Something big is about to happen in the housing market

[Havasu blue label]

Ok no adjustable mortgage so are they a paper loans be smart with your money .

 

[hallett21]

Ok no adjustable mortgage so are they a paper loans be smart with your money .

Statement or question?


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[LargeOrangeFont]

Statement or question?


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Yes.

 

[BHC Vic]

Yes.

Orange man bad

 

[kurtis500]

There were. People all over were talking about it from 06 through 08.

We were talking about it long before that. I was referring to where the large financial organizations were warning about the coming crash band not just a few months or weeks prior.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

We were talking about it long before that. I was referring to where the large financial organizations were warning about the coming crash band not just a few months or weeks prior.

You mean Bear Sterns, Ameriquest, etc?

No financial organization is gonna announce anything to induce any panic, or hurt their bottom line, ever.

 

[lakemadness]

Maybe you can show me where then. Certainly there’s some articles in 05-06 by reputable organizations predicting the crash.

I dont know if there are articles. But there was a man who man a truck load of money by predicting it. Thats what the movie is about....

 

[hallett21]

Or real estate brokers, loan brokers, etc

I laughed at that one [emoji16]


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[c_land]

FOMC meeting was today. The Fed Committee will be changing.........


....... nothing in regards to their current policies. 0-.25% rates, continue current pace of MBS purchasing. On we go for another 2 months until the September meeting.

 

[kurtis500]

You mean Bear Sterns, Ameriquest, etc?

No financial organization is gonna announce anything to induce any panic, or hurt their bottom line, ever.

Exactly. Everyone knew something was coming but the financial institutions will never pump the brakes. Has that same feel to it now

 

[kurtis500]

I dont know if there are articles. But there was a man who man a truck load of money by predicting it. Thats what the movie is about....

I think most of us saw it coming. No financial institution would be willing to slow themselves down and admit there are warning signs. It feels a little like that era today. Just keep pumping out confidence and say they fixed the last problem. Like saying no more plane crashes because we fixed the problem that crashed the last one. All good, hop on!

 

[D19]

I got this email last night... I am so sick of this landlord/ tenant assistance stuff. The government needs to leave the free market alone. They create problems then try to create solutions all while stealing our money and taking away our rights.

​ ​ July 30, 2021​

Eviction Ban Set to Expire?​

The Biden Administration on Thursday said it would not attempt to unilaterally extend the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) national eviction moratorium, allowing it to expire on July 31. In a statement, the White House acknowledged a recent Supreme Court ruling on the issue, saying, “. . . the Supreme Court has made clear that this option is no longer available.” President Biden is now asking Congress to intervene and extend the ban. “NAR is prepared to oppose vigorously any unreasonable effort by Congress to extend the ban without assistance for small housing providers,” says Shannon McGahn, chief advocacy officer for NAR. “We have argued all along that the best solution for all parties is rental assistance for tenants in need paid directly to housing providers. Nearly half of all rental housing in America is a mom-and-pop operation, and these providers cannot continue to live in a state of financial hardship.” “With the economy improving, rental assistance now available in all 50 states, and millions of unfilled jobs, it is time to return the housing market to its former, healthy function,” McGahn says. The CDC ban has been in place since September 2020. It was first imposed by the Trump Administration and then extended multiple times by the Biden Administration. With many mom-and-pop housing providers facing financial ruin and unable to pay their bills or keep up their properties, NAR launched a massive advocacy effort last year to secure rental assistance for tenants. Nearly $50 billion was obtained through two pieces of legislation. As a result of subsequent eviction ban extensions, however, the Georgia and Alabama associations of REALTORS® and two housing providers—with NAR’s help—filed a lawsuit in federal court challenging the CDC’s authority to impose the ban. In May, U.S. District Court Judge for the District of Columbia Dabney Friedrich ruled that the CDC exceeded its authority and sided with small housing providers, overturning the ban. The ruling was put on hold pending appeal. The Georgia and Alabama associations appealed the stay to the D.C. Circuit Court; after their appeal was denied, the associations asked the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene and immediately end the eviction ban. In June, a majority of the U.S. Supreme Court agreed that the CDC exceeded its authority with the ban. Four Justices wanted to end it immediately. A fifth justice said explicitly the CDC exceeded its authority but allowed the ban to stay in effect a few more weeks to keep an orderly transition and provide more time for rental assistance distribution. “With NAR's support, the Alabama and Georgia REALTORS® have achieved a tremendous victory for property rights that will reverberate far into the future,” McGahn says. “The Administration has now officially said any future national eviction ban would need to go through Congress.” Tenants are now eligible for up to a year-and-a-half of back and future rent. ​

 

[D19]

Big government can keep sweeping the ever growing mound of dirt under the carpet. But eventually, the carpet will be too small to cover it.

Yep. The truth is that they want to fail. They are not stupid, they are being strategically reckless and intrusive, because they need us too fail in order for their globalist agenda to take over.

Our politicians are not Americans. They are globalists who bow to the UN, not the constitution.

 

[HB2Havasu]

The unemployment rate in October of 2006 was 4.4%
June of 2021 it was 5.9%

Before we sold our house last month, everyone on our street except two had refinanced and pulled cash out. Sounds a bit like 2004-07 to me.
No one knows for certain. We are all going to make decisions based on the best knowledge we have at the time. We chose to cash out and wait. Perhaps we made a mistake. Time will tell. But all I know is I've seen this movie before. It doesn't end well for those with a lot of debt.

Curious. I’ve been thinking about doing the same. What are you doing to avoid paying taxes on the gains?

 

[Havasu blue label]

I sent letters to my renters in both states that a remodel will take place in sept will need to vacate the unit for 60 days plus remove all personal belongings signed.

 

[angiebaby]

Curious. I’ve been thinking about doing the same. What are you doing to avoid paying taxes on the gains?

We lived in it for 6 years. We didn't profit more than $500K.

 

[Paradox]

The unemployment rate in October of 2006 was 4.4%
June of 2021 it was 5.9%

Before we sold our house last month, everyone on our street except two had refinanced and pulled cash out. Sounds a bit like 2004-07 to me.
No one knows for certain. We are all going to make decisions based on the best knowledge we have at the time. We chose to cash out and wait. Perhaps we made a mistake. Time will tell. But all I know is I've seen this movie before. It doesn't end well for those with a lot of debt.

Just reading through this thread and your posts caught my eye..

You cashed out last June and may have left a few dollars on the table but, now in January it probably isn't too bad. Any regrets?

We’re in a similar situation. We will be retiring in less than 4 years (maybe sooner) and will be moving to the Havasu house full time. We have no interest in managing a rental in Cali (at that point) and will be completely divesting ourself’s from it. We likewise qualify for a large tax free cash out.

The thought is that the real estate market will take a downward turn (the severity of which remains to be seen), probably between this year and our retirement time. Further, there is no guarantee that the tax break won’t be repealed, particularly in light of Newscum and Biden holding office.

As a result, we are seriously considering doing the same thing, likely listing in May to hit the summer season.

Once sold, we’d rent until we left the state.

Gotta say, it’s a nerve racking discussion and decision. We’ve been in this house since 2004 and raised our kids here.

 

[Havasu blue label]

The first five is yours you should have a lot of losses it can be brought down to about 20 percent capital gains

 

[Havasu blue label]

If your self employed maybe even less open a different dept

 

[Paradox]

The first five is yours you should have a lot of losses it can be brought down to about 20 percent capital gains

We’re floating not too far above it. Still owe a few dollars. It’s definitely manageable. Although I don’t do it for a living, I hold a Cali Brokers License and will be able to offset some there as well.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Marketing just got very expensive

 

[Flying_Lavey]

If California doesn't start giving some exceptions for some of their Title 24 compliance requirements, construction is going to come to a screeching halt.

There are almost NO electronically controlled motors available anywhere and just about EVERYTHING with a motor installed in a building has to have an ECM per Title 24. A/C equipment and exhaust fans are already 6 months out if they aren't a stock item. If that happens.... watch that unemployment grow.

Again, at least in California.

 

[Paradox]

If California doesn't start giving some exceptions for some of their Title 24 compliance requirements, construction is going to come to a screeching halt.

There are almost NO electronically controlled motors available anywhere and just about EVERYTHING with a motor installed in a building has to have an ECM per Title 24. A/C equipment and exhaust fans are already 6 months out if they aren't a stock item. If that happens.... watch that unemployment grow.

Again, at least in California.

I’m working a program where a 15% savings over Title 24 is required. It’s been a challenge for sure.

 

[Flying_Lavey]

I’m working a program where a 15% savings over Title 24 is required. It’s been a challenge for sure.

Jesus. Talk about stepping over a dollar to pick-up a dime.....

Good luck getting any of the ultra high efficiency equipment and materials.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Just reading through this thread and your posts caught my eye..

You cashed out last June and may have left a few dollars on the table but, now in January it probably isn't too bad. Any regrets?

We’re in a similar situation. We will be retiring in less than 4 years (maybe sooner) and will be moving to the Havasu house full time. We have no interest in managing a rental in Cali (at that point) and will be completely divesting ourself’s from it. We likewise qualify for a large tax free cash out.

The thought is that the real estate market will take a downward turn (the severity of which remains to be seen), probably between this year and our retirement time. Further, there is no guarantee that the tax break won’t be repealed, particularly in light of Newscum and Biden holding office.

As a result, we are seriously considering doing the same thing, likely listing in May to hit the summer season.

Once sold, we’d rent until we left the state.

Gotta say, it’s a nerve racking discussion and decision. We’ve been in this house since 2004 and raised our kids here.

I'll give you my reply, perhaps @angiebaby will add her thoughts separately.

We may have left a few dollars on the table, but I don't think much. The house sold in the middle of the bidding war FOMO craze, so I think we timed it pretty well.

I don't think everyone is aligned on what a housing crash will be defined as. I also think it will take time to see a significant price drop. In my mind, if we saw 15%-20% that would be significant. I also think it will be influenced by region. Inventory will continue to be challenged as money tightens, which may prevent a meaningful price drop. However, I think we will find ourselves with an opportunity for the market to shift from seller to buyer and negotiations will return. This would be a positive as I see it for getting back into real estate if we find the right property. I may just try and build if we don't see something we can work with. I am not sure if seasonality is influencing housing prices in the locations we are looking, or if we are seeing the beginning of a correction?

There is a psychological negative we are working through with being "Homeless" for the first time in almost 30 years. We are enjoying our lifestyle choice, but in the back of our minds, there is a fear of missing the protection of a home. That being said, this exercise is resetting our mindsets in a positive way. We need a whole lot fewer square feet to be happy, way less stuff to fill it and we are learning the benefits of community. I don't miss mowing grass, and I still have handyman chores to keep me busy when we are not recreating. Any negative thoughts I previously had of living in a trailer park have been reset. Granted we are currently living at the Islander, so I am sure not all trailer parks measure up.

We could have made a terrible mistake, who knows? But as Angie said, we feel like we have seen this movie before and we wanted to take advantage of the opportunity to position ourselves for a better retirement. Either way, we planned for a two-year break from homeownership and so far we are enjoying it. Worst case we took out a loan on our golden years for some experiences we can enjoy while we are still upwardly mobile and not confined to a rocking chair. I've not been one to sacrifice life experiences in the hope that someday I could retire with plenty of money, so if we have to eat cat food so be it. I would rather enjoy life as best I can each day and let the chips fall where they may when I am old and broken.

Our elderly family members tell us we are making the right choices, and our Islander neighbors who are 15-20 years older agree. Enjoy life while you can because age will limit your activities no matter how much money you have in the bank.

 

[Your ad here]

The unemployment rate in October of 2006 was 4.4%
June of 2021 it was 5.9%

Before we sold our house last month, everyone on our street except two had refinanced and pulled cash out. Sounds a bit like 2004-07 to me.
No one knows for certain. We are all going to make decisions based on the best knowledge we have at the time. We chose to cash out and wait. Perhaps we made a mistake. Time will tell. But all I know is I've seen this movie before. It doesn't end well for those with a lot of debt.

I thought back in 04-07 people that pulled money also had adjustable rate mortgages or balloon payments. They were approved for the loans even though they couldn't afford it nor did they adjust their budget for an interest rate change or save for a balloon payment and just didn't have the money so they walked away.
In today's times it seems everyone that is refinancing and pulling money are getting a better fixed interest rate and their payment is within $100 of their old one. Only downside is they are resetting their loan back to 30 years.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Wait...wait....wait........this thread is 6 months old. I thought the end of forbearances and the foreclosure moratorium was going to crash the market??

 

[Orange Juice]

Phoenix market is still going crazy. it’s becoming the new Dubai of the world deserts.

 

[riverroyal]

Our house has gone up 65% in 1 year. Neighbor is in escrow this week
We have some big life changing options on the plate right now.
I thought we reached the top 6 mobths ago, nope.
300k since then

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I thought back in 04-07 people that pulled money also had adjustable rate mortgages or balloon payments. They were approved for the loans even though they couldn't afford it nor did they adjust their budget for an interest rate change or save for a balloon payment and just didn't have the money so they walked away.
In today's times it seems everyone that is refinancing and pulling money are getting a better fixed interest rate and their payment is within $100 of their old one. Only downside is they are resetting their loan back to 30 years.

Can't speak broadly, but I can speak to a few neighbors in our old hood. They were playing pretty fast and loose with equity. Way more risk than I would be willing to take on.

 

[Rondog4405]

Our house has gone up 65% in 1 year. Neighbor is in escrow this week
We have some big life changing options on the plate right now.
I thought we reached the top 6 mobths ago, nope.
300k since then

Damm!!! Hell yeah!

 

[Havasu blue label]

Once they raise rates they don’t qualify . If any broker says different there lying to themselves here’s a good one we bought a condo in havasu for 108 in 2019 today the value is 249 and there selling havasu market is out of control be smart

 

[boatpi]

I am not in Phoenix, but new home construction is insane as well as new move ins. We distribute our patio cover material to that market, we cannot keep up with the demand from contractors. It is our #1 market.

 

[DLC]

On the local news San Diego KUSI this morning -

Brent Wilsey stated look for a market correction in 23 possibly in 2024!

current 30 yr fix loan average is 3.6 % later this year with the fed increases it will be over 4% and possibly 4.5% and that will affect purchase prices. He also said if your fairly new or a 1st time buyer to the housing market to wait a year to make the purchase.

 

[RVR SWPR]

Wait...wait....wait........this thread is 6 months old. I thought the end of forbearances and the foreclosure moratorium was going to crash the market??

Mayby you could consider posting up your opinion of activity in the housing market occasionally,like weekly or every couple of weeks. Seems you do not ever waver on opinion of the future months. Personally I do believe months not years Is the time factor regarding supply and demand. Really appreciate your confidence in your business.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Once they raise rates they don’t qualify . If any broker says different there lying to themselves here’s a good one we bought a condo in havasu for 108 in 2019 today the value is 249 and there selling havasu market is out of control be smart

Who doesn't qualify?

Mayby you could consider posting up your opinion of activity in the housing market occasionally,like weekly or every couple of weeks. Seems you do not ever waver on opinion of the future months. Personally I do believe months not years Is the time factor regarding supply and demand. Really appreciate your confidence in your business.

So what you are saying is that in "months" there will be a huge increase in supply and a complete loss of demand?

What will be the catalyst for that??

 

[boatpi]

There will not be any major market correction in most Southwestern areas. Simple reasons, cost a building materials, permit issues and rules, cost of labor. It is a no brainer. All no, or low income tax States will continue to prosper.

 

[boatpi]

It's A Seller's Market: SoCal's Housing Market Hit Record-High Last Month

Low inventory means it's a seller's market and experts blame a lack of new construction and current low mortgage rates.

losangeles.cbslocal.com

 

[530RL]

Once they raise rates they don’t qualify . If any broker says different there lying to themselves here’s a good one we bought a condo in havasu for 108 in 2019 today the value is 249 and there selling havasu market is out of control be smart

If rate increases are effective in slowing overall economic activity, supply shortages of labor and materials will be ameliorated, lowering inflation and as a result lowering rates back down somewhat.

A slow down in appreciation and activity would be good for the housing market, the supply chain and inflation. I’m not sure how to time when to sell and then when to re-buy perfectly. It’s better for me just to ride it out, unless my time horizon for a rest home is very short and I need the capital to pay the hospice nurse.

 

[zhandfull]

You almost can feel the slowdown in mortgage activity when the brokers have time to comment on the strength of the housing market.

 

[530RL]

You almost can feel the slowdown in mortgage activity when the brokers have time to comment on the strength of the housing market.

Refi is historically about 60 percent of the total mortgage market. With rates rising, that market will certainly dry up leaving volumes down.

 

[Looking Glass]

Wait...wait....wait........this thread is 6 months old. I thought the end of forbearances and the foreclosure moratorium was going to crash the market??

"Elections" Don't Matter!!

 

[Orange Juice]

Refi is historically about 60 percent of the total mortgage market. With rates rising, that market will certainly dry up leaving volumes down.

The cash buyers are still out in force in Phoenix, but it’s the new hot spot out west for second homes.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

You almost can feel the slowdown in mortgage activity when the brokers have time to comment on the strength of the housing market.

Yup, a few minutes to comment on a thread on a Sunday.........total slowdown over here.........lol

 

[Havasu blue label]

Ok yes there all second homes and yes those files will won’t be that high soon

 

[Your ad here]

I predict restaurants will go under before the housing market crashes. Just spent $56 for a sit down lunch today with the GF. No drinks and I won't be going back because the food was about a 6 out of 10 and I just can't spend that type of money. I have to cut out unaffordable cost and restaurants fall into that category. My mortgage is cheaper than what rent would be and I don't know if getting a fixed 2.99% interest rate will be attainable again. So I'll be walking away from spending money on restaurants but I won't be walking away from my fixed rate low house payment which is cheaper than rent.

 

[Havasu blue label]

What did you finance

 

[grumpy88]

I ag

I predict restaurants will go under before the housing market crashes. Just spent $56 for a sit down lunch today with the GF. No drinks and I won't be going back because the food was about a 6 out of 10 and I just can't spend that type of money. I have to cut out unaffordable cost and restaurants fall into that category. My mortgage is cheaper than what rent would be and I don't know if getting a fixed 2.99% interest rate will be attainable again. So I'll be walking away from spending money on restaurants but I won't be walking away from my fixed rate low house payment which is cheaper than rent.

I agree with you . Going out for food is the first cut for us . Poor service and bad food makes it easy to cut .

 

[just_floatin]

The outskirts of Phoenix continue to boom as well. I purchased this property in Pima county less than a year ago. I have been getting contacted weekly by mail with prospective buyers ready to pay cash. Sorry not for sale or rent. Correction or not, we like it.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The outskirts of Phoenix continue to boom as well. I purchased this property in Pima county less than a year ago. I have been getting contacted weekly by mail with prospective buyers ready to pay cash. Sorry not for sale or rent. Correction or not, we like it.
View attachment 1082550

Is it a rental or do you live there full time?

Getting hit up a couple times a week on our property as well