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So Cal real estate market

hallett21

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banks are currently starting to tighten up. I know chase went to 20% down 720 + fico only. I would guess this trend will continue.

From some of my real estate friends, it sounds like appraisals are starting to tighten up as well.

Mortgage broker would fix that


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LargeOrangeFont

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There's always winners and losers.

What is your thinking on how any of how a housing collapse plays out if government puts a hold on foreclosures?

What that tells me is that the .gov is just going to give more money to the big banks when mortgages aren't paid. Without a supply increase, prices wont significantly drop. If prices don't drop, people have less reason to walk away, especially when they know they don't have to pay and can't be evicted or foreclosed on if they stay where they are at.

.Gov gives more $$$ to banks. Banks turn around in a couple years and add what was not paid to the back end loans, and the banks make more money coming and going.
 

EmpirE231

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What is your thinking on how any of how a housing collapse plays out if government puts a hold on foreclosures?

What that tells me is that the .gov is just going to give more money to the big banks when mortgages aren't paid. Without a supply increase, prices wont significantly drop. If prices don't drop, people have less reason to walk away, especially when they know they don't have to pay and can't be evicted or foreclosed on if they stay where they are at.

.Gov gives more $$$ to banks. Banks turn around in a couple years and add what was not paid to the back end loans, and the banks make more money coming and going.

what you just explained is MASS socialism. In my leanings of history, Socialism is not good for capitalism and inflated real estate costs.

Now I can be wrong..... but I would expect this socialism experience to fail just like all other socialist experiments, which equals a bad economy. A bad economy equals decreased real estate prices. ESPECIALLY anywhere like CA, NY, FL, even throw in AZ. (insert any place with high real estate costs)

last time around they did short sales, people got to stay in house 1-2 years without making a payment etc, and the market still tanked. I don't see that changing really. At the end of the day it comes down to jobs and money, and I'm pretty sure moving forward, everyone is gonna have less of that.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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what you just explained is MASS socialism. In my leanings of history, Socialism is not good for capitalism and inflated real estate costs.

Now I can be wrong..... but I would expect this socialism experience to fail just like all other socialist experiments, which equals a bad economy. A bad economy equals decreased real estate prices. ESPECIALLY anywhere like CA, NY, FL, even throw in AZ. (insert any place with high real estate costs)

last time around they did short sales, people got to stay in house 1-2 years without making a payment etc, and the market still tanked. I don't see that changing really. At the end of the day it comes down to jobs and money, and I'm pretty sure moving forward, everyone is gonna have less of that.

We are already in mass socialism from a monetary perspective. Banks are going to get money from the government one way or another.

People were in those situations in 07 and 08 because they bought houses with 0 down and were paying interest only loans. Their payments were skyrocketing as interest rates went up, and they had no jobs. It was cheaper to go rent something than stay in their home, and they had no reason to stay in their home. All the short sales, and foreclosures were reactionary. This is why the bottom of the RE market was 3 years later.. it took that long to flush everyone out of their houses and banks to flush inventory.

Today people are in house with a low fixed rate. Their payments are not going up, but rent is likely very close to what they are paying. There is now proactive measures to HALT foreclosures as soon as this started. What reasons do they have to move or walk away? As we go forward, no one wants the mess that happened in 08, and the government is not going to keep sending citizens COVID money. The government is going to make sure the banks are whole up front, so the whole house of cards does not collapse this time.

I'm not saying there isn't going to be a recession and foreclosures, but we aren't going to see housing prices drop 40% in my opinion.
 

Magic Mike

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I think rent is much higher than a mortgage payment.
 

hallett21

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We bought 1.5 years ago. Now granted I’ve remodeled the whole thing but it would rent today for 125% of our mortgage.

Once we get our detached garage/ADU completed it will rent for 70-75% of our mortgage.

I’d say the majority of people cannot afford to leave their homes to go rent something.


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JayBreww

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Depends on location and your down. My mortgage is 300 more a month in Yucaipa than my rent was in Redlands.


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EmpirE231

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We are already in mass socialism from a monetary perspective. Banks are going to get money from the government one way or another.

People were in those situations in 07 and 08 because they bought houses with 0 down and were paying interest only loans. Their payments were skyrocketing as interest rates went up, and they had no jobs. It was cheaper to go rent something than stay in their home, and they had no reason to stay in their home. All the short sales, and foreclosures were reactionary. This is why the bottom of the RE market was 3 years later.. it took that long to flush everyone out of their houses and banks to flush inventory.

Today people are in house with a low fixed rate. Their payments are not going up, but rent is likely very close to what they are paying. There is now proactive measures to HALT foreclosures as soon as this started. What reasons do they have to move or walk away? As we go forward, no one wants the mess that happened in 08, and the government is not going to keep sending citizens COVID money. The government is going to make sure the banks are whole up front, so the whole house of cards does not collapse this time.

I'm not saying there isn't going to be a recession and foreclosures, but we aren't going to see housing prices drop 40% in my opinion.

While I know some of this funny math and govt intervention "might" help, I still believe it wont. I just wanted to go on record and state my crystal ball theory, and if I am wrong... someone can quote it 2 years from now and lol @ me.

I just see HUGE loss of jobs, and a lot of those jobs will not be coming back. Companies are filing BK left and right, lots of them closing a lot of locations permanently. Those companies that do survive will have to run leaner to try and recoup the losses they took. Lots of companies will continue to fail over the next 4-6 months while we do this whole "slow roll" back to "normal"

rents will go down. It comes down to $, if people don't have money to pay rent.... are landlords just gonna sit on their vacancies? or take a slight haircut. (yes people NEED a place to live, but that still costs money)

people are better "equity" wise currently.... but there are also a LOT of people that put 3% down, with maxed out credit cards, a SxS loan and fifth wheel loan and 85k truck loan. It is almost the same house of cards as 2008, just spread out a little differently. Not too many people have the discipline to sit on hundreds of thousands in equity when you can suck it out for 3%. The people who are still sitting equity heavy with very little debt, I would say are the exception.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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While I know some of this funny math and govt intervention "might" help, I still believe it wont. I just wanted to go on record and state my crystal ball theory, and if I am wrong... someone can quote it 2 years from now and lol @ me.

I just see HUGE loss of jobs, and a lot of those jobs will not be coming back. Companies are filing BK left and right, lots of them closing a lot of locations permanently. Those companies that do survive will have to run leaner to try and recoup the losses they took. Lots of companies will continue to fail over the next 4-6 months while we do this whole "slow roll" back to "normal"

rents will go down. It comes down to $, if people don't have money to pay rent.... are landlords just gonna sit on their vacancies? or take a slight haircut. (yes people NEED a place to live, but that still costs money)

people are better "equity" wise currently.... but there are also a LOT of people that put 3% down, with maxed out credit cards, a SxS loan and fifth wheel loan and 85k truck loan. It is almost the same house of cards as 2008, just spread out a little differently. Not too many people have the discipline to sit on hundreds of thousands in equity when you can suck it out for 3%. The people who are still sitting equity heavy with very little debt, I would say are the exception.

I agree with you there will be some pain, I just don't think that will come in the form of housing market collapse. As you noted, it is simply a different house of cards, and government and banks are smarter now and know how to mitigate a mortgage meltdown.

There may very well be a car, truck, and toy meltdown however.

There is already a housing shortage, and plenty of tenants, Even with 25% unemployment that means there is 75% employment. There are a lot of people in the renter pool out there, demand is always going to be high.

With regards to renters, I have one door that is late this month and may not pay. I have no recourse at this time anyway. Realistically I probably wouldn't even be able to evict her until the end of the year even if I wanted to. I can try to plead poverty with the bank, or just suck it up and take care of it.
 

rmarion

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it's a SELLERS market... w/ a HOT BITE
 

lbhsbz

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I agree with you there will be some pain, I just don't think that will come in the form of housing market collapse. As you noted, it is simply a different house of cards, and government and banks are smarter now and know how to mitigate a mortgage meltdown.

There may very well be a car, truck, and toy meltdown however.

There is already a housing shortage, and plenty of tenants, Even with 25% unemployment that means there is 75% employment. There are a lot of people in the renter pool out there, demand is always going to be high.

With regards to renters, I have one door that is late this month and may not pay. I have no recourse at this time anyway. Realistically I probably wouldn't even be able to evict her until the end of the year even if I wanted to. I can try to plead poverty with the bank, or just suck it up and take care of it.
3 factors right now that caused me to sell

1: I don’t want to rent to a tenant that may lose their job in the upcoming months...this a big possibility right now

2: I’m without a job right now, and this money in the bank will provide a security blanket

3: if I sell now,I can still avoid cap gain taxes.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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3 factors right now that caused me to sell

1: I don’t want to rent to a tenant that may lose their job in the upcoming months...this a big possibility right now

2: I’m without a job right now, and this money in the bank will provide a security blanket

3: if I sell now,I can still avoid cap gain taxes.

I get your reasoning 100%. Take the profit and run.
 

EmpirE231

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3 factors right now that caused me to sell

1: I don’t want to rent to a tenant that may lose their job in the upcoming months...this a big possibility right now

2: I’m without a job right now, and this money in the bank will provide a security blanket

3: if I sell now,I can still avoid cap gain taxes.

still a great time to sell, So I would say you did it right!
 

whiteworks

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The home is located in an upscale neighborhood called Hayden View Estates. Has a view of Hayden Lake which is only about 4 minutes to the ramp. Downtown Coeur d'Alene is about 10 minutes away and so is the launch ramps and docks. You have dee View attachment 874707 View attachment 874709 View attachment 874708 View attachment 874710 View attachment 874711 View attachment 874712 View attachment 874713 View attachment 874714 View attachment 874706 ded access to the national forest which the house backs up to. It has 4 master bedrooms, fireplaces in kitchen, dining room, living room and one of the bed rooms.Thank you for asking.. View attachment 874705
I was up in Hayden lake area last summer, I enjoyed my time there. Sweet pad, if you ever think of renting it for the summer furnished let me know. Our crew has been renting lake pads for the last few years. I could spend more time up there for sure.
 

riverroyal

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Time for a major thread jack, let’s see some pics of this place, the view, dock access?, and whatever else you have to share about it. Roughly where is it located to downtown?
No kidding!
 

Tittyman

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I was up in Hayden lake area last summer, I enjoyed my time there. Sweet pad, if you ever think of renting it for the summer furnished let me know. Our crew has been renting lake pads for the last few years. I could spend more time up there for sure.
I'm really not interested in doing a seasonal rental. I've been a landlord for 30 years. I could probably rent it out for $3000-$4000 per week but I don't need the hassle. The tenants are paying $3800 per month which is a lot by Idaho standards. Just want to sell the house and the 1/2 acre lot next door to it. It would be a great summer and winter rental. The home is located on a dead end street with very little traffic. In the winter time the road is plowed 2 times per day. We have 4 ski areas located within an hours drive. Thank you for your comments. Guess I did something right..
 

lbhsbz

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So, shit went kinda side wards. We went over to show the house and while the wife and kids left after cleaning up the front/inside, the dude was smoking weed in the garage the whole time with a buddy, so that...along with the entire contents of the storage unit he let go a couple weeks ago sitting on what used to be the back lawn, kinda turned off the buyers.
What a dickhead.

needless to say, I pulled it off the market until they’re gone.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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So, shit went kinda side wards. We went over to show the house and while the wife and kids left after cleaning up the front/inside, the dude was smoking weed in the garage the whole time with a buddy, so that...along with the entire contents of the storage unit he let go a couple weeks ago sitting on what used to be the back lawn, kinda turned off the buyers.
What a dickhead.

needless to say, I pulled it off the market until they’re gone.

Sounds like your tenant has experience with this.
 

RiverDave

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I have friends all over the place that sell real estate and they are all saying they are having record months.

Friend in Florida owns a large remax and said it is absolutely crazy.

Friend in Temecula area said the same.


I read somewhere online that new home searches are up 40%, and of that 40% new homes with pools (searches) are up massively as well.

An unexpected impact of the stay at home order is people wanting to have newer, nicer, larger homes with bigger backyards.

Things are crazy in Havasu right now as well. Stacy has 8 million in escrow right now, 1 million closed last week. Those aren’t huge numbers for California but for our little town they are huge.

There isn’t any sign of it slowing down, actually quite the opposite
 
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RiverDave

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So, shit went kinda side wards. We went over to show the house and while the wife and kids left after cleaning up the front/inside, the dude was smoking weed in the garage the whole time with a buddy, so that...along with the entire contents of the storage unit he let go a couple weeks ago sitting on what used to be the back lawn, kinda turned off the buyers.
What a dickhead.

needless to say, I pulled it off the market until they’re gone.

That sucks
 

Englewood

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Things are crazy in Havasu right now as well. Stacy has 8 million in escrow right now, 1 million closed last week. Those aren’t huge numbers for California but for our little town they are huge.

There isn’t any sign of it slowing down, actually quite the opposite

I own an RE company in SoCal with 400 agents. Those are huge numbers regardless of where you are.

On a side note, our Property Management Co. manages 150 rentals and only 1 is on a payment plan.

I'm at a loss as to why things are staying strong.
 

EmpirE231

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I own an RE company in SoCal with 400 agents. Those are huge numbers regardless of where you are.

On a side note, our Property Management Co. manages 150 rentals and only 1 is on a payment plan.

I'm at a loss as to why things are staying strong.

what area are your agents in, and are they still seeing a very strong market?

I kinda get the havasu thing, because anyone in California who was on the fence to get out, just did.
 

Englewood

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what area are your agents in, and are they still seeing a very strong market?

I kinda get the havasu thing, because anyone in California who was on the fence to get out, just did.

We actually have agents throughout the state. The Majority are in SD/OC/LA/IE. While demand has obviously dropped, so has the inventory as nobody wants to sell now.
 

D19

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The market is really weird right now. Everything seems to point to a major correction but it's still hot. I think much of that has to do with the low rates and super low inventory. Due to killer rates and less buyer demand, it's a great time to buy a property if you plan on being there for the long haul and it's an even better time to sell.

If you're looking to flip your money or only be there for a couple years then I think you need to be a little more cautious of what can happen in the next couple years. However, there is no crystal ball so ultimately do what makes sense for you.

In my opinion, the next number to decline is the amount of active real estate agents and lenders. We are transitioning from an "order taking industry" back to a skills industry. The low hanging fruit is gone.
 

HB2Havasu

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I have friends all over the place that sell real estate and they are all saying they are having record months.

Friend in Florida owns a large remax and said it is absolutely crazy.

Friend in Temecula area said the same.


I read somewhere online that new home searches are up 40%, and of that 40% new homes with pools (searches) are up massively as well.

An unexpected impact of the stay at home order is people wanting to have newer, nicer, larger homes with bigger backyards.

Things are crazy in Havasu right now as well. Stacy has 8 million in escrow right now, 1 million closed last week. Those aren’t huge numbers for California but for our little town they are huge.

There isn’t any sign of it slowing down, actually quite the opposite

Havasu is probably going to get busier IMO over the next 18 months. The people who have been on the fence about evacuating Commiefornia are all ready to leave after seeing what Furor Newsome has been pulling the last 2 months. It's going to get worse, when the next round of taxes hit. When Sacramento finally realize people have to work to pay into the tax base it will be too late, lol. Hell even my wife who has been hardcore "I'm never leaving the beach" is even pushing to leave the Golden State. :eek:
 

FishSniper

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Havasu is probably going to get busier IMO over the next 18 months. The people who have been on the fence about evacuating Commiefornia are all ready to leave after seeing what Furor Newsome has been pulling the last 2 months. It's going to get worse, when the next round of taxes hit. When Sacramento finally realize people have to work to pay into the tax base it will be too late, lol. Hell even my wife who has been hardcore "I'm never leaving the beach" is even pushing to leave the Golden State. :eek:
This is kinda what I’m starting to think also this whole thing is gonna put ppl that were on the fence the push they need to get the hell out of CA I think.
 

RiverDave

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Havasu is probably going to get busier IMO over the next 18 months. The people who have been on the fence about evacuating Commiefornia are all ready to leave after seeing what Furor Newsome has been pulling the last 2 months. It's going to get worse, when the next round of taxes hit. When Sacramento finally realize people have to work to pay into the tax base it will be too late, lol. Hell even my wife who has been hardcore "I'm never leaving the beach" is even pushing to leave the Golden State. :eek:

my wife put another 1.5 in escrow since yesterday. This was their social media post today. They are over 9.5 and I am sure by Wednesday will be upwards of 11.. The phone is ringing more and more everyday

It is nuts out here right now

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Magic Mike

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Time for a second honeymoon and some boat shopping!

Congrats!!!
 

RiverDave

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Time for a second honeymoon and some boat shopping!

Congrats!!!

lol.. Trying to be smart about things. I am going to sell both my boats and get something that makes more sense for us right now, but I’m trying to keep a throttle on the budget.

We rarely make posts like that but in uncertain times it helps potential clients choose who they want to use as a realtor. Some person sitting on their ass watching Netflix as Dennis-19 said or people that are out there making things happen.
 

lbhsbz

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That sucks

It gets better....all I had in writing was a text message stating that "June will be our last month". After the shitshow on friday, the wife called to see how things went...I was rather vague and simply asked for a signed letter...or even something that holds more water than a text, giving proper notice to terminate the rental agreement and vacate the property. Mind you, this woman is the business manager for the family's commercial flooring business.

I received this (names excluded for privacy)...

Looking at the realistic closing of our project & then relocating to Oklahoma and with the respect to all involved we will be out of this property completely by July 31, 2020.

If I wrote a somewhat official letter like that in any sort of business environment, I'd expect never to be engaged with again by whoever I wrote it to...5th grade level and simply nonprofessional...this likely explains why the business is struggling....I digress.

So...that pushes my life back another month. They're in violation of at least 4 points of the rental agreement right now, which I've let fly until now because I'm "nice"...or was "nice". Of course, since the courts are closed, there isn't a fucking thing I can do about anything right now, or probably for the next 6 months...so I'm at their mercy.

My summer is, for the 3rd year in a row...fucked. I'm not sure if my realtors will even deal with me after this, and I'm not sure if the market will still be any kind of good by the time they decide to GTFO.

I'd love to punch something, but I'd probably break my hand an catch COVID-19 at the ER.

GRRRRRRRRRRR.
 
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mash on it

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It gets better....all I had in writing was a text message stating that "June will be our last month". After the shitshow on friday, the wife called to see how things went...I was rather vague and simply asked for a signed letter...or even something that holds more water than a text, giving proper notice to terminate the rental agreement and vacate the property. Mind you, this woman is the business manager for the family's commercial flooring business.

I received this (names excluded for privacy)...

Looking at the realistic closing of our project & then relocating to Oklahoma and with the respect to all involved we will be out of this property completely by July 31, 2020.

If I wrote a somewhat official letter like that in any sort of business environment, I'd expect never to be engaged with again by whoever I wrote it to...5th grade level and simply nonprofessional...this likely explains why the business is struggling....I digress.

So...that pushes my life back another month. They're in violation of at least 4 points of the rental agreement right now, which I've let fly until now because I'm "nice"...or was "nice". Of course, since the courts are closed, there isn't a fucking thing I can do about anything right now, or probably for the next 6 months...so I'm at their mercy.

My summer is, for the 3rd year in a row...fucked. I'm not sure if my realtors will even deal with me after this, and I'm not sure if the market will still be any kind of good by the time they decide to GTFO.

I'd love to punch something, but I'd probably break my hand an catch COVID-19 at the ER.

GRRRRRRRRRRR.

That truly does suck.

Jewish lighting.

Win, win.

Dan'l
 

Meaney77

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This is great to hear, our tenants just gave notice and will be out in June. We want to list and sell but not totally sure how things will play out with everything going on these days.
 

NicPaus

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This is great to hear, our tenants just gave notice and will be out in June. We want to list and sell but not totally sure how things will play out with everything going on these days.
I met with customer Saturday. He has 2 tenants moving out June 1st and plans to sell both houses. Good time to sell while the market is still Hot. His issue is what properties to buy in a 1031. Found 2 local developments that ran out of funds part way through build i have realtor looking into.
 

ChumpChange

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I met with customer Saturday. He has 2 tenants moving out June 1st and plans to sell both houses. Good time to sell while the market is still Hot. His issue is what properties to buy in a 1031. Found 2 local developments that ran out of funds part way through build i have realtor looking into.

Good thing 1031s can be longer now so he can sit and hope there's a fall after his sale.
 
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