THE 2019 STOCK MARKET THREAD...and TCHB’s golf game

[GRADS]

Starts tomorrow....Place your bets!

 

[Classic Daycruiser]

18,500 by memorial day weekend.

Economy is good, profits not so much.

 

[GRADS]

Any guesses on tomorrow?

 

[Xring01]

Its truly a guess until we see whats going on overseas tomorrow AM.. so many things can impact it.

Guessing up 250... if we dont have any bad foriegn economy news...


If bad news, the. Down 250

 

[Ouderkirk]

Starts tomorrow....Place your bets!

I think the stock market will remain relatively flat. Won't go up much, won't go down much in the aggregate. There will be days where you will see 1000 point swings but the median will stay fairly even over time. Probably will stay around $23K + 1000.

The difference is policy now is aimed at Main Street, not Wall Street.

 

[RodnJen]

I think the stock market will remain relatively flat. Won't go up much, won't go down much in the aggregate. There will be days where you will see 1000 point swings but the median will stay fairly even over time. Probably will stay around $23K + 1000.

The difference is policy now is aimed at Main Street, not Wall Street.

How is policy helping Main Street?

 

[Classic Daycruiser]

Looking at the pre-markets, it should be down about 2-3% on Wednesday.

 

[Classic Daycruiser]

Policy is aimed at lowering business taxes, and those who want to sell stock at a profit. If you had a decent fund manager, he would have sold last summer, and you would be cash rich.

The only buyers are companies who want to take the company private.

 

[Xring01]

Chinas PMI index is 49.7, which is bad news. Anything below 50 means manufacturing in China has retracted...

As I mentioned in my post above. good news or bad news.. this is bad news... resulting in a down day.

High speed algorithms, computer trading really impacts this type of news.

Short the markets today...

 

[TCHB]

Day 1 Early here we go!!

 

[WhatExit?]

This thread is your way of taking pleasure in anything negative happening so you and your liberal progressive cronies can take joy in blaming Trump.

 

[TCHB]

This thread is your way of taking pleasure in anything negative happening so you and your liberal progressive cronies can take joy in blaming Trump.

Leadership

You get the credit or the blame. That is the way it is!

 

[MSum661]

A record outflow of selling at approx. $46 Billion was yanked back out the markets in early December alone, and the trend continues. Peeps locking in profits like a Boss.
The question should be....will they return anytime soon? Or will they rotate gains into other assets.

I see more looming downside.

 

[Xring01]

This thread is your way of taking pleasure in anything negative happening so you and your liberal progressive cronies can take joy in blaming Trump.

Thats one way of looking at it... Yes I disagree with the majority of what Grads believes in...

However, pretty much all of us would like to retire someday...
Most of us have retirement accounts

Therefore having a better idea of the market fundamentals, may help people make wiser, better informed Retirement Investments. Which could help some retire a bit earlier than originally planned.

Or worse. Those that dont care, may never be able to retire..

So I for one, appreciate threads like this. Regardless of Grads believes on Politics, his opinion on markets is appreciated by me. Even if I disagree with that opinion, because it makes me think of WHY some believe that way... Sometimes, I realize something that I had missed, or may not given enough thought to.. and make better decisions.

Which is the purpose of BLogs to begin with.. Sharing Ideas and information.

Take or leave it.. thats up to you. but you obviously chose read Grads thread to begin with.

 

[Xring01]

A record outflow of selling at approx. $46 Billion was yanked back out the markets in early December alone, and the trend continues. Peeps locking in profits like a Boss.
The question should be....will they return anytime soon? Or will they rotate gains into other assets.

I see more looming downside.

I read that article, and pulled a huge amount of my portfolio out of individual stocks. Its just sitting in the accounts as cash. I am trying to determine what to do with it...

I will most likely play with very small amounts on Short Positions on Day Trades, until I get a better idea of the overall direction.

I can argue for both sides (Bull & Bear) right now....

As I have mentioned in many threads in the past... I believe the biggest thing holding us back right now is the Chinese Tariffs.. I agree with Trump on why he has done it. But until China agrees to start playing fair in international markets, then our markets will suffer.

If China and U.S. come to an agreement on 50% of the issues, then the market will bounce up pretty fast... The longer this drags on, the further it erodes the global markets, and is slowly eroding our Bull Market.

Again, those are just my opinions, and I am not a Pro at this at all.. Hell I was up 30% plus in 2018, just to give it all back plus some.

 

[MSum661]

I read that article, and pulled a huge amount of my portfolio out of individual stocks. Its just sitting in the accounts as cash. I am trying to determine what to do with it...


As I have mentioned in many threads in the past... I believe the biggest thing holding us back right now is the Chinese Tariffs.. I agree with Trump on why he has done it. But until China agrees to start playing fair in international markets, then our markets will suffer.

I wholeheartedly agree with your opinion.

 

[DC-88]

18,000 by Labor Day. Grads, doesn't someone in you family work for Apple? Can you do us all a solid and post up later in the year or whenever the word travels that the higher ups are buying again ?

 

[GRADS]

18,000 by Labor Day. Grads, doesn't someone in you family work for Apple? Can you do us all a solid and post up later in the year or whenever the word travels that the higher ups are buying again ?

I bought some at $156 last week.

 

[Sandlord]

YTD, I'm up

 

[Classic Daycruiser]

YTD, I'm up

Enjoy the ride. 400 point trading ranging's appear to be the norm in 2019.

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

I'm thinking more like 20,000 in the next few months, but 18,000 would be great. The fed said they will raise rates two more times this year and I believe them now. There are some stock options which allow you to short the DOW or individual stocks. Could be a big money maker?!?

These are interesting times! I'm going to start printing out graphs of certain analysis' and make financial choices soon.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Looking at the pre-markets, it should be down about 2-3% on Wednesday.

You going for an average of 100% incorrect predictions in 2019?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Enjoy the ride. 400 point trading ranging's appear to be the norm in 2019.

As the aggregate markets increase you can expect larger day to day swings.

 

[Sandlord]

AAPL might just drag the market down tomorrow

 

[GRADS]

18,000 by Labor Day. Grads, doesn't someone in you family work for Apple? Can you do us all a solid and post up later in the year or whenever the word travels that the higher ups are buying again ?

I bought some at $156 last week.

Looks like I should of waited until tomorrow.

 

[GRADS]

And this will not be good for the entire market.....it's coming....

 

[spectras only]

Fuck the stock market. Our portfolio manager switched all my investments into cash, last year already.
My wife still riding some of hers though. She never flinched in 08 and it was a great decision then, will see when she'll pull out this time. Our investments were mainly canadian companies, yet, it always rode along the DJ, up and down.

 

[CoolCruzin]

Market closed on the plus side today

 

[Sandlord]

Market closed on the plus side today

futures dont look as good for tomorrow.

 

[78Southwind]

I bought some at $156 last week.

Hey Grads would you do me a solid and let me know when you sell all your Apple stock. At that point, I will know that capitulation has set in and it's time to buy.

 

[TCHB]

At this rate we are in trouble. Down another 500pts.

 

[Classic Daycruiser]

At this rate we are in trouble. Down another 500pts.

Define "we"...

 

[TCHB]

We as in overall stock market DJI.

 

[ChumpChange]

At this rate we are in trouble. Down another 500pts.

You can thank Apple for that one. Being such a large part, even a rally by every other stock would still drag the market down.

 

[Classic Daycruiser]

China! China! China!

 

[GRADS]

Apple is just the tip of the iceberg...

 

[DrunkenSailor]

The bad stuff that the stock market worried about is starting to happen

All of a sudden, the fundamentals aren’t looking as strong.

First it was Apple Inc.’s $5 billion revenue miss, hints of which lopped 30 percent from its stock over three months. Now it’s a closely watched gauge of U.S. factory activity, which dropped to a two-year low and missed every estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

What’s going on? Over and over in the fourth quarter, as the S&P 500 plunged 19.8 percent to the brink of a bear market, investors heard the same refrain: don’t panic, the economy, and corporate earnings, look strong.

In the last 24 hours, confidence in those assurances has taken a hit. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 600 points, or 2.6 percent, Thursday morning, while losses in the Nasdaq 100 spiraled toward 3 percent.

“The market is the wisdom of all investors -- it was discounting this type of news-flow with the sharp and violent sell-off we got in December,” Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell, said in a phone interview. “When it makes a big move, up or down, it’s telling you positive or negative things about future developments. The extreme move down was telling you we’d get this type of news-flow.”

All the bad news has put an abrupt halt to what had been the equity market’s best five-day run since 2011, a surge in the S&P 500 that reached 7.2 percent at yesterday’s high point. It’s reprising anxiety that left stocks within points of a bear market on Christmas Eve.

While plenty of real-time irritants existed to explain the fourth-quarter tumble -- tariff wars, the Federal Reserve, stretched valuations -- many bulls expressed bewilderment about the velocity of the plunge given estimates for growth. The U.S. economy is forecast to expand by 2.6 percent in 2019 and corporate earnings, while off this year’s torrid pace, are expected by analysts to rise 8.3 percent.

“The market is pricing in recession no matter what -- the market has priced it in,” said Jeff Carbone, managing partner at Cornerstone Wealth. “Now to what extent and when? That history hasn’t been written yet.”

For the first time during Donald Trump’s presidency, both economic statistics and sentiment indicators are missing analysts’ expectations. So-called hard data includes government and private-sector data on consumer spending, jobs, manufacturing and housing, while the soft stats looks to Fed factory surveys and consumer confidence polls.

Anything that suggests cracks in the earnings and macro foundation would go down poorly on Wall Street. That’s what was happening Thursday, as Apple’s outlook clouded profit forecasts at everything from semiconductor suppliers to electronics retailers, and the Institute for Supply Management index miss spurred speculation the economy isn’t doing as well as hoped.

For investors trying to read the tea leaves, two risks exist. One, that the market saw something the professional prognosticators didn’t. And two, that the losses piling up in financial markets become a kind of self-fulfilling prophesy, denting sentiment and impairing consumer and business confidence.

“It’s psychology of the market, which now is that growth is slowing and it almost feeds on itself,” Laurence Benedict, founder of Opportunistic Trader, said in a phone interview. “Businesses don’t want to spend because we potentially are going into a recession. Overall, the perception leads into reality. ”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...starting-to-happen/ar-BBRLnk9?ocid=spartandhp

 

[TCHB]

 

[RCDave]

The bad stuff that the stock market worried about is starting to happen

All of a sudden, the fundamentals aren’t looking as strong.

First it was Apple Inc.’s $5 billion revenue miss, hints of which lopped 30 percent from its stock over three months. Now it’s a closely watched gauge of U.S. factory activity, which dropped to a two-year low and missed every estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

What’s going on? Over and over in the fourth quarter, as the S&P 500 plunged 19.8 percent to the brink of a bear market, investors heard the same refrain: don’t panic, the economy, and corporate earnings, look strong.

In the last 24 hours, confidence in those assurances has taken a hit. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 600 points, or 2.6 percent, Thursday morning, while losses in the Nasdaq 100 spiraled toward 3 percent.

“The market is the wisdom of all investors -- it was discounting this type of news-flow with the sharp and violent sell-off we got in December,” Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell, said in a phone interview. “When it makes a big move, up or down, it’s telling you positive or negative things about future developments. The extreme move down was telling you we’d get this type of news-flow.”

All the bad news has put an abrupt halt to what had been the equity market’s best five-day run since 2011, a surge in the S&P 500 that reached 7.2 percent at yesterday’s high point. It’s reprising anxiety that left stocks within points of a bear market on Christmas Eve.

While plenty of real-time irritants existed to explain the fourth-quarter tumble -- tariff wars, the Federal Reserve, stretched valuations -- many bulls expressed bewilderment about the velocity of the plunge given estimates for growth. The U.S. economy is forecast to expand by 2.6 percent in 2019 and corporate earnings, while off this year’s torrid pace, are expected by analysts to rise 8.3 percent.

“The market is pricing in recession no matter what -- the market has priced it in,” said Jeff Carbone, managing partner at Cornerstone Wealth. “Now to what extent and when? That history hasn’t been written yet.”

For the first time during Donald Trump’s presidency, both economic statistics and sentiment indicators are missing analysts’ expectations. So-called hard data includes government and private-sector data on consumer spending, jobs, manufacturing and housing, while the soft stats looks to Fed factory surveys and consumer confidence polls.

Anything that suggests cracks in the earnings and macro foundation would go down poorly on Wall Street. That’s what was happening Thursday, as Apple’s outlook clouded profit forecasts at everything from semiconductor suppliers to electronics retailers, and the Institute for Supply Management index miss spurred speculation the economy isn’t doing as well as hoped.

For investors trying to read the tea leaves, two risks exist. One, that the market saw something the professional prognosticators didn’t. And two, that the losses piling up in financial markets become a kind of self-fulfilling prophesy, denting sentiment and impairing consumer and business confidence.

“It’s psychology of the market, which now is that growth is slowing and it almost feeds on itself,” Laurence Benedict, founder of Opportunistic Trader, said in a phone interview. “Businesses don’t want to spend because we potentially are going into a recession. Overall, the perception leads into reality. ”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...starting-to-happen/ar-BBRLnk9?ocid=spartandhp

Lol. In fewer words, it ramped up way past fundamentals. Helium has thin substance

 

[TCHB]

A better day!

 

[PaPaG]

I posted this on another threat, market is going to go up and down in larger swings and people are going to panic and others are going to be making BANK.......I am guessing market stays around 23k to 25k huge spread but that is today's market buy on the drops sell at the tops .....just announced this morning: 312,000 new jobs added in December, blew away the estimate of 165,000 that had been estimated, job market is booming, stock market is going to be swinging up and down in larger numbers so expect it and don't panic...Good stocks are booming, crappy hype over bought stocks are tanking and money is being made if FOLKS buy big ticket items as has always occurred during booming economies the ones that bought out of their financial comfort zone will be in trouble when markets and economy changes as it always does...the idiot chair of the fed has now said we are aware of the impact of the raises and hopefully he does not tank the economy again by raising the rate too quickly.

 

[j21black]

I posted this on another threat, market is going to go up and down in larger swings and people are going to panic and others are going to be making BANK.......I am guessing market stays around 23k to 25k huge spread but that is today's market buy on the drops sell at the tops .....just announced this morning: 312,000 new jobs added in December, blew away the estimate of 165,000 that had been estimated, job market is booming, stock market is going to be swinging up and down in larger numbers so expect it and don't panic...Good stocks are booming, crappy hype over bought stocks are tanking and money is being made if FOLKS buy big ticket items as has always occurred during booming economies the ones that bought out of their financial comfort zone will be in trouble when markets and economy changes as it always does...the idiot chair of the fed has now said we are aware of the impact of the raises and hopefully he does not tank the economy again by raising the rate too quickly.

Take the December jobs added with a grain out salt. See what happens in Jan. Lots of hiring for the Holiday season. You can't sell fresh cut Christmas trees all year. Well, maybe you can, you just won't be profitable 10 months out of the year.

 

[TCHB]

Not bad just keep it smooth.

 

[PaPaG]

Take the December jobs added with a grain out salt. See what happens in Jan. Lots of hiring for the Holiday season. You can't sell fresh cut Christmas trees all year. Well, maybe you can, you just won't be profitable 10 months out of the year.

I disagree, the hype of this selloff was nothing but fear, lets wait and see what January continues to bring...I for one LOVE THIS MARKET....job market is amazing, I have a dozen business associates that could hire 10-20 staff right now and pay top dollar in their fields but not enough qualified or able body candidates...housing drop has stopped, sales are slow but steady as long as Feds don't increase right away...they have to slow down the market a bit but they went way too far...lets have this conversation at the end of January and lets hope our economy is continuing to boom....

 

[TCHB]

Time for golf!

 

[Rajobigguy]

My portfolio has been a nice shade of green all week but I got to say that the way the market has been acting lately this much green makes me a little apprehensive. Hopefully my nervousness is unfounded.

 

[TCHB]

Let’s keep it slow and smooth.

 

[TCHB]

 

[GRADS]

The bottom line is we need to pay to have TCHB go golfing every day.

 

[TCHB]

The bottom line is we need to pay to have TCHB go golfing every day.

Thanks the wife and golfed today.