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This weeks RDP Real Estate Thread!!!

hallett21

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Just read an article saying some Economists are predicting a rise of 6.9% in Owner’s Equivalent Rent come 2023.

Current rate is roughly 2%







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LargeOrangeFont

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Just read an article saying some Economists are predicting a rise of 6.9% in Owner’s Equivalent Rent come 2023.

Current rate is roughly 2%







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All these people that paid higher prices for rental property, and the shortages in desirable areas are gonna drive up rents for sure.

The good thing about these equity firms purchasing up property is that the little guy and follow them up the pricing ladder.
 

lakemadness

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Duh. Values have increased. You either sell or jack the rents up to match the market value of the asset.
I’ve sold some of our rentals and I’ll be raising the rents on the others as leases come up for renewal. Bring it on!
 

hallett21

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All these people that paid higher prices for rental property, and the shortages in desirable areas are gonna drive up rents for sure.

The good thing about these equity firms purchasing up property is that the little guy and follow them up the pricing ladder.

If their prediction is correct (obviously a lot can happen between now and then) buying today will still be a win.


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Gonefishin5555

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I'm closing on a place in BHC in the next week. The one thing that caught my eye on my place was the rent estimate in Zillow was 2k/mo. I immediately thought it was way too high but its not something I pay particular attention to normally. But I'm not so sure its that far off there isn't much sfr available to rent right now so its at least $1700-1800 and we will see if price go up as winter approaches. Everyone leaving CA has to live somewhere so maybe its the side effect of that. Isn't rent inflation on the upswing in LHC right now?
 

grumpy88

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On the news over the weekend they said las vegas was the second highest rent increase in the country . I swear they said 20 percent .
 

Riverryder

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On the news over the weekend they said las vegas was the second highest rent increase in the country . I swear they said 20 percent .

I think vegas is gonna feel the fall the most we don’t have the economy to support the prices. I work in health care the second biggest industry in vegas. Doctors are having issues finding houses within reach…

Also I don’t think these havasu guys realize if mead drys out mohave does too and so does havasu… hahaha
 

jailbird141

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I think vegas is gonna feel the fall the most we don’t have the economy to support the prices. I work in health care the second biggest industry in vegas. Doctors are having issues finding houses within reach…

Also I don’t think these havasu guys realize if mead drys out mohave does too and so does havasu… hahaha

If Havasu dries up, I will keep my paid for boat tucked nicely in the garage and use the paid for Can-Ams all over that wide open desert until the biblical rains return and I can boat again! ;)
 

RodnJen

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Aren't rents driven by supply and demand, lots of factors going into each of those things? I get that if someone pays a high price for something, they will then want to charge more for their investment.

That is all fine but the market will only bear what the consumer is willing or able to pay.

I do see rents continuing to rise, and likely not slow down even when the real estate market cools. At what rate, no idea. I think that will be vastly different by region and even neighborhood.
 

Raffit78

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2.5-3 million not paying rent, 1.8-2.0 million in forbearance. That runs out between this month and October.

forbearance gives you three options. Renegotiate your loan with current lender, foreclose or sell your home.

I would be surprised if we don’t have some kind of a major shake up. Well, Ofcourse the government can print more money.

We shall see what the next few months does. Should be a good indicator.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Aren't rents driven by supply and demand, lots of factors going into each of those things? I get that if someone pays a high price for something, they will then want to charge more for their investment.

That is all fine but the market will only bear what the consumer is willing or able to pay.

I do see rents continuing to rise, and likely not slow down even when the real estate market cools. At what rate, no idea. I think that will be vastly different by region and even neighborhood.

Haven’t you heard? There are just not enough houses to go around, that is the only there are homeless people milling around CA.
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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2.5-3 million not paying rent, 1.8-2.0 million in forbearance. That runs out between this month and October.

forbearance gives you three options. Renegotiate your loan with current lender, foreclose or sell your home.

I would be surprised if we don’t have some kind of a major shake up. Well, Ofcourse the government can print more money.

We shall see what the next few months does. Should be a good indicator.

In the grand scheme of things those numbers, if accurate are nothing. There is going to be a refi/forbearance boom, and some will be evicted, some will stay. Who knows how it will shake up specifically.
 

baja-chris

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Probably will not be too many foreclosures from this with prices up. Kinda hard to be upside down.


2.5-3 million not paying rent, 1.8-2.0 million in forbearance. That runs out between this month and October.

forbearance gives you three options. Renegotiate your loan with current lender, foreclose or sell your home.

I would be surprised if we don’t have some kind of a major shake up. Well, Ofcourse the government can print more money.

We shall see what the next few months does. Should be a good indicator.
 

Raffit78

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In the grand scheme of things those numbers, if accurate are nothing. There is going to be a refi/forbearance boom, and some will be evicted, some will stay. Who knows how it will shake up specifically.

The last collapse was by 3 million homeowners. So in grand scheme of things, we are in a more volatile climate. 4 million homeowners in trouble. Our numbers are substantially higher then the last collapse and a more volatile environment with government buying up 120 billion a month in bonds with rates at near 0%.
 

Raffit78

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Probably will not be too many foreclosures from this with prices up. Kinda hard to be upside down.

I agree, but they are reporting 50% of owners in forbearance are going to sell, downsize, collect equity. If we see an influx of homes hitting the market at those numbers, I’m going to presume equities will not be where they are at.
 

DWC

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It’ll be interesting to see what the Dems next play is on rent control/evictions. Having the CDC push it through didn’t work. I’d be willing to bet it isn’t over.
 

D19

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I'm closing on a place in BHC in the next week. The one thing that caught my eye on my place was the rent estimate in Zillow was 2k/mo. I immediately thought it was way too high but its not something I pay particular attention to normally. But I'm not so sure its that far off there isn't much sfr available to rent right now so its at least $1700-1800 and we will see if price go up as winter approaches. Everyone leaving CA has to live somewhere so maybe its the side effect of that. Isn't rent inflation on the upswing in LHC right now?

The rents in BHC are climbing. I have BHC property in escrow now that is way undervalued on rent (long term tenant). A lot of people on fixed incomes being are priced out of So Cal and coming to BHC. After a small rehab we can raise rent significantly but remain conservative.

I think once the landlords can boot the non performing tenants, many will list and cash out. People are going to be scared to be landlords in the good ol "Land of the Free" after all this. This will defiantly have an effect on the market.

However, I would not be surprised if the government comes out with a program to buy land lords out of their delinquent mortgage. Nothing surprises me anymore. LOL
 

LargeOrangeFont

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The last collapse was by 3 million homeowners. So in grand scheme of things, we are in a more volatile climate. 4 million homeowners in trouble. Our numbers are substantially higher then the last collapse and a more volatile environment with government buying up 120 billion a month in bonds with rates at near 0%.

This is a completely different climate. most of those folks have equity (they didn’t buy in the last 18 months) and we already have programs in place to help some of those people. Forebearance was not even a thing last time. Rates are low, most of those people can potentially refi their way out of their situation.

Will the market cool? Yes.
 

Raffit78

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This is a completely different climate. most of those folks have equity (they didn’t buy in the last 18 months) and we already have programs in place to help some of those people. Forebearance was not even a thing last time. Rates are low, most of those people can potentially refi their way out of their situation.

Will the market cool? Yes.

I also feel almost everyone that could refinance to a lower rate did, pulled money out for various reasons.

the next few months will certainly give a better “tell” what the market is going to do. September and October is when forbearance runs out. Evictions are happening again.
 

pronstar

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We’ve been told that people leaving forbearance typically need to make 3 payments before lenders will consider a refi.

YMMV


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HB2Havasu

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2.5-3 million not paying rent, 1.8-2.0 million in forbearance. That runs out between this month and October.

forbearance gives you three options. Renegotiate your loan with current lender, foreclose or sell your home.

I would be surprised if we don’t have some kind of a major shake up. Well, Ofcourse the government can print more money.

We shall see what the next few months does. Should be a good indicator.

With the Democrats holding a majority in both the Legislative & Executive Branches, I foresee a government bailout before this forbearance nonsense ever ends. Unfortunately, they have the votes today to pass any budgetary law they desire, so they'll either be printing more money or raising more taxes. We already have a record homeless problem in this country. Kicking 2 or 3 million people to the curb would be a political disaster worse than Afghanistan already is for them. With the midterm elections a year away you can bank on nobody being evicted for failure to pay.

IMO - If inflation continues at the current rate I think 6.9% rent increase in 2 years is a pretty low estimate. My best guess is your going to see a 10%-20% increase by 2023 when landlords can start renewing leases and rental agreements. The only caveat would be if the economy shits the bed. Then all bets are off!
 

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pronstar

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IMO - If inflation continues at the current rate I think 6.9% rent increase in 2 years is a pretty low estimate. My best guess is your going to see a 10%-20% increase by 2023 when landlords can start renewing leases and rental agreements. The only caveat would be if the economy shits the bed. Then all bets are off!

The best hedge against inflation is a 30 year fixed mortgage at today’s low rates.

Not only is the interest lower than the rate of inflation, but the debt is basically inflated-away, using tomorrow’s worthless dollars to pay the loan you took out today.

“Refi till you die” (applies to real assets) is a thing [emoji106]


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HB2Havasu

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The best hedge against inflation is a 30 year fixed mortgage at today’s low rates

^^^ THIS ^^^
If your renting you should really consider buying something as if your hair was on fire!! Your rent today could easily double or triple in the next 10 years. A fixed rate mortgage will insure you have a stable and secure future.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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^^^ THIS ^^^
If your renting you should really consider buying something as if your hair was on fire!! Your rent today could easily double or triple in the next 10 years. A fixed rate mortgage will insure you have a stable and secure future.

"No I refuse to do that. The bottom is going to fall out of the market in 18 months and I will get a deal" - 2015 RDP Financial Armegeddonists.
 
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