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Surging Home Values

HNL2LHC

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Maybe prices in Hawaii didn’t go up much but it certainly not a bargain or dropping just yet.

 

Gramps

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all of a sudden prices are going south in my area........down 10% - 15% in the last couple of weeks
 

Ace in the Hole

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No not at all. When an island state pretty much locks you out from moving there over the last 18 months and locks you down while there, why would demand for houses rise?
I doubt that those numbers are accurate for Hawaii...they must be doing state wide not Oahu only. Big island etc is stable but small numbers... Oahu is doing double digit increases and a SFH is now over a million average. https://www.locationshawaii.com/learn/market-reports/oahu-real-estate-report/

Last year this month was $844,750 average... Today is $1,050,000. Thats not in line with that chart.

A ton of people left hawaii over the last year...mostly my generation. The foreign buyers (read as Chinese/korean/Japanese) buy everything they can get a hold of....over market. Id have to google it but the stat is like 70% of new sales are not residents of the state of hawaii.

two of my cousins moved to the big island in 2021....hard to justify Oahu when they can buy a 3/2 on 5 acres under 300..
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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I doubt that those numbers are accurate for Hawaii...they must be doing state wide not Oahu only. Big island etc is stable but small numbers... Oahu is doing double digit increases and a SFH is now over a million average. https://www.locationshawaii.com/learn/market-reports/oahu-real-estate-report/

Last year this month was $844,750 average... Today is $1,050,000. Thats not in line with that chart.

A ton of people left hawaii over the last year...mostly my generation. The foreign buyers (read as Chinese/korean/Japanese) buy everything they can get a hold of....over market. Id have to google it but the stat is like 70% of new sales are not residents of the state of hawaii.

two of my cousins moved to the big island in 2021....hard to justify Oahu when they can buy a 3/2 on 5 acres under 300..
Agreed, the popular areas of everywhere are up higher than the state averages. Boise ID is up over 40%.
 

TCHB

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Inventories going up as we speak, affordability index very low, price reductions starting to hit as homes staying on the market longer. The time line is different in the US but I think it will drop 15 to 20%. In May Havasu had around 47 homes for sale with zero price reductions. Now it is in the hundreds with price reductions all over the place.
 

OldSchoolBoats

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Inventories going up as we speak, affordability index very low, price reductions starting to hit as homes staying on the market longer. The time line is different in the US but I think it will drop 15 to 20%. In May Havasu had around 47 homes for sale with zero price reductions. Now it is in the hundreds with price reductions all over the place.
Happens every year at this time, nothing new. Tons of buyers out there that just got fatigued with multiple offer situations. So 15% - 20% (which is highly unlikely)....Just brings prices back to 2020 prices.

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185EZ

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St George/south UT? I've been nothing that. I think it is the panic buying receding.
and getting priced out of the market
we were close to pulling the plug on our recent purchase but we had the resources and said you only live once
a lot of people can't afford the real estate market now
 

Gonefishin5555

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The market is just taking a breather. Inflation, Cheap money and people with a shit ton of equity in their primary residence will keep the ball rolling. I don't think all sellers are serious. Some are listing their places for prices that they say if some idiot will give me this much I will sell and I think some of those deals won't happen now.
 

HB2Havasu

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Inventories going up as we speak, affordability index very low, price reductions starting to hit as homes staying on the market longer. The time line is different in the US but I think it will drop 15 to 20%. In May Havasu had around 47 homes for sale with zero price reductions. Now it is in the hundreds with price reductions all over the place.
That is more the Havasu “average” than a glut of inventory, lol.
 

riverroyal

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$266 a sq ft is still a good price when you consider coastal San Diego is 500 to 800.
biggest issue is most houses like this are too big for the people leaving SoCal
 

Don Johnson

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How much have new home building costs gone up.
a lot. We are just now finishing the grading and tree removal on our lots to be ready to start building in April 2022. Our current bid has us at $440 a sq ft for the main home, $250 a sq ft for the ADU and $150 a sq ft for the shop. Hoping it comes down a little between now and April but if not oh well, nothing is stopping us from making this move.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Then!

On the "Other Side"

Everything Is Just Fine, just a little "Correction"

Is that an Echo from the last Bump in the road?

When you are "All In" what else can you do? Keep Positive.:oops:
House prices go up and down. Look at post 28. While people have been waiting for a crash the last 4 years, housing in many areas has doubled. We could have a 20% drop and be back 2019 prices, when people were complaining housing was too expensive and we were on the brink of a crash 😂.
 
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Sportin' Wood

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I have been watching North Idaho for the last year. Not a crash, but a flattening of he curve right now. Property is not disappearing at a lightning pace. That being said IMHO they still have a shortage of inventory and it is Fall. I have a half dozen properties I am watching, they are all priced way too high, they are not selling.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I have been watching North Idaho for the last year. Not a crash, but a flattening of he curve right now. Property is not disappearing at a lightning pace. That being said IMHO they still have a shortage of inventory and it is Fall. I have a half dozen properties I am watching, they are all priced way too high, they are not selling.
House across the street is overpriced and been on the market 60 days. It is owned by Zillow.
 

pronstar

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I’m curious to hear what folks think is going to cause a crash or major correction?

Low interest rates means home monthly payments are still historically affordable.

Demand far outstrips supply.

Home builders can’t come close to closing the supply gap.

Most homes in forbearance have equity.
Worst case, these homes are sold at market prices.

If 100% of homes in forbearance (1.75 million) hit the market, there would still be a supply shortage.

IMHO, the main realistic possibility that will cause a major correction, is rising interest rates…which would also crush the global economy.


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Done-it-again

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a lot. We are just now finishing the grading and tree removal on our lots to be ready to start building in April 2022. Our current bid has us at $440 a sq ft for the main home, $250 a sq ft for the ADU and $150 a sq ft for the shop. Hoping it comes down a little between now and April but if not oh well, nothing is stopping us from making this move.
Those prices including the land? Damn $440 sq ft.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I’m curious to hear what folks think is going to cause a crash or major correction?

Low interest rates means home monthly payments are still historically affordable.

Demand far outstrips supply.

Home builders can’t come close to closing the supply gap.

Most homes in forbearance have equity.
Worst case, these homes are sold at market prices.

If 100% of homes in forbearance (1.75 million) hit the market, there would still be a supply shortage.

IMHO, the main realistic possibility that will cause a major correction, is rising interest rates…which would also crush the global economy.


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Don’t bring your facts here. The gubmint is printing that money and in 6 months housing is gonna drop 80% randomly one day when you wake up.
 

mobldj

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daughter just bought a still being built house in banning for 390,000.1700 square feet with decent size yard but packed in close to houses left and right...............but its banning.lol
 
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Xtrmwakeboarder

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Down the street from my buddy in an area that I wouldn’t say is very nice. I was cracking up.
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Cdog

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The out flow of SoCal people is still happening in mass. Three families from the Temecula area that we camp with when we do Silverstrand trips are moving to Texas and Idaho right now. One is a former Demo seal team guy and the others are in LE. Sad to see them go but happy to see them happy and looking forward to their new found life in free America.

I think we have finally reached a point where the "good weather " doenst cut it anymore. While CA will always be an expensive place I think it's lost its allure for most traditional values Americans.

Peak boomer migration and retirement happens in 2024. They have money and assets to buy what they want at any price. The biggest variable I see is the Cap gains tax pedo joe is proposing. It's possible people will have a lot less than what they think they will net if his cap gains tax goes through.
 

Cdog

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Right?

It’s almost like you shouldn’t listen to them.
I back my comments with facts and statistics that support my argument.

It's not my fault 90% of you will fall for tits in a skirt sales lady that doesn't know her ass from a hole in a ground that up sells you on a house in BFE that you over paid for. I sure she appreciates it.
 
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