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RDP Braintrust. What Would You Do? Sell, Buy, Rent? 2021 prediction?

pkrrvr619

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My wife and I are considering selling our home in El Cajon and moving to Canyon Lake CA as it seems to fit our lifestyle a bit more than east county san diego these days.

that being said, we have a realtor come over and he would list our home for enough to walk away with a huge downpayment on a home, pay off some car notes, and possibly my wife's bit of student loan.

Canyon lake would be closer to my commute in Irvine and up the 15 corridor for site visits etc so that is another plus besides owning a home on the water.

So there lies the question, should we sell then rent to see what the market will do or just get back into buying another home (not a whole lot of choices unfortunately at this time).

Anyone have any insight on what 2021 may look like? I have to believe Covid is going to have an impact when the stimulus runs out and eviction moratoriums come up. Maybe not for a year or so, but 2022 i imagine is going to see a wave of foreclosures. May not impact socal with the lack of inventory though.....

What say ye?
 

OldSchoolBoats

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Housing inventory is at a 3 year low and the influx of people to Riverside County from San Diego and Orange County, keeps growing everyday. I am sure the doom and gloom people will be here any second, predicting a fall like 2008 is coming any minute. Fact is, it will NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN!!

Buy the house, watch it appreciate and then in a few years when we do have a slight correction, you will back to todays levels or slightly better.

My office is in Temecula. If you need help with the purchase loan, we would be happy to help. :)
 

Gonefishin5555

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My advice would be to not try to time the market. Almost no one who does this comes out ahead. If you sell now you should buy immediately. I've seen many who sell and leave the state who return and can't buy back in at a later date. Too many variables can happen and screw up the best plans.
 

riverroyal

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if its Canyon lake you should rent. Thats a specific lifestyle area and if you buy you better be prepared to stay a long time
 

Gelcoater

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My wife and I are considering selling our home in El Cajon and moving to Canyon Lake CA as it seems to fit our lifestyle a bit more than east county san diego these days.

that being said, we have a realtor come over and he would list our home for enough to walk away with a huge downpayment on a home, pay off some car notes, and possibly my wife's bit of student loan.

Canyon lake would be closer to my commute in Irvine and up the 15 corridor for site visits etc so that is another plus besides owning a home on the water.

So there lies the question, should we sell then rent to see what the market will do or just get back into buying another home (not a whole lot of choices unfortunately at this time).

Anyone have any insight on what 2021 may look like? I have to believe Covid is going to have an impact when the stimulus runs out and eviction moratoriums come up. Maybe not for a year or so, but 2022 i imagine is going to see a wave of foreclosures. May not impact socal with the lack of inventory though.....

What say ye?
While I’m not sure what your current commute path is, have you seen what I-15 looks like between Canyon Lake and Irvine?
Not to mention the 91 to the toll road?

Living there might not save you as much time as you might think??
Canyon Lake is a pretty cool spot, if you can live within their rules. I’d imagine their HOA’s are pretty steep?
 

pkrrvr619

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While I’m not sure what your current commute path is, have you seen what I-15 looks like between Canyon Lake and Irvine?
Not to mention the 91 to the toll road?

Living there might not save you as much time as you might think??
Canyon Lake is a pretty cool spot, if you can live within their rules. I’d imagine their HOA’s are pretty steep?
If you take the toll roads i believe it is anywhere from 50-75 min. From east county it is 1.5 -2.5 hours depending on traffic.
 

ChiliPepperGarage

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I would not pay down student loan debt right now. I'd wait and see if it gets forgiven.

Have you done the commute to OC from Canyon Lake yet? I'd effeminately recommend doing it in the morning and again in afternoon so you can see how bad it is. I used to go from Wildomar to Santa Ana and it sucked, even after the 91 was widened.
 

OldSchoolBoats

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If you take the toll roads i believe it is anywhere from 50-75 min. From east county it is 1.5 -2.5 hours depending on traffic.
Might be even faster once they open up the new express lanes starting at Cajalco. Make sure you calculate in the toll expense each month. It isn't cheap to ride those new lanes during peak commute times.
 

Cole Trickle

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I don't see the market changing one way or another all that much over the next few years. Interest rates are at a all time low and inventory is screwed so it will keep the market rolling.

People keep talking about Covid and how it's effecting jobs. For the most part everyone I know that's a homeowner is kind of business as usual and not really being effected. There are obviously exceptions to the rule depending on what industry but most people are still doing just fine.

I just can't see interest rates going up a ton they know that alone would kill the housing market and economy.

Sell and buy if you find the house you want or sell and sit for a year while renting and if things start to get weird sit a little longer until things bottom out.

Personally I wouldn't be using any of that house money on anything other than buying a new house.
 

Cole Trickle

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If you take the toll roads i believe it is anywhere from 50-75 min. From east county it is 1.5 -2.5 hours depending on traffic.
No way....

I commute from Lincoln/91 (greenriver) to Irvine every day using the toll roads and it takes me probably 45 minutes on average. When there are accidents you can double that.

From my house to canyon lake I bet would be another hour the 15 is screwed and way worse than the 91.

Taking the toll all the way to calico will probably save you 20-30 minutes but will cost a fortune.
 

Gelcoater

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If you take the toll roads i believe it is anywhere from 50-75 min. From east county it is 1.5 -2.5 hours depending on traffic.
I suppose it may vary??
I’ve spent 45 minutes on the 91 between McKinley and Maple,which is only like a 7 mile stretch? so🤷‍♂️

I live off Van Buren and the 91, I don’t think someone could pay me enough to deal with a daily commute to OC, especially if they expect me to work once I arrived😂

When I went to Santa Ana to do a boat a couple years ago and twisted my ankle I was in that fwy close to 2 hours getting home, with my purple foot up by my driver side mirror the whole way. Talk about frustrating.
 

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Really check out Canyon Lake. They have some weird rules. You can have rv's and boats in your driveway but are forbidden to ride a motorcycle in the community. If you have a crack in your driveway they harass you until you fix it.
 

pkrrvr619

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I suppose it may vary??
I’ve spent 45 minutes on the 91 between McKinley and Maple,which is only like a 7 mile stretch? so🤷‍♂️

I live off Van Buren and the 91, I don’t think someone could pay me enough to deal with a daily commute to OC, especially if they expect me to work once I arrived😂

When I went to Santa Ana to do a boat a couple years ago and twisted my ankle I was in that fwy close to 2 hours getting home, with my purple foot up by my driver side mirror the whole way. Talk about frustrating.
Good to know.
i was using google maps and maybe their traffic times are not pre covid. it wouldn't be a daily commute. I probably go to irvine twice a week then other places like orange, anaheim, san bernadine, temecula, etc.
 

pkrrvr619

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No way....

I commute from Lincoln/91 (greenriver) to Irvine every day using the toll roads and it takes me probably 45 minutes on average. When there are accidents you can double that.

From my house to canyon lake I bet would be another hour the 15 is screwed and way worse than the 91.

Taking the toll all the way to calico will probably save you 20-30 minutes but will cost a fortune.
so what would you think the entire commute would be canyon lake to irvine then?
 

Boat 405

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Housing inventory is at a 3 year low and the influx of people to Riverside County from San Diego and Orange County, keeps growing everyday. I am sure the doom and gloom people will be here any second, predicting a fall like 2008 is coming any minute. Fact is, it will NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN!!

Buy the house, watch it appreciate and then in a few years when we do have a slight correction, you will back to todays levels or slightly better.

My office is in Temecula. If you need help with the purchase loan, we would be happy to help. :)

Hmm I’ve seen this movie before...
 

Cole Trickle

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so what would you think the entire commute would be canyon lake to irvine then?
Honestly I would say 1.5 hours best case scenario on an average day using the toll road from the 91 to irvine. You might be able to shave some time with the 91/15 fast track.

I live 5 miles up greenriver from the 91 at foothill/Lincoln. Real world commute for me with standard traffic getting on at Greenriver and exiting Walnut in Irvine is about 45 minutes. It's not a bad ride I'm good with it. Thursdays and Fridays are the worst especially coming home.

I like Canyon lake quite a bit and would have loved to move there. Unfortunately there is no way I could double my commute and stay sane.

Just checked waze and it's right at 60 miles from my office to canyon lake. My cars average mph is right around 28/30 mph.

I think you are looking at 1.5- 2 hours.
 
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Gelcoater

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so what would you think the entire commute would be canyon lake to irvine then?
Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
A good pal of mine lives off El Cerito and I-15 and works in OC.
Some days he’s 45 minutes early. Others he’s 20 late...
Some days are better than others🤷‍♂️
 

pkrrvr619

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Personally I wouldn't be using any of that house money on anything other than buying a new house.
Yeah I am on the fence about that too. With interests rates so low, you make a good point. The flip side is we would still have over 20% down even if we did use a bit.
 

pkrrvr619

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Honestly I would say 1.5 hours best case scenario on an average day using the toll road from the 91 to irvine. You might be able to shave some time with the 91/15 fast track.

I live 5 miles up greenriver from the 91 at foothill/Lincoln. Real world commute for me with standard traffic getting on at Greenriver and exiting Walnut in Irvine is about 45 minutes. It's not a bad ride I'm good with it. Thursdays and Fridays are the worst especially coming home.

I like Canyon lake quite a bit and would have loved to move there. Unfortunately there is no way I could double my commute and stay sane.

Just checked waze and it's right at 60 miles from my office to canyon lake. My cars average mph is right around 28/30 mph.

I think you are looking at 1.5- 2 hours.
I feel you. My commute now to irvine is 1.5 hours on a good day and 2.5 on a bad so anything is better than that which is why I am looking at canyon lake.
 

OldSchoolBoats

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Hmm I’ve seen this movie before...
The strength in housing this time around is on the heels of a much different animal. I will debate anybody, anytime, on the fundamental differences between this market and last.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Cole Trickle

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Yeah I am on the fence about that too. With interests rates so low, you make a good point. The flip side is we would still have over 20% down even if we did use a bit.
Sooner you get that house paid off the sooner you will have 3K a month to invest in other properties or live on.

How long have you lived at your current home? At the least I would try and always parlay up with the same time frame as that original mortgage. If you have lived there 8 years try and go with a 20 year.

I find it crazy and sad when I see my 65 year old clients refi there homes into 30 year loans and when I look at there info and they bought the home in 1994.
 

jeteater1

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We have friends that used to live at lake Elsinore, she would take the Ortega hwy to work everyday, 6 to 7 times a month she would be late because of car crashes. So if you go that way thatthat into consideration.
 

MK1MOD0

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I’m doing everything to have no bills just household stuff and have 50-60k stuffed I’m not sure on next 4 years 🤬
Smart man. If Uncle Jo does get in, It will be a very tumultuous winter and spring. He is promising shutting down the entire country for up to eight weeks. If that happens....... things will not end well. A wise man will have his cash available , and his powder dry....... purchasing a home today would be well out of this old boys comfort level.
 

LuauLounge

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Sooner you get that house paid off the sooner you will have 3K a month to invest in other properties or live on.

How long have you lived at your current home? At the least I would try and always parlay up with the same time frame as that original mortgage. If you have lived there 8 years try and go with a 20 year.

I find it crazy and sad when I see my 65 year old clients refi there homes into 30 year loans and when I look at there info and they bought the home in 1994.
Why not?
Most likely not going to be around to pay it off. With the low interest rates, you can buy dividend paying stocks that will cover the interest on the loan.
 

pkrrvr619

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Sooner you get that house paid off the sooner you will have 3K a month to invest in other properties or live on.

How long have you lived at your current home? At the least I would try and always parlay up with the same time frame as that original mortgage. If you have lived there 8 years try and go with a 20 year.

I find it crazy and sad when I see my 65 year old clients refi there homes into 30 year loans and when I look at there info and they bought the home in 1994.
We have lived here for 6 years, it was our first home buy and we are only 35 years old.
 

pkrrvr619

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The strength in housing this time around is on the heels of a much different animal. I will debate anybody, anytime, on the fundamental differences between this market and last.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
no debate from me, I would enjoy hearing your thoughts.
 

Dirtbag

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While I’m not sure what your current commute path is, have you seen what I-15 looks like between Canyon Lake and Irvine?
Not to mention the 91 to the toll road?

Living there might not save you as much time as you might think??
Canyon Lake is a pretty cool spot, if you can live within their rules. I’d imagine their HOA’s are pretty steep?
i was gonna say the same....possibly the worst commute in america....
 
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Cole Trickle

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Why not?
Most likely not going to be around to pay it off. With the low interest rates, you can buy dividend paying stocks that will cover the interest on the loan.
Most people aren't leveraging there home to make smart financial choices...lol

If you want to make a mortgage payment until the day you die go for it. :)
 
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MK1MOD0

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Or....... wait a couple months and see how things pan out😏
 

LowRiver2

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The strength in housing this time around is on the heels of a much different animal. I will debate anybody, anytime, on the fundamental differences between this market and last.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
Many more variables this time, no not a widespread crash but a redistribution of wealth and caps on the amount of people who can afford homes is changing.
Socialist ideals and high taxes, eventual rise in finance rates will slow the market eventually.
If a lot of the next generations can’t afford Homes, there will be an adjustment on home prices.
Havasu homes can’t stay at $600k for 1800 sq. Feet when a fraction of the future generations want a vacation home there , just one example.

Smart time to buy if you are staying in the property Mortgage wise at least ten years.
 

TITTIES AND BEER

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Smart man. If Uncle Jo does get in, It will be a very tumultuous winter and spring. He is promising shutting down the entire country for up to eight weeks. If that happens....... things will not end well. A wise man will have his cash available , and his powder dry....... purchasing a home today would be well out of this old boys comfort level.
I’ve been poor and I’m not rich but I like the shape wifey and I am 👍
 

sintax

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No way....

I commute from Lincoln/91 (greenriver) to Irvine every day using the toll roads and it takes me probably 45 minutes on average. When there are accidents you can double that.

From my house to canyon lake I bet would be another hour the 15 is screwed and way worse than the 91.

Taking the toll all the way to calico will probably save you 20-30 minutes but will cost a fortune.

I suppose it may vary??
I’ve spent 45 minutes on the 91 between McKinley and Maple,which is only like a 7 mile stretch? so🤷‍♂️

I live off Van Buren and the 91, I don’t think someone could pay me enough to deal with a daily commute to OC, especially if they expect me to work once I arrived😂

When I went to Santa Ana to do a boat a couple years ago and twisted my ankle I was in that fwy close to 2 hours getting home, with my purple foot up by my driver side mirror the whole way. Talk about frustrating.

These dudes are right, I did that commute from Riverside > Irvine for the last 20 years. On average I could get there via toll road (taking the 91 toll through corona and the 2 tolls over the hill) and it would take me 1-1.25 hrs in the morning, trying to get to work by 9am. On the way home I would only take the 241 tolls, and it would take me 1.5 hrs.

at least 25% of the time theres some asshole who causes a huge mess of the freeways and your commute is at least another 30min more. On holiday weekends you're looking at 2-2.5 hrs to get back to riverside. Please note all those times are for Riverside, add another 30-45 min to get to Canyon Lake.

The time sucked, but the price was even worse, i think i'd spend close to $400 a month in tolls.
 

pronstar

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3 hours per day in traffic.
That’s 15 hours per week.
60 hours per month.
720 hours per year.

It’s like working 1.5 extra weeks every month, only you aren’t getting paid for it and it’s actually costing you money.

Life is too short to waste that kinda time in your car everyday.

You’ll never get that time back.
And your family will miss you terribly.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

Brokeboatin221

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We still haven’t even seen the aftermath of covid on the economy and if sleezy joe Shuts us down, which he wants to, grab your ankles fellas! Look at the big picture every idiot is back to refinancing and buying stupid shit. Everyone is payment rich! Look around you on the freeways Friday it’s like 2007 all over big boats in summer and big toy haulers in the winter. Everyone says the economy is great but I call bullshit unless you own a Walmart, tp factory, Costco! Big business is cashing in while small businesses are getting their nuts in the ringer. Housing is beyond stupid everywhere again and beyond inflation. Something’s gotta give. Rates always drop look at history. I’d rather own something half price and refinance than buy high with a low rate. I sold my house and I’m waiting.......
 

boatpi

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I recall a bout 5 years ago friends asking if Vegas will go in the tank again, they were considering buying. They passed thinking it "might have another dip", IT AN'T GOING TO happen anytime soon. So here we are 5 years later and housing prices in Vegas are up 30% to 50%.
 

samsah33

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Treat this no different than any other investment you would make; e.g. don't put all your eggs into one basket and make sure your entire portfolio is diversified and not just in one asset such as a new house. Take a look at your interest rate on your wife's student loan, that's almost free money so don't be in a hurry to pay it off, consider that the price of liquidity. Additionally, there's a lot of talk about student loan forgiveness out there, you'll be kicking yourself in the head if you pay it off and then they get forgiven...
 

BHC Vic

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No way....

I commute from Lincoln/91 (greenriver) to Irvine every day using the toll roads and it takes me probably 45 minutes on average. When there are accidents you can double that.

From my house to canyon lake I bet would be another hour the 15 is screwed and way worse than the 91.

Taking the toll all the way to calico will probably save you 20-30 minutes but will cost a fortune.
I was thinking that time sounds like corona not canyon lake. I can spend up to like 80 bucks a week taking the fastrack from norco to Buena Park. Even leaving as early in the morning as I do, I still use the fastrack from green river. Next week I’ll be going from norco to San Diego everyday. I’m sure I’ll be loving it.
 

pkrrvr619

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One thing i forgot. Congrats. Cool area
But.....be careful of your liver. Also the divorce rate is pretty high in there.
Just sayin....
So its full of boozers and swingers i take it?
 

BHC Vic

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We still haven’t even seen the aftermath of covid on the economy and if sleezy joe Shuts us down, which he wants to, grab your ankles fellas! Look at the big picture every idiot is back to refinancing and buying stupid shit. Everyone is payment rich! Look around you on the freeways Friday it’s like 2007 all over big boats in summer and big toy haulers in the winter. Everyone says the economy is great but I call bullshit unless you own a Walmart, tp factory, Costco! Big business is cashing in while small businesses are getting their nuts in the ringer. Housing is beyond stupid everywhere again and beyond inflation. Something’s gotta give. Rates always drop look at history. I’d rather own something half price and refinance than buy high with a low rate. I sold my house and I’m waiting.......
Coming home from bhc this weekend that’s all I could think. WTF am I doing wrong? Surrounded by toy haulers and huge diesels. I’ve honestly never seen anything like that before... I want a new truck and a trailer sooooo bad, but I don’t want any payments. I’m finishing paying off what I do owe on and it feels really good. I like to tell myself I’m doing good, and doing the right thing, but damn it sucks. My wife and I made the choice to do the 20 year mortgage. Partly because it keeps me from buying anything with a big, Long payment.

I’ll also add I’m 32 my wife 37 (don’t tell her I said that) when we bought in Norco two years ago I told my wife we were making a mistake. I was kind of a doomer expecting a crash.i usually let my wife make the big decisions and I’ll have to admit I was wrong and could probably get 100k more for my house today than what I paid. (BBQ prices of course)
 
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X Hoser

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Interest rates are low, so I would jump... Would rather pay more for the home vs a hire rate.

We could see high inflation with grandpa Joe in office.
Something to consider. If interest rates go up prices will come down. (Short term anyway). Advantage is with lower prices comes lower property taxes. Higher interest equals more right off. I know, depends on tax laws in effect at the time and who knows what Biden will do? Bottom line, if you plan on staying put for a while, just do it. Another full cycle will happen before you plan on selling again! So Cal prices will always cycle up and down but history shows they always recover and exceed previous highs.
 
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