Silicon Valley Bank - Shutdown!

[regor]

It's crazy that they just changed the waterfall like that. I would be suing too.

It's like looking into the FDIC crystal ball when all hell breaks loose.

I hope the money changers and politicians have good bunkers for their sake. I suspect quite a few will be swallowing bullets.

 

[pronstar]

Monetary Tightening and U.S. Bank Fragility in 2023: Mark-to-Market Losses and Uninsured Depositor Runs?

We develop an empirical methodology and conceptual framework to analyze the effect of rising interest rates on the value of U.S. bank assets and bank stability.

papers.ssrn.com

We analyze U.S. banks’ asset exposure to a recent rise in the interest rates with implications for financial stability. The U.S. banking system’s market value of assets is $2 trillion lower than suggested by their book value of assets accounting for loan portfolios held to maturity. Marked-to-market bank assets have declined by an average of 10% across all the banks, with the bottom 5th percentile experiencing a decline of 20%.

Since the asset portfolios of many banks have considerable exposure to commercial real estate, I believe these assets will be further written-down as the commercial RE market tries to figure out what to do post-COVID, post-WorkFromHome.

We’re nowhere near the final inning of this balllgame…

 

[Waterjunky]

We’re nowhere near the final inning of this balllgame…

Personally I think the game is just really getting going. We are much closer to the start than the end. Think about it, with the oddities and manipulation in the economy setting a stage, this bank think is the first real inning of play.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Since the asset portfolios of many banks have considerable exposure to commercial real estate, I believe these assets will be further written-down as the commercial RE market tries to figure out what to do post-COVID, post-WorkFromHome.

We’re nowhere near the final inning of this balllgame…

I think much commercial will end up getting converted to high density housing.

It’s the perfect WEF play. Rent a 400 sq ft domicile with a place to hang your bike and a community bathroom on every floor. The building owners will end up making more money. It’s going to take awhile to get there though.

 

[530RL]

It's crazy that they just changed the waterfall like that. I would be suing too.

It is interesting as the prospectus specifically stated that the AT1 bonds were subordinated to equity and that Swiss regulators would have no obligation to value them at anything other than zero in the event of a required contribution of capital by the regulators.

They were in contractual language a subordinated class of equity, yet labeled a "bond".

It will be an interesting case where one side argues the language of the contract in which they entered into is not applicable because they had the noun "bond" in their label while the other side argues that AT1 priority in the capital structure was clear as the light of day in the prospectus.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Since the asset portfolios of many banks have considerable exposure to commercial real estate, I believe these assets will be further written-down as the commercial RE market tries to figure out what to do post-COVID, post-WorkFromHome.

We’re nowhere near the final inning of this balllgame…

It's not just the work from home issue. Capital needed to be deployed post housing crisis. Underwriting guidelines on commercial debt was incredibly loose to ensure money could be put to work. The amount of commercial debt rated as junk is astounding. There is a whole level of pain there that is just waiting once The economy gets tougher.

 

[wzuber]

It's like looking into the FDIC crystal ball when all hell breaks loose.

I hope the money changers and politicians have good bunkers for their sake. I suspect quite a few will be swallowing bullets.

Well deserved and earned booolitz to be precise. Fuck them. Let the fire roar...

 

[shintoooo]

 

[regor]

Alright, the dam has broken!!!!!

Walmart Layoffs At Fulfillment Centers Signals Ominous Sign For Economy​

"We recently adjusted staffing levels to better prepare for the future..."

THU MAR 23, AT 11:30 AM

Disney Begins 7000 Job Cuts After String Of Theatrical Failures ​

Disney has made little mention of the role their "diversity and inclusion" methodology might have played in plummeting audience numbers...

THU MAR 23, AT 10:40 AM

Medical, Financial, Political, & War Disasters Getting Worse: Dr. Chris Martenson​

“People need to be ready for a vast punishing return of inflation... and a decade of shortages on everything because of years of price suppression.”

THU MAR 23, AT 11:00 AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1638633946194780164

 

[regor]

 

[shintoooo]

 

[wzuber]

Pleeeeze...no.....
Pleeeeeze don't uncross for the camera.

 

[shintoooo]

Pleeeeze...no.....
Pleeeeeze don't uncross for the camera.

 

[wzuber]

You bastard, how dare you.....
I was eating one of those when I opened This......
fed it to my pitbull...lol

 

[shintoooo]

You bastard, how dare you.....
I was eating one of those when I opened This......
fed it to my pitbull...lol

You went to Janet's Pastrami?

 

[wzuber]

You went to Janet's Pastrami?

Grubhub.....delivered personally by janet herself........mmmm so meaty...lol

 

[regor]

Hartnett: Commercial Real Estate Is The Next Shoe To Drop​

"The Fed may ultimately need Fed YCC or QE to constrain upside for yields"

FRI MAR 24, AT 6:20 PM

 

[HNL2LHC]

I think much commercial will end up getting converted to high density housing.

It’s the perfect WEF play. Rent a 400 sq ft domicile with a place to hang your bike and a community bathroom on every floor. The building owners will end up making more money. It’s going to take awhile to get there though.

You dont know what you are talking about……

LOL. I have been saying that about the empty buildings now in Honolulu. Now look at this…..

New owner of Davies Pacific Center plans to turn offices into condos for sale

Post-pandemic downtown Honolulu is turning the corner with the next frontier of redevelopment. The Avalon Group recently purchased the Davies Pacific Center, a 1970s-era building that many powerhouse law firms and businesses call home. The Conversation's Catherine Cruz spoke to President and CEO...

www.hawaiipublicradio.org

 

[lbhsbz]

You dont know what you are talking about……

LOL. I have been saying that about the empty buildings now in Honolulu. Now look at this…..

New owner of Davies Pacific Center plans to turn offices into condos for sale

Post-pandemic downtown Honolulu is turning the corner with the next frontier of redevelopment. The Avalon Group recently purchased the Davies Pacific Center, a 1970s-era building that many powerhouse law firms and businesses call home. The Conversation's Catherine Cruz spoke to President and CEO...

www.hawaiipublicradio.org

Why people would want to share walls with their neighbors….I’ll never know.

 

[Ace in the Hole]

You dont know what you are talking about……

LOL. I have been saying that about the empty buildings now in Honolulu. Now look at this…..

New owner of Davies Pacific Center plans to turn offices into condos for sale

Post-pandemic downtown Honolulu is turning the corner with the next frontier of redevelopment. The Avalon Group recently purchased the Davies Pacific Center, a 1970s-era building that many powerhouse law firms and businesses call home. The Conversation's Catherine Cruz spoke to President and CEO...

www.hawaiipublicradio.org

I lived in a converted building one year of college…it kinda sucked but it was affordable…had surfboard storage, parking etc. this is going to happen a lot in Hawaii.

I’m going to interview for a RE firm there now that my non compete is up…the conversion market will be a gold mine if managed right. I do not want to move back but would 100% do a hybrid role which I pitched them…

 

[DWC]

I think much commercial will end up getting converted to high density housing.

It’s the perfect WEF play. Rent a 400 sq ft domicile with a place to hang your bike and a community bathroom on every floor. The building owners will end up making more money. It’s going to take awhile to get there though.

Our office in Orange has 4 floors. Parking was impossible pre-Vid. Couple call centers, mortgage broker, debt consolidation, FBI and OC health services. Our space is 50% at best. Health services and FBI seems to be mostly normal. Haven’t seen anyone in the other offices for a couple years. They’ll have to repurpose or tear down at some point.

 

[WhatExit?]

First Citizens to buy most of SVB​

By Jessica Hartogs, Editor at LinkedIn News
Updated 3 hours ago

First Citizens Bancshares is acquiring much of Silicon Valley Bank, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced late Sunday. The collapse of SVB a little more than two weeks ago was the U.S.'s largest bank failure since the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and caused widespread panic across the financial sector. SVB's 17 branches will open Monday as First Citizens', with its clients becoming those of the latter's, too. The deal includes the purchase of approximately $72 billion of SVB assets at a discount of $16.5 billion, while around $90 billion in securities and other assets were not included. The FDIC believes SVB's failure will cost the government’s deposit insurance fund around $20 billion.

FDIC sold most of SVB's assets to First Citizens by offering a $16.5b discount.

The regulator is also reviving a tactic used during the financial crisis known as a shared loss agreement (SLA), which can help improve recovery by keeping the assets in the private sector though it also gives the buyer bank some risk.

In comments for his senate testimony Tuesday, the FDIC's Gruenberg said, "the FDIC received bids from only two institutions, only one of which provided a valid offer on the insured deposits and some of the assets of SVB."

In total, the deal shows how much government assistance will be required to stoke new deal making during this banking crisis.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-...aking-over-silicon-valley-bank-154218153.html

 

[regor]

Another San Franshitco operation fails, SHOCKING!!!!

 

[ChumpChange]

Here come the ramifications…

KeyBank to pay $190 million because of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank failures

KeyBank took a $190 million hit to its income in the fourth quarter of 2023, something it and other banks will have to do because of the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last year.

www.cleveland.com

 

[hallett21]

Here come the ramifications…

KeyBank to pay $190 million because of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank failures

KeyBank took a $190 million hit to its income in the fourth quarter of 2023, something it and other banks will have to do because of the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last year.

www.cleveland.com

Can these “paybacks” cause solvency issues? Seems like loans written in the last 18 months are pretty profitable for the banks.

 

[ChumpChange]

Can these “paybacks” cause solvency issues? Seems like loans written in the last 18 months are pretty profitable for the banks.

At the same time, loans written before the rate increases can be losing money if they weren’t match funded / hedged at the time of closing.

It would take a long time to explain. There would be so much to address with individual banks to determine that.

 

[rrrr]

Those banks are paying because the FDIC (read Biden administration) decided to cover all depositors, even those over the insured limit. Easy political decision when someone else has to pay for it.

When Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed in March 2023, the FDIC stepped in to protect deposits — including those that weren’t FDIC-insured — to avoid further fallout at other banks. It finalized plans in November to recover costs related to the failures by charging other banks that were FDIC-insured.

Only banks with $5 billion or more in total assets will pay the special assessment fee, which the FDIC estimates is 114 banking organizations. How much banks pay is tied to how much money they carry in uninsured deposits. The FDIC hasn’t released a list of what each bank will pay.

 

[rrrr]

At the same time, loans written before the rate increases can be losing money if they weren’t match funded / hedged at the time of closing.

SVB thought 0% interest was going to last forever, even as the government was spending $6 trillion in COVID giveaways and Democrat freebies.

 

[ChumpChange]

Seems like this mess is still going.

NYCB buys Signature Bank and now tanking. Tried to be the hero but becoming another victim. Weren’t prepared for the new regulations of going over $100 billion in assets.

 

[Markus]

Those banks are paying because the FDIC (read Biden administration) decided to cover all depositors, even those over the insured limit. Easy political decision when someone else has to pay for it.

When Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed in March 2023, the FDIC stepped in to protect deposits — including those that weren’t FDIC-insured — to avoid further fallout at other banks. It finalized plans in November to recover costs related to the failures by charging other banks that were FDIC-insured.

Only banks with $5 billion or more in total assets will pay the special assessment fee, which the FDIC estimates is 114 banking organizations. How much banks pay is tied to how much money they carry in uninsured deposits. The FDIC hasn’t released a list of what each bank will pay.

It was much better than the alternative, which was a bank run.

 

[bowtiejunkie]

Seems like this mess is still going.

NYCB buys Signature Bank and now tanking. Tried to be the hero but becoming another victim. Weren’t prepared for the new regulations of going over $100 billion in assets.

Increasing losses and non-performing loans in commercial real estate as well. It doesn't appear break the bank bad - yet.

 

[ChumpChange]

Increasing losses and non-performing loans in commercial real estate as well. It doesn't appear break the bank bad - yet.

Down another 17% and after hours. After being down 22% in normal trading. Moody’s cut them to junk an hour ago.

The FDIC has some work to do before Friday close.

 

[rivermobster]

Down another 17% and after hours. After being down 22% in normal trading. Moody’s cut them to junk an hour ago.

The FDIC has some work to do before Friday close.

Time to buy some stocks? Maybe?

 

[DLC]

It was much better than the alternative, which was a bank run.

they don’t do bank runs any more….

thats old school!

they play with magic and make things disappear 🫠

 

[ChumpChange]

Time to buy some stocks? Maybe?

Don’t catch falling knives.

 

[rrrr]

It was much better than the alternative, which was a bank run.

Yeah, those sophisticated CFOs and venture capitalists would have lost millions. Good thing the dependable 'ol US taxpayer covered their losses.

 

[DLC]

FDIC comes in and you get to choose which shot glass has the acorn inside….

 

[ChumpChange]

Time to buy some stocks? Maybe?

Made some overnight changes and a press release. Today could be interesting. Could also just be a dead cat bounce. Buying after hours at $3.50 could’ve been a good idea. Open is coming.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

The only thing that saves them is when Jamie goes on MSNBC to announce the new addition to the jp Morgan family of companies.

 

[2Driver]

Even Powell on 60 minutes eluded to more are coming. Pretty bold statement for a Fed President. Yelled doesn’t know what day it is.

 

[regor]

NY's Hochul Faces 'Political Crisis' As NYCB Collapse Repercussions Loom​

...if FDIC went "by the book" and next week sold all of the rent stabilized Signature Bank multifamily assets for whatever hard money bid is available. New York would face a political crisis.

WED MAR 6, AT 9:11 AM


And the hits just keep coming...

Once the darling of the small banking crisis comeback, New York Community Bancorp has crashed 45% to fresh 30 year lows after The Wall Street Journal reports the bank is seeking to raise equity capital in a bid to shore up confidence in the troubled regional lender.

According to people familiar with the matter, NYCB has dispatched bankers to gauge investors’ interest in buying stock in the company.

There’s no guarantee there will be a deal, or that one would succeed in addressing the bank’s challenges, which as of Wednesday morning had led to a roughly 80% decline in its stock price since January.

 

[regor]

NYCB Announces $1BN Equity Infusion, Fmr Tsy Sec Mnuchin Joins Board​

...announce an equity investment of more than $1 billion led by Steven Mnuchin’s Liberty Strategic Capital, Hudson Bay Capital and Reverence Capital Partners

WED MAR 6, AT 11:10 AM

 

[wzuber]

NYCB Announces $1BN Equity Infusion, Fmr Tsy Sec Mnuchin Joins Board​

...announce an equity investment of more than $1 billion led by Steven Mnuchin’s Liberty Strategic Capital, Hudson Bay Capital and Reverence Capital Partners

WED MAR 6, AT 11:10 AM


View attachment 1344257

the beginning of the great taking.....

 

[shintoooo]

Everything is ok. Stocks all time high. A.I./ A.I./A.I.

 

[regor]

Everything is ok. Stocks all time high. A.I./ A.I./A.I.

At some point...............