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Pricing/inflation, how is this not a bigger story?

wash11

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I've been on a pretty frugal journey the last few years which has put me out of touch on current pricing. I've got some upgrades and replacements to do in 2021 and have been putting a loose plan together.

$70,000 3/4 ton pickups, $11.00 2x4's, 5 year old boats selling for more than they cost new, $50,000 side by sides, 400k+ 1400sq ft homes in Havasu, $1.00 per round ammo- the list goes on and on. I hear people keep repeating, "supply vs. demand" and I get it but my buying power seems to be 1/2 what it was 2 or 3 years ago. The fuck happened? And, will it ever turn around or should I expect this to be the new normal?
 

Looking Glass

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I've been on a pretty frugal journey the last few years which has put me out of touch on current pricing. I've got some upgrades and replacements to do in 2021 and have been putting a loose plan together.

$70,000 3/4 ton pickups, $11.00 2x4's, 5 year old boats selling for more than they cost new, $50,000 side by sides, 400k+ 1400sq ft homes in Havasu, $1.00 per round ammo- the list goes on and on. I hear people keep repeating, "supply vs. demand" and I get it but my buying power seems to be 1/2 what it was 2 or 3 years ago. The fuck happened? And, will it ever turn around or should I expect this to be the new normal?

I was @ Home Depot and talking to one of the guys back in Lumbar, he thought when the "Perfect Storm" subsides everything will drop back to Normal 🤣 I am afraid it won't, it is like Temp. Taxes to pay for this or that. They Never back offa Tax. The real Sad thing is If the Market will bear it, Stick it to them.

Ican only imagine there are some small contractors that got caught in a 30%lumber increase that was Not covered in a Contract. IMO it could break them.?
 

BHC Vic

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Lots of boomers retiring and going to be on a fixed income. Medical for retirees is going to hurt. The number one reason union carpenters are kicking retirement down the road, is they can’t afford medical once retired. It’s going to be interesting
 

monkeyswrench

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Things are as wonky as possible...More so really. Pickups have been insane since the start of the diesel wars I think. Up and up since the early 2000's. Lumber has a few things going on. Building boom with interest being low, and people leaving cities, then add in the fires in the northwest slowing down the industry...both transport and logging.
The SxS prices I don't understand...but I never understood 100k rails either. 1$ per round is a little unnerving...hoarding? Dunno, happy to be where I am...
 

Looking Glass

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Things are as wonky as possible...More so really. Pickups have been insane since the start of the diesel wars I think. Up and up since the early 2000's. Lumber has a few things going on. Building boom with interest being low, and people leaving cities, then add in the fires in the northwest slowing down the industry...both transport and logging.
The SxS prices I don't understand...but I never understood 100k rails either. 1$ per round is a little unnerving...hoarding? Dunno, happy to be where I am...

IMO the big reason is people are willing to Pay these prices, either have the money OR can get the Credit then worry down the road. How are these Companies going to Roll Back prices? They Can't everything is Connected in one way or another. Wages?
 

boatpi

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Remember many people have made big $$ over the past 3 years in real estate, stock market, and 401K money. So unlike in 2010, most of this is real money. Just this year if you wanted to get killed in short term taxes, countless stocks have gone up 3-6 times. Just look at Tesla, or CARS (Avis Budget), huge gains. Wait until next May-July when many people can sell these stocks after holding for 1 year to avois short term taxes, a huge amount of cash can hit the market. Some may move it to real estate, or just buy toys, etc.

As to imports, and this is our business, the cost of shipping is killing everyone. A 40' container from any part if Asia was $2,600 in April, just jumped to $7,000! It is insanity, add to that the ships are sitting off shore at LA, stacked 30 deep waiting for dock space to unload.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Housing is supply and demand, it is what it is.
If you want to spend $70k on a truck, that’s on you, you can buy a truck with the same capabilities as your old truck for probably around $50k.
You don’t have to buy a $50k side by side, you can buy a really good one for under $20k.
New boats have doubled in price in the last 10 years and that of course makes used boats worth more.

Lumber, ammo, fuel, etc. are all commodity items and their price fluctuates. None of that stuff will get cheaper over time but will be subject to price changes based on supply and demand.
 

Done-it-again

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I've been on a pretty frugal journey the last few years which has put me out of touch on current pricing. I've got some upgrades and replacements to do in 2021 and have been putting a loose plan together.

$70,000 3/4 ton pickups, $11.00 2x4's, 5 year old boats selling for more than they cost new, $50,000 side by sides, 400k+ 1400sq ft homes in Havasu, $1.00 per round ammo- the list goes on and on. I hear people keep repeating, "supply vs. demand" and I get it but my buying power seems to be 1/2 what it was 2 or 3 years ago. The fuck happened? And, will it ever turn around or should I expect this to be the new normal?
It’s been talked about weekly. You’ve been busy in your bubble.

its pretty much the reason I sold the boat. Made good money on it.
 
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BHC Vic

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Housing is supply and demand, it is what it is.
If you want to spend $70k on a truck, that’s on you, you can buy a truck with the same capabilities as your old truck for probably around $50k.
You don’t have to buy a $50k side by side, you can buy a really good one for under $20k.
New boats have doubled in price in the last 10 years and that of course makes used boats worth more.

Lumber, ammo, fuel, etc. are all commodity items and their price fluctuates. None of that stuff will get cheaper over time but will be subject to price changes based on supply and demand.
kicking around the idea of listing for 65k 😜
 

Bobby V

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Lots of boomers retiring and going to be on a fixed income. Medical for retirees is going to hurt. The number one reason union carpenters are kicking retirement down the road, is they can’t afford medical once retired. It’s going to be interesting
That why we started a fund for the retirees. About 70% of the medical is paid by the guys still working until the retiree turns. 65 and goes on Medicare, I think its 10 cents a hour.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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kicking around the idea of listing for 65k 😜
Only took a pandemic to cause a run on boats to get to your price 😝 You might get close to it at the beginning of next season :)
 

DRYHEAT

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I've been on a pretty frugal journey the last few years which has put me out of touch on current pricing. I've got some upgrades and replacements to do in 2021 and have been putting a loose plan together.

$70,000 3/4 ton pickups, $11.00 2x4's, 5 year old boats selling for more than they cost new, $50,000 side by sides, 400k+ 1400sq ft homes in Havasu, $1.00 per round ammo- the list goes on and on. I hear people keep repeating, "supply vs. demand" and I get it but my buying power seems to be 1/2 what it was 2 or 3 years ago. The fuck happened? And, will it ever turn around or should I expect this to be the new normal?
I am still in disbelief from when boats went over $2000 per foot.🙄

Yeah I know I’m a little behind the times.🤓
 

Looking Glass

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Just like Gas in Havasu 🤔 Talking to a Transport Driver a month ago. He laughed when he said it does not cost 70 Cents a Gallon to drive off I40.:oops:
 

Done-it-again

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Only took a pandemic to cause a run on boats to get to your price 😝 You might get close to it at the beginning of next season :)
if grandpa Joe doesn’t freak people out by then causing a correction.
It might be early for that to happen, but you will see one during his 4yr term.
 

BHC Vic

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I am still in disbelief from when boats went over $2000 per foot.🙄

Yeah I know I’m a little behind the times.🤓
My dream boat when I was a 10 year old kid was a hallett 240 with 525. Price tag to build new was about 80k. A bullet could be had a little cheaper. Niemans had a Hallett and the bacarros built a Howard. When we built our 23’ boat some 15-20 (damn I’m getting old) years later we paid a little more... didn’t get a hallett or a 525. I still want a ballet, 240 or 270. Scared to find out what it would cost to build new. I don’t think I could get my 230 under 100k Today If I walked into cobra right now.
 

DRYHEAT

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Lots of boomers retiring and going to be on a fixed income. Medical for retirees is going to hurt. The number one reason union carpenters are kicking retirement down the road, is they can’t afford medical once retired. It’s going to be interesting
There’s a whole lot of us in that boat, I would like to retire but I am afraid to without discounted insurance through my employer.
 

DRYHEAT

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My dream boat when I was a 10 year old kid was a hallett 240 with 525. Price tag to build new was about 80k. A bullet could be had a little cheaper. Niemans had a Hallett and the bacarros built a Howard. When we built our 23’ boat some 10 years later we paid a little more... didn’t get a hallett or a 525. I still want a ballet, 240 or 270. Scared to find out what it would cost to build new. I don’t think I could get my 230 under 100k Today If I walked into cobra right now.
Many moons ago I remember looking at a new Hallett Vector with a small block for under $20,000. 😂
 

Desert Whaler

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I was shoppping trucks for the past 2-years . . . couldn't get past the f'ing prices, for bells and whistles.
My neighbor had a killer 2006 Crew Cab Tundra Garage Queen he swore he'd never sell. He calls me one day and says it's for sale, he ordered a 25 Parker w/ twin 200 Yamaha's & needs a 3/4 ton . . . sold it to me for $15K with only 50K miles on it . . . score! I'll drive that fucker till at least 300K !
Fuck these current truck prices.
 

motormonkey

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As long as interest rates are low and going lower, fed printing money like crazy, pro longed covid closers. You get inflation with stagflation soon. Supply and demand from cheap money. The simple explanation. Run the long game and be happy.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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if grandpa Joe doesn’t freak people out by then causing a correction.
It might be early for that to happen, but you will see one during his 4yr term.
Too soon for this season. But there is gonna be an economic boom for sure coming out the back side of pandemic. We are going to be doing this same shit for another year, maybe 18 months however. By spring you’ll hear the murmurs starting that Joe saved us. It’s gonna take a year or more to get everyone reprogrammed.

If the economy keeps getting propped up, we will just keep treading water.
 

BHC Vic

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Too soon for this season. But there is gonna be an economic boom for sure coming out the back side of pandemic. We are going to be doing this same shit for another year, maybe 18 months however. By spring you’ll hear the murmurs starting that Joe saved us. It’s gonna take a year or more to get everyone reprogrammed.

If the economy keeps getting propped up, we will just keep treading water.
So sell this upcoming season and buy the following. I’m willing to give it a shot
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Just like Gas in Havasu 🤔 Talking to a Transport Driver a month ago. He laughed when he said it does not cost 70 Cents a Gallon to drive off I40.:oops:
Gas in Havasu is expensive because of CA tourism.
 

Your ad here

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I've noticed stuff that is needed has gone up in price. Not to much but enough to notice. Stuff that is wanted has just gone crazy on pricing. I will admit I made some money during this covid thing and bought Cdog's boat.
 

Done-it-again

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Too soon for this season. But there is gonna be an economic boom for sure coming out the back side of pandemic. We are going to be doing this same shit for another year, maybe 18 months however. By spring you’ll hear the murmurs starting that Joe saved us. It’s gonna take a year or more to get everyone reprogrammed.

If the economy keeps getting propped up, we will just keep treading water.
will see what happens Jan 5th. That will determine how quickly things will happen.
 

zhandfull

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There is nothing about the economy that makes much sense right now. Government and banking interference in how the economy works is going to have consequences in the not so distant future. I think we are just seeing the tip of the inflation bubble. There are a lot of people out swimming naked and at some point they will all be exposed before things change.
 

Racey

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I've been on a pretty frugal journey the last few years which has put me out of touch on current pricing. I've got some upgrades and replacements to do in 2021 and have been putting a loose plan together.

$70,000 3/4 ton pickups, $11.00 2x4's, 5 year old boats selling for more than they cost new, $50,000 side by sides, 400k+ 1400sq ft homes in Havasu, $1.00 per round ammo- the list goes on and on. I hear people keep repeating, "supply vs. demand" and I get it but my buying power seems to be 1/2 what it was 2 or 3 years ago. The fuck happened? And, will it ever turn around or should I expect this to be the new normal?
Trucks will never fall in price again, it's a direct result of factory long term financing and has been headed this way for a long time. They just keep adding months to normal loan terms, that way the monthly payment remains relatively similar to what someone can "afford". The price follows.

RE prices in Havasu, Vegas, probably Phoenix too, all being driven hard by the exodus from So Cal. The vastness of the area from Santa Clarita to San Diego can have a relatively strong effect on these relatively smaller markets. This is partly driving the lumber costs from the demand side here.

As for toys, SxS prices have been getting higher and higher for years as people put more and more money into aftermarket and the factories then step up "stock", add 1 year of lock downs with nothing to do, and the neighbor that used to take his family to Sandals for vacation is now looking at the guy with the 5th wheel and desert toys and jumping onboard looking for something to do.

Ammo, well that's an obvious one, that pretty much started when George Floyd OD'd on Fentanyl and they blamed it on the cops back in May, from there it just kept getting crazier and crazier leading up to the election. My mom's side of the family has been in the ammunition manufacturing business for decades, they had this same thing in 2008, 2009, etc Once the market was absolutely saturated with brass the prices start coming back down as the loading lines begin sitting idle.

If these moron governors continue to keep the economy strangled it will come crashing down sooner than later, you'll want to be holding green cash
 

bk2drvr

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The moratorium on evictions ends at the end of January. Some 40 million people are estimated to be behind on rent and will be evicted. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
 

zhandfull

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Lots of boomers retiring and going to be on a fixed income. Medical for retirees is going to hurt. The number one reason union carpenters are kicking retirement down the road, is they can’t afford medical once retired. It’s going to be interesting
That or they can’t afford medical and servicing their debt on the shit they don’t need like vacation homes, new vehicles and toys.

At one time people retired without a bunch of debt.

Not sure its the same anymore. Watched a guy retire that works with me. Took his two pensions and moved to Henderson NV. Bought a house with a pool and bigger mortgage than he had in California. Then traded the paid off truck for a vehicle with a payment.
 
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nameisbond

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Food costs here have risen over the last month. I buy hamburger for the dog in a tube (forget how many lbs). It was $9 for the tube last month. Now its $17. We can't sustain these rising costs, sooner then later it will come crashing down.
 

Icky

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Eventually we will all need the governments help with all this 🙄. Things like universal income, universal health care, and no small businesses will help the government control all the prices for us 🤔
 

Looking Glass

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Food costs here have risen over the last month. I buy hamburger for the dog in a tube (forget how many lbs). It was $9 for the tube last month. Now its $17. We can't sustain these rising costs, sooner then later it will come crashing down.

The "POOCH" is going to go on a Diet. 🤔
 

PlanB

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Gas in Havasu is expensive because of CA tourism.
Yep, the oil companies zone price. I owned three stations in SoCal and my price to purchase fuel depended on the zip code. The independents will price match to a point, but will stay below the branded stations. The oil companies squeeze all the profit out of fuel sales.
 

pronstar

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What I want to know is where the hell are you buying your 2x4’s? I’m paying $2.59.
I wanna shop where you do...they’re still pricey near me, this is the he cheapest I’ve found.

IMG_5907.PNG



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 

HNL2LHC

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Food costs here have risen over the last month. I buy hamburger for the dog in a tube (forget how many lbs). It was $9 for the tube last month. Now its $17. We can't sustain these rising costs, sooner then later it will come crashing down.
Just wait the next move is to keep the price the same and just make the weight less.
 

DILLIGAF

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Food costs here have risen over the last month. I buy hamburger for the dog in a tube (forget how many lbs). It was $9 for the tube last month. Now its $17. We can't sustain these rising costs, sooner then later it will come crashing down.
you can get 3lb ground turkey at walmart for about 7$. I buy it for the pups from time to time to mix in their dry food. They like it.
 

DILLIGAF

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This is why I sold everything, paid cash for a 5th wheel and dually and retired. My company i keep on life support due to residual monies received which pay for healthcare and my cell service.

my real journeys begin in the springtime concerning traveling all over the USA.

of course it helps when you only have to support yourself as well as the pups.

its gonna get a lot worse before it gets better. There are so many people suffering and on the brink of totally being destroyed. Rough water ahead peeps.

prepare the best you can as prices will continue upwards
 

sintax

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I've been on a pretty frugal journey the last few years which has put me out of touch on current pricing. I've got some upgrades and replacements to do in 2021 and have been putting a loose plan together.

$70,000 3/4 ton pickups, $11.00 2x4's, 5 year old boats selling for more than they cost new, $50,000 side by sides, 400k+ 1400sq ft homes in Havasu, $1.00 per round ammo- the list goes on and on. I hear people keep repeating, "supply vs. demand" and I get it but my buying power seems to be 1/2 what it was 2 or 3 years ago. The fuck happened? And, will it ever turn around or should I expect this to be the new normal?

Just try buying shit no one wants, you can get some great deals out there!

Used TV's, Xbox 360 / PS4's, 4 cylinder bayliners, Fords
 

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Gas is expensive here because they know nobody who lives here is going to drive 50 miles to buy it for $.20 cheaper.🤓
It didn’t used to be so expensive. 3 years ago it was $.90 - $1 cheaper than CA.
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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The moratorium on evictions ends at the end of January. Some 40 million people are estimated to be behind on rent and will be evicted. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
It will get extended, probably after Biden takes office so he can take credit. “Dark Winter” remember?
 

2Driver

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The moratorium on evictions ends at the end of January. Some 40 million people are estimated to be behind on rent and will be evicted. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
The incoming administration will never let that happen. They will wait until the last minute and pass something.

The the real shit show will be when landlords start to walk on their notes due to being without revenue for over a year, not to mention all the other shuttered business calling it quits. Its a great time to raise taxes on American businesses and cap gains. I always say leave the party before the cops show up.
 
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