any given moment. We currently have 63 homes under contract. 26 under construction now, with another 37 (signed) with start dates out to November of 2022.

Our homes start at 1.2 Mil, and go up to as much as 3.5. All but a couple homes are cash buyers.

Now if we could just find trades and materials to build them....
 

Blackmagic94

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The Blackstone Group and their mass buying then renting is a big part of the problem.

I’ve heard a bit about this but not enough. What is the low down. Who are they and who owns them. Sounds like some 1984 shit
 

hallett21

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I’ve heard a bit about this but not enough. What is the low down. Who are they and who owns them. Sounds like some 1984 shit
Hedge fund buying everything they can. I don’t know their specific market (location) but they’re hitting neighborhoods and driving the price up overnight.




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Blackmagic94

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Charlie Kirk talked about them in great extent today and how they’re destroying everyone’s possibility of owning a home.


Do they have enough money to keep doing that for forever?
 

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Charlie Kirk talked about them in great extent today and how they’re destroying everyone’s possibility of owning a home.
Market manipulation only works if you can get out BEFORE you run out of money or the markets catches up to you.
 

Tom Slick

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I looked at 10 acres up the road 2 years ago and laughed at the guy when he told me he was asking 400K. He has his last 10 acres for sale today at $1,250,000. If only I had a crystal ball back then.

We paid $559K for our home exactly 3 years ago. Today I could list it for $1.1mill and have a bidding war. The house down the street from me sold for $150K over asking price. This market is beyond reason.

I'm trying to talk the wife into cashing out and moving East. Pay cash for something with our equity and never have a mortgage again. So far she's not budging.
 

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Do they have enough money to keep doing that for forever?
If Blackstone is They? Certainly not Forever but for a good while, Yes they do right now.
Blackstones Investors on the other hand is another story. Rest assured that SOME of the Investors will lose Bigly. Ask Trump. He was pretty good at building Casinos with other peoples money and personally winning bigly. :D
 

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I looked at 10 acres up the road 2 years ago and laughed at the guy when he told me he was asking 400K. He has his last 10 acres for sale today at $1,250,000. If only I had a crystal ball back then.

We paid $559K for our home exactly 3 years ago. Today I could list it for $1.1mill and have a bidding war. The house down the street from me sold for $150K over asking price. This market is beyond reason.

I'm trying to talk the wife into cashing out and moving East. Pay cash for something with our equity and never have a mortgage again. So far she's not budging.
I hear ya. I'm in the same boat. ( Almost Literally )
I am considering the same thing right now too.
The population isn't getting any smaller and the planet isn't getting any bigger so considering supply will never outpace demand long term real estate will always increase over the long haul. You just have to determine how long your willing to wait. Only sure way to realize the gain is to downsize and re-diversify the extra gain into something else.
I am close to selling our place and splitting the equity into 3 separate buckets. 1-A smaller house in the states, 2-A property in Belize, 3-A liveaboard Powercat in the Caribbean . :D
Diversity is my plan.
 

Tom Slick

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I hear ya. I'm in the same boat. ( Almost Literally )
I am considering the same thing right now too.
The population isn't getting any smaller and the planet isn't getting any bigger so considering supply will never outpace demand long term real estate will always increase over the long haul. You just have to determine how long your willing to wait. Only sure way to realize the gain is to downsize and re-diversify the extra gain into something else.
I am close to selling our place and splitting the equity into 3 separate buckets. 1-A smaller house in the states, 2-A property in Belize, 3-A liveaboard Powercat in the Caribbean . :D
Diversity is my plan.
Solid plan...I likey! :)
 

hallett21

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Do they have enough money to keep doing that for forever?
Obviously they have billions as a hedge fund. But I think the bigger issue is that if you or I started accumulating rentals we could pull cash out of them as we filled them with tenants.

Black stone is doing the same thing while instantly adding equity to previous homes as they buy more.

There’s no way they are keeping 20-50% equity in them.


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rivrrts429

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I hear ya. I'm in the same boat. ( Almost Literally )
I am considering the same thing right now too.
The population isn't getting any smaller and the planet isn't getting any bigger so considering supply will never outpace demand long term real estate will always increase over the long haul. You just have to determine how long your willing to wait. Only sure way to realize the gain is to downsize and re-diversify the extra gain into something else.
I am close to selling our place and splitting the equity into 3 separate buckets. 1-A smaller house in the states, 2-A property in Belize, 3-A liveaboard Powercat in the Caribbean . :D
Diversity is my plan.
I remember talking about Belize at your house and I haven’t forgotten ever since. I hired a rep a year ago who came back to the states after selling property in Belize for the last ten years. Between you and him I’m jonesing to make a move of some sort there.
 

Tank

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I said this on another thread but a little over a year ago there was a house down the street from us beach front my wife totally wanted. Talked to my tax / finance guy and ran numbers and basically to make it work we’d be eating Mac and cheese and no more trips. Plus taxes go up etc. buddy was the listing agent and was gonna get us in. But it wouldve been tight money wise so we passed. It’s valued at 1 million more now. Went up 1 million in value in roughly a year! FML! 🤦‍♂️😂😂

oh well. Whatcha gonna do? 🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️
 

Looking Glass

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I said this on another thread but a little over a year ago there was a house down the street from us beach front my wife totally wanted. Talked to my tax / finance guy and ran numbers and basically to make it work we’d be eating Mac and cheese and no more trips. Plus taxes go up etc. buddy was the listing agent and was gonna get us in. But it wouldve been tight money wise so we passed. It’s valued at 1 million more now. Went up 1 million in value in roughly a year! FML! 🤦‍♂️😂😂

oh well. Whatcha gonna do? 🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️

Would it be better to wish you Did OR Wish you Didn't.;)
 

LargeOrangeFont

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It's gone completely crazy.

I'm the GS for a big developer. Over the last 10 years we've had approx 20 - 30 homes on our tracking sheet at any given moment. We currently have 63 homes under contract. 26 under construction now, with another 37 (signed) with start dates out to November of 2022.

Our homes start at 1.2 Mil, and go up to as much as 3.5. All but a couple homes are cash buyers.

Now if we could just find trades and materials to build them....
But those cash buyers will be foreclosed on... 🙄
 

Singleton

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I said this on another thread but a little over a year ago there was a house down the street from us beach front my wife totally wanted. Talked to my tax / finance guy and ran numbers and basically to make it work we’d be eating Mac and cheese and no more trips. Plus taxes go up etc. buddy was the listing agent and was gonna get us in. But it wouldve been tight money wise so we passed. It’s valued at 1 million more now. Went up 1 million in value in roughly a year! FML! 🤦‍♂️😂😂

oh well. Whatcha gonna do? 🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️
even if you jumped, you would not be selling it today.
I have to tell myself, just need the house to be worth more when I am ready to sell, then what my total purchase price (total of mortgage plus interest).
 

LargeOrangeFont

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The Blackstone Group and their mass buying then renting is a big part of the problem.

It’s not a problem. You have the largest subset of the population that is coming of age that can’t even stand to own a cellphone for more than 24 months.

Few millennials want to own anything, it gives them anxiety to be “tied down”.

Give ‘me want....a monthly payment.
 

Singleton

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It’s not a problem. You have the largest subset of the population that is coming of age that can’t even stand to own a cellphone for more than 24 months.

Few millennials want to own anything, it gives them anxiety to be “tied down”.

Give ‘me want....a monthly payment.
when a cell phone cost on average 1k, we have issues.
people need to learn a smart phone is not a cell phone
 

hallett21

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It’s not a problem. You have the largest subset of the population that is coming of age that can’t even stand to own a cellphone for more than 24 months.

Few millennials want to own anything, it gives them anxiety to be “tied down”.

Give ‘me want....a monthly payment.
I want to disagree with you but it’s that bad. My wife and I (29/30) have so many friends who are 1000% content renting for a payment.

Or there are a few that “want to own” but still want to fly to Bali 3x a year. Now we like to travel However we also spent 6 months moving back in with the in laws and 2 years remodeling our house.

Very few in our generation want to do that. And now it’s exponentially harder to buy a home


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Xtrmwakeboarder

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I want to disagree with you but it’s that bad. My wife and I (29/30) have so many friends who are 1000% content renting for a payment.

Or there are a few that “want to own” but still want to fly to Bali 3x a year. Now we like to travel However we also spent 6 months moving back in with the in laws and 2 years remodeling our house.

Very few in our generation want to do that. And now it’s exponentially harder to buy a home


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What’s the matter with renting and spending your money on something you like? Living in your mom’s basement is one thing, but seeing the world rather than being house poor doesn’t seem too bad when a dumpster fire in OC is $700k.
 

Xtrmwakeboarder

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The only real winners in this crazyness are the realtors, I hope they socking some away for the rainy days to come!
100%. No need to negotiate on the buyers side. It’s pretty much “open your wallet as wide as possible and hope you’ve got enough to beat out the other 9 offers.”
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I want to disagree with you but it’s that bad. My wife and I (29/30) have so many friends who are 1000% content renting for a payment.

Or there are a few that “want to own” but still want to fly to Bali 3x a year. Now we like to travel However we also spent 6 months moving back in with the in laws and 2 years remodeling our house.

Very few in our generation want to do that. And now it’s exponentially harder to buy a home


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I’m a geriatric millennial, and most don’t have the desire to own. The prospect of having to unexpectedly pay $250 to fix a clogged toilet is terrifying.

I have 0 problems with people that desire to rent. I just don’t want to hear the complaints that they have no money and no nest egg in 40 years when they want to retire and can’t because the system has been so “unfair” to them their entire lives.

If you are renting with a plan for the future, good on you.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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What’s the matter with renting and spending your money on something you like? Living in your mom’s basement is one thing, but seeing the world rather than being house poor doesn’t seem too bad when a dumpster fire in OC is $700k.
Nothing wrong at all.. just don’t bitch in 40 years if/when you can’t retire because of your “crippling” student debt, “unaffordable” rent, and you have only 20k in the bank to retire on from “seeing the world” every year for 30 years.

But hey, that new car and new phone every 18 months was bad ass, amirite??? 😉
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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when a cell phone cost on average 1k, we have issues.
people need to learn a smart phone is not a cell phone
No. When people are willing to sign up for installment monthly payments for $1k phones in perpetuity, we have problems. The phone is not the problem, bending a knee to the culture that says you must have a $1k phone every 2 years and a new car every 3 years when you can’t afford either but sign up for the lease payment anyway is the problem.
 
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Singleton

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No. When people are willing to sign up for installment monthly payments for $1k phones in perpetuity, we have problems. The phone is not the problem, bending a knee to the culture that says you must have a $1k phone every 2 years and a new car every 3 years when you can’t afford either but sign up for the lease payment anyway is the problem.
very true.
so glad I was raised differently and have installed those same thoughts in my kids.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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very true.
so glad I was raised differently and have installed those same thoughts in my kids.
Agreed. I have no issue with the concept itself, as long as you are taking care of business on the back end.

When we hit retirement age, I keep telling my wife there are gonna be tons of people either pleading poverty, or will have to work until they die. I bet there will be a huge amount that have carried student loan debt all the way to retirement.
 

Xtrmwakeboarder

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As is said, nothing.. just don’t bitch in 40 years if/when you can’t retire because of your “crippling” student debt, “unaffordable” rent, any you have only 20k in the bank to retire on from “seeing the world” every year for 30 years.

But hey, that new car and new phone every 18 months was bad ass, amirite??? 😉
Different strokes. I’m not in that position, but I understand it. It’s a balance between sacrificing everything now for the hope that you live long enough to retire comfortably and buying that car and cell phone every 18 months. I’d rather travel than be house poor, but lucky for me, I make enough to do both.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Different strokes. I’m not in that position, but I understand it. It’s a balance between sacrificing everything now for the hope that you live long enough to retire comfortably and buying that car and cell phone every 18 months. I’d rather travel than be house poor, but lucky for me, I make enough to do both.
I’m all for personal choice and long as one accepts the personal consequences.
 

rmarion

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So wild..

The last house for sale in our track sold for $604k, received full asking price??? ( who set the asking price???? Don't know..but I can sure guess...)

The realtor purchased the house..

Then two weeks later, listed this same house for sale at $695k....

Nothing like SCREWING YOUR Client...
 

Singleton

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I was asked tonight by someone knocking on my door at 730pm, if I would sell for 1.2.
Told them, make it 1.6 cash, buyer pays all fees and it yours July 1.
Hoping they don’t come back tomorrow. Have no idea where we would move.
 

rickdarling

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We closed on a house in Havasu a couple of months ago with the thought of retiring in it 4 years from now. I really thought we paid too much for it but now, I’m thinking we may have done okay.

The plan was/is to live in our So. Cal. house (at lease during the work week) until then. That said, if we see another 10% increase (it’s gone up an amazing amount during the last 12 months), we’re going to sell it, bank the money, and rent until we retire. Up to $500,000 is tax free and that is just too good to pass up. We may not see a period like this (for some time) should the market change.

No one really knows where the market is going however, risking something at this point (based on what we are seeing) seems like a reasonable proposition..
 

CALEXODUS

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Havasu median sell price May-2021. $445000.....
May-2020 $328000.....

More than 30% in a year. I thought we overpaid in June 2020....
 

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I remember talking about Belize at your house and I haven’t forgotten ever since. I hired a rep a year ago who came back to the states after selling property in Belize for the last ten years. Between you and him I’m jonesing to make a move of some sort there.
Ambergris Caye or Placencia baby. Either one works but we are leaning towards Placencia.
 

Xring01

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@rmarion
Realtors…. Exactly, they are bound by a code of ethics…

Yet its never been enforced. Mortgage brokers, yeah I have ratted there ass’s out in another thread..

which is why the business models will change.

carmax, carvana, etc etc etc
quicken loans became Rocket mortage… and lots of competition
docusign
real estate brokers,


Due to the fact these industries didnt self regulate, the consumer is regulating them out of business.
There is no price negotiation at Tesla Or Carmax, Carvana, but chevy, ford, toyota?. Buyer beware.

Real Estate, Mortgage industry, things will change dramatically in a few years. Because the added value they provide, isnt worth the commission they expect. They cannot fight technology, without ethics.

jJust like taxi drivers got replaced by uber and lift. Truck drivers will be devastated in 10 years.
 
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BHC Vic

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I want to disagree with you but it’s that bad. My wife and I (29/30) have so many friends who are 1000% content renting for a payment.

Or there are a few that “want to own” but still want to fly to Bali 3x a year. Now we like to travel However we also spent 6 months moving back in with the in laws and 2 years remodeling our house.

Very few in our generation want to do that. And now it’s exponentially harder to buy a home


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I will disagree. I see hundreds of apprentices a week. We just started some new surveys to do a study. Questions are
Where do you see yourself in 5 years?
What role does the union play in that?
What would you tell your first period self today?
How many months rent do you have saved?
What period apprentice are you?
I was shocked to see most answers say start a family and own a house. I’d tell my first period self to save. You really don’t need that.
 

BHC Vic

cobra performance boats
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Anyways... who wants to be my Nextdoor neighbor? They are going through a pretty nasty divorce and the house was listed Tuesday. I really want to buy it but I don’t want to over extend myself. Plus my house is bigger, and i paid 100k+ less. But not a bad deal in today’s market. It’s literally my next door neighbor. You can see my shop in a lot of the pictures. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2533-Bronco-Ln-Norco-CA-92860/17790125_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
 
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