WELCOME TO RIVER DAVES PLACE

Stock Market, where’s the bottom?

MPHSystems

Hallett 240
Joined
Sep 10, 2021
Messages
1,812
Reaction score
3,831
I understand and adhere to the axiom “Time in market beats market timing, always” …. That said, I’d rather have a few fewer days/weeks of owning 1000 shares XYZ @$50 than a few more days/weeks of owning 500 shares XYZ @ $100.


Let’s say someone had a small cash position, when’s a good time to get deeper in VOO?

1652193218099.gif
 
Last edited:

LuauLounge

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 24, 2010
Messages
2,204
Reaction score
3,478
Most likely right now.......
Until some other great news comes out from our illustrious leaders.
 

OldSchoolBoats

No Bad Days
Joined
May 8, 2014
Messages
14,999
Reaction score
20,016
IMO we aren't close to a bottom in stocks yet. Don't try to catch a falling knife.

What you want to do is wait until the FED stops hiking rates and stops QT. When the first cut happens and QE is turned back on is when you want to start buying again.
 

dribble

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 25, 2008
Messages
3,192
Reaction score
4,081
Nobody knows. In November 2007 everyone in the know said we were at the bottom. Then came Jan- March 2008
 

farmo83

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 9, 2008
Messages
1,932
Reaction score
1,618
If CPI comes in over tomorrow the market will freak out.

If we start seeing an inflection downward on inflation I think we'll start to turn back to green throughout the 2nd half of the year.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2011
Messages
3,895
Reaction score
3,158
I think we have a ways to go. It's a bloodbath. I think SQQQ is the only good play with this president, Ukraine, mid-terms, etc.
 

nameisbond

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 1, 2017
Messages
5,198
Reaction score
3,434
The current dire market situation is totally the mistake of the Federal Reserve and the Biden Administration. Chairman Powell has acknowledged that the only way to stop inflation is to increase interest rates, and he is stalling due to his cowardice. The Pres. and multiple Congressmen have also put pressure on Powell not to raise interest rates. Powell is true to form playing the cowardly lion.

The market reaction is simple. If interest rates are not raised, inflation will rise, a very negative factor for the stock market. The stock market selling now is just to get ahead of the curve since inflation unchecked will force interest rates higher anyway and damage the stock market not far down the road. It is almost impossible to fix the current situation because interest rates will rise in any event and inflation is now baked in.
 

TPC

Wrenching Dad
Joined
Sep 20, 2007
Messages
28,046
Reaction score
17,420
Stock Market in the upcoming recession?:
You can wait for it to bottom but buy some that's somewhat recession resistant. Not recession proof, but may fare well.

I like:
Ford.
The F150 electric Lightning is priced right with excellent features, colossal, astronomical, stupendous 90 AMP home charging and it's built at a dedicated factory.

Tesla.
The new Tesla 4680 battery will go into a much cheaper model that will keep Tesla on top and on the rise while dealing with increased competition.
If Tesla get the manganese-based cathode battery perfected that'll also be a HUGE jump on the competition - and it looks promising.

Hubbell, Square D, Eaton, Leviton, Paneltronics are elect panel service mfg's supplying new and refit homes of the rising elect vehicle market buyers and commercial applications. They are damn near sold out.

Avoid airlines as usual it'll only get worse for them. Hotels fate usually rolls with Airlines.

Dark horse is Apple. Could do well,, could take a crap. Their glory days may be behind us.

A distant dark horse may be 3M.
New EV solid state batteries are reliant on being super flat stratifications.
3M holds that technology, 3M is a flat products MFG. Without 3M we wouldn't have seen the CD/DVD get perfected so soon if at all.
But then again 3M is stupid in spite of their successes and Panasonic, Tesla and GM want to keep this tech in house.
 
Last edited:

Mack

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 3, 2019
Messages
50
Reaction score
89
Before you jump on this first ford electric truck check who makes the batteries and research the antitrust lawsuit they lost. 4 years of batteries for ford from this company. Next electric ford truck is going to have ford made batteries at a ford plant. This would be a safer bet than this first truck.
 

MPHSystems

Hallett 240
Joined
Sep 10, 2021
Messages
1,812
Reaction score
3,831
Stock Market in the upcoming recession?:
You can wait for it to bottom but buy some that's somewhat recession resistant. Not recession proof, but may fare well.

I like Ford.
The F150 electric Lightning is priced right with excellent features, colossal, astronomical, stupendous 90 AMP home charging and it's built at a dedicated factory.

The new Tesla 4680 battery will go into a much cheaper model that will keep Tesla on top and on the rise while dealing with increased competition.
If Tesla get the manganese-based cathode battery perfected that'll also be a HUGE jump on the competition - and it looks promising.

Hubbell, Square D, Eaton, Leviton, Paneltronics are elect panel service mfg's supplying new and refit homes of the rising elect vehicle market buyers and commercial applications. They are damn near sold out.

Avoid airlines as usual it'll only get worse for them. Hotels fate usually rolls with Airlines.

Dark horse is Apple. Could do well,, could take a crap. Their glory days may be behind us.
I’m already deep enough into TSLA, I bought at $389. IMO it is grossly overvalued. But I’mup considerably on it so I’m not complaining.


I don’t have much money so I have to make it count.


I’m A EC, done a few EV charger installs. Most don’t require a sub panel or service upgrade. Probably 1/2 of PV installs don’t require a service upgrade. Square D, Siemens and Eaton have been having supply chain issues for many years. IMO, it’s poor business rather than EV demand that’s driving that.

F possibly but I’m over-positioned In individual positions.

I was expecting a bigger impact from inflation, I’m heavy, about 13% into NEM and EGO. I still think inflation is going to help those a lot.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TPC

MPHSystems

Hallett 240
Joined
Sep 10, 2021
Messages
1,812
Reaction score
3,831
I think we have a ways to go. It's a bloodbath. I think SQQQ is the only good play with this president, Ukraine, mid-terms, etc.
Yea, trying to avoid the suckers bears. I have more holes in my hands than Jesus from the knives I’ve caught.
 

pronstar

President, Dallas Chapter
Joined
Aug 5, 2009
Messages
31,817
Reaction score
33,319
Historically, cumulative effect of the Fed dumping $100B/month from its balance sheet is going to cause a lot more volatility in the coming months.

 

HTMike

OG
Joined
Jul 27, 2008
Messages
597
Reaction score
907
Its going to fall for the rest of the year. The market is going to crater hard. Wait until businesses start to go under and people can't make boat/car/jet ski payments. We haven't even begun to feel pain yet !
 

MPHSystems

Hallett 240
Joined
Sep 10, 2021
Messages
1,812
Reaction score
3,831
Inflation will continue to rise and that will kill the stock market. There is more room to fall!
IMO we aren't close to a bottom in stocks yet. Don't try to catch a falling knife.

What you want to do is wait until the FED stops hiking rates and stops QT. When the first cut happens and QE is turned back on is when you want to start buying again.
This is my thinking as well
 

HTMike

OG
Joined
Jul 27, 2008
Messages
597
Reaction score
907
Interest rates are going up... markets will continue to go down.... the days of free / cheap capital are over for a while.

Look around.... what truly good news are you seeing?

The days of " free money " are over. Its going to be very interesting to see which businesses will survive this next go around because a lot of people feel safe when they likely are not.
 

TPC

Wrenching Dad
Joined
Sep 20, 2007
Messages
28,046
Reaction score
17,420
I’m already deep enough into TSLA, I bought at $389. IMO it is grossly overvalued. But I’mup considerably on it so I’m not complaining.


I don’t have much money so I have to make it count.


I’m A EC, done a few EV charger installs. Most don’t require a sub panel or service upgrade. Probably 1/2 of PV installs don’t require a service upgrade. Square D, Siemens and Eaton have been having supply chain issues for many years. IMO, it’s poor business rather than EV demand that’s driving that.

F possibly but I’m over-positioned In individual positions.

I was expecting a bigger impact from inflation, I’m heavy, about 13% into NEM and EGO. I still think inflation is going to help those a lot.
Can't get hurt if you don't sell. Musk isn't standing still, he looks to the future.
 

Orange Juice

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 2, 2017
Messages
1,072
Reaction score
924
Inflation will be around for a few years. The supply chain shortage outlook is at least 2024.
Interest rates will try to keep inflation under control, but with fewer product available, will drive up costs.

If you’ve lived through the 1970’s, the future becomes more clear. I’m expecting fuel prices to double over the next 5 years ($10 a gallon). Farmland prices will double. And interest rates will top out at 10%. Stock picking is going to be important….look for more automation, and less reliance on labor.

I also see “more” massive infrastructure failures, at all levels. Someone is going to pay to replace all those 50-75 y/o steel water lines, hidden under our road ways. I’m expecting increase taxes to cover those costs, especially in rural areas.

If your not paying attention, it’s going to hit you like a ton of bricks, just like it has buying a replacement truck this year, or a home.
 

MPHSystems

Hallett 240
Joined
Sep 10, 2021
Messages
1,812
Reaction score
3,831
Can't get hurt if you don't sell. Musk isn't standing still, he looks to the future.
Yea, you also can’t buy anything with the money if you don’t sell either LOL
 

shintoooo

I'm Blessed
Joined
Oct 22, 2009
Messages
24,401
Reaction score
41,017
There’s going to be a lot more pain for a while. I don’t suggest getting into the market at all right now. Could go down another 20-30%.

1652240907767.png


 

MPHSystems

Hallett 240
Joined
Sep 10, 2021
Messages
1,812
Reaction score
3,831

Mandelon

Coffee makes me poop.
Joined
Sep 24, 2007
Messages
12,479
Reaction score
14,074
Inflation will be around for a few years. The supply chain shortage outlook is at least 2024.
Interest rates will try to keep inflation under control, but with fewer product available, will drive up costs.

If you’ve lived through the 1970’s, the future becomes more clear. I’m expecting fuel prices to double over the next 5 years ($10 a gallon). Farmland prices will double. And interest rates will top out at 10%. Stock picking is going to be important….look for more automation, and less reliance on labor.

I also see “more” massive infrastructure failures, at all levels. Someone is going to pay to replace all those 50-75 y/o steel water lines, hidden under our road ways. I’m expecting increase taxes to cover those costs, especially in rural areas.

If your not paying attention, it’s going to hit you like a ton of bricks, just like it has buying a replacement truck this year, or a home.

Excellent point. There's a shit ton of infrastructure that needs replacement. The government has already spent way more than we can pay back. It's gonna be interesting.
 

shintoooo

I'm Blessed
Joined
Oct 22, 2009
Messages
24,401
Reaction score
41,017
If it gets bad, people are going to start jumping off buildings. I remember in 2001, lots of stock brokers jumped off buildings after they lost it all. There was a couple that worked in my building back then and they went up the top floor of the parking structure and jumped. They had lost all their investments and retirement in the 2001 dot com bust. Very sad.
 

zhandfull

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 20, 2008
Messages
1,787
Reaction score
1,576
Where’s the bottom?

Remember the disclaimer on the broker ads. Something along the lines of stocks are not FDIC insured and you can loose all of your money!

Can happen in penny stocks, tech or any stock. As an example, The GM bankruptcy wiped out many stock holders in the last big stock market cycle.
 

nganga

This ain't all folks! Skater368
Joined
Oct 30, 2010
Messages
8,774
Reaction score
17,463
To Shintoo’s point - there are large multi-billion dollar funds bleeding badly and they are loaded to the gunnels with “wizards of smart”.

They can’t time the market, yet some RDP day traders can?

The only safe place right now is on the sidelines.

Metals aren’t even doing what they typically do in inflationary times
 

HB2Havasu

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 4, 2015
Messages
4,021
Reaction score
8,324
While Jimmy Carter 2.0 is still in office the stock market could go back to Obama Day prices of 12K-15K. I’ve been telling my friends for the last year to get out of the stock market. There is no true bottom when the Socialists who are now in power are calling the shots. They want the markets to crash so they can start their Great Reset! (Re: Communism)
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2011
Messages
3,895
Reaction score
3,158
To Shintoo’s point - there are large multi-billion dollar funds bleeding badly and they are loaded to the gunnels with “wizards of smart”.

They can’t time the market, yet some RDP day traders can?

The only safe place right now is on the sidelines.

Metals aren’t even doing what they typically do in inflationary times

I've only gotten in trouble when I held stocks overnight. Day Trading is the way to go. In and Out. However, right now I think holding SQQQ is the way to go.
 

MPHSystems

Hallett 240
Joined
Sep 10, 2021
Messages
1,812
Reaction score
3,831
I've only gotten in trouble when I held stocks overnight. Day Trading is the way to go. In and Out. However, right now I think holding SQQQ is the way to go.
I only get in trouble using get rich quick stock tips.

What is SQQQ? Why is it bucking the market so hard?
 

pronstar

President, Dallas Chapter
Joined
Aug 5, 2009
Messages
31,817
Reaction score
33,319
If it gets bad, people are going to start jumping off buildings. I remember in 2001, lots of stock brokers jumped off buildings after they lost it all. There was a couple that worked in my building back then and they went up the top floor of the parking structure and jumped. They had lost all their investments and retirement in the 2001 dot com bust. Very sad.

Happened a lot at the top of the Disneyland parking lots, we’ve been told by folks who worked there.

They called them Tinkerbells over the radio, to help prevent the public from hearing about them.

Disneyland is very good at hiding deaths on their properties.
 

shintoooo

I'm Blessed
Joined
Oct 22, 2009
Messages
24,401
Reaction score
41,017
Curious why that would be the trigger?

Just a support level. Could bounce back a little but will go down more after that level is broken which it was today.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DWC

pronstar

President, Dallas Chapter
Joined
Aug 5, 2009
Messages
31,817
Reaction score
33,319
I think there’s going to be some Bitcoin opportunities as long as it keeps tracking with the nasdaq…tech stocks are getting hit hard and it’ll continue.
 
Top