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LargeOrangeFont

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Got a source for this info? And I'm asking about a direct source, not an article on CNN.



I'm only talking about one thing. Reality vs. what the media prints.

And I dunno about you, by my parents paid 20k for their first house. And yes, it was in SoCal! 😝

Inflation has been going on since the beginning of time. Not a whole lot of new under the sun.

CNN and ALL the liberal outlets say that a giant corporation(s) buying up houses is not and will not affect the housing market, and it is not a bad thing. Think about that for a minute Do you believe anything CNN says?. And then think about that people in government (Democrats) are calling for BlackRock to be labeled too big to fail. Think about how a $9T hedge fund can manipulate and influence the stock market. Now imagine how they can influence the housing and rental market if they own even a modest percentage of homes in this country.

Think about the fact that the democrat strategy for future prosperity is for you to rent everything and own nothing.



All of that is reality. Think about 15-20 years ago when there were just a few chinese nationals buying houses and everyone just shrugged their shoulders. Think about what that has turned into. Think about all the things Chinese companies own here, today. That is a different situation, but it raises the same eyebrows.

As far as your parents buying a $20K house, that is great. That was what maybe 2-3 years of their income? What house can you buy in So Cal today for 2-3 years of income? That is impossible for most young people. What if that level of "inaffordability" spreads across the country?
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I'm trying to wrap my head around our current market and my homes value. We purchased a new home in Eagle, ID 3.5 years ago for $550K. The home value is now $1.1 million. I believe the market is massively overinflated and will see a minimum of a 40% hit within the next 1-2 years. My idea is to cash out now and go rent for a year or two and then pay cash with my equity when the market crashes. We love our home and location and my wife is not particularly fond of my idea. What are your thought?

Everyone that did that in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 failed. We are cooling off from summer prices, but that happens in the fall/winter every year.

If there is going to be a drop, the biggest will likely be UT and ID. No way are we going to see a 40% drop, There are too many people with money on the sidelines that will buy into a 20% drop.
 
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grumpy88

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Good friend of mine owns not only a construction company, but a property management company AND an escrow office. Him and his wife know a bit about RE.

I asked him about property being bought by investment companies a few months ago. He told me...

Yeah, I've heard about all that, but haven't seen Any of it.

The media strikes again? Best to not believe Everything that you read.

🙄
Black rock owns roughly 80,000 homes as rentals . Seams like a sizeable number . To some that even might be FU money . Lol
 

c_land

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The market shrugged it off, its been to long in coming and too little anyway. Powell is sticking to the transitory party line signaling no rate increase anytime soon.

I only have 3 hard money loans out on 3 flips, but im still concerned its getting wierd

Party on Garth.

With the fed backing off, I guess we will see how rates trend when banks have to hold their own deals or package to sell to investors. Risk should be low of course since the banks are dealing with The Most Qualified Buyers of All Time...... 😂
 

badgas

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We have more mortgage debt as a nation than we did in 2008. People are biting off way more than they can chew again. Stated income loans are back. Debt to income ratios are being stretched again beyond the set limits. Many people have unrealistic budgets that are not sustainable.
 

Tom Slick

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Everyone that did that in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 failed. We are cooling off from summer prices, but that happens in the fall/winter every year.

If there is going to be a drop, the biggest will likely be UT and ID. No way are we going to see a 40% drop, There are too many people with money on the sidelines that will buy into a 20% drop.
Did you see the part of my post that I'm in Idaho and my home value literally doubled in the last 12 months. I agree with you, I think Idaho is going to get hit hard, as it's the most over inflated market in the country. That's why I'm questioning if I should take the equity while I can, hold onto to the cash for a bit and pay cash for another property after things adjust.
 

rivermobster

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Do your own search……. There’s hundred of articles about this. This is common knowledge. Just because you don’t think it’s true doesn’t make it untrue. The facts are the facts. Hedge funds are buying homes……. I question your source of info? USC graduates are not omnipotent……. I know that because that where I graduated from. Lol

I posted my sources.

If you would read my post carefully, you'll see my USC grad agrees with you and NOT my friends in the industry!

Just cause something is common knowledge, doesn't mean that it's right.

😝
 

rivermobster

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CNN and ALL the liberal outlets say that a giant corporation(s) buying up houses is not and will not affect the housing market, and it is not a bad thing. Think about that for a minute Do you believe anything CNN says?. And then think about that people in government (Democrats) are calling for BlackRock to be labeled too big to fail. Think about how a $9T hedge fund can manipulate and influence the stock market. Now imagine how they can influence the housing and rental market if they own even a modest percentage of homes in this country.

Think about the fact that the democrat strategy for future prosperity is for you to rent everything and own nothing.



All of that is reality. Think about 15-20 years ago when there were just a few chinese nationals buying houses and everyone just shrugged their shoulders. Think about what that has turned into. Think about all the things Chinese companies own here, today. That is a different situation, but it raises the same eyebrows.

As far as your parents buying a $20K house, that is great. That was what maybe 2-3 years of their income? What house can you buy in So Cal today for 2-3 years of income? That is impossible for most young people. What if that level of "inaffordability" spreads across the country?

I don't believe Anything I read in the media. And that includes any links you might post (to the media). 😝

And nobody says your first house has to be in a nice neighborhood. Didn't someone just post ol NGE just bought a house for 200k? With some creative financing, pretty much anymore can afford that!

Now you have me courious though about cost vs. income way back in the day. Might have to do some research on that. 👍🏼
 

CALEXODUS

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We bought in Havasu in July-2020, somewhat under market at $509K , the next door, exact same house just sold for $835k.....insane. Now we under paid a bit back then and the new owners grossly overpaid, cash by the way, but it shows how nutty the market is.
Ready to put our ex rental in Riverside on the market for $580K, paid $128K in 1998, tenants paid it off for us for the most part, only owe $25k. Point of this is I still run into people who insist on renting and never owning, long term even at these prices and interest rates it it is more likely that buying will pan out better than renting , LONG term.......
 

RiverDave

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If I buy another home within 2 years I avoid capital gains correct?

You can take I believe 500k in AZ tax free if your married.. but I don’t think you have two years. To 10/31 I believe it’s 6 months if I remember right?

Now you can build a new home and sell every two years and get tax benefits.. not sure what they are you’d have to ask a tax guy? That’s why all the builders move every two years though..
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Did you see the part of my post that I'm in Idaho and my home value literally doubled in the last 12 months. I agree with you, I think Idaho is going to get hit hard, as it's the most over inflated market in the country. That's why I'm questioning if I should take the equity while I can, hold onto to the cash for a bit and pay cash for another property after things adjust.

I just don't think we will see pre pandemic prices. No one really knows what is going to happen. Lets remind ourselves that it took 5-6 years to get from the 06 peak, to the late 2011/2012 bottom of market. Those that bought in 08 still took losses of another 20%.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I don't believe Anything I read in the media. And that includes any links you might post (to the media). 😝

And nobody says your first house has to be in a nice neighborhood. Didn't someone just post ol NGE just bought a house for 200k? With some creative financing, pretty much anymore can afford that!

Now you have me courious though about cost vs. income way back in the day. Might have to do some research on that. 👍🏼

Cost vs income is totally screwed in CA and most of the southwest. I'm the first to say not everyone can afford to live in CA, just like not everyone can afford to live in Newport Beach.

Median household income in CA is $78K. Median household income in Kansas is $59K.

If you want to talk median home prices - $177K in Kansas, Median home price in So Cal is $550K

This isn't NGE, doom and gloom, or the media, the above is simple stats, and simple math.

You don't have to believe me or the media, just connect the dots. All these companies were invested in leased commercial RE. They are betting work from home is the new normal. Just like with cars, people want what they cant afford, so they lease the BMW and rent the nice house with an office in the burbs, instead of working from the kitchen table in an apartment in the city. If you buy up enough of the market, you begin to control prices...Just like they do with stocks and funds.

When your kids or grandkids literally can only afford to rent, and will never own a home, don't come on here and shake yore fist about it is all I'm saying.
 

rivermobster

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Cost vs income is totally screwed in CA and most of the southwest. I'm the first to say not everyone can afford to live in CA, just like not everyone can afford to live in Newport Beach.

Median household income in CA is $78K. Median household income in Kansas is $59K.

If you want to talk median home prices - $177K in Kansas, Median home price in So Cal is $550K

This isn't NGE, doom and gloom, or the media, the above is simple stats, and simple math.

You don't have to believe me or the media, just connect the dots. All these companies were invested in leased commercial RE. They are betting work from home is the new normal. Just like with cars, people want what they cant afford, so they lease the BMW and rent the nice house with an office in the burbs, instead of working from the kitchen table in an apartment in the city. If you buy up enough of the market, you begin to control prices...Just like they do with stocks and funds.

When your kids or grandkids literally can only afford to rent, and will never own a home, don't come on here and shake yore fist about it is all I'm saying.

And none of this has has Anything to do with the original post!

You know as well as I do, people are payment shoppers. The price makes no difference. The interest rate makes no difference. It's ALL about the payment.

So once interest rates go up, then we will most likely see housing prices go down.

If people can't afford the payment in Any given aera (not Just SoCal), then no one is buying Anything!

Once all the retiree's settle into their new digs, then it's all about the local economy.

Some locations will survive and some won't. None of us have a crystal ball, but I'm thinking housing prices have a whole lot more to do with interest rates, than they do with Anything else.

Same as they always have.

As for my kids? My daughter is already researching buying rental/income property as her first purchase. Clearly she's a Whole lot smarter than me! 😝
 

Roosky01

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I’m more worried about the stock market than the housing market.
Based on yesterday's election results, they will shift the printer up into the high cog until the mid-terms. If there was ever a time to make it in the market it's going to be the next 12 months...IMO.
 

angiebaby

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Do your own search……. There’s hundred of articles about this. This is common knowledge. Just because you don’t think it’s true doesn’t make it untrue. The facts are the facts. Hedge funds are buying homes……. I question your source of info? USC graduates are not omnipotent……. I know that because that where I graduated from. Lol

If you want someone to buy your statistics, you really need to put your source in. If a person doesn't believe you, why would they go out of their way to change their own opinion? They already have an opinion, and you have failed to prove your point. Without a source, it's merely your opinion. I'm currently working on my master's thesis. I could put a lot of bullshit in it, or a lot of facts, and no sources. When I have to go present it to my advisors and they ask questions, would I just tell them to go do their own research? LOL

I'm not disagreeing with you regarding the hedge funds, it's easy to see that the end goal could be to have everyone be renters except the very wealthy. But if you want to prove your point to someone who is disagreeing with you, you may want to include some kind of reference to convince them it's not merely something you heard chatting with your neighbor, who's brother's girlfriend's cousin is an economist. 🙃
 

rivermobster

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If you want someone to buy your statistics, you really need to put your source in. If a person doesn't believe you, why would they go out of their way to change their own opinion? They already have an opinion, and you have failed to prove your point. Without a source, it's merely your opinion. I'm currently working on my master's thesis. I could put a lot of bullshit in it, or a lot of facts, and no sources. When I have to go present it to my advisors and they ask questions, would I just tell them to go do their own research? LOL

I'm not disagreeing with you regarding the hedge funds, it's easy to see that the end goal could be to have everyone be renters except the very wealthy. But if you want to prove your point to someone who is disagreeing with you, you may want to include some kind of reference to convince them it's not merely something you heard chatting with your neighbor, who's brother's girlfriend's cousin is an economist. 🙃

Or on a launch ramp. 😁

What are you getting your master's in? That's a whole lotta work right there. 👍🏼
 

Sportin' Wood

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Everyone that did that in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 failed. We are cooling off from summer prices, but that happens in the fall/winter every year.

If there is going to be a drop, the biggest will likely be UT and ID. No way are we going to see a 40% drop, There are too many people with money on the sidelines that will buy into a 20% drop.
Let's not forget that remote workers and anti-socialist leaving warm states will need to adjust to this thing called winter. A hard winter, which many locals predict, could free up some inventory. I am exceedingly pleased I'm running the AC today and enjoying warm Arizona temps, while my family is bundled up and already burning firewood.

A 40% drop would be incredible, but not likely with exception of a few cases of madness. A positive outcome IMHO for housing would be to settle about 10%-15% above pre-pandemic housing prices in areas that are now attractive due to remote work. Gone are the days that living in areas without stable job creation will yield affordable housing. There are too many smart digital workers who can take advantage of the opportunity and drive up costs.

My curiosity is what is becoming of the critical forbearance properties and how they might affect inventory levels? I've seen a few properties that have been obvious rentals that are hitting the market in need of rehab but still slightly above my perceived value.

Inventory levels are key for me, if prices fall, I suspect inventory will also and will have a calming effect of depreciation. If people can't realize a gain, they may sit on the property, we need an event that breaks people's ability to pay a mortgage and I don't think we have that as this time around without the adjustable interest loans. Best case we can time a dip.
 
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Cdog

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Zillow = Making up for loses in volume! Lmao!

Their plan was shit from the get go. They were trying to force us industry people out by buying the business on both ends. The results were predictable. Eat shit Zillow.
 
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