WHATS MORE UNBELIVABLE???

[petie6464]

not necessarily , you will be up against the fact that good renters will find it cheeper and easier to buy than to rent, I have a rental on my havasu property, and a new home with no mortgage.. I got in before this last big up swing in price... double edge sword again.... I could sell it all, but then more worthless cash in hand... I have a home in vegas.... went down from 900k to 200k and now back up to about 900k again... I made it through because I only paid 159k with out the upgrades in 1992, and worked hard to get it paid off... so no payment when the crash hit.....and i didn't really care what it was worth because my taxes dropped to next to nothing..... pretty sure that any place you put money right now is risky ... and sure to follow the crash if it happens... I'm real interested in options right now and coming up blank

Why not sell RE off and hold until prices drop and come back in? I guess the tax liability would be one good reason.

 

[2FORCEFULL]

Steve is 100% on, gold and lead....paper is for starting fires

I've always been aaaafraid of Gold because I don't undersand the market... lets say you buy a million in gold... where do you put it??? and what happens when the market crashes???? dosen't it drop the same????.. I know Ted binion had a bunker full of silver out in pahrump,..

 

[2FORCEFULL]

Why not sell RE off and hold until prices drop and come back in? I guess the tax liability would be one good reason.

the problem is what to do with the cash????..... history tells the story,... lets say when you were a kid (20) you barried a hundred dollar bill.. now you are 60 and go dig it up.... stagnet money is why people alway want to put money to work.... kinda like having a pair of rabbits...

 

[rivrrts429]

This is a great thread and surprisingly hasn’t been derailed yet. I’ve pretty much sold off everything in the last year and sitting on cash with little, if any, debt and a home soon to be paid off. I’m 42 years old so have a good chunk of time before I’ll retire.

I’m just as dumbfounded as others on where to park my investments and not sit heavy on cash. The markets are so bizarre right now.

 

[2FORCEFULL]

Most unbelievable is the AMOUNT EFFORT it is to use all CAPITals

It's super easy, all you have to do is hit the button above the shift key

 

[2FORCEFULL]

This is a great thread and surprisingly hasn’t been derailed yet. I’ve pretty much sold off everything in the last year and sitting on cash with little, if any, debt and a home soon to be paid off. I’m 42 years old so have a good chunk of time before I’ll retire.

I’m just as dumbfounded as others on where to park my investments and not sit heavy on cash. The markets are so bizarre right now.

X2 here, to add to that, I have a loan out where it looks like they are trying re finance as they ordered a pay off statement

 

[petie6464]

the problem is what to do with the cash????..... history tells the story,... lets say when you were a kid (20) you barried a hundred dollar bill.. now you are 60 and go dig it up.... stagnet money is why people alway want to put money to work.... kinda like having a pair of rabbits...

I get that point however it may be stagnant for a time but to do so with a plan to reinvest would seem to be a solid move.

 

[2Driver]

You can play “what ifs” with quickens retirement planner.

The impact to the portfolio isnt so much savings, spending or return, its inflation. 2 or 3 extra points kicks you in the teeth over the long haul.

 

[CLdrinker]

Am I crazy for hoping for a RE crash?

My job and my wife’s job are both secure and somewhat insulated from large economic swings.

My thoughts are if RE crashes we can pull money out of the stock market for a large down. I will be penalized for the with drawl but buying a second home at .50 cents on the dollar seems like a good long term play.

 

[Canuck 1]

I've always been aaaafraid of Gold because I don't undersand the market... lets say you buy a million in gold... where do you put it??? and what happens when the market crashes???? dosen't it drop the same????.. I know Ted binion had a bunker full of silver out in pahrump,..

Physical gold is for preserving wealth, when the market crashes gold usually rises.

 

[brgrcru]

I am in the same pontoon.
was forced to sell our business . And proptery it was on. Last year.
We did invest a third very modestly. But 2/3 is cash. I have no idea .what do with it.
House is on a 2 .25 note with about 165k left to pay off . I could pay it off tommorow . With out even noticing it.
I could work at Ace to pay mortgage .

One thing I am doing is buying my own transfer rig ,cash . to haul sand and gravel . Just for something to do.
At 55 not working just isn't for me . I tried it it . No Thanks .

One thing for certain , besides my new transfer truck . I am not buying nothing or doing anything to the house .

Where to put the cash . Is on my mind .

 

[lbhsbz]

Why not sell RE off and hold until prices drop and come back in? I guess the tax liability would be one good reason.

Because the buying power of cash might not be shit...so then what? Real estate will always be worth something.

 

[bk2drvr]

If a housing collapse is going to be the big event that takes the economy down I think it will still be awhile. Here’s why the current situation today is different than 08’ in regards to housing. In short, the government is on the front side of this thing keeping the housing market from collapsing. Servicers are allowing missed payments with no late fees or dings to credit via forbearance. The forborn amount can be added to the end of the loan and when the borrower resumes payments their mortgage has stayed the same or gone up just a little. Add ten more years to the loan and quite possibly the monthly payment has gone down. Biden just approved 10 billion in mortgage aid for lower income borrowers to cover expenses and keep people in their homes while they transition back to work. Will it work long term, who knows. But all of this is stalling a collapse.

I’m not saying there won’t be a financial collapse as history does repeat itself, it just won’t be soon due to housing. So if you think you are going to wake up one morning in the next few weeks, six months or even in 2021 ready to pounce on cheap real estate, it’s wishful thinking.

 

[petie6464]

Because the buying power of cash might not be shit...so then what? Real estate will always be worth something.

Maybe, but if the dollar is and almost certainly will be less, are you saying real estate will remain high or decrease in price?

 

[2FORCEFULL]

If a housing collapse is going to be the big event that takes the economy down I think it will still be awhile. Here’s why the current situation today is different than 08’ in regards to housing. In short, the government is on the front side of this thing keeping the housing market from collapsing. Servicers are allowing missed payments with no late fees or dings to credit via forbearance. The forborn amount can be added to the end of the loan and when the borrower resumes payments their mortgage has stayed the same or gone up just a little. Add ten more years to the loan and quite possibly the monthly payment has gone down. Biden just approved 10 billion in mortgage aid for lower income borrowers to cover expenses and keep people in their homes while they transition back to work. Will it work long term, who knows. But all of this is stalling a collapse.

I’m not saying there won’t be a financial collapse as history does repeat itself, it just won’t be soon due to housing. So if you think you are going to wake up one morning in the next few weeks, six months or even in 2021 ready to pounce on cheap real estate, it’s wishful thinking.

total agree.... I think the more scary thing is this... lets say you have 800k in the bank, the house you are looking at is 800k....you buy and then it dumps,... not good... but if you wait and it goes down like before... that house is 400k and your 800k get double buying power... but what I think is this, like you said it will be a while...and like I told people over a yr ago in havasu, get your name on a deed....house went up 30% or more.... more my fear ,or thought is that while you are sitting on money things continue to rise, now the 800k house is 1 mil... the homes for sale on palo verde just took a 10k increase 4/1 that on your lot....my thought is inflation will continue for awhile and the dollar will continue to drop....

 

[2FORCEFULL]

Physical gold is for preserving wealth, when the market crashes gold usually rises.

so you buy gold bars and hide them???

 

[2Driver]

so you buy gold bars and hide them???

Well golds down 9% ytd. So much for gold as an inflation hedge

 

[Canuck 1]

so you buy gold bars and hide them???

1 oz coins but basically yes.

 

[Canuck 1]

Well golds down 9% ytd. So much for gold as an inflation hedge

long term, last few years it was up

 

[rivermobster]

pontoons made there mark because they where cheep ,hauled a lot of people, and easy to own and maintain... that was before the "HEY LAMS" took over,... now they have some how convinced a multitude that they are now luxury Speed boats...LMAO... they're not even boats,.. they're Rafts on beer cans.... but if you're not convince about the luxury speed boat part,... have another glass of the kool-aide... LOL... sorry sir that ones sold... and the news are going up another 20k.... oh my gosh,... where do I sign to be next.... ah,... we have a waiting list,... to be next it will cost 40k

So true!

 

[AZmike]

Everything is ridiculous right now! Have you seen the price of PLYWOOD...

 

[lbhsbz]

Maybe, but if the dollar is and almost certainly will be less, are you saying real estate will remain high or decrease in price?

I’m saying that a piece of dirt with a house will always be a piece of dirt with house, while things printed on paper, while representative of something more, at the end of the day are only really worth the paper they’re printed on.

I think real estate, especially in major cities, will continue to increase in price as the dollar loses value.

 

[rivrrts429]

Well golds down 9% ytd. So much for gold as an inflation hedge

That’s too narrow of a time period. You’re correct it’s down 9% the last year but is up 40% the last five years and a 1,000% the last 30 years.

 

[rivermobster]

I’m saying that a piece of dirt with a house will always be a piece of dirt with house, while things printed on paper, while representative of something more, at the end of the day are only really worth the paper they’re printed on.

I think real estate, especially in major cities, will continue to increase in price as the dollar loses value.

You have to remember people are payment shoppers. If the interest rates DO go up, no one will be able to afford the payments.

At that point...

The value of the property Must come down to make it affordable.

You have to be in it for the long game, if you're planning on property right now, since the prices are though the roof.

It's definitely a seller's market right now.

 

[jet496]

... soon as some one tells them thier house is worth less than what they owe.... they quit paying payments and hang till they are forclosed....

I remember people were dropping the keys off at the banks and walking away because their house lost value during the housing financial crisis in 2008 (I personally knew a couple). I never understood why because they were still earning the same amount of money at work so why couldn't they afford the payment anymore (it's all psychological same as the fear driven shit that's going on now). I told them to just look at historical data & real estate may drop but it always climbs back up & when it does it's pretty big. Unfortunately these people missed out.

 

[DWC]

That’s too narrow of a time period. You’re correct it’s down 9% the last year but is up 40% the last five years and a 1,000% the last 30 years.

It’s interesting at the very least. Pretty solid increase during the crash. Consistent gains since 2018 until it started backing off recently.

 

[HB2Havasu]

Im 40% cash right now and have the same question. The market is speculative priced vs value priced. Jump in now seems risky.

Im looking at some solid utility stocks and some REITs that are tied to premium leisure and gaming resorts and reits tied to logistics commercial buildings ie fed ex, amazon facilities. All pay 5-6% div.

The other cash runs in and out of hard money loans at 9-10%, but most of my cash is sitting idle which is not the place to be. fuck I feel like a squirrel in the road sometimes.

I’m putting all my extra cash into hard commodities. Ie: Gold, Platinum, Oil, Land, etc... If you study other countries that experienced Hyper Inflation due to their government printing money as fast as there presses would allow you definitely do want to have cash or stocks. They will all be worthless when SHTF!!!

 

[petie6464]

You have to remember people are payment shoppers. If the interest rates DO go up, no one will be able to afford the payments.

At that point...

The value of the property Must come down to make it affordable.

You have to be in it for the long game, if you're planning on property right now, since the prices are though the roof.

It's definitely a seller's market right now.

I guess at 59 I'm seeing a opportunity to cash out of some and enjoy what time I have left. Having a bunch of RE to hand down is nice but why not enjoy some of the cash now, not needing a boat, a Can Am a RV garage or a blacksone griddle I will have money to burn. .

 

[PlanB]

House across the street was bought in June of last year for 680k and just went back on the market for 900K. 1900 square foot, RV garage, pool on a 1/3 acre built a couple of years ago. Was used as a rental by the last owners. I guess if they can make 200K why not? Insane for Havasu though...

 

[EmpirE231]

Should have invested in pallets of OSB! Was $13 a sheet when I bought it in July for a project... now $47.

 

[NicPaus]

Housing market finally surpassed 2005 in my hood. My first house I built from ground up sold a week ago for $825K. Sold it in 05 for 770k. In 09 it sold for $433k. See how it looks in 4 years. Check it out on zillow. 1417 w 220th st Torrance. I went partners on it and lived there for 2 years. House was $120K and we subdivided the lot and built 2.

 

[pronstar]

Inventory is down 46% nationwide, with more buyers competing.

There a lotta FOMO going on...since rates are up a bit, it’s a great time to sell but honestly a terrible time to buy.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[2FORCEFULL]

I get that point however it may be stagnant for a time but to do so with a plan to reinvest would seem to be a solid move.

it's all crystal ball,.. what would work good for some, not the others... lets say you have 800 k... house you want is 800k,... if you wait and prices drop,... you win... if they don't you loose... with the current house shortage,... and increase in building prices.. the longer you wait the more you pay, but if you all ready have a couple houses.. and have enough to buy another... , thats where it gets spooky,... to many eggs in one basket..

 

[2FORCEFULL]

the thing on the gold that scares me is you see the signs that say, GOLD, bought and sold here...

 

[petie6464]

it's all crystal ball,.. what would work good for some, not the others... lets say you have 800 k... house you want is 800k,... if you wait and prices drop,... you win... if they don't you loose... with the current house shortage,... and increase in building prices.. the longer you wait the more you pay, but if you all ready have a couple houses.. and have enough to buy another... , thats where it gets spooky,... to many eggs in one basket..

Yes. Lucky I've did most my buying when I came he in the mid early 90's.

Looking at $63,000 houses I can now get $350ish and $103,000 houses that are bringing $500ish. sounds like a sell but with historical rental incomes over $320k +/- ea. it's hard to see selling.

My only problem is time, I most likely will not see another 27 years.

 

[thetub]

people gotta understand that just because it passed 2008 peak prices it must be a bubble ?

but in reality we are now in 2021 that was 10-12 years ago actually 20 years counting the run up from 2001... so its been about 20 years total

i look at prices of 20-30 years ago and say wow "coulda bought that for 200,000 now costs 1,000,000 shoulda bought"

real estate historically should appreciate 3-4 percent a year... but nowadays with population growth ,giant investment groups and building costs dont see it getting any cheaper...

my 1 cent on it

and i dont think they can really raise interest rates too high ever again... economy would collapse... maybe 1 percent if anything

 

[2FORCEFULL]

people gotta understand that just because it passed 2008 peak prices it must be a bubble ?

but in reality we are now in 2021 that was 10-12 years ago actually 20 years counting the run up from 2001... so its been about 20 years total

i look at prices of 20-30 years ago and say wow "coulda bought that for 200,000 now costs 1,000,000 shoulda bought"

real estate historically should appreciate 3-4 percent a year... but nowadays with population growth ,giant investment groups and building costs dont see it getting any cheaper...

my 1 cent on it

and i dont think they can really raise interest rates too high ever again... economy would collapse... maybe 1 percent if anything

pretty sure raising corp tax to recoop 3 trillion for infastructure will do it first...

 

[pronstar]

Prices and payments are two different things.

People buy based on payment. Loans are issued in the ability to make the payment.

Payments are still low relative to 2008.
Low interest rates increase buying power.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[78Southwind]

I remember people were dropping the keys off at the banks and walking away because their house lost value during the housing financial crisis in 2008 (I personally knew a couple). I never understood why because they were still earning the same amount of money at work so why couldn't they afford the payment anymore (it's all psychological same as the fear driven shit that's going on now). I told them to just look at historical data & real estate may drop but it always climbs back up & when it does it's pretty big. Unfortunately these people missed out.

I think most of those that weren't speculators dropped the keys off because variable loan rates went up causing the payments to increase (I know some were able to refinance into a fixed rate but not all). One of my friends had a variable rate pick your payment mortgage. You can make the minimum payment, which falls short of covering the total interest payment. You can make an interest-only payment. You can make a "regular" payment, which will include the interest and some of the principal and is designed to pay the mortgage off in 30 years. Or, you can choose to pay a larger than normal payment and pay the mortgage off in 15 years. Which one do you think he picked? Yep, the negative loan payment because that's what he could afford (interest rates went up and so did the payment).