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RDP Braintrust. What Would You Do? Sell, Buy, Rent? 2021 prediction?

Cole Trickle

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That’s the big one for me that’s hurts... childcare. I’m around 2k a month for the nanny and 700 a month for private school. That’s a huge number imo but it’s the situation I choose.
Yes sir...Also a big part of why I ended up with 1:D

Fuckers are spendy! :cool: :p
 

Flatsix66

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I live just west of Lake Elsinore and have driven Ortega Hwy daily to Costa Mesa and now Irvine for the last 18 years. Currently my commute is 42 miles to Irvine Spectrum and takes about 50 minutes in the around 8am or later when the traffic is light, 5-7am seems to be the peak congestion time and can add another 15 minutes or more. Afternoon commute home always takes longer, like 60-75 minutes at 6pm. Of course any accident brings everything to a standstill and until the wreckage is cleared, there are probably a handful of those events per year at least. Also, long term you can count on road construction projects which will fuck everything up as well.
 

DrunkenSailor

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Doom and gloom coming in hot lol

Fed Discussed Updating Bond-Purchase Guidance ‘Fairly Soon’ (msn.com)

The fed is buying treasury and MBS at a rate of 120bn per month and has been for over a year. Blackrock is acting as the feds clearing house. They need to buy back as much treasury debt as possible to be able to issue new treasury bonds in the coming year to increase their buying power when MBS finally decides its going to go nuclear. It's not Resi its commercial driving the death nail. How many people do you know who work from home? How many stores in your local shopping center are closed or operating at a loss. The lease payments are at a trickle for the owners and they are frantically trying to refi their debt to push back the inevitable. Most of this is wound up in securitizations and that is what the Fed is buying to keep the bottom from falling out. The lending guidelines are already tightening and a number of the originators on the commercial side are starting to fold. Over half of the CMBS market is rated at junk or just a level above.

There is a large amount of money waiting on the sidelines right now. We all know the pain is coming. My thought is now that the election cycle is over the fed is going to stop holding the market up and their closing of 5 of the central banks emergency lending arms appears to reflect that. This months meeting on the 15th is going to be very telling about what the future will hold.

As for CL I have heard horror stories about the commute but when your home your on the water and it doesn't get better than that.
 

Mandelon

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I couldn't handle that long commute on the daily. Why not move to Mission Viejo or San Clemente or somewhere closer to work?
 

Springfield

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My wife and I are considering selling our home in El Cajon and moving to Canyon Lake CA as it seems to fit our lifestyle a bit more than east county san diego these days.

that being said, we have a realtor come over and he would list our home for enough to walk away with a huge downpayment on a home, pay off some car notes, and possibly my wife's bit of student loan.

Canyon lake would be closer to my commute in Irvine and up the 15 corridor for site visits etc so that is another plus besides owning a home on the water.

So there lies the question, should we sell then rent to see what the market will do or just get back into buying another home (not a whole lot of choices unfortunately at this time).

Anyone have any insight on what 2021 may look like? I have to believe Covid is going to have an impact when the stimulus runs out and eviction moratoriums come up. Maybe not for a year or so, but 2022 i imagine is going to see a wave of foreclosures. May not impact socal with the lack of inventory though.....

What say ye?
I would recommend contacting @CanyonLakeDave and discussing with him. However he is a Real Estate broker/agent so I would also hire him for his knowledge and expertise of real estate in the area if I were looking in that direction. ;) my .02
 

Duffster

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if its Canyon lake you should rent. Thats a specific lifestyle area and if you buy you better be prepared to stay a long time
Very true try it out first. I rented in Canyon Lake for 2-years water front with dock and lift with plans to purchase. I thought it was the coolest place when I first move in with great neighbors and about a year in it just wore off due to all the crazy very restrictions and feeling like your living in a fish bowl. Very happy to turn everything in and get out.
 

motormonkey

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Doom and gloom coming in hot lol

Fed Discussed Updating Bond-Purchase Guidance ‘Fairly Soon’ (msn.com)

The fed is buying treasury and MBS at a rate of 120bn per month and has been for over a year. Blackrock is acting as the feds clearing house. They need to buy back as much treasury debt as possible to be able to issue new treasury bonds in the coming year to increase their buying power when MBS finally decides its going to go nuclear. It's not Resi its commercial driving the death nail. How many people do you know who work from home? How many stores in your local shopping center are closed or operating at a loss. The lease payments are at a trickle for the owners and they are frantically trying to refi their debt to push back the inevitable. Most of this is wound up in securitizations and that is what the Fed is buying to keep the bottom from falling out. The lending guidelines are already tightening and a number of the originators on the commercial side are starting to fold. Over half of the CMBS market is rated at junk or just a level above.

There is a large amount of money waiting on the sidelines right now. We all know the pain is coming. My thought is now that the election cycle is over the fed is going to stop holding the market up and their closing of 5 of the central banks emergency lending arms appears to reflect that. This months meeting on the 15th is going to be very telling about what the future will hold.

As for CL I have heard horror stories about the commute but when your home your on the water and it doesn't get better than that.
This needs it's own thread. Haha.
 

Havasu Surfer

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I live just west of Lake Elsinore and have driven Ortega Hwy daily to Costa Mesa and now Irvine for the last 18 years. Currently my commute is 42 miles to Irvine Spectrum and takes about 50 minutes in the around 8am or later when the traffic is light, 5-7am seems to be the peak congestion time and can add another 15 minutes or more. Afternoon commute home always takes longer, like 60-75 minutes at 6pm. Of course any accident brings everything to a standstill and until the wreckage is cleared, there are probably a handful of those events per year at least. Also, long term you can count on road construction projects which will fuck everything up as well.
A big part of the traffic conditions on west Ortega is the new developments in Rancho Viejo that will be ongoing for several years and I haven’t heard any plans to widen the single lane portions. It’s always a cluster during rush hour and when the high school lets out. Good luck with your decision


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Boatymcboatface

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I live in Temecula and left the OC for all the same reasons mentioned (better schools, bigger house, more land, and better prices) my house isn’t biggest or the best but it’s what we could afford and still be able to do all the things we want (boat, motorhome, off-road toys) I make the commute to OC and San Diego and it’s not that bad but I do leave early! It takes about an 1hr or more but I don’t use the toll roads and get home early so I don’t get the traffic either way. If I had a 9 to 5 job no way I’d make the commute! I’ve been in the bad traffic on a Friday in the afternoon and I make sure that shit doesn’t ever happen again but that’s the freedom of outside sales and setting your own schedule. I’m in the golf industry so everyone starts early and leaves early. We’ve looked at canyon lake as a option but the surrounding area makes us say no! And that exit is terrible! I’d rather make the drive to lake San Vincente in San Diego on the weekends or afternoons than live in canyon lake. Also from what I hear and others have alluded to is it’s a BIG swingers community.
 

gqchris

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A big part of the traffic conditions on west Ortega is the new developments in Rancho Viejo that will be ongoing for several years and I haven’t heard any plans to widen the single lane portions. It’s always a cluster during rush hour and when the high school lets out. Good luck with your decision


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There is no way in HELL I could drive that road twice daily. No way!

Years back we knew this cocktail waitress at one of the clubs in Costa Mesa my buddies DJ'ed at. She would work, get fucked up, and drive home to lake Elsinore EVERY Night on Ortega. I have no idea how she didnt kill anyone. We would always try to stop her and she would make a huge fucking scene and because she was smoking hot and banging all the GM's she would be let go. . I just couldn't fathom that drive at night like that.
 

c_land

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Watch out for those Canyon Lake neighbors with gnomes and flamingos in the front yard
 

pkrrvr619

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I live in Temecula and left the OC for all the same reasons mentioned (better schools, bigger house, more land, and better prices) my house isn’t biggest or the best but it’s what we could afford and still be able to do all the things we want (boat, motorhome, off-road toys) I make the commute to OC and San Diego and it’s not that bad but I do leave early! It takes about an 1hr or more but I don’t use the toll roads and get home early so I don’t get the traffic either way. If I had a 9 to 5 job no way I’d make the commute! I’ve been in the bad traffic on a Friday in the afternoon and I make sure that shit doesn’t ever happen again but that’s the freedom of outside sales and setting your own schedule. I’m in the golf industry so everyone starts early and leaves early. We’ve looked at canyon lake as a option but the surrounding area makes us say no! And that exit is terrible! I’d rather make the drive to lake San Vincente in San Diego on the weekends or afternoons than live in canyon lake. Also from what I hear and others have alluded to is it’s a BIG swingers community.
I am in outside sales as well and believe i can schedule meetings in OC later in the day to avoid rush hour. I may have to be in OC only 2 -3 times per week.

What area is terrible around CL?
 

pronstar

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Food for thought from a great podcast/YouTube vid from The Rebel Capitalist:

People don’t buy houses based on price. They buy based on payment.

Taking inflation into account, housing is cheaper now (payment as a percentage of wages) than it was in 1976, or 1984.

We’re effectively at negative mortgage interest rates when we take inflation into account.

And inflation is great for carrying debt, because it effectively reduces it, while your equity grows.

This market isn’t going anywhere for a while.



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evantwheeler

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I am in outside sales as well and believe i can schedule meetings in OC later in the day to avoid rush hour. I may have to be in OC only 2 -3 times per week.

What area is terrible around CL?
Railroad Exit on the 15
 

Roaddawg

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Well shit.

Where I am at now is 92 miles. Canyon lake to irvine is 52. From what i read with traffic trends i might be saving some time. But if that data is pre covid that is not usable info.

1.5 hours best case scenario from Irvine to Canyon lake? Damn. This may not work.
What time of day you are making that drive can make a huge difference. I commuted from Winchester to Santa Ana for 3.5 years and it would take me about an hour and a half normally.
 

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How do some of you guys have a 1-1/2 hour commute from OC to IE area? I would average 2-1/2 to 3. I would have 2-1/2 hours from Menifee to LA and 3-1/2 on the way home. Took me 6 hours to go from Torrance to Hesperia one day with no accidents.
 

Roaddawg

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How do some of you guys have a 1-1/2 hour commute from OC to IE area? I would average 2-1/2 to 3. I would have 2-1/2 hours from Menifee to LA and 3-1/2 on the way home. Took me 6 hours to go from Torrance to Hesperia one day with no accidents.
All depends on the time of day. I drive from Winchester to Downtown LA (10 @ 110) right now and it takes about 1 hr 20 mins or so. I do work graveyards and leave around 6:30 pm though
 

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All depends on the time of day. I drive from Winchester to Downtown LA (10 @ 110) right now and it takes about 1 hr 20 mins or so. I do work graveyards and leave around 6:30 pm though
So you are opposite of traffic.
 

Roaddawg

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So you are opposite of traffic.
Most of the time. I had a training day the other day and left downtown around 2 pm and it took just under 2 hours to get home

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Boatymcboatface

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I am in outside sales as well and believe i can schedule meetings in OC later in the day to avoid rush hour. I may have to be in OC only 2 -3 times per week.

What area is terrible around CL?
Yes that exit sucks and we’ll everything around canyon lake is lake smell somemore! Spend a day driving around and see what you like outside the gates and around the exits of the freeway north and south from railroad.

I’m not opposed to living in there it’s still on our list of maybes down the road but we are looking more and more in the meadow view area in Temecula.
 

rivrrts429

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Yes that exit sucks and we’ll everything around canyon lake is lake smell somemore! Spend a day driving around and see what you like outside the gates and around the exits of the freeway north and south from railroad.

I’m not opposed to living in there it’s still on our list of maybes down the road but we are looking more and more in the meadow view area in Temecula.


Quail Valley is the only shit hole area but everything else surrounding CL is decent. Elsinore is down the hill and no reason to go there except for Costco if that’s your thing.

It was awesome growing up in CL and Menifee. We wakeboarded or rode dirt bikes every day depending on weather.
 
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